Malinsky
Pick team is bold, HOME TEAM IS IN CAPS. ALL GAME TIMES EST.
Baseball Picks
7/12/2008
7:05:00 PM -1.5 RUNS,BOSTON RED SOX (Wakefield)
-vs- Baltimore Orioles (Liz)
David Malinsky MLB 4* Boston Red Sox Run Line -1.5 runs +110 vs Baltimore @ 7:05 PM ET - Wakefield vs Liz - Radhames Liz is living a charmed life, and as long as it continues, we are going to find value to step in. It was a 4* win with Texas against him in his last outing, a game in which he was awful, yet almost got bailed out again, and with the Run Line going off in a near pick’em range, we can confidently call for the blowout in this one. That Run Line value range comes from the fact that Liz sports a 3-1 record, but there is nothing good to be found behind those numbers. He has been blistered to a 5.94 tune over seven starts, lasting only 33.1 innings, and yielding danger-zone counts in walks (19) and home runs (seven). If those are your particular issues, then Fenway Park on a warm summer evening can be a haunted house. And his inability to eat innings only means more work for a bullpen that has had to log far too many pitches over the past week. While Liz labors, Tim Wakefield has been one of the best pitchers in the game over his last eight starts, finding a special command of his knuckleball. But once again the bounces of the game help to set us up with value - despite working to a 2.24 in that span, with only 37 hits and 16 walks allowed in 56.1 innings, he only walked away with a 2-3 record. Included in that span was a sparkling seven innings at Baltimore on June 2nd in which he only allowed two runs on five hits over seven innings, but the Red Sox ended up not winning the game. That helps to provide outstanding timing here, as a Baltimore offense that has over-achieved for Liz (a remarkable 7.6 runs per start), and a Boston offense that has under-achieved for Wakefield, revert to their norms here, with the current form of the two starters making it easy to do so.
7/12/2008
9:05:00 PM Los Angeles Angels(Santana)-115
over OAKLAND ATHLETICS (Eveland)
David Malinsky MLB 6* LA Angels $ line -115 @ Oakland @ 9:05 PM ET - Santana vs Eveland - As the All Star break approaches we often reflect back on particular lines that were in bizarre ranges in the first half of the season, and this one will be near the top of the list. The morning pitching forms show Ervin Santana with a 3.53 and Dana Eveland with a 3.50, and as such this game is being priced in a pick’em range. Not a bad price to lay with the better team, better bullpen, and far better starting pitcher. So let’s get to it. There are few stronger “Pitcher vs. Team” dominations than what Santana has been doing against the A’s through his career - it has been an 8-1/1.49 tune, including 3-0/1.45 from this mound. And it makes sense - a pitcher that throws a lot of high heat can induce a free-swinging attack (686 strikeouts, with only Texas having more in the A.L.) to continually chase up in the strike zone. And this season is only cementing that historical dominance, with the A’s only managing three earned runs on 14 hits over 20 innings against him. We can confidently call for more of the same here, and that is going to mean an easy win as the Angels get plenty of opportunities to produce against Eveland. We have been carefully plotting our opportunities to step in against Eveland, who might have the biggest gap between 2008 statistics and real ability of any pitcher out there. Four starts back we cashed a 5* Florida and 5* Over ticket in the same game on this field, and only Monday night it was a 3* Seattle run line ticket that came in as perfectly as anything that we could hope for - in losing by exactly one run the Mariners got us in the money, and the result kept the marketplace from looking closely to see just how awful Eveland was. He only retired 15 of the 28 batters that he faced, and did not get a single strikeout, but actually got rewarded with a ‘W’. Good for us. The bottom line is that he is a classic case of a guy with marginal stuff that has done what lousy left-handers can do - fool opposing hitters on the first pass through a new league. But look at the Eveland splits this season - it has been a 2.95 in all “first look” games, but a 5.64 against teams that are getting a second chance. That speaks volumes. Now it will be the third time around for the Angels, who have already rocked him for nine runs over just 11 innings in winning the first two. There is nothing he can show them that they have not already seen, and already hit. Value such extreme as this one calls for a substantial investment, and that will be the play.
7/12/2008
10:10:00 PM UNDER 7.5 RUNS,LOS ANGELES DODGERS (Kuroda)
-vs- Florida Marlins (Nolasco)
David Malinsky MLB 6* UNDER 7.5 runs in LA Dodgers vs Florida @ 10:10 PM ET - Kuroda vs Nolasco - Is there anyone pitching better, and getting lest notice for it, than Ricky Nolasco right now? And has anyone been any better, period, than Hideki Kuroda over the past two weeks? So after these two offenses struggled to score against far lesser pitching last night, it is easy to call for a lot of 0’s to hit the scoreboard in this one. Nolasco is finally at full healthy for what may be the first time in this Major League career, and while a 10-4/3.74 is impressive enough, the real story is much better - how about an 8-1/2.74 over his last 10 starts, a span in which he has recorded nearly as many strikeouts (57) as hits allowed (59), while walking only 13 batters. And the momentum is building even stronger - over his last two starts it has been 15 strikeouts vs. only eight hits and zero walks. A struggling Dodger offense that has had a difficult time vs. quality right-handers all season has little experience against him, which means that the roll continues here. But Nolasco will be matched pitch for pitch by Kuroda. He has not been scored on in three of his last four starts, and in working back-to-back shutouts he has only allowed six hits and one walk over 16 innings. He handcuffed the Marlins on five hits and no walks over seven innings earlier in South Florida, and from this mound the current run is 23 straight scoreless innings, including back-to-back shutouts of the Cubs and Braves. With a solid bullpen behind him the Marlin task does not get any easier in the latter stages.
