STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAB REPORT
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 26th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
____________________________________
***** Thursday, 2/26/15 NCAA College Basketball Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
__________________________________________
Thursday's Notebook
•Michigan Statewon and covered last four games, but three of those contests were on road; Spartans are 2-5 as home favorites- six of their seven home games were decided by 6 or less points or in OT. Minnesota lost its last three games by 19-6-10 points; four of its seven road losses are by 10+. They are 2-3-1 as road underdogs. Gophers are forcing turnovers 23% of time, best in conference. Big Ten home favorites of 8+ points are 7-19 versus spread.
•Road teamis 13-1 versus spread in Tennessee's SEC games; Vols are 2-5 in SEC home games, 0-5 as home favorites- they lost last three tilts overall, scoring 53.3 ppg. Tennessee (+4.5) won 76-73 in OT at Vanderbilt Feb 11, after they trailed by 4 with 0:10 left in regulation. Commodores won four of last five games, covering all five-- they're 3-3 as road underdogs. SEC home teams are 8-19-1 versus spread in games where the spread was 3 or less points.
•Drexel(+4) won 66-62 at Delaware Jan 17, holding Blue Hens to 4-19 on arc in game they led by 12 at half. Game started Dragons on 7-1 run, but they've lost last three games since by 24-4-10 points, giving up 82 ppg. Blue Hens covered eight of last ten as an underdog, are 6-1 as road dogs, with road losses by 13-1-6-12 points. Drexel won four of last five home games, is 1-2 as a home favorite. CAA home teams are 10-13 versus spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.
•Louisiana Tech (+4) won 58-45 in El Paso Jan 8, holding Miners to 12 second half points in game that was tied at half. Tech won seven of its last nine games, is 3-3 as home favorite- they're 6-0 SU at home, with its last four wins all by 11+ points. UTEP won last seven games, with five of seven wins by 7 or less points; they're 5-2 on C-USA road, losing by 5 at WKU, 7 at Marshall. C-USA home teams are 28-16-1 in games where spread was 5 or less points.
•Memphis (+8) lost 73-59 at SMU Jan 8; Mustangs shot 56.5% inside the arc, were +16 on boards. Tigers won and covered last three games, are 5-2 SU in AAC home games, losing to Tulane/Temple. SMU won its last four games; underdogs are 5-2 versus spread in its AAC road games- Mustangs are 2-4 as road favorites. Memphis is holding foes to 28.3% from arc SMU leads AAC, making 37.3% from arc. Home teams are 8-4-1 in AAC games where spread was 3 or less points.
•UCSB(+2.5) lost 70-64 at Cal-Davis after leading by five with 9:50 left; Hawkins was 6-8 from arc, had 28 for Aggies, who've won seven games in row, are 3-1 as road underdogs, with only loss at Hawai'i by 8. UCSB won four of last five games, is 2-3 as home favorite, with wins by 8-19-1-15 points. UCSB star Williams returned for last two games, scored 13.5 ppg; he is a difference-maker for the Gauchos. Big West home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-4-2 versus spread.
•Utah (-4.5) won 76-59 at Arizona State Jan 15, making 9-17 on arc and scoring 1.27 ppp; Utes are 5-1-1 as home favorites, with all seven home wins by 15+ points- they host Arizona Saturday, have to avoid looking past ASU squad that won its last three games, is 2-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 24-8-3-19-3 points, with wins at Washington and Cal. Utah leads pac-12, making 40.7% on arc; ASU is 9th in league at defending 3's. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 12-6-2 versus spread.
•St Mary's played its heart out Saturday in home loss to Gonzaga, now hits road to face San Francisco squad they beat 69-56 (-6) Dec 29, with Gaels were +7 in turnovers (14-7), shot 62.5% inside arc. Gaels split last six games, are 4-0 as WCC road favorites, winning away games by 9-9-7-10-7 points, with losses at Gonzaga/BYU. USF won last three games, but lost three of last four at home- they covered four of last five as a dog. WCC home underdogs of 3 or less points are 6-4 versus spread.
•Wofford (-7) nipped Mercer 49-46 at home Jan 31, in a low-possession (49) brickfest- both teams were 4-17 from arc. Terriers won three in row, 10 of last 11 games; they're 6-1 on SoCon road, with loss at Citadel their worst game of year. Mercer split its last four games; four of its last five home games were decided by 5 or less points. Home teams are 45-35 SU in SoCon, ranking 23rd of 32 leagues in home win %. SoCon home teams are 6-15 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.
•North Dakota State scored last eight points of game, made 11-22 on arc in 72-66 (-4.5) win over Oral Roberts in Summit opener Jan 2 Titans lost in spite of going 10-15 from arc. Bison led 21-6 early on. ORU lost three of last five games, is 1-5 as a home favorite. ND State won seven of its last eight games, is 4-3 on Summit road, with two of four wins in OT. Bison's only loss in last eight games was at South Dakota State by 10. Summit League home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-11-1 versus spread.
