Service Plays Sunday 9/8/13

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[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h]
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/3)
Game 453-454: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.298; Buffalo 131.258
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 10 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+10 1/2); Over
Game 455-456: Tennessee at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 122.529; Pittsburgh 135.053
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-7); Over
Game 457-458: Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.997; New Orleans 136.658
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 54
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under
Game 459-460: Tampa Bay at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.977; NY Jets 122.921
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over
Game 461-462: Kansas City at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 116.824; Jacksonville 125.182
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Under
Game 463-464: Cincinnati at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 136.753; Chicago 132.177
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3); Under
Game 465-466: Miami at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 129.760; Cleveland 132.640
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3; 44
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1); Over
Game 467-468: Seattle at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 145.320; Carolina 139.276
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Under
Game 469-470: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 139.523; Detroit 127.632
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12; 50
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4 1/2); Over
Game 471-472: Oakland at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.852; Indianapolis 136.150
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-9 1/2); Under
Game 473-474: Arizona at St. Louis (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 124.599; St. Louis 126.510
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 44
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over
Game 475-476: Green Bay at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.355; San Francisco 145.495
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4 1/2); Under
Game 477-478: NY Giants at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 135.438; Dallas 133.983
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Over
 
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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Sunday, September 8

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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) at BUFFALO (6 - 10) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 154-113 ATS (+29.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 83-59 ATS (+18.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (6 - 10) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 91-60 ATS (+25.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (14 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 9) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (7 - 9) at NY JETS (6 - 10) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 14) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 14) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (10 - 7) at CHICAGO (10 - 6) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (7 - 9) at CLEVELAND (5 - 11) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (12 - 6) at CAROLINA (7 - 9) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (10 - 7) at DETROIT (4 - 12) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 21-41 ATS (-24.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (4 - 12) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 6) - 9/8/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (5 - 11) at ST LOUIS (7 - 8 - 1) - 9/8/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (12 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 5 - 1) - 9/8/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 151-108 ATS (+32.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (9 - 7) at DALLAS (8 - 8) - 9/8/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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NFL

Week

Trend Report

Sunday, September 8

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NY JETS
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Buffalo's last 15 games when playing at home against New England
Buffalo is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. PITTSBURGH
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Tennessee
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. CAROLINA
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Seattle is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. JACKSONVILLE
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Green Bay is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 10 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 8 games
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games at home
 
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NFL

Week 1

Patriots @ Bills—New England is 23-2 in last 25 series games, 8-1 in last nine visits here, with seven of eight wins by 13+ points, but 36-year old Brady is without his top five receivers from LY, so hard to say how their passing attack will fare. Since ’04, NE is 33-20-1 as AF; they’re 17-6-2 in last 25 games as a divisional AF, 5-2 in last seven road openers, 6-3 as favorite in road openers. New coach, new QB for Buffalo, but not sure if it'll be Kolb or rookie Manuel yet. Bills are 3-9-1 in last 13 games as an AFC East home dog, 5-9-1 overall as home dog since 2008. Bills covered four of last five home openers, with four of those five games going over total. Average total in last four series games is 70.8. Over last three seasons, Patriots are +70 in turnovers, Buffalo -31.

Titans @ Steelers—Pittsburgh won its last ten home openers, going 8-2 vs spread, 7-2 as favorites; their last four home openers stayed under total, as have 13 of Titans’ last 16 road openers. Pitt won three of last four games vs Titans, winning by 3-8-21 points. Tennessee lost four of last five visits here, with three of last four losses by 21+ points- they’re 6-6 as road dogs under Munchak, 5-4 in non-divisional games. Since ’06, Titans are 28-19-1 as single digit dogs. Steelers are -23 in turnovers last two years, after being +31 from ’04-’10; they’re going to try and run ball more, to take heat off defense/Big Ben, but OL hasn't looked good in exhibitions. Over last three years, Pitt is 9-6 vs spread in non-divisional home games; they’re 22-22-1 as HFs under Tomlin. Titans lost 16-14/ 38-10 in road openers under Munchak.

