STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL REPORT
THURSDAY OCTOBER, 30th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #9 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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#301 NEW ORLEANS @ #302 CAROLINA
TV: 8:25 PM EST, NFL Network
Line: Saints -2.5, Total: 48
A vintage performance by Drew Brees has the New Orleans Saints back in the playoff picture in the woeful NFC South Division. The Saints, however, are going to have to prove they can win on the road to secure a spot and their next test comes Thursday night when they visit Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers. Brees passed for 311 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday night's victory over Green Bay, but New Orleans has dropped seven straight regular-season road games.
Carolina has just one win since beginning the season with back-to-back victories but still finds itself percentage points atop the division thanks to its tie against Cincinnati three weeks ago. The Panthers blew a late lead last week against defending Super Bowl champion Seattle, squandering several opportunities in the red zone in a 13-9 loss. Carolina has won four of the last five games in the series. Cam Newton has thrown four touchdowns, run for two and been picked off twice while going 2-1 at home versus New Orleans. Brees has two touchdowns, four interceptions and a 73.1 passer rating while losing the last two at Carolina.
•ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-4 SU, 3-4-0 ATS): Rookie receiver Brandin Cooks had his best game as a professional last week, rushing for one score and catching a touchdown pass in New Orleans' 44-23 victory. Cooks' performance helped take some of the pressure off tight end Jimmy Graham who is still slowed by a shoulder injury and is listed as probable. New Orleans is ranked second in the NFL in total offense - that's seventh in rushing (133.0 yards per game), second in yards per carry (5.1) and fifth in scoring, averaging 28.4 points. The Saints finished 26th in rushing over the previous two seasons, averaging 95.3 yards and slightly over four per attempt.
•ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-4-1 SU, 5-3-0 ATS): Running back DeAngelo Williams declared himself "ready to roll" for Thursday's game, the first time in four games since he injured an ankle. Williams rushed for 210 yards against the Saints in 2012 and will likely share duties with Jonathan Stewart in the backfield for the Panthers, who rank 27th in rushing offense. The Panthers made three trips inside the Seattle 20 but came away with six points. Carolina's 46.2 percent touchdown efficiency in that area ranks 28th. Defense has also been a problem, as Carolina has surrendered at least 37 points four times this season.
•PREGAME NOTES: Carolina wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is second among rookies with 571 yards receiving... Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has six rushing touchdowns against the Saints in six career games.... The Saints have been competitive this season away from the Superdome. New Orleans ranks 29th while yielding an average of 31.3 points in its four road contests, but it led late in the fourth quarter of three that were decided by a combined six points.... The Saints have gone 21 straight regular-season and playoff road games without a 100-yard rusher since Pierre Thomas gained 110 in a 35-27 loss at Carolina on September 16th, 2012.
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•KEY STATS
--NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 20.6, OPPONENT 25.9.
--NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 21.2, OPPONENT 28.0.
--NEW ORLEANS is 24-48 ATS (-28.8 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 23.1, OPPONENT 25.9.
--NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=375 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 28.8, OPPONENT 15.0.
--CAROLINA is 56-23 ATS (+30.7 Units) versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 25.2, OPPONENT 17.8.
--CAROLINA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 25.6, OPPONENT 13.1.
--CAROLINA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was CAROLINA 22.5, OPPONENT 19.0.
--CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 25.3, OPPONENT 15.1.
--CAROLINA is 14-4 against the 1rst half line (+9.6 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.3, OPPONENT 7.8.
--CAROLINA is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.0, OPPONENT 8.6.
--CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAROLINA 13.3, OPPONENT 12.2.
•COACHING TRENDS
--SEAN PAYTON is 7-25 ATS (-20.4 Units) after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 24.5, OPPONENT 24.9.
--SEAN PAYTON is 14-5 UNDER (+8.5 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 24.8, OPPONENT 19.6.
--SEAN PAYTON is 20-8 against the 1rst half line (+11.2 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 17.8, OPPONENT 10.5.
--RON RIVERA is 28-15 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 24.6, OPPONENT 22.1.
--RON RIVERA is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) versus very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 25.3, OPPONENT 29.7.
--RON RIVERA is 13-3 OVER (+9.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of CAROLINA.
The average score was CAROLINA 14.2, OPPONENT 11.4.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CAROLINA is 22-15 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 20-18 straight up against NEW ORLEANS since 1992.
--23 of 38 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--CAROLINA is 20-18 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1992.
--20 of 36 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
--Saints are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Carolina.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NO is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--NO is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Week #9.
--Over is 5-0 in NO last 5 games in October.
--CAR is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
--CAR is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 versus the NFC South.
--Under is 4-1 in NO last 5 games in Week #9.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 33 times, while the favorite covered the spread 24 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 36 times, while the underdog won straight up 25 times. 29 games went over the total, while 22 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 60 times, while the favorite covered first half line 52 times. *No EDGE. 45 games went under first half total, while 39 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG), after scoring 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game.
(51-21 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (40-33 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.7
The average score in these games was: Team 21.7, Opponent 20.9 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (39.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-9).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (128-88).
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