STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF STAT/SHEETS
SATURDAY, AUGUST 30th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #1 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NCAA College Football News and Notes - Week #1
•Central Florida (+4.5) won 34-31 at Penn State last year, running ball for 219 yards; total yardage was 507-455, but UCF has new quarterback, 3 new starters on offensive line. Lions have new head coach in former Vanderbilt mentor James Franklin. Penn State lost 4 starters on OL; they're 2-4 in last six neutral field games; its sophomore QB had 12 starts in 2013. UCF covered four of last six on neutral field. This game is being played in Ireland, for some reason.
•Ohio State lost senior quarterback Miller for season, a damaging blow; they beat Navy 31-27 (-22) in last meeting five years ago. Buckeyes are 5-8-1 versus spread in last 14 games as road favorite; they lost 4 starters on offensive line from last year. Midshipmen have 15 starters back and junior QB with 21 starts- they're 20-9 as an underdog (79.3%) under coach Niumatololo. Buckeyes are in trouble at QB, experience-wise- they had 12 days to prep new QB to start.
•UCLA has 17 starters back, a quarterback with 27 starts, an NFL head coach and is 5-2 in last seven tries as road favorites; they covered seven of last eight out of conference games. Virginia is 4-8-1 in last 13 games as home dog; they have 3 starters back on offensive line, sophomore QB with 7 starts, are just 3-9-1 in last 13 non-ACC games. Long road trip for Bruins, who don't play Texas for two weeks, shouldn't be looking past Cavaliers.
•Troy won four of last five meetings with Alabama-Birmingham, with three of last four won by 3 or less points; Trojans are 2-3 in last five visits to Legion Field, with underdog 3-2 versus spread in those games. Blazers have new head coach, new quarterback, but also has 15 other starters back- they're 4-12 versus spread in last 16 games when favored. Troy has new QB, 6 starters back on both sides of ball- they are 5-2-1 in last 8 games as dogs. Average total last four series games, 61.8.
•Northwestern (-5.5)won 44-30 at Berkeley in last season's opener, running ball for 209 yards. Wildcats were 5-0 as home favorites in 2013, after being 5-18 as HFs under Fitzgerald before that. NW has all five starters back on offensive line, but has senior quarterback with only 3 career starts. California has 4 starters back on OL; they're 2-7 in last nine games as road dogs. Bears have a sophomore QB with 12 starts- they had 460 passing yards in LY's game.
•Notre Dame gets mobile quarterback Golson back after he was suspended last season; he led Irish to national title game in 2012. Irish have 3 starters back on offensive line, are 8-11-3 as home favorites under Kelly, 27-48 overall when favored in last decade. Rice covered six of last seven games as road underdog- they have 3 starters back on OL, junior QB is making only 2nd start. Notre Dame plays Michigan next week, figure to hold back a little here.
•Alabama didn't name #1 quarterback this week; they've got three starters back on offensive line. Crimson Tide are 17-11 as road favorites under Saban, covering eight of last 10 on neutral fields, but are just 6-8 versus spread out of South Eastern Conference play last three seasons. West Virginia is 7-7 as underdogs under Holgorsen; they've got senior QB (9 starts) but only two starters back on OL. The Mountaineers are 8-16 versus spread in last 24 non-conference games.
•Arkansas won four of last six matchups with Auburn; underdogs are 9-5 versus spread in last 14 series meetings, 5-2 in last seven visits to Jordan Hare Stadium, with Razorbacks winning three of last four games on this field. Marshalll will play but won't start at quarterback for Tigers after weed bust this spring. Auburn has 4 starters back on offensive line, is 22-12 versus spread in conference play (64.7%) last four years. Arkansas is 5-12 versus spread in last 17 games as underdog, 3-8 in last 11 games as a road dog.
•Clemson (+2.5) beat Georgia 38-35 in 2013, first renewal since 2003 of an old intense rivalry; Bulldogs had 545-467 yardage edge last year, 222-197 running ball. Both sides have new quarterback; Georgia's QB is senior who made couple starts last season, including bowl loss to Nebraska. Georgia is 5-8 as favorite at home since 2012, 10-15 in non-league tilts since 2009. Tigers are 6-3 as road underdogs under Swinney, 14-10 versus spread overall on foreign soil.
•Kent State won four of last five games with Ohio U; underdogs covered three of last four meetings. Bobcats lost last two visits to Dix Stadium both by an identical 28-6 score. Ohio is 1-6 as road underdogs since 2011; they've got a new quarterback but have 3 starters back on offensive line. Kent has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they're 10-6 as home favorites (62.5%) since 2009, 1-1 under Haynes, in his first year at Kent.
•Purdue (-1.5) beat Western Michigan 37-32 in last meeting three years ago; Boilermakers have sophomore quarterback (7 starts), three new starters on offensive line with no senior starters but are 5-4 in last nine tries as home favorite- they have 15 starters back overall. Broncos are 1-11 in Fleck's first year as head coach; they're 8-6 as roads underdogs since 2011. Western Michigan could go with a freshman QB, as new coaches usually prefer their own recruits.
