STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL STAT/SHEETS
SUNDAY NOVEMBER, 23rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #12 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NFL Betting News And Notes - Week #11
•Biggest Favorite To Cash: In a day where underdogs dominated, Green Bay (-4.5) helped bettors chasing in the late games. The Packers walloped the Philadelphia Eagles 53-20 in wire-to-wire fashion. Bookmakers have been getting beaten up by the infamous Green Bay-Over at Lambeau Field. This combination has gone 4-0-1 this season for bettors.
•Biggest Underdog To Cash: The Bengals (+8.5) defeated New Orleans 27-10 as road underdogs. Even though the Saints were 4-5 entering this game, they received a lot of public and sharp support. Cincinnati led 13-3 at halftime and outscored New Orleans 14-3 in the final two quarters. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton took a lot of heat in Week #10 after the club was embarrassed 24-3 at home. In this week’s win, Dalton was 16-of-22 for 220 yards and three touchdowns. Cincinnati was a 3/1 underdog on the money-line. The Rams (+8) also deserve attention too as they dominated the Broncos 22-7 at home. St. Louis harassed Peyton Manning all day long, sacking him twice and forcing two interceptions. Money-line backers cashed St. Louis as high as plus-375 underdogs.
•Home/Away: In the early games, home teams went 3-5 straight-up and 4-4 versus the spread. The lone hosts to cash tickets in the early games were the Bears, Chiefs and Rams. Despite losing 19-17 at home to the Atlanta Falcons, the Carolina Panthers managed to cover as 2 ½-point home underdogs. Meanwhile, the late games watched the host bounce back with a 3-0 straight-up and 2-1 against the spread mark. Including Thursday’s result, home teams went 7-6 both SU and ATS in the first 13 games.
•Hot Ant Not: The Chiefs started the season 0-2 and were decimated with injuries. Since the rough start, Kansas City has gone 7-1 both straight-up and versus the number, which includes its 24-20 win over Seattle this week. Coincidentally, the last team to beat New England was Kansas City. Since that setback, the Patriots have won six in a row (5-1 ATS) and five of those victories came by double digits. The Giants have dropped five straight, both SU and ATS. New York lost 16-10 on Sunday to San Francisco, which was the first setback during this skid that wasn’t decided by double digits.
•Totals: The Under went 7-1 in the first eight games on Sunday afternoon and all of the results were clear cut winners. The late games watched the Under go 2-1. Including the Bills-Dolphins outcome, the Under went 10-2 in Week #12. Notable streaks that were extended: The Browns have seen the Under cash in their last six games. Atlanta has seen the Under go a spotless 6-0 in its last six. The Under has cashed in four straight for Tampa Bay. Green Bay has seen the Over go 9-1 this season, seventh straight ticket cashing this weekend. The Patriots have seen the Over go 7-0 in their last seven games. The New England offense is averaging 36.5 PPG during this stretch.
Week #12 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#251 CLEVELAND @ #252 ATLANTA - 1:00 PM
The Browns are coming off a 23-7 home loss to Houston, which racked up 424 total yards with quarterback Ryan Mallett making his first NFL start and rookie Alfred Blue filling in for injured Arian Foster at running back. Cleveland is one of only three NFL teams that’s allowing an average of more than 140 rushing yards per game. Although Atlanta is the only team in the NFL giving up an average of more than 400 yards per game, the Falcons have played better since coming off their bye with back-to-back divisional road wins in which they gave up 17 points to both Tampa Bay and Carolina.
KEY STATS
•ATLANTA is 57-36 UNDER in November games since 1992.
•ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER after the first month of the season this season.
•ATLANTA is 2-16 ATS at home after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
•CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite since 1992.
•CLEVELAND is 13-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the L3 seasons.
•CLEVELAND is 8-0 UNDER when playing a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40%-49%) over L3 seasons.
#253 TENNESSEE @ #254 PHILADELPHIA - 1:00 PM
Tennessee heads into this one on a short week after losing 27-24 at home to the Steelers on Monday Night Football. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is coming off a 53-20 beatdown at the hands of the Packers in Green Bay. While these teams have allowed roughly the same amount of points through 10 games this season (the Eagles have given up 251, the Titans 250), Philadelphia comes into this one ranked fourth in the National Football League in scoring with an average of 29.9 points per game. Tennessee is one of only three teams, along with Jacksonville and Oakland, that’s averaging fewer than 17 points per game.
