Service Plays Sunday 1/18/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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Thank you, wilheim..

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Guaranteed Pick: Carlo Campanella

Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals Jan 18 2009 3:00PM
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
Reason: Arizona is playing awesome football right now, winning 3 games in a row while scoring 30 points or more the last 3 games, including Playoff wins over Atlanta 30-24 and Carolina 33-13. They now return home where they're 7-2 this season and averaging 30.2 points per game! The offense is lead by QB Kurt Warner and RB James, both who have Super Bowl rings- Combine that postseason experience with home field advantage and the WRONG TEAM is favored. They host a Philadelphia squad that was 5-5-1 after 11 games this year and are just 5-4-1 on the road, which isn't very good considering they were road Favorites in 6 of those 10 games! Take the points as these Eagles make their 3rd straight road trip and face a hot team that knows how to win at home and will use their "Dog Status" as motivation for a Super Bowl berth.
10* Play On Arizona

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettorsworld

3* Ravens +6 over Steelers - You've heard the saying, "there's more than one way to skin a cat". Well, there's more than one way to get a number on a football game. We use two primary methods to come up with a number on games. One, is the standard power rating. Power Ratings are adjusted each week to reflect a teams current performance and serve to provide a handicapper with a rough number on the actual point difference between two teams. We have kept our own football numbers for many years, but there are also a ton of other well known and very good ratings published for free on the net. Far too many to name but most do a very good job. The other method we use to get a number is the yards per point figure which you have seen us refer to often. This number can be used in many ways. You can take season to date, last 5 games, home and away, common opponents and so on.

Getting a number is a starting point. There's a saying in sports handicapping, "you need a number to beat a number". You need to take the guesswork out of it. There's always variables to consider, such as, weather, a teams state of mind, home field advantage and so on. But your own number is essential as a starting point. When using these various methods to get a number on this game, the end result is unanimous.........it all comes back Baltimore.

We have mentioned since the end of the regular season that Baltimore was putting up some numbers comparable to past Super Bowl teams, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. So it's no surprise to us that they are here in the AFC title game. Many say they were outplayed by the Titans, that the Titans gave the game away with costly turnovers. That's only partially correct. Turnovers are created. They are created by pressure, by hard hitting, by aggressively getting after the ball. The Titans didn't give the game away. The Ravens went out and did what they do best. The Ravens TOOK the game away. Also worth noting is the fact that the Steelers played the very same Titans in a meaningful game towards seasons end, and came up empty to the tune of 31-14.

As mentioned, we used the methods described above to come up with a number, or numbers on this game. The power ratings, both our own and another well known rating come back with the Steelers by less than a field goal. When we break it down using yards per point using just the last 6 games for both teams, our number is Baltimore by 4. Using yards per point home numbers for the Steelers and away numbers for the Ravens, we come up with pick. Using both teams entire season to date, the yards per point number on the game is also pick. Every method we use, and every time frame we consider, it all comes back Steelers by a field goal or less. Or in the case of yards per point using the last 6 games, a straight up Ravens win.

You can also use the two games these two teams played against each other in making a case for the Ravens. After all, they played an overtime game earlier in the year, and then a game in December in which the Steelers won it on the final drive of the game. The Steelers had to come from behind to win in both games. In the game earlier in the year, it was a fairly even game statistically. The Steelers won the stat battle in the December game, but again, it took a score on the final drive, a controversial one at that, to win it.

It's not rocket science. Defense will be the name of the game this Sunday. Both teams will have trouble moving the ball. The game, like so many others, will be decided by mistakes, penalties, turnovers. The Ravens are on a roll. They have been putting up Super Bowl like numbers for the last half of the year. These teams are very familiar with each other. There's no reason this game, like the two previous, doesn't come down to the 4th quarter, perhaps the last drive, perhaps overtime. When you handicap games, you look for a slight edge when comparing your number with the actual number. We have that here across the board. We will gladly take +6 here in this spot. Presented with this exact same situation 100 times, you will win 55 times or more. That's enough to provide us with a long term profit. We may win, or lose, this particular play, but long term, it's a winner. So, we play. 3* Ravens +6 over Steelers
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brandon Lang

