Service Plays Sunday 5/4/14

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[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/4/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Sunday, 5/4/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
________________________________________________

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#545 BROOKLYN @ #546 TORONTO
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Raptors -3, Total: 188.5) - The Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors meet Sunday in Toronto in Game #7 of their first-round series, with the winner advancing to face defending NBA champion Miami. The Nets stayed alive with a 97-83 win at home on Friday, building a 26-point lead and hanging on in their most complete effort of the series. Brooklyn did it with the players on whom the franchise is leaning, as Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett combined for 65 points on 50 percent shooting.

The Raptors earned the right to decide this on their home floor but will have some pressure to make it hold up and bring the franchise its first playoff series win in 13 years, especially with the experienced Nets now oozing with confidence. Pierce said he loved his team's chances and reserve center Andray Blatche already guaranteed that Brooklyn will be moving on to face Miami, but Toronto's players were not backing down. "For us to have any doubt in our minds right now is not acceptable," Raptors forward Patrick Patterson told reporters following Game #6.

•ABOUT THE NETS (47-41 SU, 45-42-1 ATS): Some of the Game #6 performance can be credited to coach Jason Kidd's personnel shifts, which saw him replace Shaun Livingston with Alan Anderson - who had nine points and a team-high nine rebounds - in the starting lineup and stick with more experience off the bench. Kidd also relied on Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in the fourth quarter after sitting them in the final period in Game #5, and Garnett had a pair of big hoops to help fight off another fourth-quarter rally for Toronto. "(Kidd) wanted to mix it up a little bit, and it was a good call," said Garnett, who tied a series high with 13 points while playing 27 minutes, his highest total since Jan. 10.

•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (51-37 SU, 48-36-4 ATS): DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have carried Toronto much of the season and are averaging a combined 44.8 points in the series, but they could use a little help in Game #7. No other Raptor scored in double figures and the team as a whole shot 38.5 percent in the 83-point showing Friday night. Forward Amir Johnson has proven to be the most important complementary piece, averaging 14.7 points and 6.7 rebounds in Toronto's three wins, compared to 4.3 points and four boards in its losses.

•PREGAME NOTES: Anderson is averaging 11 points in the last two games after totaling 13 on 5-of-15 shooting in the first four.... DeRozan and Lowry have combined to shoot 39.5 percent from the floor.... Raptors C Jonas Valanciunas is shooting 68.2 percent from the field and 61.2 percent from the line in the series.... Brooklyn is 16-3 versus the spread (84.2%) in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.... Toronto is 42-29 against the spread (59.1%) versus teams who attempt 18 or more three-point shots/game on the season this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 505 times, while BROOKLYN covered the spread 475 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO won the game straight up 579 times, while BROOKLYN won 399 times. In 1000 simulated games, 774 games went over the total, while 226 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the first half line 505 times, while TORONTO covered the first half line 495 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 672 games went over first half total, while 298 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TORONTO is 39-35 against the spread versus BROOKLYN since 1996.
--BROOKLYN is 42-39 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--40 of 75 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--TORONTO is 38-38 versus the first half line when playing against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--47 of 77 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Nets are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Nets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Nets are 5-0-1 ATS L6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Nets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

--Raptors are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--Raptors are 0-5-2 ATS L7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Raptors are 0-4-1 ATS L5 home vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - All teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (TORONTO) – a good 3 point shooting team - making >=36% of their attempts, after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season.
(184-128 over the last 5 seasons.) (59.0%, +43.2 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.1, Opponent 46.9 (Total first half points scored = 95.1)

The situation's record this season is: (15-21).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (116-80).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (684-723).
_______________________________

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Western Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#549 DALLAS @ #550 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 3:30 PM EST, ABC - Line: Spurs -6.5, Total: 198.5) - The Dallas Mavericks aim to become the sixth No. 8 seed in NBA history to win a first-round playoff series when they visit the San Antonio Spurs for Game #7 on Sunday. Dallas rallied to grab a 113-111 win in a do-or-die Game #6 at home Friday, pushing the Spurs to the verge of its second first-round loss as a top seed in just four seasons. The Mavericks will be undaunted by a Game #7 on the road, having won Game #2 in San Antonio by 21 points and going to the wire in their other two road games.

