Service Plays Sunday 08/30/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

SUNDAY, AUGUST 30

NFL PRESEASON

Chicago (1-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (0-2, 1-1 ATS)

New Bears QB Jay Cutler didn’t have to wait long to get a shot at his old team as Chicago travels to Invesco Field to square off against the Broncos and rookie coach Josh McDaniels, the man who traded Cutler in the offseason.

In getting dealt to Chicago, Cutler ended up swapping places with former Bears starting QB Kyle Orton, who makes his debut in front of the home fans in Denver after a tumultuous first two preseason games that has seen him throw for 271 yards, but also toss four INTs and just one TD. Last week, Orton had one TD and one pick in the Broncos’ 27-13 loss in Seattle as a three-point ‘dog.

Orton and the rest of the Broncos starters will play the first three quarters tonight, with third-stringer Tom Brandstater leading the offense in the final quarter. No. 2 QB Chris Simms, who has been Denver’s most consistent passer in camp, will not suit up because of an ankle injury. In addition to Simms, the Broncos will be without the services of rookie RB Knowshon Moreno tonight (knee), WR Brandon Lloyd (undisclosed injury) or WR Brandon Marshall (team suspension).

The Bears scored a 17-3 home win over the Giants a week ago, cashing as three-point favorites. Coach Lovie Smith plans to play his starters, including Cutler, into the third quarter. Cutler has thrown for 185 yards in the first two preseason games, with one TD and one INT. Backup QB and second-year pro Caleb Hanie is likely to replace Cutler and play the rest of the game, leaving veteran reserve Brett Basanez as the odd man out. WR Devon Hester is slated to return punts tonight, his first duties on special teams this August.

Chicago is just 6-5 SU and ATS on the highway the last five-plus preseasons and it is just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in Week 3 of the preseason the last six years, including 0-3 ATS in the past three summers.

The Broncos are 6-2 SU but just 4-4 ATS in their last eight preseason home games and just 1-4 SU and ATS in its last four exhibition contests overall.

The over is 7-3 in Chicago’s last 10 preseason contests and 4-2 in Denver’s last six in August.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Atlanta (68-61) at Philadelphia (74-53)

The top two teams in the National League East wrap up a three-game set at Citizens Park when the Braves send right-hander Jair Jurrjens (10-8, 2.91 ERA) to the mound opposite Phillies’ righty Joe Blanton (8-6, 3.88).

After dropping Friday’s contest 4-2, Atlanta’s bats came alive Saturday and scored a 9-1 win in a rain-shortened, eight-inning contest. The Braves have beaten Philadelphia seven of the last 10 meetings, but still trail the Phillies by seven games. Atlanta has won six of their last eight on the highway and five straight as an underdog. Meanwhile, despite Saturday’s setback, Philadelphia is still on runs of 35-17 overall, 20-8 at homn, 72-33 on Sundays, 29-13 as a favorite and 19-8 as a home favorite.

Jurrjens is 1-0 in his last three games with a 2.18 ERA, but the Braves are just 1-2 in those three starts. On Tuesday, he allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings to the Padres but Atlanta lost 2-1. In three starts against the Phillies this season, Jurrjens has allowed three runs (two earned) in 19 2/3 innings as Atlanta is 2-1 in the three outings. Finally, the Braves are 7-3 in Jurrjens’ last 10 starts against N.L. East foes and 4-1 in his last five when he gets four full days off.

Blanton gave up three runs in six innings in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, losing 6-4, but the veteran hruler hasn’t allowed the opposition more than three runs in any of his last 11 starts. He’s faced the Braves four times this season, including Aug. 14 when he held them to two runs (one earned) in seven innings of a 3-2 victory. Philadelphia is 12-5 in Blanton’s last 17 starts against division rivals, 9-3 in his last 12 as a favorite and 7-0 in his last seven when he works on Sundays.

Atlanta has stayed under the total in seven of Jurrjens’ last 10 starts as a ‘dog and six of his last eight when he faces a winning team on the road. As a team, the Braves have topped the total in 18 of 25 Sunday games and eight of 11 roadies. With Blanton on the hill, the Phils are on “under” runs of 10-4-2 overall, 7-3 at home and 4-0-1 against the N.L. East. Additionally, Philadelphia has stayed low in 20 of 30 against the N.L. East, 12 of 17 in the third game of a series and 19 of 27 against right-handers.

