VR’s Morning Moves - Sunday, March 28, 2010
Report Status: SUNDAY MARCH 28th, 2010
Next Report: BY 1:00pm est on MON 3-29-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for SUNDAY MARCH 28th, 2010
HANDICAPPING : “ELITE 8 DAY 1.…RECAP”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…Well we only lost 1 bet on Saturday, but it was our “Morning Moves” 2*…So we are now “9-4” over our L/13 Bets…
We did SWEEP our CBB Card…AGAIN…And have now won “7” straight CBB Bets…Plus “5” straight BOMBS…Today, we unload our Biggest Bet of the run…
My ELITE 8 CBB 4* GAME OF THE MONTH…To go along with all of Sunday’s Action…
So we have plenty to get done early today…so let’s jump right into a recap of what we saw Saturday…
The Bottom Line…”MOMENTUM”…Exactly what we touched on for yesterday’s Newsletter…
Because BOTH, Butler and West Virginia had plenty of “Momentum” going into yesterday’s games…And we saw how they were BOTH able to come out of the gate playing well…And staying hot from the 3pt line…Especially since they only played less than 48hrs before Saturday’s game…
We also saw how having a “deeper” bench can play a major role….since these teams did just plat less than 48hrs ago…And in the case of Kansas St., who had also played “2” OT’s in their Sweet 16 match-up…we saw how slowly they came out of the gate in their next game…And also how exhausted they looked down the stretch…
Because even though they were able to come back and take a 1pt lead with only minutes remaining…You could just tell that Butler was in complete control and that Kansas St looked so drained…
In the 2nd game…we saw just how much “Hot Shooting” means in this Tourney…Because as good of a team as Kentucky is…You just can’t win too many games when you shoot like that from the 3pt line in CBB…And even though they dominated the paint…West Virginia was able to carry that stroke over from their Sweet 16 win…and shoot the ball well enough to keep Kentucky more or less…always playing from behind…Something that they didn’t get accustomed to during the Regular Season…
We also need to consider how the market reacted to all of the money coming in…
Even though the betting public was very heavy on the Favorites…we didn’t see the line reflect that because the Wiseguys, who had tried to get ahead of the market by betting BOTH favorites when the lines first went up…came right back hours before tip-off…after allowing the public to drive those favs as high as possible…and UNLOADED on BOTH of the Dogs…
And I mean EVERY Outfit was taking a huge position on BOTH of the Dogs…Forcing the sharper books to adjust the line even though they were heavy on the favorite…
That was an obvious sign that they felt the line was giving the Favs the “best of it”…So rather than keep it where it is to attract even more Wiseguy Money and possibly get the money balanced…they opted to adjust quickly to try and stop others from getting down on the Dog…Ultimately taking a position themselves….
So overall, when the dust settled…the books ended up cleaning up again…Because even though they paid off the Wiseguys…they were still extremely one-sided on BOTH of the favorites due to the public…And that was another perfect example of why the Betting Syndicates are always able to come out ahead in the long run…
Because the books are willing to allow them to get the best of it…when the betting volume is high and the recreational bettors money out-weighs the Wiseguy Money…In fact, it’s these Outfits that the books trust to let them know where the Value lies…And they find comfort in knowing that they will be able to attract more than enough money on the opposite sides for them to also come out ahead…even when the Wiseguys win…
That’s the beauty of our inefficient market…And why it is so beatable, if of course you employ discipline and money management…every step of the way…
Saturday was a perfect example of a perfect day for the books…And it’s not by accident that they always seem to come out ahead…during those times of the year…that the recreational bettors money out-weighs the Wiseguys…And the reason for this is because they are able to get those recreational bettors to take the side that is “getting the worst of it”…
Knowing, that just like for us pros…if they can do that enough, then they are assured to come out ahead over time…So they don’t mind at all if the odds makers pass along a “soft” number…Because the Betting Syndicates will correct it…Then the books could go out and attract more than enough public money on the other sides to compensate for that reprimand…
Best of Luck and Thanks again for your continued support…Let’s close out another Winning Week and Winning Month…by having a kick-ass Sunday…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 701 SACRAMENTO +13.5
This line opened -14...and even as high as -14.5...But the Wiseguys stepped in and let the books know that it was way too high…and STEAMED the Kings right away…That’s why even though the betting public is expected to come in on the Fav…the books still adjusted to reflect the “Steam”…And I don’t think they are finished yet, because I’ve spoken to a handful of runners that believe they will be asked to “steam” the Kings again…Because of that, we should see the books adjust some more as we approach tip-off…VR
Sun, 03/28/10 - 6:05 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 710 DET -2.0 (-110) SportBet vs 709 CHI
Analysis:
** NBA MORNING MOVES 2* TRUE STEAM **
DETROIT -2....(2*)
Make sure that you SHOP this Bet...Because some of the sharper books have already gone to -2.5...
