STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/30/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 1/30/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Thursday's Notebook
•Marquette's last three games all went to OT; Eagles lost by two of three by 9-12 points, beating Georgetown, but they won their last nine games versus Providence, winning last six at home, all by 7+ points. Eagles are 2-9 versus teams in top 100, beating Georgetown/George Washington. Big East home favorites of less than 5 points are 2-4 versus spread. Providence won its last five games but four of them were at home; the fifth was in OT at St John's.
•Cincinnati is 10-point dog despite being 7-0 in AAC; they've won last 12 games, beating Pittsburgh/Memphis away from home. Bearcats are 3-4 in last seven games versus Louisville, losing last two visits to KFC Yum Center by 5-16 points. Cardinals won last four games, last three by 39-12-39 points; they're 1-2 as home favorites, beating SMU by 8, losing to Memphis. AAC home favorites of 9+ points are 9-3 versus spread.
•Tex-Arlington is in its third league in three years, so these road trips are all new to Mavericks, who are 4-3 in Sun Belt but played five of seven games at home- they lost by 20 at ULL, won at Texas State. Western Kentucky is 5-2 in league but both losses were at home, with the only home win in double OT versus Arkansas State. Sun Belt Conference home favorites are 10-16 versus spread. Hilltoppers won last three games by 5-18-9 points.
•Nebraska threw its third-leading scorer off team this week; they've won last two home games, with only home loss in league to Michigan by one point. Huskers/Indiana split two league meetings; Hoosiers lost by point here in Lincoln in 2012, won by 29 at home LY- they're 3-4 in last seven games, 1-2 on road, losing by 3 at Illinois, 5 at Michigan State. Big Ten home teams are 7-9 versus spread if number is 5 or less points.
•UTEP threw three kids off team few weeks ago but they're still 9-1 in last ten games, winning last four while allowing 54.6 ppg. Miners are 2-1 at home in league, winning by 10-19, losing to Charlotte. Conference-USA home underdogs are 5-6 versus spread. Louisiana Tech also won nine of last ten games but lost last road game, at Southern Miss; Bulldogs are 2-4 against teams in top 150, winning in OT at Oklahoma, beating St. Bonaventure by 4.
•Home side won eight of last nine USC-Oregon State games; Trojans lost last four visits to Corvallis by 4-6-4-19 points- they split at home last week after 0-5 start in league. USC is 0-3 on Pac-12 road, losing by 34-18-21 points. Beavers are 3-4 in league, 2-1 at home, losing to California by 5, beating Stanford/Oregon- their Pac-12 wins are by 8-9-11. Pac-12 home favorites of 7+ points are 12-7 versus spread.
•Oregon lost five of last six games after a 13-0 start, losing both games at home in Pac-12, to California/Stanford. Ducks won last four games versus UCLA, by 17-7-8-9 points. Bruins are 5-2 in league but beat Colorado in Buffaloes' first game without star Dinwiddie, lost by 5 at Utah in only road tilts. Pac-12 home teams are 10-7 versus spread if number was 5 or less points. UCLA is forcing turnovers 21.6% of time, best in Pac-12 play.
•St Mary's won five in row, 10 of last 11 games with San Diego, taking four of last five here at Jenny Craig Pavilion, with wins by 23-12-6-10 points. This is first road game in 26 days for Gaels, who won at Pacific/Portland, lost by 21 at Gonzaga on West Coast Conference road. Toreros are 3-6 but split only two home games, beating LMU, losing by 4 to Pepperdine. Favorites are 8-1 versus spread in WCC games where number was less than 4 points.
•Home side won seven of last eight Irvine-UCSB games; Anteaters lost last five visits to Thunderdome by 7-3-13-18-3 points, but they're 4-1 in Big West Conference so far, allowing 48 ppg in wins at Long Beach/Riverside, by 4-20 points. Irvine has blocked 16.6% of opponents' shots in its league games. Underdogs are 8-1-1 versus spread in Big West games where spread was 6 or less points. UCSB split its first two conference home games.
•Chattanooga is 8-0 in Southern Conference in Wade's first year after coming over from VCU, where he was an assistant on their Final Four team. Mocs are on 10-game win streak after starting season 4-8; their last five losses are all by 13+ points. Southern Conference double digit home favorites are 1-6 versus spread. Davidson is 6-1 in league, winning home games by 12-30, but they also lost a home game, in OT to Elon.
•Quinnipiac won six of last eight games, is 5-0 at home in Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, with wins by 4-12-5-9-14 points- they won in OT at Manhattan in last game Sunday. MAAC home teams are 8-5 versus spread in games where number was 3 or less points. Canisius won five of last six games; their two road games in that streak were decided by total of three points. Quinnipiac is the worst team in country forcing turnovers (12% of time).
