STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/23/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 1/23/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Thursday's Notebook
•St John's is 0-5 in Big East this year, 16-31 in last 47 league games; they lost last three conference games by total of 10 points, beating Dartmouth since. Seton Hall won three of last four games with Red Storm, losing by 4 at Carnesecca Arena LY; Pirates are 2-3 in league, but both wins came on road, in OT at Providence, at Georgetown, holding Hoyas without hoop over last 9:35. Big East home favorites are 10-8 versus spread, 5-3 if giving 6 or less.
•Home side won last four Valparaiso -Youngstown games; Crusaders lost last two visits here by 18-12 points, their only losses in last 13 series tilts. YSU won last three games, winning both home games by 1-14; they are holding teams to 29% from arc in league games. Valparaiso is 3-2 in conference, splitting pair of road games- they're making 39.8% from arc in Horizon League games. Horizon home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-6 versus spread.
•Southern Miss won seven of its last eight games, with all seven wins by 9+ points; Eagles are 5-3 on road, 1-1 in league, losing last road game at Tulsa. Old Dominion won its last four games after 5-9 start; all of three of its league wins were on road. Monarchs lost four of last six at home. C-USA home teams are 6-7 versus spread if number was 5 or less points. USM is turning ball over 20.8% of time in league, worst mark in conference.
•Ohio State lost last four games (scoring 64.3 ppg) after 15-0 start, losing to Iowa in only home game during that span; teams are making 50.8% of 2-pointers versus Buckeyes in conference play. Illinois have worst eFG% offense in league, making 26.2% from arc; they've also lost last four games after a 13-2 start, losing road games by 25-6 points. Big Dozen double digit home favorites are 7-2 versus spread.
•Charlotte won four of last five games, with last three wins all by five or less points; 49ers are 2-3 in true road games, winning at Appalachian State, UTEP. Louisiana Tech had 7-game win streak snapped at Southern Miss Sunday; they're forcing turnovers 22% of time in league, holding teams to 14% behind arc. Tech won two conference home games by 20-34 points. C-USA double digit home favorites are 5-1 versus spread.
•Georgia State is 5-0 in Sun Belt, forcing turnovers 23.8% of time; they've won nine games in row, forcing turnovers 23.8% of time. LA Lafayette won both its conference home games by 20-23 points; they're 2-3 versus teams in top 125, beating Houston/Louisiana Tech. Cajuns are making 41.7% of their 3's in league play. Sun Belt home teams are 3-10 versus spread in games where number was less than 5 points.
•Home side won last four Utah-Arizona State games; Utes lost last two visits to Tempe by total of 6 points, losing by 1 in OT LY. Utah is forcing turnovers 22.4% of time in conference play- they lost first two road games in league by total of 5 points to Washington schools. ASU is 2-3 in league, with all five games decided by 11+ points- they split first two games at home. Pac-12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 2-4 versus spread.
•BYU won its four West Coast Conference games with Portland, winning by 19-18 in two visits to Chiles Center; Cougars won last five games after losing four in row, winning road games in Bay Area last week by 7-10 points. Pilots are 3-4 in its league games, 2-3 at home, with three of four losses by 8+. WCC home underdogs are 4-5 against spread, 0-3 if getting 5 or less points. Cougars scored 83+ points in each of last five wins.
•St Mary's won 13 in row, 18 of last 19 with Pepperdine, winning last six here, four of last five by 12+ points. Gaels are 2-0 since Bennett came back from suspension, winning by 15-6 points. Waves lost three of last five games, with all three losses by 10+- they split four West Coast Conference road tilts. WCC double digit home favorites are 4-3 versus spread. St Mary's is making 41.2% of its 3-pointers in conference play.
•Oregon lost last four games after 13-0 start, allowing 89.5 ppg; Ducks are 1-2 on Pac-12 road, losing at Colorado/Oregon State, winning in OT at Utah- they were 3-0 versus Washington LY, beating Huskies by 3 in OT at Pac-12 tourney; Oregon is 2-3 in last five visits here but 1-4 in conference, Washington allowed 55.5 ppg in winning first two Pac-12 home games by 2-17 points. Pac-12 home underdogs are 7-5 against spread.
•UCLA won three in row, 12 of last 14 games with Stanford, winning last eight played at Pauley Pavilion, with seven of eight by 8+ points. Bruins are 3-2 in league, with all three wins by 13+ points- they're forcing turnovers 22% of time in conference play, making 39.4% from arc. Stanford won last three games, scoring 80.3 ppg; they split their first league road trip, up in Oregon. Pac-12 home favorites of 6+ points are 12-6 versus spread.
•Belmont was 35-43 on foul line in 93-74 win over Morehead State LY, first league game between the two; Morehead turned ball over 24 times, was 19-31 on line, but is much better this year at 4-1 in Ohio Valley Conference, winning at Edwardsville/E. Illinois in only road games. Morehead is getting to foul line most in OVC so far, and making 78.8% once they get there. OVC home favorites of 7+ points are 4-7 against spread.
