STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SATURDAY, JULY 12th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 7/12/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #15
It is time to once again take a trip around the weekday Major League Baseball Bases from Point Blank range, StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst William Stillman has isolated key issues that can be of major advantage to your bankroll in the days ahead.
•Mariners – (Fernando) Rodney’s “No Respect”
Reading the countless words written about players that were “snubbed” for the All Star game provides annual amusement, as well as some insight into market perceptions. So often many in the sports mediaverse get it wrong – it is meant to be an All Star Game, and not the “Mid-Season Inter-League exhibition between players who have performed the best over the last three months”. As such, there is rarely sympathy with players who have had a great run through the first half of any season, but were not chosen – that is not what the game should be about. Jack Armstrong was the starting pitcher for the National League in 1990, off of an 11-3/2.28 opening stretch. For the rest of his short career it was a 22-46/5.06.
But what happens when a guy gets such little respect that he not only misses out based on the first half of this season, but on the past 2+ campaigns? And is also so far off the radar screens that even those writing about snubs don’t even mention him? There is indeed a Dangerfield-esque aspect to the perceptions of Fernando Rodney right now.
First a confession – analyzing Rodney has never been a favorite past-time, because of the lack of consistency earlier in his career. Perhaps that has numbed others as well. Despite being handed the ball a lot based on his promise and raw stuff, in seven of his first nine seasons he finished with an ERA above league average. Along the way were plenty of high pitch counts due to a lack of control – there are 259 pitchers that have thrown at least 600 IP since he came up in 2002, and his 4.4 BB-per-9 rates #246. But the Tigers gambled and made him the full-time closer in 2009, and it was a tight-rope walk for the ages – he converted a sparkling 37 of 38 saves, despite a 4.40 ERA and a 4.9 BB-per-9, likely accelerating Jim Leyland’s retirement by a couple of years in the process. That led to a nice contract with the Angels, who apparently only saw the saves, and not the sausage-grinding manner in which they came, and it was a dismal failure – over two seasons for them Rodney only converted 17 of 28 save opportunities, with a frightening 63 BB over 100 IP.
Enter the next stage. He was off to Tampa for 2012, and at a time when many would have considered him finished, it was another season for the ages - 48 of 50 saves came home, at a 0.60 allowance. The latter is something we are not likely to see again, with a .220 BABIP and an 89.4 percent LOB% being the sort of thing a pitcher dreams about. But he followed that up with a solid 2013, even with corrections from the Baseball dice, a 3.38 that saw him nail down 37 of 45 saves. That was enough for Seattle to offer $14 million over two years; easy for Rodney to accept.
His opening to the season was more of the same-old/same-old, with plenty of drama – nine of his first 17 games had a PPI of 18.0 or more. But it was that 17th game that has proven to be a turning point. Facing the Rays for the first time since leaving for the Pacific Northwest, he imploded in the 9th, turning what had been a nifty shutout by Hisashi Iwakuma into a 2-1 loss. He retired only two of the seven batters he faced, was tagged for a HR by David DeJesus, and needed Danny Farquhar to come on and leave the bases loaded.
Naturally there were rumblings in Seattle – that loss triggered an 0-4 Mariner slide, and questions arose about whether the investment had been a good one. Rodney did not even take a mound again until five days later. But that time off triggered something. Since then he has worked to a 0.95 tune, converting 15 of 15 saves, with nearly twice as many K (19) as hits (10). Plus an unexpected caveat - he has issued one BB to the last 69 batters he has faced, Jarrod Dyson in the bottom of the 9th in Kansas City back on June 21. Allow that to sink in – Rodney has allowed one BB over a span of 69 batters.
Could even the savviest followers of the sport ever have envisioned him walking one batter over more than a full calendar month? Despite having already turned 37, there is plenty of life left in his arm, but now there is a confidence and swagger in attacking the strike zone to add to it. Since the start of the 2012 season it has been a 1.93 allowance, converting 111 of 123 save opportunities, one of the best stretches for a closer in MLB history. Yet Rodney gets to take a few days off next week, and that rest might be a plus going forward. The Seattle offense is not going to provide many margins, so he is a huge piece to the puzzle if the Mariners are going to gut out enough close games to stay in the pennant race.
