Service Plays Saturday 4/19/14

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 4/19/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Saturday, 4/19/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
______________________________________________

•Situational Trends of The Day
-- GOLDEN STATE is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 103.5, OPPONENT 98.1.

-- GOLDEN STATE is 31-9 UNDER (+21.1 Units) in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games since 1996.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 100.2, OPPONENT 107.6.

-- PORTLAND is 16-33 (-20.3 Units) against the 1rst half line after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.4, OPPONENT 53.1.

-- MEMPHIS is 31-10 UNDER (+20.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games this season.
The average score was MEMPHIS 44.7, OPPONENT 46.0.

-- MARK JACKSON is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.
The average score was JACKSON 101.3, OPPONENT 99.9.

•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- INDIANA is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 95.3, OPPONENT 94.4.

-- ATLANTA is 24-8 OVER (+15.2 Units) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 101.3, OPPONENT 101.7.

-- INDIANA is 4-19 (-16.9 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 45.8, OPPONENT 48.7.

-- INDIANA is 31-7 UNDER (+23.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was INDIANA 44.6, OPPONENT 45.8.

-- DOC RIVERS is 18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game as the coach of LA CLIPPERS.
The average score was RIVERS 110.5, OPPONENT 107.5.

•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BROOKLYN) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games.
(33-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.8%, +30.4 units. Rating = 6*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +107.1
The average score in these games was: Team 104.5, Opponent 95.8 (Average point differential = +8.7)

The situation's record this season is: (10-3, +7.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-3, +18.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (63-34, +29.7 units).

-- Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - an explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games.
(35-9 since 1996.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (40-6)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.7
The average score in these games was: Team 113.3, Opponent 100.8 (Average point differential = +12.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (40.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (5-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).

-- Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - an explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against a very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a road loss.
(38-13 since 1996.) (74.5%, +23.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 216.8
The average score in these games was: Team 104.9, Opponent 105.7 (Total points scored = 210.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 27 (54% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).

-- Play Against - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (GOLDEN STATE) - an explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more.
(48-18 since 1996.) (72.7%, +28.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 55.3, Opponent 48.2 (Average first half point differential = +7)

The situation's record this season is: (7-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-2).
___________________________________________

NBA Playoff Statistics: Taking a Closer Look at the Seeding Matchups
The NBA Playoffs are set to begin on Saturday after another thrilling, yet sometimes ugly and monotonous, regular season. The storylines and rivalries heading into the postseason, however, remain as intriguing, as entertaining and as high stakes as ever. LeBron James and the Miami Heat look to continue their assault on the record books by looking to become only the third team in NBA history to win three straight titles. The San Antonio Spurs continue to chase true dynasty status by looking to add a fifth title 16 years after their first, while Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder try to cap off one of the greatest offensive seasons in NBA history with a title.

For bettors, it’s a chance to add a few end-of-season profits prior to the sports betting landscape drying up before the return of football season. The NBA Playoffs can be more straight forward than other sports since the best teams usually win, and there are rarely major upset during the first round. Let’s take a closer look at the playoffs and go over a few stats and trends for each seeding matchup.

•No. 1 Versus No. 8
The No. 1 seed rarely loses in the first round of the playoffs. In fact, an upset during that matchup has happened only five times since the NBA moved to a 16-team format in 1984, and one of those series has a big asterisk since Derrick Rose blew out his knee during the first game of Chicago’s No. 1 versus No. 8 matchup against Philadelphia.

However, even counting that matchup, the No. 1 seed will lose in the first round of the playoffs only 12 percent of the time. Betting wise, the top seeds have gone 58-51-4 ATS since 2003, while the favorites during those matchups are 61-47-4 during that span. The home team in matchup has also performed well and currently carries a 64-45-4 ATS record.

•No. 2 Versus No. 7
The No. 2 seeds have out-performed the No. 1 seeds by a solid margin during the first round of the playoffs. The teams with the second-best records managed to go 7-3 ATS during last season’s playoffs. Overall, the No. 2 seed has gone 63-45-8 ATS since 2003 for a whopping 58 percent win rate. The favorites in the No. 2 versus No. 7 series have also performed well by producing a 60-47-8 ATS record during that span.

During the last five seasons, the No. 2 seed has been upset in a series only once, back in 2010 when San Antonio eliminated Dallas in six games. In fact, the No. 7 seed has managed to win only 14 games during that span and will be carrying a 14-38 SU record into 2014’s matchups.

•No. 3 Versus No.6
The No. 3 seed has been a solid SU team and managed to win eight of the last 10 first-round matchups against the No. 6 seed with a 35-23 record. The area that the No. 3 seed struggles at is against the spread. Last season the No. 3 Denver Nuggets did not cover a single game in its upset series loss to the Golden State Warriors. Since 2003, the No. 3 seeds are 61-61-2 ATS.

•No. 4 Versus No.5
Once you get down to the No. 4 versus No. 5 matchups, there is very little difference between the teams, and the No. 5 squad has actually performed better in that spot than its high-ranked opponent. The No. 5 team has won six of the last 10 first-round matchups and currently holds a 31-30 SU record during that span.

ATS wise, the No. 5 team is 64-61 since 2003, while the home team during those matchups ended up with a 65-62 mark. However, the one thing to keep in mind during this matchup is that since a 2006 rule change, the No. 4 seed now goes to one of the division winners as opposed to the team with the actual fourth-best record in the league. And in some instances a No. 5 seed may have a better record than the No. 4 seed, as was the case during last year’s matchup between the Los Angeles Clipper and Memphis Grizzlies.

Four Important Stats For Betting The NBA Playoffs
The National Basketball Association Playoffs are almost here and with the postseason picture all but painted, basketball bettors are beginning to size up the potential matchups. Before you start getting down on the NBA title futures or wager on the series and Game #1 odds, make sure to check out just which teams excel in these important statistical categories.

•Second-Chance Points For/Against
Nothing makes or breaks a bet more than a late put-back or a huge offensive rebound that resets the shot clock. Teams with the tenacity to grab those second-chance looks and limit their opponents from them are the ones you want your money on when the playoffs heat up. The Portland Trail Blazers are the best playoff-bound team at generating second-chance buckets, averaging 16.2 second-chance points per game. Behind them are the Toronto Raptors (15.4), Chicago Bulls (15.0), and Memphis Grizzlies (14.6).

On the other side, the Grizzlies don’t give foes many extra looks, limiting teams to 12.2 second-chance points per game, followed by the Indiana Pacers (12.3), Oklahoma City Thunder (12.4) and Chicago Bulls (12.5). Surprisingly, some of the top contenders for the NBA title – and those that will see the heftiest pointspreads in the playoffs - rank among the teams allowing the most second-chance points. The Houston Rockets average 14.7 second-chance points against while the Los Angeles Clippers (14.3) and defending champion Miami Heat (14.3) are near the top of the list.

•Crunch-Time Free Throws
With playoff spreads tighter than John Stockton’s shorts, every point counts. And when it comes to playoffs success – and ATS success – free throws can quickly add up. Putting your money on a team that won’t fold at the line when the pressure is on is imperative to covering the spread. StatSystems Sports tracks just how well teams shoot freebies in crunch time, providing free-throw percentage in the final five minutes in games decided by five or fewer points – an incredible stat that unveils which teams have ice water in their veins and which teams can’t hit ‘em when they count.

