StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle Saturday
NFL Betting News and Notes
Those back-to-school commercials you’ve been watching over and over again on television for the last month are sending a subtle message to those of us gearing up for the 2014 NFL season: It’s time to start studying. With the preseason now underway and the first game of the regular season scheduled to kick-off four weeks from Thursday, here are some key storylines to follow as you begin to gear up for another year of battling the sportsbooks.
•Robert Griffin III’s Knee
Robert Griffin III’s blown-out knee suffered during the 2012 Wildcard Round coupled with a 3-13 record (5-11 ATS) the following season have many prognosticators down on the Redskins this year, who boast a season win total of just 7.5 and Super Bowl odds of a staggering 60/1. With a new head coach in Jay Gruden and another vertical threat in wideout DeSean Jackson, the Skins could be an early “Play On” team in 2014 thanks to favorable prices, assuming Griffin’s knee is back to 100 percent.
•Tony Romo’s Back
Focus should be paid to the December back surgery undergone by 34-year-old quarterback Tony Romo, who completed just 63.9 percent of his passes last season (worst since 2009). Romo is no spring chicken and is no longer backed-up by capable veteran Kyle Orton, who was replaced by Cleveland castoff Brandon Weeden this offseason. The current Dallas win total is eight wins, but the Boys opened as dogs in just five of their first 15 games. Fading Dallas could offer significant value this season if Romo can’t get back to 100 percent.
•Efficiency Of Ryan Fitzpatrick
Bettors looking for an edge need to completely disregard Houston’s 2-14 tank job from a year ago and focus instead on quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ability to move the sticks and protect the football. The nine-year veteran doesn’t have a strong arm, which was a problem that was exacerbated by the cold temperatures and strong winds in Cincinnati and Buffalo. However, the Texans have a retractable roof and play six road games that will take place either indoors or in a warm weather city, giving Fitzpatrick his best chance yet for success. This team has the potential to bounce back in a hurry, but it will all come down to Fitzpatrick’s ability to play smart football.
•Manziel Vs. Hoyer
This is the most important training camp battle to watch because it will have an interesting effect on Cleveland’s pointspreads early in the season. Brian Hoyer is an experienced, capable starting quarterback. But the five-year veteran doesn’t move the needle - even if he’s a better choice. Manziel, however, has legions of fans around the country who will be more than willing to back that fandom with cash at the window, quite possible inflating Cleveland spreads. There will be more value betting Hoyer early on than Manziel.
•Carolina’s Offense
The Panthers posted a 12-4 SU and 9-6-1 ATS mark last season, leading many to the assumption that this team is finally ready to take the next step. But the offseason saw the departure of 53.4 percent of quarterback Cam Newton’s 2013 completed passes. If Newton can’t find a way to move the sticks with his ragtag collection of receivers, the result will come in the form of more three-and-outs and more time on the field for the defense. Should that be the case, Carolina could be susceptible to fourth-quarter comebacks thanks to an exhausted stop unit.
•Mike Wallace
It was just over a year ago that the Miami Dolphins dumped a five-year, $60 million contract on free agent wide receiver Mike Wallace, who responded by catching 73 passes for 930 yards and five scores (career low) last season. That production failed to meet the price tag, which is part of the reason why Miami ranked 27th in total offense and 26th in scoring in 2013. If the Dolphins can’t get Wallace heavily involved in the offense as quickly as possible, head coach Joe Philbin could be on his way out the door.
•Chicago Defense
It’s no secret that this offense can put up the points but it was the defense that served as the team’s primary weak spot last season.
Offseason upgrades in the form of pass rushers Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen, the return of a healthy Charles Tillman and the first-round selection of CB Kyle Fuller are all reasons why this team could be a serious contender in 2014. But the defense needs to come together sooner rather than later for the Bears to turn that dream into a reality.
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Saturday's Matchups
#275 CLEVELAND @ #276 DETROIT - 7:30 PM
Line: Lions -1, Total: 39.5
The National Football League's first full week of preseason action continues on Saturday night in Detroit when the Lions play host to Johnny Manziel and the Cleveland Browns at Ford Field. The Browns have split first-team repetitions over recent days between Brian Hoyer and Manziel, the No. 22 overall pick out of Texas A&M. The veteran Hoyer is expected to start in the Motor City but the highly-anticipated debut of Manziel is the bigger storyline.
