STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF REPORT
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #12 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Thursday's Week #12 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#311 E CAROLINA @ #312 CINCINNATI
TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2
Line: East Carolina -3, Total: 68
East Carolina’s inability to handle the elements likely cost the program whatever chance it had at gaining access to a New Year's Eve or New Year's Day bowl game. After being denied their best start in school history, the Pirates look to pull into a first-place tie atop the American Athletic Conference on Thursday evening when they visit Nippert Stadium to take on the Bearcats of Cincinnati. East Carolina took a five-game winning streak into Temple on November 1st, but lost five fumbles and committed 12 penalties in a windy and rainy 20-10 road setback.
The defeat was even harder to take for East Carolina considering it outgained the Owls by 293 yards and collected 30 first downs to Temple’s 10. The Bearcats, who are tied with the Pirates and Central Florida for second place one-half game behind conference-leading Memphis, continued their resurgence with a 38-14 victory at Tulane on October 31st. Cincinnati dropped three in a row by a combined 70 points from September 27th-October 11th, but has responded with three straight victories of at least 17 points against teams in the bottom half of the conference.
•ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (6-2, 3-1 American Athletic Conference): The five lost fumbles were two more than the Pirates had entering the Temple contest while the five total giveaways marked the team’s highest turnover total since committing seven against Alabama-Birmingham in 2011. East Carolina, which ranks third-worst in the FBS in penalties (9.3) and second-to-last in penalty yardage (90.3), has been flagged 11 or more times for at least 105 yards in three straight contests. Shane Carden threw for a season-low 217 yards and was held without a touchdown throw for the first time since last year’s regular-season finale, but still managed to pass David Garrard’s school record for career total offense (10,328 yards).
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (5-3, 3-1 American Athletic Conference): Munchie Legaux took over at quarterback after Gunner Kiel aggravated a rib injury on the first play of the game against Tulane and matched a career high with three touchdown passes, temporarily supplanting Kiel as the starter. "Gunner is going to have to get 100 percent healthy before we're going to work with him much with the ones.... Munchie played well enough to be the starter (against East Carolina)," coach Tommy Tuberville told the Cincinnati Enquirer. Rod Moore ran for 124 yards and Mike Boone added 113 more, becoming the first set of Bearcats to top 100 yards in the same game since 2003.
•PREGAME NOTES: East Carolina has outscored its conference foes 41-0 in the fourth quarter.... Cincinnati has scored at least 34 points in four straight contests in the same season for the first time since a five-game run to open the 2007 campaign.... The Pirates, who rank eighth in FBS in run defense, have held six of their opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing.... East Carolina is 0-5-1 versus the spread in their last six weekday games and 1-8 ATS with rest while Cincinnati is 7-2-1 ATS during weekday play and 17-9-1 ATS as home dogs. And like last year, the Bearcats are surging at just the right time (riding a 3-0 straight-up and against the spread streak) as they’re 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS from Game Six out under Tommy Tuberville.
•KEY STATS
--E CAROLINA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was E CAROLINA 39.5, OPPONENT 19.1.
--E CAROLINA is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was E CAROLINA 26.6, OPPONENT 25.1.
--E CAROLINA is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was E CAROLINA 12.1, OPPONENT 17.1.
--E CAROLINA is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was E CAROLINA 14.3, OPPONENT 14.4.
--CINCINNATI is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 26.4, OPPONENT 22.6.
--CINCINNATI is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in home games versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 23.4, OPPONENT 23.0.
•COACHING TRENDS
--RUFFIN MCNEILL is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) as the coach of E CAROLINA.
The average score was E CAROLINA 28.6, OPPONENT 45.8.
--RUFFIN MCNEILL is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of E CAROLINA.
The average score was E CAROLINA 41.1, OPPONENT 46.2.
--RUFFIN MCNEILL is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) in games played on turf as the coach of E CAROLINA.
The average score was E CAROLINA 14.5, OPPONENT 16.3.
--TOMMY TUBERVILLE is 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was TUBERVILLE 26.3, OPPONENT 21.8.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CINCINNATI is 7-4 against the spread versus E CAROLINA since 1992.
--E CAROLINA is 6-5 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--CINCINNATI is 5-5 versus the first half line when playing against E CAROLINA since 1992.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
--Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ECU is 1-6 ATS L7 games following a bye week.
--ECU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
--Under is 5-0 in ECU last 5 road games.
--CIN is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games.
