Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers - Thursday April 9, 2009 10:35 pm
Pick: 1 unit ATS: Los Angeles Lakers -8 (-110)
This pick on the LA Lakers is based mostly on the series dominance that Lakers have had over Denver during the last three years, with a 9-1 SU record (8-2 ATS) in the last ten games of the series, including going 5-0 SU and ATS at home vs Nuggets, with an average MOV of 16 points, including a 14 point home win in November (after the Billups-Iverson trade made by Denver earlier that month). But then a funny thing happened in the most recent game of the series, in denver in late February, where the Lakers totally stunk up the place for most of the game and lost, 79-90 for their lowest offensive output and probably their worst overall performance TY, certainly their least energetic. But whatever was causing their malaise that night, we don't expect a repeat of that tonite, with this not only a revenge game for LA but also an important game in their quest for the best overall record in NBA and HCA throughout the playoffs -- and in that race, they have the tiebreaker over Cavs (having beaten them twice TY), whom they trail by one game, and seem to have the easier remaining schedule of the two, with only one road game left, tomorrow night in Portland, while Cavs have two roadies (at Philly and Indy) and have been playing like crap on the road lately, plus a home game against boston.
And while denver is likely to be the more tired of the two teams, having played last night at home, a game in which denver stars CA and Nene each logged about 38 minutes, the Nuggets have not been too bad TY away in back to backs, with a 10-10 overall ATS mark in that mode (with average margin of loss just 3 points), including 5-7 away. And LA, playing with one day of rest, like they are tonite, is only 16-26 ATS in that rest mode, with an average MOV of just 6 points. Moreover, in games where Lakers have had the "rest advantage' over an unrested team, like tonite, they are just 1-4 ATS. And two of denver's best road performances TY as heavy road dogs of 8> points (an upset win by 9 at orlando and a six point covering loss at utah), came in the second game of a back to back, and after a win, no less, generally considered an unfavorable situation for the road team. So while Denver is playing in this generally unfavorable "win and travel" situation, based on the foregoing, we don't see that as much of a factor favoring the Lakers.
And speaking of the Lakers, they have been a pretty good 7-4 ATS in tonite's point spread range of 4-9.5 points, which includes 3-2 ATS in their games since jan 1 vs the NBA's elite, with covering home wins over Cavs, Rockets and Spurs, but a 6 point home loss to Magic and a 7 point non-covering win over Mavs, all for an average MOV of 9 points in those five recent representative home games. And while Denver has had its problems in second half of the season getting focused and motivated for road games when they are favored, that has not been a problem when they are 'dogged' on the road against good teams, having gone 3-0 ATS in their 3 such games since jan 1, with the aforementioned ATS wins at orlando and utah, plus a covering two point loss at Houston.
One final factor is the expected return of Laker Center Andrew Bynum, who has been out for over two months with a serious knee injury (torn MCL). While that will clearly be a positive for the Lakers in the long run and in the playoffs, we're not quite sure if it will help them or hinder them in this game, as teams which have adjusted to the absence of a star player (as Lakers clearly have with bynum) often welcome him back into the line up with open arms, but then have trouble re-adjusting to his presence, more so on offense than defense.
So based on all the foregoing, we recommend a small play on the LA Lakers, but only for one unit and only at a line of -8 or less.
Game update -- Thursday AM
As our subscribers know, we released this pick last night, at the opening line of -8, which is something we often do (releasing picks at favorable "prices," using the early, overnight lines which are available on the Top Ten picks menu), especially when we expect the line to move against us, as we did here -- thus our name, Nite Owl Sports. And predictably, the line has now climbed to -9 at most sports books, which we believe is a point too many to give this good Denver team, even though the Lakers should be motivated (for a change) for this game. And as is our typical MO when we are not wild about the full game line for a game, we will do an in depth survey today of the scoring patterns of both teams, using recent "representative games" of Lakers as medium priced home faves against teams with a talent level similar to denver's, and Denver games as medium priced road dogs against A teams like Lakers. And based on the results, we will determine if there is any value betting the Lakers vs the first quarter and/or the first half line. Splitting our plays (and thus allocating the risk) among the different available lines is something that we sometimes do, but only when our research clearly supports it -- like last nite, for example, when we played the SA Spurs on the 1Q, 1H and full game lines, victorious the first two due to a 33-16 SA first quarter and 49-47 first half, but then losing the full game play when Portland came on strong in the second half, incurring just a minimal loss on SA for the game due to having won our 1Q and 1H plays on them.