•Weber State won its last 11 games with Northern Arizona, but needed OT to win 80-78 in Flagstaff LY; they've won last five visits to Rolle Activity Center- they split first two Big Sky road games, losing at Northern Colorado, winning by 12 at North Dakota. Big Sky home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-1 versus spread. Lumberjacks are 5-3 in league, 3-0 at home, but none of three teams they beat are ranked higher than #279 in country.
•Northern Colorado won five of its last seven games with Portland State; sweeping Vikings by 17-10 points LY. Bears are 7-1 but split only two road games, on Montana trip. Portland State won four of last five games, is 3-1 at home in league, winning last three by 3-3-9 points, with loss to Montana State. Big Sky home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-1 versus spread. Northern Colorado is shooting 57.9% inside the arc.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- MIDDLE TENN ST is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in home games after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIDDLE TENN ST 79.5, OPPONENT 51.7.
-- UAB is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UAB 59.2, OPPONENT 59.5.
-- FLORIDA is 17-4 against the 1rst half line (+12.6 Units) after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA 34.7, OPPONENT 24.7.
-- WRIGHT ST is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
The average score was WRIGHT ST 31.1, OPPONENT 27.3.
-- JOHN BEILEIN is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better as the coach of MICHIGAN.
The average score was BEILEIN 73.8, OPPONENT 58.7.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- IUPUI is 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IUPUI 60.4, OPPONENT 78.2.
-- CINCINNATI is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 65.1, OPPONENT 55.4.
-- MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 22.9, OPPONENT 38.7.
-- PURDUE is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PURDUE 32.0, OPPONENT 36.7.
-- JAMES DICKEY is 9-30 ATS (-24.0 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was DICKEY 64.2, OPPONENT 77.2.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (N DAKOTA ST) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average shooting team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(54-4 since 1997.) (93.1%, +46.3 units. Rating= 6*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -192.5
The average score in these games was: Team 75.6, Opponent 66.7 (Average point differential = +8.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0, +13 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-2, +13.6 units).
-- Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MARQUETTE) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against a poor shooting team (40-42.5%), after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(64-25 since 1997.) (71.9%, +36.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (76-15)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 77.6, Opponent 67.6 (Average point differential = +10)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 37 (41.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-9).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 6 to 11 points versus the first half line (E KENTUCKY) - average defensive team (67-74 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=78 PPG), after a combined score of 165 points or more.
(40-12 since 1997.) (76.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.4, Opponent 38.9 (Average first half point differential = -4.5)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
-- Play On - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (W ILLINOIS) - an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team.
(47-16 since 1997.) (74.6%, +29.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.7, Opponent 28.6 (Average first half point differential = +3.1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
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Thursday's Match-ups
#509 PROVIDENCE @ #510 MARQUETTE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Marquette -4.5, Total: N/A) - Providence is one of the surprise teams in the Big East thus far, reeling off five straight conference wins after an 0-2 league start to sit among the leaders as January draws to a close. The Friars are the only team in the league to beat Creighton and they come off a victory over Xavier, so it's not like they've been beating the patsies of the league during the streak. But now they face a Marquette team that has dominated them since the Golden Eagles joined the Big East, winning 10 of 11 meetings as conference rivals.
Marquette is a perennial contender for the league title, but the Eagles have had a hard time finding consistency lately, alternating losses and wins over their first seven conference games. Coach Buzz Williams' team seems like it could go either way the rest of the season, considering it has had a one-point regulation win, two overtime losses and an overtime victory in its last four outings. Winning against the teams above them in the standings is a must for the Eagles, so this contest is key to their hopes of getting into the title picture.
•ABOUT PROVIDENCE (15-5 SU, 10-9-0 ATS, 5-2 Big East): Despite his team's early success in conference play, Providence coach Ed Cooley isn't looking ahead to anything. He knows there is a lot of basketball to be played before celebrating any accomplishments and he's been trying to impart that on his team as well. “Truly it's been a game-by-game approach with this team, but we are earning our way right now,” Cooley told the Providence Journal. “We're not even at the halfway point (in league play). Can you stay injury free, stay away from the flu, keep your focus? I tell our guys every day, 'Let's try to go 1-0 today.'”
•ABOUT MARQUETTE (11-9 SU, 7-11-0 ATS, 3-4 Big East): Coaches often preach playing a full 40 minutes to their teams, and Williams is definitely one of them — even a full 45 minutes lately. The Golden Eagles have struggled to close out games, dropping a pair of overtime contests in their last three outings that Williams saw as very winnable games, so he's trying to preach to his players to play just as hard in the last few minutes as they do in the first few. “We did not get a stop in the last five minutes of (an overtime loss to Villanova on Saturday) and we worked incredibly hard to get it to that point,” Williams told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “I told our guys, 'You played with great guts to get it to overtime and you did not make a stop in overtime.'”