•Northern Colorado won five of last six games with Northern Arizona, winning last six meetings here, last two by 16-8 points. Bears are 5-1 in Big Sky, 4-0 at home, with three wins by 18+ points. NAU won its last four games; they're also 5-1 in conference play, 2-1 on road, winning at Montana and at dreadful Southern Utah. Big Sky home favorites of 4+ points are 4-7-1 versus spread. Northern Colorado is shooting 59.6% inside arc in league tilts.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- UCLA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UCLA 74.8, OPPONENT 73.5.
-- CINCINNATI is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 68.2, OPPONENT 55.5.
-- HOUSTON is 23-4 against the 1rst half line (+18.6 Units) in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival since 1997.
The average score was HOUSTON 34.8, OPPONENT 33.8.
-- OHIO ST is 17-2 UNDER (+14.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO ST 29.8, OPPONENT 27.7.
-- LORENZO ROMAR is 21-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games off a road loss against a conference rival in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was ROMAR 77.2, OPPONENT 68.7.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- UTAH is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 61.8, OPPONENT 61.7.
-- FLORIDA is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA 70.0, OPPONENT 58.4.
-- MEMPHIS is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 35.6, OPPONENT 30.5.
-- ILLINOIS is 18-2 UNDER (+15.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ILLINOIS 27.8, OPPONENT 31.0.
-- LARRY KRYSTKOWIAK is 29-9 ATS (+19.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was KRYSTKOWIAK 59.8, OPPONENT 64.2.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road underdogs versus the money line (UTAH) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(192-52 since 1997.) (78.7%, +97.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -181.1
The average score in these games was: Team 72.2, Opponent 64.9 (Average point differential = +7.3)
The situation's record this season is: (25-8, +7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (63-20, +23.5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (103-28, +50.2 units).
-- Play On - Home teams as a favorite or pick (AUSTIN PEAY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, with four starters returning from last season, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team.
(29-5 since 1997.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (31-4)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 10.2
The average score in these games was: Team 76.9, Opponent 61.2 (Average point differential = +15.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (37.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
-- Play On - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (OHIO ST) - good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's), off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, with four starters returning from last season.
(31-5 since 1997.) (86.1%, +25.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (33-3)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 10.2
The average score in these games was: Team 76.9, Opponent 61.2 (Average point differential = +15.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (37.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
-- Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (N ARIZONA) - good FT shooting team (69-73%) against an average FT shooting team (65-69%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less.
(31-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.6, Opponent 30.4 (Average first half point differential = +0.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (55-32).
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Thursday's Match-ups
#505 SETON HALL @ #506 ST JOHN'S
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: St. John's -4.5, Total: N/A) - The newer, smaller Big East is not doing St. John’s any favors in the win column. The Red Storm look for their first conference victory when they host Seton Hall on Thursday. The Pirates pulled out of their own Big East losing streak with a 67-57 win at Georgetown on Saturday and are hoping to move back to .500 in the conference at the expense of St. John’s, which went out of conference to earn a win against Dartmouth over the weekend.
The Red Storm lost by two points at DePaul and took Providence to double overtime before falling last week at home but finally found a rhythm against Dartmouth. “We shared the ball well offensively and defended well enough in the second half to secure the victory,” coach Steve Lavin told reporters. “It was a positive step to get a win at this stage given that we haven’t picked up a victory yet in the league... Now, our intention is to carry this momentum into our game against Seton Hall.”
•ABOUT SETON HALL (11-7 SU, 8-9-0 ATS, 2-3 Big East): The Pirates had dropped three straight before recovering from a nine-point halftime deficit to knock off Georgetown and are enduring their third straight conference road game with the trip to St. John’s. Leading scorer Sterling Gibbs is 9-of-26 from the field over the last three games, but Fuquan Edwin helped pick up the slack with 24 points on Saturday and made his presence felt on the defensive end with five steals. The senior swingman will be one of the keys to stopping Red Storm guard D’Angelo Harrison, who is fourth in the Big East in scoring at 18.2 points per game.
•ABOUT ST. JOHN’S (10-8 SU, 5-11-0 ATS, 0-5 Big East): The big positive to come out of the last two games has been the play of guard Phil Greene IV, who averaged 15.5 points after totaling 18 points in the previous five games. Greene buried 4-of-5 from beyond the arc in the 69-55 triumph over Dartmouth and drew praise from Lavin for his aggressiveness. “We just have to build on this win,” Greene said. “It doesn’t necessarily get us out of our dark place right now, but we’re just happy to get a win. The losing was tough so the win just makes everything better and makes it a little more fun.”
•PREGAME NOTES: St. John’s has shot 77 percent or better from the free-throw line in each of its last four games and is 9-0 when attempting more free throws than the opposition.... The Pirates are last in the Big East in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 37 percent from beyond the arc.... Harrison was held to nine points Saturday - the second time in the last five contests he failed to reach double figures.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SETON HALL covered the spread 546 times, while ST JOHNS covered the spread 454 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ST JOHNS won the game straight up 568 times, while SETON HALL won 411 times. In 1000 simulated games, SETON HALL covered the first half line 548 times, while ST JOHNS covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SETON HALL is 14-8 against the spread versus ST JOHNS since 1997.
--SETON HALL is 13-9 straight up against ST JOHNS since 1997.
--10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SETON HALL is 15-7 versus the first half line when playing against ST JOHNS since 1997.
--8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Pirates are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in St. John's.
--Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in St. John's.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--HALL is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--Over is 6-2 in HALL last 8 overall.
--Over is 20-8 in HALL last 28 Thu. games.
--SJU is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big East.
--SJU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 7-3 in SJU last 10 Thu. games.
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#513 ILLINOIS @ #514 OHIO ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Ohio State -10, Total: N/A) - Ohio State has matched its worst losing streak since the 2007-08 campaign and the No. 15 Buckeyes look to halt a four-game skid when they host Illinois on Thursday. Ohio State was sailing along with 15 consecutive victories before the rough stretch that includes losses to unranked Iowa and Nebraska. “We’re not the same team that won 15 in a row,” point guard Aaron Craft said after Monday’s humbling loss to the Cornhuskers. “We have to go back and find that.”
Illinois also has lost four consecutive games and the frustration of coach John Groce was readily apparent during last Saturday’s loss to Michigan State. The Fighting Illini haven’t won since Jan. 4 and three of their next four games are against ranked foes. “It’s more about us right now, getting better at what we do and how we do it,” Groce told The News-Gazette early this week. “I think that’s what we’re going to lock in on.”
•ABOUT ILLINOIS (13-6 SU, 7-7-4 ATS, 2-4 Big Ten): The Fighting Illini have three guards scoring in double digits in Rayvonte Rice (17.4), Tracy Abrams (12.8) and Joseph Bertrand (10.6). But the early-season defensive and rebounding prowess has diminished as well as the overall production since Big Ten play began. “We’ve got a couple guys that need to be playing a little bit better and I’m confident that they will,” Groce said. “Sometimes you just go through that as a player, and as a team where you’ve got to grind and fight through some things.”
•ABOUT OHIO STATE (15-4 SU, 9-9-0 ATS, 2-4 Big Ten): The Buckeyes allow just 58.5 points per game but lack a go-to player and have developed a habit of getting down on themselves during games. “When something doesn’t go well, we’re not able to answer the call,” coach Thad Matta said. “We don’t have the mental toughness to make the next play. We’re clinging on the mistakes. We’ve got to play forward.” Forward LaQuinton Ross averages a team-best 13.9 points while Craft has racked up 45 steals and averages a team-high 4.9 assists
•PREGAME NOTES: Ohio State has won seven of the last nine meetings but the teams split two games last season.... Illini C Nnanna Egwu (40 blocks) has blocked two or more shots in 15 games this season.... Ross has scored in double digits in 12 of the past 14 games.... Illinois is 14-29 against the spread versus conference opponents over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST covered the spread 525 times, while ILLINOIS covered the spread 446 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST won the game straight up 795 times, while ILLINOIS won 187 times. In 1000 simulated games, ILLINOIS covered the first half line 506 times, while OHIO ST covered the first half line 440 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OHIO ST is 16-12 against the spread versus ILLINOIS since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 17-13 straight up against ILLINOIS since 1997.
--14 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 17-12 versus the first half line when playing against OHIO ST since 1997.
--17 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Ohio St.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ILL is 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
--ILL is 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 16-5 in ILL last 21 road games.
--OSU is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten.
--OSU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--Over is 16-6 in OSU last 22 Thu. games.
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#517 FLORIDA @ #518 ALABAMA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Florida -5, Total: N/A) - Sixth-ranked Florida sits atop the SEC as the only team unbeaten in conference play as it visits Alabama on Thursday. The Gators enter red hot, with nine straight wins overall and a combined margin of defeat in their only two losses on the season of seven points. Leading scorer Casey Prather returned from a two-game absence Saturday to pour in a team-high 21 points in a 68-61 win over Auburn, then told GatorZone.com, "We did a good job of taking care of business."
The Crimson Tide have alternated wins and losses since kicking off their SEC schedule and will be looking to rebound from a 68-47 trouncing at the hands of Missouri on Saturday. Alabama led the Tigers by a point at halftime before going cold in the second half, shooting 17 percent from the field. "We had a hard time getting shots to fall," coach Anthony Grant told the Tuscaloosa News. "(Leading scorer Trevor Releford) really struggled but we have got to get to a point where other people are contributing when that happens."
•ABOUT FLORIDA (15-2 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 4-0 SEC): The Gators saw their perfect start to SEC play threatened by Auburn, which trailed by only a point before a late Scottie Wilbekin helped restore control for Florida. "Sometimes, you just have to grind things out and find a way to make a play," he said of the narrow win. Wilbekin's 12.7 points per game ranks second on the team to Prather's 17.3, and the pesky defender also averages a team-high 1.8 steals.
•ABOUT ALABAMA (8-9 SU, 5-9-0 ATS, 2-2 SEC): Despite Releford's struggles against Missouri, the senior managed to finish with 10 points to push his streak of games with 10 or more to 18 in a row. The difference in Alabama's conference games thus far is glaring, its two wins coming at home by an average of 12 points and its two losses on the road by an average of 14.5. points. Releford averages team highs of 18.3 points and 2.8 assists, while Retin Obasohan chips in 12.2 points as the only other Crimson Tide player averaging in double figures.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Gators' nine-game win streak is tied for the 10th longest in program history.... Alabama's backcourt trio of Releford, Obasohan and Shannon Hale averages a combined 41.3 points and is shooting 35.2 percent from 3-point range during SEC play.... Florida is 19-5 against the Crimson Tide during Billy Donovan's tenure as head coach.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ALABAMA covered the spread 497 times, while FLORIDA covered the spread 478 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 625 times, while ALABAMA won 346 times. In 1000 simulated games, ALABAMA covered the first half line 524 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 476 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ALABAMA is 11-10 against the spread versus FLORIDA since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 18-4 straight up against ALABAMA since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ALABAMA is 14-7 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 6-2 in FLA last 8 road games.
