STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SATURDAY, JUNE 21st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 6/21/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #12
Major League Baseball totals of 10 runs or more are joining the likes of the stegosaurus and hand-written letters. With a surge in pitching quality and the crackdown on steroids in baseball, oddsmakers rarely tip the scales when it comes to double-digit totals. Heading into Friday’s action, the Colorado Rockies’ home tilt with the Milwaukee Brewers is pegged with a total of 10.5 runs – just the 25th double-digit total so far this season. Those sky-high numbers have produced a solid profit for those playing the Under, posting a 9-15-1 Over/Under record – 62 percent Under.
Last year, there were only 70 games with totals of 10 or more runs, and those expecting high-scoring contests were dealt a 28-39-3 Over/Under count – 58 percent Under. Over the past two MLB seasons there has been a drastic decline in double-digit totals and also how those games finished for bettors. The 2012 season featured 183 games with totals of 10 or more runs, with Over bettors squeaking out a modest 88-84-11 Over/Under mark (51 percent Over). The season before that, there were 106 games with double-digit totals in 2011, going 55-44-7 Over/Under – 55 percent Over.
This shift in offensive output isn't breaking news to anyone following baseball over the past half decade. The league average runs per game has been on the decline, dipping from 8.76 runs per game (4.38 runs per team) in 2010 to 8.56 in 2011, 8.64 in 2012, 8.34 in 2013 and 8.30 in 2014 – an average of just 4.15 runs scored per team. According to StatSystems Sports Expert Jude Ravo, prior to 2010, the lowest average run production per team over the past 17 MLB seasons was 4.60.
"There has definitely been a drastic drop in overall scoring in MLB the past few seasons and pitchers are dominating, especially since starters pitch fewer innings and managers are more likely to turn to middle relievers and other specialists out of the bullpen," says our Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor.
Even before this sudden power outage at the plate – and the correlated decrease in totals of 10 or more runs - baseball handicappers were wary of double-digit Over/Unders, with many refusing to play any number above 9.5 and any total set at fewer than seven runs. Many attribute high totals to risky outside factors like ballpark and wind.
“I generally assume that totals are set abnormally high for good reason, but can't see any value playing the Over when you're counting on the winning team to score at least six runs,” StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst Larry Hertner says. “I'm not surprised that the Under has been a solid bet over the last couple of years, with improved pitching across the board.”
Those ballpark and wind factors have absolutely played a big role in almost every double-digit total so far this season. The Colorado Rockies and their thin-aired homestead, Coors Field, are the most notorious culprits, responsible for 23 of the 25 double-digit Over/Unders in 2014. The Rockies have helped produce a 9-12-1 Over/Under record in those games heading into Friday evening’s 10.5-run total versus Milwaukee.
The unpredictable Chicago winds at Wrigley Field have factored into two double-digit totals this spring – April 4 versus Philadelphia (11) and April 24 versus Arizona (10). Both games played Under. The only other teams to provoke a total of 10 or more runs were the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins, who clashed in the Rogers Centre on June 10 with a total of 10 runs. The hard-hitting Blue Jays, who lead the bigs in home runs with 95, were blanked 4-0 by the Twins, who boast a 4.29 collective ERA (26th in the majors).
Note: Coors Field has been the biggest factor when it comes to double-digit spreads since 2011. It has hosted 134 regular season games with totals of 10 or more runs, producing a 68-61-5 Over/Under (53 percent Over) record in that span.
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Betting Notes - Saturday
National League
•Phillies-Cardinals - 4:10 PM
--Hamels is 1-0, 0.00 (22.2 IP) in his last three starts.
--Wainwright is 1-0, 1.20 in his last two starts, but missed his last turn with an elbow issue.
--Philly won nine of its last eleven games.
--Cardinals lost their last three games.
--Under is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Cardinal games.
•Mets-Marlins - 4:10 PM
--DeGrom is 0-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
--Koehler is 1-2, 6.99 in his last five starts.
--Mets lost nine of their last eleven road games.
--Marlins lost nine of their last fourteen home games.
--Under is 7-2-1 in New York's last ten games.
•Brewers-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Peralta is 3-0, 3.93 in his last three starts.
--Friedrich is making first '14 start; he was 5-8, 6.17 in 16 big league starts back in 2012. He is 1-8, 7.89 in 13 AAA starts this season.
--Milwaukee won eight of its last ten road games.
--Rockies lost nine of their last twelve home games.
--Over is 7-1-2 in last Colorado games.
•Pirates- Cubs - 7:15 PM
--Worley threw seven shutout innings in his first '14 start.
--Wood is 2-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.
--Pirates lost four of their last five games.
--Cubs won nine of their last eleven home games.
--Five of last six games at Wrigley Field went over total.
•Braves-Nationals - 7:15 PM
--Teheran is 4-1, 2.47 in his last six starts.
--Fister is 5-1, 2.58 in his last six starts.
--Braves are 5-1 in second game of road series if they won opener.
--Washington won five of its last seven home games, but is 7-20 in its last 27 games against Atlanta. .
--Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Atlanta games.
•Giants-Arizona - 10:10 PM
--Vogelsong is 1-1, 5.70 in his last four starts.
--McCarthy is 0-4, 6.00 in his last four starts.