The numbers are in San Antonio's favor, as home teams were 91-23 all-time in Game #7s in all rounds entering the weekend, but Dallas has given itself a chance to pull off the upset. "It's the ultimate thrill," Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki said of having one game to stay alive. San Antonio is 3-5 in Game #7s, including a loss in the NBA Finals last season and another in overtime against Dallas in the 2006 Western Conference semifinals.

•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (52-36 SU, 50-38-0 ATS): It is clear that Dallas missed the presence of forward DeJuan Blair in its Game #5 loss at San Antonio, as the former Spur was suspended during the Mavericks' 109-103 loss but returned to provide 10 points, 14 rebounds and four steals on Friday. Blair, Devin Harris and Vince Carter combined for 34 points off the Dallas bench in Game #6, continuing a solid contribution for the reserves in support of Nowitzki and Monta Ellis, who is the top scorer among both teams in the series. "We pride ourselves on trying to outscore and dominate the other team’s second unit," Carter said after the Mavericks' bench secured a 37-25 scoring advantage on San Antonio's reserves.

•ABOUT THE SPURS (65-23 SU, 45-43-0 ATS): Despite the loss in Game #6, San Antonio has to feel good about the emergence of guard Danny Green, who shook off a series of lackluster play with 17 points on 7-of-7 shooting in the setback. Green had only six baskets combined in the first five games and was never a factor down the stretch until he buried a big 3-pointer with 12 seconds left to help keep the Spurs close in Game #6. His emergence did plenty to offset a difficult game for fellow shooting guard Manu Ginobili, who entered leading the team in scoring for the series before going 1-for-8 from the floor and missing all five of his 3-point tries in a six-point showing.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Spurs were ousted as a No. 1 seed by Memphis in 2011.... Ellis has scored at least 20 points in five straight games after producing 11 in Game #1.... San Antonio is 64-21 at home in the playoffs since moving into the AT&T Center during the 2002-03 season.... The Mavericks are 15-2 against the spread (88.2%) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.... San Antonio is 13-25 versus the spread ( 34.2%) versus good shooting teams - making more than 46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the spread 509 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 491 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 636 times, while DALLAS won 342 times. In 1000 simulated games, 718 games went over the total, while 282 games went under the total. #EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the first half line 540 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 460 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 638 games went over first half total, while 333 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 52-50 against the spread versus DALLAS since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 65-42 straight up against DALLAS since 1996.
--55 of 105 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 54-50 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1996.
--56 of 105 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in San Antonio.

--Road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
--Underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Mavericks are 7-0 ATS L7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Mavericks are 6-0 ATS L6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

--Spurs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
--Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (DALLAS) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more, in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (>=36.5%).
(51-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.8%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 195.3
The average score in these games was: Team 100.5, Opponent 101.6 (Total points scored = 202.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 44 (62% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (11-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (108-78).
_______________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Mavericks at Spurs

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs (-6.5, 197.5)

Series tied 3-3.

The Dallas Mavericks aim to become the sixth No. 8 seed in NBA history to win a first-round playoff series when they visit the San Antonio Spurs for Game 7 on Sunday. Dallas rallied to grab a 113-111 win in a do-or-die Game 6 at home Friday, pushing the Spurs to the verge of its second first-round loss as a top seed in just four seasons. The Mavericks will be undaunted by a Game 7 on the road, having won Game 2 in San Antonio by 21 points and going to the wire in their other two road games.

The numbers are in San Antonio's favor, as home teams were 91-23 all-time in Game 7s in all rounds entering the weekend, but Dallas has given itself a chance to pull off the upset. "It's the ultimate thrill," Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki said of having one game to stay alive. San Antonio is 3-5 in Game 7s, including a loss in the NBA Finals last season and another in overtime against Dallas in the 2006 Western Conference semifinals.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as 6-point home faves but have been bet to -6.5. The total opened 198 and has been bet up to 198.5.

