Service Plays Sunday 6/14/15

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JIMMY MOORE – NBA FINALS GAME 5

#709 4* Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 (8:05 edt) ABC

The Cavs will be better rested here with 2 days off after game 4 and they will be better prepared for the Golden State defensive play against LeBron. They will be very motivated as well to get a win off of their bad home loss in game 4. Golden State has just struggled to cover all playoffs long at home so even if they get the win they could easily not cover with a line this big. Take the boatload of points here with the Cavs. Thank you and good luck.
 

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
SUNDAY, JUNE 14th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


#951 ATLANTA @ #952 NY METS - 1:10 PM
•Braves RH Mike Foltynewicz (3-2, 4.72 ERA, WHIP: 1.489) - Foltynewicz has been up and down since joining the Atlanta rotation and is in a funk of late with back-to-back rough outings. The 23-year-old was lit up for five runs on 12 hits and a walk while matching a season low with two strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings against San Diego on Tuesday. Foltynewicz pitched in relief against New York as a member of the Houston Astros last season and allowed three runs in 2 1/3 frames.

•Mets RH Dillon Gee (0-3, 4.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.500) - Gee will return to what is being referred to as a “six-man lite” rotation, with rookie Noah Syndergaard being pushed back to Monday. Gee was moved to relief and worked 1 2/3 innings out of the bullpen against San Francisco on Tuesday but will fill in as needed in the rotation. The Texas native lost at Atlanta on April 11 but held the Braves to two runs in seven innings at home in a no-decision on April 22.

--KEY STAT: GEE is 13-2 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GEE 2.5, OPPONENT 2.6.

#953 COLORADO @ #954 MIAMI - 1:10 PM
•Rockies LH Jorge De La Rosa (3-2, 5.53 ERA, WHIP: 1.426) - De Le Rosa is coming off one of his better performances of the season, holding the St. Louis Cardinals to two runs on only three hits while striking out eight over seven innings. The 34-year-old Mexican improved to 3-0 over his last four outings, a span he which he has permitted a total of eight runs. De La Rosa has not fared well in a pair of starts at Miami, going 1-1 while giving up eight runs in only 9 1/3 innings.

--KEY STATS: DE LA ROSA is 23-10 (+13.0 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8.

--DE LA ROSA is 26-13 (+12.4 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1.

•Marlins RH Dan Haren (6-2, 3.12 ERA, WHIP: 1.013) - Haren was forced to settle for a no-decision last time about despite limiting Toronto's potent lineup to two runs on three hits over seven innings. The 34-year-old Haren is unbeaten over his last five turns, surrendering a total of nine runs and 25 hits over 33 2/3 innings. Haren is 3-0 with a 1.96 in six home starts this season, but he has struggled against Colorado with a 7-9 record and 5.12 ERA in 19 career outings.

--KEY STATS: HAREN is 17-28 (-16.9 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAREN 3.6, OPPONENT 4.4.

--HAREN is 12-3 OVER (+9.2 Units) versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAREN 5.1, OPPONENT 5.1.

#955 PHILADELPHIA @ #956 PITTSBURGH - 1:35 PM
•Phillies LH Cole Hamels (5-5, 3.19 ERA, WHIP: 1.145) - Hamels followed a four-start winning streak by suffering his second loss in three outings on Monday. The 31-year-old endured his first career setback to Cincinnati after getting blitzed for five runs on eight hits in six innings in the 6-4 loss. Hamels improved to 3-2 in his career versus Pittsburgh on May 13 after yielding two runs in seven frames while matching a season high with nine strikeouts in a 3-2 triumph.

--KEY STATS: HAMELS is 9-19 (-16.5 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 3.0, OPPONENT 3.7.

--HAMELS is 34-16 UNDER (+17.4 Units) in road games when working on 5 or 6 days rest since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 3.3, OPPONENT 3.6.

•Pirates RH A.J. Burnett (6-2, 2.11 ERA, WHIP: 1.187) - Burnett saw his six-start winning streak come to an abrupt end on Monday despite allowing just one run on five hits in seven innings in a 2-0 setback to Milwaukee. The 38-year-old will look to rebound against Philadelphia, with which he recorded an 8-18 mark and a 4.59 ERA in the 2014 season. Burnett has traditionally struggled when facing the Phillies, but permitted two runs in seven innings to pick up the win in his last meeting on May 12.

--KEY STATS: BURNETT is 9-20 (-15.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 3.4, OPPONENT 3.8.

--BURNETT is 50-17 UNDER (+31.3 Units) in home games versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 3.9, OPPONENT 3.3.

