STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL STAT/SHEETS
SUNDAY DECEMBER, 14th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #15 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NFL Betting News And Notes - Week #14
•Biggest Favorite To Cash: Detroit (-10.5) continued to roll at Ford Field by avoiding a letdown with a 24-17 victory over the upset-minded Buccaneers. Matthew Stafford tossed three touchdowns for the Lions, who are 6-1 straight-up and 5-2 against the spread at home this season. Calvin Johnson caught eight passes for 158 yards and a score as the Lions moved one-half game behind Green Bay in the NFC North and bolstered their chances in the wild-card race. Joique Bell scored two touchdowns and the defense forced three turnovers, with safeties James Ihedigbo and Glover Quin each recording an interception and linebacker DeAndre Levy notching two sacks.
•Biggest Underdog To Cash: The Falcons (+13.5) picked themselves up off the mat after going down 31-7 at halftime, rallying for the cover. The Falcons scored a TD with 12:33 left in the fourth quarter to pull within 10, and get back in good shape for the cover. However, their lead was short-lived, as the Packers struck for a 60-yard pass play and score just 1:55 later, putting the Packers in line for the cover despite a missed extra point which could have factored in big if the game ended up a 13-point margin rather than 14. The Falcons answered back, then the Packers hit a field goal to go up 13. The blocked extra point ended up not factoring in, as the Falcons scored the final points of the game with 2:11 for the cover.
•Home/Away: Road teams went 7-2 in the early games on Sunday. The only home squads to win in the 1:00 games were Minnesota and Detroit, as the Vikings pulled off an overtime victory over the Jets, 30-24, while grabbing a frontdoor cover. In the four early confrontations that featured road favorites, all four squads (Indianapolis, Houston, New York Giants, and St. Louis) picked up victories, while this group went 3-1 ATS. The Colts (-3) rallied late to stun the Browns, 25-24, overcoming a pair of defensive touchdowns by Cleveland. The Texans, Giants, and Rams all won by double-digits, while St. Louis pulled off its second consecutive shutout.
•Silver and Back:Break up the Raiders, who won for the second time in three games following an 0-10 start with Sunday's 24-13 home triumph of San Francisco as 8.5-point underdogs. Derek Carr outdueled Colin Kaepernick as the Oakland rookie quarterback tossed three touchdowns, while the Raiders' defense limited San Francisco to 248 yards. Carr went 22-of-28 and did not have a turnover while tight end Mychal Rivera caught seven passes for a career-high 109 yards and a TD for the Raiders who bounced back after getting crushed 52-0 by St. Louis last week. Marcel Reece added seven receptions for 64 yards and a score.
Colin Kaepernick struggled to 18-of-33 for 174 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions as the 49ers fell three games behind Arizona in the NFC West and two games behind Dallas, Detroit and division rival Seattle for the two NFC wild card spots. Michael Crabtree had 56 receiving yards and Frank Gore rushed for 63 for San Francisco. Carr guided the Raiders to a pair of 80-yard TD drives in the second half, hitting Reece for the go-ahead 9-yard score in the third and making it a 24-13 gap with a 5-yard TD pass to Rivera with 10:39 left in the game. Kaepernick was sacked on third-and-eight from the Oakland 25-yard line and Phil Dawson missed the ensuing 47-yard field goal attempt, and Kaepernick was intercepted by Charles Woodson on the next 49ers drive.
•Not so Sunny:All three Sunshine State teams lost, including the Jaguars and Dolphins at home. Miami blew an early 10-0 lead in a 28-13 defeat to Baltimore as three-point favorites in a virtual playoff game for positioning in the AFC. Jacksonville couldn't capitalize off last week's dramatic victory over the Giants, as the Jags fell short in a 27-13 setback to the Texans as 6.5-point underdogs. Josh McCown was 20-of-39 for 250 yards and two touchdown passes to rookie Mike Evans for the Buccaneers but was intercepted twice and sacked six times. Vincent Jackson had season highs of 10 receptions and 159 yards as Tampa Bay lost its third straight contest.
•Flying High: The Seahawks won on the East Coast for the third time in three tries this season, knocking off the Eagles, 24-14 in a key NFC showdown. Seattle opened up as one-point underdogs, but closed as 1.5-point favorites to improve to 4-3 on the road. Philadelphia suffered its first regular season loss at Lincoln Financial Field in the past eleven tries. Doug Baldwin and Marshawn Lynch caught scoring passes as the Seahawks won their third straight and remained one game behind first-place Arizona in the NFC West. Lynch rushed for 86 yards and Seattle possessed the ball for 41 minutes, 56 seconds while outgaining the Eagles 440-139 and holding a 28-9 advantage in first downs.
