STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/8/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 2/8/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Saturday's Notebook
•Texas (-5.5) beat Kansas State 67-64 Jan 21 in Austin, just second win in last eight series games- they outscored Wildcats 12-6 over last 4:31 in brickfest where teams combined to make 7-28 from arc. Wildcats are 4-0 at home in league, 2-1 as favorites, winning by 3-6-22-8 points. Texas is 0-3 in last three visits here, losing by 9-4-26 points. Big X home teams are 8-6 versus spread in games with spread of less than 5 points.
•Michigan (-2.5) beat Iowa 75-67 Jan 22, game that started Hawkeyes on current 2-3 skid; Wolverines won eight of last nine games with Iowa, are 3-2 in last five visits here, losing by 16 LY. Iowa is 2-3 as home favorite, losing last two at home SU to Michigan State/Ohio State. Michigan won four of five Big Dozen road games, losing only at Indiana. Big Dozen home favorites of 4+ points are 12-19 versus spread.
•Kansas swept West Virginia by 5-26 points LY, beating WVU 91-65 at home in Mountaineers' first year in Big X; Jayhawks are 2-1-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 26-2-10-11 points. Big X double digit home favorites are 3-6 versus spread. West Virginia won last three games, is 2-1 as road dog (3-2 SU on road), losing away games at K-State by 22, at Oklahoma State by 6- they covered last four games overall.
•Saint Louis is 9-0 in A-13, winning road games by 1-8-4-16 points; they are 1-1 as road favorites. LaSalle lost four of last five games, but is 3-1 at home in league, losing to VCU in double OT; Explorers lost last three games versus Saint Louis by 8-7-24 points. Billikens won their last 15 games overall, their three visits to LaSalle. A-13 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-7 against the spread.
•Oregon lost seven of last nine games, with last four losses all by 4 or less points; Ducks are 2-4 on Pac-12 road, 1-1 as road dogs- they won last three games with Arizona State by 7-9-3 points, but lost last three trips to Tempe, by 18-10-20 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-4 versus spread. ASU won four of last five games with last two wins in OT; Sun Devils won last four games by 19-4-21-4 points.
•Ole Miss won two of three versus Missouri LY in Tigers' first year in SEC, nipping Tigers 64-62 in SEC tourney; Rebels are 2-2 as SEC favorites at home, winning all four games by 3-14-19-4 points. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-3 versus spread. Missouri is 2-1 as road dogs, losing three of last four away games by 3-6-10 points. Tigers lost their last two games, Rebels lost two of last three, with both losses on road.
•Cincinnati (-7.5) beat SMU 65-57 in AAC opener Jan 1, outscoring the Mustangs 23-8 on foul line, with +9 (17-8) turnover ratio. Bearcats won last 15 games, are 11-0 in AAC, 2-0 as road dogs, winning at Memphis, Louisville. SMU won six of its last seven games, is 5-0 as a AAC home favorite, winning its home games by 9-17-14-15-23 points. AAC home favorites of less than 5 points are 5-2 versus spread.
•St Joe's is playing only six guys due to injuries; in last 10:00 of last three games, they've been outscored by 6-7-12 points, will be hard for them to hang with pressing VCU squad for 40:00 here. Hawks are 3-1 at home in league, losing last game to Saint Louis by 18. VCU won last six games, covered four of last five; they're 2-1 on A-13 road, losing at GW. A-13 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-7 versus spread.
•Minnesota lost last three games, losing in triple OT at Purdue three days ago; Gophers are 3-2 in conference home games, with underdogs 5-0 versus spread in those games- Minnesota is 0-3 as home favorite, winning by 3-10-13 points. Indiana is 1-1-1 as road dog, losing three of four road tilts, by 3-5-5 points. Both teams are now bubble teams; this is a bigger game than it looks. Big Dozen home favorites of 4+ points are 12-19.
•Wichita State (-11.5) beat Northern Iowa 67-53 at home Jan 5, after it trailed 12-2 early; Shockers are 4-1 as road favorites, winning on road by 15-3-15-17-7 points. Panthers lost four of last five games, covered one of last seven; they're 4-1 SU at home in Valley, losing last home game by six to Indiana State. UNI is 5-6 SU in Valley despite being dog once. MVC home teams are 17-8-1 in games where spread was 5+ points.
•Memphis won four of last five games but did lose two home games in January (Cincinnati/Connecticut); they won 62-58 at Gonzaga last time they played Zags, three years ago. Tigers are making 38.2% of 3-pointers in AAC games. Gonzaga blew 17-point halftime lead to Portland at home in last game, held Pilots off by 5 for their 7th win in row. Bulldogs won five of seven games versus top 100 teams, losing to Dayton/Kansas State.
•San Diego State swept Nevada by 21-13 points LY in Wolf Pack's first year in Mountain West. Aztecs are 1-3 as home favorite, winning by 3-8-11-9 points- they won last game at Boise State with big comeback in last 11:00. Nevada covered four of last five games, is 4-1 as MW road dog, losing last two road games by 2-8 points- three of their last five games went OT. MW double digit home favorites are 5-9 versus spread.
•UCLA (-12) blasted USC 107-73 in first meeting Jan 5, Bruins' 6th win in last seven series games- they won last two visits in Galen Center by 16-19 points. Trojans are 1-8 in Pac-12 but covered three of last four- they're 1-3 as home underdogs, losing by 19-20-8, with an upset of Cal. Pac-12 home underdogs are 11-8 versus spread. UCLA split its four away games in league, winning by 13-2-- underdogs were 3-0 versus spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
--FLORIDA is 24-4 ATS (+19.6 Units) after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 22 or more fouls since 1997.
The average score was FLORIDA 84.6, OPPONENT 68.1.
-- VIRGINIA TECH is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 62.2, OPPONENT 66.9.
-- MISSISSIPPI ST is 3-16 against the 1rst half line (-14.6 Units) as an underdog of 6 or more points vs. the first half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 24.6, OPPONENT 38.6.
-- S FLORIDA is 14-0 UNDER (+14.0 Units) the 1rst half total off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 22.7, OPPONENT 24.7.
-- LON KRUGER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games after playing 4 consecutive games as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was KRUGER 70.6, OPPONENT 68.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% since 1997.
The average score was BOSTON COLLEGE 76.3, OPPONENT 68.9.
-- NEVADA is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEVADA 66.5, OPPONENT 74.6.
-- TEXAS is 14-3 against the 1rst half line (+10.7 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was TEXAS 37.1, OPPONENT 31.1.
-- MOREHEAD ST is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% this season.
The average score was MOREHEAD ST 32.6, OPPONENT 29.5.
-- JAMES JOHNSON is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% as the coach of VIRGINIA TECH.
The average score was JOHNSON 63.6, OPPONENT 76.9.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road underdogs versus the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(199-54 since 1997.) (78.7%, +101.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -180
The average score in these games was: Team 72.2, Opponent 65 (Average point differential = +7.2)
The situation's record this season is: (32-10, +11 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (70-22, +27.5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (110-30, +54.2 units).
-- Play On - Road teams as an underdog or pick (WASHINGTON ST) - poor offensive team - scoring <=64 points/game, in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32%-36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game making 13 or more 3 point shots.