--Under is 19-6-1 in FLA last 26 overall.
--Under is 10-2-1 in FLA last 13 vs. Southeastern.
--ALA is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 18-7 in ALA last 25 Thu. games.
--Under is 16-6 in ALA last 22 vs. Southeastern.
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#521 HOUSTON @ #522 MEMPHIS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN News - Line: Memphis -13, Total: N/A) - Memphis endured a bit of a wake-up call last week in a 10-point home loss to Connecticut, but a matchup with Division II LeMoyne-Owen proved to be just what they needed to get back on track. Five days after blowing out the Magicians, the No. 22 Tigers return to the court to host Houston on Thursday. "It is about getting your swagger back, because you have to have swagger as a basketball player," Memphis senior guard Geron Johnson told reporters after the 101-78 win. "It was getting us ready for Houston."
The Cougars also regained some confidence their last time out, defeating Rutgers by 22 points following back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Louisville. The defeat to the Bearcats was a one-point nail-biter, but the loss to the Cardinals was barely competitive as Houston trailed 57-28 at halftime and lost 91-52. "It could have been easy to have your head down and feel sorry for yourself," coach James Dickey told reporters after the bounce-back win over Rutgers. "Our guys responded in a positive way."
•ABOUT HOUSTON (11-7 SU, 8-5-0 ATS, 3-2 AAC): Dickey is a huge fan of redshirt freshman guard Danrad "Chicken" Knowles, who had 16 points, eight rebounds and four blocks against Rutgers. "Danrad is going to be a special, special player," said Dickey, whose team also welcomed back a pair of key players against the Scarlet Knights. Danuel House, who had missed nine games following knee surgery, recorded 14 points and six rebounds while fellow sophomore guard L.J. Rose chipped in nine points and eight assists after missing five games due to a foot injury.
•ABOUT MEMPHIS (13-4 SU, 8-6-0 ATS, 3-2 AAC): Tigers coach Josh Pastner was not thrilled with his team's transition defense, free-throw shooting or defensive rebounding against LeMoyne-Owen, but there was one facet of Memphis' game that left Pastner impressed. "I do love the stat of 29 assists on 38 made field goals," he said. "We have to treat every possession like it is our last. We cannot take any possession for granted." The Tigers' star-studded freshman class has been somewhat slow to contribute this season - in part due to a lack of playing time - but first-year players Nick King (18 points) and Kuran Iverson (11) each scored career highs against the Magicians.
•PREGAME NOTES: Memphis senior G Joe Jackson is shooting 19 percent on 3-pointers this season, including 1-of-15 over his last six games.... The Tigers have been held below 70 points just once this season. TaShawn Thomas, who leads Houston in points (16.7) and rebounds (8.7), has scored in double figures every game this season with seven double-doubles.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the spread 585 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 378 times. *EDGE against the spread =HOUSTON. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 775 times, while HOUSTON won 208 times. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the first half line 617 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 383 times. *EDGE against first half line =HOUSTON.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 17-13 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 23-8 straight up against HOUSTON since 1997.
--14 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--HOUSTON is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cougars are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Cougars are 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Memphis
--Under is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings.
--Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Memphis.
--Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--HOU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Under is 8-2 in HOU last 10 overall.
--Over is 10-4 in HOU last 14 road games.
--Under is 9-3 in MEM last 12 overall.
--Under is 6-2 in MEM last 8 home games.
--Under is 9-4 in MEM last 13 Thu. games.
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#531 NEBRASKA @ #532 PENN ST
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Penn State -3.5, Total: N/A) - Nebraska was able to get its first Big Ten win after overcoming a pair of close losses, something Penn State has been unable to do all season long. The Cornhuskers seek consecutive league victories for the first time as a member of the Big Ten on Thursday when they travel to meet the Nittany Lions. Nebraska, which nearly beat Michigan at the buzzer at home Jan. 9 and lost by six Jan. 12 at Purdue, secured its biggest win of the season with Monday’s 68-62 victory over No. 15 Ohio State.
Since joining the conference prior to the 2011-12 season, the Cornhuskers are 3-1 against the Nittany Lions – one of only two Big Ten foes (Iowa) that Nebraska has defeated more than once. Penn State fell to 0-4 in games decided by five or fewer points after Saturday’s 65-64 setback at Purdue, the third time it has lost by that margin in league play. Including conference tournaments, the Nittany Lions have dropped eight straight and 28 of their last 30 against Big Ten opponents.
