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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/25/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________



***** Sunday, 5/25/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Playoff Journal (May 24)
Our last update was prior to Game #2 of the Oklahoma City/San Antonio series. The Thunder entered that game knowing they were undermanned without Ibaka but talked as if they were undaunted and undeterred. Oklahoma City led 26-24 after the first quarter and was up 36-33 in the second when the Spurs blitzed them with a 43-14 run spanning the second and third quarters! San Antonio would win the second quarter 34-18 and the third 33-18, on the way to a second consecutive dominating victory, 112-77!

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook each only had 15 points, shooting a combined 13 of 40 from the floor (32.5%), including 1 of 9 on threes. OKC's remaining three starters were again BRUTAL, combining for four points (2 of 9 shooting), while the Thunder connected on only TWO of 20 three-pointers as a team. The 77 points tied the Thunder's fewest-ever in a playoff game since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City in 2008 (also scored 77 points in 2012 vs. the Lakers).

San Antonio's starting guards, Tony Parker (22) and Danny Green (21) led the way, as Green made SEVEN, three-pointers. Big men Tim Duncan (14 & 12) and Tiago Splitter (9 & 10) had solid games while Kawhi Leonard, who has had a terrific postseason, was able to have a rare quiet game (played just 16 minutes, scoring four points), with no damage. The Spurs are now 7-1 straight-up and versus the number since their Game #7 blowout of the Mavericks, winning those seven games by an average margin of 21.9 PPG.

Thursday and Friday were days off in both series, with Game #3s in each series being played Saturday and Sunday, respectively. Home teams are now 41-35 SU (.539) this postseason but just 30-43-3 ATS, which is 41.1% and a whopping minus-17.3 net games! After both Game #1s of the conference finals went over, both Game #2s stayed under. However, over bettors are still "sitting pretty," with 44 overs and just 32 unders after 76 games (57.9% win rate favoring the over). "Zig-Zaggers" are 1-1 in the conference finals and remain profitable, at 33-26-3 ATS (plus-4.4 net games).

The Pacers and Heat resume play Saturday at 8:30 PM EST on ESPN, with the series tied at one-all. The home team had won NINE consecutive meetings in this rivalry (including 13 of the last 15) heading into Game #2 but the Pacers shot just 40.0% as a team and scored only 83 points, 24 fewer than in their Game #1 win, when they shot 51.5%. Lance Stephenson was superb (25-6-7) but Paul George and David West combined to shoot a miserable 9 of 32 from the floor (28.1%), totaling only 24 points. George in particular had a poor game (after getting 24 by himself in Game #1), missing 10 of 11 first-half shots. Roy Hibbert played well (13 & 13) but it was not nearly enough.

The Heat were the NBA's best shooting team during the regular season (50.1%) and while they shot 51.3% in Game #1, they fell 11 points short. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade combined for 52 points on 63.9% shooting in Game #1 and while their production dropped slightly in Game #2 (45 points), they again shot efficiently (55.9% for LBJ and Wade, 50.7% for the team as a whole). However, defense was the key for Miami, as it held Indiana to nine points over a 10-minute stretch in the first half and closed it out by allowing just 10 points over the final 7:19 of the game.

The series' next two games are in Miami and the Pacers announced Friday night that George has been cleared "to return to normal basketball activity," a decision made three days after he was concussed in Game #2. "Barring any unforeseen complications, he will play" on Saturday evening in South Beach, the Pacers said. That's one lineup issue settled.

The Heat also have a lineup decision to make. Greg Oden, whose last postseason appearance was April 30, 2009, may be inserted into the Heat rotation after showing Miami's coaches in recent days that back issues that slowed him down for weeks may finally be a thing of the past. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra suggested that Oden "could" get some minutes, which would almost certainly come against Indiana center Roy Hibbert. "If coach needs me, I'm ready to play," Oden said. "I'm definitely ready whenever he needs me."

Miami is 5-0 at home in the postseason, winning by an average of 10.0 PPG, while shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor. Going back to last season, the Heat have won EIGHT straight playoff games in their own building and since LBJ joined the club they're 35-7 straight-up (83.3%) at home during the postseason. However, among those seven losses since the arrival of LeBron James, TWO are Indiana wins in both 2012 and 2013. "Both teams can win on each other's floor. We've proven that the last couple years," James said.