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Pick team is bold, HOME TEAM IS IN CAPS. ALL GAME TIMES EST.
Baseball Picks
7/12/2008
7:05:00 PM -1.5 RUNS,BOSTON RED SOX (Wakefield)
-vs- Baltimore Orioles (Liz)
David Malinsky MLB 4* Boston Red Sox Run Line -1.5 runs +110 vs Baltimore @ 7:05 PM ET - Wakefield vs Liz - Radhames Liz is living a charmed life, and as long as it continues, we are going to find value to step in. It was a 4* win with Texas against him in his last outing, a game in which he was awful, yet almost got bailed out again, and with the Run Line going off in a near pick’em range, we can confidently call for the blowout in this one. That Run Line value range comes from the fact that Liz sports a 3-1 record, but there is nothing good to be found behind those numbers. He has been blistered to a 5.94 tune over seven starts, lasting only 33.1 innings, and yielding danger-zone counts in walks (19) and home runs (seven). If those are your particular issues, then Fenway Park on a warm summer evening can be a haunted house. And his inability to eat innings only means more work for a bullpen that has had to log far too many pitches over the past week. While Liz labors, Tim Wakefield has been one of the best pitchers in the game over his last eight starts, finding a special command of his knuckleball. But once again the bounces of the game help to set us up with value - despite working to a 2.24 in that span, with only 37 hits and 16 walks allowed in 56.1 innings, he only walked away with a 2-3 record. Included in that span was a sparkling seven innings at Baltimore on June 2nd in which he only allowed two runs on five hits over seven innings, but the Red Sox ended up not winning the game. That helps to provide outstanding timing here, as a Baltimore offense that has over-achieved for Liz (a remarkable 7.6 runs per start), and a Boston offense that has under-achieved for Wakefield, revert to their norms here, with the current form of the two starters making it easy to do so.
7/12/2008
9:05:00 PM Los Angeles Angels(Santana)-115
over OAKLAND ATHLETICS (Eveland)
David Malinsky MLB 6* LA Angels $ line -115 @ Oakland @ 9:05 PM ET - Santana vs Eveland - As the All Star break approaches we often reflect back on particular lines that were in bizarre ranges in the first half of the season, and this one will be near the top of the list. The morning pitching forms show Ervin Santana with a 3.53 and Dana Eveland with a 3.50, and as such this game is being priced in a pick’em range. Not a bad price to lay with the better team, better bullpen, and far better starting pitcher. So let’s get to it. There are few stronger “Pitcher vs. Team” dominations than what Santana has been doing against the A’s through his career - it has been an 8-1/1.49 tune, including 3-0/1.45 from this mound. And it makes sense - a pitcher that throws a lot of high heat can induce a free-swinging attack (686 strikeouts, with only Texas having more in the A.L.) to continually chase up in the strike zone. And this season is only cementing that historical dominance, with the A’s only managing three earned runs on 14 hits over 20 innings against him. We can confidently call for more of the same here, and that is going to mean an easy win as the Angels get plenty of opportunities to produce against Eveland. We have been carefully plotting our opportunities to step in against Eveland, who might have the biggest gap between 2008 statistics and real ability of any pitcher out there. Four starts back we cashed a 5* Florida and 5* Over ticket in the same game on this field, and only Monday night it was a 3* Seattle run line ticket that came in as perfectly as anything that we could hope for - in losing by exactly one run the Mariners got us in the money, and the result kept the marketplace from looking closely to see just how awful Eveland was. He only retired 15 of the 28 batters that he faced, and did not get a single strikeout, but actually got rewarded with a ‘W’. Good for us. The bottom line is that he is a classic case of a guy with marginal stuff that has done what lousy left-handers can do - fool opposing hitters on the first pass through a new league. But look at the Eveland splits this season - it has been a 2.95 in all “first look” games, but a 5.64 against teams that are getting a second chance. That speaks volumes. Now it will be the third time around for the Angels, who have already rocked him for nine runs over just 11 innings in winning the first two. There is nothing he can show them that they have not already seen, and already hit. Value such extreme as this one calls for a substantial investment, and that will be the play.
7/12/2008
10:10:00 PM UNDER 7.5 RUNS,LOS ANGELES DODGERS (Kuroda)
-vs- Florida Marlins (Nolasco)
David Malinsky MLB 6* UNDER 7.5 runs in LA Dodgers vs Florida @ 10:10 PM ET - Kuroda vs Nolasco - Is there anyone pitching better, and getting lest notice for it, than Ricky Nolasco right now? And has anyone been any better, period, than Hideki Kuroda over the past two weeks? So after these two offenses struggled to score against far lesser pitching last night, it is easy to call for a lot of 0’s to hit the scoreboard in this one. Nolasco is finally at full healthy for what may be the first time in this Major League career, and while a 10-4/3.74 is impressive enough, the real story is much better - how about an 8-1/2.74 over his last 10 starts, a span in which he has recorded nearly as many strikeouts (57) as hits allowed (59), while walking only 13 batters. And the momentum is building even stronger - over his last two starts it has been 15 strikeouts vs. only eight hits and zero walks. A struggling Dodger offense that has had a difficult time vs. quality right-handers all season has little experience against him, which means that the roll continues here. But Nolasco will be matched pitch for pitch by Kuroda. He has not been scored on in three of his last four starts, and in working back-to-back shutouts he has only allowed six hits and one walk over 16 innings. He handcuffed the Marlins on five hits and no walks over seven innings earlier in South Florida, and from this mound the current run is 23 straight scoreless innings, including back-to-back shutouts of the Cubs and Braves. With a solid bullpen behind him the Marlin task does not get any easier in the latter stages.
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