--Giants lost nine of their last ten games.
--Arizona lost seven of its last ten games.
--Under is 9-3 in Arizona's last twelve home games.
•Dodgers-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Beckett is 2-3, 2.18 in his last five starts, including a no-hitter.
--Ross is 0-2, 5.50 in his last three starts.
--Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
--San Diego won four of its last five home games.
--Six of last seven San Diego games stayed under the total.
American League
•Orioles-Yankees - 1:05 PM
--Norris is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
--Nuno is 0-3, 6.94 in his last seven starts.
--Orioles are 7-3 in second game of series if they lost the opener.
--Yankees won its last five home games.
--Six of last eight Baltimore road games went over total.
•White Sox-Twins - 2:10 PM
--Rienzo is 0-4, 10.50 in his last four starts.
--Correia is 1-1, 0.75 in his last two starts.
--White Sox lost seven of their last nine road games.
--Minnesota lost five of its last seven games, but won last two.
--Over is 9-3-1 in White Sox' last thirteen games.
•Mariners-Royals - 2:10 PM
--Young is 3-2, 3.18 in his last five starts.
--Vargas is 3-0, 2.31 in his last five starts.
--Mariners lost seven of their last eleven games.
--Kansas City won ten of its last twelve games.
--11 of Seattle's last 13 games stayed under the total.
•Red Sox-Athletics - 4:05 PM
--De La Rosa is 0-2, 6.35 in two road starts this season.
--Chavez is 2-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
--Red Sox lost nine of their last eleven road games.
--Oakland won nine of its last eleven home games.
--Under is 11-1-1 in last thirteen Boston games; eight of last ten Chavez starts went over.
•Astros-Rays - 4:10 PM
--Peacock is 2-0, 2.93 in his last five starts.
--Odorizzi is 0-4, 4.55 in his last six starts, 0-1, 2.13 in his last two.
--Astros lost five of their last seven games.
--Tampa Bay lost nine of its last thirteen home games.
--Five of last seven Peacock starts stayed under total.
•Tigers-Indians - 7:15 PM
--Verlander is 0-3, 9.64 in his last three starts.
--Bauer is 1-2, 5.02 in his last five starts.
--Tigers are 5-7 in last twelve games, but won last two.
--Cleveland won 11 of its last 13 home games.
--12 of last 17 Cleveland home games went over total.
•Rangers-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Martinez is 0-3, 10.80 in his last three starts.
--Weaver is 1-3, 6.17 in his last four starts.
--Texas lost four of its last five games.
--Angels are 12-3 in their last 15 home games.
--Over is 3-1-1 in last five Weaver starts.
Interleague
•Blue Jays-Reds - 4:10 PM
--Happ is 2-2, 5.25 in his last four starts.
--Leake is 1-2, 8.22 in his last three starts.
--Toronto are 14-5 in their last 19 road games.
--Reds won six of their last nine games.
--Seven of nine Happ starts stayed under total.
•Umpires Trends
-- Phil-StL-- Seven of last eight Vanover games went over.
-- NY-Mia-- Six of last nine Kulpa games stayed under.
-- Mil-Col-- Road team won last seven Hamari games (dogs 4-2 last six).
-- Pitt-Chi-- Over is 6-2-2 in last ten Tumpane games.
-- Atl-Wsh-- Nine of last eleven Fagan games stayed under.
-- SF-Az-- Five of last six Bucknor games stayed under.
-- LA-SD-- Eight of last eleven TBarrett games went over.
-- Blt-NY-- Home teams won six of last eight Hallion games.
-- Chi-Min-- Favorites won nine of last ten Segal games.
-- Sea-KC-- Seven of last ten Barry games stayed under.
-- Bos-A's-- Favorites won five of last six Wolcott games.
-- Hst-TB-- Four of last five Gonzalez games stayed under.
-- Det-Clev-- Favorites won eight of last nine Baker games.
-- Tex-LAA-- Underdogs won three of last four Carapazza games.
-- Tor-Cin-- Over is 9-3-1 in West games this season.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
•SEATTLE is 11-1 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games versus a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 5.5, OPPONENT 3.2.
•PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.4, OPPONENT 3.1.
•TAMPA BAY is 0-13 (-14.8 Units) against the run line versus a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.7, OPPONENT 4.8.
•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 9-22 (-27.7 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.1, OPPONENT 5.2.
•COLE HAMELS is 16-3 UNDER (+12.6 Units) versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAMELS 2.6, OPPONENT 3.0.
•BRANDON MCCARTHY is 2-13 (-14.3 Units) against the run line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MCCARTHY 2.9, OPPONENT 5.2.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PHILADELPHIA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) - National League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts.
(46-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.6%, +32.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -153.9
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2, +2.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-8, +20.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (70-24, +32.5 units).
•Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season (American League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 on the season-AL.
(77-22 since 1997.) (77.8%, +43.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (58-41)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -152
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 4.5 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 58 (58.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2, +2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3, +9.4 units).
•Play Under - Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (ATLANTA) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL).
(65-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.4%, +31.4 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.4, Money Line=-113.3
The average score in these games was: Team 3, Opponent 3.6 (Total runs scored = 6.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 53 (57% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (14-10, +2.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-24, +17.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (100-68, +22.1 units).
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w-thumbs!^