KEY STATS
•TENNESSEE is 16-6 ATS against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
•TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the L3 seasons.
•TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24+ points/game over the L3 seasons.
•PHILLY is 11-2 UNDER at home after 2 straight games where 50+ total points were scored since 1992.
•PHILADELPHIA is 33-13 UNDER after playing a game where 60+ total points were scored since 1992.
•PHILADELPHIA is 39-23 ATS at home after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
#255 DETROIT @ #256 NEW ENGLAND - 1:00 PM
While the Lions had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 14-6 loss in Arizona on Sunday, the Patriots dominated the Colts 42-20 in Indianapolis to win their sixth straight. RB Jonas Gray rushed for 199 yards and four touchdowns against the Colts but now faces the Lions’ top-ranked run defense, which is allowing just 68.8 rushing yards per game. New England has held two of the best offenses in football Denver and Indianapolis to just 21 and 20 points, respectively, over its past two games. 20.5 PPG the last two weeks. Detroit ranks 26th in the NFL in scoring, and only the Raiders average fewer rushing yards.
KEY STATS
•DETROIT is 4-18 ATS away after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
•DETROIT is 18-4 OVER away after 2 consecutive games with a TO margin of +1 or better since 1992.
•DETROIT is 0-10 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less TOs/game in 2nd half of season since 1992.
•NEW ENGLAND is 15-2 OVER at home after the first month of the season over the L3 seasons.
•NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 OVER at home vs. teams averaging 235+ passing yards/game. over L2 seasons.
•NEW ENGLAND is 18-3 OVER at home after gaining 450+ total yards in their last game since 1992.
#257 GREEN BAY @ #258 MINNESOTA - 1:00 PM
The Packers destroyed the Eagles 53-20 on Sunday afternoon while the Vikings lost 24-13 in Chicago. Green Bay has dominated this series recently, going 8-1-1 straight-up in the last 10 meetings and covering in seven of the past nine games in which quarterback Aaron Rodgers has played. This will be the second meeting of the 2014 season between the division rivals RB Eddie Lacy rushed for 105 yards and two touchdowns in the Packers’ 42-10 home victory on a Thursday Night Football in Week #5. Last season, Green Bay racked up 464 yards of total offense in a 44-31 victory in Minnesota.
KEY STATS
•GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS as a favorite this season.
•GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER as a favorite this season.
•GREEN BAY is 9-1 OVER in all lined games this season.
•MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER versus teams averaging >=6 yards/play over the L2 seasons.
•MINNESOTA is 8-0 OVER versus teams averaging 7.5+ passing yards/att. over the L3 seasons.
•MINNESOTA is 11-1 ATS at home vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992.
#259 JACKSONVILLE @ #260 INDIANAPOLIS - 1:00 PM
While Indianapolis is coming off a 42-20 home loss to the Patriots, the Jaguars fell 31-17 to the Cowboys in London prior to their Week #11 bye. The Colts have dominated this head-to-head series recently, going 4-0 both straight-up and against the spread while outscoring Jacksonville 138-40 over the teams’ past four meetings. The most recent of those was a 44-17 Indianapolis victory in Week #3, during which Quarterback Andrew Luck completed 31-of-39 passes for 370 yards and four touchdowns. Jaguars rookie QB Blake Bortles saw his first NFL action in that one, playing the entire second half and finishing with two touchdown passes and two interceptions.
KEY STATS
•JACKSONVILLE is 9-0 OVER away after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points over the L3 seasons.
•JACKSONVILLE is 1-10 ATS versus defenses allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the L3 seasons.
•JACKSONVILLE is 8-0 OVER away after scoring 7 points or less in 1st half in 2 straight over L3 seasons.
•INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS versus division opponents over the L2 seasons.
•INDIANAPOLIS is 28-7 OVER off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1992.
•INDIANAPOLIS is 11-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the L3 seasons.
#261 CINCINNATI @ #262 HOUSTON - 1:00 PM
The Bengals’ 27-10 road victory in New Orleans on Sunday was Cincinnati’s third straight-up victory in its last four games. The Texans, meanwhile, won 23-7 in Cleveland in Ryan Mallett’s debut as the Houston starter. These teams last met in the playoffs two seasons ago, when the Texans won 19-13 as four-point home favorites. That marked the fifth straight time that Houston had won-and-covered against the Bengals since the start of the 2008 season—the Texans have scored more than twice as many points as Cincinnati over those five meetings, outscoring the Bengals by a total score of 133-65.