INJURY REPORT: Mavericks - Jose Calderon (Probable, Nose).

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "While the Spurs controlled the regular season meetings, going 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) versus the Mavericks, that has not been the case in this playoff series. It is tied 3-3, but the Mavericks are a perfect 6-0 ATS as their three playoff losses have come by just 5, 4, and 6 point margins. Home teams historically win Game 7 straight-up, but covering might be a different story as the current line is Spurs -6.5 and San Antonio has yet to win by that large of a margin in this entire playoff series." Covers' Experts Steve Merril

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: It is clear that Dallas missed the presence of forward DeJuan Blair in its Game 5 at San Antonio, as the former Spur was suspended during the Mavericks' 109-103 loss but returned to provide 10 points, 14 rebounds and four steals on Friday. Blair, Devin Harris and Vince Carter combined for 34 points off the Dallas bench in Game 6, continuing a solid contribution for the reserves in support of Nowitzki and Monta Ellis, who is the top scorer among both teams in the series. "We pride ourselves on trying to outscore and dominate the other team’s second unit," Carter said after the Mavericks' bench secured a 37-25 scoring advantage on San Antonio's reserves.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Despite the loss in Game 6, San Antonio has to feel good about the emergence of guard Danny Green, who shook off a series of lackluster play with 17 points on 7-of-7 shooting in the loss. Green had only six baskets combined in the first five games and was never a factor down the stretch until he buried a big 3-pointer with 12 seconds left to help keep the Spurs close in Game 6. His emergence did plenty to offset a difficult game for fellow shooting guard Manu Ginobili, who entered leading the team in scoring for the series before going 1-for-8 from the floor and missing all five of his 3-point tries in a six-point showing.

TRENDS:

* Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Spurs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of wagers are on the Mavericks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Raptors -3
Marlins(RL) -1.5(+131)
Cubs +125

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, MAY 4th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Sunday, 5/4/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #5
•Darvish Has Been Money Against In Los Angeles: Yu Darvish is good. Through five starts this season, Darvish has a 2.59 ERA and 33 strikeouts. However, Darvish has been stellar for the Texas Rangers when they face division rival Los Angeles. Darvish has won all of his five road starts against the Angels in his career, allowing only 2.6 runs per game and tallying 8.4 SO per game. The Rangers (-113) and Darvish will look to continue dominance over the Angels Sunday (+104).

•Phillies Dominant Against Nationals When Hamels Starts: Cole Hamels has not really been what the Philadelphia Phillies had hoped since coming off the DL. Hamels has gone 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA over only 10.2 innings pitched, but the Phillies should be happy to see him take the mound against the Washington Nationals. The Phillies have gone 21-6 (77.8 percent) in their last 27 contests against the Nationals. Hamels will look to reverse his early season woes Sunday as the Phillies (-104) welcome the Nationals (-112) for Game #3 of the weekend series.

•Nolan Arenado Extends Hitting Streak To 22 Games: The Colorado Rockies have charged out to a surprising 18-13 mark so far on the season. That puts them one game back of the San Francisco Giants and 1.5 games in front of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The biggest reason for their early success is their offense, which has been keyed by the hot starts of Charlie Blackmon, Justin Morneau, and Troy Tulowitzki, among others. One guy who is enjoying quite the offensive outburst is second-year third baseman Nolan Arenado. Arenado, who is batting .309/.323/.463 so far through 31 games, extended his hitting streak to 22 games on Friday against the New York Mets.

-- Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun was placed on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with a right oblique strain. The move is retroactive to April 27. He is eligible to come off the DL on May 12. Braun has not played since April 26. He was initially projected to miss three to five games after an MRI taken Monday confirmed the injury. However, the team decided to place him on the DL after he was re-evaluated. Braun is batting .318 with six home runs and 18 RBIs in 22 games. In a corresponding move, the Brewers activated outfielder Logan Schafer from the DL.