•Monmouth(+4.5) won 55-54 at Rider Jan 12, after trailing by nine with 14:31 left; Broncs were +18 in rebounds (44-26), -7 in turnovers (16-9). Hawks won four of last five games, with four of five decided by 5 or less points- they're 2-4-1 as home favorites. Rider won nine of last 12 games, is 4-1 as road underdog, with road losses by 13 at Iona, 7 at Siena. Rider is worst foul shooting team in league, but defends the 3's best in MAAC. MAAC home favorites of 3 or less points are 8-11 versus spread.
•Eastern Illinois was 6-0 in OVC when Murray State (-5) beat them 77-62 Jan 22; Panthers were 5-24 from arc, Murray shot 56% inside arc in game they never trailed. Eastern lost six of last nine games, is 3-2-1 as road dog four of its last six games were decided by 8 or less points. Murray is 2-6 versus spread in its last eight games, 3-4 as home favorite; this is Senior Night for highly successful team with three senior starters. OVC home favorites of 9+ points are 7-13 versus spread.
•Montana is in three-way race with Eastern Washington/Sacramento for top seed in Big Sky; winner hosts Big Sky tournament. Grizzlies won its last five games, three by 11+ points; they're 4-2 on Big Sky road, winning last road game in triple OT. Idaho (+7) lost 70-56 at Montana Feb 7, making 65% of 2-points shots, with +7 (17-10) turnover ratio. Griz forces TOs 21.8% of time, best in Big Sky. Big Sky home teams are 15-20 in games where spread was 3 or less points.
________________________________________
StatSystems Sports
Your #1 Source for Winning Information
StatSystemsSports.net takes pride in providing the average player with an edge by building a full in-depth analysis of football, basketball and baseball games. All aspects of games are considered. These include; but are not limited to, injuries, weather, playing surface, team chemistry, individual match-ups, line moves, scheduling, fatigue, statistical analysis, trend analysis, etc. The better prepared you are - The better chance you have of winning, plain and simple.
Get the most sought after plays in the industry today! Call us today for a 1 Day VIP Pass - $29.00, 7 Day VIP Pass - $149.00, or get our most popular 30 Day VIP Package for just $499.00.
P.S. If you're looking to acquire the extra insider edge, look no further than our Daily StatSystems NBA & NCAA College Basketball Reports providing you the most up to date information on injuries, line moves, in-game betting and everything sports betting related.
"You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
_________________________
•Situational Trends of The Day
--TEXAS ST is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS ST 57.3, OPPONENT 65.1.
--IUPU-FT WAYNE is 12-0 OVER (+12.0 Units) in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IUPU-FT WAYNE 83.2, OPPONENT 74.7.
--MURRAY ST is 18-1 (+20.1 Units) against the money line after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MURRAY ST 79.5, OPPONENT 69.4.
--APPALACHIAN ST is 7-23 (-18.3 Units) against the 1rst half line after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was APPALACHIAN ST 27.3, OPPONENT 34.8.
--GEORGIA ST is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GEORGIA ST 33.1, OPPONENT 27.1.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
--RICE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was RICE 65.6, OPPONENT 66.4.
--ST MARYS-CA is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST MARYS-CA 61.6, OPPONENT 63.5.
--CS-NORTHRIDGE is 3-12 (-22.0 Units) against the money line versus poor shooting teams - making <=42% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CS-NORTHRIDGE 68.7, OPPONENT 69.8.
--N COLORADO is 0-11 (-12.1 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was N COLORADO 28.0, OPPONENT 37.2.
--PURDUE is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was PURDUE 29.0, OPPONENT 26.5.
•Situational Analysis of The Day
--Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WRIGHT ST) - a good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game on the season, revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a road favorite, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record.
(32-7 since 1997.) (82.1%, +24.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (33-7)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.6
The average score in these games was: Team 69.7, Opponent 64.5 (Average point differential = +5.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (40.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
_______________________________________________
Thursday's Top Action
Systems Analyst James Vogel
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS(13-14) @ OHIO ST BUCKEYES (19-8)
Value City Arena - Columbus, OH
Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:00 PM EST
Sportsbook.ag Line: Ohio State -14.5
After being embarrassed at home on Sunday, Nebraska visits Ohio State trying to end a five game skid. It was only a year ago that Nebraska was the surprise team in the conference, as they picked up their first NCAA berth since 1998. A season built on hope, with leaders returning, has turned into disaster for the Cornhuskers, as they hit a new low in a 28-point home loss to Iowa on Sunday. Following the game, Coach Tim Miles banned his players from all the amenities of Nebraska’s new facilities and from speaking to the media. Nebraska is 1-7 SU (2-6 ATS) in their last 8 games. Furthermore, they haven’t won a conference game on the road all season (0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS).