The Thunder top playoff-bound teams with an 85.8 percent clip from the foul line in the last five minutes of games decided by five points or less, which is actually better than their 80.7 free-throw percentage on the season. Other teams cashing in foul shots late into close games are the Trail Blazers (84.4), Atlanta Hawks (83.3), Grizzlies (82.7) and Dallas Mavericks (80.5) – all three shooting better when the pressure is one than their season averages from the foul line.

As for those postseason teams with knocking knees at the stripe in close games, the Brooklyn Nets stand out as the worst crunch-time team at the foul line, shooting just over 70 percent (70.4) in the last five minutes of games decided by five points or less. The Nets shoot 75.4 percent from the line on the year. Behind Brooklyn, in terms of poor foul shooting in the crunch, quiver the Rockets (73.9), Raptors (75.0), and Washington Wizards (75.5).

•Bench Plus/Minus
Being able to depend on your reserves is a huge part of pushing through the postseason. With the grind of intense and physical playoff action coupled with the constant travel, teams can wear down quickly if a series goes six or seven games. Being able to hold the fort while your starters get a blow is crucial come the second season, and no one does that better than the San Antonio Spurs. The NBA’s top team in the regular season boasts an outstanding 8.2 plus/minus when its reserves take the floor. It’s no wonder Gregg Popovich has no problem sitting his stars from time to time.

The Clippers have the second-most steady bench in the Association, with a 7.1 plus/minus. Behind L.A. are the Thunder (6.6), Heat (5.3), Golden State Warriors (4.8), and Rockets (4.7). The thinnest roster heading to the postseason belongs to Atlanta, which has an underperforming bench with a -0.6 plus/minus on the season. The Nets (-0.5), Charlotte Bobcats (-0.3) and Wizards (0.8) also lack production – on both ends of the floor – when they lean on their backups.

•Points Off Turnovers
Defense wins championships, which is why we always see lower scores come playoff time. But a great defense produces easy offense off turnovers, and when points are at a premium, the team that scores with ease will always cover the spread. No one has converted their opponents’ mistakes into layups and dunks like the Nets, who score 19 percent of their total points off turnovers.

Brooklyn averages 8.6 steals and forces 15.9 turnovers per game. The Heat (18.9), Wizards (18.2), and Clippers (18.0) round out the top playoff-bound clubs scoring off turnovers this season. The Trail Blazers, at 13 percent, get the lowest percentage of points off turnovers in the NBA. Portland averages only 12.1 turnovers forced per game and steals the ball 4.8 times an outing. Behind the Blazers sit the Bobcats (14.9), Rockets (15.0) and Spurs (15.9).
_________________________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNERS

5* Toronto Raptors +135 Series

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SweetJones55

Raptors

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 4/19/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Saturday, 4/19/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________________

NBA Playoffs 'Zig-Zag Theory' Works, Depending On The Matchup
In everyday vernacular, zig zagging is an effort to avoid something. However, in betting parlance when one is zig zagging - laying money on a team in a playoff series that had lost the previous game - it means you’ve spotted an opportunity and are heading right for it. The real trick in adhering to this theory is knowing when to zig and when to zag.

“Blindly betting on teams that lost the previous game is not a long-term winning strategy,” explains StatSystemsSports.net Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor. “You have to pick specific situations. Teams that are blown out usually bounce back with a strong effort as their opponent often overlook them, plus the oddsmakers sometimes inflate the lines higher.”

Taylor goes on to extol the virtues of the Class-A teams in these situations like the Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs, and Oklahoma City Thunder and playing money on them after a tough loss. These thoughts are echoed by fellow professional handicapper Larry Hertner, who also believes the perceived competitiveness/non-competiveness of a series has a lot to do with the results and how the lines are set.

“The zig-zag theory does very well in competitive series but tends to fail in less competitive series where one team has a clear advantage over their opponent,” says Larry Hertner. “The zig-zag theory also fails when a team is simply priced incorrectly by the betting marketplace. Bettors got hammered trying to zig-zag against the Mavericks when they won the title, as Rick Carlisle’s squad went 12-1-1 ATS in their first 14 playoff games on their way to the championship.”

In fact, that Mavs run just may have been a sign of a larger trend that has seen any kind of profits made form zig zagging diminish. As Expert James Vogel discovered in his research (looking at results from 1991 to 2013), the overall successful instances of the zig-zag theory playing out dropped from 55.5 percent between 1991 and 2001 to just 51. percent since.

“Like all things that are popular, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm,” Vogel says. “A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the oddsmakers has seen the NBA zig zags go up in smoke since 2001.”

This trend won’t stop professionals like Taylor from looking for opportunities though, seeing particular potential in zig zagging totals this time of year. Bettors can often find value going against misleading or extreme scores – both high and low – when a team suddenly shoots a hot percentage or suffers an uncharacteristic cold night from the floor.

“The oddsmakers often incorrectly adjust totals based on the previous scores in a best-of-7 series and this can lead to value with a zig-zag approach to betting totals,” says Taylor, “especially when the true pace or tempo of a game was actually opposite of what the previous final scores would seem to indicate.” Basketball bettors will get to put the infamous zig-zag theory to the test when the NBA Playoffs tip off Saturday.
__________________________________________________________________

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#701 BROOKLYN @ #702 TORONTO
Tip-Off: Saturday, 12:30 PM EST
Line: Toronto -2.5, Total: 194

The first game of the National Basketball Association playoffs tips off north of the border at Air Canada Centre on Saturday afternoon when the Toronto Raptors host the Brooklyn Nets in Game #1.Toronto came out of nowhere this season and won the Atlantic Division over a heavily favored Brooklyn team. The Raptors finished strong down the stretch with a 9-3 SU mark (4-7-1 ATS) in their final 12 games to secure the No. 3 seed, and played well at home all season with a 26-15 SU record (21-19-1 ATS). The No. 6 seed Nets rebounded from a rough start to find themselves a spot in the playoffs where they can avoid Miami and Indiana in the first round. This franchise hasn't won a postseason series since 2007, but did get some playoff experience in last season's tough seven-game series loss to Chicago in the first round. But Brooklyn played poorly on the road this season at 16-25 SU (18-23 ATS) and is just 15-22 SU (16-19-2 ATS) in Toronto since 1996.

This season, the teams split four games (SU and ATS), including 1-1 (SU and ATS) in each city. The Nets won 102-100 in their first trip north of the border on Nov. 26, but were crushed 96-80 in a return trip on Jan. 11. Both teams have positive betting trends for this game, as Brooklyn is the beneficiary of a *Five-Star StatSystemsSports.net trend of good offensive road teams (98-102 PPG) going 32-5 ATS (87%) over the past five seasons where the line is +3 to -3 and facing a poor defense (98-102 PPG allowed), after allowing 100+ points in two straight games. But the Raptors have a *Four-Star trend of going 15-2 ATS (88%) when coming off a road loss this season. The only injury concern for either team is Toronto PF Amir Johnson, who injured his ankle in the season finale and is questionable to suit up in Game #1.

The Nets had a roller-coaster season, but were happy to end up with the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. While their offense was bad (98.5 PPG, 21st in league) and their rebounding atrocious (minus-4.8 RPG margin, 2nd-worst in NBA), they were a quality defensive team that held opponents to 99.5 PPG (11th in league). PF Kevin Garnett (6.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) has coasted by all season, missing games for rest and minor injuries. Now the big man is healthy and ready to be a leader for a team that rallied around the loss of its starting center Brook Lopez (20.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.8 BPG). In four games against the Raptors this season, SF Paul Pierce (13.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG) was excellent, averaging 19.8 PPG (56% FG, 59% threes) and 4.5 RPG in 30.8 MPG against the team.

