Service Plays Thursday 2/13/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve's Golf Picks - Northern Trust Open

KEEGAN BRADLEY 30 TO 1
BILL HAAS 25 TO 1
KEVIN NA 60 TO 1
GRAHAM DELAET 22 TO 1
THORBJORN OLESEN 70 TO 1
BRYCE MOLDER - 110 TO 1

Head to Head
2 Unit selection Graham DeLaet over Justin Rose
Keegan Bradley (-105) over Hideki Matsuyama

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northern Trust Open Preview and Picks
by Matt Fargo

After four straight runner-ups to open our golf season, we were finally able to break through with a win last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. It wasn't easy as we expected it to be though as Jimmy Walker was able to hold on for a one shot win after coming into Sunday with a six-shot lead. It was his third career win on tour and all three of those wins have come over his last eight starts. He followed up his last win at the Sony with a missed cut at the Farmers.

The tour stays in California for the Northern Trust Open from famed Riviera Country Club. This is one of the oldest stops on tour as the event goes back to 1940 and Riviera has been the lone host since 1999. It has long been known within golfing circles as "Hogan's Alley" after the legendary Ben Hogan won three times here in a span of 18 months (two L.A. Opens and the U.S. Open sandwiched between). Known for a strong field annually, the event will not disappoint again this year.

Because it is early and with the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championships next week, the Northern Trust Open gets the big names to start their tuneup whether it be just to jumpstart the season or to prepare for next week. It is no walk in the park though. Three years ago, Riviera was ranked as the hardest par 71 of the non-Majors and two years ago it was ranked as the second hardest, with players posting a 72.62 scoring average. Last year it ranked fourth hardest with a 71.85 scoring average.

Creative shot making is important at Riviera as it is not a bombers paradise. Equally important is experience and course knowledge. While John Merrick picked up his first PGA Tour win last year, the Northern Trust Open had not produced a first-time winner since 2002. It was not his first start at Riviera though as he was making his sixth career start here. Basically, we can throw rookies and first timers out of the mix to go with experienced players and ones that like the track.

The favorite is Dustin Johnson (+1,200) but we aren't sure which Johnson shows up. It has been feast or famine here in his six starts at Riviera as starting last year, he has gone Cut, T4, Cut, T3, T10, T59. He is coming off a T2 last week at the AT&T which followed up a T6 in his only other 2014 start. He opened the season in the fall with a win at the WGC-HSBC Champions in November.

We used Hunter Mahan (+2,000) last week and while he was around the whole week, he had some swing issues Sunday but we will grab him again this week. He ended up finishing sixth at Pebble Beach which came after a T4 in Phoenix. This has not been his best event but he does own three top 25's including a career best T8 last year. He hasn't won since April 2012 and he is too good to go this long without a win.

Bill Haas (+2,200) could be flying under the radar here as he has not made a lot of noise yet this year but that is what presents us with value. His last two finishes have been a T43 and a T34 so he doesn't come in hot but he did have a T6 at the Humana Challenge three starts back. He won this event in 2012 which was sandwiched in-between a T3 last year and a T12 in 2011.

Jason Dufner (+3,500) is getting exceptional odds. He is ranked 16th in the world yet there are player ranked much lower that are favored more. Granted he has not had a lot of success here as his best finish is a T29 but he has experience as he has played in the event four times and that experience can go a long way considering he is a much better player now. He finished solo fifth at the Hyundai Tournament of champions.

Charles Howell III (+5,000) has been a letdown for us early in the season as he has been unable to get the job done but has still played very well. He is coming off a T6 at the Waste Management which was his sixth top ten since the fall season began. He has been consistently good and he has a lot of experience here. While his best finish here since 2008 is a T55, he won this event in 2007, his last tour victory.

For a longshot we will go with K.J. Choi (+6,000). He has not been on top of his game for a while now but this is a place he loves. He has never missed a cut at Riviera in 13 starts and while his last two finishes have been a T33 and T24, he does own four top sevens including a T3 in 2009. He comes in off a missed cut at the AT&T but he did have a T2 at the Sony so he is definitely capable.

Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the Northern Trust Open.
All for 1 Unit

Hunter Mahan (+2,000)

Bill Haas (+2,200)

Jason Dufner (+3,500)

Charles Howell III (+5,000)

K.J. Choi (+6,000)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PGA Tour stops at Riviera on Thursday
by Freddy Wander

Northern Trust Open

Tees Off: Thursday, February 13th
Riviera Country Club – Pacific Palisades, CA

Odds to Win Tournament

Golfer Odds
Dustin Johnson 12-to-1
Webb Simpson 15-to-1
Matt Kuchar 20-to-1
Jimmy Walker 20-to-1
Graham Delaet 20-to-1
Jordan Spieth 20-to-1
Hunter Mahan 20-to-1
Bill Haas 22-to-1
Keegan Bradley 25-to-1
Justin Rose 25-to-1
Bubba Watson 25-to-1
Ryan Moore 30-to-1
Harris English 30-to-1
Hideki Matsuyama 30-to-1
Jason Dufner 35-to-1
Charl Schwartzel 35-to-1
Jim Furyk 40-to-1
Louis Oosthuizen 45-to-1
Pat Perez 50-to-1
Marc Leishman 50-to-1
Charles Howell III 50-to-1
Rickie Fowler 60-to-1
Kevin Na 60-to-1
Joost Luiten 60-to-1
Kevin Stadler 60-to-1
Ian Poulter 60-to-1
K.J. Choi 60-to-1
Lee Westwood 60-to-1
Thorbjorn Olesen 60-to-1
10 golfers 80-to-1
10 golfers 100-to-1
FIELD (Any other golfer) 3-to-1

The PGA Tour heads to the Pacific Palisades this week to play in the Northern Trust Open, one of the longest running tournaments which first started in 1926. While the Riviera CC is a long 7,349 yards for a par-71 course, players have always been able to score well with the average winning score here being better than 12-under par over the past six years. This has also been a tight tournament with the past two years needing a playoff to decide the winner. John Merrick earned his first PGA Tour win at this course last season when he defeated Charlie Beljan on the second hole of the playoff. The most recent multiple winner here has been Phil Mickelson (2008 and 2009). Let’s take a look at some players who could top the leaderboard in this year’s edition.

Golfers to Watch

Jimmy Walker (20/1): Walker has been the breakout golfer of the 2014 season thus far and is coming off his third win of the season, which also happens to be the first three wins of his career. His putting has been his greatest asset, as he is 10th on tour in putting (1.719 per hole) and is averaging 4.90 birdies per round (4th on tour).

Graham Delaet (20/1): The Canadian has been hovering around the top of the leaderboards in search of his first career PGA Tour victory and has placed in the top-seven in each of his past four events, including two runner-up performances. He has been tremendous in many categories this season; ranking eighth in birdies per round (4.67), fourth in driving distance (306.7), sixth in greens hit in regulation (76.9%) and 7th in total driving. He is poised to take his first win this week.

Harris English (30/1): English has played in this tournament just once so far, placing 51st there last season. Since that time, he has won his first two PGA events and had three other top-11 finishes in his four January events. The 24-year old is one of the longest hitters on tour (299.8 yards per, 25th on tour) and has hit 74.8% of greens in regulation (10th on tour) this season, leading to 4.94 birdies per round (3rd on tour).

Pat Perez (50/1): Perez seems to be coming into his own and is playing some of his best golf since he debuted on the PGA Tour back in 2002. He still has one win under his belt, a victory in the 2009 Bob Hope Classic, but has been close to grabbing his second this season with four top-11 finishes in his past five events where his combined score to par is an impressive 47-under. This includes a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open in late last month. Perez has placed in the top-15 only twice at this event since 2007, but is worthy of a small wager with how well he's played recently.

J.B. Holmes (80/1): Holmes has had a rocky last few years with injuries, playing only one PGA tournament last season while making three starts this year. His results have not been amazing, but they have been encouraging after missing so much time, and include a 23rd place finish in the Farmers Insurance Open. He still uses the John Daly approach of hitting it farther than his opponent, and has averaged 308.2 yards per drive.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Thunder at Lakers

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (+11.5, 206.5)

The Los Angeles Lakers will attempt to avoid being saddled with the longest home losing streak in franchise history when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday. The Lakers lost to the Utah Jazz on Tuesday for their sixth straight home loss, equaling a dismal stretch from the 1992-93 season. Oklahoma City owns the best record in the Western Conference and has been soaring with 14 victories in its last 16 games.

