STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/26/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 1/26/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Sunday's Notebook
•NC State/Georgia Tech are both 2-4 in ACC play, Wolfpack won its last three games with Georgia Tech by 9-13-13 points. Tech lost three of its last four visits to Raleigh, losing by 5-5-13. State is turning ball over 19.9% of time, making 25.7% from arc in Atlantic Coast Conference, both 14th in 15-team ACC. This is first time this season State is favored in league. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-6 against the spread.
•Evansville won three of last four games with Bradley, winning last three played at Ford Center by 3-23-10 points; they're 2-5 in Missouri Valley Conference, with last four tilts all decided by 6 or less points. Braves are 1-2 as MVC road dogs, losing all three games by 34-3-22 points- they won last two home games after 1-4 conference start. MVC home favorites are 11-7 versus spread, 1-3 if laying 5 or less points. Aces are 2-5 despite making 41.9% of its 3's.
•Houston has won 12 of last 15 games with SMU, winning last three by 3-11-4 points; they're 3-1 at home in American Athletic Conference, with only loss by point to Cincinnati- they beat Connecticut here. SMU covered its last five games, won last three by 17-12-14 points; they're 1-2 on AAC road, winning by 12 at UCF, losing at Cincinnati/Louisville. AAC home underdogs of 7 or less points are 1-4 against the spread.
•Illinois lost last five games, is 0-3 on Big Dozen road (1-1 as road dog), losing by 25-2-7 points. Indiana (+3) lost 83-80 in OT at Illinois New Years Eve, despite making 10-23 from arc; they turned ball over 23 times (-13). Erratic Hoosiers are 2-4 in league, 1-2 at home. Home teams won last six series games; Illini lost last two visits to Assembly Hall, by 3-13 points. Big Dozen single digit home favorites are 1-10 versus spread.
•Cincinnati is 7-0 in American Athletic Conference; underdogs covered all three of their road tilts, with Bearcats winning by 16-1-7 points; they beat Temple 69-58 (-15) at home 12 days ago, game Owls led by hoop with 6:47 left. Bearcats won its last 11 games, Temple lost its last seven; Owls lost by 7-10 in their two AAC home games, allowing 80.5 ppg. AAC home underdogs are 5-7 versus spread. Cincy blocks 18.3% of shots, forces TOs 23.3% of time.
•USC got first Pac-12 win last game after five losses by 18+ points; they swept Stanford last year by total of 3 points. Cardinal lost seven of last eight visits to Galen Center, winning by 12 in 2012. Trojans lost by 19-20 to Arizona schools in their other home games, but whipped California last game. Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-5 versus spread. Stanford won three of last four, but is 1-2 on Pac-12 road, with only win by a hoop at Oregon.
•Minnesota guard Hollins (ankle) is out here, blow for Gopher squad that is 1-2 on Big Dozen road, with only win at Penn State. Nebraska upset Ohio State in last home game but then laid an egg at Penn State, so they remain suspect. Big Dozen home teams are 7-15 versus spread in games with single digit spread. Gophers won four of last five games with Nebraska, but lost last visit here in Lincoln 53-51 last year.
•Clemson is 0-56 in Chapel Hill, 0-56, with last seven losses at Dean E. Smith Center all by 10+ points (103-93 in two OTs in '08). Tigers had won three in row but lost last game by 33 at Pittsburgh- they won other two Atlantic Coast Conference road tilts. UNC is 1-4 in ACC (0-5 versus spread), its only win was by 11 over Boston College. Tar Heels are last in ACC at putting its opponents on foul line. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 7-8 against the spread.
•Oregon lost last five games, allowing 87.6 ppg after 13-0 start, amidst rumors they've got chemistry issues; Ducks won last five games against Washington State, winning in Pullman by 2 in OT LY. Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-5 versus spread. Cougars are 1-6 with star Lacy out (appendicitis/ribs), losing at home by 1-11 points, with 49-46 win over Utah. We look at nine categories on offense in Pac-12; Washington State is 12th in seven of the nine.
•California looked comatose in loss at USC Wednesday, its first loss after five league wins; Bears won SU as road dogs at Stanford/Oregon, are 6-2 in last eight games with UCLA, splitting last four visits to Pauley Pavilion. Pac-12 home favorites are 16-10 versus spread. Favorites covered UCLA's first four tilts in Pac-12; Bruins are 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 34-15-17 points, losing only to Arizona. Cal is making 42.5% of its 3's in Pac-12 games.
•Fairfield is 1-8 in Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference but covered three of last four games; they are 5-1 in last six games with Siena, winning last three by 8-10-22, but those Stags aren't these Stags. Fairfield upset Manhattan in its last home game after losing first three by 11-1-4 points. MAAC home teams are 7-1 versus spread in games where spread was less than 3 points. Siena is 1-3-1 as a MAAC road underdog, losing last four road games by 15-4-22-14.
•Iona won four of last five games after beating Quinnipiac Friday; Gaels won six of last eight games with St Peter's, winning three of last four in this gym (by 4-14-24) but losing 64-62 LY. MAAC home underdogs of 4+ points are 2-5 versus spread. Peacocks are 1-2 as home dogs, upsetting Quinnipiac in last home game, losing by 12-4 to Manhattan/Canisius in first two. St Peter's is holding MAAC opponents to 27.9% on arc.
