Service Plays Sunday 11/1/15

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NFL Norm Hitzger
DOUBLE PLAYS:

  • New Orleans -3 NY Giants
  • St. Louis -8 San Francisco
SINGLE PLAYS:
  • Seattle -6 Dallas
  • Minnesota +1 Chicago
  • Jets -3 Oakland
  • Denver +2 1/2 Green Bay
 
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Jason Sample:
Packers -2.5

Bears/Vikings O42.5 (2x)

Giants/Saints U49

Colts +7 (-120)

Falcons -7

Bears +7 / Giants +10 / Browns +14 (+142) 7TR
Bears +7 / Giants +10 / Falcons -1 (+142) 7TR
Giants +10 / Browns +14 / Falcons -1 (+142) 7TR
Giants +10 / Falcons -1 / Packers +4.5 (+142) 7TR
 

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cowherd blazin 5

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Hilton Contest / Week 8
=========================


Week 8 Super Contest NFL Picks By Most Contestants
(3-2 Last Week, 21-12-2 ATS YTD)


1 Arizona -5 By 538
2 NY Jets -2.5 By 530
3 Green Bay -3 By 511
4 Chicago +1.5 By 499
5 Denver +3 By 47


======================


Top Contestant
(28-6-1)


Week 8: ATL NOR CINCY OAK INDY
 
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Prediction Machine's top 4 NFL


261 1:00 PM ARI @ CLE -4.5 8.0 58.7 lock
259 1:00 PM SF @ STL 8.5 -5.5 58.6
255 1:00 PM TB @ ATL 7 -4.0 57.7

274 8:30 PM @DEN GB 3 0.4 57. straight up win possible
 
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Joe Gavazzi

NFL WEEK 8
ECONOMY CLUB
By: Joe Gavazzi, Winning Sports Advice

Sunday, November 1, 2015

NFL STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK… Minnesota Vikings (+1-)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-1-) 1:00 EST
First of all, I must apologize for last Sunday when our plan for a 6% selection on these Vikings was disrupted by news that star Vikings RB Peterson was suffering from an “undisclosed illness.” The later rumor was that he had swallowed chewing tobacco on the flight. I subsequently reduced the rating on the game to “only a 5%” then watched as Peterson played as if he was in full health, led the Vikings to an overland advantage against Detroit of 35/140 to 17/77, and the Vikings cruised to a 28-19 victory. That has lifted the Vikings’ recent run to 13-3 ATS. It is based on the fact that second year HC Zimmer is winning NFL games the old fashioned way, with a ground game averaging 30/128/4.3 and a defense allowing just 17 PPG. Look for them again to have their way, overland, against a Chicago Bear defensive front allowing 125/4.5. The Bears are rebuilding under first year HC Fox and DC Fangio. They do have the #10 yardage defense in the league at 345 YPG, but other indiscretions mean they are allowing 30 PPG, tied for the worst defensive number in the league. The Bears still carry the albatross that is QB Cutler, and negative point spread records that show them to be 6-14 ATS in divisional play recently, and 10-18 ATS as dog. Last time the Bears lined up they lost 37-34 to Detroit, affording the Lions their only victory of the season. Yes, that would be the same Lions team that Minnesota easily handled last week.


NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK… Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7-)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7-) 1:00 EST
Atlanta could only squeeze out a 10-7 victory at Tennessee last week, but it was enough to keep the public entrenched on the side of a team who has made the NFL’s biggest improvement this season. A 6-10 SU team of last year has emerged with a 6-1 SU mark to open 2015. New HC Quinn is at the controls, with QB Ryan and RB Freeman authoring an offense that averages 28 PPG and 403 YPG. The public also may remember that it was on a Thursday night game last year that the Falcons led the Bucs 56-0. A few think the public are the only ones who remember that. Be assured that it is entrenched in the minds of all the players who were on each of these teams last season. Despite last week’s 31-30 defeat, the Bucs are likely to enter today’s game with some confidence. They outrushed Washington 30/190 to 19/50, and outgained them 479-355, in a 0 net turnover game. The Bucs actually led the contest 24-0 before succumbing to the inability to handle a big lead. It should not be lost on those analyzing this game that this year’s Tampa Bay OC Koetter held the same position for Atlanta in the three previous years. Yes, he will be in QB Ryan’s head. Bucs have already won as many games this season as last (2). Despite the 2-4 SU record, they are outrushing foes 364-328, and outgaining them 6.0 to 5.4 YP play. With a ground game that is at least the equal of the Falcons at 30/134, it will be little surprise to this bureau if the Bucs make a game of this, with the ability to steal one down the stretch. That would mean it was “lesson learned” from last week.


NFL PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME OF THE WEEK… Denver Broncos (+3)
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Denver Broncos 8:30 EST
Apparently the public believes that the only two players on this field will be Green Bay QB Rodgers and Denver QB Manning. And with the help of ESPN and other media outlets, we all know what that perception is. Green Bay QB Rodgers is in his prime, completing 68% with a 15/2 ratio. Denver’s aging QB Manning is completing just 62% of his passes, with a 7/10 ratio. In addition, the public knows that Green Bay has outscored Denver by an average of 33-13 in their three previous meetings. Both teams are rested, a situation that has been a positive for each. Green Bay is 9-1 ATS following a bye, while the Broncos are 14-3 SU ATS home following a bye. Those perceptions aside, there are some very true realities in this game. First and foremost is that the Broncos are allowing a league low 17 PPG, 281 YPG, and only 4.5 YP play. It’s never easy to fade the #1 defense in the league when they are an underdog. Secondly, is the strong home field of the Broncos, which finds them to be 24-2 SU the last 3+ years since QB Manning has resurrected his career in the Mile High city. Yet the perception continues to dominate the betting line, leaving us with the Denver Broncos as a 3 point home dog, with an undefeated record on a strong home field with the best defense in the league. I guess we’ll just have to settle for that.
 
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Top NFL Public Bets

#1 261 Arizona Cardinals 84%
#2 269 New York Jets 76%
#3 273 Green Bay Packers 75%
#4 271 Seattle Seahawks 74%
#5 253 Minnesota Vikings 70%
#6 256 Atlanta Falcons 69%
#7 263 Cincinnati Bengals 65%
#8 251 Detroit Lions 60%
#9 260 St. Louis Rams 58%
#10 276 Carolina Panthers 58%
 

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