(32-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (19-20 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.3
The average score in these games was: Team 66.8, Opponent 67.4 (Average point differential = -0.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (42.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (53-40).
-- Play Against - Any team (WEBER ST) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an excellent shooting team (>=47.5%), revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite.
(32-7 since 1997.) (82.1%, +24.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (32-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 7.1
The average score in these games was: Team 72.9, Opponent 60.6 (Average point differential = +12.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (43.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 6 to 11 points versus the first half line (KANSAS) - dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game, off a road win against a conference rival against opponent after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival.
(27-5 since 1997.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.9, Opponent 34.7 (Average first half point differential = -2.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
-- Play Against - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher.
(29-6 since 1997.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.1, Opponent 30.6 (Average first half point differential = +3.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
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Saturday's Match-ups
#517 VIRGINIA @ #518 GEORGIA TECH
(TV: Noon EST, ACC Network, ESPN3 - Line: 7, Total: N/A) - Virginia has answered any doubts of its ability to compete for the ACC title since a four-point loss at Duke last month by winning its past six games. The No. 21 Cavaliers play Saturday at struggling Georgia Tech, looking to remain one game behind unbeaten and top-ranked Syracuse in the race for the conference lead after dispatching Boston College 77-67 at home Wednesday - three days after upsetting Pittsburgh. The biggest question surrounding the Yellow Jackets is will they have enough healthy bodies to finish the season, playing with seven scholarship players in Tuesday’s 45-41 loss at Clemson.
Georgia Tech played Tuesday without leading scorer Trae Golden, out with a pulled groin, earlier lost Robert Carter Jr., Jason Morris and Travis Jorgenson to season-ending injuries, and dismissed Solomon Poole from the squad Monday. Tuesday’s loss was the fifth in the Yellow Jackets’ past seven games. Suffocating defense has marked Virginia’s surge toward the top of the ACC as the Cavaliers are second in the country (and in the ACC to Clemson) in allowing 56 points per game.
•ABOUT VIRGINIA (18-5 SU, 12-7-0 ATS, 9-1 ACC): The Cavaliers’ success is sparked by a defense that holds opponents to 38.2 percent shooting from the field and has held ACC opposition to less than 50 percent from the field in 26 consecutive games. Malcolm Brogdon has played particularly well on offense of late, averaging 16.8 points in his past four contests. Virginia won by double digits in 11 of its past 12 victories, with the upset of Pittsburgh the lone close win.
•ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (12-11 SU, 9-8-0 ATS, 3-7 ACC): Senior center Daniel Miller is one of the hottest players in the ACC, averaging 16.8 points and 9.8 rebounds in his past four games with a pair of 14-rebound efforts. The Yellow Jackets are very thin at guard without Golden, and sophomore Marcus Georges-Hunt didn’t help matters Tuesday by shooting 1-for-13 from the field. Saturday’s game opens a three-game homestand for Georgia Tech, which still has to face Duke at home and travel to top-ranked Syracuse.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Cavaliers are off to their best start in ACC play since 1981-82, when Virginia won 12 of its first 13 conference contests.... Golden is eighth in scoring in ACC games at 15.3, and had averaged 21 points in his past three games before being hurt after eight minutes against Wake Forest on Feb. 1.... The Yellow Jackets lead the series 39-35, but Virginia has won six of the past seven meetings.... The Cavaliers are 6-0 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.... Georgia Tech is 5-15 against the spread after covering two of their last three against the spread over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA TECH covered the spread 532 times, while VIRGINIA covered the spread 443 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA won the game straight up 656 times, while GEORGIA TECH won 315 times. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA TECH covered the first half line 530 times, while VIRGINIA covered the first half line 470 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GEORGIA TECH is 18-10 against the spread versus VIRGINIA since 1997.
--GEORGIA TECH is 17-11 straight up against VIRGINIA since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--GEORGIA TECH is 18-10 versus the first half line when playing against VIRGINIA since 1997.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UVA is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--UVA is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 Sat. games.
--UVA is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--GT is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--GT is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Over is 7-1 in GT L8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
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#521 VIRGINIA TECH @ #522 PITTSBURGH
(TV: Noon EST, Root Sports (Pittsburgh), Regional Sports Network, ESPN3 - Line: Pittsburgh -20, Total: N/A) - As a showdown with top-ranked Syracuse looms, Pittsburgh must be careful not to look past Saturday afternoon's tilt with visiting Virginia Tech. With the sting of a five-point loss to the Orange three weeks ago still fresh in their minds, the No. 22 Panthers come into weekend action fresh off a thrilling 59-55 overtime triumph over Miami. The Hokies have lost nine consecutive games and are 1-9 in ACC play.
Lamar Patterson was the hero for Pittsburgh in what was supposed to be a slightly easier go of it in Miami. He scored 10 of his team-high 25 points in the extra period to help the Panthers bounce back from consecutive home losses to Duke and Virginia. "Being a senior leader I didn't want to just become a ghost when it came to overtime," Patterson told the school web site. "My team looked to me and I just wanted to come through for them."
•ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (8-14 SU, 6-11-0 ATS, 1-9 ACC): In fairness to the Hokies, they kept the outcomes close following their 72-52 loss to Syracuse on Jan. 7; each of their next four defeats came by fewer than eight points. That all changed Jan. 25 at John Paul Jones Arena, when Virginia Tech was squashed 70-50 by host Virginia to kick off a stretch of four straight defeats by 20 or more points. Part of the Hokies' problem: a major lack of efficiency, with each of their top three scorers - swingman Jarell Eddie and guards Ben Emelogu and Adam Smith - shooting less than 40 percent from the floor.
•ABOUT PITTSBURGH (19-4 SU, 7-12-1 ATS, 7-3 ACC): The Panthers do many things well at both ends of the floor, but passes that lead to baskets have been their specialty. Pittsburgh is 19th nationally in assists per game (16.1), with Patterson (4.4) and guard James Robinson (four) taking on an active role in that regard. Patterson has been one of the most well-rounded players in the conference, averaging 17.7 points and 4.7 rebounds while shooting 43 percent from beyond the arc and just below 80 percent from the free-throw line.
•PREGAME NOTES: Pittsburgh's average margin of victory is 13.4 points.... Eddie is shooting a combined 3-of-22 from the field over his past two games, including 1-of-12 from 3-point range.... Patterson's next field goal will move him past Curtis Aiken (1,201) for fifth on the Panthers' all-time scoring list.... Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% this season.... Pittsburgh is 15-5 versus the spread when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) after 15 or more games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the spread 537 times, while PITTSBURGH covered the spread 442 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH won the game straight up 899 times, while VIRGINIA TECH won 92 times. In 1000 simulated games, VIRGINIA TECH covered the first half line 578 times, while PITTSBURGH covered the first half line 381 times. *EDGE against first half line =VIRGINIA TECH.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--PITTSBURGH is 2-2 versus the first half line when playing against VIRGINIA TECH since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--VT is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Under is 14-3 in VT last 17 overall.
--Under is 10-1 in VT last 11 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--PITT is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--PITT is 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
--Over is 20-8 in PITT last 28 home games.