•Quinnipac (even) beat Manhattan 81-76 Jan 9, but they lost last two on road since then, by 7-22 points. Bobcats were 31-46 on foul line in first meeting (Jaspers were 14-28), blocked 10 shots. MAAC home favorites of 9+ points are 9-6 versus spread. Manhattan won 11 of last 13 overall, is 3-2 as MAAC home favorite, winning at home by 9-26-7-22-16 points. Quinnipiac is 0-2 as a MAAC underdog, losing by 12-22 points.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- NC STATE is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
The average score was NC STATE 76.1, OPPONENT 61.4.
-- CINCINNATI is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 68.2, OPPONENT 55.2.
-- ST PETERS is 0-11 (-12.1 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing only their 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST PETERS 23.5, OPPONENT 32.7.
-- S FLORIDA is 19-1 UNDER (+17.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog or pick versus the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 23.3, OPPONENT 27.4.
-- TIM MILES is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival as the coach of NEBRASKA.
The average score was MILES 59.6, OPPONENT 62.8.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- UTAH is 13-0 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 62.7, OPPONENT 62.9.
-- CINCINNATI is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 65.8, OPPONENT 54.6.
-- MASSACHUSETTS is 12-2 against the 1rst half line (+9.8 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MASSACHUSETTS 38.5, OPPONENT 33.6.
-- ILLINOIS is 19-2 UNDER (+16.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ILLINOIS 27.7, OPPONENT 30.7.
-- JAMES DICKEY is 9-29 ATS (-22.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was DICKEY 64.1, OPPONENT 77.2.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ILLINOIS) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(65-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +36.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (38-55 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 68.2, Opponent 70.5 (Average point differential = -2.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 33 (37.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-9).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (153-148).
--Play On - Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (KENT ST) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.
(40-14 since 1997.) (74.1%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (3-53)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.2
The average score in these games was: Team 65.5, Opponent 75 (Average point differential = -9.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22 (39.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 6 or more points versus the first half line (CANISIUS) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games.
(28-5 since 1997.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 9.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.4, Opponent 36 (Average first half point differential = -5.6)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
-- Play Against - Home favorites versus the 1rst half line (TOLEDO) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=45% on the season, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite.
(44-12 since 1997.) (78.6%, +30.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.3, Opponent 32.2 (Average first half point differential = -1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#819 GEORGIA TECH @ #820 N CAROLINA ST
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: N Carolina St. -5, Total: N/A) - Teams looking to get back into the ACC race square off Sunday when Georgia Tech visits North Carolina State. The Yellow Jackets have struggled in league play due to injuries, which have limited the team to nine scholarship players throughout conference play. The team has been hit hardest up front, with Robert Carter Jr., the team's leading rebounder (9.3) and third-leading scorer (10.3) out indefinitely with a knee injury.
The Wolfpack is feeling better about itself after snapping a three-game losing streak last time out. Still, coach Mark Gottfried is looking for more consistency on the defensive end, where North Carolina State gives up 69.2 points per game, good for 13th in the 15-team ACC. Neither team has been sterling on defense, with the Yellow Jackets giving up 66.7 points per game.
•ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (11-8 SU, 6-7-0 ATS, 2-4 ACC): Coach Brian Gregory is trying to make sure his team doesn't get down despite a number of injuries that have left the team shorthanded. Gregory has been pushing his team to stay aggressive rather than assume the personnel shortage is going to lead to losses. “I told the guys, 'If you're going to go down, you've got to go down swinging,'” Gregory told the Associated Press. “We're a little bit undermanned right now with the injuries and different things. We can't play on our heels.”
•ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (12-7 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 2-4 ACC): Gottfried feels his team, which starts two freshmen and a sophomore, has a lot of room for development. The Wolfpack are gaining great experience. “We've got these young guys and they are going to get better as they get older,” Gottfried told the Raleigh News & Observer. “The most important thing for our guys is, regardless of win or lose, is to keep competing all the time.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Georgia Tech has split its last eight ACC road games after winning just three times in its previous 36 ACC road contests.... North Carolina State ranks last in the ACC in 3-point percentage at .288, just behind Georgia Tech, which shoots 30.3 percent from beyond the arc.... In the teams' last two meetings in Raleigh, they've combined for 306 points (153 in each contest), compared to the 240 points they combined for in the last two meetings in Atlanta.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NC STATE covered the spread 532 times, while GEORGIA TECH covered the spread 446 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, NC STATE won the game straight up 671 times, while GEORGIA TECH won 305 times. In 1000 simulated games, NC STATE covered the first half line 512 times, while GEORGIA TECH covered the first half line 488 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NC STATE is 19-10 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH since 1997.
--NC STATE is 20-10 straight up against GEORGIA TECH since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--NC STATE is 17-10 versus the first half line when playing against GEORGIA TECH since 1997.
--11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Yellow Jackets are 5-15-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
--Yellow Jackets are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in N.C. State.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in N.C. State.
--Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--GT is 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.