He was constantly able to free himself up for three-pointers and his experience is going to help the Nets greatly in this series. Brooklyn, however, will only go as far as PG Deron Williams (14.3 PPG, 6.1 APG) takes them. Williams has dealt with injuries throughout the entirety of his Nets career, but he is still their best player and has a tough matchup at the point guard position with Kyle Lowry. Williams averaged 13.5 PPG and 8.0 APG in two games against the Raptors this season, and will need to be even better if the Nets are going to advance in this series. SG Joe Johnson (15.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG) has been slowed by a calf injury, and will also be counted on to provide a good chunk of offense. In the four meetings with Toronto this season, he averaged a solid 14.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG and 4.0 APG.

The Raptors had an outstanding regular season on both ends of the court, scoring 101.3 PPG (13th in NBA) and allowing 98.0 PPG (7th in league). They should also have a significant advantage on the boards where they outrebounded teams by +1.5 RPG (12th in NBA). Now they turn their attention to a big run in the Eastern Conference playoffs, and will lean mostly on SG DeMar DeRozan (22.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.0 APG) to carry the bulk of the scoring load. In three games against the Nets this season, DeRozan averaged 22.3 PPG on an efficient 50% FG and 56% threes. He has a major mismatch with a slower Joe Johnson likely to be checking him from the opening tip.

PG Kyle Lowry (17.9 PPG, 7.4 APG, 4.7 RPG) had a breakout season for the Raptor, and will need to use his speed and quickness to get the best of a matchup with a slower Deron Williams. In four meetings with the Nets this season, Lowry averaged 22.0 PPG (50% FG, 48% threes), 6.0 APG, 4.8 RPG and 2.3 SPG. One player who must really take his game to the next level is C Jonas Valanciunas (11.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG). The big man averaged 10.3 PPG and 8.8 RPG in just 24.5 MPG in this series, and must find a way to impact the game even when the Nets opt to go with a small-ball lineup.

•BOTTOM LINE: This series will be decided by how well the Nets can frustrate Jonas Valanciunas, since the Raptors are formidable when he stays out of foul trouble and imposes his will. He went for 20 and 13 in Toronto's lone win at Barclays Center this season, but Kevin Garnett is currently feeling spry and can still be one of the league's best agitators and paint defenders. Expect experience to win out as Brooklyn's decision to tank in order to avoid Chicago pays off.

**STATSYSTEMS SPORTS PREDICTION: Nets Win Series 4-2.
__________________________________________________

#705 ATLANTA @ #706 INDIANA
Tip-Off: Saturday, 7:05 PM EST
Line: Indiana -7.5, Total: 186

The Indiana Pacers worked hard to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, and will begin their quest for the franchise's first NBA Championship on Saturday when they host the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta nearly fell out of the playoff picture with six straight losses from March 21-29, but finished the regular season strong with a 7-3 record (SU and ATS) in its final 10 games to clinch the No. 8 seed. Indiana also struggled late in the season with a 2-7 mark (0-9 ATS) from March 22 to April 6, but won three of its final four games (SU and ATS) to capture the top spot in the East. These two clubs also met in the first round of last year's playoffs in the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup, with the Pacers winning the series in six games, including blowout victories in all three home games by 17, 15 and 23 points.

But this season, the teams split four games, including the 8-point underdog Hawks rolling to a shocking 107-88 victory at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in the most recent meeting on April 6. While Atlanta shot 56% FG and 44% threes that night, host Indiana managed shooting clips of 41% FG and 25% threes as the game marked the eighth time in the past nine meetings at this venue where the Over occurred. Both teams have favorable betting trends for the series opener, as the Hawks are 27-10 ATS (73%) on the road in the past three seasons after having won three of their past four games, while the Pacers are 43-28 ATS (61%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past two seasons. There are no new injuries for either team, as Atlanta is still without PF Gustavo Ayon (shoulder), while Indiana is still missing C Andrew Bynum (knee).

The Hawks had an extremely up-and-down season, but finished 15th in the league in both scoring (101.0 PPG) and defense (101.5 PPG allowed) and find themselves playing against a Pacers team that they are confident they can defeat. Atlanta's playoff hopes ride on the shoulders of PF Paul Millsap (17.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG), the team’s only All-Star. Millsap has really struggled against the tough frontcourt of the Pacers this season, averaging just 8.8 PPG (31% FG) and 9.3 RPG in four meetings. He will need to find a way to get himself going offensively or the Hawks will struggle to earn even one win in this series. Another player with the capability of helping Atlanta keep this series competitive is PG Jeff Teague (16.5 PPG, 6.7 APG).

Teague has been hot in the final five games of the season, averaging 17.6 PPG (52% FG, 43% threes) in just 29.0 MPG, but he hasn't been very effective in this season series with a pedestrian 14.3 PPG (45% FG, 25% threes), 4.3 APG and 3.0 TOPG. SF Kyle Korver (12.0 PPG, 47% 3PT) will need to find some holes in the Pacers defense throughout the course of this playoffs series. Korver was great against the Pacers in the regular season though, averaging 14.0 PPG on a blistering 65% FG (10-of-20 threes) with 4.0 RPG and 3.8 APG in 34.3 MPG. Another key to this series could be C Pero Antic (7.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG) who gave the Pacers fits this season with 17.0 PPG on 72% FG with 5.0 RPG in two meetings.

The Pacers achieved their goal of getting home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs due to an excellent defense (92.3 PPG allowed, 2nd in NBA) and a willingness to get on the glass (+3.5 RPG margin, 3rd in league). This helped make up for a poor offense (96.7 PPG, 24th in NBA) that didn't share the ball very well (20.1 APG, 27th in league). The Pacers will need a big series from Paul George (21.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG), who is the team’s only consistent source of offense. Against the Hawks this season, George averaged 22.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 3.3 SPG in 35.8 MPG. If the Pacers are going to advance to the NBA Finals, C Roy Hibbert (10.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.2 BPG) is going to have to wake up. The All-Star averaged just 2.3 PPG and 3.5 RPG in 21.8 MPG over his final four games of the regular season, and didn't do much in the season series versus Atlanta either with a paltry 5.0 PPG on 28% FG and 3.8 RPG in the four meetings.

But Hibbert was a huge part of this offense in the playoffs last season with 17.0 PPG and 9.9 RPG, and if he is not playing well, the Pacers will really struggle to move on. The biggest X-factor in this series is going to be SG Lance Stephenson (13.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 4.6 APG), who played poorly against the Hawks in the regular season, averaging just 8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG and 4.0 APG in 29.7 MPG. PG George Hill (10.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.5 APG) has been slumping to finish the season, scoring just 2.7 PPG (3-of-8 FG) in the final three games. He doesn't have to score all that much versus Atlanta, who he averaged 9.0 PPG and 4.3 APG against during the regular season, but he will really need to concentrate on containing Jeff Teague.

•BOTTOM LINE: Pero Antic's 3-point shooting created huge issues for Indiana last time the teams played, so it's worth wondering whether the matchup woes he creates will keep Roy Hibbert from regaining his rhythm. The Pacers have had their struggles in Atlanta, too, snapping a 12-game regular-season losing streak there in February. This won't be an easy chore.