#957 WASHINGTON @ #958 MILWAUKEE - 2:10 PM
•Nationals RH Max Scherzer (6-5, 2.13 ERA, WHIP: 0.949) - Scherzer has suffered back-to-back defeats after winning five consecutive starts. He lost to the New York Yankees in his last turn when he gave up four runs and eight hits in 6 2/3 innings. Scherzer has a 2.77 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against Milwaukee.

--KEY STATS: SCHERZER is 25-8 (+14.5 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SCHERZER 5.2, OPPONENT 3.4.

--SCHERZER is 4-12 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SCHERZER 2.9, OPPONENT 4.2.

•Brewers RH Taylor Jungmann (1-0, 1.29 ERA, WHIP: 0.571) - Jungmann was sensational in his major-league debut Tuesday when he defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates. He gave up one run and three hits in seven innings and Pittsburgh had trouble picking up his off-speed pitches. The 6-6 Jungmann, the 12th overall pick of the 2011 draft, had struggled to a 2-3 mark and 6.37 ERA at Triple-A Colorado Springs before his call-up.

#959 ARIZONA @ #960 SAN FRANCISCO - 4:05 PM
•Diamondbacks RH Rubby De La Rosa (4-3, 5.84 ERA, WHIP: 1.284) - De La Rosa is winless over his last five starts and has been atrocious in his last two outings. He gave up nine runs and 10 hits in five innings Monday while losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers, following up an effort in which he gave up seven runs and nine hits in five innings in a no-decision against Atlanta. De La Rosa is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts against San Francisco this season.

•Giants RH Chris Heston (6-4, 3.77 ERA, WHIP: 1.189) - Heston is in the midst of an up-and-down seven-start stretch as he has given up five or more runs in four of the outings and one total run in the other three starts. In the start prior to the no-hitter, he allowed five runs and seven hits in 3 2/3 innings while losing to Pittsburgh. Heston is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in two outings against Arizona this season with both victories occurring in April.

#961 LA DODGERS @ #962 SAN DIEGO - 4:10 PM
•Dodgers RH Mike Bolsinger (4-1, 2.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.015) - Bolsinger yielded two runs and three hits while striking out eight in a 9-3 victory over Arizona on Monday in his first game against his former team. ''In Arizona, it had more to do with me,'' the 27-year-old, who was 1-6 with a 5.50 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) with the Diamondbacks in 2014, told reporters. ''I went out there with a bad mentality. I'd have a bad start and thought: 'If I pitched bad, I'm going to get sent down.' ... My mentality is so different than it was last year.'' Bolsinger is 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA in two starts against San Diego after allowing one hit — a lead-off single to Yangervis Solarte — in eight innings of a 2-0 victory over the Padres on May 23.

--KEY STAT: BOLSINGER is 1-9 (-8.3 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BOLSINGER 2.8, OPPONENT 4.8.

•Padres RH James Shields (7-0, 3.79 ERA, WHIP: 1.227) - Shields received a no-decision after allowing five runs (four earned) and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings as San Diego blew a five-run lead in a 6-5 loss in Atlanta on Tuesday, snapping a string of five straight quality starts. "I didn't get the job done, basically," the 33-year-old California native told reporters. "I didn't get my job done (Tuesday). I've got to get better." Howie Kendrick (16-for-32, home run, two triples, four doubles) and Jimmy Rollins (7-for-14, homer, four RBIs) have fared exceptionally well versus Shields, who is 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA in three starts against Los Angeles after yielding three runs in seven frames of an 11-3 victory at Dodger Stadium on May 24.

--KEY STATS: SHIELDS is 13-2 (+11.1 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 6.6, OPPONENT 3.9.

--SHIELDS is 26-12 OVER (+14.5 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.8, OPPONENT 4.1.

#963 CINCINNATI @ #964 CHICAGO CUBS - 8:05 PM
•Reds RH Anthony DeSclafani (5-4, 3.53 ERA, WHIP: 1.304) - DeSclafani has won three straight starts and recorded quality starts in three of his last four outings. The 25-year-old held Philadelphia to two runs over 6 1/3 innings in his last turn, piling up a season-high seven strikeouts after totaling one over his previous two outings. DeSclafani is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts against the Cubs and split a pair of meetings in April.

