SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
San Francisco @ MIAMI
San Francisco -109 over MIAMI
(Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Giants took the opener last night 9-1 and they just might have another easy time of it here against one of the most overvalued starters in the game. Henderson Alvarez’s first half was profitable (6-4 – 2.63 ERA) but don't confuse it with skill, as his ridiculously high 82% strand rate is unsustainable and once it normalizes his ERA will suffer badly. Alvarez has also relied on pinpoint control to survive with just 22 walks in 120 innings. However, his 60% first-pitch strike is no better than MLB-average so his control is likely to erode. When that happens, he'll struggle to hold onto a sub-4.00 ERA. Alvarez cannot seem to turn his 93 mph fastball into strikeouts and without more K’s (or luck), don't expect his second half to match his first half. Henderson Alvarez is nothing more than an average pitcher and one should take this analysis very seriously because his surface stats are a complete mirage.
All Tim Hudson does is induces groundballs at a high rate (57%) and he rarely walks a batter. In 119 frames, Hudson has walked just 19 batters. His 78 K’s is of no concern either, as this savvy vet has traded in K’s for groundouts. Hudson comes in with a skills supported 2.67 ERA after 18 starts. He gives the Giants a chance every time he takes the mound. Hudson is stable, smart and studies hitters like nobody else in an attempt to find their weakest points. That figures to bode well here against a Marlins team that is pressing at the plate, as Miami has lost five in a row and has scored just nine times over that span.
Kansas City @ BOSTON
BOSTON -108 over Kansas City
(Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)
Danny Duffy has posted a nifty 2.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 88 IP during the last 12 months. Given his mid-90s fastball and pre-TJS upside, those marks would seem to be confirmation that he has a decent shot every time he takes the mound. We say uh-uh. Few starters have been more fortunate than Duffy over that period. A 24% hit rate, 81% strand rate and 3% hr/f all have driven those results. His base skills have been poor with a K/BB split per nine of 6/4 and an alarmingly low 32% groundball rate. Over the next 12 months, Duffy will not maintain his low ERA. Dude is getting way too much credit and will be exposed soon enough.
The Red Sox had a horrible first half because of an offense that failed to produce but they are on the brink of a strong second half. Boston has won five of six and opened the second half with a nice come from behind win yesterday. The Red Sox have scored 35 times over their last six games and they’re suddenly feeling a lot better. Rubby de la Rosa has experienced a long road back after TJ surgery in 2011. With a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, a strong changeup, and an ability to induce groundballs at a solid rate, he has the tools to make a splash. The good news about De La Rosa was his incredible first start on May 31 - 7 IP, 4 H, 8 K, 0 BB, 0 R. He was also dominating at Triple-A and he dominated the A’s back on June 21 with four hits and one run over seven complete. De La Rosa is 2-0 at Fenway with an ERA of 1.42. Over 37 innings, he has a solid BB/K split of 8/37 and those punch outs are supported by a strong 11% swing and miss rate. De La Rosa has an xERA of 3.11 and he’s a pitcher on the rise worth backing at a cheap price at home.
Texas @ TORONTO
Texas +160 over TORONTO
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)
1:05 PM EST. Indeed the Blue Jays have an edge on the hill today with rookie Marcus Stroman going up against Colby Lewis but right now Toronto can’t be favored by this much over anyone. The Blue Jays scored one run last night. They have scored four runs over their past three games, all losses. The Jays have just four wins over their past 16 games and have scored three runs or less in 11 of those losses. Marcus Stroman has been tough since he’s been inserted into the rotation but he’s also coming off a rough outing against the Angels and his BAA of .260 is not exactly setting the baseball world on fire. Stroman is good and he has lots of upside but he's not ready to be in this price range yet.
The Rangers aren’t winning many games lately either but they’re not the heavily favored team here. A win to start the second half is a good start. It may also surprise you to learn that Texas is fifth in the majors with a BA on the road of .266. Texas is receiving a big tag today because Colby Lewis has been awful and is coming off the worst outing of his career—11 earned runs and 13 hits allowed in 2.2 IP against the Angels. Overall, Lewis is 6-6 with a 6.54 ERA, which makes him a big-time, buy-low candidate. Masked by some awful surface stats, Lewis is not close to being as bad as his numbers suggest. Over his last four starts, he has struck out 22 batters over 21 innings without issuing a single walk. Overall, Lewis has 73 K’s in 84 innings and also has a good history against Toronto current batters with a BAA of .239. Lewis has been one of the unluckiest profiles in the majors (65% strand rate and 39% hit rate) but he’s 5-1 on the road and he doesn’t have to be great to tame this struggling lineup. Overlay.