Falcons @ Saints—Payton returns to Superdome sidelines after year suspension. Saints are 11-3 in last 14 renewals of this 46-year old rivalry; Falcons lost eight of last nine visits here, with four of eight losses by 8+ points. Saints covered five of last six NFC South home games; they’re 8-4 in last dozen games with spread of 3 or less points, but under Smith, Atlanta is 23-10-2 vs spread in low spread games. Falcons are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 tries as road dog, but just 2-5 in last seven as a divisional road dog- they’ve lost five of last six road openers, with seven of their last nine going under total; Payton is 3-0-1 in last four tries as favorite in HO. 11 of Saints’ last 16 Superdome openers also stayed under, but nine of last 11 series totals were 48+.

Buccaneers @ Jets— Revis returns to old home with former Rutgers coach Schiano; Tampa Bay is 26-47 SU on road since ’04, 6-11-1 vs spread in last 18 games as road favorite. Bucs lost five of last seven road openers, with four of last five going over total. Rex is 3-1 in home openers here; they were 4-13 in last 17 HOs before he became coach. Jets won nine of ten games vs Bucs, winning all six played here, with four of six wins by 15+ points. Jets are 3-2 as home dogs under Ryan, but 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games vs NFC foes. Gang Green is 15-10 under Ryan in games with spread of 3 or less points, 10-7 at home. Not sure how much home field edge Gang Green has if they get off to rough start; two new coordinators, HC with reduced influence, major QB dilemma.

Chiefs @ Jaguars—Two teams breaking in new coaches; Reid is only one of eight new NFL HCs this year who has been HC previously- he’s a good one, winning his last four road openers, but Chiefs are 3-6 in this series, losing four of five visits here, with only win in ’01. This is teams’ first meeting in three years. Since 2007, KC is 1-10-1 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points- they were 0-5 LY in games with spread of 3 or less, part of reason why coaching change was made- they’re 3-8 in. Bradley was DC in Seattle; since ’07, Jags are 8-18 vs spread as dogs of 3 or less points- they’re 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games as home dog, 3-8 as non-divisional home dog. Over last five years, Chiefs are just 12-28 SU on road- they are 1-2 as road favorites since ’07, favored in only three of last 48 road tilts.

Bengals @ Bears—Edge to Cincy for having same HC/QB/coordinators as LY, while Chicago brought QB guru Trestman in from CFL to mentor star signal caller Cutler. Smith was just 4th coach since 1990 to get canned after winning 10+ games that season- new systems usually take some getting used to. Cincy won four of last five series games; they won four of five visits here, are 13-4-1 vs spread in last 18 games vs NFC opponents. Bengals are 4-10 in last 14 road openers (4-5 as road dog in road openers) with five of last six going over total. Bears won seven of last eight home openers, with over 7-4 in their last 11. Cincy is 10-6-1 vs spread in last 17 games as an underdog. Since ’07, Bears are 12-19-1 as home favorites, 7-13-1 in non-divisional games, but they’re 6-4-2 vs spread in last dozen games vs NFC foes.

Dolphins @ Browns— Not sure what to expect from Browns’ new head coach Chudzinski, but OC Turner is superior coordinator and will improve play of 2nd-year QB Weeden, who is older than most 2nd-year guys, having played six years of minor leaguer baseball. This is 15th season for “new” Browns; they’ve been 1-0 once in previous 14 years, going 1-13 vs spread in home openers, with seven of last ten home openers staying under total. Miami lost eight of last nine road openers, with 14 of last 19 (and last four in row) staying under total- they’ve lost last four games vs Browns, last two by total of four points. Fish lost last three visits here, by 10-1-22 points. Unusually strong stat for Dolphins: since 2003, under a few coaches, they’re 32-16-2 vs spread in non-divisional road games.

