Service Plays Thursday 09/10/09

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NFL DUNKEL


Week 1

Tennessee at Pittsburgh
The defending champion Steelers open the regular season against Tennessee on September 10. The Steelers are the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has Pittsburgh favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5). Here are all of Week One's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10

Game 451-452: Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 140.646; Pittsburgh 148.444
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 33
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 35
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5); Under
 
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NFL SHORT SHEET


Week 1

Thursday, 9/10/2009

TENNESSEE at PITTSBURGH, 8:30 PM ET NFC
TENNESSEE: 7-0 ATS in September
PITTSBURGH: 6-0 Over vs. AFC South



Trend Report

Thursday, September 10

8:30 PM
TENNESSEE vs. PITTSBURGH
Tennessee is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
 
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NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX


Clemson at Georgia Tech
The Tigers look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Clemson is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Georgia Tech favored by just 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+5 1/2). Here are all of Thursday and Friday's picks. Note: I will post the rest of this week's picks later today.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10

Game 301-302: Clemson at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 93.177; Georgia Tech 95.709
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 2 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 5 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+5 1/2); Under

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:

Florida A&M at Winston-Salem
Dunkel Ratings: Florida A&M 60.821; Winston-Salem 36.964
Dunkel Line: Florida A&M by 24
 
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NCAAF SHORT SHEET


Week 2

Thursday, 9/10/2009

CLEMSON at GEORGIA TECH, 7:45 PM ET ESPN
CLEMSON: 6-1 Under off home win by 17+ points
GEORGIA TECH: 16-5 ATS 1st 2 wks of season



NCAAF ADDITIONAL


Week 2

Trend Report

Thursday, September 10

7:30 PM
CLEMSON vs. GEORGIA TECH
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Clemson
Georgia Tech is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Clemson
 
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Joe Wiz

Pay after you win service

NCAAF: 1-4 (-3.40 units)
MLB: 3-0 (+3.00 units)

Early NCAAF bonus Georgia Tech
 

The Degenerate Gambler
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Thank you for your Purchase.
Street Rosenthal


*200 Clemson Tigers +6 -120 (bought up to 6)

Coach Paul Johnson was hardly pleased to watch as GT fumbled five times, drop several passes and fail to come up with more interceptions. "We have a little problem with killer instinct and our intensity levels and playing hard," Johnson said. "That is something we have to work on." For Clemson, C.J. Spiller, who opened the game with a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown, did not play the second half because of injury in Clemson 's 37-14 win over Middle Tennessee on Saturday. Jacoby Ford picked up where Spiller left off, striking for a 61-yard punt return score. Ford also added a 43-yard touchdown catch. Don't make the mistake that many will make on Thursday. There is a huge talent difference between Middle Tennessee State and Jacksonville State. MTSU is fielding their best squad in 4 years.

GT 4-8-1 on Thursday games as Home favorites and Clemson isn't much better at 3-8 ATS on Thursday nights. The trends get better for Clemson is 5-0 ATS vs Ga tech as the away dog. Clemson is 8-1 ATS as a Dog both home or away and we know that GT might as well be a home game for the Clemson fans. Clemson is 9-1 ATS in games 1-3 as Dog and line<10 vs ACC teams. However, GT is 0-8 ATS in games 1-3 as Favorite and line between -4 and -13 since 1991. GT is 1-6-1 ATS on Thursday as Favorite in games early in the season (1-7).

There is parody in the ACC this year. However, it doesn't mean that any of these teams are high caliber. Based of the trends and potential for having fewer turnovers I will safely take the Clemson Tigers as the live road dog on Thursday. Since +5.5 is virtually a dead number, I suggest waiting and letting the public drive this number to 6. If you can get 6 it is icing on the cake, If not then buy it up to 6.
 

