Service Plays Sunday 3/30/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA East Regional betting news and notes: Sparty must stop Shabazz
By BRIAN COVERT

(No. 4) Michigan State Spartans vs. (No. 7) Connecticut Huskies (+5.5, 139)

Does Connecticut have what it takes to keep Michigan States' big men from dominating the glass? It may not matter if the Huskies continue to shoot the ball as well as they have. Through the tournament’s first three games they are shooting at a 47 percent clip, a mind-blowing 46 percent from behind the 3-point arc (accounting for 35 percent of their points), and 85 percent from the charity stripe. To put those numbers in perspective, Creighton led the nation in 3-point percentage during the season converting at a 41.5 percent rate while Providence was the best free-throw shooting team in the tourney shooting 78.2 percent from the line.

Can the Spartans stop Shabazz Napier? The Connecticut guard has either scored or assisted on 35 points per game through the tourney’s first three games. For their part Michigan State’s opponent's backcourts have enjoyed some success this tourney with Virginia and Harvard’s starting guards scoring 41 and 39 respectively (although both teams did play with three guard sets). As for Napier and Michigan St., there is some precedent. At the start of last season, Napier scored 25, leading the Huskies to a 66-62 win in Kevin Ollie’s first game as head coach. “We are too fast, we are a transition team and when we get going, no one can keep up with us," said Napier after the game. "We just tried to do what they did, transition. We got some easy rebounds, they came off the boards and we let them go."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Midwest Regional betting news and notes: Wolverines dialed in from downtown
By CHASE RUTTIG

(No. 2) Michigan Wolverines vs (No. 8) Kentucky Wildcats (-2, 140.5)

The Michigan Wolverines will look to make the Final Four for the second-straight season when they play the No. 8 seeded Kentucky Wildcats in Indianapolis. If they want to earn the win, they will likely need to execute better at inbounding the basketball in the final moments as five consecutive Wolverines turnovers in the final moments in their two point win over Tennessee cost Michigan bettors an ATS win and nearly a spot in the Elite Eight as they needed a charge taken by senior Jordan Morgan to escape a potential collapse after leading by 15 points in the second half.

The Wolverines, who are 2-point underdogs as the high seed in the matchup, will be reliant on their three-point shooting once again against Kentucky as they are dialed in from behind the arc. One of the top shooting teams in the nation, Michigan has been even more consistent from downtown in the tournament averaging 48.7 percent three-point shooting including over 50 percent in their past two wins against Texas and Tennessee. If that trend continues, the Wolverines should be tougher to knock off than the oddsmakers are suggesting.

Kentucky shocked the world in making the Elite Eight following a gauntlet of tough draws against undefeated Wichita State before beating Louisville on Friday after the Cardinals won 14 of their last 15 games, handing Rick Pitino his first Sweet 16 loss in his storied head coaching career.

The Wildcats will be the third straight Top 25 rebounding team to face the undersized Wolverines in the tournament and will be hoping that they can make more of an impact like the Longhorns did in the second round when they held a +13 rebounding margin over Michigan. Kentucky isn't far off from the Longhorns season rebounding average with both teams nearly grabbing 41 rebounds per contest. Holding a rebounding edge over the 308th ranked Wolverines hasn't led to a victory yet, but it appears the oddsmakers think that Sunday might be the matchup where Michigan's rebounding woes finally catch up to them.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Game Inside the Game: About Willie Cauley-Stein
By DAVID MALINSKY

And now on to the Sunday Elite Eight, as we search for some of the key matchup issues on the court that will most translate to the final score, searching for the “Game Inside The Game”.

Connecticut vs. Michigan State: From Friday’s Buzzer till Tipoff

Scoreboards remain blank until the games begin. But the processes that create the scoreboard measurements are continuously in play. This game began a few minutes after Tom Izzo and his Spartans walked off the court following that tense win over Virginia on Friday night. And it is the period of time between the setting of this matchup, and the actual tipoff, that may play a key role in determining the outcome.

