STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, JULY 13th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 7/13/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #15
•Alvarez Replaces Zimmermann On NL Squad: Miami Marlins right-hander Henderson Alvarez will replace Washington Nationals pitcher Jordan Zimmermann on the National League roster for Tuesday's All-Star game in Minneapolis. Zimmermann (6-5, 3.03 ERA) exited Friday night's start against the Philadelphia Phillies after 3 1/3 innings due to a right biceps injury. Alvarez is 6-4 with a 2.63 ERA in 19 starts this season.
•Chapman Sets MLB Record With Strikeouts: Reds closer Aroldis Chapman struck out the side in the ninth inning Saturday night against the Pirates to finish off his 20th save of the season. And he made some history in the process. Chapman now holds the MLB record with at least one strikeout in 40 consecutive relief appearances. The streak dates back to last season. The previous record was held by Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter, who went 39 consecutive appearances with a strikeout in 1977. Former Dodgers closer Eric Gagne had 35 straight appearances with a strikeout from 2003-2014.
Chapman is also fourth on the list, as he went 34 consecutive appearances with a strikeout from 2011-2012. But now he’s the top dog. Chapman got a late start on the season after he was hit in the face by a comebacker during spring training, but he has been nothing short of sensational since returning. Averaging 100 mph (!) on his fastball, he has a 2.20 ERA over 28 2/3 innings to go along with a 57/10 K/BB ratio. Just to put things in perspective, Chapman has faced 108 batters this season. He has struck out 52.8 percent of them. That’s insane.
•Skip Schumaker Placed On Concussion Disabled List: Brandon Phillips underwent surgery yesterday to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb and now the Reds will be without one of the potential options to fill in at second base. Skip Schumaker was placed on the 7-day concussion disabled list prior to last night’s game. The 34-year-old utility man displayed symptoms after slammed into the right field wall while trying to catch Luis Valbuena‘s two-run triple in the 12th inning of Thursday’s game. With Joey Votto also sidelined, the Reds are going to have to be creative with the right side of their infield. Last night, they used Ramon Santiago to fill in at second base while Jay Bruce made another start at first base. After joining the Reds on a two-year, $5 million contract over the winter, Schumaker is batting .240/.287/.315 with one home run and 14 RBI over 47 games this season.
•Indians Recall McAllister, Option Pestano: The Cleveland Indians recalled right-hander Zach McAllister from Triple-A Columbus on Saturday and optioned right-hander Vinnie Pestano to Columbus. McAllister, 26, has split the season between Cleveland and Columbus. He began the year in the Cleveland rotation and went 3-4 with a 5.89 ERA in 10 starts before going on the 15-day disabled list on May 22 with lower back inflammation. He was optioned to Columbus on June 20 and has gone 5-0 with a 2.23 ERA in six starts with the Clippers. McAllister is starting Saturday's game against the Chicago White Sox. Pestano is 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA over nine innings in 13 appearances with Cleveland this season.
•Montero Named To Replace Yadier At All-Star Game: Dianondbacks catcher Miguel Montero planned to take his wife and two kids to Disneyland next week, but those plans changed suddenly Friday. Instead, the family is headed to Minnesota as Montero was added to the National League roster for the All-Star Game. Montero takes the place of injured Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who was elected as the starter in the fan voting. Brewers backstop Jonathan Lucroy, who was elected on the players' ballot, will start the game in Molina's place. "I just finished canceling everything, but Disneyland is going to stay there, the All-Star Game, you don't know when you can go again," Montero said. "We might go in the offseason now."
This is Montero's second All-Star selection, and he will join teammate Paul Goldschmidt, who was elected by fans to start the game at first base. Montero was also a replacement in the 2011 game that was held in Phoenix. "It's always exciting and it's a blessing for me to be able to go to an All-Star Game and to stay healthy so far this year and to be able to do what I'm doing so far," Montero said. "So hopefully it keeps going, getting better. It's a pleasure to go to the All-Star Game with Goldy in the name of the Arizona Diamondbacks." The 2013 season was a nightmarish one for Montero, who slumped to .230 and also battled an injured back. This year, though, he has bounced back to hit .265 with a .765 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) heading into Friday's game.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
National League
•Marlins-Mets - 1:10 PM
--Hand is 0-1, 6.11 in four starts this season.