KEY STATS
•CINCINNATI is 25-9 UNDER away vs. teams with comp pct. of 61%+ in 2nd half of season since 1992.
•CINCINNATI is 22-8 UNDER vs. DEF allowing 235+ pass yards/game in 2nd half of season since 1992.
•CINCINNATI is 24-9 ATS vs. DEF allowing 7+ passing yards/att. in 2nd half of the season since 1992.
•HOUSTON is 8-1 OVER off a road win over the L3 seasons.
•HOUSTON is 44-23 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
•HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the L2 seasons.
#263 NY JETS @ #264 BUFFALO - 1:00 PM
The Jets come into this one 1-4 both straight-up & versus the spread off their bye under head coach Rex Ryan, that includes last season’s 37-14 loss in Buffalo when New York had come out of its bye week with a 5-4 SU record. These teams met in Week #8, when the Bills won 43-23 as three-point road underdogs in New Jersey behind QB Kyle Orton’s 238 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions. Jets quarterbacks Michael Vick and Geno Smith each turned the ball over three times in that game, which is the last time the Bills won a game, Buffalo lost back-to-back games to Kansas City and Miami after its Week #9 bye.
KEY STATS
•NY JETS are 47-28 ATS away versus division opponents since 1992.
•NY JETS are 7-0 ATS away revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points since 1992.
•NY JETS are 36-20 UNDER away after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games since 1992.
•BUFFALO is 11-1 ATS off a road loss over the L3 seasons.
•BUFFALO is 21-7 OVER at home versus teams averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
•BUFFALO is 12-2 ATS home vs. teams who give up 24+ points/game in 2nd half of season since 1992.
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#265 TAMPA BAY @ #266 CHICAGO - 1:00 PM
The Buccaneers won 27-7 in Washington on Sunday and now face a Chicago squad that beat the Vikings 21-13 as a small home favorite. While the Bears are 3-1 straight-up & 2-2 versus the spread in the four games these teams have played against each other since 2005, the home team is 0-4 ATS in this head-to-head series over that span. These are two of the worst scoring defenses in the National Football League, with Tampa Bay ranked 30th in the league (27.9 PPG) and Chicago ranked last (29.0 PPG). Both teams are also toward the bottom of the NFL rankings in turnover margin, with the Buccaneers ranked 25th and Bears 26th in that category.
KEY STATS
•TAMPA BAY is 9-1 ATS in November games over the L3 seasons.
•TAMPA BAY is 66-38 UNDER away off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
•TAMPA BAY is 20-7 ATS away after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.
•CHICAGO is 0-8 ATS at home after 1 or more consecutive wins over the L3 seasons.
•CHICAGO is 2-12 ATS at home when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L3 seasons.
•CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS at home after 3 straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992.
#267 ARIZONA @ #268 SEATTLE - 4:05 PM
While Arizona maintained its status as the team with the National Football League’s best straight-up record with a 14-6 victory over the Lions with backup QB Drew Stanton under center on Sunday, Seattle lost 24-20 in Kansas City. The Cardinals are 3-2 both straight-up and against the spread over the past five meetings between these teams, the last of which was a 17-10 victory at CenturyLink Field last December in what was Seattle’s only home loss of the 2013 season. Arizona held Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson to just 108 passing yards and a touchdown while picking him off once in that game. The Cardinals boast the NFL’s third-best rushing defense at 80.5 yards per game.
KEY STATS
•ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS against conference opponents this season.
•ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
•ARIZONA is 11-1 ATS vs. defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the L2 seasons.
•PETE CARROLL is 16-2 OVER at home in November games.
•SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the L3 seasons.
•SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the L3 seasons.
#269 ST LOUIS @ #270 SAN DIEGO - 4:05 PM
In winning their third game this season against teams that played in the conference championship games last season, the Rams kept the Broncos from ever running a play inside the red zone in a 22-7 win on Sunday, Denver’s only touchdown came on a 42-yard pass on a blown coverage to wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, and the deepest they advanced otherwise was the Rams’ 28-yard line. The Chargers were far less impressive in a 13-6 victory over the Raiders. Quarterback Philip Rivers has been dealing with bruised ribs the past few weeks and his offense has just one touchdown over San Diego’s last two games.
KEY STATS
•ST LOUIS is 10-25 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
•ST LOUIS is 23-45 ATS away off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
•ST LOUIS is 4-15 ATS away versus teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since 1992.