•Totals:In the first full December card, the Under came through in nine of 14 games on Sunday, including a perfect 4-0 to the Under in the late contests Sunday, with the Over hitting Monday night. The Steelers (42) and Panthers (41) were the top-scoring teams on Sunday, as Carolina barely went Over the total of 50.5 in a 41-10 win at New Orleans. Pittsburgh blew up in the fourth quarter at Cincinnati with a 25-point output, as the Steelers cruised to a 42-21 drubbing with a total of 47.5. Indianapolis had an opportunity to pick up a push on the 50 total at Cleveland by just kicking the extra-point after the go-ahead touchdown, but the Colts went for a two-point conversion and missed it. The Colts actually went for another two-point conversation earlier and didn't convert, costing Over bettors for a free two points in a 25-24 win.
The Jets-Vikings game had the lowest total (40) on the board, as Minnesota led at halftime, 21-15 to pretty much guarantee an Over. The Jets tied the game at 21-21 early in the fourth, as New York snapped a four-game streak to the Under in a 30-24 loss. Notable streaks that were extended and came to a close are listed below. The Buffalo Bills have cashed the Under in five consecutive games, while owning the best Under mark in the league at 11-2. Tampa Bay's six-game Under streak came to a close in the 34-17 loss at Detroit on a 41.5 total. The Over for Green Bay snapped a two-game Under slide. Overall this season, the Over is 6-1 at home for the Packers, and 10-3 overall.
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Week #15 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#305 OAKLAND @ #306 KANSAS CITY - 1:00 PM
The Raiders beat the 49ers 24-13 as a 8.5-point underdog in Oakland on Sunday. Kansas City, meanwhile, lost 17-14 in Arizona. The Raiders beat the Chiefs 24-20 in Oakland two weeks ago for their first straight-up victory of the season. Kansas City won 24-7 when it hosted the Raiders as an eight-point favorite last season, but prior to that loss the Raiders had enjoyed success when playing in Arrowhead Stadium: Oakland has won-and-covered in six of their last seven trips to Kansas City, and five of the last six meetings have gone Under the total. LB Sio Moore (hip) is questionable for the Raiders.
KEY STATS
•OAKLAND is 28-52 ATS in December games since 1992.
•OAKLAND is 3-16 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992.
•OAKLAND is 3-14 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the L3 seasons.
•KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
•KANSAS CITY is 17-34 ATS at home after scoring 14 points or less last game since 1992.
•KANSAS CITY is 13-3 OVER at home after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
#307 JACKSONVILLE @ #308 BALTIMORE - 1:00 PM
The Jaguars lost 27-13 as a seven-point home underdog on Sunday and have now lost and failed to cover in three of their last four confrontations. The Ravens, meanwhile, beat the Dolphins 28-13 as a three-point road underdogs. These teams last met in 2011, when the Jaguars won 12-7 as a 10-point home underdog. The Ravens, however, have not lost a home game to the Jaguars straight-up since November 1999. Jacksonville rookie quarterback Blake Bortles has thrown an interception in every game this year and now faces a Ravens team that is sixth in the league in total defense.
KEY STATS
•BALTIMORE is 24-8 UNDER against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
•BALTIMORE is 15-2 UNDER at home against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
•BALTIMORE is 11-1 ATS at home after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
•JACKSONVILLE is 8-19 ATS as an underdog over the L2 seasons.
•JACKSONVILLE is 11-24 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L3 seasons.
•JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the L2 seasons.
#309 PITTSBURGH @ #310 ATLANTA - 1:00 PM
The Steelers scored 24 unanswered points in Cincinnati on Sunday, turning a 21-17 third-quarter deficit into a 42-21 victory. Running back Le’Veon Bell gashed the Bengals defense with 185 rushing yards and two touchdowns to go along with six catches, 50 receiving yards and a touchdown reception. Pittsburgh comes into this one with an offense that ranks second to the Colts in both total offense and in passing offense. The Falcons’ defense, meanwhile, is the only unit in the league giving up an average of more than 400 yards per game, and also the only one giving up an average of more than 280 passing yards per game.