•ABOUT NEBRASKA (9-8 SU, 9-7-0 ATS, 1-4 Big Ten): Shavon Shields averaged five points during the Cornhuskers’ five-game losing streak as he struggled with a knee strain, but appeared to be in fine form with 18 points and nine rebounds against the Buckeyes. “He was so determined; his legs were fresher, too... You could just see he looked fresher physically. But his determination, I mean, nobody was going to stop him,” coach Tim Miles told reporters. Nebraska scored 38 points inside the paint against Ohio State, its second-highest total of the season.
•ABOUT PENN STATE (9-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 0-6 Big Ten): Tim Frazier, who ranks 12th in the country in assists (6.4), is the only player in the Big Ten in the top seven in scoring (16.8), assists and steals (1.7). Frazier moved into 11th place on the Nittany Lions’ all-time scoring list with 19 points versus the Boilermakers and needs 16 more to move into the top 10. Penn State has been outscored 236-175 in the second half since beginning league play, negating its 215-210 advantage heading into intermission.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Cornhuskers won three straight conference games from Feb. 12-18, 2011, as a member of the Big 12 – the last time they prevailed in consecutive games during league play.... Frazier has averaged 26.5 points, eight rebounds, 6.5 assists and 4.5 steals in two career games against Nebraska.... Cornhuskers G-F Terrran Petteway has scored in double figures in 14 straight contests, matching the most by a Nebraska player since Aleks Maric in 2007-08.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the spread 570 times, while NEBRASKA covered the spread 430 times. *EDGE against the spread =PENN ST. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST won the game straight up 662 times, while NEBRASKA won 304 times. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the first half line 507 times, while NEBRASKA covered the first half line 451 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEBRASKA is 3-1 against the spread versus PENN ST since 1997.
--NEBRASKA is 3-1 straight up against PENN ST since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--NEBRASKA is 3-1 versus the first half line when playing against PENN ST since 1997.
--4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NEB is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games.
--NEB is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 12-5 in NEB last 17 road games.
--PSU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 13-6 in PSU last 19 overall.
--Over is 8-3 in PSU last 11 home games.
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#537 C FLORIDA @ #538 CINCINNATI
(TV: 9 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network - Line: Cincinnati -14.5, Total: N/A) - Streaking Cincinnati resides in first place in the American Athletic Conference and goes after its 11th consecutive victory when it hosts Central Florida on Thursday. The No. 16 Bearcats have won all 13 home contests this season and look to protect their one-game lead over defending national champion Louisville. The Knights’ chances of recording an upset will become tougher if leading scorer Isaiah Sykes (head) is unable to play.
Sykes left Central Florida’s loss to Southern Methodist on Saturday after being injured in a collision early in the second half. The 6-6 swingman has five 20-point outings on the season while averaging 15.1 points, so scoring against Cincinnati’s stingy defense will be an arduous task if he sits out. The Bearcats have held 26 consecutive opponents under 70 points and have limited each of the last seven teams they’ve faced to 60 or fewer.
•ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-7 SU, 2-8-0 ATS, 1-4 AAC): Sykes (1,277 career points) is 19 points away from moving into the Top 10 on the school’s all-time scoring list and has 23 20-point outings in his career. The trio of guard Calvin Newell (12.3), and forwards Tristan Spurlock (11.8 points, 6.5 rebounds) and Kasey Wilson (10.5 points, 5.8 rebounds) provides a solid supporting cast for a squad averaging 75.4 points. Defense has been an issue in conference play as the Knights have allowed 84 or more points in three of their four defeats.
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (17-2 SU, 8-5-0 ATS, 6-0 AAC): Senior guard Sean Kilpatrick has nine 20-point outings while averaging a conference-leading 18.6 points and has carried an offense averaging 70.8 points. Kilpatrick ranks fifth in school history with 1,797 career points and only an injury can prevent him from joining legendary Oscar Robertson (2,973 points from 1957-60) as the only players in school history to reach 2,000 points. Forward Justin Jackson (11.6 points, team-best 7.5 rebounds) is the only other player scoring in double digits.
•PREGAME NOTES: Cincinnati is 1-10 against the spread after playing a road game over the last two seasons.... The teams have met just once previously, when Cincinnati recorded a 62-48 win over the Knights during the 1983-84 season.... Central Florida averages a conference-best 40.5 rebounds and is outrebounding opponents by 5.4 per game.... Bearcats F Jermaine Lawrence (toe) will miss his fifth consecutive game.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI covered the spread 522 times, while UCF covered the spread 478 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI won the game straight up 853 times, while UCF won 126 times. In 1000 simulated games, UCF covered the first half line 577 times, while CINCINNATI covered the first half line 423 times. *EDGE against first half line =UCF.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCF is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--UCF is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Thu. games.
--Over is 11-5-1 in UCF last 17 road games.
--CIN is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--Under is 41-10 in CIN last 51 overall.
--Under is 39-14 in CIN last 53 home games.
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#541 COLORADO @ #542 ARIZONA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Arizona -14.5, Total: N/A) - Top-ranked Arizona, one of three remaining undefeated teams, will try to equal a school record with its 19th consecutive victory when it hosts Colorado on Thursday. The Wildcats, already the first team in school history to start 17-0, are coming off a 91-68 victory over archrival Arizona State on Jan. 16 and will face a depleted herd of Buffaloes who are learning to cope with the loss of their top player - junior point guard Spencer Dinwiddie. “We’re just trying to take this one game at a time; this is our dream,” Arizona junior guard Nick Johnson told the Daily Wildcat. “We are living our dreams right now, being the No. 1 team in the country.''