-- The Seattle Mariners activated right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma from the disabled list and is scheduled to make his season debut Saturday against the Houston Astros. Iwakuma, who placed third in the American League Cy Young Award balloting last year, sustained a strained ligament in his right middle finger in January. In 2013, Iwakuma went 14-6 with a 2.66 ERA in 33 starts.

-- The Chicago White Sox placed center fielder Adam Eaton on the 15-day disabled list due to a strained right hamstring. The club also transferred right-hander Nate Jones to the 60-day DL, recalled left-hander Frank De Los Santos from Triple-A Charlotte and claimed outfielder Moises Sierra off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays.

-- The Cleveland Indians placed catcher Yan Gomes on the paternity list, purchased the contract of catcher George Kottaras from Triple-A Columbus, recalled left-hander Nick Hagadone from AAA Columbus and designated infielder Elliott Johnson for assignment.

-- The Toronto Blue Jays removed Sergio Santos from his role as closer. Santos blew his third save of the season Friday night against the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving up three runs while getting only two outs. Santos is 0-2 with five saves with a 10.61 ERA in 10 appearances. Aaron Loup will be used as the fill-in closer Saturday night and has a chance to keep the job until Casey Janssen (oblique) returns from the disabled list.

-- Los Angeles Angels third baseman David Freese has a broken right middle finger after getting hit on the hand by a pitch during Friday night's game against the Texas Rangers, but hopes to avoid a trip to the disabled list. The injury is to Freese's throwing hand but whether or not he goes on the DL will be determined by how he feels in the next few days.

-- The New York Yankees signed right-handed reliever Alfredo Aceves to a major league contract and placed him on the 25-man roster from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. In 2013, Aceves went 4-1 with a 4.86 ERA in 37 innings with the Boston Red Sox. To make room for Aceves, the club designated right-hander Chris Leroux for assignment. Leroux, 30, has allowed five earned runs in two innings of relief.

Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Washington won last three Gonzalez starts (1-0, 3.00).
-- Fernandez is 2-0, 1.17 in his last three starts.
-- Simon is 3-0, 2.41 in his last three starts. Lohse is 4-1, 3.27 in his last five.
-- Gee is 2-1, 0.86 in his last three starts.
-- Ross is 3-1, 3.42 in his last four starts.
-- Hammel is 4-1, 2.08 in five starts this season. Lynn is 2-1, 2.63 in his last four starts.

-- Rienzo has a 4.97 RA in two starts, but White Sox both games, scoring total of 13 runs. Kluber is 1-2, 4.43 in his last three starts.
-- Gray is 4-1, 2.20 in six starts this season. Lackey is 2-0, 1.69 in his last two starts.
-- Detroit won last four Verlander starts (3-0, 3.46). Vargas is 2-0, 2.53 in three home starts this season.
-- Hughes is 2-0, 3.43 in his last couple starts.
-- McHugh is 2-0, 0.59 in two starts for Houston.
-- Angels are 4-0 when Skaggs starts (2-0, 3.54).

•Cold Pitchers
-- Hernandez is 0-1, 6.86 in his last four starts.
-- Fife is making first '14 start; he was 1-2, 6.00 in his last three '13 starts.
-- Bumgarner is 0-3, 4.76 in his last three starts. Wood is 0-3, 3.86 in his last three starts.
-- Chacin is making first '14 start; he was 1-3, 6.43 in his last five '13 starts.
-- Miley is 0-2, 7.36 in his last four starts.

-- Bedard is 0-1, 6.39 in three starts this season. Sabathia is 0-2, 6.00 in two home starts this season.
-- MGonzalez is 0-1, 5.40 in his last two starts.
-- Maurer is 0-0, 3.86 in two starts this season.
-- Darvish is 0-1, 6.75 in his last couple starts.

-- Volquez is 0-2, 5.68 in his last couple starts. McGowan is 0-2, 10.29 in his last three starts.

•Totals
-- Nine of last thirteen games at Wrigley Field went over.
-- Ten of thirteen Washington road games went over.
-- Seven of last eleven Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Eight of last ten Dodger games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten Colorado games went over total.
-- Under is 6-0-2 in San Diego's last eight home games.

