Service Plays Sunday 09/13/09

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Teddy Covers

NFL Atlanta -4 (454)
NFL Tampa Bay +6 (470)
NFL Arizona -6 (472)
NFL 20* Big Ticket: Washington +6.5 (473

 

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Pointwise Phone Service

No 4*

3* New England, Ny Giants, Minnesota, Cincy

2*g. Bay, Baltimore

 

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Norm Hitzges

NFL

Triple Play--Dallas -6 vs Tampa
Double Play--San Francisco +6 vs Arizona
Double Play--NY Giants -6.5 vs Washington
Jacksonville +7 vs Indianapolis
Cincinnati -4 vs Denver
Houston -8.5 vs NY Jets
St. Louis +8.5 vs Seattle
Green Bay -3.5 vs Chicago
New England -10.5 vs Buffalo
Green Bay/Chicago Over 46
Dallas/Tampa Under 39
Washington/NY Giants Under 37
Cincinnati/Denver Under 42.5

 

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Dr. Bob

Just 1 NFL Best Bet for week 1, which is Cincinnati (-4) for 2-Stars at -4 or less. The rest of the NFL analysis is on the web-site in the free analysis section.

2 Star Selection
**CINCINNATI (-4.0) 27 Denver 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 13-Sep-09
I'll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 (-1.15 odds or less) or better.

 

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Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

3% CAROLINA +2.5 May see better numbers here by waiting

3% CINCINNATI -4

3% TAMPA BAY +6 May see better numbers here by waiting

3% NY GIANTS –6.5

3% GREEN BAY –3.5



League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 22.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.2
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3

Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.


ATLANTA –4 Miami 43.5
ATLANTA 24 MIAMI 21

BALTIMORE –13 Kansas City 36
BALTIMORE 31 KANSAS CITY 13

Philadelphia –2.5 CAROLINA 43.5
CAROLINA 30 PHILADELPHIA 23

CINCINNATI –4 Denver 42.5
CINCINNATI 27 DENVER 17

Minnesota –3.5 CLEVELAND 40
MINNESOTA 24 CLEVELAND 14

HOUSTON –4.5 NY Jets 44
HOUSTON 24 NY JETS 21

INDIANAPOLIS –7 Jacksonville 44.5
INDIANAPOLIS 24 JACKSONVILLE 17

NEW ORLEANS –13 Detroit 49
NEW ORLEANS 37 DETROIT 21

Dallas –6 TAMPA BAY 39
TAMPA BAY 23 DALLAS 21

ARIZONA –6 San Francisco 46
ARIZONA 27 SAN FRANCISCO 26

NY GIANTS –6.5 Washington 37
NY GIANTS 27 WASHINGTON 10

SEATTLE -8.5 St. Louis 40.5
SEATTLE 27 ST LOUIS 16

GREEN BAY –3.5 Chicago 46.5
GREEN BAY 33 CHICAGO 23

NEW ENGLAND –10.5 Buffalo 47.5
NEW ENGLAND 27 BUFFALO 16

San Diego –9.5 OAKLAND 43
SAN DIEGO 24 OAKLAND 13

 

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Colin Cowherd

Miami (+4.5)
N.Y. Jets (+4.5)
Dallas(-5.5)
Green Bay(-3.5)

 

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NFL Week 1 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports betting. We don't handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. SportsInsights.com collects betting statistics from seven major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time line movement to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. We learn which way every game is being bet. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights' unique Public betting statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Atlanta Falcons -4 over Miami Dolphins

The Atlanta Falcons is an interesting play highlighted by certain NFL sports marketplace indicators. When the lines for the first week of the season went up, much of the early action was coming in on the Dolphins. The heavy betting on Miami had SportsInsights' analysts keying in on Atlanta as a potential "contrarian" bet. However, during the past few days, "sharp money" started landing on Atlanta. The "betting percentages" have evened out, but the line has started to tick up to Atlanta -4.5 -- a sure indication of "big money" or "smart money" taking Atlanta. Betonline.com with a record of 8-2, + 5.4 units triggered a Smart Money Play on Atlanta -4.