•Florida Statereturns Heisman winner Winston at quarterback, has four starters back on offensive line (5 senior starters) and has covered 12 of last 15 games on a neutral field. Seminoles are 13-11 versus spread away from home with Fisher as coach. Oklahoma State has junior QB (8 starts) but lost 3 starters on OL; they're 5-3 versus spread in last eight games as underdogs. The Cowboys lost 7 starters on both sides of ball from last season.
•LSU will use two quarterbacks, but Jennings played in Outback Bowl win over Iowa last season; Tigers have 4 starters back on offensive line, are 7-6 in last 13 games as road favorites, 11-17 versus spread in last 28 non-South Eastern Conference games. Wisconsin will use more mobile QB rather than experienced (19 starts) returning starter Stave. Badgers covered five of last seven games as underdogs, are 8-5-1 versus spread in last 14 games on neutral fields.
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Total Notes - Week #1
Expert Jude Ravo
The 2014-15 NCAA College Football season is underway and this column will be focusing on totals throughout the season. After watching Thursday night’s action, it’s apparent that the oddsmakers will be making major adjustments to their power ratings, especially after watching three healthy road underdogs (Texas A&M, Temple, Rutgers) capture outright victories.
Each week throughout the college football season, we're going to lean on StatSystems Sports Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo and his expertise on totals. When it comes to analyzing college number there aren’t many that can measure up to his knowledge and we believe you’ll find that out for yourself. With that being said, we asked him some questions on his approach and the upcoming season.
Question: Due to the up-tempo attacks in college football, how should bettors handicap the opening numbers based on the teams and their styles?
Ravo: Setting numbers for the college football totals marketplace has certainly changed over the last 5 years and, unlike in the NFL, where rule changes have been a big part of the altered landscape, the college game seems to have been more effected by tempo and conference dynamics. Teams going to an ultra-up-tempo style, and having success, have caused other teams and coaches to take a hard look at the number of plays run in a game and how that effects scoring. In addition, the success of some of those faster paced programs has caused traditional rivals and conference affiliates to adjust and adapt in an attempt to "keep pace."
This is really evident in the Big XII Conference where we regularly see totals now that would have been considered outlandish just a few years ago. This is largely due to the Big XII leading all conferences in average MOP (average number of plays run per minute of offensive possession time). The lowest widely available total posted for Week #1 was 47 while we saw eight games (20.5%) open with totals of 60 or higher... the median opening total across all games was 54.5. According to Ravo, the below chart he created is a great guide to understanding totals in college football.
•Very low would be 40 or under
•Low total anything lined at 47 or less.
•Meduim total would be from 47.5 to 56
•High from 56.5 to 67.
•Very high anything over 67.5.
Question: For Week #1, what’s the proper approach a bettor should take?
Ravo: The first week of the college football season is an instance where a prepared and experienced total bettor can probably find the biggest variance between his numbers and the books. This can create excellent betting opportunities but limits are usually lower and there are inherently more variables involved as there are less pertinent data to use. While later in the season I may play ANY total that is 3 points off from my line, in the opening weeks it may take a bigger difference for me to make a play based ONLY on my own numbers.
Question: What factors are the most important to look at when handicapping Week #1?
Ravo: Early on the most important factors for betting totals are coaching continuity, tempo, expected PPD, and matchups... but as always it’s about the number you are betting into and betting into soft lines early remains the easiest and surest way to win.
Question: What differentiates your technique from other professionals?
Ravo: I rely heavily on my own offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to both make my own number and determine what totals to bet. Essentially my offensive efficiency ratings give each team's chance to score per possession. It does not differentiate between the type of score (FG, TD) but allows me to gauge a team’s ability to create points per possession. Conversely, my defensive efficiency ratings give me each teams expected chance to stop the other team from scoring on each possession. It is not relative to field position, or TO margin, but an average across all expected enemy possessions. Both total number of possessions and total number of plays run are important to determining an offenses effect on the total but I value possessions and PPD (points per drive) more as Yards Per Play and TOP can be deceiving at times and some teams who run a high number of offensive plays are not necessarily efficient.
Line Moves
If you look at Thursday’s results from the first six games, all of them had significant moves and the house got beat up. Bettors going with the money, would’ve went 5-1 and the winners were clear-cut. The lone loser was the Tulane-Tulsa matchup which had an opener of 47 and close of 45 ½. Tulsa captured a 38-31 win in overtime. As of Friday, some lucky bettors are staring at a middle of close to 10 points on the Bowling Green-Western Kentucky game. The total opened 54 ½ at CRIS and is hovering at 64. When you see that much of a shift, it’s apparent that the professionals (Sharps, Wiseguys, etc...) believe the opener was a huge mistake.
Listed below are totals that have had a move of at least three points of the opener from CRIS, a major offshore outfit that is one of the first to release numbers. Make a note that you can follow all the moves for every game via our Odds and/or Scores.
