SEC Championship
By Brian Edwards
Missouri vs. Auburn
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7
Time/TV: 4:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Venue: Georgia Dome
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Line, Total: Auburn -1 ½, 58
Raise your hand if you picked Auburn and Missouri to collide in Atlanta this weekend at the SEC Championship Game. Now if your hand is raised, stop lying!
In the most improbable matchup in the history of the SEC Championship Game that dates back to 1992, Missouri will face Auburn at the Ga. Dome on Saturday at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS. The winner will get a date in Pasadena at the BCS Championship Game if Michigan State can beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.
As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Auburn or Missouri favored by one, while others had it as a pick ‘em. From Sunday through Thursday, most spots had Auburn favored by 1½ or two. The total is 58½
Auburn (11-1 straight up, 10-2 against the spread) has been living on the edge in its last two games, pulling out miraculous victories over Georgia and Alabama on two game-winning plays that will be remembered for generations to come.
On fourth and 18 against Georgia, Nick Marshall’s bomb into double coverage went right into the hands of the UGA defenders. Instead of knocking the ball down, both defenders collided going for the ball, resulting in a carom that inexplicably led the ball right into the hands of a streaking Ricardo Louis for a 73-yard touchdown with 25 ticks left.
Last week’s play was even more unlikely. We’ve seen tipped balls on Hail Mary’s many times before. What AU’s Chris Davis did with his 109-yard return of Alabama’s missed 57-yard field goal to end the game and the SEC West race was beyond shocking.
The only time I can remember a 109-yard return (107 actually) off a missed field goal was when Chris McAlister did it for the Ravens against the Broncos on Monday Night Football. And the main reason I remember it is because of the barbaric crackback block that Ray Lewis delivered to spring McAlister.
But that came at the end of the first half, not the end of the game or the conclusion of a team’s quest to win a third straight national title and a fourth in five years.
The likelihood of those plays is off the charts. Auburn came up with them in back-to-back home games. Is this a team of destiny, one touched with some sort of magical charm?
Remember, it was this week a year ago that the school fired a head coach that led it to the school’s first national title since the 1950s just 24 months before. That’s what happens when you go 3-9 on The Plains. Many expected AU to improve under Gus Malzahn, but nobody envisioned this type of turnaround.
Missouri (11-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) hasn’t needed good fortune or luck on its way to a remarkable bounce-back season. Gary Pinke’s team was snakebitten by injuries in its 2012 SEC debut. In fact, it lost three offensive line starters before Week 1 and QB James Franklin was never 100 percent.
In 2013, however, Mizzou has stayed healthy with the exception of Franklin missing five weeks with a separated shoulder. Pinkel’s bunch has won 10 of its 11 games by 14 points or more, and its only loss came in overtime to South Carolina in a game it led 17-0 with 12 minutes remaining.
Mizzou is two-deep at QB, three-deep at RB and has three future NFL wide receivers. RB Henry Josey missed all of 2012 with a knee injury but has shined in 2013 nonetheless. Josey has run for a team-high 951 yards and 13 TDs.
Franklin has a 16/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and three rushing scores. Dorial Green-Beckham and L’Damian Washington have 10 TD catches apiece.
Totals have been an overall wash for Mizzou (6-6), but the ‘under’ has cashed at a 4-1 clip in its last five games.
Auburn has seen the ‘over’ go 7-5 overall, 6-1 in its last seven contests.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
I noted above that a Michigan St. win over Ohio St. would send the Mizzou-AU winner to Pasadena. Obviously, a Duke win over FSU would do the trick as well, but we all know that those chances are very slim. However, there is precedence for such shockers to shake up the national-title game matchup. In 2007, Pitt went to Morgantown and beat West Va. as a 28½-point underdog, paving the way for LSU to win it all over Ohio St. in New Orleans. Just two years ago, Iowa State clipped Oklahoma St. as a 27½-point ‘dog. Duke is a 29-point ‘dog to the ‘Noles at most books. -- Stanford is 4-0-1 ATS with three outright victories in five games as an underdog on David Shaw’s watch. Both outright defeats came in overtime. The Cardinal is a three-point ‘dog Saturday night at Arizona St. When they met in Palo Alto earlier this year, Stanford led 29-0 at intermission and 39-7 going into the fourth quarter. Therefore, don’t allow the 42-28 final to mislead you into thinking this wasn’t a lopsided beatdown in the previous encounter.
Arizona State RB Marion Grice is out vs. Stanford. Grice has rushed for 996 yards and scored 20 TDs (14 rushing, six receiving), but back-up D.J. Foster ran for 124 yards and a pair of scores in last week’s blowout win over in-state rival Arizona.
Memphis at UConn was a pick ‘em at most spots as of Friday afternoon. If the Huskies go off as home underdogs, they will be looking to improve on an incredible 18-4 spread record in their last 22 games as home puppies.
Fresno State WR Josh Harper (groin) is ‘questionable’ Saturday vs. Utah St. Harper has 79 receptions for 1,011 yards and 13 TDs this year.
Texas will be without leading tackler Steve Edmond Saturday at Baylor and in its bowl game. Edmond has a lacerated liver but should be ready for spring ball. The MLB had 73 tackles and two interceptions in 2013.
Texas is 6-2 ATS in eight games as a road underdog dating back to 2004. The Longhorns are 15-point ‘dogs at Baylor.
SMU senior QB Garrett Gilbert (21/7 TD-INT) was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ on Friday. He will most likely miss a second straight game Saturday vs. UCF. Without Gilbert, SMU head coach June Jones took his first bagel EVER as a head coach in last week’s 34-0 loss at Houston. During Jones’s tenure, the Mustangs are 9-4 ATS as home underdogs. They were catching 11 or 11.5 at most spots late Friday afternoon.
UL-Lafayette QB Terrance Broadway is ‘doubtful’ at South Alabama due to a wrist injury. Broadway has a 19/10 TD-INT ratio and eight rushing scores this season.