**STATSYSTEMS SPORTS PREDICTION: Pacers Win Series 4-3.
____________________________________________________

Western Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#703 MEMPHIS @ #704 OKLAHOMA CITY
Tip-Off: Saturday, 9:30 PM EST
Line: Oklahoma City -7, Total: 192.5

A healthy Russell Westbrook will look to help lead the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Memphis Grizzlies when the teams open their postseason on Saturday in a rematch of last season’s Western Conference semifinal series. Oklahoma City appeared ready to make a deep run in the playoffs last season, but star PG Russell Westbrook got hurt. In that series, Memphis was able to focus on Kevin Durant, and knocked the Thunder out in five games. However, it was a very competitive series as every game was decided by six points or less. Oklahoma City was able to get some revenge during the regular season as they took three of the four games in this series, including two straight at home. In the most recent meeting on Feb. 28 at Chesapeake Energy Arena, the Thunder won a high-scoring affair, 113-107, as the teams combined to shoot 50.3% FG and 52.6% threes. Durant scored 37 points in that game, as Oklahoma City had a 16-point lead entering the final quarter before holding off Memphis for the victory.

The Grizzlies (36-43-3 ATS overall) started off very slow this season at 10-15 SU, but closed out with a 23-9 SU mark in their final 32 games, including five straight victories (2-1-2 ATS) to end the regular season. They finished with a winning record on the road at 23-18 SU (19-20-2 ATS). The Thunder (43-38-1 ATS overall) have been tough to beat at home this season (34-7 SU, 23-17-1 ATS), but have not had a great month of April, going 5-4 SU (4-5 ATS). However, the team has been resting Westbrook by not playing him in back-to-back games, so he should be fresh for this postseason. Both clubs have positive betting trends, as Memphis is 25-13 ATS (66%) versus very good teams (6+ PPG margin) over the past two seasons, while Oklahoma City is 14-3 ATS (82%) versus poor pressure defensive teams (14 or less forced TOPG) in the second half of the past two seasons. There are no significant injuries for either team.

The Grizzlies have been on a torrid pace as of late, averaging 105.8 PPG on 52% FG during their five-game win streak. Memphis was just 10-13 without C Marc Gasol (14.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.3 BPG) this season, but is 40-19 (.678) with its big man in uniform. When Gasol is on the floor for the Grizzlies, Memphis has one of the most versatile frontcourts in the NBA. He is one of the best passing centers in the league, and that allows PF Zach Randolph (17.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) to have the one-on-one matchups on the low block. Randolph is not going to wow you with crazy athleticism, but he is a smart player that is relentless when attacking the rim.

Randolph averaged 16.5 PPG and 11.0 RPG during the four meetings with the Thunder during the regular season, but he struggled with his shot, making just 37% FG and 67% FT. But he was a beast against Oklahoma City in the playoffs last season, averaging 18.4 PPG (45% FG) and 10.8 RPG during the five-game series. PG Mike Conley (17.2 PPG, 6.0 APG, 2.9 RPG) set a career-high for points this season, giving the Grizzlies a third scorer they desperately need. He also ran the offense effectively all season, especially against the Thunder, who he averaged 15.0 PPG and 8.3 APG against over three meetings.

Conley's heady play on both ends of the court is a big reason why Memphis ranks third in the NBA in both fewest turnovers (12.9 TOPG) and scoring defense (94.6 PPG allowed). These two stats are huge for a team that at times can struggle to score, ranking 27th in the NBA with only 96.1 PPG. Mike Miller (7.1 PPG, 46% threes) is the only consistent long-range shooter on the team, and he burned Oklahoma City this season for 9.8 PPG on 58% threes (7-of-12). The biggest advantage for the Grizzlies is the fact that they are built to win in the playoffs, where the tempo tends to slow down and possessions become more valuable, so that could play a big role in this series if they are able to slow down the high-powered Thunder.

Oklahoma City is a bit too careless with the ball, averaging 14.8 turnovers per game on the season (5th-worst in NBA). However, that has not prevented the club from scoring, as it ranks fifth in the league in points at 106.2 PPG on an impressive shooting clip of 47.1% FG (6th in NBA) and a solid 36.1% threes (14th in league). Free throws tend to play a big role in the playoffs, and the Thunder rank second in the NBA in this department at 80.6% FT. Compare that to the Grizzlies' 74.1% FT clip (23rd in league), and the Thunder will have a great chance to prevail if it turns into a free-throw contest.

PG Russell Westbrook (21.8 PPG, 6.9 APG, 5.7 RPG) is scary enough when he is playing a normal game. Add the fact that he was unable to play in the playoffs last season against the Grizzlies, and Memphis is going to have to be ready to protect the rim. When Westbrook is able to get some points in transition early, he becomes nearly impossible to slow down, which Memphis witnessed first-hand this season when Westbrook tallied 24.0 PPG (58% FG), 7.5 APG, 4.0 RPG and 2.5 SPG in two meetings. While SF Kevin Durant (32.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG) is the star of the team, Westbrook is the guy that gets both the team and fans into the game.

Durant just wrapped up his fourth scoring title in the past five seasons, including 30.8 PPG (52% FG), 6.0 RPG and 5.0 APG versus Memphis this season. He is too good for anyone to slow down from scoring, but he has become a more complete basketball player. With Westbrook out last season, he put too much pressure to do it on his own, and wound up with 28.8 PPG during the series loss to the Grizzlies, but he shot just 42% FG and 36% threes in the five games. Durant demands such a focus from the defense, and he has done a great job this season of making the extra pass to get a teammate an easy basket with a career-high 5.5 APG.

The team is more prepared for a deep playoff run this season because the bench has been bolstered with players like PG Reggie Jackson (13.1 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3.9 RPG), SF Caron Butler (9.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG) and SG Jeremy Lamb (8.5 PPG) to give the team more scoring from the second unit. Jackson had to play a lot of minutes last postseason when Westbrook went out, and played very well versus Memphis with 13.8 PPG (50% FG), 6.2 RPG and 3.8 APG in the five-game series. PF Serge Ibaka (15.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.7 BPG) has continued to improve on the offensive end, while remaining one of the best shot-blockers in the game. He also held his own against the strong Grizzlies frontcourt this season, averaging 15.0 PPG (51% FG), 9.3 RPG and 2.5 BPG in four meetings.

•BOTTOM LINE: The Grizzlies sought out this matchup as opposed to dealing with the Spurs, so we'll see how they fare in containing Kevin Durant. The likely MVP topped 30 in three of the four meetings against Memphis, but Tayshaun Prince, Tony Allen and long potential x-factor James Johnson are worthy adversaries. Because Marc Gasol is so effective as a defensive anchor and Zach Randolph helps slow the pace down, OKC is going to have to work for everything it gets.

**STATSYSTEMS SPORTS PREDICTION: Thunder Win Series 4-3.
_____________________________________________________

#707 GOLDEN STATE @ #708 LA CLIPPERS
Tip-Off: Saturday, 3:35 PM EST
Line: Los Angeles -7, Total: 211.5

The 2014 playoffs begin for the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Clippers this Saturday afternoon when they meet for Game #1 at Staples Center. Golden State put together an exciting season with the “splash brothers” and eventually finished in sixth place in the Western Conference. The team played well over its final stretch of games, winning five of its last seven SU (6-1 ATS), including 2-1 SU (3-0 ATS) in its last three away games. The Warriors had a strong showing in last year's playoffs as the sixth seed, defeating the Nuggets in six games before giving the Spurs a run for their money, taking the series to six games but eventually faltering to the more experienced and talented team.

Los Angeles really turned it on down the stretch, winning 20 of its final 25 games (15-9-1 ATS) to close the regular season. They have won 7-of-10 games coming into the playoffs with all three losses coming against other Western Conference playoff teams (Dallas, Oklahoma City, Portland). L.A. was the No. 4 seed in last season’s playoffs, but could not overcome the stingy defense of the Grizzlies, and after winning the first two games of the series, the club lost four in a row and was sent home after the first round. Golden State played very well on the road this season, going 24-17 SU while putting together a 23-18 ATS record.