I have to agree with the Wiseguys that DETROIT is the right side here...at the right price...
We are getting to that part of the season where the Oddsmakers are going to force bettors to pay a premium for those teams that are in more or less "Must Win" situations...for making the Playoffs, or even Seeding...
So we can sit back and look for those teams who have the inflated number...and fade them, knowing that we are getting the "best of it"...And in this racket, getting your money down when you are getting the "best of it"...is going to leave you with a nice profit over time...
Chicago has managed to win on 13 road games this season...So away from home, they lose a ton of value...And as bad of a year as Detroit has had...the bottom line is they are only 4 games under .500 at home...So when they play there, you have to account for that extra value...
And that is where I believe we are able to take advantage here today...Let's back the Pistons at home by a basket.
Report Status: SUNDAY MARCH 28th, 2010
Next Report: BY 1:00pm est on MON 3-29-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for SUNDAY MARCH 28th, 2010
HANDICAPPING : “ELITE 8 DAY 1.…RECAP”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…Well we only lost 1 bet on Saturday, but it was our “Morning Moves” 2*…So we are now “9-4” over our L/13 Bets…
We did SWEEP our CBB Card…AGAIN…And have now won “7” straight CBB Bets…Plus “5” straight BOMBS…Today, we unload our Biggest Bet of the run…
My ELITE 8 CBB 4* GAME OF THE MONTH…To go along with all of Sunday’s Action…
So we have plenty to get done early today…so let’s jump right into a recap of what we saw Saturday…
The Bottom Line…”MOMENTUM”…Exactly what we touched on for yesterday’s Newsletter…
Because BOTH, Butler and West Virginia had plenty of “Momentum” going into yesterday’s games…And we saw how they were BOTH able to come out of the gate playing well…And staying hot from the 3pt line…Especially since they only played less than 48hrs before Saturday’s game…
We also saw how having a “deeper” bench can play a major role….since these teams did just plat less than 48hrs ago…And in the case of Kansas St., who had also played “2” OT’s in their Sweet 16 match-up…we saw how slowly they came out of the gate in their next game…And also how exhausted they looked down the stretch…
Because even though they were able to come back and take a 1pt lead with only minutes remaining…You could just tell that Butler was in complete control and that Kansas St looked so drained…
In the 2nd game…we saw just how much “Hot Shooting” means in this Tourney…Because as good of a team as Kentucky is…You just can’t win too many games when you shoot like that from the 3pt line in CBB…And even though they dominated the paint…West Virginia was able to carry that stroke over from their Sweet 16 win…and shoot the ball well enough to keep Kentucky more or less…always playing from behind…Something that they didn’t get accustomed to during the Regular Season…
We also need to consider how the market reacted to all of the money coming in…
Even though the betting public was very heavy on the Favorites…we didn’t see the line reflect that because the Wiseguys, who had tried to get ahead of the market by betting BOTH favorites when the lines first went up…came right back hours before tip-off…after allowing the public to drive those favs as high as possible…and UNLOADED on BOTH of the Dogs…
And I mean EVERY Outfit was taking a huge position on BOTH of the Dogs…Forcing the sharper books to adjust the line even though they were heavy on the favorite…
That was an obvious sign that they felt the line was giving the Favs the “best of it”…So rather than keep it where it is to attract even more Wiseguy Money and possibly get the money balanced…they opted to adjust quickly to try and stop others from getting down on the Dog…Ultimately taking a position themselves….