--Under is 7-2-1 in GT last 10 overall.
--Under is 7-3 in GT last 10 Sun. games.
--NCST is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--Under is 6-2 in NCST last 8 overall.
--Under is 10-4 in NCST last 14 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#821 S FLORIDA @ #822 MEMPHIS
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: Memphis -17, Total: N/A) - No. 22 Memphis looks for a third straight win in a visit to Tampa on Sunday to take on South Florida in AAC play. The Tigers used a date with Division II Le Moyne-Owen last weekend to snap a two-game home losing streak and followed up by crushing Houston on Thursday. Getting back on track has Memphis feeling good, according to coach Josh Pastner, who said, "When you lose at home, or any loss, it kills you inside. A win, on the other hand... There is no better feeling than the thrill of victory."
The Bulls started 9-4 but hit a rut at the start of conference play, losing four of their first five AAC games. Following its first conference win at Temple Jan. 9, South Florida has taken it on the chin in three straight, losing by an average of 21 points, including an 86-47 drubbing to No. 9 Louisville last time out. "You can't play the jerseys," coach Stan Heath said after the latest shellacking. "You have to play the guys inside the jerseys and we were just kind of mesmerized."
•ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (10-9 SU, 6-10-0 ATS, 1-5 AAC): Senior forward Victor Rudd said the team is eager to redeem itself at Memphis. South Florida's 47 points last Wednesday were its fewest in any game this season and the Bulls need to clean things up after committing a season-high 23 turnovers. Rudd is South Florida's leading scorer, averaging 14.8 points, and Corey Allen Jr. adds 10.7 per game.
•ABOUT MEMPHIS (14-4 SU, 9-6-0 ATS, 4-2 AAC): The Tigers were led by their top two scorers in the win over Houston, as Shaq Goodwin and Joe Jackson combined for 38 points. Jackson's 14.1 points per game paces the Memphis offense, and Goodwin contributes 13.2 while leading the conference and ranking 16th in the nation in field goal percentage (62.9). With a scoring average of 80.8 points per game, the Tigers trail only Louisville (83.2) among AAC teams and rank 25th nationally.
•PREGAME NOTES: Memphis leads the all-time series against South Florida 19-3 and has rolled off six consecutive wins, including this season's 88-73 decision in Tampa on New Year's Eve.... After No. 16 Cincinnati, No. 9 Louisville and now No. 22 Memphis, the Bulls are wrapping up their first stretch of three consecutive ranked opponents since an 0-3 run against Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Georgetown in February 2011.... The Tigers' 169 wins at FedEx Forum since 2004-05 are the most home wins in the country in that span.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, S FLORIDA covered the spread 555 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 398 times. *EDGE against the spread =S FLORIDA. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 852 times, while S FLORIDA won 131 times. In 1000 simulated games, S FLORIDA covered the first half line 611 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 389 times. *EDGE against first half line =S FLORIDA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MEMPHIS is 13-5 against the spread versus S FLORIDA since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 16-3 straight up against S FLORIDA since 1997.
--4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 12-7 versus the first half line when playing against S FLORIDA since 1997.
--5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulls are 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
--Road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--USF is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Sun. games.
--Under is 48-19-1 in USF last 68 overall.
--Under is 40-17 in USF last 57 road games.
--MEM is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--MEM is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.
--Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 home games.
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#829 SMU @ #830 HOUSTON
(TV: 3:00 PM EST, ESPNews - Line: SMU -3.5, Total: N/A) - Southern Methodist looks to win its fifth game in a row when it hits the road to face Houston on Sunday in an American Athletic Conference clash. The Mustangs have won five of their last six contests, including a 70-56 victory over Rutgers on Wednesday as they continue their quest to make their first NCAA tournament appearance since 1993. "It's right there for us to do," coach Larry Brown said. "As long as we defend, rebound and share the ball, I think we'll put ourselves in a position one way or another."
Houston hopes to bounce back from an 82-59 loss to Memphis on Thursday. The Cougars opened up conference play with two consecutive victories, but have lost three of their last four with a challenging two-game stretch against SMU and Connecticut on deck. "I tried to impart upon our players that this was what the level of intensity and emotion was going to be," coach James Dickey said. "That's something we need to improve on, it shows up in defense, discipline and then execution."
•ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (15-4 SU, 10-5-0 ATS, 4-2 AAC): Markus Kennedy led the way against Rutgers with 18 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks to record his third double-double in four games. The Mustangs are ranked 16th nationally in field goal percentage (49) and have shot 50 percent or better on eight occasions. Nic Moore leads the team in scoring (12.6) and assists (4.6) and has dished out 12 helpers in his last two games.
•ABOUT HOUSTON: (11-8 SU, 8-6-0 ATS, 3-3 AAC): TaShawn Thomas tops the team in scoring (16.5), rebounding (8.6) and blocked shots (3.3). The Cougars finished just 2-of-14 from 3-point range in the loss to Memphis after knocking down a season-high 11 treys versus Rutgers on Jan. 19. Thomas scored 14 points and grabbed seven rebounds versus the Tigers and leads the team with seven double-doubles this season.