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#523 ALABAMA @ #524 FLORIDA
(TV: Noon EST, ESPN - Line: Florida -14.5, Total: N/A) - Fourth-ranked Florida looks to continue its impressive stretch of stingy defense while extending a pair of winning streaks when it hosts struggling Alabama on Saturday afternoon. The Gators have won a school-record 28 consecutive games at home and 14 in a row overall, averaging 51.3 points against in the last seven while allowing 38.4 percent shooting for the season. The offensively challenged Crimson Tide dropped five of their last six games, including a 68-62 loss to Florida at home Jan. 23.
The Gators beat Missouri 68-58 on Tuesday in the debut of 6-10 freshman Chris Walker, who had to sit out 12 contests after enrolling at Florida in December because of eligibility issues and receiving improper benefits. Walker had two dunks for four points and two blocks in seven minutes and the McDonald’s All American will take on a larger role as time goes on. Alabama has averaged 56.5 points in its SEC losses and 63.2 in league games overall.
•ABOUT ALABAMA (9-13 SU, 6-12-1 ATS, 3-6 SEC): Trevor Releford has been the Crimson Tide’s only consistent offensive threat, averaging 18 points to place seventh in the SEC while shooting 49.4 percent from the field and 90 from the free throw line. Guard Retin Obasohan is the other player averaging in double figures scoring (11.4) for Alabama, but shot 6-of-24 in the last three contests. Freshman forward Shannon Hale has totaled only 21 points in three games after averaging 13.3 points over the six previous contests.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (20-2 SU, 9-8-1 ATS, 9-0 SEC): Walker gives the Gators another offensive threat on the interior to go along with Patric Young and Dorian Finney-Smith - averaging 10.7 and 10 points, respectively. That should help guard Michael Frazier II, who is averaging 15.8 points over the last five games including 18 against Alabama, while making 62 from 3-point range overall. Casey Prather leads the SEC in shooting percentage (62.3) and the Gators in scoring (15.7), followed by Frazier (12.6) and Scottie Wilbekin (12.4).
•PREGAME NOTES: The Gators is 20-2 for the third time in program history – the other two were in 2006 and 2007 when they won NCAA titles.... Alabama has dropped the last three games by an average of 14.3 points.... Florida has beaten the Crimson Tide eight straight times and 10 of the last 11.... The Crimson Tide are 6-0 against the spread in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing less than 64 points/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Gators are 0-6 versus the spread after two straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ALABAMA covered the spread 535 times, while FLORIDA covered the spread 465 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 853 times, while ALABAMA won 128 times. In 1000 simulated games, ALABAMA covered the first half line 621 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 379 times. *EDGE against first half line =ALABAMA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ALABAMA is 12-10 against the spread versus FLORIDA since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 19-4 straight up against ALABAMA since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ALABAMA is 14-8 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Florida.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
--Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ALA is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--Under is 19-7 in ALA last 26 road games.
--Under is 17-7 in ALA last 24 Sat. games.
--Under is 23-7-1 in FLA last 31 overall.
--Under is 10-1 in FLA last 11 Sat. games.
--Under is 15-5-1 in FLA last 21 vs. Southeastern.
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#529 KENTUCKY @ #530 MISSISSIPPI ST
(TV: 1:30 PM EST, SEC Network, ESPN3 - Line: Kentucky -13, Total: N/A) - Kentucky found its defensive presence in its last game and the Wildcats look to build off that when they visit Mississippi State on Saturday. Kentucky allowed 50 percent shooting in two straight games before allowing 38.5 in the 80-64 victory over Mississippi on Tuesday and collected a season-high 12 blocks – six by Willie Cauley-Stein. The Bulldogs won three of their first five SEC contests before dropping the last four by an average of 14 points, but are 3-1 at home in league play.
The 7-0 Cauley-Stein, who had combined for 14 points over the previous six games, recorded a season-high 18 to go along with 11 rebounds on Tuesday. Mississippi State will also have to deal with the inside game of 6-9 freshman Julius Randle, who averages 16 points for an offense scoring 80 per game, and almost 10 rebounds. The Bulldogs must get their offense in gear, which produced only 40.4 percent shooting combined the last four outings.
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (17-5 SU, 10-8-2 ATS, 7-2 SEC): The Wildcats are second in the league in scoring behind Arkansas while topping the SEC in shooting percentage (47.6) and rebounding margin (plus-10.4). Kentucky has won five of its last six games, but will look to improve on its 2-2 road record in the conference – the losses coming by a combined seven points. Randle leads the way, shooting 52.3 percent from the field, while James Young (14.7), Aaron Harrison (14.2) and Andrew Harrison (11) also average in double figures scoring.
•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (13-9 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 3-6 SEC): The Bulldogs are third in the league in steals per game (8.2), but have struggled overall on the defensive end while allowing a league-worst 44.3 percent shooting. Leading scorer Craig Sword (13.2) has been limited to 7.2 points per game and 14-of-47 shooting over the last five contests after averaging 17.3 over the previous four. Gavin Ware contributes 10.5 points and a team-high 7.9 rebounds per game and Colin Borchert averages 10.2 points for the Bulldogs.
•PREGAME NOTES: Young is the fourth freshman in Kentucky history to make at least 50 from 3-point range in season.... Mississippi State has lost 10 straight contests in the month of February.... Cauley-Stein has recorded 3.2 blocks per game to stand second in SEC and the Bulldogs average only 2.9.... The Bulldogs are 0-8 against the spread versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game over the last three seasons.... The Wildcats are 4-14 versus the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MISSISSIPPI ST covered the spread 521 times, while KENTUCKY covered the spread 454 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY won the game straight up 827 times, while MISSISSIPPI ST won 158 times. In 1000 simulated games, MISSISSIPPI ST covered the first half line 581 times, while KENTUCKY covered the first half line 419 times. *EDGE against first half line =MISSISSIPPI ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MISSISSIPPI ST is 9-9 against the spread versus KENTUCKY since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 16-4 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST since 1997.
--8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 12-8 versus the first half line when playing against MISSISSIPPI ST since 1997.
--10 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Mississippi St.
--Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UK is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--UK is 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 road games.
--Over is 4-1 in UK last 5 road games.
--MSST is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Under is 4-0 in MSST last 4 overall.
--Over is 5-1 in MSST last 6 home games.
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#531 TEXAS @ #532 KANSAS ST
(TV: 1:30 PM EST, Big 12 Network - Line: Kansas State -3, Total: N/A) - No. 18 Texas is one of the hottest teams in the nation and looks for its eighth consecutive win when it hits the road to face Kansas State on Saturday. The Longhorns survived a scare against Texas Christian as they shot a season-low 31 percent from the field in the 59-54 win. "We've got to understand that we put ourselves in position to win a Big 12 championship but we also need to understand that teams are going to be looking to beat us every night," forward Jonathan Holmes said.
Kansas State has lost three of its last four games and seeks to avenge a heartbreaking 67-64 loss to Texas at the buzzer on Jan. 21. The Wildcats saw their NCAA tournament hopes take a big hit when they fell to West Virginia 81-71 on Feb.1 and will have to bounce back quickly with a two-game stretch versus the Longhorns and No. 9 Kansas on deck. "The Big 12 is not very forgiving," coach Bruce Weber said. "We need to execute better, I need to help our players and everybody needs to do a better job."