Conference Championships

50 Dime Steelers -


15 Dime Cardinals -


FREE - Eagles/Cardinals Under (See Daily Video for your analysis on this game)


SPECIAL NOTE REGARDING THE POINT SPREADS - in these two games, we want to make sure we're laying just -6 points with Pittsburgh and getting 3-1/2 with Arizona. If your book has anything different, I am advising you to purchase the 1/2 point to your advantage, whichever way that may be - down with the Steelers and up for the Cardinals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SportsInsights

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The Public loves the Ravens right now. The Ravens pounded the Miami Dolphins in the first round of the playoffs before holding the powerhouse Tennessee Titans to 10 points last week. More than 60% of the bets of the bets are coming in on the Baltimore Ravens. However, the line opened at Pittsburgh -5 and has moved to Pittsburgh -6. This means that some "big money" is taking the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We'll "bet against the Public" and take the Steelers -- tagging along with the "big money" or "smart money." The Ravens have been on a roll -- and six points seems like a lot of points to give in what might be a low-scoring game. This is a good contrarian value on several levels. Take the Steelers and give the points.

Play On Pittsburgh Steelers



Games to Watch - Playoff Editions (0-2 = 0.0%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -6
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Phenom (5-3)

Philly
Pitt
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Francesca radio host & YES network

40-23 for the Season Championship Sunday

NFC Title - Philadelphia 31-21
AFC Title - Pittsburgh 24-10

 

[pure]

STU fEINER Sunday Playoffs??

Waive the Rating Playoff game of the Year
Baltimore-Pittsburgh??????

2500 Dime High Roller Club Blowout
Philadelphia-Arizona????

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spylock

1 unit philly
1 unit baltimore

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GINA

Championship Games
Sunday, January 18th , 3:00 p.m. est.
National Football Conference

(6) Philadelphia Eagles (11-6-1) at (4) Arizona Cardinals (11-7) CARDINALS


January 18th , 6:30 p.m. est.
American Football Conference

(6) Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at (1) Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4) STEELERS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Allen Eastman/ACE ACE

$2500.00 Philadelphia (-4) over Arizona (3 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 18)
I’m going to stay on Philadelphia’s bandwagon and I just think that Donovan McNabb is playing better than any quarterback left in the postseason. Philadelphia already hammered Arizona once this year, winning 48-20 earlier this year in Philly. They won that game because they are just that much better than the Cardinals and will win again here for the same reason. Arizona has been a great story, but I don’t think that they have three consecutive outright wins as an underdog in them. Their defense has played pretty well, but they still gave up 24 points to Atlanta at home and gave up some decent drives to the Panthers before Carolina shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers. Philadelphia has the experience and they have owned Arizona, historically. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The points won’t matter in this one.

$2000.00 Baltimore (+6) over Pittsburgh (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 18)
We’ve been riding the Ravens so why stop now? Baltimore lost both of the previous games by a combined seven points so I think that six points is too many here in a game that the Ravens will win outright. The Ravens defense has the look of the 2000 championship unit and I think that they are just too tough to beat three times in one season. Pittsburgh has lost three straight home conference championship games, falling to New England in 2005, 2002, and Denver in 1998. I think they come up short once again. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in road playoff games, 7-3 ATS in all playoff games, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games straight up against the Steelers.

$300.00 TEASER: Take Baltimore (+16), ‘Under’ 44.0 Baltimore at Pittsburgh, and ‘Over’ 37.0 Philadelphia at Arizona

 

[99steak]

I want to see Bettingresource's plays for this sunday. Especially their wise-guy 10/10 unit picks. Last 3 years looks very good.


