Mike O'Connor
GREEN BAY (-5.5) 34 Dallas 23
Sun Jan-11-2015 at 10:05 AM Pacific Rotation: 118 Over/Under 52.5
The big question in this game is the health of Aaron Rodgers and whether the calf tear/strain he exacerbated against the Lions two weeks ago is going to limit him in a significant way. He is an excellent quarterback when playing from the pocket but he becomes special when he can use his athleticism to extend plays and create opportunities down the field. We may not see much of that this game but I believe that he will still be quite effective with a game plan tailored to maximize his strengths while minimizing whatever mobility limitation he may have. It would be logical to assume that he’ll be in better shape than when he last played against the Lions with two weeks to rest his injured calf. Limited as he was, he was still quite effective. Rodgers played well against the Lions after re-injuring/aggravating his calf and engineered a 30-20 win against a very good defense but was clearly compromised with a limited framework of formations specifically designed to minimize movement. I would expect the same in this game. As a result, we can expect to see the offense operate primarily out of the shotgun or in a pistol formation that they used against the Lions. This effectively reduces Rodgers movement, limiting the opportunity to aggravate the injury, while playing to his strengths. Whatever state Rodgers is in, and no one can accurately predict how his injury will respond to game conditions, it can be assured that McCarthy will have a game plan effectively tailored to his condition.
Rodgers had an MVP like season this year (65.6% completion rate with 38 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions) and has consistently been one of the best players in the league the past seven years. His play at home is unbelievably good – in his last 16 home games he has completed 68.4% of his passes for 4,341 yards with 38 touchdowns and 0 interceptions! He hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 477 attempts at home. Overall, the Packers offense is difficult to defend not only because of Rodgers, but also because of a rush game that requires respect. Running back Eddie Lacy leads a rush offense that averages 121 yards at 4.7 ypr and Rodgers leads a passing attack that has averaged 7.6 yps against teams that allow 6.4 yps. If Rodgers is anywhere near his average, which I suspect he will be, the Packers will move the ball consistently against a Dallas defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that gain 5.5 yppl, including giving up 6.9 yps to teams that typically gain 6.4 yps. This is not a good pass defense. In addition, Dallas may be limited a bit once again as after losing one of their best defensive lineman, Henry Melton, a couple of weeks ago, they are also dealing with several other injuries in their front seven this week. The steam could be taken out of a limited pass rush unless they decide to blitz. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, that option would play right into the hands of the Packers as Rodgers quick and accurate decision making skills would more than compensate for his limited mobility. According to ESPN.com, Rodgers has the NFL’s highest Total Quarterback Rating (76.2) since 2008 and has 91 touchdowns to just 18 interceptions against the blitz. If Dallas doesn’t blitz, they’ll have a hard time getting to Rodgers as the Cowboys are ranked #28 in the NFL with a 4.9% sack rate. Last week Matthew Stafford carved up this Dallas secondary and facing a far better Green Bay offense this week, I expect that the Cowboys defense will be exposed.
When the Cowboys have the ball, they’ll try to pound the Packers on the ground with the best offensive line in the league and #1 rusher DeMarco Murray. Season long stats show the Packers to be vulnerable to the run in allowing 145 yards at 4.5 ypr but they have actually played much better in the second half of the season. In fact, since returning from their bye in Week 10 and making some schematic changes, the Packers are allowing an average of just 89 yards on the ground at 3.8 ypr. In addition, since DeMarco Murray broke a bone in his hand in the Eagles game, the Cowboys have only averaged 4.0 ypr. Leading into that game they had averaged 5.0 ypr. With a rush offense that has declined recently facing a rush defense that has improved, the Cowboys may not run the ball as well as many think in this game.
Despite back ailments, Tony Romo has been outstanding this season. He is #1 in Total QBR (just ahead of Aaron Rodgers) and has completed nearly 70% of his passes with 34 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. He has had the benefit of an excellent offensive line and running game to balance out the offense and open play-action opportunities down the field. As a result, he has generated an average of 236 yards at 7.4 yps against teams that allow 241 yards at 6.5 yps this season. Last week he faced pressure and was sacked six times and this week he’ll face a Packers team that is tied for 7th in the league with 41 sacks. The Green Bay secondary is mostly unheralded but have played well this season in allowing 226 passing yards at 6.0 yps to teams that typically gain 235 yards at 6.1 yps and are tied for 5th in the league with 18 interceptions. While Dallas should be able to move the ball and score some in this game, they clearly have the tougher match-up and will be hard pressed to keep pace with the Packers offense.