•Cubs LH Jon Lester (4-5, 4.25 ERA, WHIP: 1.431) - Lester had a streak of seven straight quality starts before getting roughed up in his last two outings, allowing 11 runs in 9 1/3 innings. The 31-year-old matched his shortest outing of the season last time out, lasting only 4 1/3 innings and surrendering nine hits and two walks. Lester faced the Reds twice in April but didn't get a decision either time, allowing six runs in six innings at Wrigley Field and giving up three runs in six frames with a season-high 10 strikeouts at Cincinnati.

--KEY STATS: LESTER is 40-9 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 4.9, OPPONENT 3.0.

--LESTER is 15-3 (+10.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 4.6, OPPONENT 2.6.
________________________________________________
 
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StatFox Super Situations

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points poor offensive rebounding team - averaging <=11/game on the season, on Sunday games
382-256 since 1997. ( 59.9% | 100.4 units )
46-28 this year. ( 62.2% | 15.2 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play On - Any team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less
82-33 since 1997. ( 71.3% | 38.1 units )
6-6 this year. ( 50.0% | -1.2 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points in a playoff series which is tied
78-38 since 1997. ( 67.2% | 36.2 units )
8-2 this year. ( 80.0% | 5.8 units )
 
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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | SEATTLE at HOUSTON
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (SEATTLE) poor baserunning team - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts
74-52 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.7% | 38.4 units )
9-10 this year. ( 47.4% | 0.5 units )


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | MINNESOTA at TEXAS
MINNESOTA is 18-9 (+12.9 Units) against the money line this season.
The average score was: MINNESOTA (4.8) , OPPONENT (3.3)
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Tigers on Saturday and likes the Tigers on Sunday.

The deficit is 191 sirignanos.
 
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Hondo

It’s a Sawx hop for Hondo

Hondo absorbed another in a series of thorough beatings on Saturday, getting pummeled with Pelfrey and the Twins to increase the rapidly expanding dirty digits to 1,235 malzones.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch will give Rodriguez another opportunity to earn a stall in the stable — 10 units on the Sawx. Also, he expects Sonny to brighten his day — 10 on Gray and the A’s.
 
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KING CREOLE

NBA Finals Game 5 / CLEVELAND @ GOLDEN STATE
5**** BEST BET: OVER THE TOTAL 195.5
As we mentioned in our promo, we have queried our NBA post-season database from ‘A to Z’. I’ve entered all applicable situations. Some are related, and some are unrelated. They ALL point to a higher-than-anticipated final score in Sunday’s Game Five of the NBA Finals. The OU line for Sunday opened at 194 points. As we type this on Friday evening, the line has raised to195 to 195.5. That’s a curious line move in regards to what ‘Joe Public’ is currently wagering on. The squares have gone OVER the Total at a pretty high percentage in Games 2, 3, and 4 in this series… and have been BURNED by an ‘Under’ result in all three games. Now, it seems like they are once again trying to CHASE. At last look, 70% or more of ALL ‘public’ action is on the UNDER. And yet, the line is STILL going up. So what can we learn from this initial wagering information? (1) The squares are great at chasing, but they always seem to be on the WRONG side when it comes to Over/Under. They don’t know when to ‘zig’ or when to ‘zag’! (2) Despite Joe Public going UNDER in this game, the line continues to rise. Obviously that means that the SHARP money (whale $) is on the OVER. Well, so are we. You’ll want to play this game as soon as possible, to get the best line value.

The fifth game of the NBA Finals is classified as the’4.5’ game in our database… The 4.5 game of the NBA Playoffs (Round 4 / Game 5) has gone 9-3 O/U in the last 12 seasons. In the last four years, the average combined points in this game have been a whopping 212.9 (191 last year / 218 in 2013 / 227 in 2013 / 215 in 2012). We also note that when the OU line in this game is 197 or less points, the results have gone 7-1 O/U.

Our next query is slightly less specific. We look at ALL Playoff GAME FIVES…
(1) 9-1 O/U last 4 years: All NBA Playoff GAME FIVE’s with TWO (2) days of REST… when the OU line is 197 < points (CAVS @ WARRIORS).
(2) 11-1 O/U last 3 years: All NBA Playoff GAME FIVE non-division home favorites of -6 > pts (WARRIORS) when the OU line is < 198 points.
(3) 6-1 O/U since 2001: All NBA Playoff GAME FIVE’s off an Under… Under… Under… and Over (CAVS @ WARRIORS) when the OU line is > 188 points.

