STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
SATURDAY, MAY 17TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#951 ATLANTA @ #952 ST LOUIS - 2:15 PM
•Braves RH Aaron Harang (4-3, 2.98 ERA, WHIP: 1.179) - Harang has pitched well in his past two outings after giving up nine runs in Miami on April 30, allowing six earned runs in 12 innings in going 1-1. That one loss was to St. Louis on May 5, when he gave up four runs – two earned – with six strikeouts in six innings. Harang struck out nine in six innings Sunday against the Chicago Cubs, giving up two runs in a 5-2 Atlanta victory.
--KEY STAT: HARANG is 13-4 OVER (+8.9 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 3.9, OPPONENT 5.5.
--HARANG is 11-2 UNDER (+8.9 Units) against National League Central opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 2.9, OPPONENT 3.0.
•Cardinals RH Shelby Miller (5-2, 3.22 ERA, WHIP: 1.478) - Miller has recovered from a rough start to the season, winning his past four starts while posting a 2.86 ERA. He beat the Braves in Atlanta on May 5, allowing two runs on six hits in five innings, and is 2-1 lifetime against Atlanta. Miller continues to battle control issues with 27 walks – tied for most in the majors – but has only allowed seven earned runs during his winning streak.
--KEY STAT: MILLER is 12-6 against the run line (+8.7 Units) at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MILLER 4.7, OPPONENT 3.2.
#953 MILWAUKEE @ #954 CHICAGO CUBS - 2:20 PM
•Brewers RH Matt Garza (2-3, 4.98 ERA, WHIP: 1.447) - Garza has a 7.07 ERA in three starts since dominating the Cubs on April 25. Included in that stretch was a rough outing at St. Louis in which he gave up five runs in three innings, lifting his road ERA to 8.36. The 30-year-old is 12-7 with an impressive 2.70 mark in 28 career starts at Wrigley Field.
--KEY STAT: GARZA is 17-26 (-17.2 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GARZA 4.6, OPPONENT 4.7.
•Cubs RH Edwin Jackson (2-3, 4.56 ERA, WHIP: 1.436) - While Garza has scuffled of late, Jackson has been a bit better, allowing four runs while striking out 12 in 13 innings this month. The veteran has yielded just two home runs in 47 1/3 innings on the year and has not issued more than two walks in a start since April 8. Jackson is 4-6 with a 3.69 ERA in 12 career starts against Milwaukee.
--KEY STAT: JACKSON is 17-33 (-15.4 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 4.0, OPPONENT 4.7.
--JACKSON is 23-47 (-24.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.8, OPPONENT 4.8.
#955 NY METS @ #956 WASHINGTON - 4:05 PM
•Mets RH Bartolo Colon (2-5, 5.84 ERA, WHIP: 1.439) - Despite coming away with a no-decision, Colon was roughed up for the second time in three turns in Monday’s 9-7 victory over the Yankees. The portly 40-year-old yielded seven runs (six earned) and a season high-tying 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings, marking the third outing in which he has allowed at least six earned runs and 10 hits since April 13. Colon, who is allowing opposing hitters to bat .352 against him on the road but has never pitched at Nationals Park, is 1-3 with a 7.67 ERA in five turns away from home.
--KEY STAT: COLON is 20-9 (+12.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 4.8, OPPONENT 3.0.
--COLON is 11-2 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 4.6, OPPONENT 1.5.
•Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (3-3, 3.97 ERA, WHIP: 1.238) - Gonzalez was pummeled by Oakland on Sunday, giving up a season-high seven runs on nine hits and three walks over a campaign-low 4 1/3 innings in a 9-1 setback. The two-time All-Star, who surrendered as many homers to Derek Norris in the contest (two) as he did in his first seven turns combined, will make his first start in four outings at home, where he is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. Gonzalez allowed one run over six frames in a win versus the Mets on April 2 and is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA in nine all-time turns against them.
--KEY STAT: GONZALEZ is 23-5 (+17.2 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.0, OPPONENT 2.5.
--GONZALEZ is 57-27 (+25.5 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.0, OPPONENT 3.3.
--GONZALEZ is 41-16 (+18.3 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.6, OPPONENT 3.7.
--GONZALEZ is 11-3 OVER (+7.9 Units) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.8, OPPONENT 4.0.
#957 CINCINNATI @ #958 PHILADELPHIA - 7:05 PM
•Reds RH Homer Bailey (3-2, 4.72 ERA, WHIP: 1.511) - Like Hamels, Bailey also is coming off a season high for pitches thrown (112) in his last start. However, Bailey's 7 1/3 innings against the Rockies marked just the second time this season he has lasted more than six frames. The Phillies are one of three National League teams that Bailey has never defeated, as the 28-year-old Texas native is 0-3 with a 3.61 ERA in eight career starts versus Philadelphia.
--KEY STAT: BAILEY is 25-9 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAILEY 5.4, OPPONENT 3.3.
