THE SPORTS ADVISORS
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
South Carolina at North Carolina St.
South Carolina kicks off its fifth season under coach Steve Spurrier as it travels to across state lines to battle the Wolfpack as these teams open up against each other for the second straight year.
The Gamecocks began 2008 with a 34-0 rout of North Carolina State as a 14-point home favorite which propelled them to a 7-3 start (6-3 ATS). However, South Carolina fell hard from there, losing its final three games by scores of 56-6 (at Florida), 31-14 (at Clemson) and 31-10 (vs. Iowa in the Outback Bowl), never threatening to cover in any of those contests to end the year 7-6 SU and 6-6 ATS.
After getting blitzed at South Carolina to start last season, North Carolina State went on to be the best bet in college football, covering the spread in 10 of its final 11 lined games, including the last eight in a row. The Wolfpack finished the regular season with four consecutive ACC victories (4-0 ATS) before losing to Rutgers 29-23 as a seven-point underdog in the Papajohns.com Bowl.
Both teams return their starting quarterbacks from a year ago. N.C. State redshirt freshman Russell Wilson completed 54.5 percent of his passes for 1,955 yards with a remarkable 17-1 touchdown to interception ratio, and he enters this game having thrown 249 passes without getting picked off. He leads an offense that averaged 23.5 points per game overall last year, while the defense surrendered 26.3 ppg.
South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia took over the starting QB chores in the middle of last season and finished completing just 53.3 percent of his throws for 832 yards with six TDs but eight INTs. The Gamecocks put up 20.8 ppg and defensively, they gave up an average of 15.6 points in the first 10 games but 39.3 in the final three.
In addition to cashing in its final eight contests last year, N.C. State is on a 15-4 ATS roll overall. However, the Wolfpack are otherwise in pointspread slumps of 2-7-1 in non-conference play, 7-19 as a favorite, 3-11 as a home chalk since 2004 and 3-9 in September. Meanwhile, South Carolina also carries negative ATS trends of 5-11-2 overall, 2-6 on the road, 2-5 in non-conference play and 0-4 as an underdog, but it is 8-4-1 ATS as a road pup since Spurrier took over.
The over is 5-0-1 in the Gamecocks’ last six roadies, but otherwise the team is on “under” runs of 6-1 in non-conference play, 5-2 versus the ACC, 5-1-1 in September and 5-2-1 on Thursday. Likewise, N.C. State is on “under” runs of 8-3-2 in non-league action, 10-2-1 as a favorite and 7-1 on Thursday. Finally, last year’s season-opening clash between these schools stayed well under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(16) Oregon at (14) Boise State
One of the most intriguing matchups of college football’s opening weekend comes from Bronco Stadium, where No. 14 Boise State looks for its 50th straight regular-season win on the blue turf as it hosts the 16th-ranked Ducks and new coach Chip Kelly.
The Broncos started last season with 12 consecutive wins, including a 37-32 upset victory at Oregon on Sept. 20. But after steamrolling to their sixth consecutive Western Athletic Conference title and climbing to No. 9 in the polls, they failed to gain a berth in a BCS Bowl. Boise State ended up settling for the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, where it fell 17-16 to 11th-ranked TCU, cashing as a three-point underdog to finish the year 12-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS.
In what was expected to be a rebuilding season in 2008, Oregon ended up tied for second place in the Pac-10 standings and finished 10-3 overall (7-6 ATS) in longtime coach Mike Bellotti’s final year. After losing to Boise State, the Ducks won six of their final eight games, including the last four in a row, capped by a 42-31 victory over Oklahoma State as a 2½-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl.
In last year’s meeting in Eugene, Ore., Boise State jumped out to a 37-13 lead after three quarters then withstood a furious Ducks rally to hold on for the 37-32 win as a 10½-point road underdog. The game featured 888 yards of total offense and six turnovers (four by Oregon).
