STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SATURDAY, AUGUST 2nd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 8/2/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #18
•Mets' Harvey Tosses Pitches From Mound: New York Mets ace Matt Harvey threw off a mound Friday for the first time since he had elbow surgery in October. The All-Star right-hander, who underwent Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery on Oct. 22, was restricted to 15 pitches at about 60 percent velocity, Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said. Alderson said Harvey will ramp up a rehab program starting Tuesday at the Mets' training complex in Port St. Lucie, Fla., through the beginning of October. He will pitch against batters in the instructional league and might make one start in the Arizona Fall League. While Harvey hoped to return to the major leagues this year, Alderson said the Mets are hoping he will be healthy for spring training in 2015. The 25-year-old Harvey started 26 games last season and posted a 9-5 record with a 2.27 ERA before he was injured.
•Marlins RHP Alvarez Goes On DL: Miami Marlins All-Star pitcher Henderson Alvarez was placed on the 15-day disabled list Friday because of inflammation in his right shoulder. The move was retroactive to Wednesday. The Marlins also recalled left-hander Dan Jennings from Triple-A New Orleans. Alvarez, who was scheduled to start Sunday game against Cincinnati, was named to the All-Star team this season for the first time in his career. He's 8-5 with three shutouts and a 2.48 ERA. Alvarez pitched seven scoreless innings Tuesday in a 3-0 victory over Washington. He showed some discomfort in the second inning, but stayed in the game after manager Mike Redmond and trainers tended to him. The Marlins acquired right-handed starting pitcher Jarred Cosart from the Houston Astros shortly before Thursday's non-waiver trade deadline and Cosart will make his team debut Friday against Cincinnati. Jacob Turner, who was briefly moved to the bullpen in place of Cosart, will start Sunday in Alvarez's spot.
•Phillies Place P Cliff Lee On 15-Day DL: The Philadelphia Phillies placed left-hander Cliff Lee on the 15-day disabled list with an elbow strain Friday and recalled left-hander Cesar Jimenez from Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Lee left in the third inning of Thursday night's win over the Washington Nationals with a left flexor pronator strain, an apparent recurrence of the injury that put him on the disabled list in May. Manager Ryne Sandberg said Friday that Lee will be examined by the team doctor Saturday in Washington, and undergo an MRI and additional tests when the team returns to Philadelphia early next week. The 35-year-old Lee (4-5, 3.65) missed two months because of a strained left elbow, and was making his third start since coming off the disabled list. Jimenez, 29, appeared in two games for Philadelphia in June, pitching two scoreless innings. With Lehigh Valley, he was 3-2 with a 1.45 ERA in 38 games, including two starts.
•Angels Put Left-Hander Skaggs On DL: The Los Angeles Angels placed left-hander Tyler Skaggs on the 15-day disabled list Friday because of a strained forearm and recalled left-hander Michael Roth from Double-A Arkansas. Skaggs was hurt Thursday night in a 1-0, 13-inning win at Baltimore. The left-hander had not allowed a hit when he left with two outs in the fifth. Angels manager Mike Scioscia hopes Skaggs will pitch again this season, but says the injury "might take a little bit of time" to heal Skaggs is 5-5 with 4.30 ERA in 18 starts this season. Roth is making his second stint with the Angels this season. In his lone appearance this year, he went two perfect innings to get a win against Houston on July 5.
•Indians Designate Zach McAllister: The Cleveland Indians designated right-hander Zach McAllister for assignment Friday and plan to send him to Triple-A Columbus after he clears optional waivers. McAllister, who hasn't won since April 21, is 3-6 with a 5.91 ERA in 14 starts. He won his first three decisions, but is 0-6 with a 7.89 ERA in his last 10 starts. McAllister missed six weeks this season because of a sore back. With the exception of staff ace Corey Kluber, Cleveland's starting pitchers have struggled all season. Kluber is the only remaining member of the rotation that began the season. Justin Masterson, the team's opening-day starter, was traded to St. Louis on Wednesday. The Indians recalled outfielder Tyler Holt from Columbus before Friday's game against Texas. Chris Dickerson, who injured his left knee Thursday, is expected to miss a couple of days.
•Royals' 1B Eric Hosmer Out 3-6 Weeks: Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer will be out three to six weeks with a stress fracture of the third finger of his right hand. He aggravated a previous injury on a check swing in the fourth inning of a 6-3 victory Thursday night over the Minnesota Twins. Billy Butler hit for Hosmer in the sixth and X-rays revealed the fracture. Hosmer was hit by a pitch by Jon Lester on July 20 at Boston and did not start six of the next seven games. "Very frustrating, bad timing," Hosmer said. Hosmer, who will go on the disabled list, had a 16-game hitting streak before Lester's pitch hit him.
