StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle – Saturday
#411 GREEN BAY @ #412 ST LOUIS
Line: Rams -3, Total: 41.5
The St. Louis Rams will play their final home game of the 2014 preseason when they host the Green Bay Packers (4:00 PM EST) in a rare afternoon kickoff on Saturday at the Edward Jones Dome. The Rams are still looking for their first exhibition win after dropping a 26-24 decision last week to New Orleans. Veteran signal caller Shaun Hill threw a pair of touchdown passes for the Rams in the setback, while Austin Davis picked up 134 yards and a score on 10- for-16 passing. Both starting quarterbacks, New Orleans' Drew Brees and Sam Bradford of the Rams, were given the night off.
Rookie defensive end Michael Sam, who is trying to become the first openly-gay player in the National Football League, played almost 40 snaps and acquitted himself well. "Mike played pretty well, got tired as well," Rams coach Jeff Fisher said. "But, he was in the 35-to-39-play range. Played with effort, made some mistakes. I would expect him to play much better this week after he gets whatever it is behind him like the rest of the rookie class, first-year guys. First preseason game is a little nerve wracking but I think he'll settle down."
Sam entered the game at left end for with about five minutes left in the first quarter and left with about five remaining in the third quarter. "The hardest critic is going to be myself," he said. "I could have done a little bit better, but I'm not mad about my first game. I know I could have done better."
Green Bay is also searching for its preseason victory after Jackie Battle's 7- yard touchdown run with 5:02 remaining lifted the Titans a 20-16 victory over the Packers in a rain-soaked affair at LP Field last Saturday. The rainfall amount reportedly reached three inches in the vicinity of the stadium, making ball security a problem for both squads. They combined for eight total fumbles. Star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, running back Eddie Lacy and wide receiver Jordy Nelson were all healthy scratches on Green Bay's first team.
Backup signal caller Matt Flynn threw for 49 and third-stringer Scott Tolzien, who is pushing Flynn, passed for 124. Veteran James Starks rushed for 49 yards and a score. Bradford, who hasn't played since tearing his ACL last October, is expected to start against Green Bay. "He's going to play," Fisher said. "I haven't decided how much, but he's going to play this week." Rodgers is also scheduled to at least take a few snaps for the Packers. "It's a real good defense," Rodgers said of the Rams. "It'd be nice to take a couple hits maybe, legal hits. This is the time of year we're trying to get to be playing the right way and get in and get out."
Saturday's game will be just the fifth preseason meeting between the Rams and Packers. The teams have split the prior four meetings.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 13 times, while the underdog covered the spread 3 times. *EDGE against the spread =ST LOUIS. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 16 times, while the underdog won straight up 2 times. 7 games went over the total, while 4 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 25 times, while the underdog covered first half line 14 times. *No EDGE. 11 games went over first half total, while 2 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (GREEN BAY) - after a loss by 6 or less points against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
(27-9 since 1993.) (75.0%, +17.1 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.3, Opponent 12.4 (Total first half points scored = 23.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
________________________________________________
#413 NY GIANTS @ #414 INDIANAPOLIS
Line: Colts -1.5, Total: 41
It hasn't been pretty but the New York Giants will take a perfect 2-0 preseason record into Indianapolis for a meeting with the Colts (7:00 PM EST) on Saturday evening. The Giants opened the 2014 NFL preseason with a 17-13 Hall of Fame Game victory over Buffalo before edging the Pittsburgh Steelers, 20-16, on Curtis Painter's 3- yard touchdown pass to Corey Washington late in the fourth quarter last Saturday.
Painter, who was once Peyton Manning's backup with the Colts, completed all seven of his passes for 68 yards and was efficient, using over seven minutes of the clock with a 12-play, 80-yard drive that culminated in Washington's short touchdown reception. The Giants' defense then stood tall in the final moments, forcing a fumble at their own 27-yard line to seal the win. Rashad Jennings led New York on the ground with 85 yards -- including a 73- yard TD run -- on five carries. Eli Manning started the game, but misfired on his only two passing attempts.
The Colts, meanwhile, dropped their preseason opener to the New York Jets, 13-10, last week when Andrew Furney kicked what turned out to be a game- winning 51-yard field goal with 1:18 remaining. Star signal caller Andrew Luck played one series, going 4-of-5 for 53 yards. T.Y. Hilton hauled in three of those completions for 38 yards, while offseason acquisition Hakeem Nicks, a former Giant, brought in the other one for 15 yards for the Colts, who won the AFC South with an 11-5 mark a year ago.