"We have to protect our home, but we can't go out there saying that just because we're back home we get automatic wins. We've got to play." Let's also add the fact that the Pacers have won FIVE straight road playoff games (they are 5-1 on the road this postseason compared to just 4-5 at home) but then again, winning in Atlanta and Washington is one thing, while winning in Miami is quite another matter.
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Western Conference Finals

#511 SAN ANTONIO @ #512 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, TNT - Line: Thunder -2, Total: 208.5) - San Antonio dominated the first two games of the Western Conference finals and Oklahoma City strives to record a breakthrough victory when the Thunder host the Spurs on Sunday night. San Antonio won two home games by an average of 26 points, including a 35-point victory in Game #2 that left the Thunder shell-shocked. Oklahoma City also dug itself a 0-2 hole in the 2012 conference finals against the Spurs before rallying to win the next four games.

The Thunder have upgraded power forward Serge Ibaka (calf) from out to day-to-day and general manager Sam Presti cautioned that the announcement doesn’t mean Ibaka is playing in Game #3. “I think it’s important, when you look at this, to recognize that we’re not saying that he’s playing but what we’re really trying to indicate is that the information is telling us that we can’t rule him out,” Presti told reporters on Friday. San Antonio has thrived in the interior with 120 points in the paint over the first two games and has also made nine 3-pointers in each contest.

•ABOUT THE SPURS (72-24 SU, 52-44-0 ATS): The veteran club isn’t willing to rest on its laurels despite the consecutive routs. Power forward Tim Duncan and guard Manu Ginobili both referenced the collapse of two years ago in their respective sessions with reporters on Friday. “We cannot take anything for granted,” Ginobili said. “We had a great start and ended up losing the series. We are playing a team that is so talented and has so many way of scoring – it is never over until you win the fourth game. We know that and most of us were on that team.”

•ABOUT THE THUNDER (67-30 SU, 50-44-3 ATS): Earlier this week, Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks made it clear Ibaka wasn’t going to return during the series but the situation quickly changed with the Thunder landing in a dire situation. Oklahoma City went 4-0 against the Spurs in the regular season but has been caught in a severe mismatch against Duncan without Ibaka’s presence. “He’s still out,” Brooks told reporters. “We’re still focusing on trying to beat the Spurs without him playing, and that has not changed. I know he’s listed as day-to-day but, still, he is out until I’m told differently. All of our attentions and game planning is to focus on ways to play much better than we did last game.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Spurs PG Tony Parker has displayed no signs of his recent hamstring injury, shooting 55.2 percent from the field while averaging 18 points and 8.5 assists.... Oklahoma City stars Kevin Durant (21.5 points, six rebounds) and Russell Westbrook (20 points, six assists) are shooting a combined 40 percent from the field.... San Antonio SG Danny Green has made 11-of-15 3-pointers – including seven in Game 2 -- while averaging 18.5 points over the first two games.... The Thunder are 16-5 versus the spread (76.1%) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Spurs are 20-9 against the spread (68.9%) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 598 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 377 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 545 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY won 431 times. In 1000 simulated games, 546 games went under the total, while 454 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 578 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 390 times. *EDGE against first half line =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, 526 games went under first half total, while 440 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 43-41 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 51-35 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--42 of 81 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 44-41 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--43 of 83 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Spurs are 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
--Spurs are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma City.

--Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Oklahoma City.

--Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games.
--Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

--Thunder are 14-3 ATS L17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
--Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 5-0 in Thunder L5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Any team where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, revenging a road blowout loss versus opponent of 30 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more.
(25-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (26-5 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.5
The average score in these games was: Team 106.5, Opponent 96.9 (Average point differential = +9.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (54.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-6).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (56-48).
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Game of the Day: Spurs at Thunder

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (-2, 208.5)

Spurs lead series 2-0.

San Antonio dominated the first two games of the Western Conference finals and Oklahoma City strives to record a breakthrough victory when the Thunder host the Spurs on Sunday. San Antonio won two home games by an average of 26 points, including a 35-point victory in Game 2 that left the Thunder shell-shocked. Oklahoma City also dug itself a 0-2 hole in the 2012 conference finals against the Spurs before rallying to win the next four games.