Coach Thad Matta’s host Buckeyes are also not playing their best ball of the season, having lost their last two (at Michigan State, at Michigan). The most recent loss to Michigan on Sunday, 64-57, was highlighted by sloppy play (9:14 A:TO ratio), and a first half that saw Ohio State fall 16 points down, rendering them unable to come all the way back for the road win. The Buckeyes return home to the friendly confines of Value City Arena where they are undefeated since the calendar flipped to 2015 (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS), with their lone conference home loss coming in late December to Iowa.
Historically, since Nebraska joined the Big Ten (2011) Ohio State has dominated this matchup, going 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS), and 3-0 in Value City Arena. The most recent game between these two teams was in the 2014 Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis, where Ohio State rallied from an 18-point second-half deficit to win. Nebraska’s lone win in this series was last season, in late January, when they defeated the then No. 17 Buckeyes in Lincoln, 68-62. Nebraska’s outlook for this contest, and the rest of the season, is shockingly dim, as Coach Miles realized that his players needed a wake-up call with the facilities and media ban after the home loss to Iowa. The Cornhuskers will surely be underdogs in Columbus, and are 1-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS) as road underdogs this season. At the root of their issues all season is putting the ball in the basket (61.7 PPG, 13th in Big Ten, 306th in NCAA).
Nebraska is even worse on the road (55.2 PPG). Considering the Cornhuskers boast two of the conferences better offensive players in F Terran Petteway (18.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.9 APG) and G Shavon Shields (15.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 45% FG), Nebraska’s offensive issues become that much more mysterious. The fact of the matter is that they don’t have anything close to a third reliable offensive option. Maybe F Walter Pitchford (7.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.3 threes/game) can fill that role. Pitchford likes to roam the perimeter, and has pitched in double-digit scoring in three straight games, after only going above 10 points once in his previous 12 conference games.
After Pitchford, though, no Cornhusker has scored in double figures in any of Nebraska’s last five losses, and only one player (F Tarin Smith – 4.3 PPG) has scored more than five points in a game in that span. Besides the rare outburst from deep (10 threes at Maryland), the Cornhuskers have been awful from three (27% 3PT, 14th in Big Ten, 343rd in NCAA) in conference play. Nebraska relies on its slow pace and defense (62 PPG allowed, 5th Big in Ten, 69th in NCAA) to keep games close, in hopes that Petteway or Shields can make big pressure shots down the stretch. That said, their field goal defense (50% versus Iowa, 47% at Maryland) in recent games hasn’t been fearsome at all.
As star freshman G D’Angelo Russell (19 PPG, 5.4 APG, 5.8 APG) has gone this season, so goes Ohio State. Russell struggled in the state of Michigan the past two weekends, only averaging 13 points on 36% FG. Russell also committed more turnovers than assists (2:5 A:TO) at Michigan for the first time since early January. F Sam Thompson (10.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG) and F Jae’Sean Tate (8.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG) both shoot it well from the field (49% for Thompson, 58% for Tate) and both boast double-figure scoring potential nightly, they just need more opportunities to score. The biggest mystery with the Buckeye offense is the disappearance of senior G Shannon Scott (7.6 PPG, 6.1 APG, 1.6 SPG). Scott is a pure point guard who’s been forced to play off the ball for long stretches as Matta funnels his offense through Russell. Not a knockdown shooter, this has forced Scott into some major struggles on offense in the past month (5.7 PPG, 3.8 APG, 32% FG, 22% 3PT in last six games).
F Marc Loving (10.9 PPG) had started for most of the season, but is working his way back slowly into the rotation after a recent suspension and has been a non-factor in the past two contests (4 points in 17 minutes versus Michigan). If exciting freshman F Keita Bates-Diop (4.5 PPG, 0.8 BPG) can continue impressing in limited minutes (12 points in 19 minutes at Michigan) he could provide Matta with another dimension on both ends of the floor with his length, versatility, and potential. If Ohio State can glean anything from Iowa’s victory over Nebraska, it’s that the Cornhuskers aren’t playing great defense at the moment. As long as the Buckeyes can control the pace, their 49.7% FG (1st in Big Ten, 5th in NCAA) would seem to indicate that their offensive woes should come to an end now that they’re back in Columbus versus a very vulnerable opponent.
