STATSYSTEMS SPORTS CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP REPORT
THURSDAY, JANUARY 16[SUP]TH[/SUP] 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Conference Championship Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2013-14 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Conference Championship Betting News & Notes
The National Football League may be a passing league now but when it comes to paving the road to the Super Bowl, teams are looking to ground and pound postseason opponents. This trend is especially prominent in the National Football Conference, where teams have controlled the ball and the clock with their rushing attack, keeping final scores Under the total. All four NFC playoff games have finished below the number, and each of those contests has featured the winner taking to the turf to secure the victory.
New Orleans shocked Philadelphia with a run-focused attack in the Wild Card Round, picking up 185 yards on the ground and San Francisco rushed for 167 yards in its victory over Green Bay. The Niners followed that with 126 yards rushing in the win over Carolina Sunday while Seattle marched for 167 yards in its triumph over the Saints. Those winning teams scored a total of just three passing touchdowns in those playoff victories, compared to a combined five scores on the ground. And this change in offensive pace isn’t reserved to the NFC, with the American Football Conference also seeing many potent pass attacks turn to the ground game.
New England dominated Indianapolis with 234 yards rushing, but also ran into the end zone six times while Tom Brady passed for a pedestrian 13 of 25 for 198 yards. The Patriots won 43-22 and blew the 51-point total away. The Denver Broncos also switched gears with the run game leading the charge in Sunday night’s victory over San Diego. The Broncos rumbled for 133 yards behind RBs Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. That kept scoring low, with Denver hanging on for a 24-17 win that stayed below the 55-point number.
Unders in the postseason are nothing new to football bettors. Last year’s Wild Card Weekend provided a 0-4 Over/Under record. However, the Divisional Round returned serve with a 4-0 Over/Under count. The Championship Round produced a 1-1 Over/Under mark and Super Bowl XLVII played well over the posted total of 47.5-point total, with Baltimore beating San Francisco 34-31. Oddsmakers have set the total for the AFC Championship between New England and Denver at 54.5 while the NFC Championship total is posted at 39.5 points.
Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady
It's time for the Conference Championships which feature a pair of blockbuster matchups - but one clearly rises above the other as Peyton Manning and his Denver Broncos host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots for a showdown in the American Football Conference Championship. Manning and Brady will face off for the 15th time - and will do so with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line. Here's a breakdown of the all-time matchup in a special Tale of the Tape:
•Straight-Up: Brady 10, Manning 4
Tom Brady has dominated the head-to-head record between the future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks, winning the first six encounters - including the 2003 AFC Championship Game - and going 7-2 at Foxboro Stadium. Manning does have the most significant victory of the series, leading Indianapolis back from an 18-point deficit to prevail 38-34 in the 2006 AFC title game. It's the biggest comeback in conference championship history. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski booted a 31-yard field goal in overtime to give the Pats the 34-31 win when the two teams met in Week #12 this season.
•Against The Spread: Brady (7-5-2)
This matchup is much closer than the straight-up history, in part due to a series of closely contested confrontations. Brady kicked off the tete-a-tete with a 5-0-1 ATS record - highlighted by a 44-13 rout of Manning's Indianapolis Colts in Brady's first career start - but Manning covered in each of the next four matchups. The Patriots covered as 1-point favorites in the Week #12 clash at Foxboro this season.
•Over/Under: 9-5-0
With two of the best quarterbacks of a generation facing off, points are often scored in bunches - and the Brady-Manning encounters are no exception. The first meeting saw 57 points scored, kicking off a trend that saw the teams combine for greater than 50 points in five of the first seven showdowns. The high-water mark of 72 points was set in New England's 38-34 win in Week #13 of the 2003 season and equaled in the Colts' 38-34 win in the 2006 AFC title game. The teams combined for 65 points in Week #12, which finished Over the closing total of 54.
•Passing Yards: Manning 3,971, Brady, 3,403
Manning has edged out Brady when it comes to passing yardage, averaging a whopping 283.6 yards per game compared to Brady's mark of 243.1. Manning has a number of big yardage games against the Patriots on his career resume, including a 349-yard performance in the 2006 conference championship and a 326-yard effort in a 27-20 triumph over the Patriots earlier that season. Brady was hurt by a 168-yard showing in their first-ever encounter in 2001.
