STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/25/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 5/25/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Playoff Journal (May 24)
Our last update was prior to Game #2 of the Oklahoma City/San Antonio series. The Thunder entered that game knowing they were undermanned without Ibaka but talked as if they were undaunted and undeterred. Oklahoma City led 26-24 after the first quarter and was up 36-33 in the second when the Spurs blitzed them with a 43-14 run spanning the second and third quarters! San Antonio would win the second quarter 34-18 and the third 33-18, on the way to a second consecutive dominating victory, 112-77!
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook each only had 15 points, shooting a combined 13 of 40 from the floor (32.5%), including 1 of 9 on threes. OKC's remaining three starters were again BRUTAL, combining for four points (2 of 9 shooting), while the Thunder connected on only TWO of 20 three-pointers as a team. The 77 points tied the Thunder's fewest-ever in a playoff game since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City in 2008 (also scored 77 points in 2012 vs. the Lakers).
San Antonio's starting guards, Tony Parker (22) and Danny Green (21) led the way, as Green made SEVEN, three-pointers. Big men Tim Duncan (14 & 12) and Tiago Splitter (9 & 10) had solid games while Kawhi Leonard, who has had a terrific postseason, was able to have a rare quiet game (played just 16 minutes, scoring four points), with no damage. The Spurs are now 7-1 straight-up and versus the number since their Game #7 blowout of the Mavericks, winning those seven games by an average margin of 21.9 PPG.
Thursday and Friday were days off in both series, with Game #3s in each series being played Saturday and Sunday, respectively. Home teams are now 41-35 SU (.539) this postseason but just 30-43-3 ATS, which is 41.1% and a whopping minus-17.3 net games! After both Game #1s of the conference finals went over, both Game #2s stayed under. However, over bettors are still "sitting pretty," with 44 overs and just 32 unders after 76 games (57.9% win rate favoring the over). "Zig-Zaggers" are 1-1 in the conference finals and remain profitable, at 33-26-3 ATS (plus-4.4 net games).
The Pacers and Heat resume play Saturday at 8:30 PM EST on ESPN, with the series tied at one-all. The home team had won NINE consecutive meetings in this rivalry (including 13 of the last 15) heading into Game #2 but the Pacers shot just 40.0% as a team and scored only 83 points, 24 fewer than in their Game #1 win, when they shot 51.5%. Lance Stephenson was superb (25-6-7) but Paul George and David West combined to shoot a miserable 9 of 32 from the floor (28.1%), totaling only 24 points. George in particular had a poor game (after getting 24 by himself in Game #1), missing 10 of 11 first-half shots. Roy Hibbert played well (13 & 13) but it was not nearly enough.
The Heat were the NBA's best shooting team during the regular season (50.1%) and while they shot 51.3% in Game #1, they fell 11 points short. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade combined for 52 points on 63.9% shooting in Game #1 and while their production dropped slightly in Game #2 (45 points), they again shot efficiently (55.9% for LBJ and Wade, 50.7% for the team as a whole). However, defense was the key for Miami, as it held Indiana to nine points over a 10-minute stretch in the first half and closed it out by allowing just 10 points over the final 7:19 of the game.
The series' next two games are in Miami and the Pacers announced Friday night that George has been cleared "to return to normal basketball activity," a decision made three days after he was concussed in Game #2. "Barring any unforeseen complications, he will play" on Saturday evening in South Beach, the Pacers said. That's one lineup issue settled.
The Heat also have a lineup decision to make. Greg Oden, whose last postseason appearance was April 30, 2009, may be inserted into the Heat rotation after showing Miami's coaches in recent days that back issues that slowed him down for weeks may finally be a thing of the past. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra suggested that Oden "could" get some minutes, which would almost certainly come against Indiana center Roy Hibbert. "If coach needs me, I'm ready to play," Oden said. "I'm definitely ready whenever he needs me."