ARIZONA WILDCATS (24-3) @ COLORADO BUFFALOES (12-14)
Coors Events Center – Boulder, CO
Tip-Off: Thursday, 9:00 PM EST
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -10.5
Colorado tries to post a signature win during a miserable season when it hosts No. 7 Arizona on Thursday night. The Wildcats have ripped off 10 wins in their past 11 games (8-3 ATS), which started with a 68-54 blowout of the Buffaloes on Jan. 15. That was one of Colorado's three losses to top-25 teams this season, as the club was also blown out twice by Utah by margins of 25 and 28 points. The Buffs are 3-9 SU (4-7-1 ATS) in their past 12 games, which includes a 2-3 mark (SU and ATS) at home where they are 10-4 SU (8-5-1 ATS) this season. Arizona is 6-3 SU (5-4 ATS) in true road games this season and is also 12-2 SU (9-5 ATS) with a +17.3 PPG margin after having at least three days of rest. Colorado is 5-6 (SU and ATS) in this heavy rest scenario.
The Wildcats have dominated this series recently with five straight wins SU, all by double-digits and a +16.6 PPG margin, but the Buffaloes hold the 5-3 ATS advantage in the past eight meetings. This includes Colorado SU wins at home in 2012 and 2013, but Arizona rolled to an easy 88-61 road win in this series last February with 57 second-half points, marking its first victory in Boulder since 1973. Arizona is excellent in nearly all facets with 75.6 PPG and only 58.7 PPG allowed for a whopping +16.9 PPG scoring margin. The team outshoots opponents by nearly 10 percent, with an offensive clip of 49.0% FG, while posting a 39.7% FG Pct. on defense. The Wildcats are able to do this with an admirable 1.2 Ast/TO ratio and +2.9 turnover margin. The only areas Arizona's offense isn't particularly strong in are three-point shooting (4.9 per game, 35.3% threes) and foul shooting (68.7% FT). The Wildcats have a very balanced offense with six players averaging at least 22.5 MPG and 8.8 PPG.
The team's scoring leader is freshman swingman Stanley Johnson (14.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG), who shoots 47% FG and 36% threes. He lit up Colorado for a career-high 22 points (7-of-15 FG, 8-of-9 FT) and eight rebounds on Jan. 15, but is coming off his worst offensive showing of his career on Saturday when he made just 1-of-9 FG in the win over UCLA. Junior F Brandon Ashley (11.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG) pulled down a game-high 11 rebounds (4 offensive) to go along with seven points in last month's win versus the Buffaloes. He has also scored 11+ points in eight of his past 10 games, but was dreadful in Saturday's win with just five points on 2-of-10 shooting.
F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (11.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG) shoots 53% FG, but was 1-for-6 FG in Saturday's win and 0-for-3 from the floor in the victory over Colorado earlier this season. But entering Saturday, the sophomore had posted 11+ points in six straight contests where he knocked down 62% of his shots. PG T.J. McConnell (9.9 PPG, 6.0 APG, 3.8 RPG) has a 50% FG clip and a stellar 3.1 Ast/TO ratio this season. He posted a well-rounded eight points, seven rebounds and six assists in the Jan. 15 victory over the Buffaloes, and is riding a five-game streak of double-figure scoring (14.0 PPG). Seven-foot C Kaleb Tarczewski (8.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG) scored 14 points (5-of-7 FG) in just 25 minutes versus Colorado last month, and has 12.3 PPG on 70% FG (14-of-20) with 7.3 RPG in his past three games.
The Buffaloes only real chance in this game is to dominate the glass as it has done so often this season (+4.2 RPG margin). The team also blocks 4.0 shots per game, which helps limit opponents to 65.3 PPG on 41.0% FG. But this is not a good offensive club, averaging a mere 66.7 PPG on 42.4% FG and 35.1% threes. It also holds a minus-1.8 turnover margin with 13.4 turnovers committed per game. The one consistent scorer for Colorado this season is G Askia Booker (17.0 PPG, 3.3 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.4 SPG) who shoots 39% from the floor and 36% from three-point range. Booker scored 30 of his team's 54 points in the loss at Arizona last month, as he drained 11-of-17 shots (6-of-9 threes) with four rebounds and three assists to keep the final score somewhat respectable. Booker will need to improve greatly on Saturday's performance when he made just 2-of-14 FG in the 14-point loss at Oregon State.
C Josh Scott (12.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG) is a presence down low with a soft touch to pull opposing big men away from the rim, and he finally looks healthy after a long absence due to a back injury. Scott didn't play in the loss in Tucson on Jan. 15, but has yanked down 30 rebounds in his past three contests to go along with 7.0 PPG. The team's third option on offense is junior swingman Xavier Johnson (11.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) who is coming off a strong 12-point, nine-rebound effort in Saturday's loss. Johnson did not play versus the Wildcats last month, but faced them three times last season with very different results. After scoring 21 points (7-of-12 FG) in Tucson, he made just 1-of-10 shots at home for five points, before posting a respectable 11 points and five rebounds in the Pac-12 Tournament loss to Arizona last March.
__________________________________________________________
