Tom Freese Blue Line Club
MLB
Houston at Texas (7:05pm)
Houston is 7-0 with Roy Oswalt when favored by -110 to -150 and they are 49-15 with Oswalt after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. The Astros are 38-18 with Oswalt vs. losing teams. Texas is 2-7 on Saturday and they are 1-5 in the last 6 Saturday starts made by Padilla and he is 1-5 vs. the Astros with a 5.09 ERA in 6 career starts vs. them. PLAY ON HOUSTON (Oswalt vs. Padilla)
MLB
Houston at Texas (7:05pm)
Houston is 7-0 with Roy Oswalt when favored by -110 to -150 and they are 49-15 with Oswalt after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. The Astros are 38-18 with Oswalt vs. losing teams. Texas is 2-7 on Saturday and they are 1-5 in the last 6 Saturday starts made by Padilla and he is 1-5 vs. the Astros with a 5.09 ERA in 6 career starts vs. them. PLAY ON HOUSTON (Oswalt vs. Padilla)
At 6 pm, on Saturday, our Preakness Stakes wager will be a 3-horse Exacta Box of Big Brown, Racecar Rhapsody, and Kentucky Bear.
When you have a situation such as Saturday's 133rd running of the Preakness Stakes where a horse looks unbeatable, it simply doesn't make sense to try and handicap for the win. Big Brown looks as close to peerless in this race as any Triple Crown horse in recent memory and if you didn't believe it before Wednesday's post-position draw, then his 1-2 morning line should have laid any doubts to rest. I can't ever remember any horse in a Triple Crown race (except perhaps Secretariat or Seattle Slew in the Belmont) being given a morning line like that. Of course, it's possible his odds will change, but if his odds go anywhere, it will be down even further. So what we do in this case is handicap the race as if he weren't running in it and then look for value in the exacta wager. After all, there are 13 horses in the race, which means that there is a good chance that there will be a $40 exacta possibility with Big Brown and a longshot horse. The first thing I will do is throw out the second choice, which is the only other Derby horse who is showing up in the race - Gayego. There are plenty of reasons not to like him. He ran very poorly in the Derby and I'm not buying the excuses of a poor trip or getting bumped or anything like that. Second, he has shipped all over the country in the last 4 weeks (California to Arkansas; back to California; then to Kentucky and back to California, and now across the country again to Maryland). No matter what his connections say, this cannot do him any good. And when he won the Arkansas Derby (his first start on dirt), the race was paceless and set up perfectly for him as he held on to win by a 3/4 of a length. That will not be the case in the Preakness. By eliminating Gayego from the possibility of finishing second, we are eliminating what will likely be a sizable chunk of the exacta pool. The next obvious horse is Todd Pletcher's closer, Behindatthebar. His morning line is 10-1, but it's possible that by post time, he will be co-second choice or even ahead of Gayego in the odds. But as much as I liked this horse in the Lexington Stakes, I'm also going to thow him out of the exacta because of his only other start on a dirt track (in the El Camino Real Derby) which was his worst race and the only time he finished out of the exacta in five lifetime tries.
For my longshot horses to use in the exacta, I'm going to look to the two horses with post positions next to Big Brown. First, on the inside of the favorite in the #6 hole is a horse named Racecar Rhapsody. For this horse to be 30-1 in the morning line is absurd. He is one of the biggest closers in the field, has been extremely competitive on both artificial and dirt surfaces, has raced seven times (all with the same very competent jockey, Robby Albarado, which I love to see) and is trained by the very underrated Kenny McPeak. If this horse is anywhere near 30-1 come race time, he must be used in an exacta box with the big favorite.
On the outside of Big Brown is a lightly-raced horse named Kentucky Bear. Unlike Racecar Rhapsody, this horse has some tactical speed, and if the earlier races show that the Pimlico strip is its usual speed-favoring self, then this horse will have the perfect stalking position outside of Big Brown and may be perfectly positioned to challenge him down the stretch. If the pace is soft up front and there are traffic problems for any of the closers (Racecar, Behindatthebar, Yankee Bravo, Stevil) then I like his chances even better. Kentucky Bear's morning line is 15-1 and his connections of Canadian-based trainer Reade Baker and journeyman jockey Jamie Theriot are going to be unknown to all but the most serious racing fans, but that's a good thing as Baker has a very respectable winning percentage in graded stakes (15%) and Theriot was one of the leading riders at the recently concluded Keeneland meet after moving to Kentucky from the Arkansas-Louisiana circuit last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kentucky Bear's odds creep up closer to 20-1 by post time, and that is going to be fine by me.