--BAILEY is 1-10 (-9.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAILEY 2.1, OPPONENT 4.6.
•Phillies LH Cole Hamels (0-2, 5.32 ERA, WHIP: 1.732) - Hamels has terrific career numbers against the Reds, going 7-0 with a 1.70 ERA in 10 regular-season starts, not to mention a five-hit shutout in the clinching Game 3 of the 2010 National League Division Series. Brandon Phillips (4-for-28, eight strikeouts) and Joey Votto (2-for-14) are two of the Cincinnati stars with terrible career numbers against Hamels. The former World Series MVP has not pitched well at home this season, however, posting a 9.28 ERA in two starts at Citizens Bank Park.
--KEY STAT: HAMELS is 4-14 (-16.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.0.
--HAMELS is 6-14 (-14.5 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 3.1, OPPONENT 3.8.
--HAMELS is 4-13 (-14.4 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 2.8, OPPONENT 3.7.
--HAMELS is 7-16 (-15.0 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 3.1, OPPONENT 3.9.
--HAMELS is 3-18 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 3.1, OPPONENT 4.7.
--HAMELS is 0-8 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 2.6, OPPONENT 5.5.
--HAMELS is 7-18 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 2.9, OPPONENT 3.7.
--HAMELS is 3-13 (-14.9 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 2.8, OPPONENT 4.5.
#959 SAN DIEGO @ #960 COLORADO - 8:10 PM
•Padres LH Robbie Erlin (2-4, 4.22 ERA, WHIP: 1.241) - After posting a 5.83 ERA in six games (five starts) in April, Erlin has yielded just one run in 13 1/3 innings this month. He posted 6 1/3 scoreless frames versus Miami on Sunday, tying a personal best with seven strikeouts and getting through a start without a walk for the third time in his career. The 23-year-old was reached for three runs in 4 2/3 innings against Colorado on April 15.
•Rockies RH Jordan Lyles (5-0, 2.66 ERA, WHIP: 1.085) - Lyles has a chance to become the second Rockies pitcher (Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010) to begin a season 6-0. He has recorded five straight quality starts since allowing three runs in five innings at San Diego on April 14, an outing that left him with a 5.48 ERA in four career appearances versus the Padres. Lyles is 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA in three home starts.
--KEY STAT: LYLES is 12-3 OVER (+8.8 Units) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LYLES 4.0, OPPONENT 6.1.
--LYLES is 12-2 OVER (+9.9 Units) versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LYLES 4.9, OPPONENT 5.9.
--LYLES is 16-6 OVER (+9.8 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LYLES 5.7, OPPONENT 5.3.
--LYLES is 14-3 OVER (+11.1 Units) when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LYLES 4.8, OPPONENT 7.2.
#961 LA DODGERS @ #962 ARIZONA - 8:10 PM
•Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (2-0, 1.74 ERA, WHIP: 1.064) - After winning his first two starts in impressive fashion, Kershaw settled for a no-decision despite striking out nine for the second straight outing. The 26-year-old allowed three runs on seven hits in seven innings versus San Francisco on Sunday. Kershaw improved to 8-6 in his career against Arizona after permitting one run on five hits over 6 2/3 frames in a 3-1 triumph on March 22.
--KEY STAT: KERSHAW is 15-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 4.9, OPPONENT 1.8.
•Diamondbacks RH Chase Anderson (1-0, 1.69 ERA, WHIP: 0.560) - Anderson shined in his major-league debut on Sunday, yielding one run on two hits and striking out six in 5 1/3 innings versus the Chicago White Sox. The 26-year-old did himself a favor by routinely getting ahead in the count, while his lone blemish came when Moises Sierra ripped a one-out homer in the sixth. Anderson enjoyed a 20-inning scoreless streak and owned a 4-2 mark with a 0.69 ERA prior to being recalled from Double-A Mobile.
#963 MIAMI @ #964 SAN FRANCISCO - 9:05 PM
•Marlins RH Tom Koehler (3-3, 2.57 ERA, WHIP: 1.143) - Koehler is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed four runs with five walks while throwing 103 pitches over 3 2/3 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday. The rough outing snapped his 16-inning scoreless streak and raised Koehler’s ERA from 1.99 to 2.57. The 27-year-old is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two career starts against the Giants.
•Giants RH Tim Lincecum (3-2, 4.78 ERA, WHIP: 1.546) - Lincecum turned in a stellar effort against the Atlanta Braves on Monday, allowing one run on two hits with 11 strikeouts over a season-high 7 2/3 innings. “It was vintage Timmy the way he had his good secondary pitches going along with the fastball,” manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com. Garrett Jones is 4-for-17 with eight strikeouts against the two-time Cy Young Award winner, who is 2-1 with a 3.71 ERA in five career starts against Miami.
--KEY STAT: LINCECUM is 64-44 OVER (+18.6 Units) in the first half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LINCECUM 4.3, OPPONENT 4.1.
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