Coming off a disappointing season in which he averaged just 2.9 yards per carry and totaled 458 yards, former first-round pick Trent Richardson ran the ball five times for 13 yards. Veteran backup QB Matt Hasselbeck completed 10-of-15 passes for 114 yards and a touchdown for Indy, while Dan Herron recorded 26 yards rushing on seven carries and had six receptions for 36 yards and a score in defeat.
The Giants and Colts have met 13 times previously in the preseason with Indianapolis holding the advantage 8-5.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 12 times, while the underdog covered the spread 12 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 15 times, while the underdog won straight up 11 times. 15 games went under the total, while 6 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 31 times, while the favorite covered first half line 26 times. *No EDGE. 13 games went under first half total, while 12 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (NY GIANTS) - after playing a game at home against opponent after playing their last game on the road.
(48-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.6%, +27.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 10.3, Opponent 11.8 (Total first half points scored = 22)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-10).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (94-55).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (178-110).
_________________________________________________
#415 BALTIMORE @ #416 DALLAS
Line: Ravens -1, Total: 42
Get set for an inaugural event in North Texas (7:00 PM EST) on Saturday night as the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens meet for the first time ever in preseason play. The Cowboys' practice games got off to a rocky start in San Diego last week when Dallas' biggest weakness from a year ago, it's much-maligned defense, remained a serious problem in the team's 27-7 loss to the Chargers. The Chargers, who went 9-7 last season before losing to the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, racked up 395 yards of total offense.
With Tony Romo sitting out to rest his surgically repaired back, Brandon Weeden got the start for the Cowboys. The former Browns quarterback completed 13-of-17 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown to tight end James Hanna. Tight end Jason Witten and running backs DeMarco Murray and Lance Dunbar also sat out for Dallas, which has finished 8-8 the past three seasons. Joseph Randle carried the ball 13 times for 50 yards in the loss. "I thought there were some good things and still a lot of areas that we need to improve," said Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett.
The Cowboys, of course, lost edge rusher DeMarcus Ware and defensive tackle Jason Hatcher in free agency and then saw star middle linebacker Sean Lee suffer a season-ending knee injury during OTAs. Things only got worse this week when the National Football League confirmed that starting cornerback Orlando Scandrick will be suspended for the first four games of the 2014 season for violating the performance-enhancing drugs policy.
Baltimore, on the other hand, rolled in its preseason opener as Justin Tucker hit three field goals in the Ravens' 23-3 victory over the San Francisco 49ers. In a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII (The Harbaugh Bowl), it was John's Ravens coming out on top again as Bernard Pierce's touchdown run in the first quarter gave the team all the points it needed against Jim's Niners. Starting quarterback Joe Flacco led Baltimore on an 80-yard touchdown drive in his only series and set the tone for a Ravens offense that amassed 386 yards.
"You expect to go out there and have a good drive," said Flacco, who completed 4-of-5 passes for 52 yards. "You envision good things happening. You have a good idea of what plays you're going to run. It went on schedule." Embattled Baltimore running back Ray Rice saw limited action as he carried the ball three times for 17 yards. Rice has been suspended for the first two games of the regular season following his arrest earlier this year on charges he hit his now wife in an Atlantic City casino, but he can participate in all preseason activities.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 14 times, while the underdog covered the spread 13 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 17 times, while the underdog won straight up 11 times. 10 games went under the total, while 9 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 22 times, while the underdog covered first half line 21 times. *No EDGE. 16 games went over first half total, while 10 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (DALLAS) - in non-conference games, after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game.
(61-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.2%, +41.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.4, Opponent 11.4 (Total first half points scored = 23.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (114-55).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (227-135).
__________________________________________________
Covered And Smothered
Do you have everything you need for football season yet? StatSystemsSports.net has you covered and smothered like Waffle House hash browns for NCAA College Football along with the National Football League:
Daily Stat/Sheets. For the handicapper who wants to dig into the stats, there's nothing that compares to the wealth of both Match-up and Situational Power Trends and Betting Systems offered by the Stat/Sheets.
StatSystems Sports Bi-Weekly Newsletter Report. Only the very best trends from our Huge Library of Power Trends stored in our database along with expert write-ups for each match-up from our Expert Staff of Handicappers, delivered straight to your inbox every Wednesday and Saturday.
Best Bets. The top plays from our handicappers every week, with detailed matchup information and wagering advice. Note: Best Bets subscriptions include The Bi-Weekly Newsletter Report at no additional cost!