Seattle @ Carolina—Seahawk defense will be weakened early in year by 4-game suspensions, but they’re fashionable pick to win NFC and have quality depth; Hawks are 14-5-1 vs spread in non-divisional games last two years, but they’ve also lost last six road openers and failed to cover last eight. Seattle is 14-34 SU on road last six years; they’re 1-4 as road favorites under Carroll, 5-12-1 in last 18 games on grass, 5-12 in last 17 games as a favorite of 3 or less points. Cam Newton gets new OC (Chudzinski left to be Browns’ HC) in former Bama coach Shula, not an upgrade. Panthers are 9-13 as home dog since 2006, 7-13 in last 20 non-divisional home games, 2-7 in last nine home openers (3-10 vs spread in last 13) and 7-6 in last 13 games where spread is 3 or less points. Home team won five of six series games; Seahawks’ 16-12 win here LY was their first in three visits here, in state where Russell Wilson played three of his four college years.

Minnesota @ Detroit—Vikings traded up to get WR Patterson in effort to balance offense by upgrading passing game to take pressure off star RB Peterson. Minnesota is 22-5 in last 27 series games (won 20-13/34-24 LY); home teams won five of last seven in series, as Vikes lost two of last three here after winning seven of eight here before that. Minnesota’s last five series wins are by 7+ points, their last seven series losses are by 7 or less points. Since 2008, Vikings are 3-8 as divisional road underdog; they’ve lost seven of last nine road openers, dropping last three by 5-7-3 points. Detroit is 11-5-1 vs spread in last 17 home openers, with four of last five going over total; Lions are 3-5-2 in last 10 tries as a divisional home favorite- they’re 8-3-4 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points, 8-8 as home favorite overall in Schwartz era. Seven of Vikings’ last nine road openers stayed under the total.

Oakland @ Indianapolis—Odd stat on Raiders; they’re 11-23 vs spread in last 35 games as a non-divisional road underdog, 18-2 in last 20 games as a divisional road dog- overall since ’08, they’re 22-17 as road dogs, but covered just four of last 19 games on artificial turf. Colts lost OC Arians to Arizona, brought in Luck’s old OC from Stanford; they’re 11-17 as home favorites since ’08, 3-7 in non-divisional games. Indy won eight of last ten home openers, covering six, but most of that was with Manning under center. Oakland covered four of last five as an underdog in road openers; QB Pryor is making his first road start. Raiders are 8-6 in series, losing last three, with road team winning four of last five meetings; this is Oakland’s first visit to Indy since 2004- they won two of three prior visits. Over is 10-3-1 in last 14 Raider road openers.

Arizona @ St Louis—Cardinals hired Arians as HC, Palmer as QB to upgrade offense that finished last in rushing three of last five years, and gave up 162 sacks last three years (-49); they’re 4-20 SU in last 24 road games, but have won seven of last eight visits here, their former home. Rams upgraded OL and have new WRs, expectations are higher for QB Bradford in Fisher’s second year as HC. St Louis swept Redbirds 17-3/31-17 LY, after losing 10 of previous 11 games in this divisional rivalry. St Louis has no recent successful trends; they’re 9-19 in last 28 games as a home favorite, 2-10 in divisional games; they’ve lost five of last six home openers (1-6-1 as favorite in HO’s), while Arizona won four of last five road openers, covering all five games under previous HC Whisenhunt (now OC in San Diego). Cardinals are 8-6-1 as road dog last two years, but covered just two of last seven as a road dog vs NFC West opponents. Four of last six series totals were 32 or less.