Thunder star Kevin Durant has recorded 32 30-point games this season and the latest effort was a 36-point outing in Tuesday’s victory over the Portland Trail Blazers. Durant has picked us his scoring prowess even more than usual with point guard Russell Westbrook (knee) out and he continues to lead the NBA with a 31.2 scoring average. The injury riddled Lakers will be without point guard Steve Nash (back, hamstring) and second-leading scorer Nick Young (knee) but point guard Steve Blake (elbow) is expected to play.

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma City opened -11 and was bet up to -11.5. The total opened 207 and dropped to 206.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Thunder (-14.5) - Lakers (+1.0) + Home Court (-3.0) = Thunder -12.5

INJURY WATCH: Thunder - Russell Westbrook (Out - knee). Lakers - Steve Blake (Prob. - arm), Xavier Henry (Out - knee), Pau Gasol (Out - groin), Steve Nash (Out - leg), Nick Young (Out - knee), Kobe Bryant (Out - knee)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "From our standpoiint, the love is gone with the lakers. People used to play them regardless and now, depedning on the line, you wont get a bet at all. There is no public love with the lakers. No loyalty. Durant has caught that public interest for OKC, even more so than the Heat because you don't know who the Heat are going to start from one night to the next. The thunder are by far the most popular play right now." - Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook manager Atlantis Reno.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Five of the (Lakers') top six scorers sat out Tuesday vs. the Jazz, their record-tying sixth straight at home. The sixth, Pau Gasol, is still rumored to be dealt. This is easily the worst team out West." - Bryan Power.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (42-12 SU, 32-22 ATS, 27-27 O/U): Few people thought Oklahoma City could sail into the All-Star break with the best record in the West with Westbrook out but that is indeed the case. “We’re a resilient team,” Durant said after the win over Portland. “We’ve kept our heads up through adversity and tough times. That’s just how we are as an organization.” Guard Reggie Jackson (13.6) has expanded his game with Westbrook out and reserve Jeremy Lamb (10 points per game) has added scoring punch off the bench.

ABOUT THE LAKERS (18-34 SU, 27-24-1 ATS, 28-24 O/U): Nash’s injury issues have started a clamor in which observers and fans are calling on him to retire. The 40-year-old Nash is under contract for next season and he told reporters on Wednesday that he isn’t paying any attention to the opinions about his future. “I’m kind of oblivious to the noise,” Nash said. “I think after 18 years, you’re not really as affected by it anyways. I didn’t pound my chest when people told me I was great for a long time in my career and I’m not going to let it affect me when people think that I should look at myself in the mirror.”

TRENDS:
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Thunder are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference.
* Thunder are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.

CONSENSUS: 61 percent of bets are on the Thunder (-11.5) and 65 percent are on the Over 206.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Olympic Hockey Cheat Sheet

Here's a look at Thursday's Olympic Men's Hockey Action:

Finland vs. Austria (+1,300)

The Finns (+1,300 to win gold) are no longer the elite threat they once were, thanks in large part to an aging cluster of stars. Teemu Selanne is the most notable of the greybeards, competing in his sixth and final Olympic tournament to cap a Hall of Fame career. Injuries to Mikko Koivu and Valtteri Filppula leave the offense in the hands of a young corps that includes Minnesota forward Mikael Granlund and Florida center Aleksander Barkov, who join veterans Olli Jokinen, Jussi Jokinen and Tuomo Ruutu. The goaltending trio is the strongest of any team in the tournament, with Tuukka Rask leading the way.

Austria (+150,000) hasn't finished better than 12th at the Games since NHL players began participating - and doesn't appear to be in good shape of cracking the top-10 with a roster consisting largely of domestic club teams. The forward corps boasts the only three NHLers on the team - Islanders teammates Thomas Vanek and Michael Grabner and Philadelphia Flyers rookie Michael Raffl. The remainder of the roster has plenty of experience playing together, but has yet to prove itself on the international stage and will be hard-pressed to keep up with a talented Finnish side.

NOTES
* Finland has medaled in four of the last five Olympic competitions.
* Vanek ranks fourth on the Islanders in points (40), while Grabner is seventh (20).
* Selanne has 20 goals and 17 assists in 31 career games in the Olympics.
* None of the Austrian netminders (Bernhard Starkbaum, Rene Swette, Fabian Weinhandl) was drafted by an NHL team.

