Service Plays Saturday 12/7/13

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College football betting weather report: Saturday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your college football bets for Saturday's matchups:

Marshall Thundering Herd at Rice Owls (+6.5, 60.5)

Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 9 mph.

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10, 57)

Temperatures will be in the high-teens with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.

Central Florida Knights at SMU Mustangs

Temperatures will be in the low-20s with a 30 percent chance of ice pellets. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 8 mph.

Memphis Tigers at Connecticut Huskies (Pick, 43)

There is a 30 percent chance of snow for gametime. Temperatures will be in the mid-30s and wind will blow toward the E endzone at 9 mph.

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-15.5, 71.5)

There is a 30 percent chance of ice pellets with temperatures in the high-20s. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.

South Florida Bulls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4, 46.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 19 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 56)

There is a 55 percent chance of rain in the forecast toward the end of the game. Wind will blow across the field at 10 mph.

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Sun Devils (-29, 62)

There is a 68 percent chance of rain in the forecast with wind blowing across the field at 9 mph.

UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. South Alabama Jaguars (-3, 58)

There is a 46 percent chance of rain in the forecast with temperatures in the high-40s. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 8 mph.

Utah State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (-3, 60)

Temperatures will be in the low-30s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 3 mph.

 

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NCAAF betting: Championship game stats and trends
By MARC LAWRENCE

Little did the NCAA realize when they approved college football conference championship games in 1992 how much of an impact it would have on determining the bowl landscape.

With the BCS in its final season, and numerous major bowl slots pending, we turned to our trusted database for an overview of how teams and conferences have fared in these title tilts

Here are some of the findings. Enjoy the games.

Conference Trending

No less than seven FBS conferences will be featuring championship games this weekend.

The Mountain West kicks off its inaugural game, while the Big 10 and the Pac 12 enter into its 3rd year of play.

Looking inside the four conferences with 5 or more of championship play under the belts, trends of note include…

• ACC: favorites of 7 or more points are 0-3 ATS, including 1-2 straight up… .900 or greater teams are 02 SU and ATS… team off a win of 20 or more points are 1-3 ATS. Florida State fits the bill on all three counts.

• CUSA - the favorite in games with teams owning identical records is 2-0 ATS… favorites of 3 or more points are 5-2 ATS… teams who allowed 28 or more points in their last game are 1-4 SU and ATS. Marshall qualifies in all three categories.

• MAC - teams with a win percentage of more than .800 are 1-7-2 ATS… favorites are 3-9-2 ATS. Northern Illinois hopes to improve on both numbers.

• SEC – despite the longest conference history, no particular trend comes to the surface. It is worth noting, however, that teams who manage to score 30 or more points in this game are 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS. Those who score 20 or fewer points in this title game are 0-14 SU and 1-12-1 ATS.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Oklahoma owns the best record of all teams in conference championship games at 7-1. Arkansas and Ohio University are the worst at 0-3. Unfortunately, neither team will be participating this week.

Arizona State, Duke, Fresno State, Ohio State, Rice and Utah State are all championship game maidens this season.

Of the teams that will be playing, these are their past performance records in title game, in straight up and against the spread sequence:

Auburn (2-2, 2-2); Bowling Green (0-1, 0-1); Florida State (2-1, 1-2); Marshall (3-1, 1-2-1); Michigan State (0-1,1-0); Missouri (0-2, 0-2); Northern Illinois (2-2, 0-3-1) and Stanford (1-0, 0-1).

Top This

Arizona State has won its last eight home games by an average score of 49-19.

Auburn is 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 5 or fewer points.

Bowling Green is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last seven regular season weekday games. The Falcons are also 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight MAC contests away from home.

Duke’s last outright ACC title was in 1954. The Blue Devils last appearance in an Orange Bowl was in 1958.

In four games against common opponents this season, Marshall won the overall stats by 615 yards. Rice lost the overall stats by 124 yards.