On the other hand, the Clippers were a force at home with a 34-7 SU mark (21-20 ATS) and won their games there by an average of 10.8 PPG. All four games in the season series were won by the home club, with only one game decided by less than 11 points. Los Angeles was 3-1 ATS in the series and rolled to wins of 126-115 and 111-98 when the teams last met on March 12, as the Clippers outshot the Warriors 49% FG to 44% FG. Going back three seasons, Golden State holds the series advantage with a 7-5 record (SU and ATS) against its first round opponent, and the club is also 14-2 ATS after two straight games where both teams scored 100+ points in the past two seasons.

But Los Angeles benefits from the fact that favorites of 3.5 points to 9.5 points with an excellent offense (102+ PPG) versus a poor defense (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205+ points in four straight games are 35-9 ATS (80%) since 1996. Both teams are relatively healthy coming into the playoffs with C Andrew Bogut (ribs) expected to miss the first few games of the series for the Warriors and SF Danny Granger (hamstring) is probable for the Clippers after missing the last nine games of the season.

Golden State once again will play a first-round series against the NBA’s best offense, and will counter with a team that has put up 104.3 PPG (10th in league) this season while hitting 38.0% of its three-pointers (4th in NBA). The Warriors finished out the season by scoring 114.8 PPG (48.1% FG) over their final five games, but allowed their opponents to score 109.2 PPG (44.4% FG) in that time as well. Overall on the season, their defense gave up just 99.5 PPG (10th in NBA) on 43.6% FG (4th in league) and 34.4% threes (3rd in NBA). PG Stephen Curry (24.0 PPG, 8.5 SPG, 1.6 SPG) made more three-point shots (261) than anyone else in the NBA this season and was impressive over his final four games with 33.3 PPG, 9.5 APG, 5.8 RPG and 3.0 SPG before sitting out the final contest for rest.

He was solid against the Clips this season over four games too, averaging 22.0 PPG (53% FG) to go along with 9.5 APG and 4.5 RPG. PF David Lee (18.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG) missed sometime late in the season with a sore hamstring, but came back to look at full strength and shot 12-of-14 from the field for 25 points and nine rebounds in the team’s second-to-last game. Over 24 career games (19 starts) against Los Angeles, Lee has compiled 16.0 PPG (53% FG) and 9.7 RPG. SG Klay Thompson (18.4 PPG, 42% threes) was second in the league with 223 made three-pointers, and he put up 18.8 PPG (47% FG) with 2.0 SPG against the Clippers over four games this season. In 12 playoff games last year, Thompson scored 15.2 PPG (44% FG) while making 42% of his threes.

The Clippers had the league's most prolific offense this season, netting 107.9 PPG, while hitting 47.4% of their shots (3rd in NBA), but only 35.2% threes (22nd in league). The team is scoring even more coming into the playoffs with 111.8 PPG (48.4% FG) over their final five games of the regular season. Their defense was average on the season in terms of points allowed (101.0 PPG, 14th in NBA), but limited opponents to 44.1% FG (5th in league) and an NBA-best 33.2% threes, which is crucial facing such a great long-range shooting team like the Warriors. PG Chris Paul (19.1 PPG, 10.7 APG, 2.5 SPG) had a double-double in each of his past two games, and has averaged 20.9 PPG (48% FG), 9.5 APG, 5.0 RPG and 2.2 SPG over 40 career postseason games.

He was tremendous against the Warriors over three games this season too, compiling 28.0 PPG (47% FG), 12.7 APG and 3.7 SPG. PF Blake Griffin (24.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG) finished off the regular season scoring at least 23 points in each of his last six games played, and averaged a double-double (25.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) with 2.0 SPG in his four contests against Golden State this season. He really struggled in his playoff stint last year against the Grizzlies though, scoring just 13.2 PPG (45% FG) while grabbing only 5.5 RPG in six games. C DeAndre Jordan (10.4 PPG, 13.6 RPG, 2.5 BPG) led the league in shooting this season at 67.6% FG, and did very well against the Warriors this season with 10.3 PPG (64% FG), 15.3 RPG and 3.5 BPG. The team will also count on SG Jamal Crawford (18.6 PPG, 3.2 APG) to contribute more offense than he did last postseason when he scored just 10.8 PPG on 39% FG and 6-of-22 threes (27%).

•BOTTOM LINE: With Andrew Bogut likely out for the entire playoffs and certainly for the length of this series, the Warriors have no answer inside for the Clippers. Stephen Curry is capable of keeping the Warriors in games with his shooting flurries, but keep in mind that Klay Thompson forced Chris Paul to miss seven of his first eight shots in the most recent meeting on March 12 and the Clippers won going away. Blake Griffin should continue his impressive season by helping L.A. control this series.

**STATSYSTEMS SPORTS PREDICTION: Clippers Win Series 4-1.
_____________________________________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

Memphis at Oklahoma City

The Thunder (34-7 at home) open their postseason series Saturday night at Chesapeake Energy Arena against a Memphis team that is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games against a team with a winning home record. Oklahoma City is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7). Here are all of this weekend's playoff picks.

SATURDAY, APRIL 19 Time Posted: 3:00 p.m. EST (4/18)

Game 701-702: Brooklyn at Toronto (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 120.150; Toronto 119.308 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 1; 198 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 194 Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (+2 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: Golden State at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 121.546; LA Clippers 130.664 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 9; 208 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 7; 211 Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-7); Under

Game 705-706: Atlanta at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 114.747; Indiana 124.558 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 10; 182 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 186 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-7 1/2); Under

Game 707-708: Memphis at Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 118.974; Oklahoma City 128.303 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9 1/2; 201 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7; 192 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

rocketman

NBA
4* Toronto -2.5

 

[Lefthandedbob]

Vegas Betting Experts:

Plays 1 - 3 units
No series plays yet


#702 Raptors - 2 1/2


#707 Warriors + 7 1/2


#715 Portland + 5 1/2


#713 Wizards + 5


All one unit


BEST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

King Creole

Dime Pacers -7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi - 2% Raptors -2


: An early glimpse of my NBA Playoff analysis... It's NBA Playoff time, one of my most consistently strong times of the year. I've been in the game for 34 years... with that kind of experience and expertise; I go into it with confidence. Join me right here, with my low NBA Playoff prices the winning will be easy. I do my homework so you don't have to. Experience, Expertise and Hard Work will get it done every time! My Top Saturday games up now! Brooklyn Nets (44-38 SU, 41-40 ATS, -129 AFP) at Toronto Raptors (48-34 SU, 46-34 ATS, +165 AFP) (-2) 12:30 ET ESPN 2* Toronto (-2) Brooklyn micro tanked (thanks for coining a new word ESPN) this week (with losses to the Knicks and Cleveland) in their effort to avoid facing Chicago in round 1. And why not! This is a playoff experienced group of Nets, who will be facing a Toronto team that was just 34-48 last season. As is true with so many things in life, be careful what you wish for. Under 1st year HC Kidd, Brooklyn was underachieving at 10-21 SU the end of December. It took a meeting of the minds for the Nets to pull it together to make the playoffs. Since the inception of 2014, Brooklyn is 34-17 SU, 31-21 ATS. But, that stretch pales in comparison to the late season surge of this Toronto team. Prior to the trade of non-defender, Rudy Gay, Toronto was 7-13 SU. Like clockwork, the departure of Gay added chemistry to an offense led by Lowry and DeRozan. The Raptors finished on a season-ending surge of 41-21 SU, 39-23 ATS. These two split the season series at 2-2, with each winning once on their home court. Though each team lost their season finale, the Raptors have been the more resilient team, standing 22-10 ATS following a defeat. The Brooklyn team has more playoff experience, but the Raptors are the hotter team down the stretch. They laid 7 and 8 points to Brooklyn in the regular season on this court. At the current line, it looks like a bargain. Note that Toronto covered by a net 165 points this year, while Brooklyn failed to the number by a net of 129 points. Looks like perception/reality to me!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's NBA playoffs betting news and notes

Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors (-2.5, 194)

The Nets' starters boast a combined 399 career playoff games, while there are three playoff rookies - guard DeMar DeRozan, forward Terrence Ross and center Jonas Valanciunas - among the Raptors' first five. The teams split four meetings this season, with each squad going 1-1 on its home floor and three of the four games decided by four points or fewer.