The Wildcats have won their five Pac-12 games by an average of 18.2 points and are the only ranked team in the conference, but their balanced attack should help avoid the possibility of a letdown. “We’re unselfish - everyone is unselfish, not just one guy,” junior guard T.J. McConnell told the Daily Wildcat. “We can score at any position, that’s what makes us so dangerous.” Colorado is also without 6-7 freshman Tre'Shaun Fletcher, who along with Dinwiddie underwent successful knee surgery Monday.
•ABOUT COLORADO (15-4 SU, 10-8-0 ATS, 4-2 Pac-12): The Buffaloes snapped a two-game losing streak with an 83-62 victory over USC on Saturday - their first win since Dinwiddie went down with a season-ending knee injury in a 71-54 loss at Washington on Jan. 12. "I think the guys understand now that (Dinwiddie's) not here; Fletch isn't here," Colorado coach Tad Boyle told the Daily Camera of Boulder. "I think we're past that mental hurdle. The shock value has worn off." Sophomore forward Josh Scott (14.3 points, 9.1 rebounds) continues to be a force down low while junior guard Askia Booker (13.5 points) is the only remaining proven threat from the perimeter.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (18-0 SU, 13-4-0 ATS, 5-0 Pac-12): The Wildcats generally use seven players - the eighth-highest minutes per game on the team is 5.4 - and all seven scored in double figures against Arizona State. Leading the way with an average of 16.3 points is Johnson, who is also an excellent defender and will likely draw the assignment on Booker. Forward Aaron Gordon (12.4 points) leads Pac-12 freshmen with a team-best 7.8 rebounds and has helped Arizona outrebound 17 opponents this season.
•PREGAME NOTES: Sophomore forward Brandon Ashley and 7-0 sophomore center Kaleb Tarczewski (9.9, 6.6) complete the Wildcats' formidable front court.... Colorado has lost all 15 previous meetings against the No. 1 team in the country.... Arizona has scored 48.2 percent of its points in the paint this season while outscoring its opponents by an average of 13.9 points down low. The Buffaloes are 8-0 against the spread versus dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO covered the spread 526 times, while ARIZONA covered the spread 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 844 times, while COLORADO won 143 times. In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO covered the first half line 591 times, while ARIZONA covered the first half line 409 times. *EDGE against first half line =COLORADO.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARIZONA is 4-3 against the spread versus COLORADO since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 4-3 straight up against COLORADO since 1997.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--COLORADO is 4-3 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1997.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--COLO is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--Under is 8-2 in COLO last 10 Thu. games.
--Under is 12-3 in COLO last 15 road games.
--ARIZ is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 Thu. games.
--Under is 10-3 in ARIZ last 13 overall.
--Under is 9-1 in ARIZ last 10 home games.
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#545 UTAH @ #546 ARIZONA ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Pac 12 Network - Line: Arizona State -4.5, Total: N/A) - Getting beaten badly by the No. 1 team in the nation isn't exactly a good thing, but getting seven days before your next game to work out the kinks might be. For Arizona State, it's been a week since rival Arizona beat it by 23 points, and the Sun Devils will be ready to rebound when they play at home for the first time in 17 days by hosting Utah on Thursday. Coach Herb Sendek's squad could use a better performance after dropping two straight and three of their first five Pac-12 contests.
For Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak, it may be a matter of making sure his players don't look past the Sun Devils to their own meeting with the top team in the nation this weekend. The Runnin' Utes have won two straight, including an upset of UCLA last weekend, but are 0-3 on the road this season. Delon Wright is coming off a Pac-12 Player of the Week honor after averaging 17 points, seven rebounds and 5.5 assists in Utah's two wins last week.
•ABOUT UTAH (14-4 SU, 10-2-1 ATS, 3-3 Pac 12): The Utes are excited about the possibilities of freshman guard Kenneth Ogbe from Germany, who looks to be ready to make the next step toward being a solid contributor for the team. The 6-6 Ogbe had 12 points in 12 minutes off the bench against UCLA after scoring just two points in his last four games, showing some of the potential the team saw when he scored 20 at the Utes' intrasquad scrimmage in October. “He's a great example of a kid who stays with it,” Krystkowiak told the Salt Lake City Tribune. “It's just a lot for a college freshman to handle. He's much improved defensively and the entire locker room is off the charts happy for him because he hasn't pouted.”
•ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (13-5 SU, 9-7-0 ATS, 2-3 Pac 12): Senior center Jordan Bachynski has stood tall against most of the Sun Devils' competition this year, leading the nation in blocks with 4.5 per game. He gets to face someone he's used to seeing when the Utes come to town, as younger brother Dallin has become a key reserve for Utah this season and will likely be matched up against Jordan quite a bit, though the elder Bachynski isn't looking to take it easy on anyone. “That's something I pride myself in, being a nice guy, treating people around me like I wanted to be treated,” Jordan Bachynski told USA Today. “You can't really do that if you want to be successful on the basketball court. You have to flip a switch and turn into someone completely different.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Utah has won 12 of its 14 games this season by double figures and is third in the nation in scoring margin at plus-19.9.... Sun Devils G Jahii Carson is 24 points away from the 1,000-point plateau, with only Ike Diogu and James Harden reaching the milestone faster in Arizona State history.... The Utes are third in the country in shooting percentage at 51.0 and rank 10th in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.59).... Utah is 12-1 against the spread versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the spread 526 times, while ARIZONA ST covered the spread 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA ST won the game straight up 587 times, while UTAH won 379 times. In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the first half line 540 times, while ARIZONA ST covered the first half line 460 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UTAH is 6-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST since 1997.
