THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(12) Villanova (21-5, 13-9 ATS) at (24) Syracuse (19-7, 10-12 ATS)
Villanova looks to continue its strong play when it travels to the Carrier Dome for a Big East battle with inconsistent Syracuse.
The Wildcats have won seven of their last eight games, and they rebounded from the one defeat – a 93-72 loss at West Virginia on Feb. 13 – with Thursday’s 82-72 home victory over Rutgers. However, Villanova failed to cover as a hefty 16½-point home chalk, its second straight ATS setback after an 8-0 ATS run. Jay Wright’s team has been an offensive force of late, averaging 90.4 points per game on 49 percent shooting in its last five games, but it has also surrendered 85 ppg on 45.5 percent shooting during this stretch.
Syracuse has been idle since last Saturday, when it needed overtime to put away Georgetown, winning 98-94 and eking out the cash as a 3½-point home chalk. Despite that outcome, the Orange are mired in a 3-6 SU and ATS funk, and the SU winner has covered in each of the team’s last 11 games, all in Big East action.
Villanova is 9-4 in league action (8-5 ATS), including 3-3 SU and ATS on the road. Syracuse, which started Big East play 4-0 (3-1 ATS), is now 7-6 SU and 6-7 ATS in conference, but 5-1 SU and ATS at home.
Included in the Wildcats’ ongoing 8-1 SU run was a 102-85 rout of Syracuse as a 6½-point home favorite back on Feb. 7. Villanova has won and covered two straight in this rivalry and is 6-2 in the last eight (5-3 ATS), including 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Syracuse. Also, the ‘dog has cashed in four of the last five clashes overall.
In addition to their 8-2 overall ATS run, the Wildcats are riding positive pointspread streaks of 7-1 against winning teams and 4-0 on Sunday. However, they’re 7-15 ATS in their last 22 after a non-cover. Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six at the Carrier Dome, but is otherwise in ATS funks of 2-5 on Sunday, 2-5 versus winning teams, 2-5 on Sunday and 1-6 after a spread-cover.
The over is on runs of 5-0 for Villanova overall, 6-0 for Villanova on the road, 4-0 for Villanova after a victory and 4-1 for Syracuse after a SU win. However, the total has alternated in each of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, with this month’s contest at Villanova soaring over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA and OVER
(18) Illinois (21-6, 13-9-1 ATS) at Ohio State (17-7, 12-8 ATS)
Illinois will try to rebound from an embarrassing offensive showing in Thursday’s home loss to Penn State when it heads to Columbus to take on Ohio State in a key Big Ten rumble.
The Illini got dumped 38-33 as a 9½-point home favorite against Penn State, snapping a three-game SU winning streak and falling to 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight outings. It was the second time in seven games that Illinois had scored less than 40 points, and against the Nittany Lions, the Illini made just 15 of 50 field goals and didn’t get to the free-throw line once.
Ohio State hit a rough patch last week, suffering consecutive narrow road losses to Wisconsin (55-50) and Northwestern (72-69), which comes on the heels of a four-game SU winning streak. The Buckeyes also had a 5-0 ATS run halted when they failed to cover as a 1½-piont road underdog against Northwestern on Wednesday.
The Illini are in third place in the Big Ten at 9-5 (7-6-1 ATS), including 3-4 SU and ATS on the road. The Buckeyes are 7-6 in conference (8-5 ATS), including 5-1 in Columbus (4-2 ATS). In fact, OSU has won and covered three straight at home against league rivals and is 26-3 SU in its last 29 when hosting Big Ten opponents.
Illinois pummeled the Buckeyes 67-49 as a 7½-point home favorite on Jan. 20, ending a five-game losing skid (4-1 ATS) in this rivalry. The home team has won eight of the last 10 in this series (7-3 ATS), and the host has cashed in 12 of the last 16. Finally, Ohio State is on a 6-1 ATS roll against the Illini at home, with Illinois’ last win in Columbus coming in 2004.