•Cardinals – Life Without Yadier Molina
Molina is simply very, very good. But we may not see him again in 2014. So now it will be time to see if the markets grasp his true value, both in terms of individual game pricing, and the Cardinals in future books.
How good is Molina? He has consistently been the best defensive catcher in the sport, with six consecutive Gold Glove awards. But over time he has become an offensive force as well, and the best way to put that into perspective are his numbers at the plate, compared to the Major League Baseball standard for catchers, over the past four seasons -
2011 - .305/.349/.465 MLB .245/.314/.390
2012 - .315/.373/.465 MLB .247/.319/.399
2013 - .319/.359/.477 MLB .245/.310/.388
2014 - .287/.341/.409 MLB .249/.314/.385
Those are most significant production gaps, and it is similar when the defensive measures of the positions are brought into play (there have been 181 steals against the Cardinals since 2011, less than half of the average of 365.1 for the other 29 teams). Yet he may have been even better than that, with the metrics for catchers not fully evolved to properly measure the handling of pitchers. Since 2011, the Cardinals are #6 in ERA, #2 in FIP and #4 in xFIP, and it is not because their pitchers are really at that level. If anything, with so much inconsistency behind Adam Wainwright in the current rotation, that part of Molina’s game could really show.
Now it falls to Tony Cruz, who has shown little when given the chance (.236/.280/.323 over 394 PA’s). Cruz does not bring much power (two HR), and you should be watching extra closely in his first games to see how much opponents attempt to take advantage on the bases (Andrew McCutchen stole on the 3rd pitch after a first inning single last night, and grabbed another in the 3rd). Meanwhile the control issues of Shelby Miller (4 BB vs. 1 K throwing to Cruz on Thursday) and perhaps Joe Kelly (more BB than K in three AAA rehab starts), will also bear watching. The Cardinals could genuinely struggle to get to the finish line this season.
•Giants – Without An Angel (Pagan) In The Outfield
And off of the Molina take there is a good transition to this one. The rule of thumb for injuries is simple, but often missed – it is the gap between the value of the player that was lost, and those that are replacing him, and it is in measuring the latter that the markets often come up short. Like in the Pagan instance - who knew that it would play such a big part in the National League West race?
Pagan has been quietly effective since coming to San Francisco. He turned in a .288/.338/.440, with plus defense, in 2012, when the league standard for CF was .264/.328/.414. The consistency carried over to a .282/.334/.414 in 2013, vs. a league .258/.324/.395. But there was an issue – he missed 84 games because of a hamstring injury. The Giants went 32-52 without him, but that got lost in the storylines of several other disappointments. Perhaps also because while Pagan is a player that does just about everything well, he does not set off the kind of fireworks in any particular category to generate attention.
To begin this season a healthy Pagan was flashing All Star potential - .307/.356/.411 through 63 games. But the injury bug struck again, placing him on the DL on June 15. Once again the impact was dramatic – San Francisco has turned in a dismal 7-16, without him, and a prime culprit has been a CF position contributing a minuscule .212/.277/.300, with 23 K vs. only 10 BB. The Giants hope to have Pagan back by the end of July. At 39-67 without him the L2 seasons, it cannot happen soon enough.
•Brewers – Towards Understanding Kyle Lohse
Lohse got tagged with a loss on Wednesday night, something that has been rather rare in recent years. So in response to a query from a reader, it is proper timing to play “One of these things is not like the other”. Try this at a cocktail party. Since the start of the 2011 season, the Major League Baseball leaders in W/L percentage are:
Max Scherzer 63-22 (.741)
Zack Greinke 57-20 (.740)
Clayton Kershaw 62-25 (.713)
Jered Weaver 58-27 (.682)
Pitcher X 50-25 (.667)
Give your friends five guesses at the identity of Pitcher X, and if you offer them even money you have by far the best of it. Not many will realize that it is Lohse, and much of that is for good reason. He would not seem at all to be in the company of those four above him, and some of the standard numbers indeed back that up. There are 156 pitchers that have worked at least 300 IP over that span, and his FIP of 3.72 checks in at #50, while the xFIP of 3.96 is #81. You can’t get to 50-25 from there, according to Baseball logic, although his 3.20 ERA at least brings him in at #19.
So when a reader wondered how Lohse kept winning, it became time to break it down. The answer is that he has become the Catfish Hunter of his generation.