•ABOUT TEXAS (18-4 SU, 10-9-0 ATS, 7-2 Big 12): Holmes leads the team in scoring (13.7) and had another stellar game versus TCU, pouring in 20 points and grabbing a career-high 16 rebounds. The Longhorns are ranked fifth nationally in rebounding and have won the battle of the boards in 17 of their 22 games this season. Isaiah Taylor tops the Longhorns in assists (3.6) and dished out a game-high seven helpers against the Horned Frogs.
•ABOUT KANSAS STATE (15-7 SU, 12-7-1 ATS, 5-4 Big 12): Marcus Foster leads the Wildcats in scoring (13.9) and tallied a team-high 23 points in the loss to West Virginia. Free-throw shooting continues to plague Kansas State, which is making 64.4 percent of their attempts from the line, and finished just 8-of-19 versus the Mountaineers. The Wildcats are ranked 20th nationally in 3-point field goal percentage defense, holding their opponents to 28.9 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
•PREGAME NOTES: Texas is 14-0 when holding its opponents to under 40 percent shooting from the floor.... Kansas State is 16-11 all-time against the Longhorns.... Taylor has made 20-of-22 free throws in his last three games.... Kansas State is 8-22 against the spread versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last three seasons, including 4-14 ATS after 15+games.... Texas is 5-14 versus the spread after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS covered the spread 535 times, while KANSAS ST covered the spread 439 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS ST won the game straight up 538 times, while TEXAS won 433 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS covered the first half line 532 times, while KANSAS ST covered the first half line 468 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS ST is 13-7 against the spread versus TEXAS since 1997.
--KANSAS ST is 11-10 straight up against TEXAS since 1997.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KANSAS ST is 11-10 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS since 1997.
--8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Longhorns are 3-13-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
--Longhorns are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Kansas St..
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in Kansas St.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEX is 14-6 ATS in their L20 games following a ATS loss.
--Over is 9-2 in TEX last 11 Sat. games.
--Over is 12-5 in TEX last 17 vs. Big 12.
--KSU is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--KSU is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
--Under is 14-3 in KSU last 17 home games.
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#535 MICHIGAN @ #536 IOWA
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Iowa -5, Total: N/A) - No. 16 Michigan aims to complete a regular-season sweep of No. 13 Iowa when it visits the Hawkeyes in Saturday’s pivotal Big Ten contest. The Wolverines have won 11 of their past 12 games and one of the victories was a 75-67 win over Iowa as guard Nik Stauskas tied his career high with 26 points. The Hawkeyes are in third place in the Big Ten but have slumped recently with three losses in their last five games.
Iowa suffered a 76-69 home loss to Ohio State on Tuesday when it was only 3-of-20 from 3-point range. It wasn’t just the shooting that bothered Hawkeyes coach Fran McCaffery as he expressed afterwards that his squad never got in sync defensively against the Buckeyes. Michigan rolled to a 79-50 victory over Nebraska on Wednesday that represents the school’s largest margin of victory in a Big Ten game since a 112-64 rout of Indiana on Feb. 22, 1998.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN (17-5 SU, 11-8-1 ATS, 9-1 Big Ten): Forward Glenn Robinson III (13.6) is second on the team in scoring behind Stauskas (17.3) and tied his career high of 23 points in the rout of Nebraska. Robinson had failed to reach double digits in each of the previous three games but made a season-high three 3-pointers while rediscovering his shooting stroke. “I had the same confidence, I never got down on myself,” Robinson said afterward. “I knew the shots were going to fall.”
•ABOUT IOWA (17-6 SU, 13-8-0 ATS, 6-4 Big Ten): Backup center Gabriel Olaseni has scored 14 or more points in three of the past four games after tallying 14 on 5-of-5 shooting against the Buckeyes. Olaseni averages 6.9 points and 5.4 rebounds and has taken major strides as a junior. “He’s playing with more confidence,” McCaffery said. “Obviously, you know he’s going to play with great energy. He’s got as good a motor as anybody but he’s playing through his mistakes and he feels comfortable out there and he’s affecting the game at both ends.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Wolverines have won 11 of the past 13 meetings.... Iowa leading scorer Roy Devyn Marble (16 per game) had only 10 points against Ohio State, his lowest output in Big Ten play this season.... Stauskas has failed to score in double digits in each of the last two games after stringing together 12 straight such outings.... The Hawkeyes are 16-4 against the spread versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game on the season over the last two seasons, including 9-1 ATS after 15+ games.... The Wolverines are 0-7 versus the spread in road games when playing only their 3rd game in a week over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the spread 506 times, while IOWA covered the spread 464 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 631 times, while MICHIGAN won 349 times. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the first half line 540 times, while IOWA covered the first half line 460 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN is 19-11 against the spread versus IOWA since 1997.
--MICHIGAN is 20-10 straight up against IOWA since 1997.
--12 of 23 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MICHIGAN is 21-7 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA since 1997.
--12 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MICH is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
--Over is 22-6-1 in MICH last 29 Sat. games.
--Over is 17-7-1 in MICH last 25 road games.
--IOWA is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big Ten.
--IOWA is 37-16 ATS in their last 53 home games.
--IOWA is 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
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#559 W VIRGINIA @ #560 KANSAS
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Kansas -13.5, Total: N/A) - Kansas bounced back from its first Big 12 loss with a strong defensive effort at Baylor and attempts to bring that back home when it hosts West Virginia on Saturday. The ninth-ranked Jayhawks continue to experience growing pains with their group of freshmen, but steady upperclassmen like Naadir Tharpe are keeping the team pushing forward. The Mountaineers are winners of three straight and will give Kansas’ defense a test with Juwan Staten and Eron Harris.
Staten and Harris are the top-scoring duo in the Big 12 and combined for 48 points in a 91-86 overtime triumph over Oklahoma on Wednesday. “This is probably the first big win of my life,” Harris told reporters. “We were in some of these games last year, but we never got the big win.” It will take another big effort from the guards to get the better of Kansas, which will have a big advantage on the inside with Joel Embiid and Perry Ellis.
•ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (14-9 SU, 11-9-0 ATS, 6-4 Big 12): The Mountaineers rank last in the Big 12 in field-goal percentage defense, allowing teams to go off at 43.6 percent, and do not get much offensively from anyone other than Harris, Staten and fellow guard Terry Henderson. The victory over Oklahoma was the first in a string of four straight games against ranked teams that could determine the postseason prospects for West Virginia, which suffered narrow losses to ranked opponents Wisconsin, Gonzaga and Oklahoma State (twice) earlier in the season. Staten has put up at least 15 points in 11 straight games but struggled to 6-of-18 shooting from the field against the Sooners.
•ABOUT KANSAS (17-5 SU, 11-10-1 ATS, 8-1 Big 12): The Jayhawks enjoy one of the finest collections of freshmen talent in the country, including a pair of potential No. 1 overall draft picks in Andrew Wiggins and Embiid. The two have taken turns showing off their skills but are battling inconsistency against scouting reports designed to stop them. Embiid was held to five points on 1-of-6 shooting while struggling through foul trouble in the win over Baylor, and Wiggins is 6-of-25 from the floor in the last two contests. Tharpe, a junior, and sophomore Ellis both are shooting better than 50 percent from the field to help cover some of the growing pains.
