THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Minnesota (19-6, 9-10-1 ATS) at Michigan (16-10, 11-9-1 ATS)
Two teams very much in need of wins with March approaching get together when Minnesota travels to Ann Arbor for a Big Ten battle with Michigan.
The Gophers fell to Penn State 68-63 Saturday as a 2½-point road underdog and are now 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four contests, with all three SU losses coming on the road. Minnesota has put up an average of 68.3 ppg this season, about five points better than its opponents (63.5). But in their past five outings, the Gophers are averaging just 57.8 ppg and giving up 59.6, including a 76-47 meltdown at Michigan State catching 8½ points.
The Wolverines edged Northwestern 70-67 Sunday in overtime as a four-point underdog, ending a 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS) skid. Like Minnesota, Michigan’s numbers have been down significantly in recent contests. The Wolverines average 66.9 ppg on the year, but they’ve scored 58 points or less in six of their last 10 games, including a dismal offensive effort in last week’s 54-42 home loss to Michigan State as a four-point pup.
Minnesota won and covered in both of last season’s meetings with Michigan, including a 77-65 road win as a three-point favorite. In fact, the favorite is on a 4-0 ATS surge in this rivalry.
Minnesota is 7-6 SU and 5-8 ATS in the Big Ten this season, going 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road. Michigan is 6-7 SU and 4-8 ATS in conference action, including 4-3 SU and ATS at home, with the winner cashing in all seven of those home outings.
The Gophers are on a 5-2 ATS uptick in Thursday games, but the ATS trends spiral downward from there. Along with their current 0-4 ATS skid (all in the Big Ten), the Gophers are on pointspread slides of 0-5 on the road, 0-4 after a SU loss, 1-5 after a non-cover and 1-5 against winning teams. The Wolverines are on pointspread runs of 4-1 on Thursday and 8-3 in Ann Arbor, but they are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine Big Ten games.
The under for Minnesota is on tears of 4-1 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 9-2 after a SU loss and 9-3 on Thursday, and the under for Michigan is on rolls of 5-1 overall, 5-0 on Thursday, 5-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 4-1 at home and 17-6-1 in Big Ten action. In addition, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in seven of the last nine meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(22) Washington (19-6, 15-8 ATS) at (20) UCLA (19-6, 12-12 ATS)
Washington aims to take command of the Pac-10 race when it visits Pauley Pavilion to face UCLA, which needs a win to stay firmly in the hunt for its fourth consecutive regular-season conference title.
The Huskies rolled to a pair of home wins last week, whipping Oregon State 79-60 as a 16½-point chalk last Thursday and following up with Saturday’s 103-84 rout of Oregon laying 16 points on Saturday. Washington, which has won and covered three in a row and is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five starts, has averaged 76.9 ppg on the road this year (below its season average of 80.4), while allowing 73.1 ppg (slightly above its season average of 69.8).
The Bruins took the collar in the desert Southwest last weekend, losing to Arizona State 74-67 Thursday as a 1½-point chalk, then tumbling to Arizona 84-72 as a five-point favorite. However, UCLA has had no such troubles at home lately, going 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games at Pauley and winning those contests by an average of more than 22 ppg (85.8-63), holding all four opponents to 66 points or less. In fact, UCLA is 14-1 in its arena, with 13 of those victories being by 15 points or more.
Washington has cashed in the last four meetings in this rivalry, going 3-1 SU, including an 86-75 home rout as a two-point chalk last month. The host, though, has won six consecutive series clashes and is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
The Huskies are 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in Pac-10 play this season, including 5-2 SU and ATS on the road. The Bruins are 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS in conference, going 4-1 SU and ATS at home.
The Huskies are on pointspread rolls of 6-2 on the highway, 4-0 as a road underdog and 8-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight roadies catching seven to 12½ points. The Bruins are on ATS streaks of 6-0 at home laying 7 to 12½ points, 14-6 on Thursday and 18-8 coming off a pointspread setback.