Finally, the “under” is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Philly and 5-0 in the last six clashes overall, with last night’s rain-shortened contest ending up as a “no play” for the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA


Colorado (72-58) at San Francisco (71-59)

The Giants will try to make it a three-game sweep and draw even in the race for the N.L. wild-card race when they send All-Star Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39 ERA) to the mound at AT&T Park against the Rockies’ Jason Hammel (8-8, 4.50).

San Francisco held on for a 5-3 win Saturday night, giving up three runs in the ninth before getting the final out. The Giants trail the Rockies by one game in the wild-card standings and trail the Dodgers by 5½ in the N.L. West standings.

Colorado is just 1-8 in its last nine as an underdog and 5-12 after losing the first two games of a series, but it is 7-1 in its last eight on Sunday. Meanwhile, San Francisco is on runs of 40-19 at home, 37-17 as a favorite and 42-20 at home against right-handers. Also, these teams have split 14 meetings this season.

Hammel has been solid in his last two outings, allowing a combined three runs in 14 innings in victories over the Nationals on Aug. 20 and Dodgers on Tuesday. He’s seen the Giants twice this season but didn’t get any offensive support in either outing. He blanked San Francisco for six innings on May 3 but the Rockies lost 1-0, then he gave up three runs in six innings on July 24 in a 3-1 Colorado loss. With Hammel on the hill, the Rockies are on runs of 13-6 overall and 4-0 on Sundays, but just 1-4 when he’s a road ‘dog.

Cain, who has a 2.01 ERA in his last three starts despite not registering a decision, is 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA in front of the home fans this season. Against Arizona on Tuesday he gave up two runs (one earned) on four hits in seven innings of a 5-4 victory. Cain has been dominant in two victories over Colorado this season, allowing a combined one run in 13 innings. With Cain on the hill, San Francisco is on runs of 16-5 at home, 9-1 as a home chalk, 11-3 when he’s a favorite and 5-0 against the N.L. West.

When Hammel pitches, the Rockies are on “under” runs of 7-1-1 in the third game of a series and 4-0 against N.L. West teams, while as a team, Colorado has stayed under the total in four of five overall, four of five on the road, six of seven against right-handed starters and four of five against N.L. West teams. The Giants’ are on “under” streaks of 7-2 with Cain starting, 6-1 when he’s a favorite and 6-1 against winning teams, while as a team San Francisco has stayed under the total in 15 of 21 as a favorite and five of six on Sundays.

Finally, the under is on streaks of 4-0 when Cain starts at home against Colorado and 5-1 when these two meet in Northern California.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR SUNDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


Tampa Bay (Niemann)

DETROIT (VERLANDER) -150 (1)


Washington (Mock)

ST. LOUIS (WAINWRIGHT) -330 (2)


Colorado (Hammel)

SAN FRANCISCO (CAIN) -140 (3)


Run Totals

Washington / St. Louis UNDER 8

Colorado / San Francisco UNDER 7 ½

Tampa Bay / Detroit UNDER 8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL DUNKEL

Week 3

SUNDAY, AUGUST 30

Game 279-280: Chicago at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 122.043; Denver 121.840
Dunkel Line: Even; 33 1/2
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL LONG SHEET

Week 3

Sunday, August 30

CHICAGO (1 - 1) at DENVER (0 - 2) - 8/30/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1993.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL SHORT SHEET

Week 3

Sunday, 8/30/2009

CHICAGO at DENVER, 8:00 PM ET NBC
CHICAGO: 2-12 ATS off road win
DENVER: 11-2 ATS at home off SU loss

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bets

Chicago Sky at New York Liberty (-3.5, 146.5)

The bottom-feeding Liberty would love to play the role of spoiler during the final games of the WNBA season.

New York is in last place (11-17) and is coming off a loss to the Sky Friday. Chicago is fighting for its first-ever playoff berth, currently sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference.

The Sky have struggled without injured star center Sylvia Fowles but got a big boost from reserve Kristi Toliver, who scored 25 points off the bench in Friday’s win. Fowles’ status for Sunday is unknown.