The Thunder have upgraded power forward Serge Ibaka (calf) from out to day-to-day and general manager Sam Presti cautioned that the announcement doesn’t mean Ibaka is playing in Game 3. “I think it’s important, when you look at this, to recognize that we’re not saying that he’s playing but what we’re really trying to indicate is that the information is telling us that we can’t rule him out,” Presti told reporters on Friday. San Antonio has thrived in the interior with 120 points in the paint over the first two games and has also made nine 3-pointers in each contest.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The line open at the Thunder -2.5, but quickly got bet down to -2 with the total jumping slightly from a 208 opening to 208.5.

INJURY REPORT: Thunder - S. Ibaka (Questionable/Calf)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The line has moved twice in San Antonio’s favor since opening. The Spurs have gone from +3 to +2 (-115). Bettors are still backing the Spurs with 69 percent of bets on San Antonio." - Mike Perry, Sportsbook.ag

WHAT SHARPS SAYS: "It will be interesting to see how the extended three day layoff affects both teams in Game 3. The Thunder have played five of their past six games on the road, so they will be happy to return home. They lost the first two games in the 2012 Western Conference Finals at San Antonio and then rebounded to win the next four in a row. However, things are a bit different now as the Thunder only lost those two games by three and nine points in 2012, compared to 17 and 35 point defeats this year. Plus, the Thunder have been playing without Serge Ibaka which leaves a major defensive gap in the middle." - Covers Experts' Steve Merril

ABOUT THE SPURS: The veteran club isn't willing to rest on its laurels despite the consecutive routs. Power forward Tim Duncan and guard Manu Ginobili both referenced the collapse of two years ago in their respective sessions with reporters on Friday. “We cannot take anything for granted,” Ginobili said. “We had a great start and ended up losing the series. We are playing a team that is so talented and has so many way of scoring – it is never over until you win the fourth game. We know that and most of us were on that team.”

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Earlier this week, Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks made it clear Ibaka wasn't going to return during the series but the situation quickly changed with the Thunder landing in a dire situation. Oklahoma City went 4-0 against the Spurs in the regular season but has been caught in a severe mismatch against Duncan without Ibaka’s presence. “He’s still out,” Brooks told reporters. “We’re still focusing on trying to beat the Spurs without him playing, and that has not changed. I know he’s listed as day-to-day but, still, he is out until I’m told differently. All of our attentions and game planning is to focus on ways to play much better than we did last game.”

TRENDS:

*Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
*Under is 6-2 in Thunder last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
*Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
*Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Oklahoma City.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 52 percent of bettors are taking the Thunder -2 with the bulk of the total on the over.
 
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Today's MLB Picks

NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox

The Yankees play the series finale against at White Sox team that is 6-0 in Andre Rienzo's last 6 starts as an underdog. Chicago is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+155). Here are all of today's picks.
SUNDAY, MAY 25
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Nelson) 15.956; Miami (Wolf) 14.271
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Under
Game 953-954: Arizona at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Arroyo) 13.450; NY Mets (Montero) 14.511
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-105); Over
Game 955-956: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Beckett) 15.831; Philadelphia (Burnett) 14.402
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Over
Game 957-958: Washington at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Fister) 15.520; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.611
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under
Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at San Diego (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hammel) 14.049; San Diego (Kennedy) 15.717
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-130); Over
Game 961-962: Colorado at Atlanta (5:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 15.151; Atlanta (Teheran) 14.623
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+150); Under
Game 963-964: St. Louis at Cincinnati (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.564; Cincinnati (Leake) 15.590
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+130); Under
Game 965-966: Texas at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.657; Detroit (Verlander) 16.122
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Over
Game 967-968: Oakland at Toronto (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Pomeranz) 16.648; Toronto (Happ) 15.112
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-125); Under
Game 969-970: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Bauer) 15.725; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 14.894
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+110); Over
Game 971-972: Boston at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Workman) 14.887; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 15.364
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under
Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Tanaka) 14.954; White Sox (Rienzo) 15.820
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+155); Over
Game 975-976: Kansas City at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Vargas) 15.549; LA Angels (Richards) 14.711
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+165); Under
Game 977-978: Houston at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 15.394; Seattle (Iwakuma) 16.778
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-170); Over
Game 979-980: Minnesota at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 15.812; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.913
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+150); Under
Game 981-982: Arizona at NY Mets (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Spruill) 13.552; NY Mets (Matsuzaka) 14.411
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