•Touchdowns/Interceptions: Manning: 29/20; Brady: 26/12
Known more as a gunslinger than his Patriots counterpart, it should surprise no one that Manning has more touchdowns and interceptions in the all-time series. Manning handed Brady his first victory as a starting quarterback, throwing three interceptions - two of which were run back for scores. He also has a place in history as the first quarterback to throw for four touchdowns against the Bill Belichick-led Patriots in 2003 - albeit in defeat.
Seahawks Fans Cause Another Small Quake
Seattle Seahawks fans have done it again. Seismologists say the 12th Man shook the ground under Seattle's CenturyLink Field during Saturday's Divisional Round win against the New Orleans Saints causing another fan-generated earthquake. And surprise, surprise, it was another Marshawn Lynch touchdown run that caused the seismic activity and the scientists believe the small earthquake was likely greater than Lynch's famous "beast quake" touchdown run three years ago in the NFC Wildcard Round, also against the Saints.
With Seattle's 12th Man in peak form, home field advantage means a lot to the Seahawks and the spread when the San Francisco 49ers come to town for the second time this season. This time to battle it out for the NFC Championship. "In my opinion (home field is worth), four to six points," Oddsmaker Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com told us here at StatSystems Sports earlier this season. "For teams like the 49ers, they play there every year so I would error on the low side and say four points."
For others, the home-field advantage hinges more on the weather than the noise. “It really depends on the weather,” Nevada-based oddsmaker Peter Korner says of Seattle’s home-field edge. “...If it’s raining and cold, that’s to their advantage. But it’s all about the wind there, and there was big wind there Saturday.” The Seahawks are currently 3.5-point favorites.
Betcha Didn't Know
NFL’s version of the ‘Final Four’ kicks off this Sunday in the Championship Games where surprises aplenty have certainly been the buzzword. That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets in 15 of 46 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being the Baltimore Ravens victory over New England at Foxboro last year, and the New York Giants win at San Francisco two years ago, with both teams going on to capture the coveted Super Bowl.
Our Systems Analyst here at StatSystemsSports.net take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the Championship Matchups, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season we can certainly use every edge imaginable. Note: All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since the 1990 season, unless noted otherwise.
Running the football is tantamount to success in the National Football League. Especially in the playoffs. It’s no coincidence that since the New York Giants 21-17 win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI that 18 of the last 20 straight-up playoff winners have rushed the ball for 100 or more yards, including all eight winners this season. Teams who have managed to gain 110 or more rushing yards in a championship game have gone 19-9 SU and 20-8 ATS, including a near-perfect 9-1 ATS as underdogs of 4 or more points.
While all four of this week’s combatants average more than 100 rushing yards per game on the season, only Denver and San Francisco surrender less than 100 running yards per contest. The Patriots allow the most yards on the ground, 130 YPG.
•Situationally Speaking
The oddsmakers have done a nice job overall during this round, with favorites checking in at 26-22 versus the number, and home teams 22-26 ATS. Teams off a road win (San Francisco) are 15-11 ATS, while teams off a win-no-cover are 12-8 ATS, including 8-3 ATS when riding a pair of victories. That should be music to the ears of Denver and Seattle backers.
While high-scoring games are the norm in the NFL these days, teams arriving to the championship round following a high scoring effort in their last confrontation tend to come back to earth: Half of the 34 teams in this round who put 34 or more points on the scoreboard in a divisional round victory fell short of the Super Bowl, going 17-17 SU and 12-22 ATS. Worse, if these same squads are taking on an .800 or greater opponent they fall to 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in title games. That puts New England on hard ground this Sunday at Sports Authority Field.
Three of the four head coaches have had the luxury of coaching team in Championship Games – namely Bill Belichick, Jon Fox and Jim Harbaugh. New England’s Belichick brings a 5-2 straight-up and 3-4 against the spread record (0-4 ATS last four) with the Patriots in Championship Games into this weekend’s fray. Furthermore, Belichich is 0-4 ATS in title games after scoring 24 or more points his previous playoff contest.
Meanwhile, Fox has made two championship game appearances with the Carolina Panthers, splitting out 1-1 straight-up and versus the number – both as an underdog. San Francisco returns to the championship game for the third-straight year under Jim Harbaugh. The Niners are 1-1 SU and 0-1-1 ATS in these games under his lead. Seattle’s Pete Carroll is a championship game virgin.
Points aplenty in this league of late have forced the linemakers to raise the Over/Under totals bar. It’s what happens when there have been 29 OVERS and 19 UNDERS and 1 PUSH in Championship Games. Surprisingly, the higher the total the more OVERS there have been as games with a posted total set at 46 or more points have gone 10-5 OVER the posted total.