-- Four of last five Pittsburgh games went over total..

-- 12 of last 16 Tampa Bay games went over total.
-- Five of last seven White Sox road games went over.
-- Six of last nine games at Fenway Park went over.
-- Six of Kansas City's last seven home games went over.
-- Nine of last eleven Baltimore road games went over.
-- Six of last seven Seattle games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Angel home games.

•Hot Teams
-- Cubs won four of their last five games.
-- Nationals won five of their last seven games.
-- Brewers won 12 of its 16 road games.
-- Dodgers won 12 of their 16 road games. Miami won six of its last eight home games.
-- Giants won eight of their last nine games.
-- Rockies won eight of its last ten home games.
-- Diamondbacks won its last four road games.

-- Pirates won last two games in last at-bat, scoring 14 runs.

-- Rays won three of its last four games.
-- Red Sox won five of their last eight games.
-- Indians won six of their last seven home games.
-- Tigers won six of its last seven games.
-- Orioles won seven of their last eleven games.
-- Mariners won six of their last eight games.
-- Angels won five of their last six home games.

•Cold Teams
-- Cardinals lost seven of its last nine road games.
-- Phillies lost four of their last six home games.
-- Reds lost five of its last eight games.
-- Braves lost their last five games.
-- Mets lost last three nights, giving up 28 runs.
-- Padres lost nine of their last thirteen games.

-- Blue Jays lost eight of its last ten games.

-- Yankees lost three of its last four games.
-- White Sox are 5-10 on the road.
-- Athletics are 5-7 in its last twelve games.
-- Twins lost five of its last seven games.
-- Royals are 5-8 in its last thirteen games.
-- Astros lost 12 of their last 16 home games.
-- Rangers lost six of their last eight games.

•Umpires Trends
-- Wsh-Phil-- Last four Barber games went over total.
-- LA-Mia- Three of last four Bucknor games stayed under.
-- SF-Atl-- Last three Porter games stayed under total.
-- Az-SD-- Home teams won last four Rackley games.
-- Mil-Cin-- Underdogs won five of last six Wendelstedt games.
-- NY-Col-- Underdogs won four of six Schrieber games.
-- StL-Chi-- Three of four Hernandez games went over.

-- TB-NY-- Five of six Hudson games stayed under total.
-- A's-Bos-- Under is 3-1-1 in Ripperger games this year.
-- Chi-Clev-- Favorites won last four Hoberg games.
-- Sea-Hst-- All five Wegner games stayed under total.
-- Det-KC-- Home teams won last four Morales games.
-- Blt-Min-- Three of four Pattillo games stayed under.
-- Tex-LA-- Three of four Demuth games stayed under the total.

-- Tor-Pitt-- Six of seven Gibson games stayed under total.

Diamond Trends - Sunday
•ATLANTA is 13-1 (+14.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 5.6, OPPONENT 2.3.

•MINNESOTA is 12-1 OVER (+11.3 Units) versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 6.4.

•OAKLAND is 31-10 (+25.8 Units) against the run line versus a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OAKLAND 4.1, OPPONENT 3.0.

•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 3-14 (-22.3 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 3.4, OPPONENT 4.8.

•MADISON BUMGARNER is 18-6 UNDER (+11.0 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BUMGARNER 3.0, OPPONENT 2.8.

•KYLE LOHSE is 19-5 (+17.4 Units) against the run line versus an National League team with they batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOHSE 4.2, OPPONENT 2.7.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI) - poor National League offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.3 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -108.8
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.7)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2, +5.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (124-87, +29.8 units).

•Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (OAKLAND) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts.
(39-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.2%, +33.8 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (37-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2, money line price: +125
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 25 (46.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-10, +24.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (47-29, +26.4 units).