The Broncos averaged 37.6 points and 440.8 yards per game last year, and they ranked third in the nation in scoring defense (12.6 ppg allowed). QB Kellen Moore, who threw for 386 yards and three TDs in the win at Oregon, is one of 12 returning starters for Boise State (six offense, six defense). Moore last year completed 69 percent of his passes for 3,486 yards, 25 TDs and 10 INTs.
Kelly was the offensive coordinator the last two seasons under Bellotti and last year guided a unit that ranked seven nationally in scoring (42 ppg) and second in rushing (280.1 ypg). Junior QB Jeremiah Masoli (57 percent, 1,744 yards, 13 TDs, 5 INTs; 718 rushing yards, 10 TDs last year) is one of just 10 returning starters for the Ducks.
Boise State cashed in its final three games last year and went 2-2-1 ATS in its five lined home games, but it is 40-17-2 ATS in its last 59 at Bronco Stadium. In fact, the Broncos have won 49 consecutive regular-season games on the Smurf Turf dating to Sept. 8, 2001, though they did lose to Boston College in the 2005 Humanitarian Bowl on their home field. Additionally, Boise is on ATS surges of 4-1-1 against the Pac-10, 5-1 on Thursday and 15-3 when laying 10 points or less.
Oregon is 8-1 in its last nine non-conference games (6-1 ATS in lined action), the lone loss coming to the Broncos last year. Also, under Bellotti, the Ducks were 13-6 ATS in its last 19 as a road ‘dog, and they’re on further pointspread runs of 13-5 in September, 4-1 against the WAC and 14-6 on artificial turf.
The Ducks are on “over” runs of 7-3-2 overall, 16-5-2 in September, 6-0 against the WAC and 6-1-1 on artificial turf. However, the under is 8-3 in Boise State’s last 11 in September and 11-4 in its last 15 non-league games. Finally, last year’s 37-32 shootout easily cleared the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NFL PRESEASON
Philadelphia (1-2, 0-3 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Jets look to continue their Week 4 preseason dominance of the Eagles and avoid their first losing summer since 1996 as these teams close out the exhibition campaign against each other for the ninth straight year.
Philadelphia rallied from deficits off 17-3, 27-13 and 30-20 against the Jaguars a week ago, pulling out a 33-32 victory, never threatening to cover as a seven-point home favorite. Michael Vick made his much-hyped debut in the contest, going 4-for-4 for 19 yards and rushing once for a yard as he played six first-half snaps.
Eagles coach Andy Reid said QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and many of his starters will sit this game out. Backup QB Kevin Kolb will start, with Vick going under center late in the first half and starting the second half at quarterback. A.J. Feeley would follow Vick.
The Jets held off the Giants in their annual Week 3 preseason battle on Saturday, eking out a 27-25 victory as a three-point underdog. New York coach Rex Ryan said rookie QB Mark Sanchez and the rest of his starters will play just one series. Backup Kellen Clemens should follow, but expect rookie Erik Ainge to see the bulk of the action.
New York is 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS since the start of the 2007 preseason, but it is just 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine at the Meadowlands (including neutral-site games against the Giants). The Jets have also failed to cash in five of their last six when laying points in the preseason.
Not only have the Eagles failed to cover in four straight preseason games, they’re 3-8 ATS in exhibition action since the start of 2007 and they’re 1-6 SU (2-5 ATS) as a preseason visitor since 2006. They’ve also dropped seven consecutive Week 4 meetings against the Jets and they’re 2-6 ATS in this preseason rivalry since 2001. Four of those eight battles were decided by three points or less.
Philadelphia has gone over the posted price in six straight preseason games and 10 of its last 11, while New York has topped the total in four straight exhibition outings going back to last year’s 27-20 win over the Eagles. In fact, the over is 4-1 in the last five summer meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and OVER
N.Y. Giants (1-2 SU and ATS) at New England (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)
The annual Giants-Patriots Week 4 battle takes place at Gillette Stadium, with New England likely taking the field without Tom Brady.
Despite a strong performance from Eli Manning (12-for-17, 181 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs), New York fell 27-25 to the rival Jets on Saturday as a three-point chalk. Coach Tom Coughlin normally plays his starters, including Manning, for about a quarter in the preseason finale, but said earlier this week that he may alter that plan. He did acknowledge that young QBs Andre Woodson and rookie Rhett Bomar would see significant action, meaning No. 2 passer David Carr may be the odd man out in this contest.