•Incredible Stat Of The Week: The last No. 1 seed from the National Football Conference to win a Super Bowl game was the 1999 St. Louis Rams. St. Louis defeated the Tennessee Titans by the score of 23–16, capturing their first Super Bowl win and first NFL championship since 1951. The game, played on January 30, 2000 at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia, was the fourth Super Bowl to be held a week after the conference championship games (the previous time this happened was Super Bowl XXVIII, and coincidentally that game was also played on January 30 at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta).
Four Live NFL Long Shots To Win Super Bowl XLIX Next Year
The LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened betting on the Super Bowl Tuesday – next year’s Super Bowl that is – putting futures prices on the winner of Super Bowl XLIX at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Arizona next February. The usual suspects are at the top of the list: Denver (+600), Seattle (+600), San Francisco (+700), New England (+1,200). But no one is paying off those holiday bills with those boring bets. If you’re looking for a Super Bowl long shot to hang your hat on in 2014-15, look no further than these four teams:
•Arizona Cardinals (+2,500)- The Cardinals narrowly missed the postseason in their first season under head coach Bruce Arians and are a hardened bunch coming out of the National Football League’s “Group of Death” – the NFC West. Not that you need extra motivation to make the Super Bowl, but Arizona could be the first team to host and play in the Big Game.
•Indianapolis Colts (+2,500) - The Colts came close this season but got bowled over by the Patriots in the Divisional Round. But you have to think Andrew Luck’s time will come. Two years. Two postseason appearances. If he can keep his offensive line healthy and have WR Reggie Wayne for an entire season, Indianapolis could take advantage of a soft schedule in 2014.
•New York Giants (+3,000) - The NFC East is giving great value all around. The Eagles, who won the division, are 25/1 while the Redskins, who won only three games, are 30/1 along with the Cowboys and the Giants. New York was dead in the water before the leaves changed this season but whenever you think ole Tom Coughlin’s chair is getting hot, he douses it with a Super Bowl Gatorade bath. The G-Men also have a weakest slate of games in the division.
•San Diego Chargers (+3,000) - Say Peyton Manning does retire in 2014 due to a bum neck. And let’s say a lot of the Kansas City Chiefs’ success in Year 1 under Andy Reid was due to their cupcake schedule. The Chargers could be the kings of the AFC West. The Bolts have one of the tougher 2014 calendars but Philip Rivers and a dynamic offense – as well as an underrated defense - may finally give San Diego that championship that fans have been not attending games and hoping for all those years.
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AFC Championship Game
#301 NEW ENGLAND @ #302 DENVER
(TV: 3:00 PM EST, CBS. Line: Broncos -5, Total: 55) - In a season in which Peyton Manning surpassed Tom Brady's single-season record for touchdown passes, it's probably fitting that these superstars will meet with the AFC title on the line. While the quarterbacks will share this weekend's spotlight, there's reason to believe the rushing attacks for the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots will be more decisive to Sunday's outcome. This could be the final postseason matchup between these future Hall of Fame signal-callers, and the stakes couldn't be higher with a trip to Super Bowl XLVIII on the line in Denver.
Manning was the story of the season as he dissected NFL defenses with ease for 55 touchdown passes. Brady set the previous mark of 50 in 2007 when the Patriots nearly completed an historic 19-0 season before an upset loss in the Super Bowl to a New York Giants team led by Manning's brother, Eli. Brady has won 10 of 14 matchups with Manning's teams, including a 2-1 mark in the postseason in which the home team has prevailed each time. This duel is drawing comparisons to other iconic sports matchups such as Ali-Frazier, Palmer-Nicklaus and Bird-Magic. "It's going to a barnburner," Broncos executive vice president of football operations John Elway said.
The first meeting this season certainly was a thriller, as New England (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 halftime deficit for a 34-31 overtime win Nov. 24 in Foxborough. Manning was held to 150 yards, a 52.8 completion percentage and a 70.4 passer rating -- by far his worst figures of his historic season. Denver (14-3) is favored this time as the No. 1 seed with home-field advantage. Brady, who missed practice Wednesday, said in his weekly WEEI radio show that he is relishing being the underdog. "I'm sure no one's going to pick us to win this week," said Brady, who will make his eighth AFC title game appearance and third in as many years. "We've had our backs against the wall for a while. Really, the whole season we've lost players, and teams have really counted us out."