--ARIZONA ST is 4-4 straight up against UTAH since 1997.
--4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--UTAH is 5-2 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA ST since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Utes are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UTAH is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Pacific-12.
--Under is 7-2 in UTAH last 9 overall.
--Under is 7-2 in UTAH last 9 Thu. games.
--Under is 36-14-1 in ASU last 51 overall.
--Under is 16-5-1 in ASU last 22 Thu. games.
--Under is 27-11-1 in ASU last 39 vs. Pacific-12.
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#547 SAN DIEGO @ #548 GONZAGA
(TV: 10:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line Gonzaga -17, Total: N/A) - No. 21 Gonzaga, a team that is getting stronger by the week, returns home after back-to-back road wins to host San Diego on Thursday. Center Sam Dower Jr. was named the West Coast Conference's Player of the Week after a strong weekend, two weeks removed from a back injury. Bulldogs guard Gary Bell Jr. might return this week after missing six games with a broken hand.
His return will only help the league-leading Bulldogs, who top the WCC in scoring margin (plus-14.6), field-goal percentage (51.3), 3-point shooting (42.5 percent) and field-goal percentage defense (39.7). The Toreros, in the middle of a four-game road trip, played solid defense in non-conference games but have struggled since league play began. San Diego still leads the league in 3-point defense and will try to stop Gonzaga's sharp-shooters, including Drew Barham.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO (11-9 SU, 9-7-0 ATS, 2-5 WCC): Johnny Dee leads the Toreros with 16.5 points and Duda Sanadze adds 13.3 points. Dennis Kramer chips in 11.4 points and a team-high 6.4 rebounds while Christopher Anderson adds 10.6 points and a league-best 5.9 assists. The Toreros are giving up 70.4 points on 48.5 percent shooting in league play after holding teams to 60.8 points on 37.7 percent shooting during non-conference games.
•ABOUT GONZAGA (16-3 SU, 9-7-1 ATS, 6-1 WCC): Kevin Pangos leads the Bulldogs, who are 10-0 at home, with 16.2 points and Przemek Karnowski adds 10.1 points and a team-high 7.5 rebounds. Dower averages 14 points on 61.5 percent shooting after recording 46 points and 22 rebounds in his first two starts since his injury. Bell, who was averaging 12.7 points before getting hurt on Dec. 28, needs to get cleared by the medical staff before playing but has been able to do conditioning and shooting drills.
•PREGAME NOTES: Dee leads the league and is ranked fourth nationally in free-throw shooting (92.5 percent) and has hit 34 straight; Pangos (91.2) is second in the league and eighth nationally.... San Diego's past four games have been decided by a combined 16 points, including a two-point loss to San Francisco and a three-point win at Santa Clara.... Gonzaga leads the league in 3-point shooting at 42.5 percent, led by Barham (league-best 48.2 percent), Bell (47.6) and Pangos (44.5).
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA covered the spread 497 times, while SAN DIEGO covered the spread 461 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA won the game straight up 901 times, while SAN DIEGO won 88 times. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO covered the first half line 534 times, while GONZAGA covered the first half line 466 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO is 21-19 against the spread versus GONZAGA since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 36-5 straight up against SAN DIEGO since 1997.
--14 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 21-19 versus the first half line when playing against SAN DIEGO since 1997.
--14 of 23 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Gonzaga.
•RECENT TRENDS
--USD is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--USD is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 Thu. games.
--Under is 12-5 in USD last 17 road games.
--GONZ is 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 Thu. games.
--Under is 8-3 in GONZ last 11 Thu. games.
--Under is 37-14-1 in GONZ last 52 vs. West Coast.
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#563 OREGON @ #564 WASHINGTON
(TV: 11:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Oregon -1.5, Total: N/A) - Oregon, which was ranked No. 9 in the nation just three weeks ago, will try to end a four-game losing streak when it visits Washington on Thursday night. The Ducks began the week a surprising 10th in the Pac-12 standings following a two-week free fall that began with a loss at Colorado, continued with home defeats to California and Stanford, and featured a 80-72 Civil War loss at Oregon State on Sunday. "Each loss gets tougher and tougher to get us out of the hole we are digging," senior guard Johnathan Loyd told the Eugene Register-Guard.
Washington also is sputtering. The Huskies were swept on their Bay Area trip for the first time in six years last week, getting hammered at California, 82-56, and then losing at Stanford, 79-67 on Saturday night. "We've got to go back to the drawing board," freshman point guard Nigel Williams-Goss told the Seattle Times.
