Service Plays Sunday 12/6/15

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cousin sal-espn 3-0 last week Atl. +3 1/2 2team 6 pt. teaser Cinn. -3 1/2 New England -3 1/2 best bet new Orleans +7
 

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HONDO
Best bets: Panthers, Vikings, Steelers.

Hondo labored again in the compulsories, struggling to a 6-10 record, but crushed it in the Best Bets as he surged to the summit by going 3-0 while all around him were wilting under the intense pressure.
Giants over Jets: A huge showdown as Mediocre takes on Ordinary at the Just OK Corral. The Giants clearly have more on the line, given their second-rate status in the NFC East. Then there’s co-owner Steve Tisch putting Tom Coughlin on notice, which has sparked an inspirational rallying cry for Big Blue this week: Win one for Tommy TightButt!
Bears over 49ers: Online sales on Brawling Black Friday reportedly were down this year, while cyber sales were up. At this point, there’s really no need to go out to shop unless you are looking for a fistfight.
Bengals over Browns: Donald Trump had to go into denial mode again after mocking a New York Times reporter’s physical disability. It’s too bad Trump couldn’t have run against FDR. Think of all the fun zingers El Donaldo could have unloaded on him.
Titans over Jaguars: Al Sharpton warned more than 100 black ministers not to meet with Trump on Monday because he felt they were being used for a shameless photo-op. The Reverend feels strongly they should save themselves for when he wants to use them in his shameless photo-ops.
Texans over Bills: From Obama’s pregame speech on the climate summit in Paris: “What a powerful rebuke to the terrorists it will be, when the world stands as one …” Apparently, the two terrorists in California weren’t sufficiently rebuked. Then again, with the President having declared ISIS is “contained” and “al Qaeda is on the run,” is it still necessary to rebuke the terrorists?
Dolphins over Ravens: Obama told the climate summit the U.S. is “the second largest emitter” of greenhouse gasses, failing to mention he is the No. 1 emitter of White House gasses.
Panthers over Saints: From BarkingMut of SoBe, where Art Basel has the celebrity dogs panting for paintings: Emails reveal aides of Hillary Clinton said she appeared to be “confused” for months after suffering a concussion three years ago. That’s the same condition afflicting tens of millions of her supporters, who, according to polls, will vote for her despite all of her proven prevarications and frequent failures as Secretary of State.
Vikings over Seahawks: People having sex with horses reportedly is on the rise in Switzerland. Apparently, that’s when the Swiss do their best yodeling.
Cardinals over Rams: After the Rams were thumped by the Bengwads, coach Jeff Fisher bristled at the thought his team had quit, “Anyone who implies it’s an effort issue can kiss my ass.” That narrows it down to a talent issue or coaching issue. Maybe Fisher can further clarify the situation after Sunday’s thumping by the Cards.
Buccaneers over Falcons: It’s always nice to bet against Matty Ice.
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David LettermanBroncos over Chargers: David Letterman donated a batch of memorabilia from his talk show to Ball State for something called the “David Letterman Experience.” However, Hondo hears his alma mater passed on the Late Show Intern Love Couch, finding it to be a bit too crusty.
Raiders over Chiefs: Poland announced this week it will not extradite convicted sex offender Roman Polanski to the U.S., which should provide alleged amateur pharmacist Bill Cosby a possible refuge if needed.
Patriots over Eagles: Bird watchers have been flocking to Prospect Park to get a glimpse of the rare male painted bunting. How rare is it? Ornithologists say it shows up about as often as a Philadelphia Eagle on game day.
Referee Pete Morelli’s crew, which reportedly had numerous screwups in the Cards-49ers game, has been removed from the Sunday night game and reassigned to Eagles-Pats. Word is Roger Goodell made the move because he enjoys watching his Deflategate nemesis, Tom Brady, act like a whining wuss when calls don’t go his way.
Steelers over Colts: It was downright accommodating of SI.com’s Peter King to put a spit-shine on the NFL’s concussion policy by pointing out how well it worked with Ben Roethlisberger during Sunday’s Steelers-Seahawks game. It was just what the doctor ordered in the wake of the league taking a big hit for St. Louis QB Case Keenum being allowed to play through a concussion in Week 11.
Speaking of the Steelers, is it asking too much for somebody in their Silk Curtain secondary to make a tackle to prevent a cover-killing 5-yard catch, 75-yard TD run by Angry Doug Baldwin in the final minutes? Angry Hondo would have greatly appreciated it.
Redskins over Cowboys: With Romo done, the Cowboys are back to Casseling. Checkmate!
And finally, Mr. Aitch is calling on HondoNation to extend a hearty welcome to his Second-But-Equal Heir’s Second-But-Equal Heiress — Sarah Paige, a lanky 21-inch, 7-pound, 3-ounce beauty who vacated the cozy confines and made a grand entrance Tuesday.