Fresno State is 0-10 ATS at home in games after losing straight up as a favorite.

Missouri has turned the ball over only 7 times in its last nine games.

Northern Illinois is 8-22 SU and 10-19-2 ATS in games versus greater than .700 opponents.

Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer is 31-10 SU and 27-10-4 ATS in his career versus .750 or greater opposition.

Rice is 11-0-1 ATS as a conference home dog when playing off a win.

Stanford is 5-0 ATS as a dog since the 2011 Fiesta Bowl.

Utah State is 14-2 ATS away from home versus winning opponents.

Still Perfect After All These Years

Florida State is 18-0 straight up all-time versus Duke by an average score of 50-15.

 

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Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

Championship Saturday is one of the biggest days for college football betting, despite having limited action on the board. We talk to Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag about the betting patterns and line adjustments for some of Saturday’s massive matchups:

Missouri Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers – Open: -2.5 Move: +1.5

This line has moved as many four points at some books, with sharp money hitting Missouri hard in the SEC Championship Game.

Auburn, coming off an unbelievable win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl, is primed for a letdown but this massive move may have money coming back on War Eagle before kickoff. According to Perry, Auburn has drawn most of the public money for this game.

“Fifty-seven percent of money on spread is backing Auburn and 60 percent of moneyline cash is on Auburn,” says Perry. “Ninety-five percent of the action on the total is backing the Over.”

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles – Open: -30, Move: -28.5, Move: -29.5

With some uncertainty around FSU QB Jameis Winston status, early money took this spread down as low as Duke +28.5. But since Winston was cleared of assault charges Thursday, money has shown up on the Seminoles and has brought the line back up to FSU -29.5.

“After just a few hours, we got a small sharp play on Duke, so moved to +29.5. Early Thursday, we moved line in Blue Devils favor to -28.5, bracing for a possible suspension to Jameis Winston,” Perry says. “However, when it was announced that he will not be charged with any crime, the line went back up to -29.5. Sixty-eight percent of the money on the spread is on Duke.”

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans – Open: +6, Move: +5

Early action wasn’t convinced by Ohio State’s undefeated record and trimmed this spread as much as a point at some markets. The Buckeyes have dominated the Spartans at the window in recent games, going 6-2-1 ATS in their last three meetings.

“Sixty percent of the money on spread is backing MSU and 73 percent of the moneyline cash is on the Spartans,” says Perry.

Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils – Open: -4, Move: +3

Action on the underdog has slid this spread to the key number of a field goal. Stanford defeated the Sun Devils, 42-28, at home in Week 4, covering as a 6.5-point home favorite. However, ASU has won seven in a row, posting a 5-2 ATS mark in the stretch.

“Yet another game that has shifted in favor of the underdog,” says Perry. The Sun Devils opened -4 and on Monday morning we got a wiseguy play on the Cardinal for a rather large amount, so moved right to -3. Seventy percent of the money on the spread is on Stanford and 80 percent of moneyline cash is also on Stanford."

 

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NCAA FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR - Saturday
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Auburn. Set-ups don't get any better than this. Auburn comes into this game off not one, but two of the greatest wins in the history of College Football. First, of course, was its miraculous 43-38 win over Georgia by virtue of a 73-yard TD pass on a 4th-and-18 play with 25 seconds left. Then, last week, Auburn looked to be facing, possibly, a 14-point deficit to its arch-rival, Alabama, with a few minutes to play. But an offensive holding penalty likely kept Alabama from the end zone. And then more improbable events followed: blocked Alabama field goal; quick Auburn TD; missed (ill-advised) Alabama field-goal; and a 100-yard TD return by Auburn. And that's how Auburn stunned the 2-time defending champions, and won outright as a 10-point underdog. But Auburn's ecstasy is likely to be short-lived. Missouri is 11-1 on the season, and only has a 3-point overtime loss to South Carolina to blemish its season. Both teams have 7-1 records in SEC Conference play, but Missouri has outscored its SEC Conference foes by 16.8 ppg, while Auburn has only outscored its SEC Conference foes by 7.9 ppg. Even worse for Auburn: teams playing away from home in the post-season are 0-20 ATS since 1985 off an upset win as an underdog of +7 or more points, if they're matched up against a .584 (or better) foe, and are not getting 6+ points in the current game! Take Missouri + the points. Good luck, as always...