Get the BEST BANG FOR YOUR BUCK
"Get a monthly package now - you'll be real glad you did!”
______________________________________________
#417 NY JETS @ #418 CINCINNATI
Line: Bengals -3.5, Total: 41.5
Quarterback is the big story surrounding the New York Jets but cornerback may be the most important one as Rex Ryan's club gets ready for preseason game No. 2 (7:00 PM EST) in Cincinnati. The Jets lost a pair of corners this week, starter Dee Milliner to a high left ankle sprain and rookie Dexter McDougle to a torn ACL. It's likely Milliner will not be ready for the regular-season opener while McDougle, a third-round pick out of Maryland, was lost for the season.
As for the quarterback quandary in New York, not much changed in last Thursday's preseason unveiling. In a 13-10 win over Indianapolis, Geno Smith started and went 4-of-6 for 33 yards and added a 10-yard run. "We did well as an offense," the second-year pro said. "We put points up on the board, had two drives, got a field goal and, like I said, we won the game." Conversely veteran Michael Vick finished 3-of-6 for 17 yards and led the Jets to their lone TD drive in the second quarter by flashing his legendary running skills with 19 yards on the ground on three totes.
"It felt good to be back out there, (play in) live-game action (and) have a chance to get out there (and) go against a different defense," Vick said. "It was great. To have a 14-play drive, it only builds your confidence. Hopefully we can continue to build and move forward." Coach Rex Ryan lauded both of his options. "I thought Geno played extremely well," Ryan said. "He had a few throw-aways. I thought he did a great job stepping up in the pocket a few times and protecting the ball. I was really pleased with (both) Geno and Mike."
A matured Vick proved to be a leader in Philadelphia even when things weren't going his way and that has continued with the Jets. Earlier this week Vick praised his competition while downplaying his own exploits. "I think Geno did well," Vick said. "He did good enough for coach to pull him out after two good series. Moved the ball down field, got a field goal, got three points and anytime you score some points, it's always a good thing. I think when we go back and watch the film, all the mistakes he made are correctable and I think, at the end of the day, Geno did a good job.
"I did alright. (It) could've been better. I wanted to get some throws down the field, but unfortunately that didn't happen. So, we'll see what happens next week (against Cincinnati). There's always next week." Whether it's ultimately Smith or Vick at quarterback, one thing is certain, the Jets significantly upgraded the skill-position talent around the prospective signal caller by bringing in former Denver wide receiver Eric Decker and ex-Titans running back Chris Johnson. Johnson ran for a one-yard score and had two receptions for 16 yards against the Colts while Decker caught two passes for 12 yards in the victory.
"You see why we're so high on them," Ryan said. "Decker presents that big target, but the thing I like most about him is that he's a team guy. He's competitive. He blocks. He's starting to dig out those safeties... As far as Chris Johnson, I'm glad we don't have to defend him. He still has great speed. He made a few plays and got hit a couple of times, but he popped up and had a big smile on his face, so he's ready to roll." And the quarterbacks? "We'll just let this thing play out," Ryan said. "Obviously, we know we have two excellent quarterbacks. There's no question about it. We have two quarterbacks who we hope will be great."
The reigning AFC North champion Bengals, meanwhile, were very sloppy in their preseason opener, allowing the Chiefs to score on all three phases -- offense, defense and special teams, en route to a 41-39 loss in Kansas City. Fresh off his new six-year, $96 million deal, Andy Dalton went 3-of-5 for 71 yards for Cincinnati, while A.J. Green caught two of his three completions for 62 yards, including a 53-yard reception. Dane Sanzenbacher added two receptions for 46 yards and a score, while backup signal caller Jason Campbell was 6-of-15 for 72 yards with a pair of TD passes and interceptions in defeat.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 20 times, while the favorite covered the spread 16 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 22 times, while the underdog won straight up 16 times. 12 games went under the total, while 6 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 42 times, while the favorite covered first half line 39 times. *No EDGE. 16 games went over first half total, while 9 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game.
(32-8 since 1993.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.9, Opponent 11.3 (Total first half points scored = 24.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
________________________________________________
#419 BUFFALO @ #420 PITTSBURGH
Line: Steelers -1.5, Total: 40
As rumors continue to swirl about the future of the Buffalo Bills off the field, Doug Marrone is trying to get his team ready for the 2014 season on it. That process continues in the Steel City (7:30 PM EST) on Saturday evening when the Bills visit the Pittsburgh Steelers for preseason action. Buffalo evened its exhibition record at 1-1 last week with a hard-fought 20-18 victory in Charlotte over the Panthers as Jeff Tuel's touchdown pass with six minutes left in the fourth quarter proved to be the difference.