--DeGrom is 2-1, 1.75 in his last four starts.
--Marlins are 5-10 in their last fifteen games.
--Mets won six of their last seven games.
--Eight of last eleven New York home games went over.
•Pirates-Reds - 1:10 PM
--Liriano was 1-3, 5.70 in five starts before going on DL.
--Cueto is 3-1, 3.03 in his last four starts.
--Pirates lost five of their last seven road games.
--Cincinnati won six of its last eight games.
--Five of last six Cueto home starts stayed under the total.
•Nationals-Phillies - 1:35 PM
--Roark is 0-2, 5.54 in his last two starts.
--Kendrick is 1-2, 6.07 in his last four starts.
--Washington is 6-9 in its last fifteen road games.
--Phillies won five of their last six games overall.
--11 of last 16 Washington games went over total.
•Cardinals-Brewers - 2:10 PM
--Martinez is 2-0, 3.70 in five starts, all Cardinal wins.
--Peralta is 1-1, 9.37 in his last three starts.
--Cardinals won five of their last six games.
--Milwaukee lost 11 of its last 12 games.
--Eight of last eleven games at Miller Park went over.
•Braves-Cubs - 2:20 PM
--Teheran is 1-3, 6.46 in his last four starts.
--Wood is 1-2, 5.76 in his last four starts.
--Braves lost five of their last seven games.
--Cubs lost seven of their last nine games.
--11 of last 15 Atlanta road games stayed under total.
•Diamondbacks-Giants - 4:05 PM
--Nuno is 1-1, 2.04 in his last three starts.
--Bumgarner is 0-3, 8.00 in his last three starts.
--Arizona lost six of its last nine road games.
--Giants lost 16 of their last 21 home games.
--Twelve of last fifteen Arizona games stayed under.
•Padres-Dodgers - 4:10 PM
--Ross is 1-3, 2.17 in his last four starts; Padres scored total of eight runs in his last seven outings.
--Ryu is 0-2, 6.61 in his last three starts.
--Padres lost six of their last eight games.
--Dodgers lost four of their last six games.
--12 of last 14 San Diego road games stayed under.
American League
•White Sox--Indians - 1:05 PM
--White Sox won last three Danks starts (2-0, 3.26).
--Bauer is 2-2, 4.58 in his last six starts.
--White Sox lost three of their last four games.
--Indians won seven of their last eleven games.
--Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Cleveland home games.
•Blue Jays-Rays - 1:40 PM
--Dickey is 1-4, 4.08 in his last five starts.
--Price is 3-0, 1.88 in his last three starts.
--Blue Jays lost nine of their last eleven road games.
--Tampa Bay won 12 of its last 17 games.
--Seven of last nine Tampa Bay games went over total.
•Red Sox-Astros - 2:10 PM
--Buchholz is 1-1, 3.92 in three starts since coming off DL.
--Cosart is 5-1, 4.42 in his last six starts (1-1, 10.12 in last two).
--Red Sox won three of their last four games.
--Astros won four of their last five games.
--Six of last nine Boston road games went over.
•Tigers-Royals - 2:10 PM
--Verlander is 2-0, 4.32 in his last four starts; Tigers scored 23 runs in his last couple outings.
--Chen is 1-2, 7.45 in four starts this season.
--Detroit won eight of its last ten road games.
--Royals lost nine of their last twelve home games.
--Seven of last ten Detroit games went over the total.
•Angels-Rangers - 3:05 PM
--Skaggs is 0-4, 5.01 in his last five starts.
--Baker is 0-2, 5.94 in three starts this season.
--Angels won 11 of their last 13 games.
--Rangers lost 13 of their last 14 games.
--14 of last 21 Texas road games went over total.
•Athletics-Mariners - 4:10 PM
--Gray is 3-0, 3.12 in his last four starts.
--Young is 3-1, 1.69 in his last five starts.
--Oakland lost three of its last four games.