"It's just part of our plan," Browns first-year head coach Mike Pettine said when asked about his QB competition. "We said we were going to allow the quarterbacks to compete. At some point, you've got to mix up the supporting cast a little bit." The Browns certainly invited additional scrutiny when they decided to get into the "Johnny Football" business and during much of the offseason, Manziel was spotted partying far away from Cleveland on numerous occasions, leading many to question whether the former Heisman trophy winner is as serious about his profession as he needs to be.
Any time you draft a quarterback in the first round of the draft, however, the plan is for him to take over sooner rather than later and Manziel has all the physical tools in the world to succeed on the football field. "It'll be fun. It'll be fun to mix it back up," Manziel said. "This will be the first game setting since my last college bowl game so it'll be nice to get back on the field and play a game. Everybody's happy when the season rolls back around, and you're on the field actually having a live game going on."
On the other side of the ball Cleveland's other first-round draft pick, cornerback Justin Gilbert, will be expected to hit the ground running and team with veteran Joe Haden to give the Browns two top-tier players outside the numbers on defense. "(Gilbert) has all the tools to be a dominant corner in this league, he's just got to go out and do it," Cleveland defensive coordinator Jim O'Neill said. "I mean, if you were creating a corner in a video game, you'd create Justin Gilbert. His size, his speed, his length, his burst, his ball skills -- he's got everything."
Detroit, on the other hand, is also entering a new era under incoming head coach Jim Caldwell. Led by talented but inconsistent quarterback Matthew Stafford, the Lions ranked third in the NFL in passing yards in 2013 yet a slight improvement on the field wasn't enough for Jim Schwartz to keep his job in the Motor City largely because his team remained undisciplined, win or lose. Caldwell was handed the task of not only cleaning up the now trademarked boneheaded play with the Lions but also the mechanics of Stafford, who often relies on his plus-arm strength to make up for shoddy footwork, poor arm angles and questionable decision-making.
"You can tell he has worked at it even during the summer," Caldwell said when discussing Stafford. "In every facet, I can see improvement. Footwork, accuracy, timing, command of the offense, all of those things. So now we get a chance to see if he can put it all together, keep progressing and then get some real challenges from our opposition as we start preseason." The Lions took an NBA approach to upgrading their high- octane offense around Stafford. Detroit wanted to take some of the LeBron James-like load off of star receiver Calvin Johnson after Megatron suffered through an injury- plagued 2013 season.
Former Seattle receiver Golden Tate will be Johnson's new running mate on the outside while athletic rookie tight end Eric Ebron has Caldwell envisioning a Jimmy Graham-like impact in the middle of the field at some point, although Ebron hasn't caught on early in camp and may miss the preseason opener. "(Ebron) has an injury," Caldwell said after a practice Wednesday night at Ford Field. "We'll see (if he can play against Cleveland). He's day to day, so we'll see how it goes."
QB ROTATIONS
•Browns: Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel.
•Lions: Matthew Stafford, Dan Orlovsky, Kellen Moore.
MOST RECENT PRESEASON TRENDS – ALL ATS
•Browns: 9-6 ATS Game #1 (4-0 L4), 12-14 favorite, 19-15 dog, 7-1 home dog’s, 0-7 dogs versus opponent off straight-up against the spread win, 1-6 favorites versus less than .500 opponent, 1-6 away versus opponent off SU dog win.
•Lions: 11-15 ATS Game #1, (1-0 most recent), 25-21 favorite, 23-26 dog, 6-0 home off double-digit straight-up win, 5-0 favorites off BB straight-up wins, 2-14 .500 or more road dog’s versus opponent off SU loss.
TEAM/COACH - SU, ATS, O/U, BEST/WORSE ROLE
•Cleveland: Mike Pettine no recent trends.
•Detroit: Jim Caldwell 2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS, 8-4 O/U, 1-5 SU/ATS if total is 36 points or less.
FAST FACT
Over the last four seasons, the 2nd best Over team at home during the preseason has been the Detroit Lions. The Lions have gone 6-1-1 Over/Under (86% Overs) and the average total points in those games has been a very high (for preseason) 49.0. Last year, both Lion home games went Over (43 and 49 points respectively).
Note: Cleveland and Detroit are preseason regulars with 45 career meetings, including a 24-6 Browns victory last year at FirstEnergy Stadium on Aug. 15. The Lions, however, hold a 24-20-1 all-time edge in the preseason series.
StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 17 times, while the favorite covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 17 times, while the underdog won straight up 15 times. 22 games went under the total, while 17 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 37 times, while the favorite covered first half line 33 times. *No EDGE. 42 games went over first half total, while 20 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
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#277 PITTSBURGH @ #278 NY GIANTS - 7:30 PM
Line: Giants -3, Total: 37
The New York Giants extended postseason resumes at MetLife Stadium on Saturday when Tom Coughlin and Co. welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to the Garden State. The Giants got the jump on everyone last week by kicking off the 2014 National Football League season with a 17-13 win over the Buffalo Bills in the annual Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. Rookie running back Andre Williams ran for 48 yards and a touchdown in the win while Giants starting quarterback Eli Manning played three series with limited success.
The veteran signal caller and his teammates went three-and-out on their first drive and Manning was strip-sacked on the opening play of the second, before New York went 80 yards on 12 plays on its third trek, culminating in Williams' 3-yard TD run. Manning finished 6-of-7 for 43 yards for the Giants, who went 7-9 last season after starting 0-6. Manning's backup, Ryan Nassib, completed 7-of-12 passes for 139 yards and threw the go-ahead 73-yard TD pass to Corey Washington early in the fourth to give the Giants the 17-13 edge which turned out to be the final margin.
Williams' strong play was a positive development for New York, especially after it was revealed that former first-round pick David Wilson was advised by doctors to no longer play football due to neck problems. Wilson, 23, left practice last week with a burner and was sent to a hospital for tests on his surgically repaired neck. On Monday morning, Wilson met with the doctor who performed his surgery in January to fuse vertebrae and repair a herniated disk, and was given the bad news.
"At a young age I had a dream to play in the National Football League," Wilson said in an emotional press conference on Wednesday afternoon. "I did that, I played in the NFL and I scored touchdowns and I broke tackles and I broke and set records. I practiced with my teammates, got to play for coach Coughlin, got drafted by the Giants. So at no point should anybody feel like this is over because in life everything has obstacles." Williams is now fighting with offseason free-agent acquisition Rashad Jennings for the Giants' starting running back job. Jennings totaled 23 yards on seven carries against the Bills.
The Steelers, who own a record six Super Bowl titles, aren't used to mediocrity but that's exactly what they have been over the past two seasons, posting a 16-16 mark over that span. The expiration date on Ben Roethlisberger's shelf life as a top-tier NFL quarterback is rapidly approaching, so the Steelers and head coach Mike Tomlin must pull out all the stops in order to take advantage of the 32-year-old's remaining prime. Two of Big Ben's main targets -- Emmanuel Sanders (Denver) and Jerricho Cotchery (Carolina) -- moved on in the offseason, putting more pressure on talented second-year man Markus Wheaton as well as former Drew Brees-favorite Lance Moore.
Defensively, Pittsburgh went all in on the front seven during the draft, snaring Ohio State linebacker Ryan Shazier at No. 15 overall, and following that up with Notre Dame five-technique Stephon Tuitt, a potential value in the second round. "I think Ryan?s going to start, and I could see Tuitt playing an awful lot of snaps," defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau told Steelers.com. "I don't know when but we're expecting some pretty good things from those guys."
QB ROTATIONS
•Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, Landry Jones, Brendon Kay.
•Giants: Eli Manning, Curtis Painter, Ryan Nassib.
MOST RECENT PRESEASON TRENDS – ALL ATS
•Steelers: 16-14 ATS Game #1 (0-2 L2), 31-26 favorite, 20-23 dog, 7-0 underdogs versus opponent off BB straight-up losses, 1-5 away off straight-up dog win, 1-6 with revenge versus opponent off SU dog win.
•Giants: 16-14 ATS Game #2 (0-1 most recent), 18-27 favorite, 24-26 dog, 1-6 away versus opponent off straight-up dog win, 1-6 favorites off BB straight-up losses, 2-8 .500 or more dogs under Coughlin.
TEAM/COACH - SU, ATS, O/U, BEST/WORSE ROLE
•Pittsburgh, Mike Tomlin 19-10 SU, 14-14-1 ATS, 11-17-1 O/U, 5-1 if total is 37 points or more.
•New York, Tom Coughlin 39-35 SU, 37-33-4 ATS, 27-30 O/U, 5-0 off BB SU/ATS wins.
FAST FACT
The Steelers averaged only 3.5 yards per rush last season which was 4th worst in the NFL. The Steelers do not play a game west of the Mississippi this year and only ONE of their 16 games is outside of the Eastern time zone. Note: The Steelers and Giants have spilt 26 prior meetings in the postseason.
StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 24 times, while the favorite covered the spread 18 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 27 times, while the underdog won straight up 18 times. 32 games went under the total, while 25 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 44 times, while the favorite covered first half line 35 times. *No EDGE. 48 games went under first half total, while 41 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
Situational Analysis of The Day: Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (NY GIANTS) - after scoring 14 points or less last game.
