Guaranteed Pick: Matt Fargo
Game: Pittsburgh Panthers at South Florida Oct 2 2008 7:45PM
Prediction: Pittsburgh Panthers
Reason: **79% **2.5** Big East Game of the Week** Pittsburgh and head coach Dave Wannstedt get unwarranted slaps in the face as far as I’m concerned. The Panthers have yet to surpass the .500 mark and have failed to make it to a bowl in his three years so it arguably can be said that they have underachieved. However, Wannstedt is finally directing his own players now and with an experienced group, they will be contending for the Big East title. A scare in Syracuse last week due to a possible lookahead here will have Pittsburgh focused.
The Bulls are 5-0 and right now look like the team to beat in the conference. They looked very impressive last week in dismantling NC State but overall, they have not exactly been a dominating team. The week before they snuck by a horrid Florida International team following a close win over Kansas. It took overtime to take out Central Florida and the first win was over FCS team Tennessee-Martin. This team is solid but should not be laying two touchdowns in conference action against a top tiered team.
The South Florida defense is solid as it is ranked 8th in the nation overall and 4th against the run, allowing just 58.8 ypg. Now comes a test however. The last three offenses the Bulls have faces are ranked 94th, 113th and 110th in rushing offense and the Panthers, while ranked 60th currently, will be the toughest test to date. They rushed for a season high 241 yards and while Syracuse was not a big test, it does provide momentum. Overall, Pittsburgh is averaging 152.8 ypg and 4.1 ypc.
The defense could very well be short handed once again as South Florida All-American defensive end George Selvie and defensive tackle Terrell McClain likely will miss their second consecutive game. On the other side, the Panthers defense is playing well, allowing just 306.5 ypg, which is 32nd in the nation. The team allowed just 254 total yards to Bowling Green in the opener but it was hurt by four turnovers. The Panthers should very well be 4-0 heading into this game.
The rushing defense of the Bulls as mentioned is solid but Pittsburgh falls into a contrarian situation based on that defense. Play against home favorites between 10.5 and 21 points that are allowing fewer than 100 ypg on the ground, after giving up fewer than 40 yards rushing in their last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS L7 road games against a team with a winning record while the Bulls are 0-6 ATS L6 against teams with a winning record. Play Pittsburgh Panthers 2.5 Units
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