 

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YourBookiesMoney( Very rare 5* Play probably about 10 a year)

5* ​Michigan St +5 1/2

 

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Maddux

10* Utah St +3.5 (+3(-120) at most books now)

Will probably add one more tomorrow morning...I'll post when released- I've never seen just a one-pick-Saturday!

 

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YourBookiesMoney Saturday Added Play (4-0 Last two Days)

3* Golden St. +1
Everything points to a Golden St. win in this spot. I believe the loss of Mark Gasol is starting to take full effect for Memphis. In the 2nd half of their last game, the Clippers absolutely destroyed them. Tony Allen did not play in that game and he is questionable for this game. Also Ed Davis an underrated big man was hurt last game and it's almost a lock he is out for this contest. Golden St. is coming off a very bad loss last night in Houston, but what made this pick so attractive to me is that Memphis has already beaten Golden St. twice this year. However, those losses were against a Memphis team at full strength and the lineup they put out Saturday will be far from full strength. If Golden St. is not motivated after what happened last night and losing twice to Memphis already this year they will never be up for a game. On a side note Andre Iguodala has been upgraded to questionable. I'm not saying he will play, but this is the best chance for him to see some action in a few games. In conclusion, I just see this as a game Golden St will give extra attention too for many reasons, while Memphis is banged up and has not been playing good anyway at full strength.

 

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Northcoast

Big Dog - Oklahoma +10

Big 12 POW - Texas +15.5

 

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River City Sharps

3 Units Marshall -6.5

 

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Joe Gavazzi

CFB

Baylor

Rice

 

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Auburn's rushing attack reason to run to betting window

If you’re looking for teams that give you a reason to run to the betting window, then look for the teams that can run. Like Auburn.

There’s a reason the Tigers are tied for the second-best spread-covering mark in the nation, with a 10-2 ATS record. As ESPN noted on its college football Twitter feed, Auburn not only runs, but has far more breakaway runs than any other team in the SEC. The Tigers have 121 rushes of 10 yards or more this season. Missouri is a distant second, but still piled up a respectable 91 runs of 10 or more yards, and Mizzou has the nation’s No. 1 ATS mark at 10-1-1.

Not coincidentally, Auburn and Missouri meet for the SEC title on Saturday at the Georgia Dome.

 

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NCAAF betting BCS Championship game probabilities

For you futures bettors, Bill Connelly at SBNation picked up the wreckage from last week’s college football action and came up with some probabilities for the BCS title game, based on projected outcomes from this weekend’s conference championship games.

Obviously, the highest probability is that Florida State will face Ohio State, at 63.5 percent. But if any apple carts get upset this weekend, then it gets interesting.

Florida State-Auburn has a 20.5 percent probability, occurring if Ohio State loses to Michigan State. There’s a 12.9 percent chance of Florida State-Missouri, again based on an Ohio State loss. And Alabama fans can take solace in this: If Duke, a 29-point ‘dog, upsets Florida State, and the Buckeyes fall to Michigan State, and Auburn beats Missouri, the BCS title game would be a rematch of last weekend’s wickedly entertaining Iron Bowl: Auburn vs. ‘Bama.

The chances of that happening, writes Connelly: 0.8 percent.