•SAN DIEGO is 79-55 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
•SAN DIEGO is 51-30 OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
•SAN DIEGO is 25-12 UNDER at home after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
#271 MIAMI @ #272 DENVER - 4:25 PM
The Dolphins held the Bills to 237 yards of total offense in a 22-9 home win on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos, meanwhile, lost in St. Louis 22-7, marking only the second time with quarterback Peyton Manning that they’d scored fewer than 20 points. Tim Tebow was under center for Denver the last time these teams met, which was in an 18-15 Broncos win in Miami. Denver had been 1-5 straight-up and 0-6 versus the spread against the Dolphins in the teams’ prior six meetings since the start of the 1999 season. Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders (concussion) and TE Julius Thomas (ankle) are both questionable.
KEY STATS
•MIAMI is 61-27 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
•MIAMI is 10-1 UNDER after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the L3 seasons.
•MIAMI is 15-3 UNDER vs. poor passing defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over L3 seasons.
•DENVER is 20-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
•DENVER is 9-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the L3 seasons.
•DENVER is 8-0 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the L3 seasons.
#273 WASHINGTON @ #274 SAN FRANCISCO - 4:25 PM
The Redskins lost 27-7 at home to a struggling Buccaneers team on Sunday and now face a San Francisco squad that won its second straight game with 16-10 victory over the New York Giants in New Jersey. The 49ers have gotten the better of this head-to-head series, winning three straight games straight-up and 14 of the last 19 dating all the way back to 1981. San Francisco is 2-0-1 versus the spread against Washington since the start of the 2008 season, which includes a 27-6 blowout of the Redskins in Washington in a Monday night game last November. San Francisco nose tackle Glenn Dorsey (biceps) could suit up for the first time this season.
KEY STATS
•WASHINGTON is 70-43 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
•WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS after allowing 6+ yards/play in their previous game over the L2 seasons.
•WASHINGTON is 16-4 UNDER vs. teams with 32+ possession minutes/game after 8+ games since 1992.
•JIM HARBAUGH is 32-18 ATS as a favorite.
•SAN FRANCISCO is 40-24 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992.
•SAN FRANCISCO is 13-3 ATS versus teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the L3 seasons.
#275 DALLAS @ #276 NY GIANTS - 8:30 PM
While the Cowboys rested during their Week #11 bye, the Giants suffered a 16-10 home loss to the 49ers as quarterback Eli Manning threw five interceptions. Dallas QB Tony Romo threw for 279 yards with three touchdowns and just one interception in the Cowboys’ 31-21 home victory over the Giants in Week #7. The Cowboys have won and covered in three straight and four of the last five of this head-to-head series. Since 2009, the home team is 4-7 straight-up and against the spread in this series. Four straight games and eight of the last 10 overall have gone Over the total when these teams have played.
KEY STATS
•DALLAS is 14-27 ATS away off a non-conference game since 1992.
•DALLAS is 2-15 ATS away versus teams allowing >=350 yards/game in 2nd half of season since 1992.
•DALLAS is 1-9 ATS versus teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play in 2nd half of season over the L3 seasons.
•NY GIANTS are 30-58 ATS in November games since 1992.
•NY GIANTS are 21-7 UNDER at home versus teams with 32+ possession minutes/game since 1992.
•NY GIANTS are 35-19 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.
Monday, 11/24/2014
#277 BALTIMORE @ #278 NEW ORLEANS - 8:30 PM
The Ravens come off their bye week to take on a New Orleans team that coming off a 27-10 home loss to the Bengals. Baltimore had been 5-0 both straight-up and versus the number when coming off a bye under head coach John Harbaugh until suffering a 24-18 loss in Cleveland after last season’s bye. The Saints have lost two straight home games straight-up and against the spread, and against Cincinnati they were held to three points in the first half at home for the first time since 2010 Week #8 against the Steelers. New Orleans safety Rafael Bush (leg) and WR Brandin Cooks (thumb) will both miss this one after getting injured in the final five minutes of the loss to Cincinnati.
KEY STATS
•BALTIMORE is 60-40 UNDER off a home win since 1992.
•BALTIMORE is 11-2 UNDER after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1992.
•BALTIMORE is 10-2 UNDER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the L3 seasons.
•NEW ORLEANS is 6-18 ATS against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
•NEW ORLEANS is 0-8 ATS at home off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite since 1992.
•NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS at home after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over L3 seasons.
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