Green Bay @ San Francisco—Last year was first time in decade Super Bowl loser covered its opener the next year. 49ers beat Pack twice LY, 30-22 in opener at Lambeau, then 45-31 in home playoff game, ending 1-13 series skid (five of 13 losses were playoff games) vs Green Bay, which is 6-2 in last eight visits here, with last win back in ’06. Niners are +37 in turnovers in two seasons under Harbaugh; they were -21 the four years before that; they’ve got injury issues (Crabtree/Willis) early this year, and are still looking for decent backup QB behind Kaepernick, with Smith off to KC. SF is 11-3-1 as HF under Harbaugh, 8-1 in non-divisional games- since ’09, they’re 23-7-1 SU at home. Packers won six of last seven road openers; they’re 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy, but they’re 4-6 in last ten non-divisional road games. Niners won six of last eight home openers; they’re 8-1-1 vs spread in last ten. Last five series totals were all 49+.

Giants @ Dallas—Cowboys are hideous 3-17 as home favorite under Garrett; they’ve covered only five of last 21 divisional home games, are 5-12-1 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. Enter 73-year old (new DC) Monte Kiffin, whose mission is to upgrade Dallas defense that allowed 34 ppg in losing its last four home games to Giants, who are 8-3 in last 11 games vs Cowboys, with road team winning five of last six meetings. Big Blue covered seven of last ten tries as road underdog, 14 of last 21 divisional road games- they’re 14-7-1 vs spread in last 22 games where spread was 3 or less. Cowboys are 5-2 in last seven home openers, but failed to cover last five, all as favorites. Giants are 7-5 as dogs in road openers, 4-3 in last seven SU; 11 of their last 13 road openers went over total. Giants have some injury issues on OL, potential problem for less-than-mobile QB Manning. Seven of last eight series totals were 45+.
 
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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Kansas City at Jacksonville (Sunday 9/08 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Jacksonville +4 (-105) at 5Dimes

In my ESPN podcast in July I identified the Jaguars as a great bet-on team this season. In a nutshell, I feel that this team will have line value all season long. Exhibit A is this weekend where they are getting 4 points at home to a team that won only two games last season! Kansas City has a lot to be hopeful for with Andy Reid and a new quarterback taking over. Reid's West Coast offense has potential but with current personnel, is that really a good fit? The most dangerous weapon for the Chiefs is Jamaal Charles and that means they are going to run a lot to have a chance to be effective. To make matters worse, right now Charles has a strained foot, but will play. Alex Smith will take over at QB, and while he was respectable in San Francisco, the personnel he had to work with there was a whole lot better than what he will have in KC. A healthy Maurice Jones-Drew will impact the Jacksonville offense, as he sat out most of last year with an injury, and he is a difference maker. The solid running game, and the Chiefs' lack of pressure (five sacks from D-line a year ago), and just 13 takeaways could offer some openings for Blaine Gabbert who while not great, is underrated. The Jags defense has been upgraded with five free-agent signings on the defensive end. This team has made a habit of coming out prepared, going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 season openers. In what looks like a toss-up game to me, the points are crucial here for the home dog. Take Jacksonville.
 
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From This Week's BEST BETS
STATFOX SCOTT'S PICK

ARIZONA (473) AT ST. LOUIS (474)
Latest Line: Rams -4.5; Total: 41

The Cardinals' quarterback situation was so disastrous last season that it's hard to hold against them anything that took place after their impressive September. Arizona's defense is better than many think, particularly the secondary, against which the revamped Rams attack might struggle at this early point in the season. I also like the fact that non-favorites that had a win percentage of between 25% and 40% the previous season are 24-3 ATS over the past 10 seasons against a conference opponent that had a losing record the previous year. I expect a low-scoring affair that will be decided by no more than a field goal.
PLAY ON: ARIZONA +4.5
 
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Stephen Nover | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 8 2013 1:00PM
471 OAK / 472 IND UNDER 47.0 Hilton double-dime bet

Stephen Nover | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 8 2013 4:25PM
475 GBP / 476 SFX UNDER 49.0 Hilton double-dime bet

Stephen Nover | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 8 2013 4:25PM
473 ARI 5.0(-110) Hilton vs 474 STL double-dime bet
 