•PREGAME NOTES: While the Golden Eagles have played overtime contests in their last three outings, it's the Friars who have more overtime games this year, playing an extra five minutes twice and going to double overtime two other times.... Marquette G Jake Thomas has an affinity for the 3-point line, with 95 percent of his made baskets (37 of 39) this season coming from beyond the arc.... Providence is looking to win six consecutive conference games for only the second time in its history, with the first instance happening during the 2003-04 season.... The Friars 4-12 against the spread in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PROVIDENCE covered the spread 510 times, while MARQUETTE covered the spread 490 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MARQUETTE won the game straight up 602 times, while PROVIDENCE won 373 times. In 1000 simulated games, PROVIDENCE covered the first half line 532 times, while MARQUETTE covered the first half line 468 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MARQUETTE is 9-2 against the spread versus PROVIDENCE since 1997.
--MARQUETTE is 10-1 straight up against PROVIDENCE since 1997.
--5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MARQUETTE is 6-5 versus the first half line when playing against PROVIDENCE since 1997.
--6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Friars are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Friars are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Marquette.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PROV is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East.
--Under is 7-2 in PROV last 9 road games.
--Over is 5-2 in PROV last 7 vs. Big East.
--MARQ is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--MARQ is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East.
--Under is 7-2 in MARQ last 9 home games.
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#515 FLORIDA @ #516 MISSISSIPPI ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Florida -14, Total: N/A) - Fourth-ranked Florida is starting to take on the look of a national championship contender as it carries an 11-game winning streak into its contest at Mississippi State on Thursday, and its one-game-at-a-time mentality is serving it well. It also helps that the Gators, coming off a 67-41 victory versus Tennessee on Saturday, do not play No. 11 Kentucky until Feb. 15, and with the SEC seemingly down, that appears to be the only reason to look forward. "I think our guys understand the length of this league in terms of the grind for nine weeks and I think they also understand that from one game to the next it’s very important,” Florida coach Billy Donovan told Florida Today.
The Gators win with a stifling defense which holds opponents to 58.8 points per game - ninth in the nation - while defeating their first six SEC foes by an average of 13.2 points. The Bulldogs had their two-game winning streak snapped with an 82-63 setback at Mississippi on Saturday, a contest marred by coach Rick Ray swearing at the Rebels' Marshall Henderson as he left the court with 6.3 seconds left. Ray on Sunday apologized to Henderson and Mississippi coach Andy Kennedy.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (17-2 SU, 8-6-1 ATS, 6-0 SEC): The Gators are in such dominating form, they were able to survive injuries to three starters during their winning streak. Senior forward Casey Prather (team-leading 16.8 points per game) averaged 15.7 points and five rebounds in the last three games after missing two contests with a bone bruise in his right knee, while senior guard Scottie Wilbekin (ankle) and senior center Patric Young (tendinitis in knees) were able to play through their ailments. Sophomore guard Michael Frazier II (12.3 points) was named SEC Player of the Week after averaging 17.5 points against Alabama and Tennessee.
•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (13-6 SU, 4-7-0 ATS, 3-3 SEC): The Bulldogs are not a strong offensive team (202nd in the nation at 70.9 points per game), so struggling at the other end - as they did against Mississippi - makes it very difficult for them to win. “Our guys didn’t come out and execute on the defensive end and that is very disappointing,” Ray told the school web site. “We have our challenges on the offensive end, but that does not impact how we should be playing on the defensive end.” Sophomore guard Craig Sword leads the Bulldogs at 13.9 points per game, but has scored a total of 10 in his last two games - four against the Rebels on 2-for-7 shooting.
•PREGAME NOTES: Florida is 8-2 in games decided by single digits after going 0-6 in such contests last season.... Mississippi State is 11-1 at home, with its only blemish a 71-61 decision against Texas Christian in the Big 12-SEC Challenge on Dec. 5.... The Gators have won three straight meetings and lead the series 60-49, and are 5-4 against the Bulldogs under Donovan.... The Bulldogs are 2-11 against the spread versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MISSISSIPPI ST covered the spread 588 times, while FLORIDA covered the spread 383 times. *EDGE against the spread =MISSISSIPPI ST. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 801 times, while MISSISSIPPI ST won 183 times. In 1000 simulated games, MISSISSIPPI ST covered the first half line 606 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 356 times. *EDGE against first half line =MISSISSIPPI ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MISSISSIPPI ST is 12-8 against the spread versus FLORIDA since 1997
--FLORIDA is 12-8 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST since 1997
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997
--MISSISSIPPI ST is 12-6 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA since 1997.