New York could miss their starting center as well Sunday. Janel McCarville has missed the past two games for the Liberty due to a sprained left ankle. She puts up almost 13 points and grabs six rebounds per game this season.

Pick: Chicago


Connecticut Sun at Los Angeles Sparks (-4.5, 146)

The Los Angeles Sparks had their seven-game winning streak snapped by the Phoenix Mercury Thursday night. However, they were missing one of their biggest stars.

Reigning MVP Candace Parker could not play due to “personal reasons” but told the media she would be in action against the Sun Sunday.

“I needed to be at home," she told reporters after practice Saturday. "I appreciate the Sparks' organization for understanding and for being there."

Parker was mired in a bit of a slump this season, following the birth of her first child. But in recent games, the forward was finding her form, averaging over 20 points in her past three contests. On the year, Parker is scoring just over 12 points per game.

Pick: Los Angeles

 

[mp5070]

Unlocked Sports

The Rangers got the job done yesterday on the moneyline and runline as we pick up 5.72 units of profit in the victory. We have one play today.

Colorado Rockies vs S.F. Giants

Pick: Colorado (3 units)

 

[mp5070]

Cobrawins

Baltimore UNDER 10 1 unit

Florida OVER 9 1 unit

Detroit -145 List Verlander 3 units

 

[mp5070]

Indian Cowboy

NFL Preseason GOY.

2 Unit Play. Take Over 38.5 between the Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos (Sunday @ 8pm est). This game will have a regular season game type atmosphere. Given the off-season hooplah and drama, both teams will get an early look as to how they have fared since the trade. Granted, it is way too early to tell which team has fared better overall. Only time will tell. Nevertheless, this is the only game that is slated for Sunday and certainly emotions will be high as Cutler faces his old team in his old stadium and Orton faces his old team who comes to visit. And, bear in mind that there are many coaches and executives who took part in this deal so emotions will be high and all involved will want to show their best. Someone who was not at their best in their last contest was Kyle Orton. Orton struggled terribly at Seattle throwing 1 touchdown but four interceptions as Denver fell short 13-27. Cutler played well for the most part against the Giants at home throwing for nearly 200 years and one touchdown with one interception. Given that Cutler faces his old team, Orton faces his old team, Orton comes off a miserable performance, and this is the only game on Sunday - a night game at that, I expect there to be plenty of offense on display. More importantly, I expect for all involved to go for the win despite this game meaning nothing in the regular season win count - but it goes a long way for early pride. I look for both teams to top 20 points as this game likely goes over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Wiz Bonus Plays

Florida Marlins
KC/Seattle Over
Oakland/LAA Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS Lock Club 9-6-2......+19.8 units

Chi Bears +2 1/2............3 units

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Denver Broncos

Baltimore Orioles
Seattle Mariners

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA Basketball Picks
DUNKEL

Minnesota at Washington

The Lynx look to take advantage of a Washington team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games. Minnesota is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by just 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, AUGUST 30

Game 651-652: Chicago at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 111.281; New York 111.147
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 144
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 3 1/2; 147
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: Minnesota at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 107.911; Washington 110.518
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 169
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 165
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4); Over
Game 655-656: Connecticut at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 111.974; Los Angeles 116.101
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 143
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 3 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-3 1/2); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Sun Pitt Pirates + 111

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB
Dunkel


Tampa Bay at Detroit
The Rays look to build on their 5-2 record in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Tampa Bay is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+155). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, AUGUST 30

Game 951-952: San Diego at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 14.109; Florida (West) 14.430
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-140); Under

Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.487; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.042
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+165); Over

Game 955-956: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.841; Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.196
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+120); Over

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.245; Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.097
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); Over

Game 959-960: Washington at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Mock) 15.102; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.872
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-330); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+290); Under

Game 961-962: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Figueroa) 14.318; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.338
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-275); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-275); N/A

Game 963-964: Colorado at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.687; San Francisco (Cain) 15.149
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Under

Game 965-966: Houston at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 15.195; Arizona (Haren) 15.024
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+125); Under

Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 14.997; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 16.656
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-235); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-235); Over

Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.281; Detroit (Verlander) 14.997
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+155); Under