Defense has been the hallmark of both squads this season, with Illinois yielding just 55.7 ppg (39.2 percent shooting) and Ohio State giving up only 61.3 ppg (40.3 percent). Not surprisingly, then, the under is on streaks of 21-8 for Illinois overall, 5-0 for Illinois on the highwau, 35-17-1 for Illinois in Big Ten play, 5-1 for Illinois versus winning teams, 20-7-1 for Illinois on Sunday, 4-1 for Ohio State versus winning teams and 15-4 for Ohio State on Sunday.
Finally, five of the last six battles in this rivalry have stayed low, and the under is 4-0 in the last four clashes at Ohio State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
Wisconsin (17-9, 11-12-1 ATS) at (6) Michigan State (20-5, 12-9-1 ATS)
Red-hot Wisconsin continues its roller-coaster Big Ten season, while Michigan State hopes to rebounding for a ugly loss as these Big Ten foes clash at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Mich.
The Badgers have followed up a six-game conference losing skid (0-5-1 ATS) with five straight league wins (4-1 ATS), most recently dispatching Indiana 68-51 as a 9½-point road favorite Thursday. Wisconsin has ridden its defense lately, giving up just 49.4 ppg on 41.7 percent shooting during the five-game winning streak after yielding 68.3 ppg on 50.2 percent shooting during the six-game slide.
Michigan State had a three-game SU and ATS winning streak abruptly halted in Tuesday’s 72-54 loss at Purdue, the team’s worst loss of the conference season. The Spartans have produced exactly 54 points in each of the last two games after averaging 73.6 ppg in the previous five. Prior to the Purdue contest, Tom Izzo’s team had allowed 47, 47 and 42 points during its three-game winning streak.
The Spartans still lead the Big Ten with an 10-3 mark (7-5-1 ATS), including 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS in East Lansing. Wisconsin, which started Big Ten play with three straight wins (2-1 ATS), is now 8-6 in conference (6-7-1 ATS), including 3-4 SU and 3-3-1 ATS on the road.
The home team has owned this series, winning seven straight regular-season battles (6-1 ATS). Wisconsin has won the last four meetings overall (2-2 ATS), including a pair of victories in the Big Ten tournament (65-63 last year; 70-57 in 2007) and a pair of home wins (57-42 last year; 52-50 in 2007). However, the Spartans have won and covered the last three at the Breslin Center.
The Badgers carry ATS streaks of 14-6 on the road, 17-8 after a SU win, 7-3-1 as a road underdog and 5-2 on Sunday. Michigan State is on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall (all in Big Ten play), 8-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 as a chalk and 42-20-1 when favored between seven and 12½ points.
Wisconsin is on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on Sunday and 25-8 after an ATS win. The Spartans are on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 8-3 at home and 5-2 after a non-cover. Finally, each of the last four regular-season meetings in this series have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
(8) Wake Forest (20-4, 12-8 ATS) at (9) Duke (21-5, 11-13-1 ATS)
Duke, which hasn’t won consecutive games this month, hopes to end that streak and avenge last month’s last-second loss at Wake Forest when these ACC rivals battle it out at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The Blue Devils took a break from ACC play on Thursday and held off St. John’s 76-69, but they took their foot off the gas early once again and failed to cash as a 14-point road favorite, their fifth consecutive non-cover. Duke has lost two straight and four of six in ACC action, including a 101-87 defeat to archrival North Carolina as a two-point underdog on Feb. 11, its most recent home game.
Like Duke, the Demon Deacons have been struggling with consistency, splitting their last eight games both SU and ATS after opening the year with 16 consecutive wins (8-4 ATS). Wake Forest does come into this one on a two-game SU and ATS roll, pounding Florida State (86-63) and Georgia Tech (87-69), but both of those games were at home. The Deacons are in an 0-3 SU and ATS rut in ACC road contests.
The SU winner is 13-0 ATS in Wake Forest’s last 13 games, including 12-0 ATS in conference action.