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NFLBettingPicks
Kevin

2 UNIT = Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts - COLTS -9.5 (+106)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.12 units)
 
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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

NFL
TENNESSEE @ PITTSBURGH -7
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS-9.5

Teaser 7pts - Pittsburgh (PK) & Indianapolis(-2.5)
 
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BeatYourBookie

10* Play Seattle -3.5 over Carolina (NFL TOP PLAY)
1:00 PM EST

Seattle is 11-1 ATS when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points
Seattle is 19-7 ATS vs. NFC Conference Opponents the last two seasons

10* Play Indianapolis -9.5 over Oakland (NFL TOP PLAY)
1:00 PM EST

Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS at home when the total posted is greater than 45.5 points
Indianapolis is 2-0 ATS when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

10* Play Green Bay +4.5 over San Francisco (NFL TOP PLAY)
4:30 PM EST

Green Bay is 21-6 SU vs. NFC Conference Opponents
Green Bay is 12-3 SU when playing in the 1st half of the season

MONDAY

10* Play Philadelphia +3 over Washington (NFL TOP PLAY)
7:00 PM EST
Washington is 51-81 ATS when playing as a favorite
Washington is 11-24 ATS at home when playing in the month of September

10* Play Houston -3.5 over San Diego (NFL TOP PLAY)
10:30 PM EST

Houston is 6-1 ATS when playing in the month of September
Houston is 19-8 ATS vs. AFC Conference Opponents the last two seasons
 
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Pro handicappers share top tips for betting the NFL

If you’re a first-time NFL bettor or a seasoned sharp just looking to touch up your edges before the first big NFL Sunday of the season, we have something for you.

Rather than breaking down the do’s and don’ts of NFL wagering, we’ve asked some of Covers Experts handicappers to provide their words of wisdom heading into Week 1, giving us their golden rules when it comes to capping America’s Game:

Steve Merril – “Respect the key numbers, specifically three and seven. NFL favorites will win by exactly three points nearly 10 percent of the time and win by exactly seven points nearly 5 percent of the time, so it is crucial to shop around and get those key half points when possible, especially on key numbers.”

Bruce Marshall – “One phrase to remember from my mentor Mort Olshan: ‘Don't be afraid to lose a game’. I have seen lots of cappers talk themselves out of specific plays and regret so afterward. Take a chance and play your instincts.”

Bryan Power – “Going against public sentiment is traditionally the way to go in NFL. If everyone seems down on a team, look to take them. If everyone is jumping all over a side, be prepared to go against them. In the NFL, regression to the mean is all too common. The difference between the 11-5 teams and 8-8 teams is not that great, nor is the difference between 8-8 and 6-10 teams.”

Jesse Schule – “The most common mistake I see people make is following a strict set of unwritten rules that only hurt their chances of success. You will hear people say that only squares play favorites, parlays, teasers. People tend to believe that it's sharp to take the points and square to lay the chalk, but the reality is that there is a time and a place for both.”

Teddy Covers – “Don't be overly concerned if the sharp money is against you. One of the most common questions that I get asked during football season is 'Who do the sharps in Vegas like this week?'. Yes, over the long term, sharps make money betting on football. But sharps certainly don't win every game and many of their wagers have more to do with getting the best of the pointspread than having any particular opinion about the game in question”.

Marc Lawrence – “A tip for early wagering is not to overreact to the preseason. Aside from the fact they are little more than exhibition games, it's important to remember that different coaches take different approaches to the preseason. Some play to win while others play to evaluate. Don't knee-jerk to results from the preseason.”

Nick Parsons – “Taking in as much information as possible from week to week is crucial in being a situational capper. Motivation is such a huge part of situational capping and knowing a team's schedule, what it did the week before, who it's playing next week, on or off a bye, and what the recent history is, along with carefully tracking the line movements helps in me getting a feel for the situation that each club finds itself in coming into any particular contest.”