•PREGAME NOTES: SMU has dished out 10 or more assists in 18 of its 19 games.... The Mustangs are 15-1 when holding their opponents under 40 percent from the field.... Houston is ranked 15th nationally with 6.3 blocks per game.... The Mustangs are 7-1 against the spread versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots this season.... The Cougars are 9-1 versus the spread in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SMU covered the spread 586 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 414 times. *EDGE against the spread =SMU. In 1000 simulated games, SMU won the game straight up 668 times, while HOUSTON won 310 times. In 1000 simulated games, SMU covered the first half line 512 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 433 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 10-8 against the spread versus SMU since 1997.
--HOUSTON is 13-5 straight up against SMU since 1997.
--8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--HOUSTON is 10-8 versus the first half line when playing against SMU since 1997.
--7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SMU is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
--SMU is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 5-0 in SMU last 5 road games.
--HOU is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.
--Under is 9-2 in HOU last 11 overall.
--Under is 8-1 in HOU last 9 home games.
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#831 ILLINOIS @ #832 INDIANA
(TV: 3:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Indiana -5, Total: N/A) - Illinois and Indiana will be trying to escape the bottom half of the Big Ten standings when they collide Sunday in Indiana. The Illini beat the Hoosiers in overtime in their conference opener Dec. 31 and followed that up with a win against Penn State, putting the Illini on the verge of cracking the Top 25 in the coaches’ poll, but they have lost five straight since. Indiana looked like it might be ready to join the conference heavyweights when it knocked off previously unbeaten Wisconsin on Jan. 14, but followed that up with losses to Northwestern and Michigan State.
Yogi Ferrell might finally be coming back down to earth for Indiana. The 6-foot guard has been one of the great stories of the college basketball season, bumping his scoring average from 7.6 as a freshman to 17.5 this season while playing just 2 1/2 more minutes a game, but is shooting 6-for-27 in the last two games, by far his worst stretch of the season. Illinois doesn’t give up baskets easily either, limiting opponents to 63.7 points this season, which ranks third in the Big Ten.
•ABOUT ILLINOIS (13-7 SU, 8-7-4 ATS, 2-5 Big Ten): One of the bright spots for the Illini has been the 3-point shooting of Joseph Bertrand, who is converting 45.2 percent from beyond the arc after coming into the season shooting 31.3 for his career. Illinois has been remarkable healthy this season as well, with nine players appearing in all 20 games. One player who continues to see increased minutes is freshman Kendrick Nunn, who has yet to score in double figures this season but could be due for a breakout game after putting up seven points in the first meeting with Indiana.
•ABOUT INDIANA (12-7 SU, 9-8-1 ATS, 2-4 Big Ten): Evan Gordon transferred from Arizona State in the off-season, hoping for better opportunities with the Hoosiers, but those seem to be slipping away. Gordon did not attempt a field goal in 15 minutes against Michigan State and finished with two points, his fifth straight game in single digits after scoring 10 against the Illini. Gordon, the brother of former Indiana star Eric Gordon now of the New Orleans Pelicans, was limited to 15 minutes against the Spartans after playing at least 32 in each of the previous three games.
•PREGAME NOTES: The first meeting produced the top two scoring performances in Big Ten play thus far; Ferrell scoring 30 points for Indiana and Rayvonte Rice producing a career-high 29 for Illinois.... Illinois is 3-0 this season in games decided by two points or less and 8-0 in two seasons under coach John Groce.... Indiana F Noah Vonleh has been named Big Ten Freshman of the Week six times this season.... Illinois is 8-19 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the spread 539 times, while ILLINOIS covered the spread 430 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 687 times, while ILLINOIS won 295 times. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the first half line 548 times, while ILLINOIS covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ILLINOIS is 18-13 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 22-12 straight up against INDIANA since 1997.
--20 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 18-13 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1997.
--16 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Fighting Illini are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings.
--Under is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings in Indiana.
--Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 19-9 in ILL last 28 overall.
--Under is 7-2 in ILL last 9 Sun. games.
--Under is 17-4 in ILL last 21 road games.
--IND is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--IND is 0-4 ATS L4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Under is 10-4-1 in IND last 15 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
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#833 CINCINNATI @ #834 TEMPLE
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: Cincinnati -7, Total: N/A) - Cincinnati is ripping through the American Athletic Conference with a tight defense that is holding opponents to 54.9 points in seven conference games. Temple, which hosts the 16th-ranked Bearcats on Sunday, is sitting on the bottom of the AAC and has yet to pick up a conference win thanks in large part to a defense that can’t get stops. Cincinnati will attempt to become the second straight team to put up 90 points on the Owls.
Temple put up a fight at the Bearcats on Jan. 14, taking a lead with less than seven minutes to play before Cincinnati scored 22 points over the final 6:28 to take a 69-58 win. That marked setback No. 5 in the Owls’ current seven-game slide, which hit a low point with a 90-66 loss at Connecticut on Tuesday. “At this point, we have disappointed our fan base this year,” Temple coach Fran Dunphy told the Philadelphia Inquirer. “I’m not happy about it. We’re working hard to reverse that.”