Russia vs. Slovenia (+2,000)

The host Russians (+200) are considered a co-favorite, along with Canada, to take home the gold. Few teams will be able to match the firepower of a Russian forward collection that includes NHL goal-scoring leader Alex Ovechkin, former scoring champion Evgeni Malkin, former NHL superstar Ilya Kovalchuk and ex-Nashville Predators sniper Alexander Radulov. The defense is suspect - led by Montreal Canadiens teammates Andrei Markov and Alexei Emelin - while the goaltending crew is anchored by Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky.

The Slovenians (+200,000) face the longest odds of any team in the competition - and it's almost unfair that they have to open the tournament against the powerhouse Russians. Slovenia's first-ever taste of Olympic hockey will be a moment to savor, but the chances of the country putting up any semblance of a fight are remote. The country does have one NHL player on the roster - and it's a rather good one in Los Angeles Kings forward Anze Kopitar. But he shouldn't expect to get much help from a team made up of players from leagues in 10 different countries.

NOTES
* Ovechkin has 40 goals, nine more than runner-up Phil Kessel.
* Kopitar leads the Kings with 47 points (17 goals, 30 assists).
* The Russian roster features 15 players from the NHL and 10 from the KHL.
* Slovenia qualified for its first Games appearance by winning an Olympic qualification tournament last February.

Slovakia vs. United States (-333)

Optimism abounds for the Slovaks (+4,000), who are on the periphery of medal contention but are bolstered by one of the strongest rosters in their history. Led by Marian Gaborik and Marian Hossa, Slovakia boasts a talented - and potentially underrated - group of forwards who should excel on the larger ice surface. The defense is led by towering Boston Bruins hulk Zdeno Chara, an all-world talent who can change the complexion of a game by himself. Jaroslav Halak and Peter Budaj provide a solid 1-2 punch in goal.

The Americans aren't considered in the same class of contenders as Canada or Russia, but sleep on them at your peril. They possess one of the fastest and most versatile forward groups in the competition, led by 31-goal man Kessel, Chicago Blackhawks superstar Patrick Kane, snipers Zach Parise and Max Pacioretty and bruisers David Backes and Dustin Brown. The Ryan Suter-led defense is deep, while the goaltending trio of Jonathan Quick, Ryan Miller and Jimmy Howard should keep games close.

NOTES
* Slovakia finished fourth at the 2010 games in Vancouver, its best-ever result.
* The United States has just two podium finishes - both silver medals - since its 1980 Miracle on Ice gold.
* Halak is 11th in the NHL in goals-against average among qualifying netminders (2.26), but just 23rd in save percentage (.915).
* Kessel (65 points) and Kane (63) are fourth and fifth, respectively, in the NHL scoring race.

Canada vs. Norway (+2,000)

The Canadians (+175) come in ready to defend the title they won on Sidney Crosby's "golden goal" on home soil four years earlier. Crosby returns to lead the most dominant and explosive offense in the tournament; he'll have plenty of help from Blackhawks star Jonathan Toews, Islanders center John Tavares and Anaheim Ducks duo Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. A big, physical defense led by Duncan Keith and Jay Bouwmeester will make life miserable for opposing forwards, while Carey Price and Roberto Luongo form an impressive - if inconsistent - net tandem.

The odds of a podium finish are remote for the Norwegians (+20,000), but they're capable of putting a good scare into any team in the tournament. They boast a disciplined forward corps led by New York Rangers phenom Mats Zuccarello, and will almost certainly adopt a defensive system designed to limit opposition chances while looking for a chance to counterattack. The defense is guided by former NHLer Ole-Kristian Tollefsen, while the goaltending situation borders on dire - particularly if Norway struggles to contain opposing forwards.

NOTES
* Canada employs the top three NHL scorers in Crosby (78), Getzlaf (67) and Tavares (66).
* Zuccarello has 15 goals and 28 assists in 58 games with the Rangers.
* The Canadians are returning 11 players who led the club to gold in Vancouver.
* Norwegian forward Patrick Thoresen, another former NHLer, had 18 points in eight games at the World Championships in 2012.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Selanne handicaps Olympic teams
By JUSTIN HARTLING

On Canada and the USA: “Same style. They play the same way. Only difference is that Canada could put in three teams of the same quality. They are the only country that could do that.”

On Russia: “We always hope that, because there is only one puck, that they’re going to be in trouble. I don’t think anyone can match their talent, but it’s a team sport. There is still only one puck.”