Best
bets: Panthers, Vikings, Steelers.

Thursday: Packers [W]
 

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Randall The Handle

Ravens (4-7) at Dolphins (4-7)

LINE: MIAMI by 3½
Playing a road game on Monday night and then travelling on a short week would be a difficult hump to get over under normal circumstances. In Baltimore’s case, it’s a mountain. The Ravens went the full distance before earning a bizarre win at Cleveland, but now will take its battered and exhausted squad to south Florida to face the Fish. While John Harbaugh’s depleted group has somehow won three of four, the trio of victories were against teams that are a combined 8-25 on the season. The loss in that set was to the struggling Jaguars. With 17 guys now on injured reserve and forced to call up bodies from the practice roster this week, we don’t see the Crows putting up much of a battle here. Miami isn’t strong, but at least they have a pro roster, unlike today’s visitor.
TAKING: DOLPHINS –3½
**********
Texans (6-5) at Bills (5-6)
LINE: BUFFALO by 3
The Bills have lulled everyone to sleep heading into this one. The Thursday night win at the Jets nearly a month ago is long forgotten. On the forefront of people’s minds is a two-game losing streak and a barrage of criticism aimed at Rex Ryan’s coaching skills. But if we peel back a layer, we find that the mini-slump occurred at New England and at red-hot Kansas City. Who’s winning at either of those venues these days? We also uncover this to be Buffalo’s only home game in a six-week span. Granted, the Texans are on a roll, but three of the four games enjoyed on this winning streak occurred at home, which included visits from the woeful Titans and Saints. Current form of these two teams has created a sell-high, buy-low situation. We’ll gladly obey.
TAKING: BILLS –3
**********
Falcons (6-5) at Buccaneers (5-6)
LINE: TAMPA BAY by 1½
In the midst of a four-game slide, each time as the favourite, the Falcons have about as much appeal as Donald Trump’s hairstyle. Still, this may be the time to step in on the labouring club. When we look at the four main offensive and defensive categories, it is Atlanta that ranks higher than today’s opponent in all eight. The biggest discrepancies can be found in points allowed, where the Bucs rank 25th compared to the Falcons’ 13th ranking and in yards passing as Atlanta is sixth in the league compared to Tampa at 26th. That does not bode well for Tampa when slotted as the favourite here. Atlanta also is looking to exact some revenge after being tripped up by this division foe in a 23-20 overtime contest last month. The Buccaneers were a lopsided +4 in turnovers that day, but still needed the extra time.
TAKING: FALCONS +1½
**********
9ers (3-8) at Bears (5-6)
LINE: CHICAGO by 7
A featured U.S. Thanksgiving Day game allowed all to see Chicago knock off nemesis Green Bay at Lambeau Field, adding to the Bears’ feel-good storyline that has unfolded this season. Therein lies the danger. Now oddsmakers recognize the sudden appeal of the Bears, especially when playing the undermanned 49ers. So, for the first time this season, Chicago is asked to give away points — and not just a few of them, but a full touchdown’s worth. That’s a tall order for a team that has seen six of its past seven games decided by four points or less. Niners don’t offer much offensively, but the defence has played well and can keep things close enough to stay within the required range here.
TAKING: 49ERS +7
**********
Browns (2-9) at Bengals (9-2)
LINE: CINCINNATI by 9½
Just a few more speed bumps remain in the potholed road that is the Browns’ agonizing season. While we would usually be reluctant to give away this many road points in a divisional game, we have no interest in jumping on this Cleveland train wreck. Austin Davis will get the start for the Brownies after Josh McCown suffered a shoulder injury and Johnny Manziel is in the franchise’s doghouse. Davis is an undrafted free agent who played a half-a-season for the Rams last year with mixed results. Most alarmingly, he was sacked 29 times in the short stint, crumbling when under pressure. The Bengals enjoy beating up these types and they’ll go for the sweep after dismantling Cleveland 31-10 earlier this year.
TAKING: BENGALS –9½
**********
Jaguars (4-7) at Titans (2-9)
LINE: TENNESSEE by 2½
Well, at least it isn’t the Monday-nighter. While neither squad earns a ringing endorsement, it is best to blindly take the underdog when teams like the Titans are favoured. They don’t know how to win, so asking them to do so and by a margin defies any sort of good sense. It doesn’t help that Tennessee has now lost 11 straight on this field, winless here since October of last year. The Titans may have the better defence, but they have trouble moving the ball with an offence that ranks 30th in yards and 29th in scoring. The Jaguars move the ball, but seem to falter in the red zone, kicking field goals in three of four trips there in last week’s loss to the Chargers.
TAKING: JAGUARS +2½
**********
Panthers (11-0) at Saints (4-7)
LINE: CAROLINA by 7
Do you know who came close to spoiling Carolina’s perfect 11-0 season a few weeks back? The Saints, that’s who. Not only did it require a Josh Norman interception in the end zone to preserve a five-point lead with a minute to play, but the turnover came off sub QB Luke McCown that day as Drew Brees was sidelined with a rotator-cuff injury. After a power outage on the road the past two weeks, New Orleans returns home where it is 3-2 while averaging 31 points per game. With some flickering playoff hopes and revenge in mind, this game is paramount for the Saints. It won’t be easy against this strong Carolina group, but with all these points, it sets up favourably for the host.
TAKING: SAINTS +7
**********
Seahawks (6-5) at Vikings (8-3)
LINE: Even