After a slow start and a notable trade that sent swingman Rudy Gay to Sacramento, Toronto went 42-22 over the final four-plus months of the season to record a franchise record in victories and storm to the Atlantic Division crown - its first since 2006-07. DeRozan and point guard Kyle Lowry were the catalysts all season for Toronto, combining to average 40.6 points and 11.4 assists and stepping up their games against Brooklyn; DeRozan averaged 22.3 points and Lowry 22 points versus the Nets.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Toronto.
* Home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
* Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.


Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (-7, 211)

The Golden State Warriors went into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed last season and knocked off the third-seeded Denver Nuggets. They will be attempting to turn the same trick again this spring, though the competition will be different when the Warriors visit the third-seeded Los Angeles Clippers. Golden State and Los Angeles did not get along very well during the regular season, and Warriors guard Klay Thompson continued the war of words this week by talking about Clippers All-Star forward Blake Griffin. “He’s kind of like a bull in a china shop, kind of out of control sometimes,” Thompson told 95.7 The Game radio in San Francisco. “And then you do just see him flop sometimes, like how can a guy that big and strong flop that much?”

The Clippers are primed for a deep playoff run and brought in coach Doc Rivers in part for his experience in the postseason. Rivers is the biggest change from last spring, when Los Angeles dropped a first-round series to the Memphis Grizzlies under Vinny Del Negro, but he is not the only difference. The Clippers led the league in scoring and became a defensive force as the season progressed and DeAndre Jordan grew more comfortable with his role as an enforcer and rim protector. Clippers G Chris Paul averaged 28 points, 12.7 assists and 3.7 steals in three games against Golden State this season.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Warriors are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Under is 9-3-1 in Clippers last 13 home games.


Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (-7.5, 186)

Atlanta was 10 games under .500 on April 3 before closing with six wins in the last eight games, including a 107-88 drubbing of the Pacers in Indiana on April 6. The Hawks bowed out in six games in the first round to the Pacers last season, dropping the final two games after evening the series with a pair of home victories. Atlanta doesn’t have Al Horford this time around but does have All-Star Paul Millsap. Atlanta can spread the floor with its frontcourt rotation of Millsap, Pero Antic, DeMarre Carroll and Mike Scott, and all five in the starting lineup are capable of stepping out and hitting 3-pointers.

The Pacers went 10-13 over the last six weeks of the season, briefly dropping out of the top spot in the East before winning three of four to close things out and top the Heat by two games. Indiana’s slump came after trading away veteran Danny Granger and signing mercurial center Andrew Bynum, and downturns in production from Roy Hibbert and Paul George didn’t help. Hibbert averaged 17 points and 9.9 rebounds in the playoffs last spring and the Pacers are counting on him to carry a heavy load again. Hibbert averaged five points on 28.1 percent shooting and 3.8 rebounds in the four games against the Hawks.

TRENDS:

* Over is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings in Indiana.
* Favorite is 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings.
* Pacers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Conference Quarterfinals games.


Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder (-7, 192.5)

The Memphis Grizzlies eliminated an Oklahoma City team missing Russell Westbrook from last season’s playoffs and take aim at stunning the Thunder again when the first-round series opens in Oklahoma City on Saturday. The trio of Gasol, power forward Zach Randolph and point guard Mike Conley are used to waging battle with the Thunder, having surprisingly taken Oklahoma City to seven games in the 2011 conference semifinals before last season’s impressive series victory.

The Thunder posted the NBA’s second-best record despite Westbrook missing 36 games due to his balky knee and are expecting the first-round series to be quite a tussle. “It’s going to be a tough but fun series,” Kevin Durant told reporters. “We have a lot of history with these guys. We’re looking forward to getting the opportunity to play for a championship.” Durant is the favorite to win NBA MVP honors after leading the league in scoring with a 32-point average, the highest since Kobe Bryant averaged 35.4 points for the Lakers in 2005-06.

TRENDS:

* Grizzlies are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in Thunder's last six Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last five Conference Quarterfinals games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's playoff prop bets
By ANDREW AVERY

Spice up the opening day of the NBA postseason with Playoff Proposition bets.

Below is a list of game props courtesy of the LVH SuperBook:

NETS at RAPTORS - GAME 1

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM

OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS

OVER 15.5 -120
UNDER 15.5 EVEN

TOTAL POINTS BY: DERON WILLIAMS (BRK)

OVER 15.5 -110
UNDER 15.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: DEMAR DEROZAN (TOR)

OVER 22.5 -110
UNDER 22.5 -110


GRIZZLIES at THUNDER - GAME 1

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM

OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS

OVER 13.0 -110
UNDER 13.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: MIKE CONLEY (MEM)

OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: KEVIN DURANT (OKC)

OVER 32.5 -110
UNDER 32.5 -110


HAWKS at PACERS - GAME 1

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM

OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS

OVER 15.0 -110
UNDER 15.0 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: PAUL GEORGE (IND)

OVER 21.5 -110
UNDER 21.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: DAVID WEST (IND)

OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110


WARRIORS at CLIPPERS - GAME 1

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM

OVER 17.5 -110
UNDER 17.5 -110

TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS

OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: STEPHEN CURRY (GS)

OVER 25.5 -110
UNDER 25.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: BLAKE GRIFFIN (LAC)

OVER 24.5 -110
UNDER 24.5 -110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawks and Pacers historically go over low totals
By JUSTIN HARTLING

The Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers are not known for incredibly high-scoring affairs, but they have been a solid over play when they meet.

In the past 13 meetings between the Hawks and Pacers, the two teams have gone Over nine times. However, the offense flows even better when they meet in Indiana. The last 17 games in the Bankers Life Fieldhouse the Pacers and Hawks have an O/U record of 13-3-1.

The four contests this season have had an average score of 189.75 points per game, which is merely 1.5-points higher than the current line of 186 for Saturday.



Clippers/Warriors high octane offense getting top total

The L.A. Clippers and Golden State Warriors are getting the highest total of any game in Saturday's NBA slate. The Clippers and Warriors current total of 211, is 17 points higher than the second highest total Saturday.

The Clippers have broken the triple-digit mark in their last 10 games and have given up triple-digit points in nine of those 10 - only the Lakers failed and they totaled 98. On the other side of the court, the Warriors have put away 110 plus-points in their last four, and five of their last six. During that stretch, the Warriors have also tallied 130-points two times.