The Packers are in a good spot in this game and qualify in several good playoff situations that are 68-31-2, 39-14 and 31-16 so the technical support is certainly in favor of the Packers. My model predicts a 7.8 point Packer win as well. The Packers have a league best +14 turnover differential with nearly all of that difference attributable to interceptions, suggesting that it is more likely to sustain itself than if it were due mainly to fumbles. The Cowboys have a similar profile with a +6 margin. Rodgers just doesn’t turn the ball over at home, however, and I expect a strong game from a rested Packers defense. In addition, although Dallas has been good on the road this season, they haven’t been in an environment like this. It’s going to be difficult for a warm weather, dome-style team to play well with wind chills around 13 degrees. Tony Romo is 1-2 in his career when game-time temperatures are 32 degrees or lower. The problem for me here is that with the uncertainty around Rodgers injury, I can’t play the Packers. It’s just a strong lean to Green Bay for me.
**DENVER -7 (-105) 34 Indianapolis 19
Sun Jan-11-2015 at 01:40 PM Pacific Rotation: 120 Over/Under 53.5
The Colts were impressive in their 26-10 Wild Card win last week in Indianapolis, rolling up 483 yards at 7.0 yppl while holding the punch-less Bengals to 254 yards at 4.3 yppl. Indy’s offense did what they wanted to a Bengals defense that couldn’t generate much of a pass rush while shutting down a Cincy offense that had no one to throw to with injuries in the wide receiver and tight end groups. While impressive, their task is much harder this week as they travel to Denver to take on a Broncos team that is near the top of the league in most major statistical categories. The standout player for the Colts obviously is Andrew Luck and as he goes, so goes the team. He has had a great year without the benefit of a decent running game for a period of time and behind a shuffled and inconsistent offensive line. I think that it catches up with him here.
The Colts won’t be able to run the ball this week against an excellent run stuffing Denver defense that has allowed 79 yards at 3.7 ypr to teams that gain 110 yards at 4.3 ypr, 2nd best in the league. They’ll have to throw the ball to win, but the Broncos pass defense is excellent and features linebackers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware who have combined for 24 sacks and have led a Broncos defense that finished the regular season ranked 6th in pressure percentage. That will be a major challenge for a Colts offensive line that has started 11 different personnel combinations this season and will be playing in a hostile environment where communication will be crucial. Applying pressure up front will only help a defense that is tied for 5th in the league with 18 interceptions and has held opponents that average 6.1 yps to just 5.3 yps. While Luck looked great last week at home where he has performed well throughout his career, he has not been good on the road. In his career, Luck is just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS on the road against winning teams (>.500), losing by an average score of 21-35. With Luck the Colts are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the playoffs as he has completed just 50.5% of his passes with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions and a 29.5 Total Quarterback Rating.
On the other side, the Broncos offense has been very good and features a balanced attack that has averaged 404 total yards at 6.2 yppl against teams that allow 338 yards at 5.4 yppl. Running back CJ Anderson has been a revelation in the second half of the season, rushing for 849 yards at 4.7 ypr. He has brought real balance to an offense that is all-weather and will be tough to slow down in the postseason. Facing a Colts run defense that is just below average in allowing 113 yards at 4.4 ypr he should have some room to operate. If he does, the Broncos passing attack will be able to take advantage of an inconsistent Indianapolis pass rush to create downfield opportunities. Pressuring Manning will be key for the Colts if they expect to disrupt the Denver pass game but Manning was only sacked 17 times this season and has the shortest average time to attempt from snap of any qualifying quarterback (2.22 seconds according to ProFootballFocus). In addition, the Colt defense has over-performed due to a #2 ranked 3rd down conversion allowance rate of 33%. With middle of the road defensive efficiency stats and now facing a very good and efficient Broncos offense, that rate won’t continue in this game.
The Broncos qualify in a 110-60-4 statistical match-up situation that is 14-9-1 in the playoffs in addition to a 39-14 situation that plays on certain teams with rest. The Colts are really a one man show while the Broncos are a complete team that has been very good in every important statistical category. With an impressive Colts victory last week coupled with some concerns about Manning and his declining late season performance keeping this line at a touchdown or less I believe that there is value on the Broncos. My model favors Denver by 12.6 points and with what appears to be a pretty good match-up I’ll take the Broncos at no more than -7 for 2-stars