2008 Picks W-L-P (%) Risked Returned Profit (+/-) Yield
January 25 14-10-1 (58.33%) 250 290.93 +40.93 16.37%
February 0 No Picks 0 0 0 0
March 0 No Picks 0 0 0 0
April 0 No Picks 0 0 0 0
May 24 11-12-1 (47.82%) 240 223.47 -16.53 -6.89%
June 23 12-9-2 (57.14%) 230 258.39 +28.39 12.34%
July 20 11-9-0 (55.00%) 200 222.25 +22.25 11.13%
August 27 10-15-2 (40.00%) 270 225.42 -44.58 -16.51%
September 23 15-8-0 (65.21%) 230 304.56 +74.56 32.42%
October 25 19-6-0 (76%) 250 387.65 +137.65 55.05%
November 26 15-11-0 (57.69%) 260 312.35 +52.35 20.13%
December 26 18-8-0 (69.23%) 260 363.55 +103.55 39.83%
Total 219 125-88-6 (58.68%) 2190 2588.57 +398.57 18.20%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007 Picks W-L-P (%) Risked Returned Profit (+/-) Yield
January 25 16-9-0 (64.00%) 250 305.60 +55.60 22.24%
February 20 11-8-1 (57.89%) 200 220.10 +20.10 10.05%
March 21 13-8-0 (61.90%) 210 274.00 +64.00 30.48%
April 33 18-14-1 (56.25%) 330 366.66 +36.66 11.11%
May 26 15-11-0 (57.69%) 260 324.40 +64.40 24.77%
June 28 16-10-2 (61.53%) 280 347.81 +67.81 24.22%
July 27 18-9-0 (66.67%) 270 373.6 +103.6 38.37%
August 28 12-15-1 (44.44%) 280 257.00 -23.00 -8.21%
September 26 14-10-2 (58.33%) 260 300.80 +40.80 15.69%
October 28 14-14-0 (50.00%) 280 274.50 -5.50 -1.96%
November 25 15-10-0 (60.00%) 250 296.60 +46.60 18.64%
December 17 10-7-0 (58.82%) 170 198.28 +28.28 16.64%
Total 304 172-125-7 (57.91%) 3040 3539.35 +499.35 16.43%

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2006 Picks W-L-P (%) Risked Returned Profit (+/-) Yield
January 23 13-8-2 (61.90%) 230 276.75 +46.75 20.33%
February 21 12-9-0 (57.14%) 210 236.98 +26.98 12.85%
March 25 19-6-0 (76.00%) 250 362.98 +112.98 45.19%
April 17 10-6-1 (62.50%) 170 212.55 +42.55 25.03%
May 23 14-9-0 (60.87%) 230 282.35 +52.35 22.76%
June 19 12-7-0 (63.15%) 190 238.67 +48.67 25.61%
July 21 12-9-0 (57.14%) 210 237.41 +27.41 13.05%
August 24 13-9-2 (59.09%) 240 275.25 +35.25 14.69%
September 25 18-7-0 (72.00%) 250 248.12 +98.12 39.25%
October 25 15-9-1 (62.50%) 250 306.33 +56.33 22.53%
November 25 15-10-0 (60.00%) 250 293.85 +43.85 17.54%
December 25 14-10-1 (58.33%) 250 285.66 +35.66 14.26%
Total 273 167-99-7 (62.78%) 2730 3356.90 +626.90 22.96%

 

[SOUTHPHILLYBUDDA6]

pregame posters

2 vey good ones

"the boys" the best nfl capper that i've seen in the past 6 years
pitts steelers!!!!!!!!!!

Jedi mind tricks
50* goy
pitts steelers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly's Greensheet

SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST: Any NFL playoff team facing a third consecutive road game
PLAY AGAINST: Philadelphia, Baltimore (PLAY ON: Arizona, Pittsburgh)
28-15-1, 65.1% since 1981

HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
NFL: All trends are Against the Spread unless noted (S/U):
Philadelphia is 7-10-1 L18 as R/F – Philadelphia is 5-0 L5 road playoff games
Arizona is 15-8-1 L24 as H/D – Arizona is 15-8 L23 home games
Baltimore is 8-3 L11 as underdogs – Baltimore is 6-2 L8 vs. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 8-11 L19 as favorites – Pittsburgh is 6-10 L16 home playoff games