In their four contests this season, the Clippers and Warriors average 215.25 points per game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's NHL playoffs betting news and notes

Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues (-103, 5)

In the minds of many, the St. Louis Blues went from the penthouse to the outhouse in record time as they concluded the regular season mired in a six-game losing streak. After winning a triple-overtime marathon in the first-round series opener, the Blues look to elevate their standing once again when they host Game 2 against the reigning Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks on Saturday afternoon. Alex Steen scored 26 seconds into the third extra session as St. Louis skated to a 4-3 triumph on Thursday in the longest game in franchise history.

Patrick Kane and captain Jonathan Toews made triumphant returns for Chicago, as the former scored on a breakaway late in the first period after being set up by latter. The reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner, Kane overcame a left knee injury to play in his first game since March 19, while Toews competed in his initial contest since being leveled by Pittsburgh's Brooks Orpik. Chicago D Duncan Keith logged 40:59 of ice time on Thursday, the second-longest total of his career. He set a career high of 48:40 against Boston in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final last season.

TRENDS:

* Blackhawks are 2-5 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in Blues last six home games.
* Blackhawks are 1-8 in their last nine road games.


Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins (-185, 5.5)

Although putting a scare into their opposition, the Columbus Blue Jackets still haven't proven they can defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins this season. "I have to be better. Four goals is a lot, but it's already past me," said reigning Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky, who owns an 0-3 career mark in postseason play with a gaudy 4.04 goals-against average. The Blue Jackets have lost all five of their postseason games in franchise history.

Kris Letang struggled mightily in Game 1 as the defenseman's turnover led to Derek MacKenzie's short-handed goal while a retaliatory slash gave Columbus a power play. Coach Dan Bylsma was not pleased and limited Letang's ice time accordingly (3:55 in the third period). "I think he got a message," Bylsma said. "Whether it was a voice or not playing or a nice talk, he got a message. And that's something he’s got to be better at and that’s something we've got to be better at as a group."

TRENDS:

* Blue Jackets are 0-7 in the last seven meetings.
* Penguins are 4-1 in their last five Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 18-7-2 in Penguins last 27 Conference Quarterfinals games.


Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche (-139, 5)

Zach Parise recorded his 12th career multi-point playoff performance with a pair of assists on Thursday. The veteran has collected 46 points in 67 career postseason games. Haula practiced with Matt Cooke and Nino Niederreiter on the third line Friday while Brodziak was moved to the fourth line with Stephane Veilleux and Cody McCormick.

Paul Stastny made history in the series opener, becoming the first player in NHL playoff history to score the tying goal in the last 15 seconds of regulation and the winner in overtime. Colorado entered the third period in a 4-2 hole but began to climb out when Jamie McGinn scored at 7:13. Stastny took over from there, knotting the contest with 13.4 seconds remaining before completing the comeback 7:27 into the extra session.

TRENDS:

* Wild are 1-5 in the last six meetings.
* Wild are 1-8 in their last nine Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Under is 8-3 in Avalanche last 11 overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Saturday's American League games:

Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians (-113, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Blue Jays left-hander Mark Buehrle has allowed just two runs through his first 21 innings this season.

Hot batting stat: Indians third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall is 3-for-8 with two home runs lifetime against Buehrle.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with clear skies and wind blowing in from right-center field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 23-5-1 in Buehrle's previous 29 starts.

Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers (-153, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his first three starts.

Hot batting stat: Detroit outfielder Torii Hunger is 11-for-33 with two homers and 10 walks versus Angels starter C.J. Wilson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing in from left field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Los Angeles is 7-1 in Wilson's previous eight road starts.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-137, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Boston is 5-1 in starter Felix Doubront's last six turns on five days rest.

Cold batting stat: Orioles outfielder Adam Jones and catcher Matt Wieters are a combined 4-for-37 with 18 strikeouts against Doubront.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 5-1 in Doubront's last six starts versus Baltimore.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (-145, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Royals left-hander Bruce Chen was tagged for six runs on seven hits over 3 2/3 innings in his previous outing.

Hot batting stat: Twins outfielder Jason Kubel is 7-for-16 with a homer in his career versus Chen.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing to left field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: Minnesota is 1-11 in starter Kevin Correia's last 12 outings following a quality start in his previous appearance.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics (-205, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Athletics left-hander Scott Kazmir has limited opponents to a .159 batting average through three starts.

Hot batting stat: Astros second baseman Jose Altuve is 3-for-6 in his career against Kazmir.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under sunny skies with wind blowing out to right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Houston has lost each of starter Aaron Oberholtzer's last seven outings.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-130, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rays right-hander Chris Archer went 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in three starts against New York last season.

Cold batting stat: Tampa Bay infielder Yunel Escobar has just two hits in 21 at-bats versus Yankees starter Ivan Nova.

Weather: N/A

Key betting note: New York is 7-1 in Nova's previous eight Saturday starts.

Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers (-108, 9.5)

Hot pitching stat: White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana has allowed two or fewer runs in all three of his starts in 2014.

Cold batting stat: Rangers first baseman Prince Fielder is 2-for-11 lifetime versus Quintana.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 10-3 in Quintana's last 13 starts.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of10:04 p.m. ET Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Saturday's National League games:

St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-114, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn struck out 11 over seven scoreless innings in his last start.

Hot batting stat: St. Louis catcher Yadier Molina is 6-for-14 with three RBIs against Nationals starter Jordan Zimmermann.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing in from right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Washington is 21-6 in Zimmermann's last 27 home starts.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (131, OFF)

Hot pitching stat: Reds left-hander Tony Cingrani has limited opponents to a .193 batting average in his career.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Chicago roster are batting a combined .175 in 40 at-bats versus Cingrani.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with sunny skies and wind blowing from right to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: The Cubs are 0-6 in Edwin Jackson's last six starts on five days rest.

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates (102, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Pirates left-hander Wandy Rodriguez has surrendered 13 runs over 16 innings in 2014.

Hot batting stat: Milwaukee outfielder Ryan Braun is hitting .383 with four home runs and 11 RBIs in 47 at-bats versus Rodriguez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under clear skies with wind blowing from left to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 4-1 in Rodriguez's last five starts against Milwaukee.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (115, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Braves right-hander Ervin Santana has allowed one run while striking out 17 over his first two starts.

Cold batting stat: Members of the New York roster are batting .211 in 90 at-bats against Santana.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies and wind blowing in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Atlanta has won the second game of a series 19 of the past 26 times.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-190, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers right-hander Dan Haren defeated his former team last Sunday, scattering three runs over 5 2/3 innings.

Hot batting stat: Arizona second baseman Aaron Hill is batting .320 with a homer in 25 at-bats versus Haren.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under clear skies with wind blowing out to right-center field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 5-0-1 in Arizona's last six in the second game of a series.

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (-151, 10)

Cold pitching stat: Phillies right-hander Kyle Kendrick surrendered 11 runs on 18 hits in 9 1/3 innings against Colorado in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has five hits in 13 lifetime at-bats against Kendrick.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with a 23 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind blowing in from right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 9-1 in Kendrick's last 10 road starts versus teams with losing records.

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (117, 6.5)

Cold pitching stat: Giants right-hander Tim Hudson was 4-7 with a 4.86 ERA in 12 road starts in 2013.

Hot batting stat: San Francisco third baseman Pablo Sandoval is 12-for-22 in his career against Padres left-hander Eric Stults.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: San Diego is 14-5 in Stults' last 19 home starts.

Interleague

Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins (+107, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Marlins right-hander Henderson Alvarez is allowing opposing hitters to bat .385 against him through three starts.