So overall, when the dust settled…the books ended up cleaning up again…Because even though they paid off the Wiseguys…they were still extremely one-sided on BOTH of the favorites due to the public…And that was another perfect example of why the Betting Syndicates are always able to come out ahead in the long run…
Because the books are willing to allow them to get the best of it…when the betting volume is high and the recreational bettors money out-weighs the Wiseguy Money…In fact, it’s these Outfits that the books trust to let them know where the Value lies…And they find comfort in knowing that they will be able to attract more than enough money on the opposite sides for them to also come out ahead…even when the Wiseguys win…
That’s the beauty of our inefficient market…And why it is so beatable, if of course you employ discipline and money management…every step of the way…
Saturday was a perfect example of a perfect day for the books…And it’s not by accident that they always seem to come out ahead…during those times of the year…that the recreational bettors money out-weighs the Wiseguys…And the reason for this is because they are able to get those recreational bettors to take the side that is “getting the worst of it”…
Knowing, that just like for us pros…if they can do that enough, then they are assured to come out ahead over time…So they don’t mind at all if the odds makers pass along a “soft” number…Because the Betting Syndicates will correct it…Then the books could go out and attract more than enough public money on the other sides to compensate for that reprimand…
Best of Luck and Thanks again for your continued support…Let’s close out another Winning Week and Winning Month…by having a kick-ass Sunday…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 701 SACRAMENTO +13.5
This line opened -14...and even as high as -14.5...But the Wiseguys stepped in and let the books know that it was way too high…and STEAMED the Kings right away…That’s why even though the betting public is expected to come in on the Fav…the books still adjusted to reflect the “Steam”…And I don’t think they are finished yet, because I’ve spoken to a handful of runners that believe they will be asked to “steam” the Kings again…Because of that, we should see the books adjust some more as we approach tip-off…VR
Sun, 03/28/10 - 6:05 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 710 DET -2.0 (-110) SportBet vs 709 CHI
Analysis:
** NBA MORNING MOVES 2* TRUE STEAM **
DETROIT -2....(2*)
Make sure that you SHOP this Bet...Because some of the sharper books have already gone to -2.5...
I have to agree with the Wiseguys that DETROIT is the right side here...at the right price...
We are getting to that part of the season where the Oddsmakers are going to force bettors to pay a premium for those teams that are in more or less "Must Win" situations...for making the Playoffs, or even Seeding...
So we can sit back and look for those teams who have the inflated number...and fade them, knowing that we are getting the "best of it"...And in this racket, getting your money down when you are getting the "best of it"...is going to leave you with a nice profit over time...
Chicago has managed to win on 13 road games this season...So away from home, they lose a ton of value...And as bad of a year as Detroit has had...the bottom line is they are only 4 games under .500 at home...So when they play there, you have to account for that extra value...
And that is where I believe we are able to take advantage here today...Let's back the Pistons at home by a basket.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Baylor/Duke UNDER 140
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
The Bears have only made it to the Final Four twice in school history (back in the 50's).
They've set a school record for wins this season.
It's had double digit victories over Sam Houston State, Old Dominion and then crushed Saint Mary's 72-49 last Friday to make it to the Elite 8.
“We’re never intimidated by anybody no matter who we play,” said Tweety Carter, Baylor’s senior point guard.
Baylor has seen the total go "under" the number in two of its last three overall and now faces an extremely tough Blue Devils defense.
On the other side of the court: Duke is looking to advance to the Final Four for its 11th time under Coach K.