•Rockies' Gonzalez Leaves Game After Sliding Catch: Colorado Rockies right fielder Carlos Gonzalez has left Friday night's game at Detroit after sliding into the wall while making a terrific catch in foul ground. Gonzalez caught Victor Martinez's flyball to end the fifth inning, then limped off the field, having aggravated a sprained right ankle. He was replaced in the sixth by Brandon Barnes. Gonzalez is having a rough season, hitting only .237 with 10 homers. Friday's injury comes three weeks after he came off the disabled list - he missed over a month with a left index finger injury.
•Twins' Mauer, Nolasco Set For Rehab Stints: Minnesota Twins first baseman Joe Mauer and starter Ricky Nolasco are scheduled to begin minor league rehab stints next week. Assistant general manager Rob Antony said Friday both players will head to Class A Cedar Rapids and could be ready to return to the majors the following week. Antony said Mauer (strained right oblique) will drive to Cedar Rapids on Sunday, work out Monday and start playing Tuesday. He might join the team in Houston, where the Twins play Aug. 11-13. A stop at Triple A also is possible. Nolasco (sore right elbow) will throw a bullpen session Saturday in Chicago, fly back to Minneapolis with the team on Sunday and work out Monday morning at Target Field before driving to Cedar Rapids.
He will start Tuesday with a 50-pitch limit and, assuming no setbacks, the following Sunday with a 75-pitch cap. It's been a tough season for both players, with Nolasco's ERA at a career-high 5.90 through 18 starts and Mauer batting .271 with just two homers and 28 RBIs in 76 games. He was injured swinging on a two-run double against Kansas City on July 1 that stretched his hitting streak to 12 games, and he went on the disabled list the following day. Before that surge, the six-time All-Star and three-time American League batting champion been in his worst slump ever, his average dipping as low as .254 a couple of times in June.
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Betting Notes - Saturday
National League
•Phillies-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Burnett is 0-2, 6.50 in his last three starts.
--Zimmerman is 0-1, 5.87 in his last three starts.
--Phillies won three of their last four games.
--Washington lost four of its last five games.
--Five of last six Burnett starts went over the total.
•Reds-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Bailey is 1-1, 2.00 in his last five starts.
--Eovaldi is 0-3, 6.69 in his last six starts.
--Cincinnati won three of its last four games.
--Marlins lost their last three games, scoring six runs. .
--Four of last five Bailey starts stayed under the total.
•Giants-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Peavy is 0-8, 5.37 in his last ten starts.
--DeGrom is 4-0, 0.66 in his last four starts.
--San Francisco lost six of its last eight games.
--Mets won nine of their last twelve home games.
--Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Peavy starts.
•Brewers-Cardinals - 7:15 PM
--Nelson is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
--Masterson was 0-1, 13.00 in his last three starts for Cleveland, before going on DL; his last start was July 7.
--Milwaukee lost four of last six road games.
--Cardinals lost seven of their last ten games.
--Nine of last eleven Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
•Pirates-Diamondbacks - 8:10 PM
--Worley is 2-0, 2.40 in his last couple starts.
--Arizona won last three Anderson starts (1-0, 1.89).
--Pirates won four of their last six games.
--Arizona is 8-1 in game following its last nine losses.
--Under is 4-1-1 in last six Anderson starts.
•Braves-Padres - 8:40 PM
--Santana is 3-0, 2.11 in his last three starts.
--Kennedy is 3-0, 2.53 in his last five starts.
--Atlanta lost eight of its last eleven road games.
--San Diego won five of its last six home games.
--Six of last eight Santana starts stayed under total.
•Cubs-Dodgers - 9:10 PM
--Wada is 1-1, 3.94 in three starts for the Cubs.
--Ryu is 3-0, 2.37 in his last three starts.
--Cubs lost nine of their last eleven road games.
--Dodgers won 15 of its last 21 home games.
--Under is 6-2-2 in last ten Ryu starts.
American League
•Royals-Athletics - 4:05 PM
--Vargas was 4-2, 2.83 in his last nine starts before his appendectomy; his last start was July 8.
--Lester was 4-1, 1.83 in his last eight starts for Boston.
--Royals won eight of their last ten games.
--Oakland lost three of its last four games.
--Last six Kansas City road games stayed under the total.
•Yankees-Red Sox - 4:05 PM
--Greene is 1-1, 4.42 in his last three starts.
--Webster allowed two runs in 5.1 IP in his first '14 start.
--New York lost five of its last six games.
--Red Sox lost eight of their last ten games.
--Six of last seven Yankees road games stayed under.
•Rangers-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Mikolas is 1-3, 10.29 in his last four starts.
--House is 1-1, 5.52 in his last six starts.
--Rangers lost nine of their last thirteen games.
--Cleveland lost eight of its last twelve games.
--Five of last seven Cleveland games went over the total.
•Mariners-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Paxton was 2-0, 2.25 in two starts back in April.
--Gonzalez is 1-0, 2.12 in his last four starts.
--Seattle lost seven of its last ten games.
--Baltimore won eight of its last eleven games.
--13 of last 15 Seattle games stayed under the total.
•Angels-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Wilson was 1-1, 8.58 in his last six starts before going on the DL.