A savvy handicapper should never take for granted what these tourney settings mean. Each coach gets one day to prepare for what is usually a non-conference opponent, and often one that they lack any experience against. Naturally how well that time is utilized significantly matters once the game starts. That makes the experience comparison between Izzo and Kevin Ollie a key piece to this puzzle.

This will be the 23rd time that Izzo has coached a tourney game with one day to prepare, and he is 19-3 SU and 14-7-1 ATS in the role. This will be the eighth time he has had to do this in the Elite Eight, where the tally is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. He knows the drill. Meanwhile Ollie has a chance to be a shining star in the coaching fraternity (if he makes his career at UConn he could challenge the 625 wins Jim Calhoun had at the school), but this is only his second tourney game with one day to prep, and obviously first at the Elite Eight. And while the Huskies were impressive in handling Villanova last weekend in a quick turn-around, that setting was a little different – having been conference mates prior to this season, there was already a familiarity with Jay Wright and the Wildcats.

Kentucky vs. Michigan: About Willie Cauley-Stein

The first reports are that Willie Cauley-Stein will likely be a no-go for Kentucky on Sunday, with John Calipari being blunt in his post-game press conference – “It’s not a good ankle injury, let me just put it that way.” Yet the early betting markets showed little concern, with the Wildcats being raised from an opener of pick’em to -2 in a matter of moments.

Perhaps that should not be a surprise – Cauley-Stein only started 18 of 37 games, and 6.8 ppg and 6.1 rpg can seemingly be replaced by the talent on hand. They beat Louisville despite him only being on the court for four minutes. No problem, right?

Let’s take a closer look. While Kentucky is loaded with NBA size, Cauley-Stein is the only real shot blocker. His ratio of 106 blocks in 880 floor minutes this season is terrific, and contrast that to all other Wildcats only having 118 blocks in 6,595 minutes. He had almost half of the team’s blocked shots, despite only averaging 23.8 minutes per game. So how did they replace that presence vs. the Cardinals? They didn’t, actually – Louisville made 20-33 two-point shot attempts when Cauley-Stein was not on the floor. Usually that level of efficiency will win a game. Instead it was the flow he would not have impacted as much that made the difference - the Cardinals were only 4-15 from three-point range, and 13-23 at the FT line.

Rick Pitino knew the basket was much easier to get to without Cauley-Stein’s presence – only 28.3 percent of the Louisville shots were beyond the arc, quite a contrast to their 35.2 percent ratio in all other games. Did he recognize something that the early betting markets have not? It needs to be part of your Sunday handicapping process, and note that despite the reputation Michigan brings for being so explosive on the perimeter, the Wolverines made 52.7 percent of their two-point attempts despite facing the nation’s toughest schedule.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Elite Eight prop bets: Napier's high total
By JUSTIN HARTLING

Shabazz Napier has been lighting up March Madness for the Huskies. Through the first three games of the tournament, Napier has averaged 22.7 ppg on just under 35 minutes of floor time. Entering Sunday's action, Napier is getting the highest total point O/U of any player with 18.0.

Here are all your prop bets for Sunday's Elite Eight action (Odds courtesy of LVH Superbooks):

UCONN VS MICHIGAN ST


TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 14.0 -110
UNDER 14.0 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110

TEAM TO SCORE 10 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
U CONN +120
MICHIGAN ST -140

TEAM TO SCORE 20 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
U CONN +145
MICHIGAN ST -165


TOTAL POINTS BY: SHABAZZ NAPIER (UCONN)
OVER 18.0 -110
UNDER 18.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: DEANDRE DANIELS (UCONN)
OVER 13.0 -110
UNDER 13.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: ADREIAN PAYNE (MICHIGAN ST)
OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: GARY HARRIS (MICHIGAN ST)
OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110


KENTUCKY VS MICHIGAN


TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

TEAM TO SCORE 10 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
KENTUCKY -115
MICHIGAN -105

TEAM TO SCORE 20 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
KENTUCKY -120
MICHIGAN EVEN