--CIN is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
--Under is 10-2 in CIN last 12 games in November.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 16 times, while the underdog covered the spread 9 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 20 times, while the underdog won straight up 6 times. 6 games went over the total, while 1 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 12 times, while the underdog covered first half line 11 times. *No EDGE. 4 games went over first half total, while 2 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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#315 CALIFORNIA @ #316 USC
TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: USC -15, Total: 72.5
Southern California looks to keep its faint Pac-12 South title hopes alive Thursday night when the Trojans host California, which needs one win in its final three games to become bowl eligible. Outside linebacker Su’a Cravens is expected to play after giving the Trojans a scare against Washington State on November 1st, when he left the game with a knee injury. Cravens, who leads USC with 12.5 tackles for a loss, has been cleared to face an explosive California team that averages 41.9 points and 361 passing yards.
Both teams took advantage of a week off after the Trojans routed Washington State 44-17 and the Golden Bears defeated Oregon State 45-31 two weeks ago. The much-needed break enabled players such as Cravens and California wide receivers Trevor Davis and Kenny Lawler to recover from injuries, but the news wasn’t as good for Golden Bears defensive end Brennan Scarlett. The junior starter had season-ending ACL surgery last week and will be replaced by freshman Noah Westerfield.
•ABOUT CALIFORNIA (5-4, 3-4 Pac-12): Jared Goff is fourth in the nation with 3,119 passing yards, while running back Daniel Lasco continued to impress with a career-high 188 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Oregon State. The injuries at wide receiver have created an opportunity for Stephen Anderson, who leads the team with 509 receiving yards on 34 catches. Linebacker Michael Barton has a team-high 60 tackles for the struggling defensive unit, which ranks last in the Pac-12 while yielding nearly 40 points and 526 yards per game.
•ABOUT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (6-3, 5-2 Pac-12): The Trojans need to defeat California and UCLA and receive some help in order to win the Pac-12 South, and they’ll start by trying to slow down the Golden Bears’ offense. Defensive end Leonard Williams has 4.5 sacks to lead a unit that ranks third in the league against the run. The Trojans average 35 points and boast several underrated stars on offense, including quarterback Cody Kessler (25-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio) and Javorius Allen, who leads the Pac-12 with an average of 125 rushing yards.
•PREGAME NOTES: Southern Cal has outscored its opponents in the first quarter 108-20.... Goff is four touchdown passes shy of tying the school’s single-season record set by Pat Barnes (31) in 1996.... The Trojans have won 10 straight against California and lead the all-time series 66-30-5.... California is 7-0 versus the spread as a double-digit road underdog following a straight-up and against the spread win.... USC is 9-1 against the spread versus terrible defensive teams who give up 37 or more points/game and, 16-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games since 1992.
•KEY STATS
--CALIFORNIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CALIFORNIA 15.3, OPPONENT 43.4.
--CALIFORNIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.2 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CALIFORNIA 21.9, OPPONENT 42.5.
--CALIFORNIA is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CALIFORNIA 6.7, OPPONENT 29.7.
--CALIFORNIA is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CALIFORNIA 8.0, OPPONENT 27.1.
--USC is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was USC 28.7, OPPONENT 19.4.
--USC is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was USC 24.5, OPPONENT 23.3.
--USC is 10-0 against the 1rst half line (+10.0 Units) versus terrible defensive teams who give up 37 or more points/game since 1992.
The average score was USC 30.5, OPPONENT 6.4.
--USC is 13-2 against the 1rst half line (+10.7 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was USC 20.9, OPPONENT 9.5.
--USC is 34-14 against the 1rst half line (+18.6 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was USC 18.1, OPPONENT 11.1.
•COACHING TRENDS
--SONNY DYKES is 19-4 OVER (+14.6 Units) after scoring 37 points or more last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was DYKES 42.1, OPPONENT 38.3.
--STEVE SARKISIAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after a bye week in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SARKISIAN 34.8, OPPONENT 20.2.
--STEVE SARKISIAN is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SARKISIAN 25.7, OPPONENT 21.3.
--STEVE SARKISIAN is 12-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) after a bye week in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was SARKISIAN 19.7, OPPONENT 10.2.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--USC is 12-10 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA since 1992.
--USC is 17-5 straight up against CALIFORNIA since 1992.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--USC is 13-8 versus the first half line when playing against CALIFORNIA since 1992.
--9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
--Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 meetings.
--Golden Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Southern California.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CAL is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
--CAL is 6-15 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
--Over is 5-2 in CAL last 7 games in November.
--USC is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 conference games.
--USC is 32-15 ATS in their last 47 games in November.
--Under is 6-2 in USC last 8 conference games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 18 times, while the favorite covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 24 times, while the underdog won straight up 2 times. 6 games went over the total, while 2 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 13 times, while the underdog covered first half line 11 times. *No EDGE. 4 games went over first half total, while 4 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home favorites versus the 1rst half line (USC) - an average defensive team (21 to 28 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=34 PPG), after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%).
(42-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 13.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 26.8, Opponent 6.9 (Average first half point differential = +19.9)
The situation's record this season is: (8-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (56-29).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (84-52).
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