Sean Murphy – “Don't believe the preseason hype. Teams are rarely as good - or as bad - as they looked in August. Bettors are quick to lay their money down based on what they just saw. But in this case, it's important to leave the four weeks of action we just witnessed in the rear-view mirror.”

Ben Burns – “Learn from a team's previous game but don't overreact to it. The betting public is typically fickle and places too much weight on what is most recent in its memory.”
 
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NFL Prop Shop: Week 1's best player prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY

After a long offseason of trades, signings, murder investigations and way too much Tim Tebow talk, it's finally time to kick off the 2013 NFL regular season. Here are four prop picks to click Sunday.

Most passing yards

Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) vs. Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears)

This matchup features a showdown between two of the most dynamic QB-WR combos in the league as Andy Dalton and A.J. Green square off against Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall.

While Marshall will certainly be the focal point of the Bears offense, I do expect Matt Forte to do a lot of the heavy lifting as well. Marc Trestman is a QB-friendly head coach but I'm not sure he'll have Jay Cutler slinging it around against an opportunistic Bengals defense in Week 1.

Andy Dalton doesn't always get the credit he deserves and I like the way he matches up against a Bears defense that loves to force turnovers, but also gives up a lot of passing yardage. Look for Dalton and Green to have a big day.

Take: Dalton

Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) vs. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints)

The Falcons were able to entice future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez to return to the field for one more year, and Matt Ryan couldn't be happier. Of course, Gonzalez is really only Ryan's third favorite target behind Julio Jones and Roddy White. This is an offense that can light it up and I expect Matt Ryan to do just that against a mediocre Saints defense Sunday.

Drew Brees will obviously get his, but I have a little more faith in the Falcons secondary to get stops, not to mention in the Atlanta offense to orchestrate long, time-consuming drives that keep Brees and company off the field. Give the edge to Ryan in terms of passing yardage.

Take: Ryan

Most rushing yards

Eddie Lacy (Green Bay Packers) vs. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)

I don't think the 49ers defense is all that worried about the Packers’ supposedly-rejuvenated running game. You can be sure its focus will be on QB Aaron Rodgers. That should open the door for Lacy to have a reasonably strong debut. I'm not sure he'll have to do all that much to outrush Frank Gore, to be honest.

Gore is still a big part of the 49ers offense, but certainly not the focal point that he once was. He'll do just fine for his fantasy owners thanks to his physical running near the goal line. Outside of that, I don't expect him to rack up a ton of yardage - certainly not against a fired up Packers frontline.

Take: Lacy

Most pass receptions

Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville Jaguars)

With Justin Blackmon suspended, Cecil Shorts becomes Blaine Gabbert's go-to guy. Shorts quietly enjoyed a terrific 2012 campaign and, while I'm not expecting much from the Jags offense, he should once again serve as a bright spot.

We'll find out in due time if Alex Smith can develop solid chemistry with Dwayne Bowe. But for now, I expect Kansas City to rely heavily on its ground attack. The Jags may have some holes on defense, but they're still an extremely physical group and I think we'll see them put plenty of pressure on Smith. The fact that they'll be double-teaming Bowe on a regular basis doesn't hurt our cause either.

Take: Shorts
 
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DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index

[h=3]Week 1 Scores/Predictions[/h]
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Cincinnati 17.6 at CHICAGO 17.4, 1:00 pm ET
New England 32.8 at BUFFALO 21.0, 1:00 pm ET
Miami 17.8 at CLEVELAND 13.3, 1:00 pm ET
Atlanta 31.6 at NEW ORLEANS 27.9, 1:00 pm ET
Tampa Bay 22.7 at N.Y. JETS 18.8, 1:00 pm ET
Tennessee 15.8 at PITTSBURGH 25.0, 1:00 pm ET
Minnesota 29.9 at DETROIT 22.1, 1:00 pm ET
Oakland 15.6 at INDIANAPOLIS 26.0, 1:00 pm ET
Seattle 26.1 at CAROLINA 21.4, 1:00 pm ET
Kansas City 15.4 at JACKSONVILLE 18.2, 1:00 pm ET
Arizona 10.4 at ST. LOUIS 23.8, 4:25 pm ET
Green Bay 24.7 at SAN FRANCISCO 32.1, 4:25 pm ET
N.Y. Giants 26.7 at DALLAS 26.0, 8:30 pm ET
 