The usual standard is that a Major League pitcher needs either strikeouts, ground-balls, or excellent control in order to survive, usually requiring two of the three in order to be good. But there can be the rarity of a pitcher than genuinely succeeds through fly-balls, and Jered Weaver and Chris Young have already been talked about this season in that regard. What Lohse has done in re-inventing his career is become Hunter, a guy that rarely blew the ball past hitters, but worked high corners of the strike zone to get plenty of fly-ball outs to the power alleys (he even managed to go 21-5/3.34 in 1973 despite allowing 39 HR, a truly nifty dance). The modern metrics struggle with that style – Hunter had a stretch in which his ERA was below FIP in 11 of 12 seasons. He won consistently, but his model is rare.
That is where Lohse is right now. And “right now” is important. He appeared to be near the end of the line several years ago, off of a 6-10/4.74 in 2009 and 4-8/6.55 in 2010. But while injuries impacted his performances in those seasons, they also brought the silver lining of saving some innings from his arm (the Beckett/Lackey sub-category that has been written about here earlier).
Since then he has posted that 50-25, and his ERA has been at least a half run below xFIP in each of those seasons. He wins by throwing strikes (his BB-per-9 since 2011 is #8), and manages to get more fly-ball outs than the metrics want to allow as being healthy. His HR/FB rate has been steadily below average through that span, and that in turn contributes to his BABIP counts of .269, .262, .276 and .266 through the run. Fly-balls find gloves more often than ground-balls do. The downside is that they also can find the seats, but Lohse has had the command to work around that.
How long can he keep it up? If the Brewers make the playoffs, Lohse may be pitching on the night of his 36th birthday (October 4). But even in losing to the Phillies on Wednesday he did not issue a BB of the 31 batters he faced, working to a 13.4 PPI. His other peripherals make him appear as a major over-achiever, but they do not tell the full story. As long as he keeps commanding the strike zone at the current rate, he will continue to perform above market expectations, albeit something less than winning two out of every three decisions.
•Diamondbacks – Wade Miley Hangs Tough
There has been precious little to like from the Diamondbacks so far, a 35-54 in the standings that has looked like a 39-54 on the field. Fundamentals are lacking across the board, and a defense that is last in the NL in both PADE and BABIP allowed has made it most difficult on the pitching staff. Miley has been one of those that has suffered, with his 16-11/3.33 of 2012 and 10-10/3.55 of 2013 falling off to the current 4-6/4.43. But the truth is that he may not have declined at all in terms of the quality of pitches he is throwing, and while there might have been a question of his mental state a week ago, there may have been something from his last start in Atlanta on Sunday that bears watching going forward (no, it was not from the midweek games, but since he does not start again until Saturday it was a good topic to hold back until now).
Miley has been much better than his bottom line. His K-per-9 are up to 8.6, dramatically above the 6.4 standard he had set prior to the season. At 2.6 BB-per-9 he ends up with a K-to-BB ratio that puts him in good company. Combine those K counts with 48.7 percent ground-balls (#27 among qualified pitchers), and there is a formula for success (which xFIP recognizes, at a 3.26 that is #26 of all pitchers this season). There just has not been much. He is only being backed by 3.8 RPG; there is that matter of the awful defense; while a struggling bullpen (14 losses, 12 blown saves) has literally not provided much relief. And it all could have come crashing down against the Braves in his last start.
In the game prior to that, Smiley sported some of his best stuff of the season, carrying a shutout into the bottom of the 9th at Pittsburgh, with only two hits allowed, to go with 10 K and no BB. Kirk Gibson decided to let him go for the shutout (why not, with that bullpen?), but after Neil Walker and Gregory Polanco singled to open the frame, the call went to Addison Reed. Reed set the kindling of those runners ablaze, walking away 11 pitches later to sounds of Pirate fans cheering a 3-2 win.
That bitter defeat made it nine consecutive starts by Miley without a win, despite the fact that he worked to a 4.39 in that span that was not all that bad. And it was the kind of moment that could have sent his confidence spiraling into an abyss. Instead, he rebounded to dominate the Braves, allowing only one run over 6 2/3 IP, with eight K and only one BB. It was a sign of poise at a time when one could have questioned his mettle, and the kind of performance that could lead to some follow-up value over the next cycle. His base stats in the pitching forms, and the decimal Arizona showing in the standings, will not have many getting in line, which is when the savvy handicapper can relish the relative solitude.