•Ohio State-Navy: 57½ to 54½
•UCLA-Virginia: 57 to 54
•Georgia Southern-N.C. State: 53½ to 56½
•Ohio-Kent: 51 to 47½
•North Texas-Texas: 52½ to 49½
•UTEP-New Mexico: 67½ to 64½
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Top 5 Win Totals
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
College football is back! I think I speak for a ton of fans when I say it’s good to have college football going once again. One of the areas where I have been most profitable over the years is finding regular season win totals plays that have value. I love breaking down a team’s strengths and weaknesses and evaluating the schedule to see what kind of value I can find on these season long wagers. If you are comfortable with tying up your money for a few months, I truly believe season win totals are among the best bets out there. Here’s a look at five of my favorite college football win totals for 2014.
#1 Virginia Tech - OVER 8
This one is available for the regular -110 juice almost everywhere, and I really like this play. Frank Beamer is still one the best coaches in the land, and Bud Foster might be the best defensive coordinator in all of college football. The Hokies churn out the best defensive backs into the NFL every single year. I expect Virginia Tech’s secondary to be a “no fly zone” once again this year. The key for me though is the Hokies improved offense. Quarterback Michael Brewer should be a big step up from the extremely inconsistent Logan Thomas. Brewer showed what he could do at Texas Tech, and he’ll excel in the ACC.
The Hokies receivers and running backs are much better than they were a year ago. There is plenty of depth at every position on offense. Another big key here is the Hokies schedule. Virginia Tech plays at home against Georgia Tech and Miami. The Hokies have to travel to Ohio State and North Carolina this year, but with Braxton Miller down with an injury I wouldn’t be surprised if Virginia Tech is competitive in that game. The Hokies won eight games despite being awful offensively last year. Ten wins is far more likely than eight this season. Bet the over.
#2 Vanderbilt -UNDER 6
This win total was originally available at under 6.5 wins. Now, you’ll have to pay up a bit to get under 6, but it should be worth it in the end. The Commodores have had two overachieving seasons under James Franklin, and they are due for a down year. Vanderbilt was -76 yards per game last year in the SEC despite their 4-4 record. That tells me last year’s 9-4 record was a fluke. In addition, last year’s team had loads more talent than this year’s team will have. The loss of wide receiver Jordan Matthews will crush this team’s offense. They also lost three of their top four tacklers from a year ago. I look at Vanderbilt’s schedule and see a 4-8 record in their future. Bet the under.
#3 UCLA - OVER 9.5
The UCLA Bruins are a national title contender in my opinion. I love Brett Hundley, and the job he did last year was nothing short of amazing. Nearly everyone around him (running backs, offensive line, etc) were going down with an injury, and Hundley still managed to put up big numbers and lead the team to a 10-3 record. The Bruins have recruited really well, and Jim Mora Jr. is an underrated head coach. They should certainly stay healthier than they did a year ago. UCLA hosts Oregon as well as USC and Stanford. The schedule sets up nicely, and UCLA should be favored in at least 11 of its 12 games. Take the over.
#4 Toledo - OVER 7.5
The Toledo Rockets are going to dominate in the trenches in the Mid-American Conference this year. The MAC is a conference where there are a bunch of weak teams in the trenches, and that allows Toledo to take advantage of their strength. Keep advantage of Kareem Hunt as a future star at running back. The Rockets are a veteran team (16 returning starters) who is very capable of making short work of nearly every conference foe. They get Bowling Green at home this year, and Northern Illinois should be much weaker than they have been in recent years. I think Toledo wins at least nine games this season. Take the over.
#5 Stanford - UNDER 9
The Pac-12 is an extremely sound conference with lots of improved teams this year, and that means that someone has to take a step back. I expect one of those teams to be the Stanford Cardinal. While I respect what David Shaw is doing at Stanford, I think the talent level at this program has dipped significantly below the talent level at a school like Oregon or UCLA. Kevin Hogan is going to have to be the man for this offense this season, and I’m not sure he is the type of quarterback that can win games alone. The Cardinal front seven on defense is much weaker than a year ago. Look at the road games Stanford must play this year: at Washington, at Notre Dame, at Arizona State, at Oregon, and at UCLA. I see seven or eight wins for Stanford in 2014. Take the under.
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Gridiron Trends - Saturday
•NORTH TEXAS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NORTH TEXAS 30.5, OPPONENT 18.4.
•FLORIDA ST is 15-3 UNDER (+11.6 Units) as a neutral field favorite since 1992.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 30.5, OPPONENT 16.0.
•W MICHIGAN is 2-13 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 since 1992.
The average score was W MICHIGAN 20.9, OPPONENT 30.4.
•MISSISSIPPI ST is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 22.8, OPPONENT 8.8.
•HAWAII is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) the 1rst half total when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HAWAII 14.7, OPPONENT 21.1.
•DAN MCCARNEY is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in road games in games played on turf in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was MCCARNEY 21.4, OPPONENT 34.8.
Situational Analysis of the Week
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (AUBURN) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season.
(50-1 over the last 5 seasons.) (98%, +48.7 units. Rating = 8*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -130
The average score in these games was: Team 43.8, Opponent 15.5 (Average point differential = +28.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-1, +21.7 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (84-9, +36.3 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (133-29, +18.8 units).
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