--Mariners lost three of last five games, but won last two.
--Seven of last nine Seattle home games stayed under.
•Yankees-Orioles - 8:05 PM
--Whitley is 0-2, 14.81 in his last three starts.
--Gausman is 3-1, 2.45 in his last five starts.
--New York lost nine of their last fifteen games.
--Baltimore won five of its last seven games.
--Last five Whitley starts went over the total.
Interleague
•Twins-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Correia is 0-3, 3.79 in his last three starts (Twins scored four runs).
--Matzek is 0-3, 5.34 in his last five starts.
--Twins won five of their last seven road games.
--Colorado won three of its last four home games.
Under is 6-2-1 in last nine games at Coors Field.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Hand 1-3; deGrom 3-8
-- Liriano 7-7; Cueto 11-8
-- Roark 7-9; Kendrick 8-10
-- Martinez 5-0; Peralta 10-8
-- Teheran 12-7; Wood 10-8
-- Nuno (NY 6-8/0-1); Bumgarner 10-9
-- Ross 8-11; Ryu 9-8
-- Danks 9-9; Bauer 5-6
-- Dickey 9-10; Price 11-8
-- Buchholz 5-8; Cosart 10-8
-- Verlander 11-8; Chen 2-2
-- Skaggs 7-6; Baker 0-3
-- Gray 12-6; Young 10-7
-- Whitley 7-3; Gausman 4-2
-- Hughes 12-6; Anderson 1-2
•Umpires Trends
-- Atl-Chi-- Six of last nine Kellogg games stayed under.
-- Az-SF-- Five of last six Morales games went over.
-- StL-Mil-- 12 of last 15 Nelson games stayed under.
-- Mia-NY-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Schrieber games.
-- Wsh-Phil-- Nine of twelve Basner games went over total.
-- Pitt-Cin-- Over is 7-2-1 in Woodring games this season.
-- SD-LA-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Wolf games.
-- Chi-Clev-- Nine of last twelve Iassogna games stayed under.
-- NY-Balt-- Under is 12-5-1 in Eddings games this season.
-- Bos-Hst-- Six of last nine Foster games stayed under total.
-- Tor-TB-- Underdogs won 13 of last 15 Barber games.
-- Det-KC-- Underdogs won nine of last eleven Miller games.
-- LA-Tex-- 14 of 19 Fagan games stayed under the total.
-- A's-Sea-- Three of last four Muchlinski games went over.
-- Min-Col-- Eight of last twelve Barksdale games went over.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Detroit Tigers Sunday starting pitcher Justin Verlander has turned around a 1-5 streak on the mound with two wins following two No Decisions, but his extremely high ERA of 4.77 has continued to produces a nice trend of Overs. 9-1 in Verlander's last ten starts to be exact as the former best pitcher in the game continues his struggles.
Diamond Trends - Sunday
•COLORADO is 2-16 (-18.7 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 3.4, OPPONENT 6.3.
•COLORADO is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) versus terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 3.4, OPPONENT 3.4.
•TEXAS is 1-11 (-13.5 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.7, OPPONENT 7.4.
•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 6-18 (-24.9 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.0, OPPONENT 5.2.
•CHRIS YOUNG is 11-1 UNDER (+10.2 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season.
The average score was YOUNG 2.8, OPPONENT 2.5.
•DAVID PRICE is 1-14 (-14 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PRICE 3.5, OPPONENT 4.8.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (OAKLAND) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
(184-59 since 1997.) (75.7%, +83.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -169.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (24-7, +10.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (53-21, +15.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (101-34, +42.9 units).
•Play Against - All teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135) (BOSTON) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA >=5.00), cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games.
(54-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +37.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (42-24 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.3, money line price: -139
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 41 (62.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-2, +9.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-4, +18.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (160-99, +9.3 units).
•Play Under - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (WASHINGTON) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest.
(62-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.1%, +34.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.2, Money Line=-114.8
The average score in these games was: Team 3.7, Opponent 3.4 (Total runs scored = 7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 51 (59.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-14, +27.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (111-68, +33.7 units).
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w-thumbs!^
