STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SATURDAY, JULY 26th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 7/26/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #17
•Soria A Strong Addition To Detroit Bullpen: Dave Dombrowski's latest trade also felt like one of his most predictable. There was simply no way the Detroit general manager was going to sit idly by without addressing his team's bullpen. "We've been working on trying to find someone in the bullpen for an extended period," Dombrowski said. "It's something we've been focused on for a while. For the month of July, at least." The Tigers added one of the game's better relievers in a trade earlier this week, acquiring Joakim Soria from Texas, but that may only be the beginning of a significant overhaul in the way Detroit approaches the late innings.
Manager Brad Ausmus stuck with his usual routine in Thursday night's win over the Los Angeles Angels, using Joba Chamberlain in the eighth and Joe Nathan in the ninth. But with Soria in the fold, Ausmus now has more options. Detroit's bullpen woes are nothing new. The Tigers finally gave up on Jose Valverde as their closer last year, letting Joaquin Benoit handle that role instead. Benoit pitched well, but the grand slam he allowed to Boston's David Ortiz was perhaps the defining moment of baseball's entire postseason in 2013.
Benoit left via free agency, and Detroit signed Nathan, who was coming off a sparkling season with the Rangers. The 39-year-old right-hander has slipped badly this year. Even after striking out the side to close out a 6-4 win Thursday, his ERA was an unsightly 5.73. Nathan has shown mild signs of improvement, posting a 3.68 ERA in his last 15 appearances, striking out 21 in 14 2-3 innings in that span. But statistically, Soria has been better this year than any of Detroit's current relievers - and the Tigers gave up a couple promising young arms to get him. Ausmus says he's keeping Nathan and Chamberlain in their usual roles for now - but Soria's presence means the Detroit manager doesn't have to be overly patient with anyone.
•Yanks Put Capuano On Big League Roster: Left-hander Chris Capuano has been put on the New York Yankees' major league roster, a day after he was acquired from the Colorado Rockies. Capuano will start Saturday against Toronto, with Shane Greene pushed back to Sunday. New York designated right-hander Chris Leroux for assignment Friday to clear a roster spot. The 35-year-old Capuano was 1-1 with a 4.55 ERA in 28 relief appearances for Boston, which released him July 1. He had four starts at Triple-A and Double-A for the Rockies. Capuano, a 2006 NL All-Star, pitched with Arizona, Milwaukee, the New York Mets, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston in parts of 10 major league seasons. Earlier this month, the Yankees obtained pitcher Brandon McCarthy from Arizona and third baseman Chase Headley from San Diego.
•Williams Becomes 31st Rangers Pitcher: Veteran right-hander Jerome Williams is the next on the mound for the Texas Rangers. The Rangers purchased Williams' contract from Triple-A Round Rock on Friday to start the opener of a series against American League West-leading Oakland. Williams was set to be the 52nd different player, and 31st pitcher, used by Texas this season. He was signed by the Rangers two weeks after being released by Houston. To make room on the 25-man roster, outfielder Jake Smolinski was put on the disabled list a bone bruise in his left foot. Left-hander Justin Marks was released to clear a 40-man spot. He was on the disabled list at Round Rock.
Williams starts in place of Nick Tepesch, who got an extra day of rest after having to pitch in the Rangers' 14-inning loss at the New York Yankees on Tuesday night. Tepesch starts Saturday against the Athletics. The 32-year-old Williams is 43-51 with a 4.45 ERA in 181 major league games since 2003 for San Francisco, the Chicago Cubs, Washington, Los Angeles Angels and Houston. Williams was released by the Astros earlier month after going 1-4 with a 6.04 ERA in 26 relief appearances. He was 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in two starts at Round Rock. Smolinski was hitting .389 with three doubles and five RBIs in 11 games since getting called up from Round Rock on July 7. He had started 10 games in a row before fouling a pitch off the inside of his foot in a game Monday night at the New York Yankees.
•Uggla Joins Giants: The San Francisco Giants didn't waste much time calling up Dan Uggla. After signing the former Atlanta Braves second baseman to a minor league contract this week, Uggla was summoned from Triple-A Fresno to San Francisco on Friday along with utility infielder Tony Abreu. The Giants placed Marco Scutaro and Ehire Adrianza on the 15-day disabled list with back and hamstring injuries and designated infielder Nick Noonan and pitcher Jose De Paula for assignment.
A rash of injuries prompted the Giants to make the move with Uggla. They had planned to give him an extended look in the minors but instead was batting seventh in the Giants' order Friday night against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In two Triple-A games with Fresno, Uggla was 2-for-7 with a double and two walks. Before the Braves released the 34-year-old Uggla, he played in 48 games this season and batted .161 with two home runs. He also struggled last year, hitting .179 with 22 homers in 136 games.