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (18-2 SU, 9-5-0 ATS, 7-0 AAC): The Bearcats have allowed only one of their seven AAC opponents to reach 60 points - a 61-60 win at Houston on Jan. 7 - and are riding an 11-game winning streak overall. Leading scorer Sean Kilpatrick buried six 3-pointers in the win over Temple and had one of his better shooting nights in a 69-51 triumph over Central Florida on Thursday, posting 19 points on 6-of-11 shooting, but coach Mick Cronin still sees room for improvement. “A lot of people may not talk about our team and our defense, but I believe in our talent,” Cronin told reporters. “I want our kids to get the respect they deserve. But to do that, you got to be more efficient on offense and be crisp for 40 minutes.”
•ABOUT TEMPLE (5-12 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 0-6 AAC): The Owls had a hard time containing Connecticut from the outside Tuesday and are last in the AAC in scoring defense, surrendering an average of 76.2 points. “When you’re good defensively, It increases your margin for error,” Dunphy told the newspaper. “We’ve had no margin for error.” Temple has four players averaging at least 14.2 points, led by Dalton Pepper’s 17, but hurt themselves with 15 turnovers in the Jan. 14 meeting. Pepper put up 21 points in that game but the Owls were missing guard Will Cummings (concussion), who returned from a two-game absence and put up 20 points at Connecticut.
•PREGAME NOTES: Cincinnati has held 27 straight opponents to less than 70 points.... Temple ranks last in the AAC in rebounding margin while the Bearcats are second in the league on the boards.... Bearcats F Justin Jackson has blocked at least five shots in four of the seven conference games.... The Owls are 35-13 against the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of less than 42% after 15+ games since 1997.... Cincinnati is 14-4 versus the spread in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the spread 513 times, while CINCINNATI covered the spread 454 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI won the game straight up 673 times, while TEMPLE won 303 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 507 times, while CINCINNATI covered the first half line 493 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEMPLE is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1997.
--TEMPLE is 2-2 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TEMPLE is 4-0 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CIN is 7-29 ATS in their last 36 Sun. games.
--Under is 42-10 in CIN last 52 overall.
--Under is 20-7 in CIN last 27 road games.
--TEM is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games.
--TEM is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 Sun. games.
--Over is 11-3 in TEM last 14 home games.
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#837 STANFORD @ #838 USC
(TV: 5:00 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Line: Stanford -6, Total: N/A) - Stanford will try to reverse a trend of poor performances in Southern California when the Cardinal travel to USC for a Pac-12 game Sunday. After Stanford lost to host UCLA by 17 points Thursday, the Cardinal have dropped 16 of their last 17 against USC and UCLA when playing down south. The lone victory occurred two years ago when Stanford beat the Trojans to snap a 13-game losing streak.
USC lost its first five conference games by an average of 22.4 points before posting a surprising 77-69 victory Wednesday against visiting California. Trojans 6-10 forward Nikola Jovanovic scored a career-high 23 points on 8-for-10 shooting and the Trojans led from start to finish. Stanford had won three in a row before running into UCLA.
•ABOUT STANFORD (12-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 3-3 Pac-12): The only member of the Cardinal who has played well against the Trojans is forward Josh Huestis, who is averaging 8.8 points and 5.7 rebounds while shooting 52.6 percent from the field in six games. Chasson Randle, who leads Stanford in scoring at 19.2 points this season, is averaging 10 points in four games against the Trojans. Second-leading scorer and leading rebounder Dwight Powell is averaging 6.3 points and 7.5 rebounds in six games and third-leading scorer Anthony Brown is averaging 6.5 points in four games..
•ABOUT USC (10-9 SU, 7-9-1 ATS, 1-5 Pac-12): The battle in the paint figures to be a key element in this matchup. USC benefits from 7-2 center Omar Oraby and Jovanovic, who combined for 32 points on 12-for-15 shooting against the Golden Bears. Oraby is just as intimidating on the defensive end, owning 48 blocked shots this season and 95 in his career to tie him for eighth on USC's all-time list. He has totaled at least one block in every game this season.
•PREGAME NOTES: USC leads the all-time series at 123-120.... USC is averaging 24.6 free throws this season after averaging 18.3 through 19 games in 2012-13.... Stanford has scored at least 70 points in 13 of its 18 games.... The Trojans are 7-17 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... Stanford is 20-8 versus the spread in road games after a combined score of 165 points or more since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, STANFORD covered the spread 543 times, while USC covered the spread 428 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, STANFORD won the game straight up 711 times, while USC won 264 times. In 1000 simulated games, STANFORD covered the first half line 503 times, while USC covered the first half line 456 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--USC is 18-17 against the spread versus STANFORD since 1997.
--STANFORD is 20-15 straight up against USC since 1997.
--15 of 26 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--USC is 20-15 versus the first half line when playing against STANFORD since 1997.
--14 of 26 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Southern California.
•RECENT TRENDS
--STAN is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
--STAN is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Over is 6-2 in STAN last 8 Sun. games.
--USC is 6-17-2 ATS in their last 25 Sun. games.
--USC is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pacific-12.
--Over is 7-2 in USC last 9 overall.