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igz1 sports

Thursday Card 1
Wednesday Recap: 2-0 MLB

NFL
3* Under 35 (-110) Tennessee vs Pittsburgh

CFB
3* Clemson +5.5 (-110)
 
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SportsBook Breakers Side Play of the Week

(Thursday Special)

4-Star PITTSBURGH -5 over Tennessee -

In one of the easiest games of week one to evaluate, look for Pittsburgh to control both sides of the ball in a convincing week one victory.The reason that this game is easy to evaluate is because neither team has been overhauled from its 2008 form, sans one major excep-tion. Pittsburgh lost one major contributor from their 2008 team, CB Bryant McFadden, and another solid player in WR Nate Wash-ington, without adding anyone of significance except through the draft. However, expect second-year players RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed to make major steps forward in ‘09. Tennessee added Washington and DT Jovan Haye, but the man Haye’s replaces is the key to the offseason. Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth has left Tennessee for the Washington Redskins and that loss is going to be a major factor in the Titans’ season. When Haynesworth missed games in the last several seasons, the Titans were a different defense. This good but not eliteTitans’ defense will not be enough to dominate teams on the side of the ball that this team has been built to win with.Now many are pointing to the 31-14 Titans’ win over Pittsburgh at home in week 16 of 2008 as a reason to take Tennessee. This is something to use to your advantage as this game is keeping the line for this week one tilt down. For starters, last year’s game was much closer than the score would indicate. The Steelers led 14-10 in the middle of the third quarter and a 83-yard Tennessee interception return for a touchdown in the final minute of the game made the score much more lopsided than the game. The main indicator that this game was a fluke is the 4-0 turnover margin in favor of Tennessee. This is not something that is repeatable or likely to happen again Thursday night. Pittsburgh actually outgainedTennessee by more than 50 yards in last year’s meeting.Pittsburgh has been extremely successful in season openers of late. In Pittburgh’s last six week one games, the Steelers have won all six, five by at least 11 points. In the last four season openers, the Steelers have covered all four by at least 11 points.The Steelers need to start off with a win as they travel to Chicago and Cincinnati the next two weeks. The Steelers are 14-2-1 ATS (8.1 ppg) and 17-0 SU (14.9 ppg) since November 13, 1995 as a home favorite of at least 4 points before week 15 when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks. There is a reasonTennessee was a two-point home dog to the Steel-ers- last year, just as there is a reason Pittsburgh’s futures win total is 10.5 -130, while Tennessee’s is -9 -110. This line would be higher if not for last year’s game and Tennessee’s 13-win season in 2008.

SportsBookBreakers’Prediction:pITTSBURGH24,Tenness ee13
 
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Today's MLB Picks
DUNKEL

Seattle at LA Angels

The Angels come off a 6-3 win last night and look to build on their 9-3 record in John Lackey's last 12 starts after scoring 5 or more runs in the previous game. LA is the pick (-200) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-200). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Wells) 15.466; Colorado (Contreras) 16.146
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-210); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-210); Under

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.419; Washington (Hernandez) 13.339
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-190); Over

Game 905-906: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (West) 14.393; NY Mets (Parnell) 15.379
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over

Game 907-908: Atlanta at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 14.571; Houston (Oswalt) 14.822
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-130); Over

Game 909-910: Minnesota at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 14.646; Toronto (Cecil) 15.895
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+135); Under

Game 911-912: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Washburn) 14.735; Kansas City (Dinardo) 15.428
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150); Under

Game 913-914: Seattle at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.551; LA Angels (Lackey) 15.356
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-200); Over
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Braves Wednesday night.

Today it's the Titans. The surplus is 1,040 sirignanos
 
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Hondo

Hondo ended up treading water last night when the D'backs walk-off walk negated his loss with the Orioles and left him holding at 890 agees below sea level.

Today, he'll triple-dip with Wells, West and Roy Har vey Oswalt -- 10 units apiece on the Reds, Marlins and 'Stros
 
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL

Tennessee at Pittsburgh

The Super Bowl champion Steelers open defense of their sixth title at Heinz Field with a matchup against the AFC rival Titans, who had the NFL’s best regular-season record last year.

Pittsburgh went 12-4 SU (9-7 ATS) to win the AFC North title, followed by a 3-0 SU run in the playoffs (2-1 ATS), holding off Arizona 27-23 in the Super Bowl but failing to cover as a 6½-point favorite. The Steelers finished the season on tears of 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 3,301 yards last year, but he had 15 INTs to go with his 17 TD passes for an offense that finished 22nd in the league (311.9 ypg). Pittsburgh’s defense helped make up for that, leading the league in total defense (237.2 ypg allowed) and scoring defense (13.9 points per game allowed).

