JEFF BENTON - comp play:
Plain and simple, and you cannot lay points with the Broncos right now. Hell, you can’t even take points with the Broncos right now. I learned that the hard way two Mondays ago, when I backed Denver as a three-point underdog at New England and watched as Mike Shanahan’s clan of underachievers got drilled 41-7, never even coming close to competing in the contest. Not only has Denver failed to cover a spread in six straight games (0-5-1 ATS), but it is now 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 games overall. Not only that, but the Broncos are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 home games, including 2-12 ATS in their last 14 as a home favorite. The last time Denver played a home game, it lost 24-17 to Jacksonville as a 3 ½-point home favorite – my Best Bet that day was on the Jaguars, and the final score was very misleading as the Broncos got outgained 416-323.
Now, you could argue that those incredibly lengthy trends have been factored into this pointspread, and that’s probably true. Even still, it’s obvious halfway through the season that the Miami Dolphins are vastly improved football team compared with the version that went 1-15 a year ago. Miami was quite impressive in last week’s 25-16 victory over the 5-1 Bills, outscoring Buffalo 18-0 down the stretch.
Since starting the season with consecutive losses, Miami is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. That includes a 38-13 rout of the Patriots in New England – the same place were Denver went last week and lost by 34!
Bottom line: As I said when I backed the Jaguars against Denver three weeks ago, the Broncos in the last several years have not fared well against physical teams. Well, this Miami squad was built by Bill Parcells – ‘nuff said! Throw in the fact that Miami is 18-9-1 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog outside of the AFC East and has cashed in five straight meetings against the Broncos (winning four of those games outright), and I’ll gladly take the points here.
(based on a 1 to a 10 ♦ Rating)
5♦ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Plain and simple, and you cannot lay points with the Broncos right now. Hell, you can’t even take points with the Broncos right now. I learned that the hard way two Mondays ago, when I backed Denver as a three-point underdog at New England and watched as Mike Shanahan’s clan of underachievers got drilled 41-7, never even coming close to competing in the contest. Not only has Denver failed to cover a spread in six straight games (0-5-1 ATS), but it is now 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 games overall. Not only that, but the Broncos are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 home games, including 2-12 ATS in their last 14 as a home favorite. The last time Denver played a home game, it lost 24-17 to Jacksonville as a 3 ½-point home favorite – my Best Bet that day was on the Jaguars, and the final score was very misleading as the Broncos got outgained 416-323.
Now, you could argue that those incredibly lengthy trends have been factored into this pointspread, and that’s probably true. Even still, it’s obvious halfway through the season that the Miami Dolphins are vastly improved football team compared with the version that went 1-15 a year ago. Miami was quite impressive in last week’s 25-16 victory over the 5-1 Bills, outscoring Buffalo 18-0 down the stretch.
Since starting the season with consecutive losses, Miami is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. That includes a 38-13 rout of the Patriots in New England – the same place were Denver went last week and lost by 34!
Bottom line: As I said when I backed the Jaguars against Denver three weeks ago, the Broncos in the last several years have not fared well against physical teams. Well, this Miami squad was built by Bill Parcells – ‘nuff said! Throw in the fact that Miami is 18-9-1 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog outside of the AFC East and has cashed in five straight meetings against the Broncos (winning four of those games outright), and I’ll gladly take the points here.
(based on a 1 to a 10 ♦ Rating)
5♦ MIAMI DOLPHINS