KEY STATS
•MIKE TOMLIN is 30-16 OVER off a division game.
•PITTSBURGH is 7-0 OVER in non-conference games over the L2 seasons.
•PITTSBURGH is 30-16 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game since 1992.
•ATLANTA is 8-20 ATS at home versus teams averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
•ATLANTA is 9-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61%+ over the L2 seasons.
•ATLANTA is 11-2 UNDER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play over the L3 seasons.
#311 HOUSTON @ #312 INDIANAPOLIS - 1:00 PM
The Texans beat the Jaguars 27-13 in Jacksonville on Sunday and have now won and covered in two straight and three of the last four encounters. The Colts, meanwhile, came from behind to beat the Browns 25-24 as a three-point favorite in Cleveland. A 33-28 victory as a 2.5-point road underdog earlier in the season gave the Colts their fourth straight win-and-cover over the Texans and fifth in their last six games. The Colts have not lost a game SU when hosting the Texans since Houston entered the league in 2002. Indianapolis has covered in eight of the 12 home meetings between the teams.
KEY STATS
•HOUSTON is 5-15 ATS in dome games since 1992.
•HOUSTON is 21-9 UNDER away in December games since 1992.
•HOUSTON is 2-11 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the L2 seasons.
•INDIANAPOLIS is 9-0 ATS versus division opponents over the L2 seasons.
•INDIANAPOLIS is 15-2 ATS in a home game where total is >=45.5 over L3 seasons.
•INDIANAPOLIS is 11-0 ATS in a home game where total is between 45.5 and 49 points over L3 seasons.
#313 CINCINNATI @ #314 CLEVELAND - 1:00 PM
The Bengals lost to the Steelers 42-21 as a three-point favorite on Sunday. The Browns also lost at home, blowing a 21-7 second half lead to fall 25-24 to the Colts. The Browns have gotten the best of the Bengals recently, winning and-covering in three of their last four meetings. Those wins include a 24-3 beatdown in Cincinnati on November 6th. Cleveland has won-and-covered in the last two games they’ve played at home against Cincy, and they’ve also covered in four of the last five. Quarterback Brian Hoyer’s status as a starter is uncertain after yet another two-pick game.
KEY STATS
•CINCINNATI is 10-25 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992.
•CINCINNATI is 7-20 ATS away off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival since 1992.
•CINCINNATI is 13-2 ATS after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.
•CLEVELAND is 8-2 UNDER after the first month of the season this season.
•CLEVELAND is 69-42 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
•CLEVELAND is 52-34 UNDER at home after 1 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
#315 MIAMI @ #316 NEW ENGLAND - 1:00 PM
While Miami 28-13 to the Ravens on Sunday as a three-point favorite, the Patriots went into San Diego and picked up a 23-14 victory as a four-point road favorite. The Dolphins hosted the Patriots earlier in the season and won 33-20 as a 3.5-point underdog. Miami has now won and covered in their last two games against the Patriots, but both of those contests took place in Miami. The Patriots’ last SU loss to Miami in Foxboro was back in September 2008, when New England QB Tom Brady was sidelined with a knee injury. Safety Louis Delmas (knee) is out for the year for Miami.
KEY STATS
•MIAMI is 12-2 UNDER versus division opponents over the L3 seasons.
•MIAMI is 22-9 UNDER against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
•MIAMI is 23-7 UNDER after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
•NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the L2 seasons.
•NEW ENGLAND is 10-0 OVER at home vs. teams with a completion pct. of 64%+ over the L3 seasons.
•NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 OVER at home after covering spread in 2 of their last 3 games over L3 seasons.
#317 TAMPA BAY @ #318 CAROLINA - 1:00 PM
The Buccaneers lost 34-17 as a 10-point underdog in Detroit on Sunday while the Panthers dominated the Saints 41-10 as a nine-point underdogs in New Orleans. Carolina won 20-14 as a five-point underdog when these teams met on September 7th, QB Derek Anderson was under center for an injured Cam Newton in that game. The Panthers have won-and-covered in three straight against the Buccaneers and are 4-2 straight-up and versus the spread when facing them in Carolina since 2008. Newton is coming off of his best game of the year, throwing for 226 yards with three touchdowns, no picks and a rushing touchdown.
KEY STATS
•TAMPA BAY is 21-8 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992.
•TAMPA BAY is 8-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the L3 seasons.