TOTAL POINTS BY: JULIUS RANDLE (KENTUCKY)
OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: AARON HARRISON (KENTUCKY)
OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: NIK STAUSKAS (MICHIGAN)
OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: CARIS LEVERT (MICHIGAN)
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

East Regional final betting preview: Connecticut vs. Michigan State
By COVERS

Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan State Spartans (-5.5, 139.5)

Each one of coach Tom Izzo’s senior classes has made at least one Final Four in his 19 seasons at Michigan State, which will get put to the test Sunday when the Spartans face No. 7 seed Connecticut in the East regional finals in New York. Fourth-seeded Michigan State knocked off top-seeded Virginia in a physical 61-59 victory Friday, breaking their three-year dry spell of getting past the Sweet 16. Michigan State advanced to the Elite Eight for the eighth time since 1999.

While the Spartans got only their third win in 13 tries at Madison Square Garden, the Huskies used the stage to avenge a loss to an Iowa State team that knocked them out of the Big Dance two years ago. "It felt like a home game. We just feel like Madison Square Garden is kind of our third home; Gampel (Pavilion) being the first and XL (Center) being the second,” leading scorer Shabazz Napier told the Hartford Courant. Connecticut doesn’t need any more help based on its recent success in the NCAA tournament, improving to 35-8 in its last 12 appearances after defeating the Cyclones 81-76.

TV: 2:20 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: The Spartans opened as 6-point faves but that has been bet down to -5.5. The total opened 139.5.

INJURY REPORT: Connecticut - Pet Lenehan, G (Questionable, Undisclosed)

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "UConn has got hot at precisely the right time with Shabazz Napier stirring memories of Kemba Walker. With that being said, beating Iowa State and getting past Michigan State are two much different animals. I do feel the line has been shaded a little heavier than it should in Sparty's direction. I'm not ready to call for the outright upset but lean to the Huskies plus the points." Covers Experts Sean Murphy.

WHY BET CONNECTICUT (29-8 SU, 20-15 ATS, 13-21 O/U): Many have considered DeAndre Daniels an X-factor all season and he proved up to the task Friday, hitting 10 of his final 13 field-goal attempts en route to a 27-point, 10-rebound performance. "I called him an animal. When he gets in that mode, that's what he is; he's an animal and you've got to keep feeding him,” Napier told the Courant. Although the Huskies surrendered a career-high 34 points to Dustin Hogue, they limited All-Big 12 first-teamers DeAndre Kane and Melvin Ejim to a combined 23 points on 9-of-31 shooting from the field.

WHY BET MICHIGAN STATE (29-8 SU, 20-13-3 ATS, 19-17-3 O/U): The Spartans’ own X-factor, Branden Dawson, continued his dominant play in the NCAA tournament against the Cavaliers with 24 points and 10 rebounds – giving him 50 points and 19 boards over his last two games. “Dawson makes all the difference; he did (Friday). He was a matchup problem for us,” Virginia coach Tony Bennett told reporters. Gary Harris on Friday became the 45th player in school history to score at least 1,000 career points, but only the fourth to do so in his first two seasons.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Spartans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 4-1 in Huskies last five non-conference games.
* Under is 5-2 in Spartans last seven NCAA Tournament games.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of wagers are on the Huskies.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Midwest Regional final betting preview: Kentucky vs. Michigan

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines (+2, 138.5)

Michigan is one win away from its second straight Final Four, while Kentucky is hoping to return for the third time in the last four seasons when the teams face off Sunday in Indianapolis. Both teams won thrillers on Friday, starting with the second-ranked Wolverines edging Tennessee 73-71 led by Jordan Morgan, who registered team highs of 15 points and seven rebounds and took a key charge in the final seconds. Michigan appeared as if it would face Louisville in a rematch of the 2013 national title game before the Cardinals were stunned by the eighth-seeded Wildcats, who received a go-ahead 3-pointer from Aaron Harrison in the final minute.