On Sweden: “Very deep. Veeery deep. On the big ice surface, I’m almost thinking they’re going to be, if not top, maybe a top-two favourite.”

On Team Finland: “If anyone takes us lightly, they’re in trouble. In one game, we can beat anybody. Always, our mindset is to outwork the other team. Maybe we don’t have so much talent, or so many superstars, but we don’t have same problems as Canada. They have on all four lines, guys who play 25 minutes a game (in the NHL). Every power play, every situation. Now, you play 12-13 minutes.”

(Selanne is experiencing an identical reduction in ice time in Anaheim this season. At age 43 his ice time has dipped below 14 minutes a night.)

“It’s the old story: the more you play, the better you play. There is not 20 minutes for everybody. It will hurt some guys.”

On choosing an Olympic dark horse: “I’m not sure if there is one, but (he’ll take) the Swiss. A couple of years ago, in the World Championship, they were in the final.”

On the bigger international ice: “You can’t dominate with strength and toughness. If you go for the big hit, you’re already going to be late for the next play. You can’t dump the puck. (There is) more time, more skill involved. It’s a big advantage to those of us who grew up on it. It’s harder to score. (In the NHL), if you beat someone one-on-one, you almost (always) have a scoring chance.If you beat him one-on-one coming off the boards, you are three, four steps away from the net. (On international ice), when you take the (defenceman) wide, you still have a long way to go to the net. The angles are so much worse.”

In the end, Selanne’s record number of international games over all the years have left him sure about one thing: The National Hockey League has become the great equalizer in international hockey. No longer are the Russians sending pros to play against our amateurs; no longer is half of Finland’s roster stocked with players off of Finnish Elite League rosters. “We play in the same league,” Selanne says. “We all come from here. We went to Torino, Nagano… We all come from NHL. We know they’re not better than us. If we play a better game, that night, we’re going to win.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Canada looks to repeat big 2010 result versus Norway

The Canadian men's hockey team will open its Sochi Olympics versus Norway Thursday.

They also opened their 2010 Olympics - almost four years ago to the day - against the Norwegians and won 8-0.

Bet365 lists the puckline at -4.5 with Canada -125. The total is 6.5 with the Over -139 and Under +110.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Three NCAA tournament long shots that deserve a long look
By CHASE RUTTIG

Striking it big in March means shopping for value in February. With conference play coming to a close and the madness on the way, now is the best time to play the NCAA tournament futures odds.

If you're looking for some live long shots to have their "One Shining Moment" at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, these three programs are packed with potential and perhaps profits.

UCLA Bruins (+6,000)

Sitting second in the Pac-12, you won't find better value than UCLA when you look at their offensive numbers. Under first-year head coach Steve Alford, the Bruins sit in the Top 25 in points per game (82.9%, 13th), field goal percentage (49%, 11th), 3-point percentage (39.5%, 22nd), and free-throw percentage (75%, 19th). Blessed with a wide array of perimeter shooters and an up-tempo style, UCLA is the type of team that can run through the tournament if it gets hot.The Bruins have played tough teams in Duke and Arizona this season, so they will be well prepared come March.

Texas Longhorns (+7,500)

After struggling earlier in the season, the Longhorns have compiled an impressive tournament resume since Big 12 play tipped off. Wins over top teams in Iowa State, Kansas, and Oklahoma State have proven that Texas can hang with elite talent as the Longhorns have stepped up their play over the past 10 games. Sitting fifth in the NCCA in rebounding with 42.4 per game, the Longhorns' length and athleticism have already frustrated some tournament favorites. That can't be ignored when looking at underdogs that can make a run.

Pittsburgh Panthers (+7,500)

Losses to Duke and Virginia may have cooled off Pittsburgh's stock slightly, but the Panthers make this list based on their strong defense. They're currently holding opponents to a 60 points per game on 40.1 percent shooting. Those are very good defensive numbers and could frustrate opponents come tournament time. If leading scorer Lamar Patterson (17.2 PPG) can help the offense do its job, while the defense keeps teams off the scoreboard, Pitt could be poised to make a deep run.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Carlos Boozer, Chicago - Prob Thurs


Chicago Bulls F Boozer missed the last three games with a strained left calf but is expected to play Thursday against the Nets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Denver Money

Olympic Hockey Plays

WOMENS
1* Germany +130

MENS
1* Austria +3.5 -115
2* Slovenia / Russia - Over 6.5 -135
2* Canada -4.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot Under bet Bulls even better versus Atlantic
Andrew Avery

The Chicago Bulls are one of the top Under bets in the league at 20-31 O/U this season.