 

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Marco D'Angelo

3 CFB Plays On Sports X Radio

Missouri+pts
Stanford+pts
Utah State+pts

 

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Oklahoma at Oklahoma State What bettors need to know

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10, 57)

Oklahoma State's players never need any extra motivation when they face Oklahoma, but the possibility of a conference title and a BCS berth is simply too attractive to ignore. The No. 6 Cowboys host the 15th-ranked Sooners on Saturday with just about everything on the line for Oklahoma State - not the least of which is bragging rights. "I want to go out with the 'W,'" Cowboys senior fullback Kye Staley said. "It's for a lot of big things. It's for a Big 12 championship and a berth in a BCS bowl. We're just going out with a lot of intensity, a lot of focus. We're getting ready to game plan and getting ready for OU."

The Cowboys have won seven straight games since their only loss of the season - a 30-21 defeat against a West Virginia team that wound up 4-8. The Sooners defeated the Mountaineers early in the season but went on to lose to Texas and Baylor - two teams that Oklahoma State defeated - by a combined margin of 77-32. "They played better football than us this year, there's no doubt," Oklahoma center Gabe Ikard said of the Cowboys, adding "but we don't see ourselves as an underdog in this game."

TV: Noon, ET, ABC.

LINE: The Cowboys opened as 10.5-point faves and are now -10. The total opened 58 and is down to 57.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-teens with wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (9-2, 6-2 Big 12): The Sooners trailed their rival the entire way last season until Brennan Clay's decisive touchdown run in overtime that gave Oklahoma a 51-48 victory. This season, Oklahoma sports a resume that includes victories over Notre Dame and and Texas Tech, as well as last week's 41-31 win over Kansas State that made Bob Stoops the Sooners' all-time wins leader (158). Clay ran for a career-high 200 yards and two touchdowns against the Wildcats after totaling 193 rushing yards and one score over his previous five games.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (10-1, 7-1): The Cowboys have had an extra week to rest since dismantling Baylor 49-17 behind Clint Chelf's 370 passing yards and three scores and Staley's two rushing TDs. Chelf, who lost his starting job earlier this season, has completed 74.5 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception over his last two games. The Cowboys have scored at least 20 points in 50 consecutive contests, but their defense quietly is much improved, holding Kansas, Texas and Baylor to an average of 12 points over the last three games.

TRENDS:
* Sooners are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games in December.
* Over is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Oklahoma State has won nine straight home games and is 18-1 in its last 19 games at Boone Pickens Stadium.

2. With one more win, the Cowboys seniors will become the winningest class in Oklahoma State history.

3. Oklahoma leads the series 82-18-7, including 38-7-5 in Stillwater.

 

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Texas at Baylor What bettors need to know

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-15.5, 71.5)

Baylor's BCS dreams are hanging by a thread, but the No. 7 Bears - and their opponent Saturday, No. 24 Texas - can each still win the Big 12 title with a victory this weekend. If Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma earlier Saturday, then either the Bears or the visiting Longhorns can win the conference championship outright. If Oklahoma State wins, Baylor will try to salvage a BCS at-large berth after scuffling to the finish line the last two weeks.

The Bears, who have not won an outright league title since 1980, were dominated 49-17 by Oklahoma State on Nov. 23 and barely squeaked by a 4-8 Texas Christian team last week. Still, coach Art Briles knows that an outright league title and a BCS berth would be extremely significant for his blossoming program, saying "it would be tremendous for Baylor University, for our football team and everybody that loves this university. It would be one of the defining moments, I think, for Baylor football." Texas also could sneak into the BCS party with a win and a loss by Oklahoma State, although the Longhorns need to start faster after falling behind at least 7-0 in each of their last three games.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: Baylor opened -13.5 and is up to -15.5. The total is down two points from the opening 73.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s. There is a 30 percent chance of ice pellets in the forecast..

ABOUT TEXAS (8-3, 7-1 Big 12): The Longhorns have scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight contests, thanks in large part to an improved rushing attack that rolled up 281 yards and three touchdowns against Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night. Case McCoy threw a pair of touchdowns against the Red Raiders and perhaps more importantly did not throw an interception for the first time in six games. On the defensive side of the ball, Baylor quarterback Bryce Perry will be under constant duress from Texas' talented tandem of defensive ends, Jackson Jeffcoat and Cedric Reed, who have combined for 19 sacks this season.