Our readers know that we love to follow the "smart money." We also like to "bet against the public." This game is unique in that both of these indicators pointed to the Falcons at different times during the week. Both Atlanta and Miami had strong seasons last year. Although Miami surprised everyone last year, they had a relatively easy schedule due to their horrendous season the year before. Look for the Dolphins to come back to earth a bit this season. If you shop the line around you'll find a couple of solid sportsbooks offering Atlanta -3.5 which gets you off the key number 4. We getting down at Atlanta -3.5 -110 at 5Dimes.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (Bet at 5Dimes -3.5 -110)

Tampa Bay Bucs +6 over Dallas Cowboys

This is currently one of Sunday's most heavily-bet games, with over 80% of the bets taking the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is always a "public" team and SportsInsights' "betting percentages" highlight the heavy one-sided action. We like the value in "betting against the public" and taking the Tampa Bay Bucs, a very capable home underdog.

The line opened at Dallas -3 but the heavy action on "America's Team" has moved the point spread a huge 3 points. This huge line move through several "key football numbers" gives us some nice value. Take Tampa Bay as a "live home dog" and shop around for the best line you can get. You can currently get Tampa Bay +6 at nice vig -- but with the continued pounding of bets down on Dallas, the line could tick up to +6.5 or better.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 -105 (Bet at Sports Interaction +6 -105)

Washington Redskins +6.5 over New York Giants

The Giants are one of the favorites to get to the Superbowl. On the other hand, the Redskins are Superbowl long-shots who finished in the basement of the NFC East. Readers of our NFL MarketWatch series of newsletters know that we love to find "sports investing value" by taking teams that look overmatched. With about 70% of the bets coming down on the Giants, we will "bet against the Public" and take the Washington Redskins.

When seeking "contrarian value" -- we like taking underdogs in rivalries -- and particularly divisional rivalries in the NFL. The Washington Redskins should be particularly fired up for this divisional match-up on opening day. As we near game-time, the line may tick up to Washington +7. For now, we'll take the widely available +6.5.

Washington Redskins +6.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction +6.5-105)

So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week's Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.

Games to Watch (0-0-0)

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 -110
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 -105
Washington Redskins +6.5 -105

 

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Wunderdog

Game: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (Sunday 9/13 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Jacksonville +7 (-110)


The 2009-10 NFL season will open without Tony Dungy at the helm of a team for the first time in over a decade. Dungy established himself as one of the all-time greats, winning at Tampa Bay and Indianapolis, including a Super Bowl a couple of years ago. Jim Caldwell takes over for the Colts as they face the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Jags could never get anything going a year ago as nothing seemed to go right for this team. They went from 11 wins in 2007 to five in 2008 thanks primarily to an injury-riddled offensive line that forced them away from their successful play action passing attack. They lost both starting guards and their center in the very early going and no team is going to win when that happens. It led to a running game that was literally grounded and exposed QB David Garrard to 42 sacks (double his previous high). The offensive line is healthy to start the season and Garrard lost 20 pounds in the off-season, setting up a swifter QB and back to the rollout play action formations in which he has had his greatest success. Maurice Jones-Drew finally gets to tote the rock exclusively and this team will be better for it. I expect the Jags to improve tremendously on offense this year. The Jags match up well with the Colts up front and their hard-nosed smash mouth tactics have taken advantage of Indy's weak interior defense. The Jags have always played well against the Colts and these games are very frequently tight and hotly contested. The last 14 times these teams have met, 12 games were decided by eight points or less and the Jags have covered four straight at Indianapolis. Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio is now 5-1 ATS as a divisional dog of 7+ points. This is just too many points in a division rivalry like this one. The line is big because Jacksonville is underrated. I like the Jags to put up a real fight here.

 

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Maddux

#462 - NFL - 3 units on Cleveland +4 (SUN)
#464 - NFL - 3 units on Houston -4.5 (SUN)

 

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Robert Ferringo

NFL Week 1 Selection

7-Unit Play. Take #478 Green Bay (-3) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)

Note: This is my NFL Game of the Month

I recommend this play as a 6-Unit Play at 3.5 or 4.0. My full analysis will be posted with next week's opening NFL picks.

 

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Power Sweep

4* Dallas 23-9
3* Cinn. 33-17
2* Detroit (+) 17-27
2* Minn. 23-9

3* KC Under 37
3* Eagles Under 44
3* Cowboys Under 40
2* Denver Over 43
2* Jets Over 43

Power Rating Play Cinn.
System Play 49er's

 

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Pointwise Newsletter

NFL Key Releases...
3--Cincinnati (-4') over Denver 30-20
3--New England (-11) over Buffalo 31-13
4--Pittsburgh (-6) over Tennessee (THURSDAY) 20-10
4--Seattle (-8') over St. Louis 30-16
5--Carolina (+1) over Philadelphia 24-20

 