Philadelphia (-3) ARIZONA (48) 4:00 PM

Few gave the Cardinals a shot to win one game in the playoffs yet Arizona has been arguably the most impressive team in the playoffs so far with a complete dismantling of the heavily favored Panthers. Turnovers played a huge role in the game but Arizona responded well to allowing an opening score and has been a much better defensive team than most are giving credit. Arizona has allowed an average of just 259 yards per game in two playoff games, the best of any team still standing. Everyone knew Arizona had a dangerous passing attack but the surprise has been an effective ground game and the Cardinals should actually have a distinct edge on the ground in this match-up with the Eagles. Philadelphia has succeeded against superior defenses in knocking off Minnesota and New York but this will be a very tough situation, facing a third straight road game and cross country travel. Many will point to the regular season meeting between these teams where Philadelphia clobbered the Cardinals 48-20 on Thanksgiving but Arizona had four turnovers in that game. It was also a much more favorable situation for the Eagles as QB McNabb had been benched the previous game in a blowout loss against Baltimore and the Cardinals were coming off a hard fought narrow loss to the Giants. Statistically the Eagles own the 3rd best defense in the NFL, joining Baltimore and Pittsburgh as the three top defenses in the league and teams still playing this week. The Eagles have also allowed just over ten points per game in the past five games. Although Arizona was blown out against Philadelphia the Cardinals did score more against the Eagles than any other team in the second half of the season. Turnovers will be the name of the game for the Cardinals as they have had a few ugly losses built on turnovers and a few big wins built on turnovers.Although Philadelphia has the superior defense the offense has also gone through a lot of frustrating stretches and although McNabb is being praised for great play he has four turnovers in two postseason games this year. Kurt Warner has thrown an interception in each playoff win but remember Warner is the QB in this match-up that has won a Super Bowl. McNabb is the QB that has lost three NFC Championship games. Although Philadelphia’s defense seems to be the team more likely to force turnovers with the great pressure the defense can put on opposing QBs, the Eagles will have the more one-dimensional offense and Arizona’s defense has been playing with a lot of intensity. Favorites in the postseason facing a third straight road game have never won. CARDINALS 28-27 RATING 2: ARIZONA (+3) RATING 2 : ‘OVER 48’

PITTSBURGH (-5) Baltimore (33) 7:30 PM

Both teams have had a lot of things go their way in the playoffs as Baltimore has received eight turnovers in two games. The Ravens were badly out-gained last week against Tennessee and although most want to credit the vaunted Ravens defense for creating turnovers there has certainly been an element of good fortune considering the timing and positioning of the turnovers. The Ravens also got help from a non-call on an obvious delay of game penalty that would have made a critical third-down play more difficult on the game winning drive. If the Ravens have been fortunate, the Steelers have been downright lucky. Pittsburgh got every break imaginable last week to turn a tight game into a blowout in a dominant 3rd quarter where San Diego ran just one offensive play. It has been a common theme for the Steelers this season as a number of close and questionable calls as well as several unusual fluky plays have gone Pittsburgh’s way. Last week it was a tipped pass turned into a suspect interception that survived review, an iffy 60-yard pass interference penalty, and a punt landing on a San Diego player’s head, not to mention a punt return for a touchdown. It was an impressive showing from the Pittsburgh defense against the run but QB Rivers passed for over 300 yards with good numbers last week and keep in mind the Chargers were an 8-8 team playing without its best offensive and defensive players across the country in bad weather. Pittsburgh had the top ranked defense in the league this season in total yards and points allowed but the numbers were not nearly as strong against playoff caliber teams. These teams played two close games in the regular season with Pittsburgh winning both, one in OT and the other on one of the most questionable officiating decisions of the season. Baltimore rookie QB Joe Flacco has been exactly what Baltimore has needed but he has simply avoided making mistakes and has not posted strong numbers in two playoff games. The Baltimore running game has had as much success as anyone against Pittsburgh, topping 100 yards in both meetings this season. Flacco passed for a total of just 230 yards in the two games however. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 91 yards in the last seven meetings with the Ravens so even though the Steelers running game re-emerged last week late in the game against a tired San Diego defense, RB Parker and company should struggle this week. Although we feel this Pittsburgh team is overrated, the Ravens defense is banged up with four starters already questionable this week and facing a third straight road game with a rookie QB and coach is a daunting task. The Steelers have not been a trustworthy team as a favorite this season but too much positive momentum appears to be with this team and it is tough to go against them. Pittsburgh has more big game experience and home field edge still means something despite the lopsided results in favor of road teams so far this postseason. STEELERS 17-10 RATING 1: PITTSBURGH (-5) RATING 2: ‘UNDER 33’

OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
Philadelphia/Arizona ‘OVER 48’

Although both teams deserve a ton of credit on defense in delivering the past two wins , this game should be dominated by the passing game. Both teams struggled to run the ball in the regular season and although Arizona has had some success in the postseason it will be much tougher to run against the Eagles defense. This game should be decided by two prolific veteran passing QBs that have both been to Super Bowls but also can be turnover prone. Last week both NFC games stayed ‘under’ but both were on pace to go ‘over’ until late turnovers crippled several drives and took away scoring opportunities. These teams combined for 68 points in the regular season meeting and weather will not be an issue in this venue.Neither team will likely run the ball with great success which will slow the game down and likely create a high scoring game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GOLDSHEET AFC/NFC Championship PREDICTIONS

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BALTIMORE (13-5) at PITTSBURGH (13-4)
Sunday, January 18
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Balt. 13-5 14-4 24 15 144 172 46-22-17 82 188 28-5-18 20 5.0 4.1
Pitt. 13-4 10-7 22 15 109 205 43-19-20 76 164 24-7-15 6 2.5 4.4

*PITTSBURGH 24 - Baltimore 13—The remarkable, undaunted Joe Flacco
has already become the first rookie QB to win his first two playoff games, both
on the road no less! The former Delaware star is reminding many of the
performance of another 6-6 rookie from a largely unheralded college who took
his team to the AFC title game in his maiden voyage just four years ago, that—
of course—being none other than the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger from Miami-
O. But in this battle between the league’s two most ferocious defenses, it’s
probably good to remember that Roethlisberger (three interceptions) lost his
first AFC title game 41-27 to the Patriots.
In the first of two AFC North meetings between these two familiar foes this
season, Pittsburgh gained a 23-20 OT victory in Pittsburgh September 29 after
the very young Flacco led his team on a late, 76-yard drive against the Steelers’
famed zone-blitz defense and in front of a roaring crowd to tie the game at 20.
In the second meeting in Maryland, Pittsburgh (culminating a 92-yard drive)
won 13-9 on a last-minute, scrambling pass from Roethlisberger to Santonio
Holmes that most Raven fans remain unconvinced ever broke the plane of the
end zone.
It might be important to note that Flacco had more problems in the second
(11 of 28, 0 TDs, 2 ints., 2 sacks) than in the first (16 of 31, 192 yards, 1 TD, 0
ints., 5 sacks) of those two games. And, against what is often the league’s most
confusing defense, and in the crucible of playoff pressure that once melted the
young Roethlisberger, it will take a Herculean effort by Flacco to avoid key
mistakes. Moreover, let’s remember that both Roethlisberger and RB Willie
Parker (146 YR last week vs. S.D.) are now much healthier after battling injuries
for much of the season. In the first Raven game, Parker was out, while
Roethlisberger was beat up after being sacked nine times the previous week vs.
the Eagles. In the second meeting, Parker was not yet 100%. Parker (27 for
146 yards) showed more speed, and Roethlisberger threw freely and accurately
last week against the Chargers.
Even though the Ravens won their Divisional Round game at Tennessee,
let’s remember they were outgained nearly 2 to 1 (391 to 211) and benefited
greatly from the early injury sustained by Titan RB Chris Johnson, a slew of
Tennessee penalties, and a key Titan fumble inside the Baltimore five in the
closing minutes.
In the eight games of the playoffs so far this season, the team that has
emerged victorious has inevitably been the one that made the fewest mistakes.
Thus, much credit goes to the Ravens for their five takeaways vs. the Dolphins
and three vs. the Titans. Rookie HC John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator
Cam Cameron have done an excellent job minimizing the pressure on their
young QB. Steelers, Baltimore’s own powerful defense will hold little or no advantage vs.
Pittsburgh’s, which was first in yards, first in points against, second against the
run, first against the pass, and second in sacks. And it’s the playoff veteran QB
(Roethlisberger) who is most likely to avoid the killer miscues that so frequently
doom young players in title games.
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PHILADELPHIA (11-6-1) at ARIZONA (11-7)
Sunday, January 18
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Philad. 11-6 12-6 26 17 102 245 49-16-25 98 180 33-9-19 4 2.5 4.6
Arizona 11-7 10-7 27 26 78 287 58-16-35 106 218 57-15-39 7 -.8 5.7