Tuel, who is competing for the Bills' backup job with Thad Lewis, finished 4- for-5 for 24 yards with an interception and connected with Chris Summers from a yard out to make it a 20-12 game in the final stanza. Carolina clawed back as Joe Webb's 31-yard touchdown pass to Brandon Williams with 1:43 to play got the Panthers within two points, 20-18, but Webb's pass on a two-point conversion fell incomplete as the Bills held on. Buffalo's starting QB, E.J. Manuel, went 9-for-13 for 96 yards in the team's first three drives. The second-year quarterback completed his first seven pass attempts before throwing an incompletion.
The Steelers, meanwhile, came up empty in their first exhibition game, falling to the New York Giants 20-16 thanks to Curtis Painter's 3-yard touchdown pass to Corey Washington late in the fourth quarter. Ben Roethlisberger played the first drive for Pittsburgh and went 1-for-2, connecting with Dri Archer on a 46-yard pass to help set up Shaun Suisham's 26-yard field goal less than five minutes in.
The Steelers lead their preseason series with Buffalo by a substantial 7-2 margin.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 23 times, while the favorite covered the spread 13 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 21 times, while the underdog won straight up 18 times. 19 games went under the total, while 10 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 40 times, while the favorite covered first half line 34 times. *No EDGE. 24 games went under first half total, while 20 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (PITTSBURGH) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.
(31-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.5, Opponent 10.4 (Total first half points scored = 22.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (52-21).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (102-61).
_________________________________________________
How Was Your Football Season Last Year?
If you didn’t go 25-6 during August and September (80.6%), you weren’t with us here at StatSystems Sports! That was our win-loss record the first two months of the season with our Huge *5-Star Selections.
And aside from winning a documented $2,980 in net profits last season, we were also a "Spot-Less" 4-0 with our Highly-Rated *6-Star College releases throughout the regular season! Best of all, when you join StatSystemsSports.net this football season in August – in time for the NFL regular season – you will not only save $300 on the spot but also receive the #1 Rated Sports Betting Publication in the Country Today! Our Weekly NFL & NCAA College Football Newsletter Report FREE!
"Remember, don't make a move without it, You'll be glad you did" Stan!
___________________________________________________
#421 MIAMI @ #422 TAMPA BAY
Line: Buccaneers -2, Total: 37.5
South Florida clashes with the central part of the Sunshine State when the Miami Dolphins make the short trip up I-75 to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Each club is looking for its first preseason win after dropping games last week. Miami fell in Atlanta when Falcons kicker Sergio Castillo booted a pair of second-half field goals to provide the winning margin in Atlanta's 16-10 preseason victory over the Dolphins at the Georgia Dome.
Ryan Tannehill excelled on his lone drive for Miami, hitting on all six of his throws for 62 yards on a drive the quarterback culminated with a 6-yard touchdown strike to Brandon Gibson. The Dolphins marched down to the Atlanta 4-yard line with under three minutes to play, but quarterback Seth Lobato mishandled a center exchange and the Falcons' Nosa Eguae pounced on the fumble to kill the scoring opportunity.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, lost in Jacksonville after Denard Robinson's touchdown run in the fourth quarter lifted the Jaguars to a 16-10 in Tampa Bay's first game under new head coach Lovie Smith, who was hired in the offseason to replace the unpopular Greg Schiano. Free agent signing Josh McCown, who played under Smith in Chicago, went 2- for-4 for 20 yards and an interception while starting under center in his Bucs debut. Backup Mike Glennon got the majority of the playing time, hitting on 11-for-19 passes for 140 yards and a score.
Miami holds a 16-12 preseason series advantage against Tampa Bay but the Buccaneers defeated the Dolphins, 17-16, in Miami last August.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 13 times, while the favorite covered the spread 5 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 9 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 25 games went under the total, while 2 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 23 times, while the favorite covered first half line 12 times. *No EDGE. 22 games went under first half total, while 15 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (MIAMI) - after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(61-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.2%, +41.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.4, Opponent 11.4 (Total first half points scored = 23.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (35-8).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (114-55).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (227-135).
__________________________________________________
#423 ATLANTA @ #424 HOUSTON
Line: Texans -3, Total: 40
A pair of teams that suffered the ignominious trip from the penthouse to the outhouse last year continue preparations for the 2014 season when the Atlanta Falcons pay a visit to the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. The Falcons, who are looking to rectify a dismal 4-12 record from a season ago, came away as the 16-10 victor in their preseason opener with Miami but their much-maligned defense stumbled against the Dolphins' starters.