The players that Brady and Manning will hand off to this weekend figure to be crucial in determining the winner. Elway had Terrell Davis in his backfield when Denver won the Super Bowl in the 1997 and 1998 seasons, and Manning also will give the ball to a former Georgia tailback. Knowshon Moreno had a career-high 1,038 rushing yards this season, and the Patriots will be very familiar with him after he had a career-best 224 yards in the November meeting. Moreno's 23 carries for 82 yards along with a touchdown last Sunday helped Denver enjoy over 35 minutes of possession in a 24-17 divisional victory over San Diego. He had offseason knee surgery after being limited to 15 games over the past two seasons and now is one game away from a trip to the Super Bowl that will be about an hour's drive from Middletown, N.J., where Moreno grew up. "He has just been a rock for us back there," Manning said.
While New England knows what to expect from Moreno, Denver can't say the same about LeGarrette Blount, who had two carries for 13 yards the last time these teams met. Blount is rolling now with a career-high 189 rushing yards in a 34-20 win over Buffalo in Week #17, and 166 with four TDs in last Saturday's 43-22 rout of Indianapolis. "I think they do a good job with personnel and he's obviously another different weapon but he's big and physical," Denver coach John Fox said. "He's got skins on the wall in this league as far as a running back." The emergence of a New England running game that also features Stevan Ridley has taken the pressure off Brady, who was sacked 40 times this year for his highest total since 2001.
One of Brady's best efforts came against Denver, as he completed 34 of 50 passes for 344 yards, three scores and no interceptions. Brady has mostly been without his top five targets of 2012, with Wes Welker having departed to Denver and Rob Gronkowski limited to seven games before season-ending knee surgery. Julian Edelman has stepped up with a team-high 1,056 yards. "I think he's really led our receiving group with a tremendous amount of toughness, consistency," offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said. "He practices hard, prepares hard, he's on top of his game plan." McDaniels will return to Denver for the first time since he posted an 11-17 record as Broncos coach before he was fired during the 2010 season.
Manning will be able to target tight end Julius Thomas, who missed the first meeting with a knee injury. Thomas had a team-high 76 yards through the air last weekend on six catches, converting a key 3rd-and-17 in the closing minutes to help seal the win. "Excellent player -- size, speed, he's a good vertical receiver, he gets down the field on seams and flags and over routes and wheel routes, like he caught last week and things like that," New England coach Bill Belichick said. "He's also good on catch-and-run plays."
Welker will try to atone for his gaffe in the first meeting when he failed to inform his teammates in time that he was not going to field Ryan Allen's punt in overtime. Teammate Tony Carter ran into it, and the Patriots recovered the ball to lead to Stephen Gostkowski's 31-yard field goal with 1:56 left. Allen hurt his shoulder in the second quarter against the Colts, with Gostkowski punting the rest of the game. Allen returned to practice Wednesday, but Belichick did not say who will handle the punting duties.
•PREGAME NOTES: Under head coach Bill Belichick, New England has played in eight AFC Championship games, three of them played on the road.... The Patriots have gone 6-2 in those contests and that includes a 2-1 record on the road. The ‘under’ has produced a 5-3 mark.... Denver hasn’t been to the AFC Championship since the 2005-06 playoffs and it was doubled-up at Pittsburgh, 34-17.... Baltimore defeated New England 28-13 in last year’s AFC title game on the road. Prior to that outcome, the home team has won the six previous conference championships.
•KEY STATS
-- NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus incredible offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 26.0, OPPONENT 19.0.
-- NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 37.7, OPPONENT 23.3.
-- NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 35.9, OPPONENT 18.3.
-- NEW ENGLAND is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 28.0, OPPONENT 17.5.
-- NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 37.1, OPPONENT 27.0.
-- NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 36.9, OPPONENT 26.5.
-- NEW ENGLAND is 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 33.8, OPPONENT 21.7.
-- NEW ENGLAND is 17-4 against the 1rst half line (+12.6 Units) in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 15.0, OPPONENT 10.0.
-- NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 11.6, OPPONENT 10.3.
-- NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 11.9, OPPONENT 9.7.
-- NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game this season.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 7.6, OPPONENT 6.6.
-- DENVER is 40-17 OVER (+21.3 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 22.8, OPPONENT 24.8.
-- DENVER is 46-19 OVER (+25.1 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 24.4, OPPONENT 23.2.