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[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h]
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (9/5)
Game 495-496: Toronto at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 118.965; Montreal 111.156
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 8; 58
Vegas Line: Montreal by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+3); Over
Game 497-498: Saskatchewan at Winnipeg (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 117.227; Winnipeg 101.997
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 15 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 8 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-8 1/2); Under
 
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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches
Jason Logan

Week 1

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are three of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 1:

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3, 54)

Falcons RB Steven Jackson vs. Saints dinged-up defense

Atlanta will waste no time getting their new offensive weapon in the mix, handing off and tossing short to RB Steven Jackson Sunday. Jackson’s smashmouth style will take full advantage of a hobbled Saints defense that is missing key cogs in the linebacker corps.

New Orleans, which is also making a switch to the 3-4 defense under new coordinator Rob Ryan, is without linebackers Jonathan Vilma, Victor Butler and Will Smith, and their backups have been hindered by injuries all offseason. The Saints were dead last in the NFL in rushing defense in 2012, laying down for 147.6 yards per game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 51.5)

Eagles diminutive WRs vs. Redskins strong secondary

The Eagles are coming up short in the wide receiver department in more than one way. Philadelphia, which lost taller WRs Jeremy Maclin and Arrelious Benn this summer, has a serious height disadvantage. The Eagles are left with 5-foot-9 DeSean Jackson, 5-foot-8 Damaris Johnson, and 6-foot Jason Avant as real receiving weapons. Six-foot-3 WR Riley Cooper is better served as a blocker because of his lack of speed.

Washington has tinkered with its secondary after being gashed by the pass last season. The Redskins are hoping FS Brandon Meriweather will be able to go, but even if he can’t Washington should lean on its size advantage in the secondary. Only two Redskins CBs are under six feet – standouts DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48.5)

Giants’ lack of LB coverage vs. Cowboys TE Jason Witten

The Giants know Dallas TE Jason Witten all too well. The future Hall of Famer has long been a thorn in New York’s side and totaled 167 yards on 18 catches the last time he faced the G-Men. That familiarity with Witten won’t help the Giants linebackers, who were exploited in coverage this preseason, watching the Jets and Patriots pick apart their LBs with passes underneath.

On top of that, New York will assign S Ryan Munday to Witten Sunday night, his first Week 1 start and just his fifth overall career start. Fellow S Antrel Rolle told the media Witten won’t catch 18 passes again. Sure, but you can at least pencil him in for seven or eight. That’s more than enough touches to do damage.
 

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Kevin NFLBettingPicks

Full card

2 UNIT 2-Team 6 Point “Ties Win” Teaser = SEAHAWKS +3 and REDSKINS +3 (-115)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)

Plays released earlier:


2 UNIT = Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos - RAVENS +9 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)


2 UNIT = Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts - COLTS -9.5 (+106)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.12 units)


2 UNIT = New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys - UNDER 48.5 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)


2 UNIT = Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns - DOLPHINS -1.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)


*Note: these two lines have changed as expected due to injuries or normal line movements. I still like both Seahawks -3 and Buccs -3 for 2 units, but if they were to cross 3 completely I would probably make them a "no play" or downgrade it to just 1 unit.


2 UNIT = Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers - SEAHAWKS -2.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)


2 UNIT = Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets - BUCCANEERS -1 (-125)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.60 units)
 

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