Twins To Bring Up Darnell To Start Saturday: The Minnesota Twins plan to bring up left-hander Logan Darnell from Triple-A Rochester to start Saturday against the Chicago White Sox in place of ailing Kyle Gibson. Gibson played long toss from 120 feet and threw in the bullpen Friday. He'll try to start Tuesday in Kansas City. The right-hander originally was scheduled to pitch Wednesday against Cleveland but was scratched the day before due to lower back stiffness. Gibson is 8-8 with a 4.19 ERA in 19 starts.
Darnell, who was 5-5 with a 3.43 ERA for Rochester, will be making his first major league start. A corresponding roster move will be made after Friday's game. Gibson isn't the only Twins pitcher dealing with an injury. Phil Hughes left Thursday's start after taking a line drive off his shin. He felt better Friday and expects to make his next start. Kohl Stewart, the No. 4 overall pick in last year's draft, went on the seven-day disabled list Friday at Class A Cedar Rapids with a sore shoulder, but general manager Terry Ryan said he didn't think it was too serious.
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Betting Notes - Saturday
National League
•Cardinals-Cubs - 4:05 PM
--Cardinals lost last five Miller starts (0-3, 7.40).
--Arrieta is 4-1, 1.64 in his last eight starts.
--St Louis lost its last four games.
--Cubs lost seven of their last nine games.
--Nine of last eleven games at Wrigley Field went over total.
•Nationals-Reds - 4:05 PM
--Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in four starts against the Reds.
--Cueto is 5-3 with a 4.58 ERA in nine starts against Washington.
--Washington won seven of its last nine games.
--Reds lost their last seven games.
--Six of last seven Washington road games went over the total.
•Diamondbacks-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Collmenter is 3-1, 2.67 in his last five starts.
--Lee is 1-3, 6.31 in his last four starts.
--Arizona lost eight of its last eleven road games.
--Phillies lost seven of their last ten games.
--Nine of last eleven Collmenter starts stayed under the total.
•Padres-Braves - 7:10 PM
--Despaigne is 2-1, 1.31 ERA and is coming off the best start of his young career Sunday.
--Teheran owns a 3-1 mark and 1.23 ERA in 10 starts this season at home.
--San Diego won five of its last six games.
--Braves lost four of their last five games.
--Under is 13-4-1 in last eighteen San Diego road games.
•Mets-Brewers - 7:10 PM
--Niese is 2-2, 5.92 in his last five starts.
--Peralta is 7-1, 5.89 in his last ten starts.
--Mets lost 10 of their last 15 road games.
--Milwaukee won five of its last six home games.
--Five of Mets' last six road games stayed under.
•Pirates-Rockies - 8:10 PM
--Locke is 2-0, 3.06 in his last seven starts.
--Colorado lost last seven Matzek starts (0-4, 5.31).
--Pittsburgh won five of its last seven games.
--Rockies lost seven of their last nine games.
--Five of last seven Pittsburgh road games went over.
•Dodgers-Giants - 9:05 PM
--Kershaw is 8-0, 1.06 in his last nine starts.
--Vogelsong is 0-4, 3.90 in his last five starts.
--Dodgers lost six of their last nine road games.
--Giants won six of their last nine games overall.
--Six of last nine Dodger games stayed under total.
American League
•Blue Jays-Yankees - 1:05 PM
--Hutchison is 1-5, 6.97 in his last six starts.
--Capuano is pitching for third team this season (1-1, 4.55 in 28 relief stints); he is 74-84 in his career, in 209 starts, all in the NL.
--Blue Jays won five of last seven games, but are 3-14 in last 17 road games.
--New York won eight of its last ten games.
--Under is 11-3-2 in last sixteen Yankees home games.
•Orioles-Mariners - 4:10 PM
--Norris is 5-1, 3.57 in his last six starts.
--Young is 0-2, 3.79 in his last three starts.
--Orioles won 12 of their last 17 road games.
--Seattle lost six of its last nine games.
--13 of last 15 Seattle home games stayed under.
•Red Sox-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Lackey is 2-0, 2.08 in his last couple starts.
--Hellickson allowed one run in 4.1 IP (84 PT) in his first '14 start.
--Red Sox lost their last four games.
--Tampa Bay won its last eight games.
--Seven of last nine Boston road games went over total.
•Indians-Royals - 7:10 PM
--McAllister is 1-5, 7.75 in his last eight starts.
--Guthrie is 0-3, 8.66 in his last four starts.
--Cleveland lost five of its last six games.
--Kansas City won its last four games.
--Five of last seven Indian games stayed under total.
•White Sox-Twins - 7:10 PM
--Sale is 4-0, 2.11 in his last six starts.