Let's go with an Exacta Box of Big Brown, Racecar Rhapsody and Kentucky Bear, and if we're really lucky, Big Brown will finish 2nd to one of the other two horses, but we'll win so long as two of our three horses finish in the top two spots. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.<!-- / message -->
When you have a situation such as Saturday's 133rd running of the Preakness Stakes where a horse looks unbeatable, it simply doesn't make sense to try and handicap for the win. Big Brown looks as close to peerless in this race as any Triple Crown horse in recent memory and if you didn't believe it before Wednesday's post-position draw, then his 1-2 morning line should have laid any doubts to rest. I can't ever remember any horse in a Triple Crown race (except perhaps Secretariat or Seattle Slew in the Belmont) being given a morning line like that. Of course, it's possible his odds will change, but if his odds go anywhere, it will be down even further. So what we do in this case is handicap the race as if he weren't running in it and then look for value in the exacta wager. After all, there are 13 horses in the race, which means that there is a good chance that there will be a $40 exacta possibility with Big Brown and a longshot horse. The first thing I will do is throw out the second choice, which is the only other Derby horse who is showing up in the race - Gayego. There are plenty of reasons not to like him. He ran very poorly in the Derby and I'm not buying the excuses of a poor trip or getting bumped or anything like that. Second, he has shipped all over the country in the last 4 weeks (California to Arkansas; back to California; then to Kentucky and back to California, and now across the country again to Maryland). No matter what his connections say, this cannot do him any good. And when he won the Arkansas Derby (his first start on dirt), the race was paceless and set up perfectly for him as he held on to win by a 3/4 of a length. That will not be the case in the Preakness. By eliminating Gayego from the possibility of finishing second, we are eliminating what will likely be a sizable chunk of the exacta pool. The next obvious horse is Todd Pletcher's closer, Behindatthebar. His morning line is 10-1, but it's possible that by post time, he will be co-second choice or even ahead of Gayego in the odds. But as much as I liked this horse in the Lexington Stakes, I'm also going to thow him out of the exacta because of his only other start on a dirt track (in the El Camino Real Derby) which was his worst race and the only time he finished out of the exacta in five lifetime tries.
For my longshot horses to use in the exacta, I'm going to look to the two horses with post positions next to Big Brown. First, on the inside of the favorite in the #6 hole is a horse named Racecar Rhapsody. For this horse to be 30-1 in the morning line is absurd. He is one of the biggest closers in the field, has been extremely competitive on both artificial and dirt surfaces, has raced seven times (all with the same very competent jockey, Robby Albarado, which I love to see) and is trained by the very underrated Kenny McPeak. If this horse is anywhere near 30-1 come race time, he must be used in an exacta box with the big favorite.
On the outside of Big Brown is a lightly-raced horse named Kentucky Bear. Unlike Racecar Rhapsody, this horse has some tactical speed, and if the earlier races show that the Pimlico strip is its usual speed-favoring self, then this horse will have the perfect stalking position outside of Big Brown and may be perfectly positioned to challenge him down the stretch. If the pace is soft up front and there are traffic problems for any of the closers (Racecar, Behindatthebar, Yankee Bravo, Stevil) then I like his chances even better. Kentucky Bear's morning line is 15-1 and his connections of Canadian-based trainer Reade Baker and journeyman jockey Jamie Theriot are going to be unknown to all but the most serious racing fans, but that's a good thing as Baker has a very respectable winning percentage in graded stakes (15%) and Theriot was one of the leading riders at the recently concluded Keeneland meet after moving to Kentucky from the Arkansas-Louisiana circuit last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kentucky Bear's odds creep up closer to 20-1 by post time, and that is going to be fine by me.
Let's go with an Exacta Box of Big Brown, Racecar Rhapsody and Kentucky Bear, and if we're really lucky, Big Brown will finish 2nd to one of the other two horses, but we'll win so long as two of our three horses finish in the top two spots. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.<!-- / message -->
all the horses in all the orders. For example, a 1-2-3 tri box gives you the following bets
1-2-3
1-3-2
2-1-3
2-3-1
3-1-2
3-2-1
So you have 6 bets altogether, but it's easier to say 1-2-3 tri box than to list them all.
Just remember, your total amount is the bet amount times the # of bets, so a $2 tri box 1-2-3 would cost $12 - 6 bets x $2
*** EZWINNERS EARLY MLB ***
2 STAR: (959) NY METS (+$125) over NY Yankees
(Listing Santana only)
(Risking $200 to win $250)
12:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (951) PITTSBURGH (+$213) over Chicago
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $213)
12:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (953) TAMPA BAY (+$111) over St. Louis
(Listing Garza only)
(Risking $100 to win $111)
12:10PM Central Time<!-- / message -->
2 STAR: (959) NY METS (+$125) over NY Yankees
(Listing Santana only)
(Risking $200 to win $250)
12:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (951) PITTSBURGH (+$213) over Chicago
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $213)
12:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (953) TAMPA BAY (+$111) over St. Louis
(Listing Garza only)
(Risking $100 to win $111)
12:10PM Central Time<!-- / message -->
Frank Rosenthal
SATURDAY, MAY 17, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA PLAYOFFS
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
SERIES TIED @ 3-3
SUNDAY'S EARLY LEAD GAME 7
534 CELLTICS-7 SB+
UNDER 175.5 SB+
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
952 CUBS-240 SB
955 BREWERS+145 SB+ GM-2
959 NYM-125 SB
961 TRIBE+105 SB
965 JAYS-110 SB
968 FISH-120 SB
970 BRAVES-140 SB
977 CWS-130 SB
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO.
SATURDAY, MAY 17, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA PLAYOFFS
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
SERIES TIED @ 3-3
SUNDAY'S EARLY LEAD GAME 7
534 CELLTICS-7 SB+
UNDER 175.5 SB+
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
952 CUBS-240 SB
955 BREWERS+145 SB+ GM-2
959 NYM-125 SB
961 TRIBE+105 SB
965 JAYS-110 SB
968 FISH-120 SB
970 BRAVES-140 SB
977 CWS-130 SB
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO.