"They finally have surrendered and lost themselves in the team. It's just taken a long time," said Kentucky coach John Calipari, whose team was ranked No. 1 in the preseason before dropping out of the top 25 entirely late in the year. Michigan has been a stalwart near the top of the rankings all year, and the team has won 10 of 11 games heading into this matchup. "Guys are happy we're happy moving on and going to the next round and we're just excited to have the opportunity to go to the Final Four," commented Big Ten Player of the Year Nik Stauskas after contributing 14 points in Friday's victory.

LINE HISTORY: Kentucky opened as a 2-point favorite with a total of 138.5.

INJURY REPORT: Kentucky, Willie Cauley-Stein F - Doubtful, Ankle. Michigan, Cole McConnell G, Questionable, Foot. Michigan, F Mitch McGary F Out, Back.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Perhaps we should have seen Kentucky's upset-minded run coming. This is a young team that was brimming with potential all season and now we're seeing them put it all together. I'm just not sure the Cats can avoid a letdown off the big win over rival Louisville. If you like the Wolverines, I think you're looking at a very reasonable line. Michigan certainly has the look of a Final Four team right now and Friday's test against Tennessee should serve it well on Sunday." Covers Experts' Sean Murphy.

WHAT BOOKS ARE SAYING: "Going to be a big decision on the Kentucky vs Michigan game. Wildcats have covered 6 in a row & and they are getting 70 percent of cash & 73 percent of bets." Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com

WHY BET KENTUCKY (27-10 SU, 18-15-2 ATS, 14-19-2 O/U): The Wildcats, who are aiming to become just the second No. 8 seed to reach the Final Four since 2001, boast a starting lineup that features five freshmen, headlined by Julius Randle, who has opened the NCAA tournament with three straight double-doubles. Harrison is shooting 9-of-15 from 3-point range over his last three games while fellow freshman Dakari Johnson hopes to build off his career high-tying 15 points against the Cardinals. One negative for Kentucky is the status of sophomore center Willie Cauley-Stein, the team's top rim protector, who left early in Friday's game with an ankle injury that prompted Calipari to say, "It's not a good ankle injury. Let me just put it that way."

WHY BET MICHIGAN (28-8 SU, 18-14-2 ATS, 20-13-2 O/U): The Wolverines flashed some impressive shooting numbers against the Volunteers - 55.1 percent from the field, 11-of-20 from the 3-point line and 8-of-10 from the free-throw stripe. Stauskas (17.3 points) has been Michigan's primary star this season and enters this contest shooting 17-of-36 from outside the arc over his last five games. Freshman swingman Zak Irvin continues to provide a nice spark off the bench, going 3-of-3 from 3-point range against Tennessee - the fourth time in five games that he has made multiple 3s off the bench.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Wolverines are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 9-2 in Wildcats last 11 Sunday games.
* Over is 6-2 in Wolverines last eight overall.

CONSENSUS: 52 percent of wagers are on the Wolverines.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PhillyGodFather

Kentucky PK

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GOODFELLA


2014 MLB Team Win Totals (19-9 L/4 Years)


2* TORONTO BLUE JAYS – UNDER 80.5


2* CLEVELAND INDIANS – OVER 80.5


2* SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS – UNDER 87


2* CINCINNATI REDS – UNDER 84.5


2* ST. LOUIS CARDINALS – OVER 91.5


2* WASHINGTON NATIONALS – OVER 89.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns NHL

Burns' NHL Personal Favorite!

BetOnline @ -142 Ottawa

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRYAN LEONARD

2014 National League Season Wins

3 Units – Cubs – Over 70 +100

2 Units – Rockies – Over 76 1/2 +100

2 Units – Mets – Over 74 -120

3 Units – Phillies – Under 76 -120

2 Units – Pirates – Under 84 -110

2 Units – Giants – Under 86 1/2 -110

2 Units – Nationals – Over 90 -110

While I played each of these at better numbers they all have value in my opinion at the numbers stated. If you have to lay more than 15 cents on any of these numbers lower the unit rating by one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

UConn +5.5
Kentucky -2

 

[Wellngood76]

Cpaw- read on the board that you've been dealing with some difficulties. I wish u the best and hope it all works out well. not much one can do via the internet but please dont hesitate in asking. Happy to help/support if possible.