Tennessee jumped out to a 10-0 start last season and cruised to the AFC South title with an NFL-best 13-3 record, tying for the league lead by going 12-4 ATS. However, after a first-round bye, the Titans’ season ended quickly with a 13-10 divisional-round playoff loss to Baltimore as a three-point home chalk. QB Kerry Collins, back as the starter in 2009, was effective if not spectacular last year, throwing for 2,676 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs. RBs Chris Johnson (1,228 yards, 9 TDs) and LenDale White (773 yards, 15 TDs) were the difference-makers, paving the way for the league’s seventh-best rushing attack (third in the AFC).

The Titans also finished second to Pittsburgh in scoring defense (14.6 ppg) and were seventh in yards allowed (293.6 per game) in 2008.

These teams met late in the regular season last year, with the Titans rolling to a 31-14 home victory as a one-point home underdog to secure the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Tennessee is 4-2 SU in the last six clashes in this rivalry, but the two teams have split those games at the betting window, alternating ATS wins and losses along the way. The underdog went 5-1 ATS in those six meetings.

Along with their current 7-2 ATS run, the Steelers are on pointspread upswings of 5-0 at home, 4-0 on Thursday and 6-1 in conference play, and they’ve cashed in four straight season openers. Likewise, the Titans are on ATS rolls of 8-0 in September, 16-5 as a pup, and 9-4 inside the AFC, and they cashed in six of their eight road games last season.

Defending Super Bowl champions have won nine consecutive season-openers (7-2 ATS).

For Tennessee, the “under” is on runs of 8-2 on the highway, 7-3-1 as a ‘dog and 6-2 in September. On the flip side, the over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 7-0 in Week 1 action, 13-4 against the AFC and a lengthy 39-16-2 at Heinz Field.

Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last seven contests overall and seven of the last eight battles in Pittsburgh.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH


COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Clemson (1-0 SU and ATS) at (15) Georgia Tech (1-0, 0-0 ATS)

Two teams coming off blowout victories to open the 2009 campaign square off in a key early-season ACC clash, with the 15th-ranked Yellow Jackets hosting Clemson at Bobby Dodd Stadium.

Star running back CJ Spiller ran back the opening kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown and the Tigers rushed for 202 yards en route to Saturday’s 37-14 rout of Middle Tennessee State, getting the money as an 18½-point home favorite. Going back to last season, Clemson is on a 5-2 SU and ATS run (5-1 SU and ATS in the regular season), and the winner has cashed in each of the team’s last 10 lined games.

Georgia Tech had little trouble with Jacksonville State on Saturday, cruising to a 37-17 victory in a non-lined home game. The Yellow Jackets finished with a 497-291 edge in total offense (335-98 on the ground), but they had five fumbles (three lost). Georgia Tech is 10-3 SU in the regular season since coach Paul Johnson took over before last year (7-2-1 ATS in lined games), scoring at least 31 points in its last four victories.

Going back to 2004, Georgia Tech is on a 4-1 run in this rivalry (3-2 ATS), including last year’s 21-17 victory as a two-point road chalk, which Clemson played several days after then-coach Tommy Bowden resigned. The visitor is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, and despite the Yellow Jackets’ triumph last season, the underdog is still 17-3 ATS in the last 20 series clashes.

Georgia Tech finished tied for first with Virginia Tech in the ACC Coastal Division last year, going 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS, including 3-1 at home (2-1-1 ATS). Clemson split its eight conference contests in 2008 (3-5 ATS), going 2-2 SU and ATS on the road.

The Tigers carry various positive and negative ATS trends, including 2-8 against winning teams and 3-8 on Thursday, but 16-5 as an underdog, 6-1 as a road pup and 7-1 when catching between 3½ and 10 points. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are on pointspread swings of 4-0 in September, but 3-7-2 as a home favorite.