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Marc Lawrence's Playbook

NFL...
5* NY Giants over Washington by 17
4* San Francisco (+) over Arizona by 6
3* Denver (+) over Cincinnati by 7

NFL Totals...
5* Redskins/Giants UNDER
4* Vikings/Browns UNDER
3* Dolphins/Falcons UNDER

 

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Mti / killer sports
MTi’s Newsletter Side Play 4-Star Denver +3’ over CINCINNATI



MTi’s FORECAST: Denver 17 CINCINNATI 16


MTi’s Newsletter Totals Play

3-Star Washington at NY Giants UNDER 37’ – UNDER.MTi’s FORECAST: NY GIANTS 17 Washington 13

 

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SportsBook Breakers

SportsBook Breakers’ Top Total

3-Star Detroit and NEW ORLEANS Under 48.5 -

Simply put, totals should just not be this high during week one. Generally speaking, we know less about teams from year to year than we think we know. This is particularly true when dealing with offenses and defenses expected to be amongst the best and worst of the league. For instance, the Saints finished first in the NFL for total offense in 2008. Over the last three seasons, the team that finished first in offense last season finished an average of 10th the next year. This is part of the reason why the last four total offensive leaders have all gone under in week one of the next season.Similarly, the Lions were the league’s worst defense in ‘08. Teams that have finished last in total defense the last three seasons averaged 21st in that category the next year. Further proof that the total should not be so high can be found in this trend; The league is 0-15 OU since 2001 in non-divisional games on opening weekend if the total is over 45 and the game is not on the first Thursday. ( See pg. 10 for further details)The Saints’ offense should certainly be high powered once again, but will likely need time to gel with the return of RB Reggie Bush and WR Marques Colston to full strength. The Saints traditionally play conservative in game one, going under in eight of their last 10 openers.ScoringfortheLionswilllikelybemuchmorediff icult.Withrookie quarterback Matthew Stafford, it is likely that the Lions will use a very conservative playbook for the first week. Without taking chances that cause touchdown scoring turnovers, and with Kevin Smith leading an improved running game, Detroit should be able to hold the ball long enough to keep New Orleans score down.

SportsBook Breakers Prediction: NEW ORLEANS 24, Detroit 14

 

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Doc sports

4 Unit Play. #113 Take San Francisco +6 ½ over Arizona (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) Top Underdog Play. Arizona 27, San Francisco 24.

5 Unit Play. #120 Take Green Bay -3 ½ over Chicago (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC) Game of the Week. Green Bay 31, Chicago 13.

4 Unit Play. #123 Take San Diego -9 ½ over Oakland (Monday 10:15 pm ESPN) Top Monday Night Play.

 

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Strike Point Sports

Week One NFL plays

5-Unit Game of the Week. #460 Take Cincinnati -4 over Denver (9/13 Sunday, 1 p.m. EST)

3-Unit Play. #454 Take Atlanta -4 over Miami (9/13 Sunday, 1 p.m. EST)

3-Unit Play. #474 Take New York Giants -6.5 over Washington (9/13 Sunday, 1 p.m. EST)

 

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Wizzard's Picks
NFL: Sunday 9/13/09

50* Houston Texans - 4.5
30* NY Giants - 6.5

 

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NFL DUNKEL

Week 1

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

Game 453-454: Miami at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.346; Atlanta 134.249
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6; 45
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 43
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Over

Game 455-456: Kansas City at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.024; Baltimore 134.133
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 9; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9); Under

Game 457-458: Philadelphia at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 141.749; Carolina 144.653
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 46
Vegas Line: Carolina by 1; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-1); Over

Game 459-460: Denver at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.598; Cincinnati 124.924
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3); Over

Game 461-462: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 136.080; Cleveland 128.895
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 7; 36 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Under

Game 463-464: NY Jets at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 128.730; Houston 138.240
Dunkel Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 4; 43
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Under

Game 465-466: Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 128.039; Indianapolis 139.395
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-6 1/2); Over

Game 467-468: Detroit at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 123.925; New Orleans 133.469
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 12 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+12 1/2); Under

Game 469-470: Dallas at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.674; Tampa Bay 128.129
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Under

Game 471-472: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 129.708; Arizona 139.069
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-6 1/2); Over

Game 473-474: Washington at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 130.475; NY Giants 140.912
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 6; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-6); Over

Game 475-476: St. Louis at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.293; Seattle 130.343
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 6; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+7); Under

Game 477-478: Chicago at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.555; Green Bay 131.413
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Under