(79-35 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.3%, +40.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.8, Opponent 11.5 (Total first half points scored = 22.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (39-14).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (171-107).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (403-270).
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GREEN BAY @ #280 TENNESSEE - 8:00 PM
Line: Titans -2, Total: 38
The Tennessee Titans will begin the Ken Whisenhunt era by welcoming the defending NFC North champion Green Bay Packers to Music City. The new Titans head coach is known as a bit of a "quarterback whisperer," who did wonders for Kurt Warner in Arizona and Philip Rivers in San Diego. He was brought to Nashville in an effort to help young quarterback Jake Locker, the No. 8 overall pick from the 2011 draft, reach his potential. Locker has shown signs at times, especially early last season, but he has also struggled with injuries and consistency. If Whisenhunt is unable to put the University of Washington product on the right path, it might be the end of the road for him with Tennessee.
The Titans also must replace former 2,000-yard rusher Chris Johnson, as well significantly improve the defense, specifically the back seven. Another former UW star, 2014 second-round pick Bishop Sankey, will have every opportunity to become Tennessee's new bell cow in the backfield. He has a lot of Emmitt Smith qualities in that he is an all-around volume back who does everything pretty well. On the other side Whisenhunt's defensive coordinator, Ray Horton, will be shifting toward a 3-4 attacking defense and veteran Shaun Phillips, who has amassed 19 1/2 sacks over his previous two seasons, should be a consistent presence off the edge. "Everybody has an opportunity here," Whisenhunt said when talking about his team. "We're going to play our best guys."
The Packers, meanwhile, are looking to defend their third consecutive division title in 2014. A season ago, they battled to an 8-7-1 finish despite being without star quarterback Aaron Rodgers for a significant period of time, and edged the 8-8 Chicago Bears for first place in the NFC North. You know Green Bay is going to be able to move the football as long as Rodgers is under center but the defense has been a significant issue for a few years in Titletown.
Veteran defensive coordinator Dom Capers has looked like a coach behind the innovation curve in recent seasons but he'll get one more chance to prove the talent has been the issue in Green Bay, not the scheme. The two big moves were bringing in veteran pass rusher Julius Peppers to complement Clay Matthews on the edge, and drafting rookie safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who should end up being a significant upgrade on the back end. This marks the ninth time since 2002 that the Packers and Titans have played in the preseason but the first time the game won't be in the final week. From 2002-09, Green Bay and Tennessee played each other in Week 4 of the preseason every year.
QB ROTATIONS
•Packers: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, Chase Rettig.
•Titans: Jake Locker, C. Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger, Tyler Wilson.
MOST RECENT PRESEASON TRENDS – ALL ATS
•Packers: 12-19 Game #1, (0-4 L4), 27-28 favorite, 22-21 dog, 7-1 away off double-digit straight-up loss, 1-5 home after scoring 35 or more points, 5-1 favorites versus .500 or more foe under McCarthy.
•Titans: 13-16 Game #1, (0-2 L2), 26-32 favorite, 23-15 dog, 14-2 dogs versus opponent off straight-up and against the spread win, 6-1 favorites off BB SU losses, 0-4 home dog’s, 1-7 home versus opponent off DD SU win.
TEAM/COACH - SU, ATS, O/U, BEST/WORSE ROLE
•Green Bay, Mike McCarthy 15-17 SU, 15-17 ATS, 21-11 O/U, 5-1 SU/ATS off SU DD loss.
•Tennessee, Ken Whisenhunt 8-17 SU, 8-16-1 ATS, 13-12 O/U, 1-8 vs. opponent off SU/ATS loss.
FAST FACT
The Titans have averaged 7.2 wins per year over the last 5 seasons with a high of 9 and low of 6. Going back to 1997, if the Titans are a home underdog, they have gone OVER the total at a rate of 27-13-1. Note: Overall, the Packers are 3-7 against the Houston/Tennessee franchise in the preseason, with the first meeting coming on Aug. 19, 1972, in Houston.
StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 11 times, while the underdog covered the spread 0 times. *EDGE against the spread =TENNESSEE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 11 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 10 games went under the total, while 8 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 25 times, while the underdog covered first half line 11 times. *No EDGE. 31 games went over first half total, while 14 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
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#281 HOUSTON @ #282 ARIZONA - 8:30 PM
Line: Cardinals -2, Total: 38
The champion of the 2014 National Football League season will be crowned in University of Phoenix Stadium, the home of the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards hope to take their first step toward Super Bowl XLIX when they host the revamped Houston Texans in the desert this weekend. Any hopes of winning the big game in their own home, however, have already taken some significant hits. The Cardinals finished 10-6 a year ago and were the best team in the NFL which didn't reach the postseason but Arizona's well-regarded defense has already been decimated by off-the-field issues.