Game 971-972: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 15.192; Boston (Byrd) 14.250
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 973-974: Cleveland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.812; Baltimore (Matusz) 16.834
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over

Game 975-976: Texas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 15.635; Minnesota (Baker) 16.104
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135); Over

Game 977-978: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 13.797; LA Angels (Lackey) 15.788
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-180); Under

Game 979-980: Kansas City at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 15.650; Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.757
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-115); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

J Morrison System Plays 08/30


MLB

no plays

WNBA

Connecticut [C] (vs LA) bet buy 3 points asap

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

August 30, 2009

You can't keep Hondo down for long -- only about a week. Mr. Aitch ended his freefall last night with the Gi ants, which offset his Tiger loss and trimmed the deficit ever-so-slightly to 805 stennetts.

Today, he expects 'Dorf to rise to the occasion in Mil waukee -- 10 units on the Pirates. Also, he hopes to have a happy Halladay in Boston -- 10 on the Jays.

 

[cork999]

Craig Davis
Craig Davis Sunday's Lineup 50 DIME ---- TIGERS (With Verlander) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over RAYS (With Niemann)

Despite scoring just one run in yesterday's 3-1 loss to David Price and the Tampa Bay Rays, I still believe the Tigers are the best play on the board today because it's not very often Justin Verlander loses at home... especially during the day. A few untimely errors cost the Tigers a chance to win yesterday's contest, but I'm not sure they were in the right frame of mind to get it done anyhow, scoring just one run late in the game. Today, I can guarantee you those same players who committed the errors are looking to make amends and get this team back on the winning track.

You see, the Tigers play much better at home and must win these types of games if they want to keep their lead in the AL Central. Detroit is 41-21 at home while the Rays are just 27-37 on the road, and it's not often the Tigers lose a game at home when the series is on the line. After winning game one but dropping game two, this is a pivotal rubber match that has a decided pitching advantage for the home team. The aforementioned Verlander is not only 7-2 at home with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, but he's also 6-2 during day game starts with a miniscule 1.54 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, not to mention the fact opponents are hitting just .185 against him.

Critics will point to his rather "average" August as a reason to stay away, but I believe he's just about to turn it around just as he did in 2007... a similar season to 2009. After struggling much of August, he turned it around in his last start of that month (Aug. 27th) was a major home win over the Yankees... 16-0. He pitched 7 shutout innings in the win and that catapulted him back to the top of his game. That's going to happen again this afternoon, starting with the Rays at home.

Verlander went on to allow just one earned run in each of his next three starts and finished the season with five wins in his last seven starts... and it started with that late August shutout win over the Yankees. We have all the makings of a complete game shutout for Verlander this afternoon, and although I won't go that far, I will say that Verlander is well overdue for one of these types of performances, and the fact that the Rays seem to be in a bit of an offensive slump right now only makes things better for our side. The Tigers have won 10 of their last 13 home games, 6 of their last 7 Sunday starts, and 21 of their last 28 game after the opponent scores two or less runs with Verlander on the hill.

Tampa counters with Jeff Niemann, and although his season ERA is a respectable 3.87, it's hard to ignore the fact that he appears to be slowing down, showing signs of fatigue. After a stretch of games in which he pitched seven or more innings allowing just one or two runs, he's now on a run of four straight games going less than seven innings while allowing four or more earned runs in three of those four. His fastball has lost a little velocity and he's having some control problems with his breaking stuff, walking three runners in two his last three starts. Seriously, do you trust a guy like Niemann in a situation like this when each game becomes more and more like a playoff atmosphere? Or do you trust Verlander and his proven track record?

This one will be decided by the 7th inning. Tigers roll the Rays today.




BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------------------GL GUYS

 

[cork999]

Sean Michaels
Sunday's Pick 25 DIME PLAY

Chicago Bears

Note: I want you to purchase insurance on this play. If you have Chicago at +2 1/2, buy up the half-point to +3 to insure you get a push should the Bears lose by a field goal.

If you have Chicago at +3, buy the additional half-point to move the line to +3 1/2, which would result in you getting the win should the Bears lose by three points.

If this line happens to drop to +2, there is no need to purchase any insurance, but it still remains Sunday's lone release.




BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------------GL GUYS