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#839 MINNESOTA @ #840 NEBRASKA
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Nebraska -1, Total: N/A) - Minnesota is prepared to forge ahead without leading scorer Andre Hollins when it visits Nebraska in a Big Ten tilt Sunday. Hollins suffered a severely sprained left ankle seconds into the Golden Gophers' 81-68 win over No. 8 Wisconsin on Wednesday and has been termed doubtful for the visit to Lincoln. The fact that Minnesota thrived even without Hollins in the win over the Badgers bodes well, as Richard Pitino's squad was still able to shoot 58.9 percent from the floor and dominated in the interior.
The Golden Gophers are now clear from a daunting four-game run against ranked opponents, a stretch that included a win over Ohio State. The Cornhuskers also knocked off the Buckeyes recently before falling 58-54 at Penn State on Thursday in a matchup of the two teams bringing up the rear in the Big Ten. Terran Petteway scored 15 points to lead Nebraska, which forced just five turnovers while giving the ball up 14 times - leading to 22 points - in losing a late lead.
•ABOUT MINNESOTA (15-5 SU, 7-9-1 ATS, 4-3 Big Ten): Without Hollins, the Golden Gophers will lean more on Austin Hollins and DeAndre Mathieu, while Maurice Walker's breakout game against Wisconsin shows that he is ready to contribute a bit more. Walker, a junior, had career highs of 18 points and nine rebounds in 24 minutes, a sign that he may finally be settling in after a rocky start to his career. The big forward, who is shooting 58.6 percent from the floor in Big Ten action, suffered a major knee injury as a freshman, played sporadically as a sophomore and missed the first six games of this season due to a violation of school policy.
•ABOUT NEBRASKA (9-9 SU, 10-7-0 ATS, 1-5 Big Ten): The Cornhuskers have won 10 of their last 11 home games dating to last season, the only loss being a one-point setback Jan. 9 versus Michigan, which entered Saturday unbeaten in the Big Ten. Petteway, one of three players in the conference ranked in the top 10 in scoring and rebounding, has been extremely consistent - scoring in double figures in 15 straight games - but has also taken a particular liking to the atmosphere at Pinnacle Bank Arena. The sophomore swingman is shooting 53.2 percent at home and 42.3 percent on the road since the middle of December.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Golden Gophers own a 52-16 series advantage, including wins in three of the four meetings since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten.... Minnesota entered Saturday ranked last in the league in turnover margin (-3.43), while Nebraska was last in assist-to-turnover ratio (0.7).... Cornhuskers F Shavon Shields has recorded at least nine rebounds in three straight games after failing to do so in any of his first 15 contests.... Nebraska is 23-7 against the spread in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the spread 569 times, while NEBRASKA covered the spread 396 times. *EDGE against the spread =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 533 times, while NEBRASKA won 431 times. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the first half line 552 times, while NEBRASKA covered the first half line 448 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEBRASKA is 7-5 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1997.
--MINNESOTA is 7-5 straight up against NEBRASKA since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--NEBRASKA is 8-3 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MINN is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 vs. Big Ten.
--MINN is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
--Over is 5-2-1 in MINN last 8 road games.
--NEB is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--NEB is 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.
--Under is 20-6 in NEB last 26 Sun. games.
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#843 CLEMSON @ #844 N CAROLINA
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: N Carolina -7, Total: N/A) - Clemson has never won in Chapel Hill and this season represents a solid chance for the Tigers to end the dismal skid when they visit struggling North Carolina on Sunday. The Tigers have all lost 56 visits to North Carolina’s campus and face a Tar Heels squad that is 1-4 in ACC play for only the second time ever. North Carolina’s streak over Clemson includes double-digit wins in 24 of its last 26 home games against the Tigers.
Clemson also faces another rare opportunity as a victory would give the school wins over Duke and North Carolina in the same season for the first time since the 1995-96 campaign. The Tigers were routed 76-43 by Pittsburgh in their last outing while North Carolina succumbed 76-61 at Virginia. The Tar Heels’ trouble areas include free-throw shooting and the 61.5 percent success rate is on track to be the worst in program history.
•ABOUT CLEMSON (13-5 SU, 9-4-0 ATS, 4-2 ACC): Getting routed by Pittsburgh was a stern reminder that the Tigers have a lot of work to do despite their strong start in conference play. Clemson quickly fell behind by double digits, shot just 32 percent from field and leading scorer K.J. McDaniels (16.4) was the lone player to reach double figures with 11 points. “All of a sudden you get slapped in the face a little bit and it’s real,” coach Brad Brownell said afterward. “There’s nowhere to hide.”
•ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (11-7 SU, 7-11-0 ATS, 1-4 ACC): Leading scorer Marcus Paige (16.8) has failed to reach double digits in three of five conference games while shooting 34.3 percent and finding creative ways to get him open has become a high priority. “I think it’s no secret that people know the guy we need to score and to create is Marcus Paige,” assistant coach Hubert Davis said while filling in for coach Roy Williams on the latter’s weekly radio show. “Every time he catches the ball, he’s got two or three guys with him, so we’ve got to do a better job of getting him open.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Tar Heels own a 127-20 series edge and have won the last five meetings.... Clemson allows just 54.8 points per game and is 6-0 when giving up 50 or fewer points.... North Carolina is shooting a lowly 22.7 percent from 3-point range in ACC play.... The Tar Heels are 8-1 against the spread in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CLEMSON covered the spread 586 times, while N CAROLINA covered the spread 389 times. *EDGE against the spread =CLEMSON. In 1000 simulated games, N CAROLINA won the game straight up 601 times, while CLEMSON won 368 times. In 1000 simulated games, CLEMSON covered the first half line 578 times, while N CAROLINA covered the first half line 422 times. *EDGE against first half line =CLEMSON.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--N CAROLINA is 17-11 against the spread versus CLEMSON since 1997.
--N CAROLINA is 25-5 straight up against CLEMSON since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CLEMSON is 16-14 versus the first half line when playing against N CAROLINA since 1997.
--12 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Tigers are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in North Carolina.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in North Carolina.
--Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CLEM is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Sun. games.
--CLEM is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
--Under is 20-6 in CLEM last 26 Sun. games.
--UNC is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--UNC is 8-26 ATS in their last 34 Sun. games.
--UNC is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#845 OREGON @ #846 WASHINGTON ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Oregon -6.5, Total: N/A) - Oregon has lost five straight after opening the season with 13 consecutive wins, but the Ducks remain optimistic heading into Sunday’s contest at Washington State. Four of the losses have come by single digits, and the Ducks still lead the Pac-12 in scoring at 86.8 points per game. “We just need one win to get started,” guard Joseph Young told reporters. “If we get one, then I feel like everybody will know what a win feels like again and once we get that one everybody will be excited.”
If the Ducks are going to climb back into the conference race, Sunday’s contest would be an opportune place to start. They’re facing a Washington State team averaging a Pac-12-worst 49.9 points in league play, and leading scorer DaVonte Lacy is out for another 2-4 weeks with a rib injury. The Cougars have dropped three straight and six of their last seven, including a 66-55 loss to Oregon State on Wednesday.
•ABOUT OREGON (13-5 SU, 8-7-2 ATS, 1-5 Pac-12): Coach Dana Altman gave guard Dominic Artis and forward Ben Carter their first starts of the season on Wednesday against Washington, but they were held to a combined four points in the 80-76 loss. The Ducks, who have struggled inside the paint during their losing streak, could catch a break against the league’s worst offensive rebounding team in Washington State. Young was a key part of the Ducks’ 13-game winning streak, but he’s shooting 35.6 percent in league play.
•ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (8-11 SU, 5-9-1 ATS, 1-6 Pac-12): Forward D.J. Shelton scored 24 points and freshman guard Que Johnson had 15 against Oregon State, but the rest of the team combined for 16 points. Johnson has scored at least 14 points in seven of the last nine games, but the Cougars have been unable to replace Lacy’s scoring output. Guard Royce Woolridge, who scored a career-high 36 points in a 79-77 overtime loss to Oregon last season, averages 8.8 points and 3.2 assists.
•PREGAME NOTES: Oregon has won eight of the last nine games in the series, including five straight.... Washington State has lost eight straight overtime games against Oregon.... Oregon F Mike Moser needs 24 points to reach the 1,000-point mark for his career.... The Ducks are 4-15 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Cougars are 18-6 versus the spread after three straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the spread 593 times, while WASHINGTON ST covered the spread 407 times. *EDGE against the spread =OREGON. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON won the game straight up 748 times, while WASHINGTON ST won 229 times. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the first half line 527 times, while WASHINGTON ST covered the first half line 473 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON is 22-14 against the spread versus WASHINGTON ST since 1997.
--OREGON is 28-8 straight up against WASHINGTON ST since 1997.
--11 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OREGON is 17-13 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON ST since 1997.
--12 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Ducks are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Washington St.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ORE is 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--ORE is 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 vs. Pacific-12.
--Over is 19-7 in ORE last 26 overall.
--WSU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--Under is 6-2-1 in WSU last 9 overall.
--Under is 6-2-2 in WSU last 10 vs. Pacific-12.
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#847 UTAH @ #848 ARIZONA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Arizona -15, Total: N/A) - Top-ranked Arizona can set a school record for consecutive victories and looks to remain unbeaten when it hosts Utah in Sunday’s Pac-12 encounter. The Wildcats’ 19-game winning streak matches the mark set by the 1992-93 and 1997-98 squads and the 6-0 start in conference play is the school’s best since the 2002-03 campaign. Utah lost to Arizona State in the front end of a three-game road swing that concludes against Colorado.
The Wildcats have been a fixture atop the national rankings behind a well-balanced roster and their average winning margin is 18.8 points. Coach Sean Miller doesn’t want his players resting on their laurels and has reminded them that the Utes are dangerous despite their 0-3 mark in Pac-12 road games. “Utah is one of the more improved teams in the country,” Miller told reporters. “If you look at their scores, even when they’ve lost they play everyone to the wire.”