ARIZONA 29 - Philadelphia 24—This is hardly new territory for Philly, which
participated in four straight NFC title games earlier this decade (2001-’02-’03-
’04), with many of the same protagonists involved (HC Andy Reid, QB Donovan
McNabb, LT Tra Thomas, RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith, S Brian
Dawkins) in most of those games. Conversely, Arizona is truly in uncharted
territory, reaching its first title game of any kind since the franchise was based
in Chicago in 1948. But before conceding any playoff experience edge to the
Eagles, remember that there are several important components on the
Cardinal roster that indeed have significant postseason pedigrees. QB Kurt
Warner has played in two Super Bowls with the Rams, winning one of those;
HC Ken Whisenhunt and asst. HC Russ Grimm were key members of the
Pittsburgh staff that won the Super Bowl three years ago; RB Edgerrin James
a veteran of several playoff outings during his days at Indy.
We also don’t want to put too much emphasis on Philly’s rousing 48-20
Thanksgiving night win at the cold Linc over the Cards, a game in which the
dynamics bore little or no resemblance to this week’s contest. The Eagles
were in a do-or-die situation that night, needing a win to keep their flickering
playoff hopes alive, with McNabb given one last chance to save his starting job
after being benched the week before at Baltimore. Conversely, Arizona had all
but sewn up the NFC West and was understandably flat, falling behind 21-0
early in the 2nd Q and never having a look at the game. The motivated McNabb
passed for 4 TDs, while the disinterested Cards never even bothered to
balance their offense, running the ball all of 10 times that night.
Needless to say, many factors are different for the rematch, not the least of
which is the venue (this time, home advantage to Arizona) and the fact the
Cards have caught an updraft the past few weeks when rededicating
themselves to establishing the run. To that end, the re-emergence of James,
along with underrated rookie Tim Hightower, has provided an infantry diversion
(including an impressive 145 YR vs. Carolina’s robust stop unit last week in
Charlotte) that has made Warner’s job a lot easier. The expected return of All-
Pro WR Anquan Boldin means Warner will have the top two NFC ‘08 receivers
(Boldin & Larry Fitzgerald) available, as well as the quietly effective Steve
Breaston, himself a 1000-yard pass catcher this season. Warner’s quick
release, which mostly kept him out of trouble at Charlotte, figures to do the
same vs. the Eagle pass rush. And the souped-up Cardinal “O” has a lot more
confidence and firepower than the recent opponents Jim Johnson’s
impressive Philly stop unit has stonewalled (none of the last 6 having
scored more than 14 points).
Granted, McNabb’s stirring recovery from the abyss has generated headlines, and we don’t expect McNabb to self-destruct as did Jake Delhomme last week. But on the biggest stages in his pro career,
remember that McNabb is 1-4 in conference title games and Super Bowls, and
even diehard Eagle supporters admit that McNabb’s receiving targets do not
compare with Warner’s. As long as the Cardinal “D” continues to make the
plays it has the past two weeks vs. Atlanta & Carolina, the team playing better
football at the moment might indeed be the one getting the points from the
oddsmakers. And what long seemed impossible might actually happen...a Bill
Bidwill-owned team in the Super Bowl!
(08-PHIL. 48-Ariz. 20...P.32-12 P.40/185 A.10/25 P.27/39/0/252

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sweep

Early Look:

3* Pittsburg by 13

1* Over 48 Cards/Arizona

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Memo

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
PHILADELPHIA AT ARIZONA +3
O/U 47
Recommendation: Arizona
Situational - Arizona returns home after winning the NFC West and Philadelphia making the playoffs by way of the Wild Card. Fundamentals - Arizona’s stigma of having a soft defense and being one-dimensional on offense hasn’t held true through two postseason games. The Cardinals held Atlanta’s vaunted run game to 65 yards and Carolina to 75. They had just 13 INTs during the regular season but seven over the last two weeks. Overall, this looks like a team that is finally maximizing its talent after coasting through much of the regular season playing in the weak NFC West. Philadelphia shut down the passing games of Minnesota and the Giants. The key looks to be keeping Kurt Warner on his feet. The veteran has been sacked just once in two postseason games and with weather not an issue, we expect Arizona to have success through the air. Game Notes - Arizona is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this season. Both of their home losses ironically came against Minnesota and the NY Giants. Edgerrin James’ top four games in terms of carries resulted in Arizona going 4-0 SU and ATS. Two of those efforts came in the playoffs. When he fails to get 10 carries, the Cardinals are 4-6 SU. Final Take - With a strong home field advantage and catching a field goal -- potentially +3.5 or +4 by game time -- we’ll ignore the home woes for playoff teams and back the Cardinals.




AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH -6
O/U 33.5
Recommendation: Pittsburgh
Situational - The Ravens will be looking for their third consecutive road win in the playoffs. They will also be searching for their first win in three tries against division rival Pittsburgh. Fundamentals - In four games against Pittsburgh and Tennessee, Joe Flacco completed just 51.8% of his passes. In both playoff games, he continues to struggle, failing to throw a passing
touchdown. The story has been the Ravens’ +7 turnover margin in the playoffs. Without those takeaways, Baltimore would have lost to Tennessee and won’t have a shot against Pittsburgh. The Steelers finished the season ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in every key defensive category
and we look for another strong effort against a suspect Ravens’ offense. Game Notes - The Ravens may be without three starters on the defensive side as Terrell Suggs (shoulder), Samari Rolle (groin) and Jim Leonhard (concussion) are listed as questionable on the early reports. Final Take - After watching Tennessee and Miami move the ball with relative ease we question whether the Ravens’ defense is truly on par with Pittsburgh. We know the Steelers
have proven commodities on the offensive end with Big Ben and Hines Ward. The same cannot be said for Joe Flacco and company. We’ll call for the luck to run out for Baltimore in the turnover category and for Pittsburgh to comfortably move on to the Super Bowl.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JARED KLEIN
CALGARY AT COLORADO (1/18)
Recommendation: Colorado
Calgary find themselves in a tough spot this Sunday when they travel to Colorado. The Flames will be playing their second straight game and their third in four nights. Road teams in this situation this season are just 29-55, 34% SU. Backing the Avalanche at home has been profitable with a 54-34, 61% mark over the last two seasons. Colorado has also been very good against the Northwest Division at the Pepsi Center over the last two seasons going 21-12, 64%. Despite losing key offensive players like forwards
Joe Sakic and Paul Stastny, the Avalanche have won three straight games and much of their success has been because of goaltender Andrew
Raycroft. Raycroft has won nine of 10 games this season and has allowed only 15 goals over his last seven games. “I feel good out there,” Raycroft was quoted as saying. “I feel like I have a good rhythm. I’m seeing
everything and seeing the plays well.” Colorado is playing with a lot of confidence and with the situation that Calgary is in on Sunday we’ll back the Avalanche to continue their solid play. Back the Avalanche.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Edge Vegas Experts