--Archer is 2-2, 4.54 in his last six starts.
--Angels won 18 of their last 25 games.
--Tampa Bay won nine of 12 games since All-Star break.
--Under is 12-4-1 in last seventeen Angel games.
•Blue Jays-Astros - 7:10 PM
--Dickey is 3-2, 3.27 in his last five starts.
--Astros won last three Oberholtzer starts (1-0, 3.27).
--Blue Jays won eleven of their last fourteen games.
--Astros lost nine of their last thirteen home games.
--Over is 18-9 in last 27 Houston games.
•Twins-White Sox - 7:10 PM
--Pino is 1-1, 3.09 in his last four starts.
--Carroll is 2-1, 2.38 in his last four starts.
--Minnesota lost ten of its last fourteen games.
--White Sox won six of their last eight games.
--Under is 5-1-1 in Pino starts this season.
Interleague
•Rockies-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Matzek is 1-0, 2.08 in his last two starts.
--Porcello is 4-1, 2.13 in his last seven starts.
--Colorado lost 16 of its last 18 road games.
--Tigers lost five of their last seven games.
--Under is 4-1-1 in last six Porcello starts.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Burnett 10-12; Zimmerman 12-9
-- Bailey 9-12; Eovaldi 8-13
-- Peavy 5-15/0-1; DeGrom 6-8
-- Nelson 2-2; Masterson 10-9/0-0
-- Worley 4-3; Anderson 8-4
-- Santana 10-9; Kennedy 10-12
-- Wada 1-2; Ryu 12-8
-- Vargas 10-9; Lester 13-8/0-0
-- Greene 2-2; Webster 1-0
-- Mikolas 1-4; House 5-4
-- Paxton 2-0; Gonzalez 9-8
-- Wilson 10-9; Archer 10-11
-- Dickey 11-11; Oberholtzer 5-9
-- Pino 4-3; Carroll 4-7
-- Matzek 2-7; Porcello 13-7
•Umpires Trends
-- Phil-Wsh-- Five of last seven Guccione games stayed under.
-- Cin-Mia-- Over is 8-3-1 in Woodring games this season.
-- SF-NY-- 11 of last 14 O'Nora games stayed under total.
-- Mil-StL--- Home side won seven of last eight Cuzzi games.
-- Pitt-Az-- Road team won seven of last eight Kulpa games.
-- Atl-SD-- Last five Reynolds games stayed under total.
-- Cubs-LA-- Nine of eleven Randazzo games stayed under.
-- KC-A's-- 11 of 15 Basner games went over the total.
-- NY-Bos-- Four of last five TBarrett games stayed under.
-- Tex-Clev-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Hudson games.
-- Sea-Balt--- Four of last five Fagan games went over.
-- LA-TB-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Vanover games.
-- Tor-Hst-- Favorites won 12 of last 15 Baker games.
-- Min-Chi-- Five of last six Cederstrom games went over.
-- Col-Det-- Four of last five Davidson games stayed under.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Oakland's newly acquired Jon Lester has recorded a 14-1 mark against the money line in home games versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons. Lester is pitching for the first time since July 25th as the Red Sox scratched him from Wednesday’s scheduled start in anticipation of trading him. He tossed eight shutout innings of four-hit ball while beating Kansas City on July 20th to improve to 7-3 with a 1.43 ERA in 11 career starts against the Royals. The left-hander has a 3.52 ERA in six regular-season starts at O.co Coliseum.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
•BALTIMORE is 21-8 (+17.2 Units) against the money line versus a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.9, OPPONENT 3.4.
•CHICAGO CUBS are 46-26 OVER (+20.0 Units) versus National League teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.9, OPPONENT 4.6.
•CHI WHITE SOX are 17-3 (+14.2 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 this season.
The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 4.7, OPPONENT 3.7.
•HYUN-JIN RYU is 20-6 (+13.8 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was RYU 4.9, OPPONENT 2.7.
•C.J. WILSON is 20-6 OVER (+13.9 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WILSON 5.9, OPPONENT 5.0.
•BRETT OBERHOLTZER is 15-3 (+11.9 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OBERHOLTZER 3.8, OPPONENT 3.1.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (OAKLAND) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(45-5 since 1997.) (90.0%, +35.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -186
The average score in these games was: Team 6.1, Opponent 2.6 (Average run differential = +3.5)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +2.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2, +4.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-3, +14.5 units).
•Play On - Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (National League) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games.
(73-18 since 1997.) (80.2%, +43.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (42-49)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -163
The average score in these games was: Team 4.2, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 42 (46.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (14-5, +5.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-11, +17.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (54-16, +28.1 units).
•Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 or less (MIAMI) - with an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) - National League, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts.
(35-14 since 1997.) (71.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.9, Money Line=-111.8
The average score in these games was: Team 2.9, Opponent 3.7 (Total runs scored = 6.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 31 (64.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-5, -4.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-8, +3.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-10, +12.8 units).
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w-thumbs!^