•PREGAME NOTES: Staten (5.96) and Tharpe (5.19) both rank in the top three in the Big 12 in assists.... Embiid (57) needs five blocks to tie Eric Chenowith’s freshman record for the Jayhawks....Kansas has won 110 straight home games against unranked opponents.... Kansas is 13-5 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... West Virginia is 15-3 versus the spread after scoring 80 points or more over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the spread 672 times, while KANSAS covered the spread 328 times. *EDGE against the spread =W VIRGINIA. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS won the game straight up 681 times, while W VIRGINIA won 296 times. In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the first half line 657 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 297 times. *EDGE against first half line =W VIRGINIA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KANSAS is 1-1 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA since 1997.
--KANSAS is 2-0 straight up against W VIRGINIA since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KANSAS is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against W VIRGINIA since 1997
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997
•RECENT TRENDS
--WVU is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--WVU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
--Over is 12-2 in WVU last 14 vs. Big 12.
--KU is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Big 12.
--KU is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Over is 7-1 in KU last 8 games following a ATS win.
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#575 TCU @ #576 IOWA ST
(TIME: 4:00 PM EST, Big 12 Network, ESPN3 - Line: Iowa State -19, Total: N/A) - Texas Christian, which still is searching for its first win of 2014, attempts to snap a nine-game losing streak when it visits No. 17 Iowa State on Saturday afternoon. The Cyclones are coming off a grueling 98-97 triple-overtime victory at No. 19 Oklahoma State on Monday, the team's first win at Gallagher-Iba Arena since 1988. "To gut this win out was huge," Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg said. "It would have been a very difficult loss, fighting three overtimes and walking out of here with an 'L'."
Texas Christian comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having lost to No. 18 Texas 59-54 at home on Tuesday - its second close defeat against a ranked team (77-69 at No. 22 Oklahoma on Jan. 22) in its last four contests. The Horned Frogs led Texas at halftime and were tied 52-52 with a little over three minutes to go. "When you have good kids and you're trying to build something and they put everything they have into it, whether it's 20 (points), whether it's 30, whether it's one or two, losing is painful," coach Trent Johnson told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
•ABOUT TEXAS CHRISTIAN (9-12 SU, 8-8-0 ATS, 0-9 Big 12): The injury-plagued Horned Frogs, who have five players out for the season, have struggled on the boards with a minus-6.7 rebounding margin and were outrebounded 56-25 in the loss to Texas. Guard Kyan Anderson, one of only four players on the roster to appear in all 21 games this season, leads the team in scoring (15.1) and has connected on 26-of-70 3-point attempts. Forwards Amric Fields (13.6) and Brandon Parrish (10.2) also are averaging in double figures.
•ABOUT IOWA STATE (17-4 SU, 10-9-0 ATS, 5-4 Big 12): Marshall transfer DeAndre Kane, who is averaging 16.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists, is making a strong run for All-American honors and just missed a triple-double in the win at Oklahoma State - finishing with 26 points, nine boards and nine assists. Forward Melvin Ejim leads the Big 12 in scoring (18.3) and has posted seven double-doubles. Forward Georges Niang (16.4) has connected on 15-of-30 3-pointers in his last five games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Iowa State is tied for first in the nation in assists per game (18.3).... Ejim has scored at least 10 points in 23 straight contests.... Texas Christian's last victory was over Texas Southern, a 77-64 triumph on Dec. 29.... Iowa State is 0-7 versus the spread in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing less than 12 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.... TCU is 0-6 against the spread versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the spread 534 times, while TCU covered the spread 435 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST won the game straight up 932 times, while TCU won 54 times. In 1000 simulated games, TCU covered the first half line 542 times, while IOWA ST covered the first half line 458 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA ST is 2-1 against the spread versus TCU since 1997.
--IOWA ST is 2-1 straight up against TCU since 1997.
--IOWA ST is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against TCU since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TCU is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 Sat. games.
--TCU is 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 5-1 in TCU last 6 vs. Big 12.
--Over is 10-3 in ISU last 13 Sat. games.
--Over is 19-7 in ISU last 26 vs. Big 12.
--Over is 20-5-1 in ISU last 26 home games.
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#577 ST. LOUIS @ #578 LA SALLE
(TV: 5:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Saint Louis -3.5, Total: N/A) - Saint Louis has quietly emerged as one of the nation's hottest teams, and the 15th-ranked Billikens aim for their 16th consecutive win when they visit La Salle on Saturday. Saint Louis has not lost since Dec. 1 and is coming off a quality road victory against Saint Joseph's on Wednesday. La Salle, meanwhile, has lost four of its last five games following Thursday's 12-point defeat to Massachusetts.
"I think it's great, but I think it's expected of us," senior forward Rob Loe said of the winning streak, which surpassed the Billikens' previous-best 14-game runs in 1958-59 and 1993-94. "We don't even look at the winning streak," guard Austin McBroom added. "Coach always talks about moving on to the next game." For Saint Louis, that next game is its last contest before a week off, leading up to next weekend's showdown with Virginia Commonwealth.
•ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (21-2 SU, 9-11-0 ATS, 8-0 A-10): McBroom is the only player among the Billikens' top eight scorers that shoots better than 33 percent from 3-point range. The 5-9 sophomore connects at 39 percent from long range and is also the team's top free-throw shooter at 91.1 percent. Dwayne Evans paces Saint Louis in scoring (14.6) and rebounding (6.5), although the win over Saint Joseph's marked just the fifth time this season that Evans (eight points, seven rebounds) failed to reach double figures in either category.
•ABOUT LA SALLE (12-10 SU, 4-14-1 ATS, 4-4 A-10): The Explorers' best player in last Saturday's win against Duquesne was center Steve Zack, who posted 16 points and 16 rebounds, as well as three blocks and a pair of steals in the 71-63 triumph. Jerrell Wright paced the team against UMass with 16 points and seven boards, but senior guard Tyrone Garland continued to struggle in both games. Garland (13.9 points per game) is shooting a career-worst 34.4 percent this season, including 26-of-90 over his last seven games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Each of La Salle's 10 defeats has come by at least seven points, although two of those losses came in double-overtime.... Saint Louis G Jordair Jett has committed at least four turnovers in seven of his last eight games.... Over his last four contests, Loe is 10-of-16 from 3-point range and 16-of-18 from the foul line.... The Billikens are 13-4 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Explorers are 2-11 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record this season, including 0-6 ATS after 15 or more games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS covered the spread 502 times, while LASALLE covered the spread 498 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS won the game straight up 598 times, while LASALLE won 375 times. In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS covered the first half line 488 times, while LASALLE covered the first half line 477 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAINT LOUIS is 5-4 against the spread versus LASALLE since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 7-3 straight up against LASALLE since 1997.
--5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 5-4 versus the first half line when playing against LASALLE since 1997.
--6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Billikens are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Billikens are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in La Salle.
--Underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Road team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SLU is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. Atlantic 10.
--Under is 7-1 in SLU last 8 road games.
--Under is 9-3 in SLU last 12 vs. Atlantic 10.
--LAS is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Atlantic 10.
--LAS is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
--Under is 14-6 in LAS last 20 Sat. games.