Sergio Castillo kicked a pair of second-half field goals to provide the winning margin for the Falcons at the Georgia Dome, capping a 13-play, 76-yard drive with a 21-yard boot that snapped a 10-10 deadlock late in the third quarter. He then added a 34-yard field goal on the Falcons' next possession, a kick set up by Sean Renfree's 57-yard pass to rookie running back Devonta Freeman. The Dolphins marched down to the Atlanta 4-yard line with under three minutes to play, but quarterback Seth Lobato mishandled a center exchange and the Falcons' Nosa Eguae pounced on the fumble to kill the scoring opportunity.
Matt Ryan played just one series for Atlanta but was flawless, going 7-for-7 for 53 yards on a 15-play sequence that ended in a Jacquizz Rodgers 2-yard run that tied the game at 7-7 near the end of the opening quarter. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill also excelled on his lone drive for Miami, however, hitting on all six of his throws for 62 yards on a jaunt the quarterback culminated with a 6-yard touchdown strike to Brandon Gibson.
The Texans, meanwhile, picked up right where they left off from their disastrous 2-14 campaign from a year ago, getting whitewashed by Arizona, 32-0, in their preseason opener. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was signed as a free agent in the offseason and is expected to be the starter when the regular season begins, had an inauspicious debut as he went just 6-for-14 for 55 yards and was picked off twice in Bill O'Brien's debut as the team's head coach. Top overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, who had sports hernia surgery in June, saw limited play and had one tackle in his first professional action.
The Falcons and Texans have never met in the preseason, but have played three times during the regular season. Houston holds a 2-1 advantage over Atlanta in the all-time series, including a 17-10 win at NRG Stadium in 2011.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 13 times, while the underdog covered the spread 11 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 18 times, while the underdog won straight up 6 times. 15 games went over the total, while 14 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 27 times, while the underdog covered first half line 24 times. *No EDGE. 30 games went over first half total, while 16 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (HOUSTON) - in non-conference games, after being outgained by opponent by 100 or more total yards last game, against opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
(37-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +27.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 19.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.2, Opponent 11.2 (Total first half points scored = 24.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (66-29).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (127-73).
_________________________________________________
#425 ARIZONA @ #426 MINNESOTA
Line: Viking -3, Total: 38
The Minnesota Vikings will try to make it two wins in two weeks at their new temporary home when they entertain the Arizona Cardinals at TCF Bank Stadium. The Vikings opened up a new era under head coach Mike Zimmer by flashing a much-improved defense in a 10-6 win over the Oakland Raiders. Rookie first-round pick Teddy Bridgewater finished 6-of-13 passing for 49 yards in his NFL preseason debut but paled in comparison to veteran starter Matt Cassel, who finished 5-of-6 for 62 yards.
Second-year receiving star Cordarrelle Patterson caught three passes for 38 yards for Minnesota, which went just 5-10-1 a year ago. The rookie Bridgewater, who was selected with the last pick of the first round back in May, did see reps with the starters, taking over for Cassel after the Southern Cal product had led the Vikings to their lone touchdown drive on his only series of the game.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, opened up the 2014 campaign - their second under coach Bruce Arians - with a 32-0 whitewash of the Houston Texans at University of Phoenix Stadium last week. The win came exactly one year a after the Cards shut out the Packers in the 2013 preseason opener, the NFL's last preseason shutout. The story of the game was the strong showing by the Cards QB trio of Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton and rookie Logan Thomas, who combined to post a 138.8 passer rating.
Thomas, a rookie making his NFL debut, completed 11-of-12 passed for 113 yards and a TD as Arizona outgained Houston 407 yards to 172 and held a 42 to 18 advantage in time of possession. The Cardinals' trip to Minnesota represents a homecoming for star receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, who hail from Minneapolis and St. Paul respectively. Fitzgerald, in fact, was a Vikings ball boy in his youth.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 14 times, while the favorite covered the spread 4 times. *EDGE against the spread =ARIZONA. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 10 times, while the underdog won straight up 9 times. 27 games went under the total, while 21 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 26 times, while the favorite covered first half line 15 times. *No EDGE. 40 games went over first half total, while 31 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after a win by 10 or more points.
(33-8 since 1993.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (25-16)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.3
The average score in these games was: Team 22.6, Opponent 18.8 (Average point differential = +3.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (37.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-3).
________________________________________________
w-thumbs!^
