Mike O'Connor
**BUFFALO (-2.5) 27 San Diego 17
Sun Sep-21-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 452 Over/Under 44.5
With their 29-10 win last week against the Dolphins, the Bills are now 2-0 on the season, beating their opponents by an average score of 26-15. Last week, they beat up on the Dolphins behind a strong defensive performance that only allowed Miami 290 total yards at 3.9 yppl, forcing 2 turnovers and registering four sacks. The Bills tend to play much better at home where they are are 7-2 ATS and 5-4 SU since the beginning of last season, winning by an average score of 24.6-19.3 against some very good competition. I expect that trend to continue on Sunday as they face a Chargers team that is flying high, fresh off of a 30-21 home win against the Seahawks. San Diego controlled that game by controlling the clock with a 42:15 to 17:45 time advantage, keeping the Seattle offense off the field and wearing down the Seahawk defense in the heat at Qualcomm Stadium. This week, they travel cross country to take on the Bills in a 10AM Pacific start time in a hostile environment against a tough defense. After beating the reigning Super Bowl champs, who seemed to be invincible, I expect a bit of a let-down this week. On the other side, I expect that the Bills will come ready to play with the knowledge that these Chargers just dismantled Seattle and will be prepared to bring their A game.
Buffalo matches up well with the Chargers and should be able to run the ball effectively on a San Diego defense that is allowing 109 yards at 5.7 ypr. The Bills are averaging 150 rushing yards at 5.0 ypr. They also have an advantage defensively, allowing only 83 yards per game on the ground, and the Chargers are now without top RB Ryan Matthews who is out with a sprained MCL. In addition, the Bills qualify in a good 658-486-40 fundamental rushing situation that speaks to this advantage. Buffalo is an improved team this year and is in a good spot to play well in this game. I’ll take the Bills -2.5 for 2-Stars up to -3.
**Tennessee +7 (-115) 22 CINCINNATI 21
Sun Sep-21-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 461 Over/Under 43.5
The Titans should bounce back this week after getting crushed as a home favorite last week against the Cowboys and there are some technical situations that apply to this game that support that notion. The major issue for Tennessee last week was their inability to slow down the Cowboys rushing attack, allowing 220 yards at 5.1 ypr. They won’t face such a rushing juggernaut this week in a Bengals team that is only averaging 3.7 ypr on the season, although Cincinnati did rush for 171 yards last week against a poor Falcons rush defense. The Titans have played surprisingly good pass defense so far this season and that should make for an interesting contest as they square off against a potent Bengals passing attack that is averaging 302 passing yards per game at 9.7 yps. It is interesting to note that new Titans defensive coordinator Ray Horton was the defensive coordinator for the Browns last year and as such he faced these Bengals twice with impressive defensive play in both contests. In the first game, a 17-6 Cleveland win, the Bengals were held to just 266 total yards at 4.2 yppl. The second contest, a 41-20 Bengals win, was a wild game that featured two defensive/special teams touchdowns by the Bengals but the final score was deceiving as the Browns once again held the Bengals offense to just 224 total yards at 3.8 yppl.
I like the Titans in this contest as there are multiple situations and statistical indicators that support them that are 658-486-40, 150-90-6, 73-33-4, 67-26-2 and 40-12-1. They do face their #1 division rival when they visit Indianapolis next week but they should be focused here after such a poor performance last week and I expect them to play well. The Bengals, meanwhile, are off of a comfortable and dominating win over the Falcons and are looking forward to an early bye next week and some time off. They may be a bit too comfortable here. I like the Titans +7 (-115) for 2-Stars down to +6.
**Indianapolis -6.5 (-115) 29 JACKSONVILLE 14
Sun Sep-21-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 467 Over/Under 45.5
After losing on Monday night to the Eagles, Indianapolis is now faced with the prospect of going 0-3 with a loss this week to the Jaguars. As a result they should be highly focused on this divisional game, even though a poor team like the Jaguars often provides for a letdown spot for good teams that have played tough games recently. That is not the case here, however, and I expect the Colts to play well. While the Colts are clearly the better team from the line of scrimmage, they have had a -3 turnover differential as compared to the Jaguars +1. Turnovers were killers for the Colts on Monday night, especially the interception that Luck threw to Malcolm Jenkins with the Colts leading 27-20 with about 5 minutes left at the Philadelphia 16 yard line. Replays pretty clearly showed that TY Hilton had been grabbed by a defender and dragged down, causing the ball to go right to Jenkins. No call was made on the play. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been terrible for the last six quarters (after their shocking 17-0 lead against the Eagles in the first half). Since that time they have been outscored 10-75 including last week’s 10-41 pummeling by the Redskins. The Jaguars were crushed in every possible way in that game, losing the total yardage battle 148 at 3.1 yppl to 450 at 5.6 yppl with 10 sacks and 1 turnover. Because of their bad performance to start the season, there have been some line-up changes made along the offensive line with rookie Luke Bowanko now the starting center, and Sam Young with four career starts, the new right tackle. In addition, if he has time, I’m not sure who Chad Henne will throw to in this game as WR Marquise Lee looks like he will be out, and there’s a good chance Allen Hurns will, too. WR Cecil Shorts looks to be questionable.
Generally speaking, in many cases, trends or situations will call for a bounce back by the team that was beaten soundly last week in a buy low/sell high proposition. In this case however, the trends line up against the Jaguars as they qualify in negative 180-249-12 and 36-73-6 situations. Last season the Colts won both games against the Jaguars by an average score of 34-6 and I expect a similar outcome here. I’ll take the Colts -6.5 (-115) for 2-Stars up to -8.
**Pittsburgh +3.5 (-125) 23 CAROLINA 19
Sun Sep-21-2014 at 05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 477 Over/Under 41.5
After a poor performance last Thursday night against the Ravens in their 6-26 loss, the Steelers will look to get back on track Sunday night against the Panthers. As is the case in most games, the loser is generally on the wrong side of the turnover battle, as the Steelers were last week with a net of -3. So far on the season, the Steelers are 31st in the NFL with a -4 turnover differential while the Panthers are #1 in the league with a +6 margin. Some of that is luck, and in the off-season I spent a lot of time researching and adjusting my turnover calculations to better account for the impact that luck has on a teams’ overall performance. I expect the Steelers to bounce back in this game as one of my turnover indicators suggests.
On the other side, the Panthers made easy work of the Lions, winning an ugly game 24-7. DE Greg Hardy was inactive but the Panthers still were able to dominate the Lions, registering a +3 in the all- important turnover battle. Cam Newton played well in his first game this year after ankle surgery this off-season and suffering a hairline fracture in his rib this preseason. With new parts along the offensive line and with his receiver group, I expect that he will run into some bumps along the way, beginning this week. With some extra time to get ready off the Thursday game, I expect that Pittsburgh should be focused and prepared to play well. The Steelers qualify in a 148-85-12 situation while the Panthers qualify in a negative 107-194-8 situation that plays against them. My ratings favor Pittsburgh by -1.2 so with the combination of line value and good situations, I’ll take the Steelers +3.5 -125 for 2-Stars down to +3.
2* Bills -2.5
2* Titans +7
2* Colts -6.5
2* Steelers +3.5
