Dave Malinsky:
<TABLE class=data id=hcFreePicks_tblFreePick><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead id=hcFreePicks_tdGame>GAME: Nationals (HT) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (HT) May 31, 2008 8:10PM</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell id=hcFreePicks_tdSport>
SPORT: MLB First 5 Innings</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell id=hcFreePicks_tdPick>
PICK: under</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell id=hcFreePicks_tdReason>
REASON FOR PICK: 4* WASHINGTON/ARIZONA First Half Under 4
After these two played to a series opening Over on Friday we have been left with outstanding value to back Brandon Webb and Jason Bergmann in a setting in which we can call for each to pitch particularly well against the opposing lineup. And the circumstances of the setting tell us that the First Five Innings is the best way to take advantage.
Webb is off of a rare bad outing at Atlanta, but there is no reason to be alarmed - the Braves can load up a lineup with quality left-handers, and might be his single biggest challenge in the N.L. right now. Washington is at the other end of that spectrum. Webb has simply dominated right-handed hitters this season, allowing an anemic .186, with far more strikeouts (38) than hits allowed (27), and only one home run in 145 at-bats. As for left-handed punch, the Nationals simply do not have any. They also lack experience against Webb, with six of the eight position starters having less than 10 career at-bats. With a chip on his shoulder off of the Atlanta defeat, we will call for him to confidently attack this lineup on the first couple of passes.
We also get fair value here because the pitching forms will show Jason Bergmann at 1-1/4.50 for the season, but those numbers carry little meaning. He got off to a dismal start, so much so that they sent him back down to the Minor’s to find his mechanics. He did that in a significant way, allowing just three runs over 21 innings in his last three starts with Columbus, and since being called back up he has been electric - he has not allowed a single run over 19.2 innings, with a dominating ratio of 22 strikeouts vs. only 12 hits allowed. And with no Diamondback having more than seven career at-bats against him, his form can hold up through the first couple of passes as well.
Making the opening stanzas of this game even better for our purposes is the early local starting time - because of that the roof at Chase Field will be closed for roughly the first 90 minutes of play, which could be the entirety of our involvement. This park continues to play much lower when the roof is closed and the air conditioning is running, and provides the ideal setting to get the offenses off to a slow start. And by making that our focus, we can avoid potential late-inning shenanigans, particularly with a Washington bullpen that has been overworked on this road trip.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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