•TAMPA BAY is 24-9 ATS away after a playing a game where 50+ total points were scored since 1992.
•CAROLINA is 43-14 UNDER off a win against a division rival since 1992.
•CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS at home off 1 or more straight overs over the L2 seasons.
•CAROLINA is 23-7 UNDER off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival since 1992.
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#319 WASHINGTON @ #320 NY GIANTS - 1:00 PM
The Redskins were blown out 24-0 at home against the Rams as a three-point underdog on Sunday. New York, meanwhile, beat the Titans 36-7 in Tennessee. The Giants went into Washington in Week #4 and won 45-14 as a three-point road underdog. Eli Manning was excellent in that game, throwing for 300 yards with four touchdowns and just one interception. The Giants have won and covered in three straight games against the Redskins and they’ve won seven of the last 10 games straight-up. At home, they’ve been even more dominant with eight wins in their last 10 games hosting Washington.
KEY STATS
•WASHINGTON is 6-16 ATS as an underdog over the L2 seasons.
•WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS vs. defenses allowing 235 or more passing yards/game this season.
•WASHINGTON is 13-1 ATS versus teams allowing >=6 yards/play in the 2nd half of season since 1992.
•NY GIANTS are 62-35 UNDER after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
•NY GIANTS are 53-27 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game since 1992.
•NY GIANTS are 13-4 OVER at home after failing to cover spread in 5/6 of their last 7 games since 1992.
#321 GREEN BAY @ #322 BUFFALO - 1:00 PM
The Packers head into this game on a short week after having won a shootout over the Falcons Monday night. The Bills lost 24-17 in Denver as a 9.5-point road underdog, covering for their third straight game. This game features one of the league’s top offenses going against a Buffalo team that ranks fourth in the league in scoring defense. The Bills held Broncos QB Peyton Manning to 173 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. They’ll look to do the same to QB Aaron Rodgers but they’ll need to be more prepared to stop the run as Denver RB C.J. Anderson scored three rushing touchdowns on Sunday.
KEY STATS
•GREEN BAY is 60-39 OVER in games played on turf since 1992.
•GREEN BAY is 83-57 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
•GREEN BAY is 61-36 ATS when playing a team with a winning record in 2nd half of season since 1992.
•BUFFALO is 12-1 ATS off a road loss over the L3 seasons.
•BUFFALO is 8-2 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
•BUFFALO is 16-4 OVER at home against teams with a TO margin of +1 per game or better since 1992.
#323 MINNESOTA @ #324 DETROIT - 4:25 PM
The Vikings beat the Jets on Sunday, 30-24 on an 87-yard touchdown reception by Jarius Wright in overtime. The Lions, meanwhile, beat the Buccaneers 34-17 as a 10-point favorite in Detroit. In mid-October, the Lions defeated the Vikings 17-3 as a one-point road favorite, taking advantage of three interceptions thrown by Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The Lions have now won-and-covered in two of the last three meetings in this head-to-head series. The Lions have also won three of the last four games played in Detroit, covering in two of those contests. LB Anthony Barr (knee) is questionable for Minnesota
KEY STATS
•MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
•MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS vs. teams averaging 260+ passing YPG after 8+ games over the L2 seasons.
•MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS vs. DEF allowing comp. pct. of <=61% in 2nd half of season over L3 seasons.
•DETROIT is 26-45 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
•DETROIT is 4-17 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the L3 seasons.
•DETROIT is 7-0 ATS at home after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.
#325 NY JETS @ #326 TENNESSEE - 4:05 PM
The Jets found yet another creative way to lose a football game, this time allowing an 87-yard touchdown reception on a screen pass in overtime of a 30-24 loss in Minnesota. The Titans, meanwhile, lost 36-7 at home to the Giants, the third straight game in which Tennessee has allowed more than 35 points. When these teams met in Tennessee last season, the Titans steamrolled the Jets 38-13 as a 3.5-point favorite. They have won and covered in each of the past two meetings with New York, with both taking place in Tennessee. Quarterback Jake Locker will start for Tennessee in place of Zach Mettenberger (shoulder).
KEY STATS
•NY JETS are 4-16 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the L3 seasons.
•NY JETS are 45-22 UNDER vs. teams outscored by 6+ points per game on the season since 1992.
•NY JETS are 15-3 UNDER after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
•TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
•TENNESSEE is 9-0 OVER after scoring 7 points or less in 1st half in 2 straight games over L3 seasons.