--Darnell is making first MLB start; he is 5-5, 3.43 in 17 AAA starts this year- he's thrown three scoreless innings in the majors.
--White Sox won three of their last four road games.
--Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.
--12 of last 17 White Sox games stayed under.
•Athletics-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Gray is 4-0, 1.59 in his last four starts.
--Tepesch is 0-2, 7.71 in his last three starts.
--Oakland lost seven of its last nine road games.
--Rangers lost 28 of their last 35 games overall.
--Six of last nine A's games went over the total.
•Tigers-Angels - 9:05 PM
--Verlander is 3-1, 5.04 in his last four starts.
--Shoemaker is 1-2, 8.04 in his last three starts.
--Detroit won four of its last six games.
--Angels won nine of their last fourteen games.
--Eight of last eleven Angel games stayed under total.
Interleague
•Marlins-Astros - 7:10 PM
--Koehler is winless in his last three starts, but has surrendered only four runs over 13 innings.
--Cosart (9-6, 4.23) is 5-1 in his last seven starts.
--Miami won four of its last five games.
--Astros lost five of last six home games.
--Over is 13-7 in last 20 Houston games.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Miller 8-11; Arrieta 9-5
-- Gonzalez 10-5; Cueto 12-9
-- Collmenter 11-6; Lee 15-6
-- Despaigne 3-2; Teheran 13-8
-- Niese 10-8; Peralta 11-8
-- Locke 6-3; Matzek 1-7
-- Kershaw 12-3; Vogelsong 11-9
-- Hutchison 9-11; Capuano 0-0
-- Norris 10-6; Young 10-8
-- Lackey 12-8; Hellickson 1-0
-- McAllister 6-6; Guthrie 10-10
-- Sele 10-5; Darnell 0-0
-- Gray 14-6; Tepesch 4-7
-- Verlander 12-8; Shoemaker 7-3
-- Koehler 9-11; Cosart 11-8
•Umpires Trends
-- StL-Chi-- Three of last four Wegner games stayed under.
-- Wsh-Cin-- 11 of last 14 Nelson games stayed under total.
-- Az-Phil-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Wolcott games.
-- SD-Atl-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Nauert games.
-- NY-Mil-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Ripperger games.
-- Pitt-Col-- Five of last six Cooper games stayed under.
-- LA-SF-- Five of last seven Hamari games went over.
-- Tor-NY-- Under is 13-4-1 in last eighteen Porter games.
-- Blt-Sea-- Underdogs won six of last nine Culbreth games.
-- Bos-TB-- Five of last seven Fairchild games stayed under.
-- Cle-KC-- Five of last six Meals games went over total.
-- Chi-Minn-- Favorites won last four Gorman games.
-- A's-Tex-- Four of last five Reyburn games went over.
-- Det-LAA-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Blaser games.
-- Mia-Hst-- Seven of last ten Hoberg games went over.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Dodgers Ace Clayton Kershaw is a spotless 11-0 against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The two-time Cy Young winner owns baseball's lowest ERA and is 8-0 with a 1.06 mark and 88 strikeouts in 68 innings over his last nine outings.
Another victory would give the left-hander the longest winning streak for Los Angeles since Kevin Brown won nine straight decisions over a 10-game stretch from April 29-June 17, 2003. Kershaw, though, didn't perform up to his lofty standards while not figuring in the decision of a 4-3 win at St. Louis on Sunday. He battled through 109 pitches in seven innings, allowing three runs with eight strikeouts.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
•MINNESOTA is 6-26 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus an American League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 3.3, OPPONENT 6.2.
•LA ANGELS are 14-2 OVER (+12.2 Units) versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 6.1, OPPONENT 5.9.
•BALTIMORE is 17-3 (+14.8 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.5, OPPONENT 3.3.
•RYAN VOGELSONG is 18-5 (+15.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.7, OPPONENT 3.1.
•CHRIS YOUNG is 12-2 UNDER (+10.2 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season.
The average score was YOUNG 2.9, OPPONENT 2.7.
•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 9-23 (-15.8 Units) against the run line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.1, OPPONENT 4.2.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor on base percentage (<=.320) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start.
(35-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +32.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +142.3
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-12, +24.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (54-48, +27.3 units).
•Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (National League), with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 5 starts.
(65-26 since 1997.) (71.4%, +41.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (56-35)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.3, money line price: +104
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +1.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 51 (56% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-4, -1.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-6, -0.1 units).
•Play Over - Home teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (NY YANKEES) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games.
(53-22 since 1997.) (70.7%, +29.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-107.7
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 5.5 (Total runs scored = 10.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 44 (59.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-6, -1.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-13, +5.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-16, +17.8 units).
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w-thumbs!^