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#595 DUKE @ #596 BOSTON COLLEGE
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Duke -10, Total: N/A) - No. 11 Duke begins a stretch in which it plays three of four games on the road by visiting struggling Boston College on Saturday. The Blue Devils are tied with Pittsburgh for third place in the ACC as positioning for the postseason conference tournament picks up and will also visit North Carolina and Georgia Tech during the current stretch. The Eagles have lost nine of their last 11 games and are tied for 13th place in the 15-team conference.
Duke has won six of its last seven games and continues to receive stellar play from forward Jabari Parker, who averages 18.7 points and 8.2 rebounds. Parker scored 21 points in Tuesday’s 83-63 victory over Wake Forest to record his 13th 20-point outing of the campaign, six off the ACC freshman record held by Georgia Tech’s Kenny Anderson (1989-90). Boston College lost 77-67 to Virginia in its last outing and both of its ACC victories have come against last-place Virginia Tech.
•ABOUT DUKE (18-5, 15-8-0 ATS, 7-3 ACC): Guard Rasheed Sulaimon (9.1 average) has put together strong back-to-back outings after going 2-of-15 from the field over a two-game span. Suliamon followed up a solid 16-point performance against Syracuse with 19 against Wake Forest and has scored in double digits in eight of 12 games following a slow start. “I just kept working hard in practice and Coach (Mike Krzyzewski) gave me a shot,” Sulaimon said. “They say everything happens for a reason.”
•ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (6-16, 7-13-0 ATS, 2-7 ACC): Forward Ryan Anderson has been playing stellar basketball despite the team’s swoon and is averaging 19.7 points on 20-of-29 shooting over the past three games. Anderson leads the Eagles in rebounding (7.1) and ranks second on the squad in scoring (15.2) behind slumping guard Olivier Hanlan (17.7). Hanlan is averaging just 10 points on 8-of-20 shooting over the past three games and he has topped 20 points just once in the last 10 games.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Blue Devils hold a 17-2 series edge and have won the last eight meetings.... Duke has made 10 or more 3-point baskets in each of its last three games and 13 times overall.... The Eagles rank last in the ACC in scoring defense (74 per game) and field-goal percentage defense (46).... The Blue Devils are 12-4 versus the spread versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts over the last two seasons.... Boston College is 13-4 against the spread in home games versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the spread 542 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE covered the spread 429 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 795 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE won 184 times. In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON COLLEGE covered the first half line 502 times, while DUKE covered the first half line 469 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-5 against the spread versus DUKE since 1997.
--DUKE is 14-1 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--9 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--DUKE is 9-6 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Blue Devils are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Boston College.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--DUKE is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Over is 6-2 in DUKE last 8 overall.
--Over is 6-2 in DUKE last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--BC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Under is 8-3 in BC last 11 overall.
--Over is 10-3 in BC last 13 Sat. games.
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#601 BAYLOR @ #602 OKLAHOMA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Oklahoma -5, Total: N/A) - No. 23 Oklahoma will be happy to be back home Saturday to host Baylor. The Sooners, who are 10-2 at home this season, will look to put an overtime loss to West Virginia and an exhausting three-day trip to the East Coast behind them. Oklahoma arrived at WVU Coliseum 90 minutes before Wednesday's tip-off because of plane trouble and inclement weather and did not leave West Virginia until Thursday afternoon instead of flying home after the game.
The Bears look to bounce back from a loss to Big 12-leading Kansas and avenge a two-point home loss to the Sooners. Baylor struggled offensively against Kansas but limits teams to 67.9 points and can quickly get hot from the 3-point line. "For sure we can get on a streak, there's no doubt," Baylor forward Rico Gathers told the media after the Kansas loss. "We are halfway through and that's definitely the tougher half of the conference. We're just taking it one game at a time and we're looking to have a big second half in this conference."
•ABOUT BAYLOR (14-8 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 2-7 Big 12): Cory Jefferson leads the Bears with 12.6 points and eight rebounds and Brady Heslip adds 11.3 points, hitting a team-high 46.8 percent from the 3-point line. Kenny Chery contributes 10.6 points and 4.8 assists and Gathers adds 7.9 points and 7.6 rebounds off the bench. The Bears are 2-4 against ranked opponents, including last week's road win at Oklahoma State that is Baylor's only win in its last seven games.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA (17-6 SU, 11-9-1 ATS, 6-4 Big 12): Buddy Hield leads five Sooner starters in double figures with 16.9 points and has hit at least three 3-pointers in seven conference games. Cameron Clark adds 15.8 points and freshman point guard Jordan Woodard, who has recorded at least seven assists eight times, adds 11.8 points. Ryan Spangler averages 11.1 points and a league-high 10.2 rebounds and has eight straight games with at least nine boards.
•PREGAME NOTES: Baylor is 0-6 when trailing at halftime of Big 12 games and 3-7 overall this season.... Heslip, who has started the past three games, leads the Big 12 with three 3-pointers per game and has made 20 from beyond the arc in his last five games.... Spangler leads the Big 12 with nine double-doubles and Jefferson is tied for second with seven.... Oklahoma is 15-29 against the spread versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games since 1997.... Baylor is 4-14 versus the spread versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA covered the spread 510 times, while BAYLOR covered the spread 462 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA won the game straight up 663 times, while BAYLOR won 308 times. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA covered the first half line 526 times, while BAYLOR covered the first half line 474 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA is 25-8 against the spread versus BAYLOR since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA is 29-5 straight up against BAYLOR since 1997.
--13 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA is 20-12 versus the first half line when playing against BAYLOR since 1997.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bears are 7-21-2 ATS in the last 30 meetings.
--Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
--Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Oklahoma.
--Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BAY is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12.
--BAY is 7-17 ATS in their last 24 Sat. games.
--Over is 18-6 in BAY last 24 road games.
--Under is 6-2 in OKLA last 8 overall.
--Under is 6-2 in OKLA last 8 vs. Big 12.
--Over is 21-7 in OKLA last 28 home games.
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#623 CINCINNATI @ #624 SMU
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: SMU -3.5, Total: N/A) - Cincinnati may not be undefeated like Syracuse and Wichita State, but the Bearcats are proving to be in the conversation regarding the best teams in the country. Winners of 15 straight games, the seventh-ranked Bearcats look to continue their impressive surge when they visit Southern Methodist on Saturday. The teams met on New Year's Day in Cincinnati, where the Bearcats prevailed 65-57 behind Justin Jackson's 17 points, six rebounds, five blocks, five steals and three assists.
"That's what we've been hoping for," forward Titus Rubles said after Cincinnati's latest win - a 63-58 triumph over Connecticut on Thursday. "It's good to see the city excited for Cincinnati basketball again." Southern Methodist, meanwhile, has won seven of its last eight games, but coach Larry Brown was still nervous about his team's mindset heading into Thursday's 23-point win over Temple. "Our program's not to the point where we know how to win games that we're supposed to," Brown said. "I think we were all concerned about this game 'cause everywhere I went people were talking about Saturday (against Cincinnati). I was kind of confused what they meant by that."