Yes, we are certainly aware that Game Two, Game Three, and Game Four have ALL gone UNDER the TOTAL… 9-1 O/U last 4 years: All NBA Playoff GAMES 4 thru 7 (CAVS @ WARRIORS) off 3 straight ‘Unders’ in a row… when the OU Line falls in the range of > 170 points and < 198 points.
Next up, a couple of queries in our database pertaining to this particular Day of the Week (Sunday)…
(1) 7-1 O/U since 1998: All NBA Playoff GAME FIVES on a SUNDAY (CAVS @ WARRIORS) when the OU line is in the range of > 167 points and < 197 points.
(2) 18-5 O/U since 1991: All NBA Playoff SUNDAY home favorites of -4 > pts (WARRIORS) when the OU line is < 198 points.

Golden State got right back into this series with a 21-point road win on Thursday… 5-0 O/U last 5 years: All NBA Playoff home teams off a SU Playoff ROAD favorite win of 20 or more points (WARRIORS).
So the Warriors LOST Games Two and Three, and came back with a fairly easy win in Thursday’s Game Four… 7-1 O/U last four years: All NBA Playoff home teams off a DOUBLE-DIGIT Playoff win… and back-to-back Playoff losses before that (WARRIORS) when the OU line is < 198 points.

Golden State was held to just 91 and 93 points in Games Two and Three respectively. They finally broke over the ‘century mark’ on Thursday night (103 points)… 8-1 O/U last 5 years: All NBA Playoff non-division teams who scored 103 < pts… 93 < pts… and 93 < pts in each of their last three Playoff games (WARRIORS) when the OU line is 186 > points.

The ATS margin from Cleveland’s Game Four Thursday loss was -17 points. They were an underdog of +3 and lost by 21 points… So far THIS season, NBA Playoff underdogs off a HOME Playoff ATS loss of -15 > pts (CAVALIERS) have gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U. In the last three seasons, UNDERDOGS of +6 or more points (CAVS) have gone a perfect 5-0 O/U.

Cleveland scored only 82 points at home in that Thursday Game Four loss. They shot only 33% from the field (29 for 88). The law of averages dictates that they HAVE to improve on that poor shooting night. And also… NBA Playoff underdogs off a home Playoff loss worth 82 or less points (CAVALIERS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in the last three years when the OU line is 182 > points. In the last two seasons, these games have averaged a mighty 232 combined points per game!
So Cleveland’s last three playoff games have resulted in 82 points (Thursday)… 96 points (Tuesday)… and 95 points (Sunday)… 6-0 O/U since 2005: All NBA Playoff road underdogs who scored < 85 points… 95 > points… and 95 > points in their last three Playoff games (CLEVELAND).
In the last ten seasons, this CAVALIERS @ WARRIORS series (IN San Francisco) has gone 7-1 O/U when the OU line was < 199 points. Average combined points in these games: 214.6.
 

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Baseball Crusher
Kansas City Royals + St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7.5
(System Record: 31-2, lost last game)
Overall Record: 31-35

Rest of the Plays
San Francisco Giants -140 over Arizona Dbacks
Chicago Cubs -150 over Cincy Reds
Philadelphia Phillies +129 over Pittsburgh Pirates
 

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Basketball Crusher
Cleveland Cavaliers + Golden State OVER 195.5
(System Record: 96-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 96-101-5
 

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Soccer Crusher
Palmeiras + Fluminense UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 772-25, won last game)
Overall Record: 772-622-121
 

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Frank Patron

10,000 Unit MLB Blowout


Washington Nationals -145 over Milwaukee

Listed Pitchers
 
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SPORTSBOOK FINANCIAL

MLB Financial Club Game's of the Night

$1000 Dollar Play - Chicago White Sox - 1st 5 innings -130

$1000 Dollar Play - Detroit Tigers +120

$1000 Dollar Play - Texas Rangers - 1st 5 innings -115
 
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Bob Balfe

Minnesota / Texas
Martinez/Hughes
The Twins got themselves out to a nice start this year. This team was facing a lot of left handed pitching and hitting it well, but against right handed pitching they were the same old Twins. Minnesota has really started to fade in the past few games while Texas is starting to make a run. Take the Rangers.

The Warriors have gone to a smaller lineup and are going to push the pace. The reason for this is they don't think the Cavs can keep up on offense. Cleveland does not have the ability to slow this game down on the road and are going to have to up the pace. I think the Warriors win the game, but just don't like this huge line in such a big game. Nobody is giving the Cavs a shot, but they still have the best player in the game on their team. Look for a lot of offense. Take the Over 195.5
 
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Shield Bet

All Triples

Under 6.5 rays game
under 8 Astros game
Under 7 brewers game
under 9 rangers game
under 7.5 cubs game
 

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