 
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Today's NHL Picks

Montreal at NY Rangers

The Rangers look to bounce back from their 3-2 loss in Game 3 and come into today's contest with a 7-2 record in their last 9 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. New York is the pick (-175) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-175). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
SUNDAY, MAY 25
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 13-14: Montreal at NY Rangers (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.239; NY Rangers 13.739
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-175); Under

 
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Today's NBA Picks

San Antonio at Oklahoma City

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Thunder look to bounce back in Game 3 against a San Antonio team that is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games at Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 25
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 511-512: San Antonio at Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.909; Oklahoma City 131.614
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2 1/2; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-2 1/2); Over

 
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WNBA Basketball Picks

San Antonio at Los Angeles

The Sparks host a San Antonio team that is 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between the two teams. Los Angeles is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-8). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.
SUNDAY, MAY 25
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 601-602: San Antonio at Los Angeles (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 106.675; Los Angeles 118.675
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 12; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 8; 154
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-8); Under
Game 603-604: Indiana at Atlanta (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 108.287; Atlanta 119.935
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 11 1/2; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 148
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6); Over

 
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StatFox Super Situations

SAN ANTONIO at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Against - Home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more, off a road loss 27-7 over the last 5 seasons. ( 79.4% | 19.3 units ) 4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.7 units )

SAN ANTONIO at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (SAN ANTONIO) after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, on Sunday games 66-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.5% | 36.4 units ) 12-11 this year. ( 52.2% | 0.6 units )

SAN ANTONIO at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, playing with 3 or more days rest 130-74 since 1997. ( 63.7% | 48.6 units ) 5-6 this year. ( 45.5% | -1.6 units )
 

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Baseball Crusher
Chicago Cubs +131 over San Diego Padres
(System Record: 31-0, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 31-23

Rest of the Plays
Los Angeles Angels -160 over Kansas City Royals
Tampa Bay Rays -124 over Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians +110 over Baltimore Orioles


 

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Hockey Crusher
Montreal Canadiens + New York Rangers UNDER 5
(Playoff Record: system 20-2: overall 20-13, lost last 4 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 111-87-2

Rest of the Plays
New York Rangers -170 over Montreal Canadians
 

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Basketball Crusher
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 over OKC
(Playoff Record: 15-13-3, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 93-98-8

Rest of the Plays
San Antonio Spurs + OKC OVER 208.5
 

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Soccer Crusher
Figueirense + Goias OVER 2
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 579-21, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 579-483-84
 

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, MAY 25th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________



***** Sunday, 5/25/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #8
•Carlos Gonzalez To Return To Rockies’ Lineup On Sunday: Carlos Gonzalez says he will be back in the Rockies’ starting lineup on Sunday, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. The outfielder has been out since Wednesday due to inflammation in his left index finger. Gonzalez says that while his finger feels better, it is not completely healed. Hand problems are not new to Gonzalez, as he suffered from a sprained middle finger last year and a contusion on his index finger earlier this month, but both were on his right hand. His current issue is on his left hand. Gonzalez, 28, has put up decent numbers thus far, slashing .276/.321/.477 with seven home runs and 29 RBI.

•Pitchers Get Batted Around When Cardinals-Reds Meet: If there has been one constant between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals it's that pitchers get beat-up on. In the past 17 games at the Great American Ball Park, the total was topped 12 times. Neither of the starting pitchers have been able to remedy that either. In Adam Wainwrights last nine starts against the Reds, he has an over/under record of 5-2-2. Reds' starter Mike Leake fares no better going over in four of his past five against the Cardinals.

•Verlander Unhittable Against Rangers: Justin Verlander has been dominant against a lot teams in the MLB, but maybe none more so than the Texas Rangers. The Tigers are 9-4 in Verlander's last 13 starts against the Rangers. The dominance gets even better at Comerica Park where the Tigers are 7-1 in Verlander's last eight starts against the Rangers. Bettors have also been able to bank on the under too, as the Tigers and Rangers have gone under in five of their past six in Detroit when Verlander starts.

•Nelson To Get Second Career Start In Replace Of Gallardo: The Milwaukee Brewers are sending top prospect Jimmy Nelson to the mound against the Miami Marlins Sunday. Nelson is getting the start for injured Yavani Gallardo who was pulled prematurely in his last start. Nelson has only one previous start in the majors and that was last season against the New York Mets. In that start Nelson went 5.0 innings giving up one hit while walking three batters and striking out four. In Nelson's none starts in the minors he has a 1.71 ERA with a 58/17 K/BB ratio.