-- DENVER is 30-12 OVER (+16.8 Units) versus very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 23.3, OPPONENT 27.8.
-- DENVER is 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) after leading their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 28.9, OPPONENT 21.6.
-- DENVER is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 34.5, OPPONENT 22.3.
-- DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games revenging an upset loss against opponent as a road favorite since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 23.6, OPPONENT 11.5.
-- FOX is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in home games versus mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 17.6, OPPONENT 16.8.
-- DENVER is 14-2 against the 1rst half line (+11.8 Units) in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 17.3, OPPONENT 5.6.
-- DENVER is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 14.4, OPPONENT 21.4.
-- DENVER is 35-15 OVER (+18.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 12.7, OPPONENT 11.0.
-- DENVER is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 15.2, OPPONENT 8.8.
-- DENVER is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 14.5, OPPONENT 8.8.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
The Patriots rallied from a 24-0 deficit in Week 12 to defeat the Broncos 34-31 in a SNF matchup. New England closed as a one-point home underdog and the combined 65 points, 41 coming in the second-half, jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 54. Including this win, the Patriots have won and covered the last four matchups against the Broncos. Quarterback Tom Brady is 10-4 versus Peyton Manning all-time, 2-1 in the playoffs. They’ve met twice in the conference championship, with Brady winning in 2003 and Manning winning in 2006.
--DENVER is 10-8 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND since 1992.
--DENVER is 10-8 straight up against NEW ENGLAND since 1992.
--12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--DENVER is 9-9 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ENGLAND since 1992.
--13 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Denver.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
--Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Championships games.
--Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards.
--Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
--Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 vs. AFC.
--Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games on grass.
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NFC Championship Game
#303 SAN FRANCISCO @ #304 SEATTLE
(TV: 6:30 PM EST, FOX. Line: Seahawks -3.5, Total: 38.5) - Riding an eight-game winning streak, it's easy to understand why the San Francisco 49ers feel they can perform better than they did in their last two visits to Seattle. Whether they're good enough to end their road struggles against the Seahawks and reach the Super Bowl for a second straight season will be determined Sunday with the NFC championship on the line. "I think we're the two teams that everybody was looking at from the beginning," San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick said. "It's going to be a knockdown, drag-out game. "We're ready to go."
Mirroring the images of their fiery and animated head coaches, both sides expect the hitting to be hard, the talking loud and the emotions high when these NFC West rivals meet with so much at stake. "Long story short: They know us, we know them," 49ers linebacker NaVorro Bowman said. "We got to go there. We all know the history. But this is the Super Bowl." Though the teams have split the last four meetings, top-seeded Seattle (14-3) has looked dominant while forcing seven turnovers and outscoring the 49ers 71-16 to win the last two at raucous CenturyLink Field.
"It's a big deal to play here," Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman told the team's official website. "We've earned that right to play them at home, to be on our home field in front of our fans." With the "12th Man" crowd there to lend support, the Seahawks have won six straight home playoff games, highlighted by a 34-14 victory over Carolina in the NFC championship game during the 2005 season. The noise level in the stadium even produced a small earthquake during last Saturday's 23-15 win over New Orleans. "We understand that we have to go up there in a hostile environment with a really good football team and do what a lot of people probably aren't going to pick us to do," San Francisco safety Donte Whitner said. "That's OK with us. We understand what we have to do."
A three-point win in the bitter cold at Green Bay in the wild-card round and a 23-10 victory at second-seeded Carolina last weekend further increased the 49ers' confidence level. "Our team has been in a lot of good primers, been through a lot of situations, been through tough environments, whether it be weather or opposing stadiums," coach Jim Harbaugh, whose team can be the first to make the Super Bowl in consecutive years since New England during the 2003 and '04 seasons.
Kaepernick completed 50.0 percent of his passes for 371 yards with a touchdown and four interceptions in his two starts at Seattle. His 87 yards on nine carries highlighted San Francisco's 29-3 loss there in Week #2. However, Kaepernick is 4-1 in the postseason, including 3-0 on the road. He posted a 92.7 passer rating and threw six TDs and three INTs in those five games, while rushing for 377 yards and four touchdowns with a 9.4-yard per-carry average. Kaepernick's game has improved with the presence of Michael Crabtree, who has 30 receptions for 435 yards with a TD in seven contests -- including playoffs -- since making his season debut Dec. 1 after an Achilles injury.