You can back reputation or you can back the better product. Currently, the latter lies with the Vikings. Seattle is not the Seattle of old. Its defence isn’t scaring anyone these days as it has given up acreages of yards and oodles of points when facing winning teams. In last week’s suspect win over Pittsburgh, Ben Roethlisberger shredded the Seahawks’ secondary for 456 yards. Now Seattle will travel for the first time in more than a month after hosting three straight and enjoying its bye week. The Seahawks have been less than impressive when leaving CenturyLink with a 2-3 mark, 1-3-1 versus the spread, with wins at lowly San Francisco and a narrow 13-12 victory at broken Dallas. The Vikes have covered nine of 10 and are underpriced here, just needing a win to cover.
TAKING: VIKINGS Even
**********
Cardinals (9-2) at Rams (4-7)
LINE: ARIZONA by 6
The Rams have just four wins on the season. As unlikely as it may seem, they are 3-0 within their division, including triumphs over both the Seahawks and these Cardinals. Outside of the NFC West, St. Louis is 1-7. On the heels of a four-game skid and with all sorts of disarray at the quarterback position, backing St. Louis is not very palatable. But while the Cardinals have been impressive, they, too, are not without woes. Arizona’s running game is beat up, with Chris Johnson now gone for the year and Andre Ellington on the shelf. The Cardinals are also thin in their secondary. Now playing its third road game in four weeks and spotting points against this division buster, Arizona doesn’t figure to have an easy time of it.
TAKING: RAMS +6
**********
Jets (6-5) at Giants (5-6)
LINE: NY JETS by 2½
The only travelling the Jets will endure for this one is to the visitor’s locker room. With both teams calling MetLife Stadium home, the crowd will only be slightly partisan. From the oddsmaker’s point of view, this is a neutral field and that is why the Jets are allowed to be favoured. No matter which team would be chalk, each is difficult to trust. Gang Green had gone five straight without a cover before a win/cover over the Dolphins last week. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was flawless in that game with four touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Back-to-back games of that nature from Fitzpatrick would be more the exception than the rule. With the Giants’ pass rush improving now and a slightly more reliable Eli Manning, G-Men get the nod.
TAKING: GIANTS +2½
**********
Broncos (9-2) at Chargers (3-8)
LINE: DENVER by 4
If you’ve watched the NFL for any duration of time, you get accustomed to the up-and-down nature of the sport. After Brock Osweiler led his Broncos to a win over previously unbeaten New England last week, the ups don’t come much higher in regular-season play for a young starter. However, this is typically where a down can occur as Denver will take on an unsuspecting Chargers squad. San Diego is feeling better about itself after snapping a five-game losing streak. QB Philip Rivers continues to put up impressive numbers and he’ll have the luxury of facing a Broncos squad that suffered some key injuries in the big win versus the Pats. The Bolts also are best when taking points, covering three of their past four as the pooch.
TAKING: CHARGERS +4
**********
Chiefs (6-5) at Raiders (5-6)
LINE: KANSAS CITY by 3
While spotting road points within a division has inherent risk, it is tough to fade the Chiefs right now at a cheap price against an inferior foe. Kansas City is not winning by fluke, good fortune or happenstance. They are performing well in all aspects of the game. The same can’t be said of the Raiders. Oakland was very fortunate to escape Tennessee with a controversial win. The Raiders’ offence has lost some of its early-season lustre, failing to find the end zone on a consistent basis. Meanwhile, K.C. continues its surge toward a playoff berth, winning five straight and none by fewer than eight points. The visitor has fared well in this series with a 9-2-1 mark versus the number.
TAKING: CHIEFS –3
**********
Eagles (4-7) at Patriots (10-1)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 10
New England’s cluster injury troubles are well-documented, primarily striking the Patriots’ offensive playmakers. Not to worry. Offence won’t be required to do much as the Pats’ defence can contain Philadelphia’s defused offence. The Eagles have failed to reach 20 points in each of their previous three games, even though two of them had Mark Sanchez at quarterback. Sam Bradford is expected to return, but the fragile QB is banged up and, more importantly, he lacks playmakers around him. New England has allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league. Offensively, Tom Brady does not have to be in the 30s to get a cover here and, against this porous Philly defence, whatever is accumulated should do the trick.
TAKING: PATRIOTS –10
**********
Colts (6-5) at Steelers (6-5)
LINE: PITTSBURGH by 7
It appears Ben Roethlisberger is a go for this one. While Ben makes an immeasurable difference for Pittsburgh, quarterbacks don’t play defence. That is where the Steelers are vulnerable these days. Coach Mike Tomlin recognized this (surprising as that may seem) after his team was torched by Russell Wilson for five touchdowns in a loss at Seattle last week. Meanwhile, the Colts have found veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck to be quite efficient as his 4-0 mark as a starter for Indy indicates. Also helping the Indy offence has been the mid-season appointment of Rob Chudzinski as offensive coordinator, with his schemes producing the desired results.
TAKING: COLTS +7
**********
Cowboys (3-8) at Redskins (5-6)
LINE: WASHINGTON by 4½
So ends Dallas’ unlikely run at a playoff spot. Now the demoralized Cowboys will be featured in what turns out to be a meaningless game against a suddenly relevant Washington team. The Redskins have managed to climb into a tie for first place in the NFC East with some strong play on this field. The ’Skins are on a five-game winning streak here as QB Kirk Cousins has cut down on mistakes with an 11/2 touchdown to interception ratio at FedEx Field. Conversely, QB Matt Cassel is clearly not a solution for Dallas as the mid-season acquisition is 0-5 for his new team. Considered a long-standing rivalry, the ’Skins have been getting the best of it, lately covering eight of their past 10 against the ’Boys.
TAKING: REDSKINS –4½
 