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (22-2 SU, 10-8-0 ATS, 11-0 AAC): Sean Kilpatrick led the Bearcats in points (26), rebounds (12) and assists (six) against the Huskies and made five 3-pointers - his seventh straight game with multiple 3s. Fellow senior Rubles is only 2-of-11 shooting over his last two games and has reached double figures in scoring just once since the beginning of December after scoring at least 10 points in five of his first six games. The third member of Cincinnati's senior trio, Jackson has shot 18-of-26 over his last three contests and leads the team at 56.7 percent shooting on the season.
•ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (18-5 SU, 13-6-0 ATS, 7-3 AAC): The Mustangs have built a solid NCAA Tournament resume that includes victories over Texas A&M, Connecticut and Memphis, although a win over Cincinnati would go a long way for Brown's team. SMU leading scorer Nic Moore (13.7 points) has watched his scoring dip in four straight games - from 28 to 23 to 14 and finally to 11 against the Owls. Markus Kennedy has picked up the slack over the last two games, scoring a total of 35 points on 16-of-19 shooting with 24 rebounds in wins over Memphis and Temple.
•PREGAME NOTES: Cincinnati is 16-0 when outrebounding its opponent.... The Bearcats are 22-0 when holding the opposition below 50 percent shooting.... While Kennedy has been on fire from the field, the sophomore forward is just 3-of-10 from the foul line over the last two contests.... The Mustangs are 17-36 against the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games since 1997.... The Bearcats are 6-15 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI covered the spread 523 times, while SMU covered the spread 477 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SMU won the game straight up 572 times, while CINCINNATI won 399 times. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI covered the first half line 514 times, while SMU covered the first half line 435 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus SMU since 1997.
--CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against SMU since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SMU is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CIN is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games.
--Under is 44-12 in CIN last 56 overall.
--Under is 16-5 in CIN last 21 road games.
--SMU is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 6-2 in SMU last 8 Sat. games.
--Under is 10-4 in SMU last 14 overall.
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#635 WICHITA ST @ #636 NORTHERN IOWA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Wichita State -6.5, Total: N/A) - As the target on No. 2-ranked Wichita State's back gets larger with each victory, road games like Saturday's visit to Northern Iowa become increasingly difficult. With a late start and a national television audience sure to raise the intensity level, the Shockers will try for their 25th win. The team is coming off a 65-58 victory Wednesday at Indiana State that made Wichita State the first 24-0 Missouri Valley Conference squad since Larry Bird-led Indiana State in 1978-1979.
"That was quite a battle, quite a game against a tremendous team and with a great atmosphere," Shockers coach Gregg Marshall told reporters after Wichita State didn't allow a field goal in the final five minutes against Indiana State. "That's why it's so hard to win on the road." The Shockers, one of two undefeated teams in the country along with Syracuse, are 11-0 in the MVC for the first time in school history and are led by the nation's No. 11 defense (59.5 points allowed per game). The Panthers have lost four of their last five games following a 76-65 setback at Illinois State on Wednesday, but are 4-1 at home in the MVC - with the loss to Indiana State on Feb. 1.
•ABOUT WICHITA STATE (24-0 SU, 15-5-1 ATS, 11-0 Missouri Valley Conference): Many believe the Shockers will enter the NCAA Tournament undefeated and Cleanthony Early will be a big reason as the senior forward averages team bests of 16.3 points and 6.5 rebounds. Sophomore point guard Fred VanVleet is another key factor as his 11.9 points, 5.3 assists and four rebounds per game attest, while Ron Baker (12.7 points) and Tekele Cotton (9.6) also are threats. The Shockers could dominate the Panthers on the boards as they are 19th in the country and lead the MWC in rebounding at 39.6 per game, while Northern Iowa averages 33.1 - 274th in the nation.
•ABOUT NORTHERN IOWA (11-12 SU, 9-12-0 ATS, 5-6 Missouri Valley Conference): The Panthers lost the Jan. 5 meeting with Wichita State 67-53 as they shot 33.9 percent overall and hit 5-of-24 from 3-point range. Junior forward Seth Tuttle leads the team with 14.6 points and eight rebounds per game. Junior guard Deon Mitchell averages 13.3 points and scored a team-high 16 while making 7-of-14 from the field against Wichita State last month.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Shockers lead the MVC in many categories including scoring (74.3 points per game), points allowed, field goal percentage defense (39.1), 3-point field goal percentage defense (30), rebounding, offensive rebounds (12.2), rebounding margin (plus-8.1), blocked shots (4.9) and turnover margin (plus-2.5).... Marshall has nine players averaging at least 12 minutes, including seven who score at least five points per game.... Northern Iowa has won 26 of the 47 all-time meetings, including a 57-52 home victory over then-No. 15 Wichita State on Feb. 2, 2013.... The Shockers are 10-2 against the spread versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game on the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, N IOWA covered the spread 564 times, while WICHITA ST covered the spread 436 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST won the game straight up 630 times, while N IOWA won 333 times. In 1000 simulated games, N IOWA covered the first half line 574 times, while WICHITA ST covered the first half line 426 times. *EDGE against first half line =N IOWA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--N IOWA is 18-17 against the spread versus WICHITA ST since 1997.
--N IOWA is 20-16 straight up against WICHITA ST since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 20-16 versus the first half line when playing against N IOWA since 1997.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Shockers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Northern Iowa.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WICH is 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
--Over is 7-2 in WICH last 9 Sat. games.
--Over is 27-10 in WICH last 37 road games.
--UNI is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Over is 22-7 in UNI last 29 overall.
--Over is 14-3 in UNI last 17 vs. Missouri Valley.
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#637 GONZAGA @ #638 MEMPHIS
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Memphis -4.5, Total: N/A) - Gonzaga steps away from its usual dominance of the West Coast Conference to visit Memphis on Saturday in a primetime nonconference clash. The teams will be rekindling a rivalry that emerged through six straight meetings from 2006-11, five of which were won by the Tigers. The No. 20 Bulldogs are the slightly hotter team coming in, having won seven in a row over WCC opponents, including a 71-66 triumph over Portland on Wednesday that avenged their only loss in league play.
Memphis is tied for third place in the American Athletic Conference after a 101-69 rout of Rutgers on Tuesday. Austin Nichols scored 18 points and Joe Jackson added 16 as the Tigers set season highs with 12 3-pointers and a 59 percent mark from the floor in their best offensive showing against a Division I opponent since Nov. 23, 2010. Gonzaga entered the weekend ranked third in the nation with a shooting percentage of 50.3, while Memphis was 18th at 48.5.
•ABOUT GONZAGA (21-3 SU, 11-10-1 ATS): While the Bulldogs are well on their way to claiming the WCC regular season crown for the 15th time in 17 seasons, they haven't run away from opponents on a regular basis lately. Five of their last six games have been decided by 10 points or fewer and Mark Few's team needed to survive a tough second half in the win over Portland, with Kevin Pangos scoring seven of his 13 points in the final two minutes to help the club hang on. The sluggish stretch run was part of a three-game span that has seen one of the nation's most accurate teams post a 39.9 percent showing from the floor.