These schools are in a four-way tie for second place in the ACC standings at 7-4. However, while Wake is 7-4 ATS in conference (2-3 SU and ATS on the road), the Blue Devils are 4-7 against the number (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS at home).
The Demon Deacons scored on an inbounds play in the waning seconds back on Jan. 24 to beat Duke 70-68 as a two-point home underdog after squandering a big second-half lead. Wake Forest has won the last two meetings (2-0 ATS) after losing the previous five and going 0-6 ATS in the previous six.
Also, in this rivalry, the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine battles and 13-3 ATS in the last 17. In fact, Duke has defeated Wake Forest 10 straight times at Cameron Indoor, all by double figures, and the Demon Deacons have cashed just once in their last 11 visits to Durham. Finally, the favorite is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 matchups.
Wake Forest is on ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 5-0 as an underdog and 6-2 on Sunday. Conversely, Duke is ATS ruts of 0-4 in ACC play, 0-4 as a favorite, 1-5 as a favorite of less than seven points and 0-7 when laying less than seven at home.
For Wake Forest, the over is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 5-1 on Sunday and 8-3 as an underdog, while Duke has topped the total in its last four overall. However, the under for Duke is on streaks of 12-3 in ACC play, 18-6 at home, 20-8 as a favorite and 4-1 on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
Arizona (18-8, 15-10 ATS) at (14) Arizona State (20-5, 14-7 ATS)
Arizona State will attempt to sweep the season series from hated rival Arizona for the second straight season and remain in the hunt for its first Pac-10 title ever when it hosts the streaking Wildcats at Wells Fargo Arena.
The Sun Devils have won and covered in four straight games, all in league play, including last weekend’s impressive home sweep of UCLA (74-67 as a 1½-point underdog) and USC (65-53 as a 6½-point chalk). Arizona State, which allows just 58.5 ppg on 40.6 percent shooting for the season, has been especially strong defensively during the winning streak, yielding only 53.8 ppg.
Since suffering a 53-47 home loss to the Sun Devils on Jan. 21, Arizona has ripped off seven consecutive wins (6-1 ATS). Like their rivals, the Wildcats are also coming off a home sweep of both USC (83-76 as a 2½-point favorite) and UCLA (84-72 as a five-point underdog), and they’ve scored at least 83 points in five of the seven games during their winning streak.
The Sun Devils, who haven’t won a conference championship in 40 years in the Pac-10, are in a three-way tie for second place in the standings at 9-4 SU and ATS (4-2 SU and ATS at home). The Wildcats are a game back at 8-5 SU and ATS (2-4 SU and ATS on the road). The SU winner is 13-0 ATS in Arizona State’s conference games and 11-2 ATS in Arizona’s 13.
Both teams shot under 30 percent in last month’s defensive struggle in Tucson, and the winner has averaged just 59.3 ppg in the last four head-to-head battles. Arizona State has won the last three against Arizona and cashed in each of the last four after going 6-43 SU in the previous 49 clashes. In last year’s meeting in Tempe, the Sun Devils pulled out a 64-59 overtime win as a 2½-point home favorite.
Also in this rivalry, the home team is on a 7-3 ATS roll and the favorite has cashed in nine of the last 12.
Although it is 6-1 ATS in its last seven overall and 5-1 ATS in its last six Pac-10 games, Arizona has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 road games and is 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road pup. Arizona State’s ATS runs include 5-2 at home, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 13-3 when favored by seven to 12½ points.
For Arizona, the over is on runs of 6-1 overall, 5-1 in Pac-10 play and 4-1 as an underdog, but the ‘Cats have stayed low in five straight Sunday games. Arizona State is on “under” tears of 8-3 overall (all in the Pac-10), 7-2 as a favorite, 6-0 against winning teams and 11-4 after an ATS win. Finally, the last six meetings in this heated rivalry have stayed below the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA STATE and UNDER
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