•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 or less (SAN DIEGO) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.3 runs/game on the season (National League) against opponent terrible offensive team - scoring <=3.8 runs/game on the season (NL).
(51-17 since 1997.) (75.0%, +34.1 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 6.7, Money Line=+100.2
The average score in these games was: Team 4.4, Opponent 4.3 (Total runs scored = 8.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 39 (54.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (6-2, +4.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (39-12, +27.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (48-14, +34.1 units).
___________________________________________

 

[cracy]

StatSystemsSports.net
Inside the Paint- Sunday

A back-and-forth series will finally be decided (1:00 PM EST) on ABC Sunday afternoon when the Toronto Raptors host the Brooklyn Nets in Game #7 of the first-round playoffs. Toronto had a chance to close out the series in Friday's Game #6, but Brooklyn jumped out to a 34-19 lead after the first quarter and never looked back, prevailing 97-83 to extend the series.

Meanwhile, in a 3:30 PM EST start the Dallas Mavericks look to complete a huge upset over the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs in Game #7. An amazing playoff series continued on Friday night, as Dallas tied up the series with a 113-111 victory as a three-point underdog. Mavs SG Monta Ellis was the high-scorer in the contest with 29 points, while each team had six players with double-digit points.

Betting Notes - Sunday
•Five of six Toronto-Brooklyn games were decided by 8 or less points, with home side going 2-1 in each building. Raptors blew a 26-point lead in Game #5 at the Air Canada Centre, rallied to win/ DeRozan scored 30-30-24-23-29 points in last four games, but is just 40-106 from floor in series. Toronto was +7 in turnovers last two games; they're -18 (89-71) in series. Brooklyn lost seven of last 11 games. Underdogs are 4-1-1 versus spread so far in series.

•Dallas lost 12 of last 15 meetings versus Spurs, but they've covered all six in this series and last seven games overall- their two series losses at AT&T Center were by 5-6 points. Underdogs covered last nine Dallas games. Four of last five series matchups went over total; over is 23-20 in San Antonio home games this year. Spurs covered once in their last eight games as favorite. Five of six series games were decided by six points or less.

Hoop Trends - Sunday
•DALLAS is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.
The average score was DALLAS 103.4, OPPONENT 103.8.

•BROOKLYN is 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was BROOKLYN 100.2, OPPONENT 101.0.

•DALLAS is 11-2 (+8.8 Units) against the 1rst half line versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was DALLAS 52.4, OPPONENT 51.2.

•SAN ANTONIO is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 48.4, OPPONENT 42.4.

•RICK CARLISLE is 30-12 OVER (+16.8 Units) versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was CARLISLE 103, OPPONENT 98.2.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Road underdogs of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (DALLAS) – an excellent free throw shooting team (>=79%) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games.
(61-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.5%, +36.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.9, Opponent 50.5 (Average first half point differential = +1.4)

The situation's record this season is: (7-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-6).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (124-102).
___________________________________________

 

[jdsabre]

EZWINNERS

2* D-Backs +100
2* Rockies $150
2* Cubs +105
2* Indians -155
2* Giants +115
2* Red Sox +130
2* Tigers -130

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Milwaukee at Cincinnati

The Brewers look to bounce back from yesterday's loss to the Reds and come into today's contest with a 6-0 record in Kyle Lohse's last 6 starts as a road underdog. Milwaukee is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 4 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Washington at Philadelphia (3:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 16.334; Philadelphia (Burnett) 14.786 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-125); Under

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Fife) 16.697; Miami (Fernandez) 15.788 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Miami (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+170); Over

Game 905-906: San Francisco at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.138; Atlanta (Wood) 16.425 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Over

Game 907-908: Arizona at San Diego (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 14.919; San Diego (Ross) 14.341 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Under

Game 909-910: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.407; Cincinnati (Simon) 14.210 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Under

Game 911-912: NY Mets at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 15.330; Colorado (Chacin) 16.558 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 12 Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Over

Game 913-914: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.057; Cubs (Hammel) 14.611 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); N/A

Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Bedard) 15.475; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 14.480 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+140); Under

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Rienzo) 14.918; Cleveland (Kluber) 14.099 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+135); Over