With an average of just 92.3 points per game, the Bulls are ahead of just the lowly Milwaukee Bucks (92.2 ppg) in terms of the lowest scoring teams in the NBA.

If that weren't enough, the Bulls have gone Under in seven straight games against teams from the Atlantic Division. The Bulls host the Brooklyn Nets with a total of 182.5 Thursday night.

 

[BuzzKill]

FYI: Up-to-date newsletters are available in the Newsletter Thread in the Rubber Room.

 

[cowboyup]

Sports Investors (He unbelievably went 6-1 Wednesday, of course he would since he was shit all week and I decided to fade all his plays tonight, documented). Here are his Northern Trust Open PGA futures, (He is pretty good in golf btw)

Deleat 20/1
Keegan 30/1
Haas 25/1
Mahan 22/1

all for .25 unit each

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
St. Johns -1 over Seton Hall
(System Record: 45-6, lost last game)
Overall Record: 45-60-2

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Lyon + Lens OVER 2.5
This match is happening in France
(System Record: 524-18, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 524-450-75

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/13/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 2/13/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting News & Notes Week #16
It’s a long NBA season and for many teams they’re in the thick of the doldrums battling through injuries and, in some cases, just trying to put a healthy lineup on the floor. But the All-Star Break is upon us and it couldn’t come at a better time for some clubs. StatSystems Sports Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor looks at five teams who can really use the break and what it could mean for their fortunes going forward.

•Denver Nuggets (24-26 SU, 22-28 ATS)
Randy Foye and Quincy Miller were the starting backcourt for the Denver Nuggets Monday night versus Indiana. The duo scored nine (all by Foye) and the Nuggets promptly lost by 39 points, their third loss SU and ATS in a row. Ty Lawson should be back after the break, which will help. Seven of their next 10 games are at home and the Nuggets are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the previous meetings against those teams they’ll be facing in the Mile High City.

•Los Angeles Lakers (18-33 SU, 27-23-1 ATS)
The Lakers would’ve probably traded Pau Gasol by now but he’s damaged goods, along with almost everyone else on the roster. We all knew it was going to be a long year in Tinsel Town but nobody expected it to be compounded by the amount of injuries they’ve faced. It doesn’t look like they’ll be any healthier after the All-Star break either and with five games in eight days coming out of the weekend. And who knows if Kobe Bryant will return at all? Los Angeles’ season could get a little worse before it gets better – if that’s possible.

•Memphis Grizzlies (27-23 SU, 23-26-1 ATS)
The Grizzlies were humming along nicely until they lost point guard Mike Conley. Now, after winning 11 of 12 and going 8-4 ATS, Memphis has lost three of four SU and ATS, averaging less than 84 points per game since Conley went down. Seven of the Grizzlies’ 10 games after the break are against sub .500 teams and if they’re to make a run at the playoffs, this may be the time with Conley expected back in the lineup.

•San Antonio Spurs (37-15 SU, 24-28 ATS)
Of all the teams mentioned, the Spurs probably need the break the most. They are still very much in the thick of things out West but have struggled with key members missing games with niggling injuries. The days off should do the Spurs well and with three games left on their Rodeo Road Trip before returning home for three, the time might be ripe for the Spurs to go on a bit of a run.
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Thursday's Match-ups

#501 BROOKLYN @ #502 CHICAGO
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, TNT - Line: Bulls -4, Total: 183) - The Chicago Bulls began a key three-game stretch with a victory on Tuesday and will look to move another game above .500 when they host the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday. The Bulls have an opportunity to gain some positioning advantages in the Eastern Conference and leaped over the Atlanta Hawks and into fourth place with a 100-85 home triumph in their return after a 3-3 road trip. The Nets are trying to track down Chicago and Atlanta in the East.

The Bulls will take a long break following Thursday for the All-Star weekend but get right back to it with a key trip to Toronto after the break and visits to Miami and Atlanta the following week. Chicago’s winning formula on Tuesday included a triple-double from All-Star Joakim Noah and another big game from Taj Gibson. Brooklyn would prefer not to get into an interior battle with the Bulls but won a jump-shooting contest with the Charlotte Bobcats 105-89 on Wednesday as Paul Pierce knocked down 9-of-11 from the field, including 5-of-5 from beyond the arc.

