STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, JULY 6th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 7/6/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #14
•The Quiet Stability Of The Brewers' Rotation: When you think of what drives the success of the 2014 Brewers, who have now spent 85 days in first place in the eminently respectable National League Central, you probably think of offense. After all, this is a team that ranks third in the NL in runs scored and OPS and second in homers. There's no doubt that Milwaukee can put runs on the board, but not to be overlooked is the performance of the rotation -- a rotation that in 2014 can be described as one of the most reliable in the game.
What does it mean to say that a rotation in reliable? Well, to be sure, calling Matt Garza's Saturday performance against the Reds "reliable" (1-0 shutout victory, nine Ks against just two walks) is to give him short shrift. He was brilliant. In the main, though, Brewers starters this season have answered the bell and kept the team in games. That's the essence of reliability -- stability and consistency -- at least in the positive sense of the term.
In some ways, the Milwaukee rotation hasn't been a team strength this season. After all, they presently rank ninth in the National League in starters' ERA and 11th in starters' WAR. In another regard, however, they're doing their job, especially on a team that's scoring 4.48 runs per game.
This season, just two teams have used as few as six starters -- the Brewers and the Tigers. It's of course no coincidence that each of those teams is in first place. The Tigers, though, are a team we associate with having a bedrock rotation throughout recent history. The Brewers, though, are coming off a 2013 season in which 12 different pitchers made at least one start. There are no absolutes, of course, but generally speaking cycling through a lot of different starters does not yield positive results. This season, though, Kyle Lohse, Garza, Wily Peralta, Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada have combined to start all but one of Milwaukee's games. The only exception is the start made by Jimmy Nelson on May 25. (To be sure, there's a strong case to be made that Nelson should replace Estrada in the Milwaukee rotation, but that's a separate discussion.)
Consider all of that the "stability" component. As for consistency, consider the following NL ranks of the Brewers' rotation in 2014: second in innings per start and third in quality start percentage. That's important. While the Brewers would of course like to see its starters improve upon those 4.11 runs/game they're allowing, those same starters are generally avoiding the disaster outing and they're also easing the bullpen workload by pitching deeply into games (the Brewers' bullpen has thrown the fourth-fewest innings in the NL). There's your consistency.
None of this is to say the Brewers have one of the best rotations in the league -- they don't. However, given how many runs the offense tends to score, that rotation is doing its job in a very important sense. It's a stable and reliable unit, and right now that's more than enough for the best team in the National League.
•Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki Sounds Open To Being Traded: As recently as May 7, the Rockies were tied for first place in the National League West. Now, not even two months hence, they're 13 games out of first place and on pace for 95 losses. Such drain-circling once again raises the possibility that the Rockies will engage in the sell-off as the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches. Needless to say, the Rockies have no more valuable commodity than All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who's healthy and in vintage form thus far in 2014. Regarding that tantalizing possibility, Tulo himself sounds open to the idea of changing addresses at the deadline. Here's what he recently told Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post:
"In Todd Helton, there's someone who's easy to look at his career here and how it played out. I have the utmost respect for Todd, but at the same time, I don't want to be the next in line as somebody who was here for a long time and didn't have a chance to win every single year. He played in a couple postseason games and went to one World Series. But that's not me. I want to be somewhere where there's a chance to be in the playoffs every single year."
On the one hand, Tulowitzki is signed through 2020 and owed, after this season, a minimum of $118 million. As well, if Tulowitzki is traded while under his current contract, then he gets a $2-million assignment payout and a full no-trade clause. All that said, we're talking about a plus-fielding shortstop who at the plate owns a career OPS+ of 125 and appears to be in his prime. The injury history can't be ignored, but Tulo is a frontline performer in every sense of the word. And frontline performers cost money, as they should. While it's hard to imagine his playing in another uniform, Tulowitzki easily become the star of the deadline -- even a deadline that includes David Price -- if the Rockies decide it's time to tear it down.
•Jaime Garcia To Undergo Surgery, Miss Rest Of Season: Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia hasn't pitched since June 20 because of shoulder inflammation, and now it appears the often-injured soon to be 28 year old will miss the remainder of the 2014 season. That's straight from the mouth of GM John Mozeliak, so presumably the decision is made.
