SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Buffalo at Washington
The Redskins look to build on their blowout win over the Colts in Sunday’s Hall of Fame Game when they host the Bills at FedEx Field.
Washington cruised to a 30-16 win at Canton, Ohio, on Sunday as a five-point favorite, making a winner of new coach Jim Zorn in his debut. Despite that victory, the Redskins are still just 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in August since the start of the 2005 exhibition season, including 0-3 at home (1-2 ATS) the last two years.
Buffalo went 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS in the first two summers under coach Dick Jauron, but 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the road, all as an underdog. Going back to 2003, Buffalo is 8-2-1 ATS as a preseason ‘dog.
Starting quarterback Jason Campbell, who went 5-for-5 and threw a touchdown pass on his one and only drive against the Colts on Sunday, will start tonight and play the first quarter. Rookie Colt Brennan will take over for Campbell and finish the first half, with veteran Todd Collins playing the third quarter and rookie Sam Hollenbach possibly finishing up. Also, RB Clinton Portis, who sat out the Hall of Fame game against Indy, will be on the field for about 10 plays tonight.
Second-year starter Trent Edwards will begin the game under center for Buffalo, but likely will only see limited action before handing off to former No. 1 QB J.P. Losman and third-stringer Gilbran Hamdan. Jauron did not unveil specifics with regard to playing time for his quarterbacks.
The under is 9-3 in Buffalo’s last 12 preseason games since 2003, including 6-0 on the road, while Washington has stayed low in three of its last four August home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE:BUFFALO and UNDER
Indianapolis at Carolina
The Colts once again will take the field without star quarterback Peyton Manning when they travel to Carolina for a clash with the Panthers.
Indianapolis’ preseason woes continued in Sunday’s 30-16 loss to Washington in the Hall of Fame Game. The Colts have now dropped 12 of their last 14 exhibition contests since 2005, going 3-11 ATS during this stretch, including 2-5 ATS on the road (1-6 SU) and 1-7 ATS as an underdog.
Carolina went 14-2 SU and 11-5 ATS in the preseason from 2003-2006, including 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home. However, the Panthers slipped to 1-3 SU and ATS last year, including 0-2 SU and ATS at home. John Fox’s club is just 3-7 ATS as a preseason chalk since 2005.
Jim Sorgi is scheduled to start in place of Manning for the second straight game, with Jared Lorenzen backing up, followed by Quinn Gray. All three passers are battling it out to be Manning’s backup.
Panthers starting quarterback Jake Delhomme, who had reconstructive elbow surgery last year, is expected to start tonight but said he has no idea how long he’ll be on the field. Once Delhomme departs, backup Matt Moore figures to take over, followed by Brett Basanez and possibly Lester Ricard. Meanwhile, former Pro Bowl WR Steve Smith is eligible to play despite being suspended for the first two regular-season games for punching a teammate in practice.
The under is 5-0 in the Colts’ last five non-neutral site preseason road outings, though last week’s game at Canton flew over the total. Meanwhile, the under is 4-2 in Carolina’s last six in August, including 4-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE:CAROLINA and UNDER
Atlanta at Jacksonville
The Mike Smith era kicks off in northern Florida tonight, as the rookie coach leads his Falcons against the Jaguars.
Atlanta struggled through a miserable 2007 season without disgraced quarterback Michael Vick, but did manage to go 3-1 SU and ATS in the one and only preseason under then-coach Bobby Petrino. Over the past three summers, the Falcons are 4-2 SU and ATS on the road and 6-2 ATS as an underdog.
Jacksonville preceded its run to last year’s AFC divisional playoffs with its second consecutive 3-1 SU and ATS preseason, all as a favorite. Since coach Jack Del Rio took over the Jags in 2003, the team has dominated summer games, going 14-6 (13-7 ATS), including 8-2 at home (6-5 ATS).
Chris Redman gets the starting nod at quarterback for Atlanta. Once Redman departs tonight, rookie Matt Ryan is slated to take over and get an extended look, with D.J. Shockley and Joey Harrington – who are battling for the No. 3 job – also slated to see action. Smith said his desire is for all four of his QBs to get a relatively equal number of snaps tonight.
Del Rio was noncommittal in terms of playing time for his starters tonight. It’s expected that QB David Garrard will take the field with the first unit and play no more than one quarter, followed by veteran backups Cleo Lemon and Todd Bauman, both newcomers to Jacksonville.
The total has alternated in Atlanta’s last seven preseason contests, but the over is 3-1 in each of Jacksonville’s last three exhibition campaigns.
ATS ADVANTAGE:NONE
Tampa Bay at Miami
The Dolphins begin the process of putting a nightmarish 2007 season behind them when they host the Buccaneers in South Beach.