Tight end Vernon Davis caught his seventh TD in his seventh playoff game last week while teammate Anquan Boldin had eight catches for 136 yards. Boldin is looking to make it to the Super Bowl for the second straight year after helping Baltimore beat San Francisco 34-31 in 2013 with six receptions for 104 yards and a score. "We're a different team than we were the first time we played (the Seahawks) up there," said Kaepernick, who threw for 127 yards, three interceptions and was sacked three times in that meeting.
San Francisco (14-4), though, still must find a way to get the best of a Seattle defense that led the league with 273.6 yards and 14.4 points allowed. Boldin caught 13 passes for 208 yards and a TD in a 34-28 season-opening win over Green Bay, but the next week was held to one reception for seven at Seattle. He did make six catches for 93 yards in the rematch at San Francisco on Dec. 8, but the 49ers needed a 22-yard field goal with 26 seconds left to win 19-17. San Francisco's Frank Gore, who had 110 yards on 17 rushes in last month's matchup, is averaging 4.9 per carry in seven postseason games. However, he's rushed 15 times for 44 yards in the last two at Seattle.
The Seahawks allowed New Orleans to run for 108 yards and Marques Colston to make 11 catches for 144 yards and a TD last weekend, but they limited star tight end to Jimmy Graham to one catch for eight and the Saints to a 3-of-12 performance on third down. "(Reaching the NFC championship is) what we want to do, and we're not going to let anybody come in our way and take this from us," Seattle safety Kam Chancellor said. Teammate Marshawn Lynch pounded his way for 140 yards and two touchdowns, including a 31-yard score late in the fourth quarter. It was the third playoff game of at least 131 yards for Lynch, who has averaged 5.2 per carry and scored five TDs in five postseason contests.
He's averaged 112.5 yards and scored four TDs in four home games versus San Francisco, which gave up 90.8 rushing yards per game in the regular season. Lynch has also caught a touchdown pass in each of the last two home contests in the series. Seattle's Russell Wilson has thrown for five TDs and two INTs while posting a 101.4 passer rating in the past two at home against the 49ers. Despite his team's recent home success in the series, Wilson knows a serious challenge awaits against a San Francisco team that's allowed averages of 15.5 points and 304.9 yards over the last eight weeks. "The Seattle Seahawks want to bring something special to the city," he said. "To do that, we have to play the best 60 minutes of our lives."
•PREGAME NOTES: The 49ers will be playing in their secound straight NFC Championship, producing a 1-1 record the last two years. San Francisco defeated Atlanta 28-24 on the road in last year’s title game but lost to the N.Y. Giants in overtime (20-17) in the 2011-12 playoffs.... The Seahawks have only played in the NFC Championship once and they captured a 34-14 victory at home over Carolina in the 2005-06 title game.... The road team has won the last three NFC Championships.... The last six NFC title games have been decided by seven points or less.
•KEY STATS
-- SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 29.0, OPPONENT 17.5.
-- SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 20.2, OPPONENT 14.8.
-- SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) in all games where the first half total is between 18 and 21 this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 17.9, OPPONENT 7.3.
-- SAN FRANCISCO is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 13.3, OPPONENT 5.8.
-- SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 17.5, OPPONENT 6.2.
-- CARROLL is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) revenging a loss against opponent as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 26.7, OPPONENT 18.5.
-- CARROLL is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.2, OPPONENT 19.2.
-- CARROLL is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 27.0, OPPONENT 26.1.
-- SEATTLE is 19-4 against the 1rst half line (+14.6 Units) in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 13.4, OPPONENT 8.0.
-- CARROLL is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) off 2 consecutive home wins as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 7.3, OPPONENT 15.0.
-- CARROLL is 12-3 against the 1rst half line (+8.7 Units) in home games revenging a road loss against opponent in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Carroll 14.1, OPPONENT 6.9.
-- CARROLL is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 12.9, OPPONENT 16.2.
-- CARROLL is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 19.0, OPPONENT 14.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
San Francisco and Seattle have split their last four meetings with the home team winning each contest. During this span, the Seahawks have covered all four games, winning by 29 and 26 points at home while only losing by a combined nine points in the road setbacks. The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series.
--SEATTLE is 16-9 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--SEATTLE is 14-11 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--12 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--SEATTLE is 17-8 versus the first half line when playing against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992.
--15 of 25 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
--49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Seattle.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--49ers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--49ers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Under is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
--Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards.
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