Hot batting stat: Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano is 6-for-11 with two homers and five RBIs against Alvarez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: Miami has won its last seven home games against a left-handed starter.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 10:00 p.m. ET Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB roundup: Pirates land 1B Davis from Mets
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

After trying throughout the winter and spring training to add a left-handed hitting first baseman, the Pittsburgh Pirates got their man on Friday as they acquired Ike Davis from the New York Mets.

The Pirates traded minor-league reliever Zack Thornton and a player to be named for Davis. The 27-year-old was hitting .208 with one home run and five RBIs in 12 games.

The Pirates are hoping Davis can regain his form of two years ago when he hit 32 home runs and had 90 RBIs. Last year, he batted just .204 with nine homers in 103 games before his season ended Aug. 31 with a right oblique strain.

The Mets assigned Thornton to their Triple-A Las Vegas farm club. Thornton, 25, was 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in four games with Triple-A Indianapolis.

---Los Angeles Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said he is concerned about right fielder Yasiel Puig over reports that he has receiving death threats since joining the team last year.

Los Angeles Magazine and ESPN The Magazine published feature stories on Puig this week detailing his escape from Cuba. According to the reports, the threats were a result of friction between rival groups that helped Puig leave the island and whether they should share in the $42 million contract he signed with the Dodgers.

Puig and the Dodgers' front office are not commenting, but Mattingly said, "If you care about Yasiel, you worry about it. There's some serious stuff that he has to deal with. I think you have to worry about it if you care about him as a person. You worry about what he's going through."

---New York Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira is set to come off the 15-day disabled list on Sunday, according to MLB.com.

Teixeira has been on the DL with a strained right hamstring. He last played April 4. If he is activated Sunday for a game against the Tampa Bay Rays, that means he spent the minimum required amount of the time on the 15-day DL. He played three innings of minor-league extended spring training session on Thursday.

---The Texas Rangers placed struggling pitcher Tanner Scheppers on the 15-day disabled list Friday with inflammation in his right elbow.

An MRI found no structural damage, but Scheppers will rest his arm for 10 days, MLB.com reported. Texas' Opening Day starter has posted an 0-1 record with a 9.82 ERA in four outings. He has given up 20 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings.

The Rangers purchased the contract of left-hander Aaron Poreda to fill Scheppers' spot on the pitching staff and designated infielder Andy Parrino for assignment to make room on the team's 40-man roster.

---The Oakland Athletics signed left-handed reliever Sean Doolittle to a five-year contract on Friday that includes club options for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Financial terms were not disclosed, but the deal begins with the 2014 season and extends through 2018. Doolittle's previous one-year contract was worth $505,000 in the majors and $295,500 in the minors. He would have been eligible for arbitration for the first time next winter.

The 27-year-old Doolittle is a converted first baseman, making the switch near the end of the 2011 season, and he has proved effective out of the bullpen for the A's. In the 2012 and 2013 seasons, he posted a 7-6 record with a 3.10 ERA, four saves and 129 strikeouts in 122 relief outings. This year, he has a 0-0 record with a 3.12 ERA and one save in eight appearances.

---Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman has been cleared to pitch batting practice for the first time since he was hit in the face by a line drive during an exhibition game on March 10.

The left-hander sustained fractures of his nose and a bone above his left eye when hit by a line drive off the bat of Salvador Perez of the Kansas City Royals.

Reds manager Bryan Price said he was not sure exactly when Chapman will pitch for the first time, but added that it probably will come during the Reds' 10-game trip that ends April 27. He added that Chapman will go on a minor league rehab assignment before rejoining the Reds.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Andre Gomes - 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on BetOnline

This should be a fun series to watch w/ plenty of tight games and (hopefully) w/ game 6 and/or game 7 on the horizon.

For the first contest I really think that we have some edge w/ the Under as my fair line in here is 190/192 points.

Note that in this series, we will deal w/ half court battle. In the regular season, TOR was ranked #23 in Pace Factor & BKN = ranked #25! 3 of the 4 H2H's games between these two teams were slow paced contests, so we can expect this trend to keep going in this series.

BKN's offense will have some problems vs. TOR's underrated defense! TOR is a top 10 team in not committing TO's (ranked #9 in the regular season) and this could be a problem for a BKN defense that is great in creating TO's and convert those TO's w/ a pretty decent transition offense. Also, Amir Johnson & Patrick Patterson are quick and mobile "bigs", so BKN's undersized lineup won't have the usual edge that they are used to have vs. traditional frontcourt units.

On the other side, this Raptors team doesn't have much experience @ playoffs, and this first contest could be a tough mental spot for them. Note that we are dealing w/ a team that takes a ton of mid range jumpers…

BKN will have S. Livingston back and also K. Garnett could play some significant minutes as well - an obvious boost for their defense!

The correlation of all these factors = Single Dime Play w/ Under!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

NBA - Series bet
TORONTO +136 over Brooklyn

Saturday, April 18, 12:35 PM EST. Frankly, it’s ludicrous that the Nets are favored in this series against the higher-seeded Raptors and regardless of outcome we’re absolutely going with the best of it here. Since trading Rudy Gay to the Kings in December, the Raptors are 41-22 - the best record in the Eastern Conference over that span. The breakout backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan poses all sorts of problems for opponents. Dwayne Casey's team takes care of the ball, ranking 10th in turnover percentage. Up front, big man Jonas Valanciunas can control the boards, and his late-season surge (18 points and 11.7 rebounds per game in April) suggests that he could be a scoring factor down low, too. Overall, balance is the strength of Toronto's game. The Raptors were the only team in the East to rank in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency.

It's been a tale of two seasons for the Nets. Entering January, the Nets were 10-21 and one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA after their offseason acquisitions of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. But the New Year brought new life to Brooklyn. The Nets have posted the second-best winning percentage in the East since Jan. 1 (.667, 34-17), largely on the strength of a new small-ball style, an approach that gave the Raptors fits in their most recent game. Brooklyn's experience can't be underrated. Nets players have started a combined 417 postseason games, compiling more than 17,000 playoff minutes. Pierce and Garnett each boast NBA titles, and Deron Williams and Joe Johnson understand the pressure of the NBA's largest stage as well. In a close game, Kidd knows he has players who can hit big shots. Can Casey say the same? No, he can’t but the Raps won’t be fazed by this stage. The Raps have a huge edge in depth and rebounding (Brooklyn ranked 29th in rebounding) and that’s significant in any game or series.

The Nets have been saying all the right things about their actions over the final few games of the regular season, insisting they were focused on rest, not playoff positioning. After Brooklyn lost four of its final five regular-season games to fall out of the fifth seed — and a meeting with playoff-tested Chicago — and into sixth and a matchup with inexperienced Toronto, the phrase “tanked on purpose” has been used repeatedly. No question the Raptors are aware of the Nets tanking in order to face them instead of Chicago so this is a very unique situation. You have a third seed who’s really good and you a have team that was trying to lose to get to them. That move not only isn’t wise but it’ll motivate the Raps even more.

Lastly, and we hate to bring this up but it’s an issue that must be stated. Our one big concern here is the manipulation of the NBA to get playoff matches that attract big audiences. In that respect, you can’t expect the referees to be helping out Toronto in any way. In other words, don’t expect the calls to go in Toronto’s favor. The NBA would hate to see Toronto advance because TV audiences in the US would diminish drastically. It’s for that reason we are not betting more on Toronto. We hope we’re wrong but we doubt it. Still, the value is on the Raps because they should not be a pooch with home court advantage against an inferior opponent.

Our Pick TORONTO +136 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.72)