--9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Gators are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Gators are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Mississippi St.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 20-7-1 in FLA last 28 overall.
--Over is 21-10 in FLA last 31 Thu. games.
--Under is 11-3-1 in FLA last 15 vs. Southeastern.
--MSST is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--Over is 8-1 in MSST last 9 overall.
--Under is 8-3 in MSST last 11 Thu. games.
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#517 CINCINNATI @ #518 LOUISVILLE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Louisville -9.5, Total: N/A) - Even as it sits atop the standings and holds the best overall record in the league, No. 15 Cincinnati seems to be an afterthought in the American Athletic Conference title race. The Bearcats look to change that when they travel down I-71 and across the Ohio River to face No. 7 Louisville on Thursday. The Cardinals have won four straight since suffering their lone conference defeat against Memphis, and two of those victories have been 39-point blowouts.
The Bearcats were picked to finish fourth in the inaugural season of the American, but they've won 12 straight — including their first eight conference contests — to set up a showdown with the defending national champion Cardinals. "For us, I want our guys to embrace it," Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin told reporters. "I think you have to remember these are college kids and they've earned the right to have a big game on a big night... This is one game I won't have to worry about motivation and making sure my guys are ready to play." The preseason league favorite, the Cardinals hope to get guard Chris Jones (11.3 points) back Thursday after missing three games with a strained oblique.
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (19-2 SU, 9-6-0 ATS, 8-0 AAC): The Bearcats and their winning streak survived a scare in an 80-76 win at Temple on Sunday, getting a season-high 29 points from Sean Kilpatrick, the league's leading scorer at 19.1 points per game. Kilpatrick is hardly a one-man show, but Cincinnati could be without a key member of its supporting cast with forward Justin Jackson nursing a sprained ankle suffered early in the Temple game. Jackson, the Bearcats' top interior defender, ranks in the top 10 in the nation with 3.38 blocks per game and averages 11.1 points and a team-high seven rebounds.
•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (17-3 SU, 10-8-0 ATS, 6-1 AAC): The Cardinals feed off their defensive pressure — the hallmark of coach Rick Pitino's teams — averaging 10 steals and 21.9 points off turnovers while boasting a plus-6.8 average turnover margin. Louisville has five players averaging double-digit scoring, but the go-to guy is guard Russ Smith (18.1 points, 4.8 assists), who is shooting a blistering 61.3 percent from 3-point range in conference play and also leads the league with 2.4 steals per conference game. Forward Montrezl Harrell (12.1 points, 8.5 rebounds) has been a force lately with four double-doubles in the last five games and frontcourt mate Luke Hancock (10.8 points) has stepped up his production to 15.9 points per game in conference play.
•PREGAME NOTES: It's the first meeting between the rivals when both are ranked in the top 15 since 1997.... Cincinnati had held 27 consecutive opponents under 70 points before giving up 76 to Temple. The Bearcats have allowed 70 or more only three times in their last 49 contests.... Smith needs four points to reach 1,600 in his career. He ranks 15th all-time at Louisville and is 18 points behind No. 14 Lancaster Gordon (1,614) and 28 behind No. 13 Marques Maybin (1,624).... The Bearcats are 1-8 against the spread versus good defensive teams - allowing less than 64 points/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Cardinals are 14-4 versus the spread off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE covered the spread 532 times, while CINCINNATI covered the spread 468 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 769 times, while CINCINNATI won 201 times. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 502 times, while CINCINNATI covered the first half line 498 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CINCINNATI is 16-13 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE since 1997.
--CINCINNATI is 17-12 straight up against LOUISVILLE since 1997.
--16 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CINCINNATI is 16-10 versus the first half line when playing against LOUISVILLE since 1997.
--12 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Louisville.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CIN is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--Under is 42-11 in CIN last 53 overall.
--Under is 20-8 in CIN last 28 road games.
--Over is 19-7 in LOU last 26 overall.
--Over is 16-5 in LOU last 21 home games.
--Under is 11-4 in LOU last 15 Thu. games.
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#531 INDIANA @ #532 NEBRASKA
(TV: 8:15 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Nebraska -1, Total: N/A) - When Nebraska last hosted Indiana, the Cornhuskers stunned a ranked Hoosiers squad for what was easily their biggest win of that season. While another home victory Thursday wouldn’t register the same amount of surprise this time around, it would serve as another critical triumph for Nebraska, which downed then-No. 13 Indiana 70-69 on Jan. 18, 2012. The Cornhuskers, who defeated Ohio State at home earlier this month, improved to 9-1 at Pinnacle Bank Arena with Sunday’s win over Minnesota.