Eagles

Under Balt/Pitt

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

PHILADELPHIA (11-6-1) at ARIZONA (11-7)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 18 -- 3:00 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
VEGAS LINE: PHILADELPHIA BY 3½ -- OVER/UNDER: 48
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Philadelphia 48.6 . 26- 18 .. 20-16 .. 102- 98 .. 245- 179 .. + 4 . Philadelphia
Arizona ....... 47.3 . 27- 26 .. 21-20 .... 79-105 .. 287- 218 .. + 7 . by 2.4 Pts
Fittingly, this contest continues the rematch flavor that dominates this year's NFL
playoffs, especially in the Divisional & Conference Title contests, in which all six
games feature teams that have already played each other this season. One hardly
requires a long memory to recall the brutal 48-20 slaying of the Cards, by Philly, on
Thanksgiving Day, in which McNabb was a brilliant 27-of-39 for 260 yds & 4 TDs
(no picks). And check a 185-25 RY edge, to boot. That game jump-started the
Eagles' current run 6-1 SU/ATS run. As a matter of fact, in their last 6 games, that
Philly "D" has allowed just 4 TDs, 10.8 ppg, with 12 takeaways. Note holding the
Giants to just 3 FGs on 5 drives inside the Eagle 20. McNabb: 45-of-74 for 500
yds in the playoffs, leading Philly to its 5th title game in the last 8 years. So, this
one should be fairly easy, right? Wrong. The fact of the matter, is that the Cards
are a rejuvenated squad, which has rediscovered its early season magic. As a
result, 'Zona has become the first-ever 9-7 (regular season) team to host a title
game. As noted last week, the Cards have won only 4 playoff tilts in their franchise
history, with this marking their 2nd post-season hosting role since 1947. Sure,
they have an explosive "O", led by Warner (34/16), who is still "money" when given
time, along with a bevy of quality receivers (Fitzgerald: 166 receiving yds LW). But
check a revitalized "D", which has held the #5 & #4 rushing teams to 67.5 RYpg
the last 2 weeks, allowing only 32 RYs over the final 57 minutes vs Carolina. With
Boldin back, no reason 'Zona can't stay with yet another of the elites. To the wire.
PROPHECY: ARIZONA 23 - Philadelphia 20 RATING: 5




BALTIMORE (13-5) at PITTSBURGH (13-4)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 18 -- 6:30 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
VEGAS LINE: PITTSBURGH BY 5 -- OVER/UNDER: 33
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Baltimore .... 49.3 . 23- 15 .. 18-14 .. 144- 81 .. 173- 188 .. +20 . Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh ... 48.8 . 23- 15 .. 18-15 .. 109- 76 .. 204- 164 .. + 6 . by 1.6 Pts
It has been quite a playoff season thus far, with the dog not only covering 5-of-8
games, but winning all of those 5 outright. Ditto the visitor. As a matter of fact, this
past week saw 3 road teams (underdogs, all) winning outright for the first time
since 1971. Quite something. The only squad to uphold the honor of the home
chalks, was this Steeler outfit, which, as every knowledgeable fan is aware, owns
the top defense in the NFL. As a result, Pitt has earned the right to host its sixth
AFC Title game in the last 15 years (1-4 so far). Their rushing "D" was front-&-
center, in its win over the Chargers, holding SanDiego to 15 RYs, after it piled up
167 vs the Colts, the previous week. Offensively, Pitt ranks just 22nd, but a healthy
Parker sure spruced up that "O", with 146 RYs (5.4 ypr), in that 35-pt display, with
Ben a solid 17-of-26. By the way, the Steelers entered the playoffs with the worst
"O" among post-season squads. The Ravens just keep on doing it, taking the
Titans, despite 21-9 FD, 391-211 yd, & 34:07-25:52 time deficits. Came from a
416-144 RY edge in their previous 2 games, to a 116-50 RY deficit in that squeaking
win over Tennessee. Baltimore is on an 11-2 SU run, as well as a 15-3-1 ATS
run, allowing only 8.4 ppg in 7 of its last 8 outings. This marks the 3rd meeting of
this season for these 2, with the Steelers prevailing in the first 2, by the slimmest of
margins: OT in their 1st meeting (23-20), & by a controversial TD in their 2nd
match (13-9). The Steelers have the best home field record since the '70 merger,
but this will be a bloodbath. As they say, nothing will be left on the field after this.
PROPHECY: BALTIMORE 16 - Pittsburgh 13 RATING: 5