After a 1-15 season, Miami fired coach Cam Cameron after just one season and hired former Cowboys offensive line coach Tony Sparano, who has never been an NFL head coach. Sparano takes over a squad that has split its four preseason games (both SU and ATS) the last two years and four of the last five. The Dolphins have also been mediocre at home in August, splitting their two preseason contests at Dolphin Stadium each of the last five years (4-5-1 ATS). Miami is also 3-6-1 ATS as an exhibition chalk going back to 2003.
Tampa Bay, which went from worst to first in the NFC South last year, begins its seventh season under coach John Gruden. Last year, the Bucs went 3-1 SU and ATS in August, and they’ve had just one losing preseason in the last five years, going 13-8 SU and 12-7-2 ATS during this stretch.
These instate rivals meet each preseason, with Tampa Bay going 4-2 SU (4-1-1 ATS) in the last six clashes, including last year’s 31-28 victory as a 2½-point home favorite.
Bucs starting quarterback Jeff Garcia will sit this one out while nursing an injury, which means Luke McCown will begin under center and play the first quarter. Brian Griese is slated to play the second quarter, with Chris Simms and rookie Josh Johnson also expected to get some snaps.
Sparano has informed his three quarterbacks – veteran Josh McCown (Luke’s brother), second-year pro John Beck and rookie Chad Henne – of his plans for playing time tonight, but did not reveal it publicly, though all are expected to play. Each QB has struggled throughout camp, and each has spent time working with the first-string offense, though McCown is listed No. 1 on the depth chart. Meanwhile, RB Ronnie Brown, who is coming off a season-ending knee injury, will be a game-time decision.
The over is 5-0 in Miami’s last five exhibition home games, 3-1 in Tampa’s last four August games overall and 3-1 in its last four on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE:TAMPA BAY and OVER
St. Louis at Tennessee
The Rams, minus holdout running back Stephen Jackson, head to Tennessee to take on the Titans as these two squads cap a week of testy intrasquad scrimmages with one final battle against each other in Nashville.
St. Louis, which endured an injury-plagued 3-13 season last year, is 3-5 (2-6 ATS) in two preseasons under coach Scott Linehan, including 1-3 SU and ATS on the road. In fact, going back to 2003, the Rams are just 2-8 (3-7 ATS) in preseason road games and 3-7 ATS as an underdog.
Tennessee went 3-1 SU and ATS last summer after going 2-6 SU and ATS the previous two Augusts. However, since winning and covering four straight preseason home games from 2003-04, the Titans are mired in a 1-5 SU and ATS funk in Nashville in the summer. They’re also 1-5 ATS as a favorite during this stretch.
Marc Bulger figures to get the start for the Rams, though Linehan didn’t say how long his starters will be on the field. Trent Green is listed as Bulger’s backup, with Brock Berlin and Bruce Gradkowski battling for the third-string job. Meanwhile, with Jackson holding out, the RB chores fall to veteran backup Michael Pittman.
Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher said starting QB Vince Young and the first-stringers are slated to play into the second quarter. Veteran Kerry Collins will replace Young before giving way to Ingle Martin.
The Titans topped the total in each of their last three preseason games in 2007, but the under is 3-1 in their last four August home games. The under is also 3-1 in St. Louis’ last four exhibition contests on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE:UNDER
Denver at Houston
Fresh off their first non-losing season in franchise history, the Texans hit the field for the first time in 2008 when they host the Broncos.
Houston is 5-3 (5-2-1 ATS) in two preseasons under coach Gary Kubiak after going 2-10 SU and ATS in the previous three summers. The Texans are 3-1 (2-1-1 ATS) at home in the summer under Kubiak, but just 1-3-1 ATS as a chalk since 2003.
Denver, which is hoping to rebound from a disappointing 7-9 regular season, has been a strong preseason club over the past six years, going 17-8 (15-10 ATS), including 9-3 SU and ATS on the road. They’re also 4-2 ATS as an underdog during this stretch. Last year, though, Mike Shanahan’s club split its two home and two road exhibition battles, both SU and ATS.
These teams met every year in August from 2003-06, with the Broncos winning all four games (3-1 ATS). However, in the regular season last year, the Texans earned big-time revenge in a 31-13 rout as a 2½-point home underdog.
Shanahan kept his plans for playing time tonight under wraps, but expect QB Jay Cutler to start and play anywhere from two series to the first quarter. Patrick Ramsey is the backup, while Darrell Hackney is third on the depth chart.
Matt Schaub, entering his second year as the Texans top quarterback, will start tonight, but it’s believed that backup Sage Rosenfels, who played in five games in relief of Schaub last year, will see more action. Shane Boyd will take over for Rosenfels, with rookie Alex Brink possibly seeing mop-up duty. However, none of the QBs figure to be throwing to top WR Andre Johnson, who is expected to miss the game because of injury.