Miami is 5-0 at home in the postseason, winning by an average of 10.0 PPG, while shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor. Going back to last season, the Heat have won EIGHT straight playoff games in their own building and since LBJ joined the club they're 35-7 straight-up (83.3%) at home during the postseason. However, among those seven losses since the arrival of LeBron James, TWO are Indiana wins in both 2012 and 2013. "Both teams can win on each other's floor. We've proven that the last couple years," James said.
"We have to protect our home, but we can't go out there saying that just because we're back home we get automatic wins. We've got to play." Let's also add the fact that the Pacers have won FIVE straight road playoff games (they are 5-1 on the road this postseason compared to just 4-5 at home) but then again, winning in Atlanta and Washington is one thing, while winning in Miami is quite another matter.
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Western Conference Finals
#511 SAN ANTONIO @ #512 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, TNT - Line: Thunder -2, Total: 208.5) - San Antonio dominated the first two games of the Western Conference finals and Oklahoma City strives to record a breakthrough victory when the Thunder host the Spurs on Sunday night. San Antonio won two home games by an average of 26 points, including a 35-point victory in Game #2 that left the Thunder shell-shocked. Oklahoma City also dug itself a 0-2 hole in the 2012 conference finals against the Spurs before rallying to win the next four games.
The Thunder have upgraded power forward Serge Ibaka (calf) from out to day-to-day and general manager Sam Presti cautioned that the announcement doesn’t mean Ibaka is playing in Game #3. “I think it’s important, when you look at this, to recognize that we’re not saying that he’s playing but what we’re really trying to indicate is that the information is telling us that we can’t rule him out,” Presti told reporters on Friday. San Antonio has thrived in the interior with 120 points in the paint over the first two games and has also made nine 3-pointers in each contest.
•ABOUT THE SPURS (72-24 SU, 52-44-0 ATS): The veteran club isn’t willing to rest on its laurels despite the consecutive routs. Power forward Tim Duncan and guard Manu Ginobili both referenced the collapse of two years ago in their respective sessions with reporters on Friday. “We cannot take anything for granted,” Ginobili said. “We had a great start and ended up losing the series. We are playing a team that is so talented and has so many way of scoring – it is never over until you win the fourth game. We know that and most of us were on that team.”
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (67-30 SU, 50-44-3 ATS): Earlier this week, Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks made it clear Ibaka wasn’t going to return during the series but the situation quickly changed with the Thunder landing in a dire situation. Oklahoma City went 4-0 against the Spurs in the regular season but has been caught in a severe mismatch against Duncan without Ibaka’s presence. “He’s still out,” Brooks told reporters. “We’re still focusing on trying to beat the Spurs without him playing, and that has not changed. I know he’s listed as day-to-day but, still, he is out until I’m told differently. All of our attentions and game planning is to focus on ways to play much better than we did last game.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Spurs PG Tony Parker has displayed no signs of his recent hamstring injury, shooting 55.2 percent from the field while averaging 18 points and 8.5 assists.... Oklahoma City stars Kevin Durant (21.5 points, six rebounds) and Russell Westbrook (20 points, six assists) are shooting a combined 40 percent from the field.... San Antonio SG Danny Green has made 11-of-15 3-pointers – including seven in Game 2 -- while averaging 18.5 points over the first two games.... The Thunder are 16-5 versus the spread (76.1%) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Spurs are 20-9 against the spread (68.9%) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 598 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 377 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 545 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY won 431 times. In 1000 simulated games, 546 games went under the total, while 454 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 578 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 390 times. *EDGE against first half line =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, 526 games went under first half total, while 440 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 43-41 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 51-35 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--42 of 81 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 44-41 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--43 of 83 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Spurs are 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
--Spurs are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games.
--Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Thunder are 14-3 ATS L17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
--Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 5-0 in Thunder L5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Any team where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, revenging a road blowout loss versus opponent of 30 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more.
(25-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (26-5 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.5
The average score in these games was: Team 106.5, Opponent 96.9 (Average point differential = +9.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (54.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-6).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (56-48).
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