•ABOUT THE NETS (24-26 SU, 25-25-0 ATS): Brooklyn is as close as its been to .500 since the first month of the season and is 1 1/2 games shy of the Bulls in the East standings. The easy win over the Bobcats was the fourth in five games for the Nets and once again highlighted the strength of the bench, which put up 45 points and allowed the starters to sit the entire fourth quarter. No starter has played more than 28 minutes in either of the last two games as players like Mirza Teletovic, Mason Plumlee and Andrei Kirilenko take on larger roles in support of the aging and banged-up core.

•ABOUT THE BULLS (26-25 SU, 24-27-0 ATS): The Nets need all the rest they can get before playing Chicago, which is second in the league in scoring defense thanks to a physical presence on the inside and on the perimeter. The Bulls banged Brooklyn around and held the Nets to 35.2 percent shooting in a 95-78 road win on Dec. 25. They used a similar tactic against the Hawks on Tuesday but also turned in a rare efficient effort offensively with Noah collecting 19 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists. “Offensively, for the last 25 games or so (Noah’s) been in a great rhythm,” Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters. “He’s doing a lot of great things for us, making plays.”

•PREGAME NOTES: The road team has taken the last three in the series, with the Nets earning a 95-92 victory in their last trip to Chicago in Game 6 of the playoffs last spring before falling in Game 7 at home.... Bulls F Carlos Boozer (calf) missed the last three games but is expected to return on Thursday.... Brooklyn is 15-0 when holding its opponent under 95 points.... The Bulls are 23-8 Under when playing against a team with a losing record this season.... The Nets are 38-56 versus the spread after a game where they covered the spread over the last three seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the spread 546 times, while CHICAGO covered the spread 431 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO won the game straight up 521 times, while BROOKLYN won 443 times. In 1000 simulated games, 604 games went over the total, while 375 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

--In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the first half line 521 times, while CHICAGO covered the first half line 439 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 554 games went over first half total, while 415 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BROOKLYN is 38-34 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 39-33 straight up against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--36 of 72 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--CHICAGO is 37-34 versus the first half line when playing against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--39 of 69 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--Over is 3-0-2 in Nets last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

--Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
--Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
--Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
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#503 OKLAHOMA CITY @ #504 LA LAKERS
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, TNT - Line: Thunder -11.5, Total: 207) - The Los Angeles Lakers will attempt to avoid being saddled with the longest home losing streak in franchise history when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday. The Lakers lost to the Utah Jazz on Tuesday for their sixth straight home loss, equaling a dismal stretch from the 1992-93 season. Oklahoma City owns the best record in the Western Conference and has been soaring with 14 victories in its last 16 games.

Thunder star Kevin Durant has recorded 32 30-point games this season and the latest effort was a 36-point outing in Tuesday’s victory over the Portland Trail Blazers. Durant has picked us his scoring prowess even more than usual with point guard Russell Westbrook (knee) out and he continues to lead the NBA with a 31.2 scoring average. The injury-riddled Lakers will be without point guard Steve Nash (back, hamstring) and second-leading scorer Nick Young (knee) but point guard Steve Blake (elbow) is expected to play.

•ABOUT THE THUNDER (42-12 SU, 32-22-0 ATS): Few people thought Oklahoma City could sail into the All-Star break with the best record in the West with Westbrook out but that is indeed the case. “We’re a resilient team,” Durant said after the win over Portland. “We’ve kept our heads up through adversity and tough times. That’s just how we are as an organization.” Guard Reggie Jackson (13.6) has expanded his game with Westbrook out and reserve Jeremy Lamb (10 points) has added scoring punch off the bench.