The “under” has been the play in the last four Georgia Tech-Clemson meetings. Additionally, the “under” is on runs for the Yellow Jackets of 6-2 in ACC action, 5-2 in Septembers, 15-5 on Thursday and 7-1 after a SU victory. Finally, the Tigers carry “under” trends of 11-4 overall, 7-2 in conference, 7-1 on Thursday and 6-2 after a victory.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Seattle (72-68) at L.A. Angels (83-55)

The Mariners conclude a 10-game, three-city A.L. West road trip at Angel Stadium, with lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith (3-2, 3.88 ERA) trying to halt a four-game Seattle losing skid when he starts opposite Angels veteran John Lackey (9-7, 3.74).

Los Angeles jumped on Seattle early Wednesday, scoring four first-inning runs en route to a 6-3 victory. The Angels have won seven of their last 10, giving up a total of just 21 runs in the process. However, despite putting up a six-spot last night, the Angels’ once-red-hot offense has been held to three runs or fewer in six of its last eight games. Mike Scioscia’s club is on runs of 55-25 overall, 38-18 against southpaw starters and 27-10 on Thursday.

Seattle has lost four in a row following a four-game winning streak and it is now 19-42 in its last 61 games as an underdog, 2-6 in its last eight on the road and 1-5 in its last six on Thursday. On the bright side, the Mariners are on upticks of 7-5 against A.L. West foes and 5-2 versus right-handed starters.

These teams have split the season series, 9-9, but the Mariners are just 9-22 in their last 31 games at Angel Stadium.

Rowland-Smith has gone eight innings in each of his last two starts, allowing an identical three runs in eight innings each time out, losing 3-0 to the Royals in K.C. and then beating the A’s 6-3 on Friday. The southpaw made two starts against the Angels last September, losing them both despite allowing just four earned runs over 13 1/3 innings of work (2.70 ERA).

The Mariners have won four straight games that Rowland-Smith has started against A.L. West foes. Also, including his two starts against L.A., he’s appeared in eight games versus the Halos, going 0-1 with a 3.10 ERA in 20 1/3 innings.

Lackey is just a mediocre 5-5 with a 3.71 ERA in the friendly confines of Angel Stadium. However, Lackey has been brilliant in his last two, holding the A’s to one run on five hits of a 9-1 win back on Aug. 30, and throwing a one-run, complete-game, six-hitter in a 2-1 win in Kansas City on Saturday.

Los Angeles has lost five of Lackey’s last six starts versus teams with a winning record, but it is 20-9 in his last 29 starts versus divisional rivals and 7-1 in his last eight outings versus the Mariners. For his career, the burly right-hander is 11-9 with a 4.12 ERA in 24 starts against Seattle, including 1-1 with a 6.57 ERA in two outings this season

With Lackey on the mound, the “under” is on runs of 9-4 on Thursday and 5-2 against Seattle, but five of his last seven home starts have topped the total and five of his last six starts at Angel Stadium versus the M’s have gone over. Also, both of Rowland-Smith’s starts against L.A. have stayed low.

The under is 20-6-1 in Seattle’s last 27 games versus the A.L. West, but the over is 7-4-2 in the M’s last 12 roadies and 5-0 in their last five on Thursday. Meanwhile, the under for the Angels is on stretches of 6-0-1 overall, 5-2-1 at home and 7-3-1 against the A.L. West. Lastly, the under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 Mariners-Angels battles, including 4-1-1 in Anaheim.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
 
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DUNKEL

WNBA

New York at Detroit
The Shock look to bounce back from last night's loss in Minnesota and build on their 6-2-1 ATS record in their last 9 games following a SU defeat. Detroit is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-6 1/2)

Game 601-602: New York at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: New York 107.701; Detroit 117.305
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 9 1/2; 142
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 6 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-6 1/2); Under

Game 603-604: Indiana at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 110.517; Chicago 111.926
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 137 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pick; 146
Dunkel Pick: Chicago; Under

Game 605-606: San Antonio at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 111.936; Sacramento 109.403
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 154 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 158
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-1 1/2); Under

Game 607-608: Phoenix at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 116.176; Seattle 113.932
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 173
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+6); Over
 

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