New England got a last-minute field goal to upend Washington 27-24 on Friday, but fell short as a 4½-point road favorite. Brady was sharp in one half of action against the Redskins, going 12-for-19 for 150 yards and two TDs, but on his final pass, he was driven to the ground by Albert Haynesworth and hurt his shoulder. Brady threw in practice this week and appears fine, but coach Bill Belichick usually doesn’t play Brady or the majority of his starters in Week 4.
The Patriots surprisingly waived No. 2 QB Kevin O’Connell this week, leaving the offense for this game in the hands of Andrew Walter (who joined the Pats on Aug. 4) and rookie free agent Brian Hoyer.
New England is now in a 1-6 ATS exhibition slump (2-5 SU) since the start of last summer, going 0-3 SU and ATS at home. Meanwhile, New York failed to get the money the last two weeks and is 3-5 SU and ATS in true preseason road games since Coughlin took over in 2004. However, the Giants are still 6-1 ATS as a preseason chalk since 2006.
These teams have matched up in the preseason finale each of the last four years, with the Giants going 3-1 SU and ATS, including a 19-14 win as a 2½-point home chalk in 2008. The favorite has cashed in each of the last three preseason battles. Going back to 2001, the home team is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in exhibition clashes.
The under is 9-6 in New York’s last 15 summer affairs, but the over is 9-6 in New England’s last 15 (4-2 last six at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Miami (3-0, 2-0-1 ATS) at New Orleans (3-0 SU and ATS)
For the third straight year, the Dolphins and Saints – both of whom are gunning for their first perfect summer this decade – end the exhibition campaign with a battle at the Superdome.
Miami rallied for a 10-6 victory at Tampa Bay last Thursday, covering in a pick-em contest in a game delayed for an hour in the first half because of a lightning storm. Coach Tony Sparano didn’t tip his hand with regard to playing time tonight, but in last year’s preseason finale against the Saints, starting QB Chad Penning threw just four passes, with backup Chad Henne playing the majority of the game. Expect the same tonight, with Henne followed by rookie Pat White.
New Orleans is coming off the most dominating performance of any NFL team this preseason, plastering the Raiders 45-7 as a three-point road chalk. Saints coach Sean Payton, whose team has won its three games by a combined score of 100-28, said his first-string units will probably play just one series. However, QB Drew Brees (14-for-17, 179 yards, 2 TDs in less than a half vs. Oakland) may sit out as he did last year in Week 4. Mark Brunell will either start or replace Brees, but the bulk of the QB playing time will likely go to third-stringer Joey Harrington.
Since beginning the Sparano era with a 17-6 loss to Tampa Bay last year, the Dolphins have now won six consecutive preseason games (6-0 ATS), going 3-0 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. That includes a 14-10 win in New Orleans as a one-point road pup to end the 2008 preseason. Since 2007, Miami is on a 4-1 ATS roll as an underdog, and it is 4-2 SU and ATS in its last six Week 4 contests, including 3-1 SU and ATS against the Saints.
Although it scored a 17-7 Week 1 win and spread-cover over the Bengals at the Superdome, New Orleans remains just 2-5 SU and ATS at home since Payton took over. The Saints are also 1-5 SU and ATS in preseason finales since 2003.
These teams have met in preseason play seven times since 1999, with the visitor going 6-1 SU and ATS. Also, the underdog cashed in all seven games.
The Saints have topped the total the last two weeks, following a 9-2 “under” run in exhibition play. Miami has stayed low in eight of Miami’s last 10 summer contests, including six of the last seven. Finally, the under is 3-1 in the last four Saints-Dolphins preseason battles and 5-1 in New Orleans’ last six preseason finales.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
Pittsburgh (2-1 SU and ATS) at Carolina (0-3 SU and ATS)
The Panthers attempt to avoid their first winless preseason since 2000 as they close out the summer against the Steelers for the seventh straight year.