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Betting Notes - Saturday
National League
•Braves-Cubs - 4:05 PM
--Minor is 0-1, 6.48 in his last six starts.
--Jackson is 1-4, 6.27 in his last six starts.
--Braves lost five of their last six games.
--Cubs lost six of their last eight games.
--11 of last 14 Atlanta road games stayed under total.
•Diamondbacks-Giants - 4:05 PM
--Miley is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
--Vogelsong is 0-3, 2.95 in his last three starts (Giants scored one run).
--Arizona lost six of its last eight road games.
--Giants lost 15 of their last 20 home games.
--Eleven of last fourteen Arizona games stayed under.
•Cardinals-Brewers - 4:10 PM
--Wainwright is 3-1, 0.79 in his last six starts.
--Brewers' top prospect Nelson blanked Marlins for 5.2 innings (107 PT) in his only MLB start.
--Cardinals won four of their last five games.
--Milwaukee lost ten of its last eleven games.
--Seven of last ten games at Miller Park went over.
•Marlins-Mets - 4:10 PM
--Koehler is 1-2, 5.35 in his last six starts.
--Home team won all eight Matsuzaka starts; he is 2-0, 1.35 at home (4 starts)
--Marlins are 5-9 in their last thirteen games.
--Mets won five of their last six games.
--Seven of last ten New York home games went over.
•Nationals-Phillies - 7:15 PM
--Strasburg is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
--Hamels is 2-2, 2.10 in his last eight starts.
--Washington lost three of its last four games.
--Phillies won their last five games.
--10 of last 15 Washington games went over total.
•Pirates-Reds - 7:15 PM
--Morton is 4-2, 3.00 in his last seven starts.
--Leake is 4-1, 3.21 in his last five starts.
--Pirates lost five of their last six road games.
--Cincinnati won six of its last seven games.
--Four of last five Leake starts went over total; last three Morton starts stayed under the total.
•Padres-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Kennedy is 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
--Maholm is 1-4, 6.93 in seven starts, last of which was May 14.
--Padres lost five of their last seven games.
--Dodgers lost four of their last five games.
--11 of last 13 San Diego road games stayed under.
American League
•White Sox-Indians - 3:05 PM
--Carroll is 1-5, 7.85 in his last seven starts.
--McCallister is 0-4, 10.27 in his last six starts, last of which was May 21.
--White Sox lost their last three games.
--Indians won seven of their last ten games.
--Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Cleveland home games.
•Yankees-Orioles - 4:05 PM
--Greene allowed two runs in six IP in his first MLB start (win at Cleveland).
--Tillman is 2-0, 2.28 in his last four starts.
--New York lost nine of their last fourteen games.
--Baltimore won five of its last six games.
--Nine of last thirteen Bronx road games went over total.
•Red Sox-Astros - 4:10 PM
--Red Sox lost last seven Peavy starts (0-5, 5.27).
--McHugh is 0-5, 5.46 in his last five starts.
--Red Sox won their last three games.
--Astros won three of their last four games.
--Six of last eight Boston road games went over.
•Blue Jays-Rays - 4:10 PM
--Hutchison is 1-3, 4.70 in his last four starts.
--Odorizzi is 2-3, 2.21 in his last six starts.
--Blue Jays lost eight of their last ten road games.
--Tampa Bay lost three of their last four games.
--Six of last seven Hutchison starts stayed under.
•Tigers-Royals - 7:10 PM
--Porcello is 3-1, 2.12 in his last four starts.
--Shields is 1-1, 4.85 in his last four starts.
--Detroit won seven of its last nine road games.
--Royals lost eight of their last eleven home games.
--Seven of last nine Detroit games went over the total.
•Angels-Rangers - 7:15 PM
--Weaver left his last start Monday after two innings (back); he is 2-0, 2.78 in his last four starts.
--Mikolas is 0-1, 12.46 in two starts this season.
--Angels won ten of their last twelve games.
--Rangers lost 12 of their last 13 games.
--14 of last 20 Texas road games went over total.
•Athletics-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Chavez is 2-1, 3.10 in his last five starts.
--Iwakuma is 2-0, 0.69 in his last two starts.