ABOUT BAYLOR (10-1, 7-1): Despite a pair of disappointing performances the last two weeks, Baylor has a chance to break the all-time record for points per game (56, 1944 Army) and yards per game (624.9, 1989 Houston). The Bears, who are currently averaging 55.4 points and 635.1 yards, have received a stunningly efficient season from Perry, as the junior quarterback has 3,557 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and two interceptions, in addition to 11 rushing scores. A fast start for Texas is even more critical when you consider that the average halftime score for the Bears this season is Baylor leading its opponent 34.9 to 9.7.

TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last six games overall.
* Bears are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Texas has won 17 of the last 20 meetings, including a 56-50 victory last season.

2. Longhorns K Anthony Fera has made 15 straight field goals, tying the school record set by Phil Dawson in 1996-97.

3. The Bears have never won 11 games in a season, finishing with 10 victories in 1980 and 2011

 

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SEC Championship: What bettors need to know

Missouri Tigers vs Auburn Tigers (+1.5, 59)

Game will be played at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia.

The two most surprising teams in the Southeastern Conference all season, No. 5 Missouri and No. 3 Auburn square off for the league title Saturday at the Georgia Dome. The teams combined for just two conference victories a year ago but now find themselves a win away from playing in a BCS bowl - and potentially the national championship game. The winner will find itself paying close attention to the ACC and Big Ten title games Saturday night in hopes Florida State or Ohio State will lose and clear the path for the SEC champion to leap into the top two in the BCS standings.

Auburn's unlikely path to the championship game has included eight consecutive victories, culminating with last week's 34-28 win over bitter rival Alabama in which Chris Davis caught a missed field goal in the back of the end zone and returned it for the winning touchdown on the final play of the game. "That is our biggest challenge as a team," first-year Auburn coach Gus Malzahn told reporters of his team's task of shifting its focus after such a dramatic win. "It was a very emotional win. It was a physical game, but we have to put it behind us and we have to put all of our attention on Missouri." Missouri also had to finish on a high note to play its way to Atlanta, beating Texas A&M 28-21 at home a week after a 24-10 victory at Mississippi to earn a spot in the title game in just its second year in the league.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Auburn opened as a 1.5-point fave but has been bet to +1.5. The total is up one point to 59.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT MISSOURI (11-1, 10-1-1 ATS): The Tigers surged to the top of the SEC East on the strength of a balanced offense led by senior quarterback James Franklin, who has passed for 1,952 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions and rushed for 412 yards and 3 TDs, and an opportunistic defense. They average 489.5 total yards and rank 18th in the nation in rushing (236.9) with Henry Josey leading the way (951 yards, 13 TDs). The defense is tied for fourth in the nation with 37 sacks, has forced 27 turnovers and has at least one takeaway in 42 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the FBS.

ABOUT AUBURN (11-1, 10-2 ATS): Malzahn has overseen the biggest turnaround in the nation after the Tigers went 3-9 a year ago but have returned to the national prominence they enjoyed when he was the offensive coordinator. Tre Mason, the SEC's leading rusher with 1,317 yards and 18 TDs, and dual threat quarterback Nick Marshall (1,627 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs; 922 rushing yards, 10 TDs) lead an offense that ranks fifth in rushing (318.3) and 15th in total yards (491). The Tigers have been less impressive defensively, but they held Alabama to seven points in the second half.

TRENDS:

* Missouri is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall.
* Auburn is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a SU win.
* Under is 4-1 in Missouri's last five games overall.
* Over is 7-1 in Auburn's last eight games following a SU win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Malzahn and Missouri's Gary Pinkel are among the three finalists for the Maxwell Coach of the Year Award, along with Duke's David Cutcliffe.