•St. Louis Cardinals Could Seek Trade For Starting Pitching: The St. Louis Cardinals have weathered the early storm in 2014. With a couple winning spurts to overcome a slow start to the season, the team is now 26-22 and just 2.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. With that the Cardinals can return to the familiar territory of playoff contenders. It is from that spot that they can evaluate their roster and look to possibly make a move to improve their chances at a World Series run.

As far as potential trades go, could the Cardinals actually be in a position where they need to acquire starting pitching? “With a surplus of coveted outfield prospects and some young power arms who could entice potential trade partners, will Cardinals GM John Mozeliak be able to pull off a big trade to put his team in position to make another run to the National League pennant? The pieces are there. It depends on how Mozeliak views his team.”

With Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha at the top of the rotation, the Cardinals might actually be in line for an upgrade in the other starting spots. That is the view of one scout with whom StatSystems Sports Systems Analyst James Vogel spoke: “If the Cardinals go for for a big move, they’ll try to acquire a formidable starting pitcher so they can go into a postseason series lined up with Adam Wainwight, Michael Wacha and the elite-level Pitcher to be Acquired Later.”

The moving pieces for such a trade would likely be outfielder and top prospect Oscar Tavares and right-handed pitcher Carlos Martinez. What the Cardinals do as far as calling up Tavares could set up a series of moves if they trade an outfielder. Martinez has struggled thus far but many thought he belonged in the rotation. If he improved he could either slide into the rotation or be an enticing trade piece. To make big-season trades requires both that a team have the assets to trade and that they have the willingness to make an aggressive move. If the Cardinals fit that description, they will be in position to make a big move later this summer.

Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Arroyo is 3-1, 2.08 in his last four starts.
-- Beckett is 2-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Teheran is 2-2, 1.75 in his last seven starts.
-- Fister is 1-0, 1.93 in his last two starts.
-- Hammel is 3-1, 2.84 in his last six starts.
-- Wainwright is 6-1, 1.98 in his last eight starts. Leake is 0-1, 1.82 in his last four starts.

-- Pomeranz is 3-0, 0.00 (15 IP) in three starts. Happ is 3-1, 4.42 in his four.
-- Gonzalez is 1-0, 2.77 in his last two starts. Bauer is 1-1, 3.00 in his two.
-- Odorizzi is 1-1, 1.72 in his last three starts.
-- Tanaka is 3-1, 2.86 in his last four starts. White Sox are 6-0 when Rienzo starts (4-0, 4.37).
-- Richards is 2-1, 2.93 in his last six starts. Vargas is 1-0, 2.00 in his four road starts.
-- Keuchel is 3-0, 1.42 in his last three starts. Iwakuma is 3-0, 1.76 in his four.

-- Bumgarner is 3-0, 3.24 in his last four starts.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Nelson was 5-1, 1.71 in nine AAA starts; he allowed one run in 10 IP LY in majors, making one start. Wolf is making first start since 2012, when he was on the Brewers; he is 132-117 in 368 big league starts.
-- Spruill was 2-0, 5.18 in five AAA starts, lasting total of only 24.1 IP-- LY, he gave up 11 runs in 11.2 IP in majors, starting twice. Matsuzaka is making first '14 start; he's allowed seven runs in 21 IP in relief. He is 54-40, 4.45 in 123 big league starts. Montero is 0-2, 6.97 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Burnett is 1-2, 7.31 in his last three starts.
-- Liriano is 0-1, 6.86 in his last four starts.
-- Morales is 0-2, 7.36 in his last four starts.
-- Kennedy is 0-3, 4.74 in his last four starts.

-- Verlander is 1-2, 5.68 in his last three starts. Lewis is 1-2, 7.05 in his last three starts.
-- Workman was 3-1, 5.12 in seven AAA starts this year; he was 6-3, 4.97 LY in majors, pitching 41.2 IP in 20 games, with three starts.

-- Nolasco is 0-2, 4.15 in his last four starts.

•Totals
-- Eight of last ten Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Dodger games.
-- Ten of last fourteen Miami games went over the total.
-- Ten of last twelve Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Six of last nine Cincinnati home games stayed under.
-- Under is 15-4-2 in last 21 Atlanta home games.
-- Seven of last eight Cub games stayed under the total.