The strength of last year's club was the front seven and that unit has already lost star inside linebacker Daryl Washington to a year-long drug suspension. His absence was only magnified by the fact his running mate, veteran Karlos Dansby, jetted to Cleveland in free agency. Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will be looking at a host of players to replace his two stalwarts with 2013 second-round pick Kevin Minter and former Pittsburgh star Larry Foote having the inside track. Another headache popped up in early August when it was revealed star pass rusher John Abraham, the NFL's active career leader in sacks, had been charged with a DUI in suburban Atlanta in late June.
"First, I want to apologize to my family and friends, the Cardinals organization, my teammates and the fans for letting them down," Abraham said in a statement. "I understand the significance of my actions and right now I am taking the necessary steps to handle my personal business. I am very thankful for the support from my family, friends and especially the Cardinals organization during this time in my life. I am looking forward to being back with my teammates in the near future." When that is remains to be seen, though.
Perhaps Arizona's biggest weakness on the other side of the ball -- the offensive line -- was addressed in free agency when the team brought former Raider Jared Veldheer in to play left tackle. That move, along with the return of immensely talented guard Jonathan Cooper (last year's No. 7 overall pick) from a broken left fibula was supposed to solidify things in front of quarterback Carson Palmer, who will turn 35 late in the 2014 season. Cooper, however, has been dealing with a balky knee and been a disappointment so far. "I'm a little disappointed with where Coop is at right now," Cards coach Bruce Arians told the team's website. "I'd hope he come a little faster."
Over in South Texas, new head coach Bill O'Brien already handed the keys to his team over to veteran free agent quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, ending any speculation that strong-armed rookie Tom Savage or popular Texas native Case Keenum could push for the QB job. The Texans, who went from AFC South champions to an NFL-worst 2-14 in one year, probably have enough talent -- especially defensively -- to pull off a worst-to-first scenario if they can get competent play from Fitzpatrick, but five stops in nine years confirms the Harvard product is nothing more than a journeyman.
Other big issues in Houston are the health of No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, who underwent sports hernia surgery in June, and the mindset of veteran Pro Bowl receiver Andre Johnson, who refused to report in the offseason but is back in the fold now, although Johnson has been dealing with a hamstring issue. "(Clowney is) out there and he wants to go every rep," O'Brien said when talking about his prized draft pick, a once-in-a-generation physical talent who could team with All-Pro J.J. Watt to give the Texans a ferocious pass rush. "I'm sure he's a little sore and we'll just continue to manage him."
QB ROTATIONS
•Texans: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Tom Savage.
•Cardinals: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Logan Thomas, Ryan Lindley.
MOST RECENT PRESEASON TRENDS – ALL ATS
•Texans: 6-5 ATS Game #1, (3-0 L3), 11-12 favorite, 13-12 dog, 4-1 dogs versus opponent off double-digit straight-up loss, 4-1 less than .500 off double-digit ATS loss, 0-4 off DD SU win versus opponent off SU loss.
•Cardinals: 15-15 ATS Game #1 (3-1 L4), 21-19 favorite, 27-28 dog, 9-1 off straight-up loss versus opponent off double-digit straight-up win, 4-12 home favorite’S versus less than .500 opponent, 1-6 off BB SU and ATS losses versus opponent off SU loss.
TEAM/COACH - SU, ATS, O/U, BEST/WORSE ROLE
•Houston, Bill O'Brien no recent trends.
•Arizona, Bruce Arians 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U, 2-0 away.
FAST FACT
According to our database the third strongest Over team on the preseason road is the Houston Texans. The Texans have gone 16-5-1 Over/Under (79% Overs) in their road games over the last eleven seasons. Average total PPG in those games was 42.6. In the last two seasons, the Texans have gone 3-1 Over/Under. Note: The Cardinals and Texans have split two prior preseason meetings.
StatSystemsSports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 5 times, while the favorite covered the spread 3 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the underdog won the game straight up 5 times, while the favorite won the game straight up 3 times. 12 games went over the total, while 7 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 13 times, while the underdog covered first half line 9 times. *No EDGE. 21 games went over first half total, while 15 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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w-thumbs!^