The first order of business for the Hoosiers to avoid another loss in Nebraska will be to find an answer for Terran Petteway, who ranks third in the Big Ten in scoring (18.2 points) after erupting for a career-high 35 against the Golden Gophers. “(Petteway) is absolutely fearless and plays both ends of the floor extremely well. … I think he's going to be very tough to deal with,” Indiana coach Tom Crean told the school’s official website. The Hoosiers ended a two-game slide with Sunday’s 56-46 home victory over fading Illinois, but they are a mere 2-5 away from home thus far.
•ABOUT INDIANA (13-7 SU, 10-8-1 ATS, 3-4 Big Ten): The Hoosiers finished with a plus-14 rebounding margin – the largest differential for the school in conference play – and continue to have their way on the glass, winning or tying their opponent on the boards in 19 of 20 games. Indiana limited Illinois to a season low-tying four offensive rebounds and zero second-chance points. “That was paramount; (Illinois is) one of the best offensive rebounding teams around ... and had 25 offensive rebounds when they went to Wisconsin (on Jan. 8). Our rebounding was really strong,” Crean told the school’s official website.
•ABOUT NEBRASKA (10-9 SU, 11-7-0 ATS, 2-5 Big Ten): Deverell Biggs – the team’s third-leading scorer at 9.9 points – was dismissed from the team Tuesday for unspecified reasons. That could mean even more offensive pressure on Petteway, who became the 13th Cornhusker with multiple 30-point games in his career, tied the 10th-highest single-game scoring effort in school history Sunday and scored the most points by a Cornhusker since Aleks Maric had 36 against Iowa State in 2007. "He's a machine, he really is; he can score in transition and make 3s. I'm not going to risk slowing him down a little bit," coach Tim Miles told the school’s official website.
•PREGAME NOTES: In its loss to Michigan State and the victory over Illinois, Indiana started three freshmen (Noah Vonleh, Stanford Robinson and Troy Williams) in consecutive contests for the first time since the last five games of the 2010 season.... Each of Nebraska’s last five games has been decided by six points or fewer.... The 82 points the Cornhuskers scored Sunday were their most in a conference tilt since joining the Big Ten while the 46 points Indiana allowed to Illinois were its fewest in any game under Crean.... Nebraska is 24-7 versus the spread in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the spread 544 times, while NEBRASKA covered the spread 439 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 506 times, while NEBRASKA won 456 times. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the first half line 542 times, while NEBRASKA covered the first half line 458 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEBRASKA is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1997.
--NEBRASKA is 1-1 straight up against INDIANA since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--NEBRASKA is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IND is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Thu. games.
--IND is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--Under is 4-1 in IND last 5 Thursday games.
--NEB is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
--NEB is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.
--NEB is 16-36 ATS in their last 52 games following a S.U. win.
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#539 USC @ #540 OREGON ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Line: Oregon State -8.5, Total: N/A) - USC is still at least a year away from contending for the Pac-12 title, but the Trojans visit Oregon State on Thursday with some much-needed confidence. After losing their first five league games by an average of 22 points, the Trojans upset California before losing in overtime to Stanford on Sunday. They'll be tested by the league’s top scorer in Roberto Nelson, averaging 22.2 points for the Beavers while scoring at least 20 points in five consecutive games.
The Beavers are shooting 49.5 percent from the field and can reach .500 through eight league games for the first time since 1999 with a victory over USC. Coach Craig Robinson’s squad has won three of its last five and ranks as the top 3-point shooting team in conference games at 49.1 percent. “We’re getting better as a team in a lot of ways,” Robinson told reporters. “We just have to get better in everything at the same time and execute everything all at once.”
•ABOUT USC (10-10 SU, 7-10-1 ATS, 1-6 Pac-12): The Trojans’ encouraging play last week was sparked by 6-10 freshman forward Nikola Jovanovic, who scored a career-high 23 points in the 77-69 victory over California. The Trojans also received a welcome boost from senior guard J.T. Terrell, who has averaged 11.5 points and 3.8 rebounds over the last four games after struggling to get untracked during non-conference play. Guard Byron Wesley leads the Trojans in points (16.5) and rebounds (7.1), while 7-2 center Omar Oraby ranks second in the Pac-12 with 49 blocks.
•ABOUT OREGON STATE (11-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 3-4 Pac-12): Nelson is shooting 45.9 percent from the field along with 19 steals, and Robinson told reporters he’s become a complete player in his senior season. “What makes him such a good scorer is that he doesn’t just rely on the outside shots,” Robinson said. “He can score going to the basket, he’s got a nice mid-range jump shot and he gets to the foul line.” The Beavers’ solid frontcourt includes center Angus Brandt and forward Devon Collier, who had a combined total of 33 points and 10 rebounds in two games last week.