Game 919-920: Oakland at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 16.762; Boston (Lackey) 15.450 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115); Under

Game 921-922: Seattle at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Maurer) 13.895; Houston (McHugh) 14.912 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-115); Over

Game 923-924: Detroit at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.142; Kansas City (Vargas) 16.115 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Under

Game 925-926: Baltimore at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.606; Minnesota (Hughes) 14.552 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over

Game 927-928: Texas at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 16.489; LA Angels (Skaggs) 14.827 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Under

Game 929-930: Toronto at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (McGowan) 15.603; Pittsburgh (Volquez) 14.773 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-135); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play SUN Over 5 Blackhawks/Minn NHL

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Sunday

Mets +130

Mavs +6.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Candy Boy in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday and likes the Nets on Sunday.

The deficit is 315 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

Dallas at San Antonio

The Mavericks head to San Antonio for Game 7 following a 113-111 win in Game 6 and face a Spurs team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Dallas is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 4 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 545-546: Brooklyn at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 120.581; Toronto 124.920 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 4 1/2; 183 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 187 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-2 1/2); Under

Game 547-548: Dallas at San Antonio (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.175; San Antonio 124.480 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 205 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 197 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6 1/2); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NHL Picks

NY Rangers at Pittsburgh

The Penguins look to bounce back from their 3-2 overtime loss in Game 1 as they face a Rangers team that is 1-4 in its last 5 games following a win. Pittsburgh is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-165). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 4 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 11-12: Minnesota at Chicago (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.540; Chicago 11.876 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-220); 5 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+185); Under

Game 13-14: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.688; Pittsburgh 12.156 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-165); 5 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-165); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Sunday, May 4

Five of six Toronto-Brooklyn games were decided by 8 or less points, with home side going 2-1 in each building. Raptors blew 26-point lead in Game 5 here, rallied to win/ DeRozan scored 30-30-24-23-29 points in last four games, but is just 40-106 from floor in series. Toronto was +7 in turnovers last two games; they're -18 (89-71) in series. Brooklyn lost seven of last 11 games. Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread so far in series.

Dallas lost 12 of last 15 games vs Spurs, but they've covered all six in this series and last seven games overall- their two series losses here are by 5-6 points. Underdogs covered last nine Dallas games. Four of last five series games went over total; over is 23-20 in San Antonio home games this year. Spurs covered once in their last eight games as favorite. Five of six series games were decided by six points or less.

From Spreadapedia: since 2006 game 7 unders are 23-7. 18-3 for lines less than 190. Since 2003 first round game 6-7's, under is 28-16-1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Sunday, May 4

Rangers are playing third road game in five days; they're 3-2 vs Penguins this year, after Pitt won eight of previous nine games in series. Over is 4-0-1 in series games this season. Rangers lost five of last seven visits here- they haven't scored on power play since Game 2 of Pilly series- they're 28-17 on road. Pittsburgh is 31-14 at home this year; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Pens outshot New York 27-12 in periods 2-3 Friday, rallied from 2-0 deficit but Rangers 3:06 into OT to grab home ice advantage in series.

Minnesota scored twice in first 6:56 of third period to tie Game 1 2-2, but then lost 5-2, their 8th loss in last ten games here. Chicago won its last five games, allowing total of eight goals; they were 2-4 on power play in Game 1, scoring three goals on six third period shots. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven series tilts. Minnesota outshot Blackhawks 17-3 in second period Friday, but Chicago scored only goal of period. Chicago is 33-12 at home this year, winning all four home playoff games. Wild was down 2-0 in Colorado series, rallied back to win series.

League-wide, over is 32-11-10 in the playoffs, 3-0-2 in this round.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

OAKLAND
ROCKIES

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
Texas Rangers -113 over Los Angeles Angels
(System Record: 20-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 20-13

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -200 over Minnesota Wild
(Playoff Record: 12-3, won last 5 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 103-78-2

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Dallas Mavericks +6.5 over San Antonio
(Playoff Record: 7-5-2, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 84-90-7