The procedure to treat thoracic outlet syndrome typically involves removing a rib, so the time-table for recovery is indeed a fairly lengthy one. Garcia has been on the DL six times in his career and has managed a total of just 220 2/3 innings since the start of the 2012 season. For his career, Garcia owns an ERA+ of 108 across parts of six big-league seasons. He's owed the remainder of a $7.75-million salary for 2014. Next year, Garcia is under contract for $9.25 million, and he has $500,000 buyouts in his contract for 2016 and 2017.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
National League
•Brewers-Reds - 1:10 PM
--Gallardo is 2-1, 3.09 in his last five starts.
--Latos is 1-1, 1.29 in his last two starts.
--Milwaukee lost four of its last five games.
--Reds won five of last seven home games.
--Four of last five Gallardo starts stayed under total.
•Cubs-Nationals - 1:35 PM
--Arrieta is 4-0, 0.78 in his last five starts.
--Zimmerman is 3-2, 1.43 in his last six starts.
--Cubs won seven of their last nine road games.
--Washington won six of its last seven games.
--Eight of last ten Washington games went over total.
•Diamondbacks-Braves - 1:35 PM
--Miley is 0-3, 4.71 in his last nine starts.
--Wood is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts.
--Arizona lost five of its last six games.
--Atlanta won its last nine games.
--Eight of last ten Miley starts stayed under total.
•Phillies-Pirates - 1:35 PM
--Ex-Pirate Burnett is 1-2, 3.30 in his last four starts.
--Locke is 1-1, 2.45 in his last five starts.
--Philly lost nine of its last eleven games.
--Pirates won eleven of their last fourteen games.
--Four of last five Burnett starts stayed under.
•Marlins-Cardinals - 2:15 PM
--Marlins won last nine Alvarez starts (3-0, 1.35).
--Gonzales is 0-1, 9.65 in two starts; he has a 27.03 RA after third inning.
--Miami lost six of its last nine games.
--St Louis won eight of its last twelve home games.
--Three of last four Alvarez starts stayed under total.
•Giants-Padres - 4:10 PM
--Lincecum is 2-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (17 IP), one of which was no-hitter against San Diego June 25.
--Hahn is 4-0, 1.13 in his last four starts.
--Giants lost nine of their last twelve games.
--San Diego won five of its last six games.
--Four of five Hahn starts stayed under the total.
•Dodgers-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Beckett is 2-1, 2.53 in his last five starts.
--Flande is 0-1, 6.10 in his first two MLB starts.
--Dodgers won 15 of their last 22 games.
--Colorado lost 16 of its last 19 games.
--Six of last eight Beckett starts stayed under total.
American League
•Rays-Tigers - 8:05 PM
--Price is 3-1, 2.01 in his last four starts.
--Porcello is 3-0, 0.00 in his last three starts (24 IP).
--Tampa Bay won nine of its last eleven games.
--Tigers won nine of their last thirteen games, but lost last two.
--11 of last 15 Detroit games went over the total; Price's last five starts stayed under. .
•Royals-Indians - 1:05 PM
--Duffy is 3-2, 1.69 in his last six starts.
--Kluber is 1-2, 1.73 in his last four starts.
--Royals won 12 of their last 14 road games.
--Cleveland lost five of its last seven home games.
--Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Duffy starts.
•Orioles-Red Sox - 1:35 PM
--Gausman is 3-1, 2.63 in his last four starts.
--Red Sox lost last six Peavy starts (0-5, 5.65).
--Baltimore is 12-6 in its last eighteen games.
--Red Sox lost ten of their last fifteen games.
--14 of last 17 games at Fenway Park stayed under.
•Yankees-Twins - 2:10 PM
--Kuroda is 1-3, 3.66 in his last five starts.
--Nolasco is 1-1, 5.08 in his last five starts.
--New York lost six of their last eight games.
--Minnesota lost nine of their last twelve games.
--Last six Kuroda starts stayed under the total.
•Mariners-White Sox - 2:10 PM
--Walker won his first '14 start, allowing three runs in six IP.
--Chicago lost last four Noesi starts (0-2, 6.35).
--Seattle won 11 of its last 14 games.