Duke is going to be in tough today against Baylor's zone defines which held the Gaels to just 35% shooting; just 6 of 22 from behind the arc!
The Bears are big in the middle and rotate quickly to the perimeter; the Blue Devils will have to play a methodical/patient game today.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the number in six of Duke's last seven overall.
Bottom line: It's also important to point out that Duke has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of eleven vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per contest; meaning of course that it saves its best defensive play for elite teams.
No need to overanalyze this one; when taking into account all of the above factors, the sharp money in this one is indeed on the UNDER!
*8* UNDER.
Baylor/Duke UNDER 140
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
The Bears have only made it to the Final Four twice in school history (back in the 50's).
They've set a school record for wins this season.
It's had double digit victories over Sam Houston State, Old Dominion and then crushed Saint Mary's 72-49 last Friday to make it to the Elite 8.
“We’re never intimidated by anybody no matter who we play,” said Tweety Carter, Baylor’s senior point guard.
Baylor has seen the total go "under" the number in two of its last three overall and now faces an extremely tough Blue Devils defense.
On the other side of the court: Duke is looking to advance to the Final Four for its 11th time under Coach K.
Duke is going to be in tough today against Baylor's zone defines which held the Gaels to just 35% shooting; just 6 of 22 from behind the arc!
The Bears are big in the middle and rotate quickly to the perimeter; the Blue Devils will have to play a methodical/patient game today.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the number in six of Duke's last seven overall.
Bottom line: It's also important to point out that Duke has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of eleven vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per contest; meaning of course that it saves its best defensive play for elite teams.
No need to overanalyze this one; when taking into account all of the above factors, the sharp money in this one is indeed on the UNDER!
*8* UNDER.
Tony George
TENNESSEE -1.5
Just cannot ignore what Tennessee has done. They are the real deal, and I did not think so coming in here. Michighan State struggled with a feisty but not deeply talented or tall No. Iowa team, but Tennessee has been on thing in this tourney, Consistent, and that has been their downfall all year. When they are consistent and crash the board, they can play with anyone. Michigan State has won 3 thrillers and bared eaked it out in each game, Tenn. the best team they have seen off a shut down convincing win against a powerful Ohio State.
Play 1 Unit on Tennessee.
TENNESSEE -1.5
Just cannot ignore what Tennessee has done. They are the real deal, and I did not think so coming in here. Michighan State struggled with a feisty but not deeply talented or tall No. Iowa team, but Tennessee has been on thing in this tourney, Consistent, and that has been their downfall all year. When they are consistent and crash the board, they can play with anyone. Michigan State has won 3 thrillers and bared eaked it out in each game, Tenn. the best team they have seen off a shut down convincing win against a powerful Ohio State.
Play 1 Unit on Tennessee.
GoodFella
BAYLOR +5
I am going right back to backing BAYLOR today--as this team is just playing so good and absolutley FULL of CONFIDENCE and feeling very, very good about themselves and each other. Just a very dangerous out for ANY team right now--no doubt about that IMO. They take on a very tough and talented Duke team today--and this game should be a very close and exciting game. I personally see some ROCK SOLID VALUE with BAYLOR +5 today--as I can definitely see them winning this game outright as well. Baylor's zone defense held St. Mary's to 34% shooting--and they have the SIZE and LENGTH to battle with Duke's "bigs" down low too & NOT allow a bunch of 2nd chance points--that Duke can thrive off--as Baylor has three big men atleast 6'-10" to matc-up with Duke's big men, Zoubek, Singler, Thomas, and Plumlee. Baylor has what I see as the most explosive and toughest to guard player in this game in Tweety Cater--and he is absolutely a nightmare to guard--and his counterpart in the backcourt Dunn---this Baylor team has the quickness to give teams absolute fits matchup wise--they are just SO athletic and LONG--that they are such a tough out--and I expect them to give Duke all they can want tonight. Baylor's ability to rebound is extremely key for them to get this game--and they flat out cannot let Duke get 2nd chance points--and must limit that--or they will be in trouble. Baylor has held their three opponents to 37% shooting from the field in the NCAA's and IF they can keep that defense and rebounding up--the backcourt of Carter and Dunn should supply enough offense to make this game a extremely tight game & I just see great value getting the 5 points with Baylor. The last key factor for me--is the obvios location EDGE for BAYLOR--as they CLEARLY will be the HOME team again tonight--just like they were vs St. Mary's--and feeding off that crowd is just another plus I see for BAYLOR backers tonight. Grab the points and look for a very tight game---coming down to the last possesion and even a Baylor outright victory tonight. Take Baylor.