•TENNESSEE is 12-2 OVER after being outgained by opponent by 100+ total yards last game over L3 seasons.
#327 DENVER @ #328 SAN DIEGO - 4:05 PM
While the Broncos beat the Bills 24-17 as a 9.5-point home favorite behind three rushing touchdowns from RB C.J. Anderson, the Chargers lost 23-14 as a four-point home underdog against the Patriots. The Broncos won and covered in a 35-21 home victory over San Diego earlier in the season to improve to 6-1 straight-up against the Chargers in their last seven meetings. The Broncos have won and covered in their last three trips to San Diego and four of the last five. Denver quarterback Peyton Manning was held without a touchdown pass against Buffalo on Sunday for the first time in 51 games.
KEY STATS
•SAN DIEGO is 50-28 UNDER at home versus division opponents since 1992.
•SAN DIEGO is 17-7 UNDER against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
•SAN DIEGO is 38-17 UNDER at home versus teams averaging >=350 yards/game since 1992.
•DENVER is 14-3 OVER after 3 or more consecutive wins over the L3 seasons.
•DENVER is 24-10 ATS in games played on a grass field over the L3 seasons.
•DENVER is 7-0 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the L2 seasons.
#329 SAN FRANCISCO @ #330 SEATTLE - 4:25 PM
The 49ers are coming off a 24-13 loss as an 8.5-point favorite in Oakland while the Seahawks won 24-14 in Philadelphia. These teams met on Thanksgiving and the Seahawks won 19-3 as one-point road underdogs. Seattle has won four of their last five games against San Francisco straight-up, and they’ve covered in seven straight in this head-to-head series. The Seahawks are also 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when facing the 49ers at CenturyLink Field since 2009. These are two of only three NFL defenses allowing an average of fewer than 310 total yards per game. CB Chris Culliver (knee) is questionable for the 49ers.
KEY STATS
•SAN FRANCISCO is 19-5 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992.
•SAN FRANCISCO is 10-0 ATS away off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992.
•SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the L2 seasons.
•SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS in home lined games over the L3 seasons.
•SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L3 seasons.
•SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS vs. teams averaging 24+ yards per kick return in 2nd half of year over L3 seasons.
#331 DALLAS @ #332 PHILADELPHIA - 8:30 PM
The Cowboys beat the Bears 41-28 in Chicago last Thursday behind DeMarco Murray’s 179 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Philadelphia, meanwhile, lost 24-14 as a one-point home underdog against the Seahawks. The Eagles embarrassed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, winning 33-10 as a three-point road underdog. The Cowboys have, however, been successful on the road in this head-to-head series, winning and covering in each of their last two trips to Philadelphia, both times by double-digits. Dallas has just one straight-up loss over its past five trips to Philadelphia since the start of the 2009 season.
KEY STATS
•DALLAS is 6-16 ATS away after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
•DALLAS is 3-16 ATS away versus teams allowing >=350 yards/game in 2nd half of season since 1992.
•DALLAS is 13-4 OVER away after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.
•PHILADELPHIA is 161-127 ATS against conference opponents since 1992.
•PHILADELPHIA is 27-13 ATS after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
•PHILADELPHIA is 40-24 ATS at home after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
Monday, 12/15/2014
#333 NEW ORLEANS @ #334 CHICAGO - 8:30 PM
Both teams come into this one off double-digit home losses, the Saints 41-10 to Carolina and the Bears by a 41-28 score against Dallas. The Saints have won and covered in both meetings with the Bears since 2011, the most recent being a 26-18 victory in Chicago last October. Prior to that triumph, however, the Bears had won three straight home games straight-up in Chicago versus New Orleans dating back to the NFC Championship Game in January 2007. The Saints have allowed over 32 points in each of their last three games; the Bears haven’t fared much better, allowing 34 or more in each of the last two.
KEY STATS
•NEW ORLEANS is 15-4 ATS away after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
•NEW ORLEANS is 13-2 UNDER versus teams allowing >=375 YPG in 2nd half of the season since 1992.
•NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season.
•CHICAGO is 11-1 OVER after playing a game at home over the L2 seasons.
•CHICAGO is 0-8 ATS vs. teams averaging 7+ pass YPA in the second half of season over L3 seasons.
•CHICAGO is 2-12 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game over the L3 seasons.
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