•ABOUT MEMPHIS (17-5 SU, 12-7-0 ATS): The Tigers have shown an ability to respond to some of their setbacks in a dramatic way, as evidenced by the rout of Rutgers, which came on the heels of a loss to Southern Methodist three days earlier. Nichols has been the catalyst in many of those responses, as the freshman big man has made 30-of-41 shots while averaging 13 points in the first game after a loss, compared to 6.6 points on 51.4 percent shooting in all other contests. Jackson, meanwhile, has been the consistent presence with at least 14 points and five assists in each of his last five games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Jackson (1,531 career points) needs 15 to surpass Chris Douglas-Roberts and move into ninth place on the school's all-time scoring list.... Pangos is 5-for-24 from the field in his last three games.... This marks just the seventh true road game for Gonzaga.... The Tigers are 38-14 against the spread versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 37% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.... The Bulldogs are 8-2 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA covered the spread 660 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 340 times. *EDGE against the spread =GONZAGA. In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA won the game straight up 516 times, while MEMPHIS won 457 times. In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA covered the first half line 638 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 362 times. *EDGE against first half line =GONZAGA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GONZAGA is 4-3 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 5-2 straight up against GONZAGA since 1997.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 4-3 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 12-3 in GONZ last 15 road games.
--Under is 55-25-2 in GONZ last 82 overall.
--Under is 35-13-3 in GONZ last 51 Sat. games.
--MEM is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.
--Under is 12-5 in MEM last 17 overall.
--Under is 8-3 in MEM last 11 home games.
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#641 OKLAHOMA ST @ #642 TEXAS TECH
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Oklahoma State -5.5, Total: N/A) - No. 19 Oklahoma State will try to put a rough week behind it when it travels to Texas Tech on Saturday. The Cowboys saw freshman guard Stevie Clark dismissed from the team in between a pair of close losses that dropped them to seventh in the Big 12 and a game ahead of Texas Tech. "We don't accept moral victories, but I feel like we definitely made a stride in the right direction," guard Brian Williams told the media after Monday's 98-97 triple-overtime loss to Iowa State. "We need to figure something out soon to get back on a winning streak."
The Cowboys will face a well-rested and excited Red Raiders team. Texas Tech hasn't played since Saturday's win against Texas Christian and will host a game in front of a sold-out United Sprint Arena for the first time since a win against New Mexico on Jan. 1, 2007. It's the start of Texas Tech's toughest stretch of the season: five ranked foes in a row, ending with trip to Oklahoma State on Feb. 22.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (16-6 SU, 8-10-0 ATS, 4-5 Big 12): The Cowboys have lost four of five and star guard Marcus Smart is working through a shooting slump. Smart leads the team with 17.3 points per game but is shooting 28.4 percent from the floor and 12.1 percent from 3-point range over the past five games. Markel Brown and Le'Bryan Nash have picked up their scoring over the past four games, averaging 19 and 20.5 points respectively.
•ABOUT TEXAS TECH (11-11 SU, 11-8-0 ATS, 3-6 Big 12): Jaye Crockett leads the Red Raiders with 14.4 points per game on a league-best 55.3 percent shooting and 6.2 rebounds and is closing in on a program milestone. Crockett needs four steals to become the fifth Red Raider with 1,000 points, 600 rebounds, 100 steals and 100 assists in a career. Jordan Tolbert adds 11.1 points and six rebounds per game for the Red Raiders, who are 1-3 against ranked opponents.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Cowboys lead the Big 12 in scoring margin (plus-15) and turnover margin (plus-3.9).... The Red Raiders are 6-4 in front of sellout crowds, including a 2-2 mark against ranked opponents.... Crockett's hometown of Clovis, N.M., honored him with Jaye Crockett Day on Tuesday.... Oklahoma State is 11-2 against the spread in road games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game since 1997.... The Red Raiders are 4-17 versus the spread in home games versus good foul drawing teams - attempting less than 25 free throws/game after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the spread 501 times, while TEXAS TECH covered the spread 499 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST won the game straight up 647 times, while TEXAS TECH won 320 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS TECH covered the first half line 509 times, while OKLAHOMA ST covered the first half line 450 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEXAS TECH is 19-19 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 29-9 straight up against TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--14 of 28 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 23-14 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS TECH since 1997.
--15 of 28 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Texas Tech.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OKST is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--OKST is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
--Over is 16-5 in OKST last 21 Sat. games.
--TTU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12.
--TTU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Under is 6-0 in TTU last 6 Saturday games.
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#649 NEVADA @ #650 SAN DIEGO ST
(TV: 10:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: San Diego State -11.5, Total: N/A) - San Diego State brings its high-wire act back home Saturday when the fifth-ranked Aztecs host Nevada, which is coming off an 83-75 loss at Utah State. The Aztecs reached the 20-win mark for the ninth straight year Wednesday by overcoming a 14-point, second-half deficit and winning 67-65 at Boise State on Dwayne Polee’s 3-pointer with three seconds remaining. San Diego State has won 18 straight since losing at home to Arizona on Nov. 14.
Saturday’s matchup features two of the top three scorers in the Mountain West in Nevada’s Deonte Burton (21.1) and the Aztecs’ Xavier Thames (18.2), a leading contender for the league’s player of the year award. Thames extended his career-long double-figure scoring streak to 11 games against Boise State, when he finished with 23 points while shooting 10-of-11 from the foul line and 3-of-4 from beyond the arc. "What can you say about Xavier Thames?" coach Steve Fisher asked reporters. "You can't tell me that he's not playing as well as anyone in America right now."
•ABOUT NEVADA (12-11 SU, 13-9-0 ATS, 7-3 Mountain West): Burton, whose 38.7 minutes per game leads the conference, scored 23 points against Utah State to move into second on the school’s all-time scoring list with 1,944. Forward Ronnie Stevens was held scoreless in 14 minutes against the Aggies after missing 12 games with a leg injury, and he'll likely see more playing time off the bench as his conditioning improves. Center A.J. West averages a team-high 7.8 rebounds, but he’s struggled offensively since suffering an ankle injury at Fresno State on Jan. 22.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (20-1 SU, 11-7-0 ATS, 9-0 Mountain West): The Aztecs aren’t a dynamic offensive team, but they’re allowing a league-low 56.6 points per game while holding opponents to 36.8 percent shooting. Forward Josh Davis, the Aztecs’ leading rebounder at 11.2 per game, returned against Boise State after missing one game with a bruised knee and collected 10 points and five boards in 29 minutes. Winston Shepard missed seven of his nine shots against Boise State, but the 6-8 forward has bounced back from a quiet freshman season by averaging 12.8 points and 5.1 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Aztecs have won 110 straight games when leading with five minutes to play.... Nevada is shooting 24.6 percent from 3-point range over its past three games.... San Diego State leads the all-time series 7-3, including two straight wins.... Nevada is 16-6 versus the spread in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging less than 12 assists/game after 15+ games since 1997.... San Diego State is 13-5 against the spread after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEVADA covered the spread 519 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the spread 481 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST won the game straight up 792 times, while NEVADA won 179 times. In 1000 simulated games, NEVADA covered the first half line 570 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the first half line 430 times. *EDGE against first half line =NEVADA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus NEVADA since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 2-2 straight up against NEVADA since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 versus the first half line when playing against NEVADA since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NEV is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--NEV is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Mountain West.
--Over is 19-7 in NEV last 26 road games.
--SDSU is 50-23-1 ATS in their last 74 Sat. games.
--Under is 19-7 in SDSU last 26 overall.
--Under is 11-1 in SDSU last 12 home games.
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