The under was 3-1 for Denver last summer and the under is 3-1 in the last four preseason meetings between these clubs. However, Houston topped the total in all four of its preseason games in 2007, and the over is 3-1 in its last four in August at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE
ENVER
Dallas at San Diego
The Chargers return to the playing field for the first time since losing in the AFC Championship game at New England in January when they host the Cowboys, the odds-on favorite to win the NFC.
After four straight 2-2 SU and ATS preseasons under then-coach Marty Schottenheimer, San Diego finally enjoyed a winning summer last year, going 3-1 for first-year coach Norv Turner. However, the Chargers once again went 2-2 ATS. On the bright side, San Diego is 5-1 the last three Augusts at Qualcomm Stadium (4-2 ATS).
Dallas went 2-2 SU and ATS in Wade Phillips’ first year as head coach last summer, but 0-2 SU and ATS on the road. However, dating to 2002, the Cowboys are an impressive 16-7-1 in preseason action (16-8 ATS). They’re also 5-2 ATS as an underdog during this stretch.
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, who is coming back from offseason knee surgery, will start and play two series. Backup Billy Volek will take over and play until the end of the third quarter, with third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst finishing up. As is the case every preseason, San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson will not play in August. Also, All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates will be held out because of injury.
The Cowboys’ starters on both sides of the ball – including QB Tony Romo and WR Terrell Owens – are expected to play about a quarter, Phillips said, adding that he has a predetermined play count for the first-string. Once Romo departs, veteran Brad Johnson will take over under center, followed by Richard Bartel.
The over is 5-1 in San Diego’s last six exhibition outings, while the Cowboys topped the total in their final preseason three games in 2007.
ATS ADVANTAGE:OVER
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MLB
<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (66-50) at Chicago White Sox (64-50)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (12-2, 3.04 ERA) looks to continue his stellar season when he leads the Red Sox against Jose Contreras (7-6, 4.60 ERA) and the White Sox as this weekend series continues at U.S. Cellular Field.
Chicago held on for a 5-3 victory in Friday’s series-opener, its third win in four games on this homestand. The White Sox are now 38-17 at home this year, including 6-0 in their last six as a home underdog, and they’re also 6-1 in Contreras’ last seven outings at U.S. Cellular.
Despite Friday’s setback, Boston is still 5-2 in its last even games. Also, the Red Sox are on positive streaks of 43-22 versus the A.L. Central, 37-18 as a favorite, 15-4 when Matsuzaka pitches this season, 21-5 when Matsuzaka goes off as a favorite and 6-0 when Dice-K faces the Central. However, despite winning five of its last seven road games, Terry Francona’s club remains under .500 on the highway for this season (26-34, compared with 40-16 in Boston).
The White Sox snapped a seven-game losing streak to Boston with last night’s victory, including a four-game slump at home. Still, going back to 2006, the Red Sox are 11-4 against Chicago, including 6-2 at U.S. Cellular.
Matsuzaka has yielded two earned runs or less in 14 of his 19 starts in 2008, including six of the last seven. On Sunday against Oakland, he allowed two runs on four hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in six innings en route to a 5-2 win. The right-hander is also 5-0 with a 2.20 ERA in eight road starts. However, in his lone career outing against the White Sox, he allowed three runs in five innings of a 4-2 loss last July 19.
Contreras returns from a three-week stint on the disabled list because of an injury to his right elbow. Before going on the shelf, the veteran right-hander got rocked in consecutive road starts at Kansas City and Texas, surrendering a combined 12 runs and 20 hits in 9 2/3 innings. However, at home this year, Contreras is 4-3 with a 3.34 ERA in nine starts.
The White Sox went 5-0 with Contreras on the mound against Boston from August 2004 through the 2006 season. But in his lone start against the Red Sox last year, Contreras got drilled for 10 runs on 10 hits in 7 1/3 innings of a 10-3 road loss. He’s 3-5 with a 9.12 ERA in 10 career appearances against the BoSox.
For Chicago, the over is on runs of 16-6-1 overall, 7-3 at home, 7-2-1 as an underdog, 5-0 overall with Contreras on the hill and 8-2 when Contreras faces the Red Sox. Also, the over is 7-2 in Boston’s last nine on Saturday. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on streaks of 7-1 overall and 6-1 in Chicago, with the lone “under” occurring Friday night.
ATS ADVANTAGE:BOSTON and OVER
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lay On MLB (NL) home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a team batting average <=.255) against a starting pitcher whose ERA <=3.70, with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season, 70-22 SU since 1997 (76.1%)