-- Eight of last twelve Texas games stayed under.
-- Over is 12-6-1 in last nineteen Toronto home games.
-- Over is 13-1-2 in last sixteen Cleveland games.
-- Four of last five Boston games went over the total.
-- Eight of last 12 White Sox games went over. Nine of last ten Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-2-2 in last eight Angel games.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Houston road games.

-- Five of last seven Bumgarner starts stayed under the total.

•Hot Teams
-- Pirates won eight of their last ten home games.
-- Marlins won 14 of its last 17 home games.
-- Cardinals won eight of their last ten games. Cincinnati is 9-2 in game after its last eleven losses.
-- Braves won seven of their last ten home games.
-- Cubs won five of their last seven games.

-- Blue Jays won eight of their last nine games.
-- Indians won five of their last six games.
-- Rays won its last three games, all on walk-offs.
-- Rangers won their last four games.
-- White Sox won four of their last six games.
-- Angels won five of their last seven games. Kansas City is 7-5 in their last dozen road games.
-- Mariners won four of its last six games.

-- Giants won 11 of their last 15 home games.

•Cold Teams
-- Nationals are 7-13 in its last 20 games.
-- Dodgers are 6-8 in their last fourteen road games. Philadelphia lost seven of their last eleven games overall.
-- Mets lost seven of their last nine games. Arizona lost five of its last eight.
-- Brewers lost nine of their last thirteen road games
-- Rockies lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Padres lost six of their last eight games.

-- Athletics lost its last three games.
-- Tigers lost five of its last six games.
-- Red Sox lost nine in row, 10 of their last 11 games.
-- Orioles lost nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Yankees lost four of their last six games.
-- Astros lost ten of their last fourteen road games.

-- Twins are 4-6 in its last ten road games.

•Umpires Trends
-- LA-Phil-- Underdogs won five of last eight Knight games.
-- Col-Atl-- Last three Ripperger games went over total.
-- Mil-Mia-- Nine of ten Eddings games stayed under total.
-- Az-NY-- Four of last five BWelke games stayed under.
-- StL-Cin-- Three of last four Hamari games stayed under.
-- Wsh-Pitt-- Underdogs won last five Timmons games.
-- Chi-SD-- Home side won eight of nine Davis games.

-- A's-Tor-- Six of last seven Carlson games went over total.
-- NY-Chi-- Five of last six Bellino games stayed under.
-- Tex-Det-- Rookie ump Gosney is working first game behind plate.
-- Bos-TB-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Hernandez games.
-- Cle-Balt-- Underdogs won five of last six Foster games.
-- KC-LA-- Underdogs won four of last six Muchlinski games.
-- Hst-Sea-- Favorites won six of eight Hallion games.

-- Min-SF-- Six of nine Emmel games stayed under the total.

Diamond Trends - Sunday
•LA ANGELS are 15-2 (+14.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 5.9, OPPONENT 3.2.

•KANSAS CITY is 51-26 UNDER (+20.8 Units) versus an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.4, OPPONENT 3.8.

•CINCINNATI is 12-1 (+15.0 Units) against the run line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.3, OPPONENT 3.1.

•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 5-15 (-21.5 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 3.7, OPPONENT 4.8.

•A.J. BURNETT is 32-13 UNDER (+17.8 Units) in home games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BURNETT 3.8, OPPONENT 3.2.

•ADAM WAINWRIGHT is 0-8 (-9.2 Units) against the run line in road games after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WAINWRIGHT 3.5, OPPONENT 4.5.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (American League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
(58-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.6%, +41.1 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -187.8
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +2.7)

The situation's record this season is: (4-2, -0.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-6, +15.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (125-50, +32.9 units).

•Play Against - All teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135) (OAKLAND) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA >=5.00), cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games.
(49-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.7%, +33.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (37-23 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.3, money line price: -139
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 4.3 (Average run differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 36 (60% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (7-1, +5.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3, +15 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (155-98, +5.7 units).

•Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 or less (HOUSTON) - very bad American League offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(38-11 since 1997.) (77.6%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 6.8, Money Line=-112.7
The average score in these games was: Team 2.6, Opponent 3.3 (Total runs scored = 5.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 31 (63.3% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-5, +19.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (37-11, +24.6 units).
___________________________________________
 
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BigBetTiger

MLB [952] TOTAL UNDER 8+114 (MIL BREWERS vrs MIA MARLINS)

MLB [960] TOTAL UNDER 6½-105 (CHI CUBS vrs SDG PADRES
 

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