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Mike Francesa - WFAN LW (3-1) YR (22-14) Say's had trouble finding games
SF +7
TB -1
Couldn't find a third game - lst time I can remember
 

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Las Vegas Hilton Contest
=========================


Week 13 NFL Picks By Most Contestants
(2-3 Last Week / 32-26-2 ATS YTD)


1 Seattle Pick’em By 484
2 Houston +3.5 By 439
3 New Orleans +7 By 432
4 NY Giants +2.5 By 424
5 Kansas City -2.5 By 414


=====================================


Top Contestants


(42-17-1) (LW 2-3)
Week 13 Picks: HOU ATL SD OAK PHI
-----------------------------
(41-16-3) (LW 2-3)
week 13 Picks: HOU SEA ARI NYJ KC
----------------------------
(40-18-2) (LW 1-4)
Week 13 Picks: CLE HOU SEA DEN DAL
 
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PREDICTION MACHINE

AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $
371 4:05 PM DEN @ SD -4 6.4 56.3% $41

STRAIGHT-UP PICKS
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%
371 4:05 PM DEN @ SD 26.7 20.4 65.2%

OVER/UNDER PICKS
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $
372 4:05 PM DEN @ SD 43.5 47.1 Over 56.2% $40
 

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Jack Jones

NFL
20* Falcons +1
20* Saints +7
15* 49ers +7
15* Cardinals -4
15* Browns +10
15* Chiefs -2.5
 

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Football Crusher
North Carolina +4.5 over Clemson - pending
Cleveland Browns +9 over Cincinnati Bengals
(System Record: 38-2, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 38-34-2

Rest of the Plays
Minnesota Vikings +1.5 over Seattle Seahawks
New York Jets -135 over New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers PK over Atlanta Falcons
 

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Hockey Crusher
Ottawa Senators + New York Rangers UNDER 5.5
(System Record: 22-1, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 22-27-8

Rest of the Plays
Chicago Blackhawks -195 over Winnipeg Jets
Buffalo Sabres + Edmonton Oilers OVER 5
 

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Basketball Crusher
Davidson +13.5 over North Carolina
(System Record: 21-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 21-18

Rest of the Plays
Loyola Marymount PK over UC Riverside
Vanderbilt +1.5 over Baylor
Colorado -1 over Colorado State
 

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Soccer Crusher
Ponte Preta SP + Sport Recife PE OVER 2
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 868-26, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 868-686-135
 

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