•PREGAME NOTES: USC leads the all-time series 67-60, but Oregon State has won four straight at home.... The Trojans are 7-0 when holding their opponent to less than 70 points.... Oregon State is 5-73 when trailing with five minutes to play over the past four seasons.... The Trojans are 14-4 against the spread in road games versus teams who attempt 14 or less 3-point shots/game on the season after 15+ games since 1997.... The Beavers are 12-4 versus the spread off a loss against a conference rival over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OREGON ST covered the spread 531 times, while USC covered the spread 469 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON ST won the game straight up 776 times, while USC won 192 times. In 1000 simulated games, USC covered the first half line 499 times, while OREGON ST covered the first half line 461 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--USC is 15-14 against the spread versus OREGON ST since 1997.
--USC is 19-11 straight up against OREGON ST since 1997.
--11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OREGON ST is 15-14 versus the first half line when playing against USC since 1997.
--11 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Trojans are 0-5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Trojans are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Oregon St.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--USC is 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 road games.
--USC is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall
--Over is 10-3 in USC last 13 Thu. games.
--ORST is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--Under is 6-1 in ORST last 7 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 6-2 in ORST last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
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#541 UCLA @ #542 OREGON
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Line: Oregon -2.5, Total: N/A) - USC is still at least a year away from contending for the Pac-12 title, but the Trojans visit Oregon State on Thursday with some much-needed confidence. After losing their first five league games by an average of 22 points, the Trojans upset California before losing in overtime to Stanford on Sunday. They'll be tested by the league’s top scorer in Roberto Nelson, averaging 22.2 points for the Beavers while scoring at least 20 points in five consecutive games.
The Beavers are shooting 49.5 percent from the field and can reach .500 through eight league games for the first time since 1999 with a victory over USC. Coach Craig Robinson’s squad has won three of its last five and ranks as the top 3-point shooting team in conference games at 49.1 percent. “We’re getting better as a team in a lot of ways,” Robinson told reporters. “We just have to get better in everything at the same time and execute everything all at once.”
•ABOUT USC (10-10 SU, 7-10-1 ATS, 1-6 Pac-12): The Trojans’ encouraging play last week was sparked by 6-10 freshman forward Nikola Jovanovic, who scored a career-high 23 points in the 77-69 victory over California. The Trojans also received a welcome boost from senior guard J.T. Terrell, who has averaged 11.5 points and 3.8 rebounds over the last four games after struggling to get untracked during non-conference play. Guard Byron Wesley leads the Trojans in points (16.5) and rebounds (7.1), while 7-2 center Omar Oraby ranks second in the Pac-12 with 49 blocks.
•ABOUT OREGON STATE (11-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 3-4 Pac-12): Nelson is shooting 45.9 percent from the field along with 19 steals, and Robinson told reporters he’s become a complete player in his senior season. “What makes him such a good scorer is that he doesn’t just rely on the outside shots,” Robinson said. “He can score going to the basket, he’s got a nice mid-range jump shot and he gets to the foul line.” The Beavers’ solid frontcourt includes center Angus Brandt and forward Devon Collier, who had a combined total of 33 points and 10 rebounds in two games last week.
•PREGAME NOTES: USC leads the all-time series 67-60, but Oregon State has won four straight at home.... The Trojans are 7-0 when holding their opponent to less than 70 points.... Oregon State is 5-73 when trailing with five minutes to play over the past four seasons.... The Bruins are 4-14 versus the spread in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last three seasons.... Oregon is 12-3 against the spread after a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the spread 590 times, while OREGON covered the spread 410 times. *EDGE against the spread =UCLA. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA won the game straight up 498 times, while OREGON won 469 times. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the first half line 557 times, while OREGON covered the first half line 443 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON is 17-16 against the spread versus UCLA since 1997.
--UCLA is 18-15 straight up against OREGON since 1997.
--17 of 28 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--UCLA is 17-16 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON since 1997.
--16 of 29 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Trojans are 0-5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Trojans are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Oregon St.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--USC is 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 road games.
--USC is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 10-3 in USC last 13 Thu. games.
--ORST is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--ORST is 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 6-1 in ORST last 7 games following a ATS loss.
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#543 HOUSTON @ #544 CONNECTICUT
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: Connecticut -14, Total: N/A) - Connecticut stumbled a bit at the beginning of American Athletic Conference play but seems to have righted the ship with five wins in the last six games. The Huskies will attempt to avenge their first conference loss when they host Houston on Thursday. The Cougars are moving in the opposite direction with four losses in the last five games since opening AAC play with back-to-back victories.