--Oakland won seven of its last nine games.
--Mariners lost three of last four games.
--Seven of last eight Seattle home games stayed under.
Interleague
•Twins-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Correia is 0-3, 3.79 in his last three starts (Twins scored four runs).
--Matzek is 0-3, 5.34 in his last five starts.
--Twins won four of their last six road games.
--Colorado won its last three home games.
--Under is 6-1-1 in last eight games at Coors Field.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Minor 6-7; Jackson 6-12
-- Miley 9-10; Vogelsong 10-8
-- Wainwright 14-4; Nelson 1-0
-- Koehler 8-10; Matsuzaka 4-4
-- Strasburg 10-9; Hamels 6-9
-- Morton 8-10; Leake 8-10
-- Kennedy 9-10; Maholm 2-5
-- Carroll 3-5; McCallister 5-5
-- Greene 1-0; Tillman 13-6
-- Peavy 5-13 (0-7 last 7); McHugh 5-9 (0-5 last 5)
-- Hutchison 9-9; Odorizzi 6-12
-- Porcello 12-5; Shields 12-7
-- Weaver 11-8; Mikolas 0-2
-- Chavez 13-5; Iwakuma 8-5
-- Correia 5-13; Matzek 1-5 (0-5 last 5)
•Umpires Trends
-- Atl-Chi-- Six of last eight Hoberg games went over total.
-- Az-SF-- Last eight Danley games stayed under the total.
-- StL-Mil-- 12 of last 15 Barry games stayed under total.
-- Mia-NY-- Six of seven Marquez games stayed under.
-- Wsh-Phil-- Home side won 13 of last 16 Fletcher games.
-- Pitt-Cin-- Underdogs won six of last seven Gonzalez games.
-- SD-LA-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Rackley games.
-- Chi-Clev-- Under is 7-3-2 in last twelve HGibson games.
-- NY-Balt-- Five of seven Joyce games went over the total.
-- Bos-Hst-- Over is 14-3-2 when West umps plate this year.
-- Tor-TB-- Six of last eight Everitt games went over total.
-- Det-KC-- Four of last five Carapazza games stayed under.
-- LA-Tex-- Six of last nine Reynolds games stayed under.
-- A's-Sea-- 13 of last 18 Davidson games stayed under.
-- Min-Col-- Third home plate in five nights for Hernandez; favorites are 10-2 in his last dozen games behind the plate.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Drew Hutchinson has been compiling a high number of Unders in his recent assignments. Five of the right-handers last six starts have went under the number, including his last three mound appearances. Hutchinson takes the mound (4:10 PM EST) Saturday in a pitchers due with David Price, another pitcher who has been trending towards the Under of late. Six of Price's last eight appearances have been Unders.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
•LA DODGERS are 27-4 (+21.7 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 4.2, OPPONENT 1.6.
•DETROIT is 18-4 OVER (+13.5 Units) versus good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was DETROIT 5.7, OPPONENT 5.3.
•TEXAS is 6-22 (-21.8 Units) against the run line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.7, OPPONENT 5.7.
•MIKE LEAKE is 21-3 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was LEAKE 5.3, OPPONENT 3.5.
•JAKE PEAVY is 30-9 UNDER (+19.6 Units) versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was PEAVY 4.2, OPPONENT 2.7.
•HISASHI IWAKUMA is 19-4 (+16.9 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IWAKUMA 4.5, OPPONENT 2.5.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TAMPA BAY) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(84-20 since 1997.) (80.8%, +49.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -173.8
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 2.8 (Average run differential = +2.5)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +4.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7, +8.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (44-11, +25 units).
•Play Against - Any team against a 1.5 run line (COLORADO) - average National League offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against an average American League starter (ERA=4.30 to 5.70), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games.
(47-20 since 1997.) (70.1%, +29.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (46-21)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0, money line price: +105
The average score in these games was: Team 5.7, Opponent 4.4 (Average run differential = +1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 34 (50.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1, +5.8 units).
•Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 or less (SEATTLE) - very bad American League offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(42-16 since 1997.) (72.4%, +23.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.8, Money Line=-113.4
The average score in these games was: Team 2.7, Opponent 3.4 (Total runs scored = 6.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 35 (60.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-6, -1.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-10, +17.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (41-16, +22.9 units).
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w-thumbs!^