2. With a win, Pinkel (101-62) would pass Don Faurot as Missouri's all-time winningest coach.

3. Auburn has scored 30 points or more in eight straight contests and has won 87 consecutive games when hitting the 30-point plateau, while Missouri is one of three teams in the nation to hold all of its opponents to 28 points or fewer.

 

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Big Ten Championship What bettors need to know

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan State Spartans (+5, 51.5)

Game will be payed at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana.

Ohio State had one major obstacle toward its quest for a national title removed last week when Alabama lost to Auburn. The second-ranked Buckeyes can increase their odds of a berth in the BCS Championship Game dramatically Saturday when they meet No. 9 Michigan State in the Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Ohio State has won a school-record 24 straight games but needed a failed two-point try in the final seconds last week to escape Michigan with a one-point victory.

Despite the Buckeyes’ long winning streak, perhaps no team in the conference is playing as well as the Spartans, who have won eight in a row. Michigan State became the first Big Ten team to win all of its league games by at least 10 points since the conference went to an eight-game schedule in 1971. Although the Spartans could end up in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1988 regardless of Saturday’s outcome, they could assure themselves a school-record 12th win with a victory.

TV: 8:17 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: The line opened with the Buckeyes as 5.5-point faves and have been bet down to -5. The total hasn't moved fro 51.5.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (12-0, 6-5-1 ATS): Carlos Hyde is the first running back under coach Urban Meyer to rush for more than 1,000 yards in a season and needs 33 more to become the seventh player in school history to run for 3,000 in a career. Quarterback Braxton Miller trails Hyde by 90 rushing yards and is also 166 total yards shy of joining Art Schlichter as the only Buckeyes to reach 8,000 in their career. Miller and Hyde have combined to rush for 1,070 yards and 13 touchdowns over the past three games against Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (11-1, 7-4-1 ATS): The Spartans boast the nation’s top rushing, total and pass efficiency defense and complement it with the fifth-best turnover margin (plus-15) in FBS. They are also second nationally in third-down defense (28.7 percent) and fourth in scoring defense (11.8 points per game)."It's by far the best defense I've ever been a part of. It's got to rival the best defenses ever at Michigan State – forget the last seven years," defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi said.

TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Ohio State is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Both teams went 8-0 in conference play, marking just the second time since 1943 that two Big Ten teams finished with perfect league marks.

2. Michigan State has kept five out of last six opponents out of the end zone.

3. Meyer notched his first conference win as Ohio State coach when these teams last met in September 2012.

 

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ACC Championship What bettors need to know

Duke Blue Devils vs Florida State Seminoles (-29, 62)

Game will be played at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina.

Duke’s first appearance in the ACC championship game may be the feel-good story of the year, but a Blue Devils victory over top-ranked Florida State on Saturday in Charlotte, N.C., would rank as the upset of the decade. The Seminoles, who ascended to the No. 1 ranking after Alabama lost at Auburn last weekend, average 53.7 points per game and are one victory from playing in the BCS championship game. Quarterback Jameis Winston is a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy, averaging a touchdown pass every 9.1 pass attempts for a Florida State offense that has scored 50 or more points seven times in 12 games.

The Seminoles also are strong defensively, allowing a national-low 11 points per contest. The No. 20 ranked Blue Devils, who have won eight in a row, were picked to finish last in the Coastal Division and are heavy underdogs Saturday, but have come from behind to win their past four contests. “Playing the No. 1 team in the country, there’s no better opportunity to showcase your talents and showcase what you’ve been working for all your life and basically what you dreamed about,” Duke quarterback Anthony Boone told reporters earlier this week.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: The Seminoles opened at 28.5-point faves and have been bet up to -29. The total opened at 61.5 and has moved up slightly to 62.

WEATHER: There is a 68 percent chance of rain with a nine mph wind blowing across the field.

