Mike O'Connor :
INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) 26 Cincinnati 20
Sun Jan-04-2015 at 10:05 AM Pacific Rotation: 108 Over/Under 49.5
Indianapolis hasn’t played real well down the stretch and they could have their hands full in this game against a good Bengals team that will be looking for revenge for their embarrassing 0-27 loss in Indy back in Week 7 while attempting to exercise their playoff demons (0-3 SU with Andy Dalton). In fact, teams that have been blown out in a regular season meeting by 21 or more points are just 27-37 SU when they get a rematch in the playoffs according to The Elias Sports Bureau. Cincinnati isn’t the same team that the Colts faced back then with a more stable defense that has performed much better against the run (allowing 82 rushing yards per game at 3.8 ypr their last seven games) and a ground game that has picked it up behind the running of Jeremy Hill (1,124 yards at 5.1 ypr with most of that compiled after given the lion’s share of the workload beginning in Week 9).
The big question on offense for the Bengals in this game is in regards to AJ Green. As of Friday, it didn’t look good as he was listed as doubtful after not practicing on Friday. Dalton already has a very thin receiving group with Dane Sanzenbacher and rookie James Wright out for Sunday’s game and with tight end Jermaine Gresham nursing an injured back and questionable, the Bengals passing game could really be in trouble if Green can’t suit up. Quarterback Andy Dalton can certainly use all the help he can get with playoff struggles that are well documented (0-3 SU with one touchdown and six interceptions) and in their previous meeting this season, Green didn’t play and Dalton was held to just 126 passing yards at 3.3 yps. Without reliable receiving weapons and a shaky quarterback, the Colts defense will focus on stopping the run and will commit to doing whatever it takes to not let Jeremy Hill beat them. If the Bengals can’t keep them honest with the pass due to their skeleton receiving crew, the Colts should have success. Since getting blasted by the Patriots on the ground back in Week 11, the Colts have buckled down and allowed just 3.9 ypr the past six games. Overall, the Colts defense is about average from an adjusted efficiency perspective but they have performed well on third down (2nd best with a 33% opponent conversion rate).
On the other side, I expect that Indianapolis will play to their strengths offensively and likely implement a pass first approach as a result. Their running game has been below average since losing running back Ahmad Bradshaw in week 11 against the Patriots and they’ll run enough to keep the Bengals honest but not much more in a bad ground match-up. Trent Richardson only averages 3.3 ypr so I’d expect to see more of Dan Herron (4.5 ypr) in this game but the offensive line has been shuffled all year and will start their 11th different combination of the season after placing right tackle Gosder Cherilus on season-ending injured reserve this week. Indianapolis will have to rely on their very good passing attack (averaging 306 yards at 7.1 yps against teams that allow 243 yards at 6.4 yps) but they’ll face a good pass defending team in the Bengals that allows 6.2 yps to teams that gain 6.6 yps on average. The key for the Bengals will be to generate a pass rush but they have had difficulty in that area this season. If they can’t get any pressure on Luck, it could be a long day for the Bengals defense.
Luck has been very good at home in his career (17-6 ATS) while Dalton has struggled in the spotlight. Not just in primetime games or the postseason where he is 3-10 SU. He has struggled against good competition on the road overall in his career (teams >.500) with a 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS record. The Colts qualify in a good 18-4 playoff situation that is 11-0 in the Wild Card round and my model favors them in this spot by 6.8 points but Cincinnati qualifies in a 143-69-7 statistical match-up situation that is 3-0 in the playoffs. Bottom line is I think that it’s going to be difficult for the Bengals to keep pace without their receivers as the Colts stack the box and focus on the run, making scoring difficult. On the other side, if the Bengals can’t generate a pass rush, it’s going to be tough to stop Andrew Luck and the Indy offense. Plus, the Indy special teams have a decided advantage. It’s a pass for me with a lean to the Colts.
DALLAS (-6.5) 29 Detroit 18
Sun Jan-04-2015 at 01:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 102 Over/Under 48.5
The Lions have not been very good this season away from the friendly confines of Ford Field as they are 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS away from home, losing by an average score of 15.6 – 19.6. When looking just at playoff teams that they have faced on the road (Carolina, Arizona, New England and Green Bay), the Lions are 0-4 SU and ATS, losing by an average score of 10.5 -25.5 and have scored less than ten points in three of those contests. Despite having talent, their offense has been a real problem this year and has consistently underperformed. Overall, the Lions are averaging 5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.7 yppl and have been below average both the running and passing the ball. Detroit hasn’t had much of a ground game this season #30 ranking (averaging 90 yards at 3.8 ypr against teams that allow 116 yards at 4.5 ypr) but they have been better lately. They’ll face a Dallas rush defense that is about average overall (allowing 4.3 ypr to teams that gain 4.3 ypr) but has played really well the past four weeks in allowing an average of 54 rush yards at 3.1 ypr. Detroit will need to get their ground game going to help open up a good match-up against a Dallas pass defense that has allowed 6.9 yps against teams that gain 6.4 yps. What concerns me here for Detroit is that Stafford has been terrible on the road this season, averaging 205 passing yards at 5.4 yps against teams that allow 240 yards at 6.6 yps. In addition, the Lions are 0-17 on the road against teams that finished the season with a winning record in games that Stafford has started in his career (including postseason).
On the other side, the Cowboys have my #5 rated offense that has been very good both on the ground (+.4 ypr) and in the air (+.8 yps). They face a tough match-up against a Lions defense that has also been very good (ranked #2 and allowing 301 yards at 4.9 yppl against teams that gain 346 yards at 5.5 yppl) but haven’t been quite the same on the road this season in allowing 5.2 ypr to teams that gain 5.6 yppl. The key match-up in this game is the Cowboys #2 ranked rush offense taking on the Lions #1 rush defense and whomever wins that war could very well win this game. Overall, the Cowboys offense has been on fire recently and have put up an average of 41 points on offense the last four games. With the Lions struggles on the road both this season and historically, I have a hard time seeing their offense being able to keep up.
There is a coaching angle that probably extends both ways in this game to some degree as former Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan (2009-2013 with Detroit and now play caller and passing game coordinator for the Cowboys) may have some good insights into how to best defend not only Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, but also how to best attack the Lions defensive personnel. On the other side, while the Lions may have some familiarity having faced Linehan’s offense in practice the past five years, this Cowboys system is not quite the same - it’s a mix of Jason Garrett’s offense with some of Linehan’s wrinkles. Overall I think it’s a slight advantage for the Cowboys.
I like the Cowboys in this game as my model favors them by 9.4 points and they benefit from several different playoff situations that play against the Lions that are 27-49-1, 19-40-1, and 8-24. Dallas also qualifies in a small 5-1 situation that plays on certain teams with better pass offenses but the Cowboys qualify in a negative 5-13 playoff situation with a 0-5 subset that plays against them. I think that Detroit has been a bit overrated this season, playing a soft schedule overall and producing a 1-4 SU and ATS record against >.500 competition (their only win was at home against the Packers in Week 3 when the Packers were struggling early). Dallas has fared better with a 3-2 SU and ATS record against >.500 competition with one of their losses against the Cardinals with Brandon Weeden at quarterback. In this round of the playoffs, the winner of the game has a 96-11-3 ATS record (since 1983) and since 2008 that record is 19-0-1 ATS. If you can pick the winner of the game chances are good that you have the ATS winner as well. I like the Cowboys to win and cover but it’s not strong enough for me to pull the trigger on.