•ABOUT THE LAKERS (18-34 SU, 27-24-1 ATS): Nash’s injury issues have started a clamor in which observers and fans are calling on him to retire. The 40-year-old Nash is under contract for next season and he told reporters on Wednesday that he isn’t paying any attention to the opinions about his future. “I’m kind of oblivious to the noise,” Nash said. “I think after 18 years, you’re not really as affected by it anyways. I didn’t pound my chest when people told me I was great for a long time in my career and I’m not going to let it affect me when people think that I should look at myself in the mirror.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Oklahoma City has won seven of the past nine meetings.... The Thunder are 16-1 this season when five or more players score in double digits.... The Lakers learned that F/G Xavier Henry, out since Dec. 29 with a knee injury, will miss an additional four weeks.... The Thunder are 8-0 against the spread versus poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... Los Angeles is 13-27 versus the spread when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last three seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 505 times, while LA LAKERS covered the spread 495 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 757 times, while LA LAKERS won 225 times. In 1000 simulated games, 575 games went under the total, while 404 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In 1000 simulated games, LA LAKERS covered the first half line 547 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 562 games went under first half total, while 393 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 44-33 against the spread versus LA LAKERS since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 46-35 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--44 of 79 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-34 versus the first half line when playing against LA LAKERS since 1996.
--42 of 79 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Thunder are 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Thunder are 4-1 ATS L5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 Thursday games.
--Under is 4-1 in Thunder L5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

--Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 8-1 in Lakers L9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Crusher
St. Johns -1 over Seton Hall
(System Record: 45-6, lost last game)
Overall Record: 45-60-2

Rest of the Day
Temple +14 over Louisville
Rider +3.5 over Manhattan
Youngstown State +1.5 over Wisconsin Green Bay

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's NBA TNT doubleheader: betting news and notes

Before the NBA pauses for the All-Star Weekend, close out the first half of the season with a bang. Here are some handy betting news and notes for Thursday's doubleheader action - Brooklyn at Chicago, and Oklahoma City at Los Angeles.

Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls (-4, 182.5)

-- The Nets rested Kevin Garnett on the second game of a back-to-back earlier this week and were promptly destroyed by the Detroit Pistons, 111-95 Saturday night. “We can’t use it as an excuse that we didn’t have KG out there,” said forward Paul Pierce.” We have to be ready from the jump. We have to be ready to play.” Brooklyn hosted the Charlotte Bobcats Wednesday.

-- Brooklyn’s bench has carried it in its last three games before Charlotte. This includes Monday’s 93-81 win over New Orleans in which Mason Plumlee, Alan Anderson, and Mirza Teletovic accounted for over half the Nets’ points. No Brooklyn starter has scored over 20 points during this three-game span.

-- With a win over the Nets Thursday, the Chicago Bulls could climb as high as the third seed in the Eastern Conference. ‘‘We’re not satisfied with being .500,’’ center Joakim Noah told reporters. ‘‘Our whole mentality is just playing with an edge, playing [with] more of an edge than the other team.’’

-- Power forward Carlos Boozer missed his second game in a row with a calf injury forcing coach Tom Thibodeau to shorten his bench to just eight players in the rotation. Taj Gibson has thrived in Boozer’s absence averaging over 22 points and 10 rebounds per game while the team has gone 2-1 SU and ATS without the former Duke Blue Devil in the lineup. Boozer is expected to return Thursday night.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (+11.5, 205.5)

-- Kevin Durant was seen icing his hip early in the Thunder’s win over Portland but the MVP candidate stayed in the game, as OKC opened up a four game lead over the Trail Blazers atop the Western Conference with the win. Durant did sit out a victory over the Boston Celtics in late January to, reportedly, nurse a sore shoulder.

-- The Thunder were an impressive 7 for 14 from behind the 3-point line versus Portland, continuing a marked improvement from November when they were hitting just over 31 percent from downtown.

-- Lakers point guard Steve Nash doesn’t expect to play Thursday after leaving L.A.’s last game with nerve issues. Nash’s absence left the Lakers with too few players to practice Wednesday, so instead they had a shootaround and video session.

-- The Lakers are currently on a six-game SU home losing streak, the first time this has happened since the 1992-93 season. "It's just frustrating, you know," center Chris Kaman told reporters. "Obviously everybody knows we want to win. It's not like we're out here trying to chase (draft) picks. It's not what we're doing at all, I promise.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

World Class Capper

Olympic Hockey
5* Norway vs Canada - over 6.5 goals @ -125
Starts at 12:00 PM est

NCAAB
3* Wisc Green Bay -1.5 point spread @ -110
Starts at 7:00 PM est

3* Quinnipiac -3.5 point spread @ -110
Starts at 8:30 PM est

NBA
3* Thunder -11.5 point spread @ -110
Starts at 10:35 PM est