Connecticut battled back from a 21-point deficit only to fall 75-71 at Houston on Dec. 31, and let that loss spiral into another at Southern Methodist before turning things around. The Huskies appear to be at the top of their game at the moment after back-to-back victories over Temple and Rutgers by an average of 17.5 points. Star guard Shabazz Napier scored at least 26 points in each of the last three games and is looking for his own redemption against the Cougars after his tying layup attempt was blocked in the final minute of the first meeting.
•ABOUT HOUSTON (11-9 SU, 8-7-0 ATS, 3-4 AAC): The Cougars are allowing an average of 82.7 points in their last three losses and gave up 50 points in the second half of a 75-68 home setback to Southern Methodist on Sunday. “We have to defend for 40 minutes,” coach James Dickey told reporters. “Defense is something that you can play every day and every night. Offense is going to be a little inconsistent. That’s something that we have to continue to impress, and it has to be our winning formula.” A bright spot for Houston continues to be forward TaShawn Thomas, who posted a double-double Sunday and went for a season-high 23 points in the victory over the Huskies.
•ABOUT CONNECTICUT (16-4 SU, 9-9-0 ATS, 4-3 AAC): Napier piled up 27 points, nine rebounds and five assists at Houston, but had his layup attempt blocked by Thomas just before the clinching free throws Dec. 31. Napier’s recent scoring binge is due in part to a better effort from 3-point range, where the senior has gone 12-for-25 over the last three games. The Huskies lead the AAC in 3-point shooting (41.3 percent) but struggled to 7-of-22 from beyond the arc against the Cougars the first time around.
•PREGAME NOTES: Connecticut leads the AAC in blocked shots (6.5), paced by freshman C Amida Brimah’s 2.6.... Thomas (60.9) ranks third in the AAC in field-goal percentage and fifth (16.4) in scoring, just below Napier (17.8) in fourth.... Huskies G Omar Calhoun sat out Saturday’s game with an ankle sprain and is day-to-day.... The Cougars are 1-8 versus the spread in road games in January games over the last three seasons.... The Huskies are 4-15 against the spread after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the spread 490 times, while CONNECTICUT covered the spread 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT won the game straight up 855 times, while HOUSTON won 129 times. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the first half line 535 times, while CONNECTICUT covered the first half line 418 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 3-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--HOUSTON is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against CONNECTICUT since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--HOU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
--HOU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 9-3 in HOU last 12 overall.
--UCONN is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--UCONN is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--Under is 7-3 in UCONN last 10 home games.
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#545 PURDUE @ #546 MICHIGAN
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Michigan -12, Total: N/A) - Last season, Nik Stauskas was somewhat of a role player on a Michigan squad that reached the Final Four led by Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Mitch McGary. Now with Burke and Hardaway in the NBA and McGary (back) out indefinitely, Stauskas will look to continue his superb sophomore season Thursday when the 14th-ranked Wolverines host Purdue in search of their 10th straight victory. "He’s the best player in the league,” Boilermakers coach Matt Painter said to the Detroit Free Press. “He’s No. 1 in our league in assist-to-turnover ratio in Big Ten play and that’s a big-time stat for someone who’s not the point guard."
Michigan coach John Beilein told the media this week that if his team rebounds effectively against Purdue, the Wolverines should be able to defeat the Boilermakers, who lead the Big 10 in offensive boards. "Big emphasis on keeping them off the backboard," said Beilein, whose team has defeated three ranked opponents in the last two weeks. The Boilermakers, meanwhile, have lost back-to-back games amid some serious offensive issues and could struggle to reach 60 points against the surging Wolverines.
•ABOUT PURDUE (13-7 SU, 6-11-0 ATS, 3-4 Big Ten): Painter knows that his team's offense must go through center A.J. Hammons, who has made just 4-of-17 shots over his last three games. “We always try to establish our big kid, no matter who we play, always trying to get into the paint whether we’re driving or with the post feed, so I think that’s important,” Painter said earlier this week. Over the Boilermakers' last six games, their scoring output has dipped steadily from 79 to 70 to 66 to 65 to 60 and finally 58 in a 14-point loss to Wisconsin on Saturday.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN (15-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 7-0 Big Ten): Stauskas is averaging a conference-best 18.5 points with terrific shooting percentages across the board - 50 percent from the field, 46.2 percent from 3-point range and 80 percent from the foul line. He has averaged 22.7 points over his last three games in wins against No. 13 Wisconsin, No. 12 Iowa and No. 6 Michigan State. The Wolverines continue to get solid play out of their center combination of Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford, who combined for 10 points, eight rebounds and three blocks in Saturday's 80-75 victory at Michigan State.