--White Sox lost eight of their last eleven home games.
--Seven of last ten Seattle games stayed under the total.
•Astros-Angels - 3:35 PM
--McHugh is 0-4, 5.25 in his last four starts.
--Angels won last six Richards starts (5-0, 1.49).
--Houston lost 14 of its last 18 games.
--Angels won eleven of their last fourteen games.
--Over is 3-0-1 in last four Richards starts.
•Blue-Jays-Athletics - 4:05 PM
--Hutchison is 1-2, 4.67 in his last three starts.
--Samardzija was 0-2, 5.48 in his last four starts for Chicago; Cubs scored 3 or less runs in 12 of his 17 starts.
--Blue Jays lost eight of their last nine road games.
--Oakland won ten of its last twelve home games.
--Nine of last ten Toronto games stayed under.
Interleague
•Rangers-Mets - 1:10 PM
--Tepesch is 1-1, 1.93 in his last three starts.
--Wheeler is 0-3, 8.56 in his last three home starts.
--Texas lost ten of its last eleven road games.
--Mets lost eight of their last ten games.
--Four of last five Wheeler home starts stayed under.
•Umpires Trends
-- Mil-Cin-- Four of last six Baker games stayed under.
-- Chi-Wsh-- Six of eight Everitt games went over total.
-- Az-Atl-- Nine of eleven Basner games went over.
-- Phil-Pitt-- Seven of last ten Scott games stayed under.
-- Mia-StL-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Timmons games.
-- SF-SD-- Favorites won 11 of last 12 Hoye games.
-- LA-Col-- Favorites won seven of last eight Kellogg games.
-- TB-Det-- Six of last eight Gibson games went over.
-- KC-Clev-- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Cooper games.
-- Balt-Bos-- Underdogs are 9-5 in last fourteen Estabrook games.
-- NY-Min-- Five of last seven Drake games stayed under.
-- Sea-Chi-- Over is 10-4-1 in last fifteen LBarrett games.
-- Tor-A's-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Morales games.
-- Hst-LAA-- Eight of last ten Vanover games went over.
-- Tex-NYM-- Underdogs won 12 of last 15 Hudson games; under is 10-6 in his games behind the plate.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
The New York Yankees are 18-3 their last twenty-one games in Minnesota. The Twins have never won consecutive home games over the Yankees since Target Field opened four years ago. They'll try to change that while spoiling Derek Jeter's final matchup against them Sunday afternoon. Minnesota is 4-15 against New York at Target Field, including a pair of losses in the 2010 division series. The Twins, though, now have a chance at their first home win streak versus the Yankees since a three-gamer in 2008.
Diamond Trends - Sunday
•TEXAS is 4-15 (-17.7 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was TEXAS 3.8, OPPONENT 5.4.
•PITTSBURGH is 28-8 UNDER (+18.7 Units) versus poor fielding teams - (turning 0.8 or less DP's/game) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.2, OPPONENT 3.0.
•KANSAS CITY is 32-11 (+22.3 Units) against the run line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.8, OPPONENT 2.8.
•JEFF SAMARDZIJA is 2-13 (-12.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 2.4, OPPONENT 4.6.
•COREY KLUBER is 16-5 OVER (+11.2 Units) versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KLUBER 6.4, OPPONENT 4.3.
•YOVANI GALLARDO is 19-6 (+15.3 Units) against the run line versus an National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GALLARDO 5.6, OPPONENT 3.4.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (LA ANGELS) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(43-4 since 1997.) (91.5%, +35.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -185
The average score in these games was: Team 6.3, Opponent 2.6 (Average run differential = +3.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1, +4.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2, +14.4 units).
•Play On - All favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+115 to +160) (ATLANTA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) - National League, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(37-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.2%, +29.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (43-9 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.5, money line price: +120
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +2.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 29 (55.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-5, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-12, +12.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (60-69, +3.3 units).
•Play Under - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (MIAMI) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.
(51-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.5%, +35.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-109.3
The average score in these games was: Team 2.9, Opponent 3.9 (Total runs scored = 6.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 40 (67.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-1, +7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-13, +14.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (104-83, +13.2 units).
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w-thumbs!^