The under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two, and the under is on 6-2 rolls for both teams against opponents with a winning record. However, the over for Washington is on tears of 11-1 overall, 9-0 after a SU win, 6-0 on Thursday, 5-1 on the road and 19-7 against the Pac-10. Additionally, the over has hit in eight straight games for UCLA and is on further runs for the Bruins of 4-0 at home, 7-0 in Pac-10 play, 7-0 as a favorite, 7-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and 5-0 on Thursday and 4-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
San Antonio (35-17, 25-25-2 ATS) at Detroit (27-25, 20-32 ATS)
The struggling Pistons try to right the ship when they host the Spurs, who resume an eight-game road trip with a stop at The Palace of Auburn Hills.
Detroit returned from the All-Star break Tuesday night and suffered its fourth consecutive SU and ATS loss, a 92-86 home setback to Milwaukee as a 6½-point chalk. The Pistons are now 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games, including 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS at home. Detroit’s normally stout defense has been nonexistent of late, allowing four of the last five opponents to score 99 points or more, allowing an average of 105.2 ppg during this stretch.
The Spurs also came out of the break Tuesday and tumbled in a 112-107 overtime setback to the Knicks as a four-point road favorite, their second consecutive SU and ATS loss, following a 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS surge. San Antonio has scored 105 points or more in seven of its last nine games, while allowing 99 or more six times during this stretch.
The SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the Spurs’ last 10 games and 18-1 ATS in Detroit’s last 19.
Detroit has cashed in the last four clashes in this rivalry, winning the last three games SU, including an 89-77 road victory in December as a 5½-point pup. The visitor is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, but the Pistons have cashed in six of the last eight battles in Detroit.
The Pistons are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games against Southwest Division foes, but they are otherwise on pointspread slides of 7-22 at home (0-8 in the last eight), 0-5 playing on one day’s rest, 0-9 against winning teams, 5-16 after a SU loss and 2-6 against the Western Conference. The Spurs are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the Eastern Conference, but they are on pointspread upswings of 6-2-1 overall, 5-2-1 on the road, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-0-1 on one day’s rest.
The over for San Antonio is on rolls of 8-1 overall and 7-1 on the road, and the over has hit in five of the Pistons’ last six overall. However, the under for the Spurs is on runs of 7-1 against winning teams and 7-1 against the Central Division, and the under for Detroit is on stretches of 7-1 against winning teams, 16-5-1 against the Southwest Division and 17-8-1 after a SU loss. Finally, the total has stayed low in seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams, including three straight at The Palace.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Boston (44-11, 31-24 ATS) at Utah (31-23, 28-26 ATS)
The Celtics, who resume a lengthy Western Conference road trip after enjoying a week off, travel to EnergySolutions Arena for a meeting with the Jazz.
Boston opened its six-game swing with back-to-back wins at New Orleans and Dallas, topping the Hornets 89-77 as a seven-point chalk on Feb. 11, then beating the Mavericks 99-92 laying 3½ points last Thursday. The Celts are on a 15-2 SU tear (12-5 ATS), and in their last five games, they’re racking up an average of 101.2 points – just below their season average of 101.3 – while allowing 96.8 ppg. In fact, Boston has scored 99 points or more in six of its last seven outings and 12 of its last 16.
Utah pounded Memphis 117-99 Tuesday night as a 10½-point home chalk to move to 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games, cracking 100 points in all five of those wins. Like Boston, the Jazz are clicking offensively, scoring 100 points or more in eight of their last nine games, including topping 110 points in four of their last five. However, Utah is also surrendering 107.8 ppg in its last four.
Utah is on a 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) run in this rivalry, narrowly covering as a 9½-point pup in a 100-91 loss in Beantown in December. The visitor is on a 5-1 ATS roll, and Boston is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes in Salt Lake City.
The Celtics are in a 1-4 ATS rut in their last five games following a SU win, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 11-4 overall, 8-1 on the highway, 8-2 after a spread-cover, 7-2 against winning teams and 26-12 against the West. The Jazz are a lengthy 56-27-2 ATS in their last 85 home games and are on additional ATS upticks of 4-0 against the Atlantic Division and 11-5 going on one day of rest, but they are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight against winning teams.
For Boston, the under is on stretches of 26-9 on the highway and 7-1-1 against the Northwest Division, and the under for Utah is on a 6-1-1 run against the Atlantic Division. But the over the Celts is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win and 5-2 against the West, and the over for Utah is on tears of 17-6 overall, 7-2 at home, 4-1 against the East and 8-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Furthermore, these squads have cleared the posted price in five of their last six matchups in Utah, and the over is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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