BAYLOR +5
I am going right back to backing BAYLOR today--as this team is just playing so good and absolutley FULL of CONFIDENCE and feeling very, very good about themselves and each other. Just a very dangerous out for ANY team right now--no doubt about that IMO. They take on a very tough and talented Duke team today--and this game should be a very close and exciting game. I personally see some ROCK SOLID VALUE with BAYLOR +5 today--as I can definitely see them winning this game outright as well. Baylor's zone defense held St. Mary's to 34% shooting--and they have the SIZE and LENGTH to battle with Duke's "bigs" down low too & NOT allow a bunch of 2nd chance points--that Duke can thrive off--as Baylor has three big men atleast 6'-10" to matc-up with Duke's big men, Zoubek, Singler, Thomas, and Plumlee. Baylor has what I see as the most explosive and toughest to guard player in this game in Tweety Cater--and he is absolutely a nightmare to guard--and his counterpart in the backcourt Dunn---this Baylor team has the quickness to give teams absolute fits matchup wise--they are just SO athletic and LONG--that they are such a tough out--and I expect them to give Duke all they can want tonight. Baylor's ability to rebound is extremely key for them to get this game--and they flat out cannot let Duke get 2nd chance points--and must limit that--or they will be in trouble. Baylor has held their three opponents to 37% shooting from the field in the NCAA's and IF they can keep that defense and rebounding up--the backcourt of Carter and Dunn should supply enough offense to make this game a extremely tight game & I just see great value getting the 5 points with Baylor. The last key factor for me--is the obvios location EDGE for BAYLOR--as they CLEARLY will be the HOME team again tonight--just like they were vs St. Mary's--and feeding off that crowd is just another plus I see for BAYLOR backers tonight. Grab the points and look for a very tight game---coming down to the last possesion and even a Baylor outright victory tonight. Take Baylor.
Dwayne Bryant
Baylor/Duke UNDER 139
The first thing that caught my eye in this one is the pace at which these teams play. Out of 347 Division I teams, Duke ranks #227 in tempo according to Pomeroy, while the Bears rank #238. The next thing that made me take the UNDER was looking at the scores of the games these two have played so far in this tournament. Average total points in Baylor's three games: 130.7; Average total points in Duke's three games: 121.7. Both teams are playing stellar defense in The Big Dance. Baylor is allowing 58.7 points per game on 37% shooting, while Duke is allowing 51.3 points per game on 36% shooting. Expect more slower pace and more solid D in this one. I have this total ending up somewhere between 132 and 135, so I'll gladly take the UNDER.
Baylor/Duke UNDER 139
The first thing that caught my eye in this one is the pace at which these teams play. Out of 347 Division I teams, Duke ranks #227 in tempo according to Pomeroy, while the Bears rank #238. The next thing that made me take the UNDER was looking at the scores of the games these two have played so far in this tournament. Average total points in Baylor's three games: 130.7; Average total points in Duke's three games: 121.7. Both teams are playing stellar defense in The Big Dance. Baylor is allowing 58.7 points per game on 37% shooting, while Duke is allowing 51.3 points per game on 36% shooting. Expect more slower pace and more solid D in this one. I have this total ending up somewhere between 132 and 135, so I'll gladly take the UNDER.