ZSK

 

[Wellngood76]

Stevens VIP LV
3-2-1 (since Thursday, 3/27)

not sure how much longer ill keep obtaining the service. Just listened to a 5 minute F-U message cuz i didnt want to pay 50% commission on his tournament total of the year on AZ under.

MSU
Mich

expects the michigan line to settle at them being the favorite. He's offering his baseball free but need clarification on the duration as i wont continue that service

 

[AirTroop]

2Halves2Win early NBA play:

1.5* GAME: Jazz +15.5 (-110: Risking 1.65 units to win 1.50 units) - TBD (TBDu)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cpaw- read on the board that you've been dealing with some difficulties. I wish u the best and hope it all works out well. not much one can do via the internet but please dont hesitate in asking. Happy to help/support if possible.

ZSK

Thanks Wellngood, I appreciate it. The time off helped me deal with it a little. JD and the contributors like yourself did a great job while I was away so thank you all.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Oklahoma City won five of its last six games.
-- Cavaliers won three of their last four games.
-- Brooklyn won eight of its last eleven games. Minnesota won its last two games, by 24-36 points.
-- Raptors won three of their last four games. Orlando won its last two games, after losing previous nine.
-- Warriors won four of last five games, covered two of last seven.
-- Grizzlies won five of their last seven games. Portland won seven of its last nine home games.
--- Suns won their last six games (5-1 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Jazz lost 14 of their last 16 games.
-- Pacers lost three of their last four games.
-- Boston lost eight of last nine games, covered four of last six. Bulls covered once in their last seven games.
-- New York lost three of its last four games.
-- Lakers lost six of their last eight games.

Series records
-- Thunder won nine of last twelve games with Utah (8-3-1 spread).
-- Pacers won their last eight games with Cleveland.
-- Timberwolves won seven of last nine games with Brooklyn.
-- Raptors won their last six games with Orlando.
-- Bulls won eight of their last eleven games with Boston.
-- Knicks lost seven of last nine games with Golden State.
-- Grizzlies won their last five games with Portland.
-- Lakers lost seven of last nine games with Phoenix.

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Jazz-hunder games stayed under.
-- Last seven Indiana games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Brooklyn games, five of last six Minnesota games went over.
-- Six of last eight Toronto games went over total; five of last six Magic games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Chicago games stayed under total.
-- Seven of its last ten New York games went over total.
-- Seven of last nine Memphis games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Phoenix games stayed under total

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Bruins won 14 of their last 15 games. Philly won six of its last eight.
-- Calgary won three of its last four games.
-- Lightning won seven of their last nine games.
-- Rangers won five of their last six games.


Cold teams
-- Senators lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Red Wings lost three of their last four games.
-- Pittsburgh lost six of last nine games. Blackhawks lost three of their last four.
-- Predators lost five of last eight games. Washington lost three of its last four.
-- Edmonton lost three of its last four games.

Totals
-- Over is 21-11-3 in Boston home games.
-- Seven of last ten Ottawa games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Tampa Bay games went over.
-- Eight of last ten Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Washington road games stayed under total; four of last five Nashville games went over.
-- Four of last five Edmonton games went over the total.

Series records
-- Bruins won ten of last thirteen games with Philadelphia.
-- Flames won three of last five games with Ottawa.
-- Lightning is 4-0 vs Detroit this year, allowing five goals.
-- Blackhawks won three of last four games with Pittsburgh.
-- Predators lost six of last seven games with Washington.
-- Rangers lost last two games with Edmonton, 2-0/2-1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeffrey James (YouWinNow)

CBB Play of the Day - #720 Michigan Wolverines +1.5

#720 Michigan Wolverines +1.5 (5:00 edt) CBS

I know Kentucky has looked very impressive but this is the perfect time for them to have a let down. They really stole their last game against arch-rival Louisville and a team this young will still be on a high off of that game so look for Michigan to be able get off to a good start here. Michigan is a very talented team in their own right but nobody will be talking about them. Look for Michigan to get the lead and stay with it all the way through to advance to their 2nd consecutive Final Four.