•ABOUT OREGON (13-4 SU, 8-6-2 ATS, 1-4 Pac-12): Where would the Ducks be without a pair of high-profile transfers? Junior guard Joseph Young, a transfer from Houston who received a special NCAA waiver to be immediately eligible just before the start of the season, leads the team and ranks fifth in the Pac-12 in scoring (18.0). Mike Moser, a post-grad transfer from UNLV, is second in scoring (14.2) and leads the team in rebounding (7.8).
•ABOUT WASHINGTON (11-8 SU, 7-11-0 ATS, 3-3 Pac-12): Senior guard C.J. Wilcox ranks second in the Pac-12 in scoring (19.7) and leads the conference in free-throw shooting (88.9). However, Wilcox has attempted just six free throws over the past six games and is coming off a season-low nine points at Stanford. Sophomore guard Andrew Andrews (12.6), Williams-Goss (12.3) and Perris Blackwell (10.2) also are averaging in double figures.
•PREGAME NOTES: Oregon leads the Pac-12 and ranks sixth nationally in free-throw percentage (76.9) while Washington (76.0) is second in the Pac-12 and eighth nationally.... Wilcox ranks No. 8 in Pac-12 history in 3-pointers made (266) and needs just six more to catch No. 7 Damon Stoudamire (272), who currently is an assistant with No. 1 Arizona.... Oregon coach Dana Altman was unsure whether 6-11 C Waverly Austin, who missed the Oregon State loss with an illness, would be able to play against the Huskies.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the spread 595 times, while WASHINGTON covered the spread 405 times. *EDGE against the spread =OREGON. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON won the game straight up 633 times, while WASHINGTON won 340 times. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the first half line 534 times, while WASHINGTON covered the first half line 430 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 18-16 against the spread versus OREGON since 1997.
--WASHINGTON is 21-16 straight up against OREGON since 1997.
--14 of 25 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WASHINGTON is 18-17 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON since 1997.
--17 of 25 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Ducks are 5-11 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Washington.
--Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ORE is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--ORE is 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 Thu. games.
--ORE is 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 vs. Pacific-12.
--WASH is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Thu. games.
--WASH is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--Over is 7-3 in WASH last 10 home games.
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#565 STANFORD @ #566 UCLA
(TV: 11 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Line: UCLA -6, Total: N/A) - UCLA looks to bounce back from last weekend’s loss at Utah when the Bruins host Stanford, which has won three straight after opening Pac-12 play with two losses. The game features two of the leading candidates for Pac-12 Player of the Year in UCLA’s Kyle Anderson and Stanford’s Chasson Randle. The two point guards rank among the top four scorers in conference games, and Anderson is coming off a career-high 28-point effort in the 74-69 loss to Utah.
The Bruins averaged 81.4 points in their first five Pac-12 games, but figure to be tested by a Stanford team that held Washington sharpshooter C.J. Wilcox to nine points Saturday. Randle, averaging 15 points in four games against the Bruins, matched his career high with 33 points in the 79-67 victory over the Huskies. "I thought Chasson played a terrific game on both ends of the floor," Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins told reporters. "I thought he defended well and made a number of good plays.”
•ABOUT STANFORD (12-5 SU, 9-5-1 ATS, 3-2 Pac-12): Dawkins has used the same starting five of Randle, Anthony Brown, Josh Huestis, Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic in all 17 games, but the team’s lack of depth remains a concern. Guard Robbie Lemons accounted for Stanford’s only four bench points against Washington, but forward John Gage is making a case for more playing time. The frontline of Huestis, Powell and Nastic continues to impress, and Powell is averaging 10.1 points and 6.7 rebounds in six games against UCLA.
•ABOUT UCLA (14-4 SU, 10-7-0 ATS, 3-2 Pac-12): Guard Jordan Adams averages a team-high 17.4 points, but his performance has been overshadowed by the dynamic play of Anderson, who is averaging 15.5 points, 8.9 rebounds and 6.6 assists. Twin forwards David and Travis Wear combined for nine points and six rebounds against Utah, and the Bruins will need a stronger effort against Stanford’s solid frontcourt. Freshman guard Zach LaVine (12.6 points) has been the Bruins’ top scoring threat off the bench while shooting 45.1 percent from 3-point range.
•PREGAME NOTES: UCLA has won 14 of the last 17 meetings against Stanford, including both encounters last season.... Stanford is 13-33 in Pac-12 road games since 2008-09.... Anderson averaged 11.5 points and 12.5 rebounds in two games against Stanford last season.... The Bruins are 1-11 against the spread after two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the spread 532 times, while STANFORD covered the spread 441 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA won the game straight up 685 times, while STANFORD won 287 times. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the first half line 494 times, while STANFORD covered the first half line 469 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UCLA is 17-15 against the spread versus STANFORD since 1997.
--UCLA is 17-16 straight up against STANFORD since 1997.
--21 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--STANFORD is 17-16 versus the first half line when playing against UCLA since 1997.
--20 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cardinal are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Cardinal are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in UCLA.
--Over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in UCLA.
•RECENT TRENDS
--STAN are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Thu. games.
--STAN are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 3-0-1 in STAN last 4 overall.
--UCLA is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--Over is 7-3 in UCLA last 10 home games.
--Under is 9-4-1 in UCLA last 14 Thu. games.
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