ABOUT DUKE (10-2, 10-2 ATS): Boone passed for 274 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 27-25 victory at North Carolina, clinching the program’s first 10-win season and giving Duke a chance to win the conference title for the first time since 1989. Brandon Connette ranks second in the ACC in rushing touchdowns. David Helton, Kelby Brown and Jeremy Cash are first, second and third in the conference in tackles.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (12-0, 10-2 ATS): Winston, the ACC rookie of the year, has fashioned a fabulous freshman season despite sexual assault allegations
that have made headlines in recent weeks. Winston has passed for 3,490 yards and 35 touchdowns, and Devonta Freeman is fourth in the conference with 852 rushing yards. The Seminoles allow 271 yards per contest, second in the ACC.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Duke is 0-5 ATS in its last five meetings.
* Florida State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Florida State has never lost to Duke in 18 previous meetings, averaging 50.1 points per contest and winning by an average of 34.6 points.

2. Duke and Florida State played four common opponents (Pittsburgh, North Carolina State, Miami, Wake Forest); the Blue Devils went 3-1 and won by an average of 14.3 points, while the Seminoles went 4-0 and won by an average of 35.8 points.

3. The Seminoles have won 13 ACC championships; a victory Saturday would tie Florida State with Clemson for the most ACC titles.

 

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Pac-12 Championship What bettors need to know

Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 56)

It takes a mentally strong team to defeat its biggest rival by 37 points and then hold back on the smiles. "This was great tonight, but it’s not the one we’re after," Arizona State coach Todd Graham said, echoing his players' sentiments, after his team dismantled Arizona last Saturday. "The one we’re after is next week." Graham, of course, is referring to Saturday's Pac-12 championship game in which the 13th-ranked Sun Devils will host No. 10 Stanford with the winner heading to the Rose Bowl.

"We had ups and downs; we had bumps and bruises," noted Stanford coach David Shaw, "but when you look up, we're where we wanted to be - a 10-win team in the Pac-12 championship game, and it's going to be a heck of a game." In order to reach their second straight Rose Bowl, the Cardinal must defeat the Sun Devils for the second time this season. Stanford edged visiting Arizona State, 42-28, back on Sept. 21 as Ty Montgomery scored two first-half touchdowns to help the Cardinal to a 29-0 halftime lead in a game that, at the time, certainly did not feel like a Pac-12 championship preview.

TV: 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Arizona State opened -3.5 and is now -3. The total has held firm at 56.

WEATHER: There is a 55 percent chance of rain as the game progresses. Wind will blow across the field at 11 mph.

ABOUT STANFORD (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12): The Cardinal boast an impressive resume that includes victories over Washington, UCLA, Oregon State, Oregon and Notre Dame, in addition to their earlier win against Arizona State. In last Saturday's 27-20 triumph over the Fighting Irish, Tyler Gaffney ran for 189 yards and a touchdown while Wayne Lyons had a pair of fourth-quarter interceptions to seal the win. Stanford ranks 13th in the country in points allowed (19 per game) and has yielded no more than 20 points in any of its last six contests.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (10-2, 8-1): The Sun Devils improved to 7-0 at home last week with a convincing 58-21 victory over Arizona, as they led 30-7 at the half and cruised despite the absence of leading rusher Marion Grice (leg). D.J. Foster led the way with 124 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helping Arizona State improve its scoring output for the fourth straight game (20, 30, 38 and 58). The Sun Devils may need a sharper performance out of Taylor Kelly (13-of-25, including an interception) if they are going to reach their first Rose Bowl since 1997.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Arizona State.
* Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Cardinal are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Grice, who has 996 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, is doubtful to face the Cardinal.

2. Arizona State DT Will Sutton was named the league's Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight season on Tuesday, while Graham was honored as the Pac-12's Coach of the Year.

3. This is the second time this season that Stanford and Arizona State will meet while both ranked in the top 25. Prior to the 2013, that had never happened before in the all-time series, which the Sun Devils lead 16-12.

 

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

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