Ben Roethlisberger returned to action Saturday and completed 15 of 19 passes for 168 yards while the defense allowed just 135 total yards as the Steelers blitzed the Bills 17-0, cashing as a six-point home favorite. If coach Mike Tomlin sticks with his previous Week 4 game plans, Roethlisberger will play very little if at all tonight (he didn’t play against Carolina last summer and threw just two passes in 2007). Look for veteran backup Charlie Batch to see most of the first-half action, followed by rookie Mike Reilly. No. 3 QB Dennis Dixon remains out with an injury.
Carolina’s lackluster preseason continued with Saturday’s 17-13 loss to Baltimore as a 3½-point home favorite, getting outgained 421-281. John Fox said if his starters go at all tonight, they’ll only be on the field for one or two series, though QB Jake Delhomme has sat out the exhibition finale against Pittsburgh each of the last two years. If that trend continues, look for Matt Moore (who didn’t play last week) to get the bulk of the work, with rookie Hunter Cantwell also seeing action. Delhomme’s backup – veteran Josh McCown – probably won’t play.
The Panthers are mired in a 2-8 SU and ATS preseason funk, going 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS at home in this span and 1-4 ATS as a favorite.
The Steelers are 3-10 ATS in its last 13 preseason road games, but two of the spread-covers came in Carolina in 2005 and 2007, both outright upsets. In fact, Pittsburgh and Carolina have capped the preseason against one another the last six years, with the Steelers going 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four. Also, the ‘dog is 5-0 ATS (3-2 SU) in the last five exhibition meetings, with four of those decided by four points or fewer.
The under is 14-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 16 preseason games (3-0 this year) and 7-1 in its last eight away from home. Also, the under is 5-2 in Carolina’s last seven summer home contests, and the last three preseason clashes between these teams have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (73-60) at Philadelphia (76-54)
The Giants will try to make it two of three at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia when they send ace Tim Lincecum (13-4, 2.33 ERA) to the mound opposite the Phillies and veteran right-hander Pedro Martinez (2-0, 4.50).
San Francisco got a gem of an outing from newly acquired Brad Penny on Wednesday, as he tossed eight shutout innings against Philadelphia, giving up just five hits in a 4-0 win. The Giants improved to 6-2 in the last eight matchups with the Phillies, but they are still just 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in Philadelphia.
The Giants are on positive runs of 6-2 overall, 37-17 as favorites and 5-1 against right-handers. Meanwhile, despite Wednesday’s setback, the Phillies remain on a plethora of positive streaks, including 37-17 overall, 22-9 at home, 6-1 against the N.L. West, 5-0 as an underdog and 11-6 against right-handed starters.
Lincecum is coming off Friday’s 2-0 home victory over the Rockies in which he scattered eight hits and three walks over eight scoreless innings, striking out eight. The right-hander has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in six of his last nine outings, and the Giants are 5-2 in his last seven starts and 4-1 in his last five as a road chalk.
Lincecum is 5-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 road outings in 2009 and 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies, including a 2-0 victory on Aug. 1 in which he allowed seven hits and a walk in eight shutout innings. He’s allowed six runs (only two earned) in his last three efforts against Philadelphia covering 22 innings (0.82 ERA).
The Phils are a perfect 4-0 when Martinez has taken the hill, but he’s only pitched five innings at home because of rain delays, allowing one run on three hits in starts against the Diamondbacks and Braves. The veteran hurler has only faced the Giants twice in his career, with the last time coming in June 2008 when he allowed three runs in six innings of a 9-6 Mets win.
With Lincecum on the hill, the “under” is on runs of 7-2 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-1 against the A.L. East, 5-0 versus winning clubs and 6-1 on Wednesday, but four of Lincecum’s five starts against the Phillies have topped the total. As a team, the Giants have stayed under the total in 15 of 21 as favorites and seven of 10 on Thursday. Philadelphia is on several “under” runs as well, including 6-1 overall, 8-1 against winning teams, 20-7 against right-handers and 20-8 in the third game of a series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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