•PREGAME NOTES: Stauskas has 69 assists with only 27 turnovers this season, including nine straight games with at least four assists and no more than two turnovers.... The Wolverines are 27-0 under Beilein when scoring at least 80 points.... Four of Purdue's top five scorers, with the exception of Hammons (52.7) shoot below 43 percent from the field.... The Boilermakers are 11-25 against the spread versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.... The Wolverines are 14-5 versus the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the spread 588 times, while PURDUE covered the spread 394 times. *EDGE against the spread =MICHIGAN. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN won the game straight up 855 times, while PURDUE won 126 times. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the first half line 496 times, while PURDUE covered the first half line 467 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PURDUE is 15-12 against the spread versus MICHIGAN since 1997.
--PURDUE is 16-12 straight up against MICHIGAN since 1997.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--PURDUE is 18-10 versus the first half line when playing against MICHIGAN since 1997.
--12 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Boilermakers are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Michigan.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PUR is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
--PUR is 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 Thu. games.
--Over is 7-3 in PUR last 10 Thu. games.
--MICH is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.
--MICH is 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 Thu. games.
--Over is 10-3 in MICH last 13 Thu. games.
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#595 ALABAMA @ #596 AUBURN
(TV: 8:15 PM EST, SEC Network - Line: Auburn -1, Total: N/A) - Auburn is one of two SEC teams still seeking its first league victory and has lost six in a row. But the Tigers will not lack motivation when they host in-state rival Alabama on Thursday, considering Auburn receives the trophy from the school’s Iron Bowl football victory in a halftime ceremony after the Tigers struggled mightily in Saturday’s 86-67 loss at Arkansas. The game was originally scheduled for Wednesday, but officials postponed it when a rare winter storm swept through Alabama.
The Crimson Tide snapped a two-game slide with an 82-80 win over LSU on Saturday despite blowing a 19-point second-half lead. The Crimson Tide are part of a six-team logjam tied at .500 in conference play after benefiting from a career-best 17 points against LSU from Shannon Hale, who has scored in double figures in all six SEC games. Plenty of scoring punch will be on the court Wednesday. Auburn’s duo of KT Harrell (second in the conference at 19.1) and Chris Denson (fourth at 18.8) drives the Tigers’ offense, while Alabama’s Trevor Releford (seventh at 18.2) posted his sixth game of 20-plus points with 21 in Saturday’s victory.
•ABOUT ALABAMA (9-10 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 3-3 SEC): Releford is the unquestioned key cog in the Crimson Tide’s attack, ranking second in the SEC in both free-throw percentage and steals per game while standing sixth in 3-pointers made. He has averaged 21.7 points in Alabama’s three SEC victories and 13.7 in the Crimson Tide's three conference defeats. Guard Retin Obasohan has missed the past two games with a hip flexor injury, and the status of the Crimson Tide’s second-leading scorer (12.2 points per game) for Wednesday is uncertain.
•ABOUT AUBURN (8-9 SU, 6-7-0 ATS, 0-6 SEC): The Tigers played miserably in the first half against Arkansas, going 0-for-7 from 3-point range and shooting 25.9 percent overall while committing 13 turnovers. Harrell, who transferred from Virginia, is fourth in the SEC in 3-point shooting at 41.9 percent, and combines with Denson to account for 51.8 percent of Auburn’s scoring. The Tigers have not won since a victory over Florida A&M on Jan. 4.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Tigers have scored more than 68 points once in six SEC games.... Alabama tied a season high with 18 assists against LSU, sparked by Hale’s career-best six.... Alabama leads the all-time series 89-58, winning six of the past seven meetings.... The Tigers are 1-8 versus the spread versus poor passing teams, averaging less than 12 assists/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Crimson Tide are 13-4 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ALABAMA covered the spread 521 times, while AUBURN covered the spread 445 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ALABAMA won the game straight up 498 times, while AUBURN won 479 times. In 1000 simulated games, ALABAMA covered the first half line 534 times, while AUBURN covered the first half line 466 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--AUBURN is 19-11 against the spread versus ALABAMA since 1997.
--ALABAMA is 18-15 straight up against AUBURN since 1997.
--11 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ALABAMA is 19-12 versus the first half line when playing against AUBURN since 1997.
--11 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Crimson Tide are 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
--Crimson Tide are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Auburn.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ALA is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
--Over is 19-7 in ALA last 26 Thu. games.
--Under is 16-5 in ALA last 21 road games.
--AUB is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--AUB is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 5-2 in AUB last 7 Thursday games.
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