•ABOUT UTAH (14-5 SU, 11-2-1 ATS, 3-4 Pac-12): Guard Delon Wright is the biggest reason for the Utes’ improvement this season as the all-purpose player is shooting 61.5 percent from the field. Wright leads Utah in assists (5.1) and steals (49) and also ranks second in scoring (15.9) and rebounding (7.2) behind forward Jordan Loveridge (16.7 and 8.1). Wright has topped 20 points five times – including 21 in the loss to Arizona State – and has scored in double figures in all but one game.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (19-0 SU, 13-5-0 ATS, 6-0 Pac-12): Junior guard Nick Johnson is in the mix for Pac-12 Player of the Year honors and leads the Wildcats in scoring (16.4) and 3-pointers (32) while playing heady defense. Johnson’s 114 career steals rank third among active Pac-12 players and he recently became the 48th player in school history to surpass 1,000 career points. Forwards Aaron Gordon (12.4 points, team-best 7.6 rebounds) and Brandon Ashley (12.2) are also averaging in double digits while point guard T.J. McConnell has a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio while averaging 6.1 assists per game.
•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona has won the last seven meetings.... The Wildcats have won 16 consecutive home games and have a 33-7 home mark in Pac-12 play during Miller’s five seasons.... Utah is shooting a solid 50.8 percent from the field and holding opponents to 39.9.... The Wildcats are 8-0 against the spread versus very good shooting teams - making more than 48% of their shots over the last three seasons.... Utah is 10-0 versus the spread when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the spread 550 times, while ARIZONA covered the spread 414 times. *EDGE against the spread =UTAH. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 821 times, while UTAH won 151 times. In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the first half line 595 times, while ARIZONA covered the first half line 405 times. *EDGE against first half line =UTAH.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UTAH is 5-3 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 7-1 straight up against UTAH since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--UTAH is 5-3 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UTAH is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
--UTAH is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.
--Under is 7-3 in UTAH last 10 overall.
--ARIZ is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games.
--ARIZ is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
--Under is 23-9-1 in ARIZ last 33 home games.
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#849 CALIFORNIA @ #850 UCLA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: UCLA -6, Total: N/A) - California on Sunday looks to bounce back from its first Pac-12 loss when the Golden Bears visit UCLA, which is coming off an impressive victory over Stanford. Bruins point guard Kyle Anderson moved to the front of the Pac-12 Player of the Year race with 13 points, seven rebounds, 10 assists and zero turnovers in Wednesday’s 91-74 win over the Cardinal. Sunday’s contest features the two highest scoring teams in league play, with both teams averaging at least 76 points.
The Golden Bears had their six-game winning streak snapped with Wednesday’s stunning 77-69 loss to USC, which lost its first five league games by an average of 22.4 points. Coach Mike Montgomery questioned his team’s focus after the loss, which was marked by the Trojans’ dominance in the paint and the Golden Bears’ 32-percent shooting. The team broke from routine and returned home for school before flying back to Los Angeles on Saturday.
•ABOUT CALIFORNIA (14-5 SU, 10-8-0 ATS, 5-1 Pac-12): Forwards Richard Solomon and David Kravish were a key part of the Golden Bears’ 5-0 start in league play, but both struggled to contain USC’s 6-10 freshman Nikola Jovanovic on Wednesday. Solomon leads the Pac-12 in rebounding at 10.4 per game, while point guard Justin Cobbs (team-high 15.3 points) has averaged 13.8 points and seven assists in four career games against UCLA. Freshman guard Jabari Bird (9.5 points) has struggled over the last three games after missing four contests with a sprained right ankle.
•ABOUT UCLA (15-4 SU, 11-7-0 ATS, 4-2 Pac-12): The Bruins forced 18 turnovers against Stanford and shot 52 percent, with 6-9 forward Tony Parker scoring a career-high 22 points. Anderson (15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, 6.7 assists) has emerged as the team’s star, but coach Steve Alford has eight players averaging at least 19 minutes. Freshman guard Zach LaVine is averaging 12.4 points while shooting 52.9 percent, and guard Jordan Adams (team-high 17.5 points) has shot 11-for-23 over the last two games.
•PREGAME NOTES: California has won four of the last five meetings against UCLA, but the Bruins lead the all-time series 133-101.... The Bruins are 12-1 at home, with the only loss coming against No. 1 Arizona on Jan. 9.... Kravish has averaged 12.3 points and eight rebounds in four career games against the Bruins.... The Bears are 8-1 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the spread 569 times, while CALIFORNIA covered the spread 402 times. *EDGE against the spread =UCLA. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA won the game straight up 736 times, while CALIFORNIA won 242 times. In 1000 simulated games, UCLA covered the first half line 557 times, while CALIFORNIA covered the first half line 400 times. *EDGE against first half line =UCLA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CALIFORNIA is 22-15 against the spread versus UCLA since 1997.
--UCLA is 21-16 straight up against CALIFORNIA since 1997.
--17 of 29 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CALIFORNIA is 22-14 versus the first half line when playing against UCLA since 1997.
--21 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Golden Bears are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in UCLA.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CAL is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--CAL is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pacific-12.
--Over is 7-1 in CAL last 8 Sun. games.
--UCLA is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
--UCLA is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pacific-12.
--Over is 4-0 in UCLA last 4 home games.
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